Malaysia kekal kukuh dalam sektor solar meskipun berdepan duti import tinggi Amerika Syarikat (AS), berikutan tumpuan tempatan pada tenaga bersih dan National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). Ikuti kupasan di Niaga AWANI tentang peluang pertumbuhan dan pelaburan baharu dalam landskap solar negara.
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00:00Welcome back to Niagawani. Moving on, a ripple of confidence is sweeping through Malaysia's solar industry, even as the United States imposes import duties of up to 3,521% on panels from Southeast Asia and local firms focusing on engineering, procurement, construction and project development, rather than upstream manufacturing, remain insulated from these tariffs.
00:22Backed by the National Energy Transition Roadmaps, or NETR, push towards 70% renewable energy by 2050, domestic demand is surging, major clean energy investments are lining up and foreign investors continue eyeing Malaysia as a regional hub for green growth.
00:38Some say challenges still lie in scaling infrastructure, navigating trade dynamics and leveraging Malaysia's ASEAN role.
00:45And we are going to take a look at all of it now, and our guest is ready in the studio with me right now, which is Ko Chuan Zen, the Group CEO and also co-founder of PlusX Energy.
00:54Thank you so much for joining me, Chuan Zen, this morning.
00:57First of all, before we go deep into the discussion, help us understand how is the tariff announced by Donald Trump on 2nd April will, in a way, affect the solar industry in Malaysia?
01:10Yeah. Yeah. So for this President Trump, this announcement really brings a lot of different impact.
01:18So I would like to say, for this solar industry globally, actually since two years back, they have already facing the challenge of the supply actually is over the demand.
01:31That's why since last year, before Trump, they increased the tariff.
01:34For most manufacturers, actually right now, I would say majority of them, they are from China.
01:39They have already reduced their production line and also have some of like layoffs to lower down their production in order to make sure the solar panels on the demand side and on the supply side is about the same.
01:52Because in the past few years, actually, the solar price dropped a lot.
01:55That's why I would say this year onward, actually beginning of this year, before the Trumps, they announced this tariff high, actually the price has already slightly increased.
02:05So right now, after the President Trump has announced for the tariff rate, what we will see is the reductions of the productions from a solar panel globally.
02:18Obviously, this gap is bigger or if let's say all the solar panels couldn't import to the US market, the gap is bigger.
02:29So which you get is bigger right now, it will be mainly, we'll see how will this impact on the global solar industry in terms of the raw material price and also solar panel price.
02:37And for what we forecast and also for what we see is, since the production has already reduced, however, definitely the US is quite a big market.
02:46But I believe for most of the manufacturers, they will be able to, mainly from China, they will be able to react and also to ensure maybe the solar panel price, it will remain or maybe slightly increase,
02:58but it won't really like further drop further like what happened before because this is some kind of a risk control that most of the manufacturers globally, they have already foresee.
03:06So if we go back to Malaysia, what happened in Malaysia for the whole ecosystem, for upstream, definitely we all know Malaysia used to be the world's largest manufacturing country who produced a lot of solar panels.
03:18But since last year, we see there's a lot of these, a couple of them, the Chinese manufacturers who set up factories in Malaysia, they already moved up from Malaysia.
03:27It's because they found there's no much difference.
03:30If you're in Malaysia, I mean in China, every one of them actually, they will get impacted by the imports of the tax.
03:37Correct.
03:37If, let's say, they import the US market.
03:39So that will be mainly impact on the Chinese manufacturers who, those manufacturers who are mainly on the Chinese, they're mainly from China.
03:48But if we look into Malaysia companies, most of us actually, we are in the value chain of the downstream, which is on the EPC side, project management, and also as a project developer.
03:59Okay.
03:59So on this value chain of players, actually, in Malaysia, we are using the product from manufacturers.
04:07So I wouldn't see there's much impact over here.
04:09It's because if we look into the whole downstream market, it will eventually be building on the energy, clean energy infrastructure like solar power plants, battery power plants, and so on.
04:20So if you look into Malaysia, this year, actually, by the middle of the year, ST, which is Energy Commission, Shurohanjia Tanaga, they have already announced they will have a tariff adjustment, which means the energy price actually will go up for most of the energy consumer like us.
