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00:00And it's time to celebrate with Major League Baseball season, which, again, we're one month down.
00:04We see a lot of teams here that we expected to be good.
00:06Some teams trying to fight and say, hey, let's get our respect.
00:09Other teams like the Colorado Rockies are exactly who we thought we are.
00:14And that's from Dennis Green saying, yeah, they're a really bad team.
00:16But if we look at the odds to open the Major League Baseball season,
00:19which means opening day of who we thought were going to win the World Series,
00:22at least the Fan Blue Sportsbook, pricing those odds.
00:25Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Phillies, Mets, and Orioles here.
00:29So if we start with that equation, you said Dodgers, yeah, really good.
00:32The Braves starting to get it together.
00:34The Yankees having a good season.
00:36And Aaron Judge hitting over 400 in the month of April.
00:38I mean, get out of town.
00:39What does he have in store for the rest of the spring and the summer?
00:42The Phillies hanging around.
00:43The Mets, hey, look at that.
00:45And then the Dodgers, or excuse me, the Orioles.
00:47What is up with the Orioles, man?
00:49Get it together, Baltimore.
00:52Call me crazy, Donnie, here.
00:54But as I'm looking at this list here, should we just engrave the trophy with the Dodgers at this point?
01:00At that price?
01:01Should we just engrave?
01:02I mean, what else is there to do at this point, really?
01:05Yeah.
01:06That's it.
01:07By the way, like the Dodgers themselves, and talk about like the landscape of Major League Baseball,
01:11because I saw an article got retweeted on X, and I find it interesting.
01:15Like, can you imagine a sport in America that has the Dodgers just like a $300-plus-million-dollar payroll
01:22in this major sport playing a team with like a $60-million-dollar payroll?
01:26So we'll start here.
01:27Like, the Dodgers, you're right, are the best team.
01:29As long as they don't get devastating injuries all the way through, they will probably win it.
01:34But how do we get so far down this rabbit hole where you have a team that's like 10 times the buying power of another team?
01:41How did we get here, and how does it last?
01:43Because basically, you saw what the Dodgers did last year.
01:46Spent even more money this year, deferred salaries, and if they win it again this year,
01:49are we headed for a shutdown because of how good the Dodgers are and how they are manipulating the salary cap?
01:56Well, what we're getting to the point, Donnie, is that in a 162-game season,
02:02we have such a loaded team that can afford more than any other team that we are praying guys get hurt
02:09in order to give somebody else a chance that, you know, all of a sudden somebody goes down with an injury
02:14or a couple of guys with a pitcher.
02:16Like, you have to actually hope for terrible things to happen to that staff in order.
02:22Otherwise, if they're healthy, 162 games, not only are they going to win more games than anybody else,
02:27they're going to run the table and win everything, Donnie.
02:30They are that much better than everybody else talent-wise.
02:34Yes, and also I always explain to people as well, it's like, hey, look, the Dodgers opening day
02:39are the favorites to win it.
02:40They have the most talent.
02:41They're supposed to win it.
02:42But understand, their ownership group does not care about payroll,
02:45does not care about going into the luxury tax thresholds this year or getting any penalties,
02:49has the best prospects in baseball every single year because of how much they invest in their farm system,
02:54in the Latino community there, in the Mexican community,
02:56and they always have the best scouts in there taking the best talent out.
02:59So they can make trades at the deadline to get all-star pitchers and all-star counterpoints here.
03:04It's interesting to me, like, where we line up in the future, where, again, baseball is a good business.
03:08Like, the Marlins can go out there with a $60 million payroll, not get three fans,
03:11and be one of the most profitable teams in the league.
03:14That's an issue at that point.
03:15But you can't fault the Dodgers for spending money, but I think in the next couple years,
03:19you might be looking at a reckoning if the way they spend money continually looks like
03:23it's going to be an easy victory World Series after World Series, and we'll watch that play out.
03:27But if we are looking at the World Series market, Joe, right now, the Dodgers,
03:31that plus-240 price, well ahead of the New York Yankees, the New York Mets, the Braves,
03:35and the Philadelphia Phillies.