04:36For 100%.
04:36Yeah.
04:37So it definitely will increase.
04:39At the same time, for the country, we still, right now, there's a lot of FDI foreign investors who are looking into Southeast Asia region, and Malaysia is one of them.
04:48So besides data center, there's a lot of other different industries that are looking to invest in Malaysia.
04:53So with the energy increase, and for those foreign investors who are coming in, they are also looking for clean energy.
04:58So I would say, because of all this, I would say the demand is still there, which is investors still there, energy demand is still there, and then Malaysia, we have to increase the tariff rate.
05:07So all this situation, actually, it will also still have to, I would say the demand for clean energy is still there.
05:13Yeah, the demand for clean energy is still there.
05:15So that's why I wouldn't see Malaysia companies who are more focused in terms of EPC and also on the project investment developer side, it will have a lot of impact.
05:25So what we probably will face impact will be on the uncertainty on the currency, on the US dollar currency, and also the solar panel price, it will be probably a little bit uncertain.
05:36Yeah, but what we foresee, it will probably remain, or maybe slight increase.
05:40Yeah, so that would be the situation.
05:42Can you actually forecast about how many percent it will increase?
05:47Because we know the demand and the interest for installation of solar to their houses, our houses is increasing as well.
05:55So about how many percent can you forecast for us?
05:57If let's say on the TNB tariff rate, I think it's something which, based on what TNB has announced, we know there will be some certain adjustment there.
06:08So I think the best is, let's wait for that.
06:11But I think definitely, easily for 5 percent onwards, yeah, that will be the numbers where we will see it will be increased.
06:19So I think, however, something good is, besides the tariff increase, actually there's an alternative solution, which is on the clean energy side.
06:26So to further move on, is Malaysia, right now, since last year, there's a new policy will come out for most of our energy consumer,
06:35which is about the same timing when TNB announced they are going to increase tariff rate.
06:40And this new policy is a policy, it's a new upgraded policy for self-consumption.
06:46So which means for a factory who are 100% used for TNB right now, or maybe they can install solar on their roof right now,
06:54they will have a chance to go for 100% renewable energy by installing solar system and battery storage on their roof and also on the ground.
07:04If let's say there are a factory around the area, there's a land which is nearby and also just next to their land or within their permits.
07:10So this will be able to help them, able to, previously there's a cap, the limit, for you to install renewable energy,
07:18which is 85% of your maximum demand.
07:20So last year, end of last year, which is on December, they just removed this cap.
07:26So which means without this cap, you can go for like almost 100% of renewable energy.
07:30So this will become, clean energy with solar plus battery has become an alternative energy source for most of the manufacturers out there
07:37who purely just stick with the utility tariff grid and also the source in the past.
07:46So I would say this will make the business more vibrant in terms of an alternative solution
07:50because right now with solar and battery, you will be able to make your clean energy able to store and for use.
07:56And battery technology actually is something quite new.
07:58It's just like solar in about 13 years back.
08:00So the benefit of battery, besides make the whole building energy supply and also on the demand side, is much more stabilised.
08:08Secondly, they can bring a lot of more energy saving for the building.
08:11Just imagine.
08:12For a factory today, they will be able to use a battery storage to charge.
08:17Because usually for a factory, they will have an off-paid tariff and also the paid tariff, which is much higher.
08:22So they will be able to charge during the off-paid period, which is the tariff in the lower rate at night,
08:28and then to decharge it for the peak period, which is in the daytime.
08:31So this will be the first advantage by battery storage technology.
08:35Secondly, for most of the factory, there is a maximum demand,
08:39which means our utility company, they will charge when you have a surcharge on your energy spike.
08:44So they will pick the highest one and then they will charge you a fee there, which is called maximum demand charges.
08:48So when you have battery technology, you will be able to shift this maximum demand by the charge of battery,
08:55which is stored by solar, or let's say during the nighttime, to offset some of those paid savings for the maximum demand.
09:03So I would say definitely we know the whole country, Malaysia, is one of the cheapest in the region or let's say in the world.