03:36If you were looking at teams, based on price points here at the FanDuel Sportsbook,
03:40outside of the Dodgers, who do you lean towards?
03:45Yeah, well, that's the whole thing, right?
03:47The Braves, the Mets, and the Phillies are going to devour one another.
03:52Is that fair to say?
03:53So, and I don't think we've seen the Braves best yet because they are still getting guys
03:58working guys back from injury.
04:01So, the Braves, I think, not a great start to the season, but given the circumstances,
04:07I think they've rebounded well.
04:09The Mets are on fire, but the question is, did the Mets bullpen overperform in the first month?
04:16Can we count on the Mets to keep this going through the rest of the season?
04:21If not, I think you've got to look at maybe the Cubs or the Padres as a long shot opportunity
04:27here, Donnie.
04:28Yeah, the Mets are interesting to me, too, because they're playing great baseball right
04:31now, and you can't take that away from them.
04:33But also, it's not as if, like, when I look at the Phillies rotation, like, you have names
04:37up there that say, okay, the expectations are high.
04:39You look at the Mets, and again, I like Clay Holmes.
04:41We still have Clay Holmes, Tyler McGill, Griffin Canning, David Peterson.
04:45Kodai Senga hasn't been all that great as well, where you wonder where that's going to fall
04:49off.
04:49Now, granted, a couple guys like Frankie Montas and Sean Manea that you're waiting to
04:52get back, but it's not as if you're waiting to get back Clayton Kershaw in his prime,
04:55or Roger Clemens in his prime, or Garrett Cole in his prime, non-injured here for the
04:59New York Yankees.
05:00I'm interested to see where that goes.
05:01But there's a lot of talent.
05:02But the one thing we do know about Major League Baseball season, Joe, it really is play your
05:06best baseball in the month of September and get hot for the playoff run, and maybe that's
05:10what some of these teams can do.
05:11The Phillies certainly made a brand of that.
05:13You don't want to burn out too early, but the Dodgers, are they ever going to burn out?
05:16Like, everybody gets up to the plate expecting extra base hits and doubles and home runs,
05:20and away they go.
05:21And they're not even playing their best baseball right now.
05:24And still, we feel it's an easy walk away to a championship.
05:27More Major League Baseball talk in hour number two.
05:30This is The Early Line.
05:32It's a bunched-up American League right now at the top of the standings as we re-rack
05:37the odds market here at the FanDuel Sportsbook to who could possibly win the AL pennant.
05:41Before we get to the odds themselves, let's take a look at the standings.
05:45And if you woke up today like, ah, it's probably going to be the Astros, Yankees, you know,
05:49one of those power-laden teams.
05:51How about the Detroit Tigers?
05:52Best record in the American League at 19-12.
05:54You know who's in second right now?
05:55That's the Seattle Mariners at 18-12, followed by the Yankees, Guardians, Astros, and the Boston Red Sox.
06:01The Kansas City Royals at 16-15, the last of the teams above .500.
06:05Below .500, that's the Rays, Jays, Twins, Angels, Orioles at 12-18.
06:11And there are those Chicago White Sox at 7-23.
06:14So looking at the standings, that's how it plays out.
06:17But the odds market, Joe Ranieri, just a little bit different here.
06:20The New York Yankees sit there at a plus-310 price.
06:22The Tigers at a 7-1.
06:23The Rangers, 7-1, followed by the Red Sox, 7-50.
06:26It's early.
06:27We're one month in.
06:28But how about those Tigers and Mariners?
06:30First place here.
06:32And again, I think through one month, Donnie, I don't think there's a ton of surprises thus far.
06:38Don't forget, Detroit was a very trendy underdog this year, right?
06:44To be much better than they were a year ago, especially with, you know,
06:48Scooble leading that rotation there, the way they can hit the ball.
06:51There was a lot of love for the Tigers.
06:54I think the Rangers have underperformed, to say the least, as they certainly aren't hitting
06:59and are dealing with some injuries here.
07:01It's not been a great start for the Rangers.
07:04And the Red Sox, we talked about it earlier.