09:12So despite of there's some increase, but at least there's some alternative energy solution,
09:17which commercially, financially, and technology-wise point of view is something workable and also feasible.
09:24And you mentioned earlier that Malaysian companies right now is mainly focused on downstream, downstream sort of activities.
09:29So how can actually Malaysia leverage this strategy or strength to become a regional leader in clean energy solutions
09:37and beyond just surviving external trade tensions right now, like the U.S. import duties?
09:41So how can we actually leverage this so-called strength?
09:45Yeah, so I would say since Malaysia right now, in terms of in South Asia country,
09:52compared with a lot of countries right now, it's under the limelight in terms of renewable energy expansion
09:57due to the political stability, compared with the rest of other countries,
10:02due to the clean energy policy is there, especially under the NATR,
10:06as what we had mentioned during the opening.
10:09Yeah, so right now, besides the Philippines, Malaysia is one of these, I would say,
10:14hottest markets in the Southeast Asia.
10:17So this is also able to attract more foreign investors coming into Malaysia.
10:22And for local players, I would say you have a lot of combination,
10:27like EPC company combined with a project investor, the developer together,
10:32to further develop for all these challenges.
10:34Because we do have this, besides self-consumption, there's new policy,
10:39we do have this corporate renewable energy supply scheme, which is CREST,
10:45which is able to, for us to able to generate renewable energy power,
10:50and then to sell through the grid to a factory, or let's say to any,
10:55these industrial plants, let's say in a different region.
10:58For example, the plants at Johor, like data center,
11:00and then we build a solar farm at Kedah, so we will be able to sell energy to them.
11:04So this will make Malaysia that, in terms of local energy infrastructures,
11:10development, the business activity, still able to drive a country economy.
11:14Yeah, because if let's say upstream, we are not the technology owner on the solar panel side,
11:21and then just purely to provide a space for the foreign investor to produce their product
11:27and to sell to the US market.
11:31So Malaysia is probably just as a landlord and also some job opportunity.
11:35But in terms of a real economy drive, downstream is a key for us.
11:39And downstream, the strength of Malaysia EPC as a developer,
11:43is something what we see able to scale to the different regions as well,
11:46like Philippines and also like upcoming Indonesia and some other country.
11:51But are there possible other challenges when it comes to regulatory, financial,
11:57or perhaps technical that will stand in the way of this mass adoption of solar?
12:03And for example, is Malaysia actually at risk of being used as a transshipment hub to bypass tariffs?
12:10And how could this impact the long term of this whole ecosystem of solar?
12:14Yeah, so definitely Malaysia will lose some of the income in terms of solar panel manufacturers.
12:23They will no longer just look for Malaysia.
12:25Yeah, so there's a lot of different places which they will look for that.
12:28But at the same time, I will see there's a lot of different alternative industrial investors
12:34who are looking to set up their factory in Malaysia.
12:36Definitely, they were able to fill the gap.
12:38So that's on the upstream part.
12:39If we're looking to downstream in terms of how can this Malaysia still able to grow a renewable energy industry
12:46without much impact from a US tariff rate, the tariff incidence.
12:50Definitely, in terms of the policy side, I will say right now Malaysia is much better than before
12:56in terms of we have new self-consumption.
12:58We have NAMM there, LSS 5 Plus and LSS 6 is all upcoming.
13:03And also for CREST, all this policy is actually there.
13:06And also there's a CREAM.
13:07CREAM is for residential houses that you will be able just to list your house out.
13:12For some corporate nearby your house within this five kilometer,
13:16you're able to list your house to install solar and to sell energy to them.
13:20So actually this will make the whole energy industry more vibrant
13:23and also liberate the whole energy industry.
13:26So I don't see much challenges in terms of policy.
13:29Probably just need to take time to implement it.
13:31And also the authority in terms of approval, how to streamline the whole approval process,
13:36that will be the key.
13:38Technology-wise, Malaysia, in terms of country grid,
13:41we can absorb about 12 gigawatts of solar energy.
13:46So in the first half, which is 6 gigawatts of solar energy,
13:49it's just purely solar energy itself.
13:51For the second half of 6 gigawatts of solar energy,
13:54we have to come with solar and battery.