07:06Red Sox, another one of those trendy picks preseason.
07:10And so far, I think the jury is still out on what the Red Sox ceiling truly is this year.
07:19They got some talent, but are they going to put it together for a 162-game season?
07:24I still have my doubts with it.
07:27How do we feel about the Mariners, too?
07:28Plus 850.
07:29Again, these aren't the World Series prices.
07:30This is just to win the American League, which means you have to get to the World Series,
07:33then win it after that.
07:3418-12 in the season.
07:35One thing we've always known about Seattle, they will have that young, talented front-line
07:40pitching, but the hitting sort of doesn't live up to it.
07:43On a day-to-day basis, I check out some of those numbers here for the Mariners, looking
07:46better and better.
07:47Is that a fluke that they're up there higher?
07:49They'll be in that wild-card race, but you maybe just don't trust them to actually win
07:52the pennant once they get there.
07:53We're always taught to believe, Joe, that once you get to the playoff, pitching does win.
07:57Well, it does, and they better hope to get Logan Gilbert back healthy, too, who's on
08:03the IL, who was by far the ace of that staff.
08:08So, you know, he's got some elbow issues there, inflamed elbow issues.
08:12They're hoping a little bit of rest here, and he'll be fine.
08:15But that would be a huge loss if it's anything more than what they're hoping it is.
08:20But you hit it as a Reina.
08:21Cal Raleigh is hitting the absolute cover off the ball.
08:25You've got guys can do it.
08:28But the one thing we can count on Seattle, Donnie, is that come the trade deadline, they're
08:33going to be maybe one pitcher, they're going to be one player away, and they're never going
08:37to go out and spend any money to reinforce them and give them a shot of actually competing
08:42with everyone else.
08:43And here's the thing, too.
08:44You have to look at the pennant.
08:45It's not best regular season, which means like after September, okay, that's the pennant.
08:50No, the pennant is you make it into the playoffs, you win the American League in the playoffs,
08:53and then you advance to the World Series.
08:55The reason I bring that up is you take a look at the Baltimore Orioles, so disappointing.
08:59And second to last right now in the standings for the American League is those Orioles,
09:0412-18 on the season, 3-7 in their last 10 games.
09:08But you look at the price point there, it still is a 14-1, which is manageable.
09:12Do we feel that the Orioles are just underplaying what their capabilities are so far this season?
09:17Or is that 12-18 really a microcosm of this team really isn't that good?
09:21Well, they've also got decimated their starting rotation with injuries.
09:26I mean, this is about as makeshift a rotation as we have seen.
09:31And the bats, they're just not hitting like they did a year ago to compensate for the lack
09:38of starting pitching.
09:39They have been getting killed early in games.
09:42And then the bullpen is not good enough to be able to hold anybody, and the bats aren't hitting.
09:47It's been a recipe for disaster for Baltimore.
09:50You hope that they can get some guys healthy, they can get them back in there, and things
09:55will level out.
09:56But right now, the story for them has been that all those injuries to the starting rotation,
10:00it's just not been a good scene right now in Baltimore.
10:05The Yankees are the prohibitive favorite right now at Fandle.
10:08That's a plus 310 price to take down the pennant.
10:10So I'm going to ask you this question.
10:11Would it be right now, Joe, the Yankees or the field for you in the American League?
10:16Oof, it's still the Yankees to me, although rolling out Carlos Carrasco every fifth day
10:24doesn't really make me warm and fuzzy saying that here.
10:28But the reality is you've got a possible triple crown winner.
10:32I mean, judges out of his mind, everybody else around him is also hitting.
10:38I mean, they are truly showing the Bronx Bomber name here.
10:43And, you know, maybe you don't need all of that pitching if you're going to score 11 runs
10:46a game, Donnie, which the Yankees are more than capable of.
10:50So, yeah, I would still lean towards the Yankees over the field.
10:55But my goodness, I got to see something else from the start.
10:58I need another starting pitcher somewhere along the line here at the trade deadline.
11:03Yeah, we always talk about like contenders, Joe, and pretenders out there.
11:06And again, there are some quality baseball teams here in the American League.