13:57This is for the grid stabilization, for the country national grid security.
14:02Because if you just purely write on solar, it all depends on the weather.
14:06So your grid, in terms of energy demand and the supply side, it will be not stable.
14:11So with battery storage there, right now this is a demand.
14:14And definitely there's a lot of detailed engineering and regulation stuff
14:18with something that we have to do.
14:19So for example, Plus Energy, we are doing the first battery energy storage solution
14:25at the solar farm site.
14:26That's the first one that connects to the UTT grid.
14:29So definitely we have to go through like with energy commissions, with TNB,
14:33to make sure the whole grid in terms of design and also testing commissioning
14:37for the grid injections is something that are able to provide the stability injection
14:43and the connection to the grid level.
14:45So I will see more projects like what we are doing right now, it will keep on coming.
14:51And probably I will put a year, probably about 12 months to 18 months as a learning period
14:56for most people to adopt and get used to solar.
14:59This is a battery storage.
15:00It's just like solar energy happened in about 13 years back.
15:03So once this stabilised in terms of engineering requirement,
15:07definitely it was standardised in terms of product requirement
15:10and also let's say like bomb bomb safety requirement in terms of fire hazard.
15:14How can we minimise it?
15:15It will be stabilised.
15:16So I will be able to see all these things like battery energy storage as a new technology.
15:21You will be able to scale and also getting more common,
15:24even though to the household area as well.
15:27So on a financial point of view, definitely right now for battery energy storage investment
15:31and also plus solar together, the payback period, it could be slightly longer,
15:38probably like about five years or maybe some can be like about seven years.
15:42Yeah, I mean, when you have a tax incentive, maybe you can be about like five years
15:46or payback periods.
15:47So definitely right now, I will see along the years when this economic scale
15:53and also when this battery energy storage price become cheaper,
15:57definitely you will be able to reach like what solar is able to achieve today
16:01like about within three years.
16:03That will be your payback period.
16:04Yeah.
16:04So I'm quite positive in terms of looking into this
16:07because we have went through this cycle in 13 years back
16:11when we deployed solar as a new technology for the whole market.
16:15So right now, at least there are some excitement for the whole industry
16:18to embrace the new technology.
16:20Now we're more prepared, I can say.
16:22Yeah, I will say definitely we are more prepared
16:23because we have went through that before in terms of infrastructure,
16:26in terms of regulations, in terms of engineering know-how, we are all there.
16:31I mean, this is a very interesting conversation to talk about,
16:34but unfortunately we only have one minute left.
16:36And perhaps before we end this discussion,
16:39like you mentioned earlier, Malaysia has among the lowest tariff imposed,
16:45which is 24% among other countries in the same region.
16:48But what if in the future the tariff rate is prolonged
16:52and at the same time it's increased perhaps?
16:54So what can you say about that on the future outlooks?
16:58I would say definitely we wish the tariff impact for Malaysia
17:03is always the lowest one.
17:04Then it's where we can have more competitive in terms of the country.
17:09We can attract more FDI,
17:11or even though for me in Malaysia that we are able to impose
17:13to the rest of the country.
17:14So I would say it's pretty important still for us to really select
17:19which industry to focus, which industry, the country that we focus.
17:25But if let's say the whole global supply chain right now
17:28has totally changed because all this tariff change changed.
17:31So in terms of we have probably we have to choose some other country
17:35or let's say domestic market,
17:37how can we increase the percentage of domestic market
17:40for Malaysia that are able to self-consume
17:43for most of this production
17:45and also within the country
17:48instead of to rely on some certain country of export.
17:51I think it's a long way to go
17:52for us to refigure out in terms of a whole ecosystem
17:56when the global supply chain has totally changed recently.
17:59And we can focus on the mid-term.
18:01Mid-term and also short-term solutions for now.
18:04And that's the sharing by Kuo Chuan Zen,
18:08the co-founder of PlusX Energy.
18:10Thank you so much for coming all the way to our studio this morning.
18:13And I hope this conversation,
18:15whole discussion also,
18:19discussion or interview can be found
18:21on all of our social media platforms
18:22and that includes astro1e.com.
18:24Thank you so much.