11:09But when you look at the Yankees, like, well, I don't think they're that good.
11:11And I always play that off the same.
11:12Well, who else are you going to pick then, Donnie?
11:14It's like, oh, do I want the Red Sox or the Astros or the Guardians?
11:17Like, it does feel like the Yankees are clear there as long as they can stay somewhat healthy
11:21after getting that start to the season, which is losing Garrett Cole.
11:24So, if there was one contender that you feel can turn and give the Yankees issues here
11:29down the stretch in Major League Baseball season or possibly independent,
11:32who would maybe be a contender or two that you look at and say, you know what?
11:34Maybe not playing great right now, but they might be there in September.
11:37I'm still a believer in the Rangers.
11:41I think they certainly, I mean, a couple of years, you know, what are they?
11:44A couple of seasons removed from a championship here.
11:48They've got, you know, a great manager in Bochy who's been around the block.
11:52I think if they can get healthy and then get some guys back, then yes,
11:57I think the Rangers would be a team that I'll look out of the West,
12:00more so than the Astros or Seattle for sure.
12:03Yeah, we'll see the Kansas City Royals here, 16-15 on the season,
12:07just above .500, 8-2, however, in their last 10 games.
12:11The Twins underperforming at 13-18.
12:13You should just pencil them in as they're supposed to be the favorites in the Central.
12:17The Oras we worry about.
12:18The White Sox we're not worried about at all.
12:19But one of those teams that I do think is fun on a day-to-day basis,
12:22and we'll talk a little bit later about them as well, the A's.
12:25Not because they're above .500, 16-15.
12:28They actually have a pretty talented 1-9 roster.
12:31The pitching, eh, but the ballpark they play in,
12:33absolutely spectacular to handicap on a day-to-day basis
12:36because we used to never get runs in Oakland.
12:38Now we get runs every day, it feels like, in Sacramento.
12:41But the Yankees, certainly the favorites,
12:43even if they're not technically in first place right now in the American League.
12:47More talk next, the awards markets.
12:49Let's get caught up right here on The Early Line.
12:52Quick little chat here to talk some MVP action in the American League
12:55and across Major League Baseball as we focus on some of the AL awards.
12:59But if we did have awards here on the Sports Grid Network, Joe Ranieri,
13:02who would be most improved, like, on air?
13:05Like, who would you give that to?
13:06Any thoughts?
13:08Oh, that would be –
13:10Yeah.
13:11I'm just going to opt not to say anything.
13:13I'm not going to say anything.
13:15But when in doubt, I always go with Scotty Wetzel.
13:18Can't go wrong with Mr. Opposite Picks.
13:21That's – I'll just lay it out there.
13:23I don't know if it's because I feel sad for him or what,
13:25but, yes, I would go with Opposite Picks.
13:28Most improved for me has to be Kevin Walsh, Joe,
13:31because when I came to the network, struggling on air,
13:34was very, you know, like a little bit rough around the edges,
13:37getting in and out of breaks, took him under my wing here,
13:39and I think now is the time that we can actually acknowledge that.
13:42He's turned into a pretty good on-air host,
13:44but it was rough for a while.
13:46Most improved talent on air at the Sports Grid Network, Kevin Walsh.
13:50We'll get him that award a little bit later, maybe a gift certificate,
13:52something like that, to take the fiancé out to eat and have some fun.
13:55But that's my award here.
13:56But let's get to the real awards market.
13:57Is it already over in the American League?
13:59Is it?
14:00Aaron Judge, minus 600.
14:02Joe, April, May, June, July, August, September, into parts of October.
14:08That's how long the Major League Baseball season is.
14:10We have a minus 600 MVP after one month of the season.
14:14Talk to me about that price point.
14:16And also, is it value?
14:18Because we took the Cam Ward.
14:19Hey, minus 1,000.
14:20That's ridiculous.
14:21He ended up minus 20,000.
14:23So there was value on minus 1,000.
14:25Minus 600.
14:26Where does Judge?
14:27He can't go higher than this, this early in the season, can he?
14:31Well, you know, the problem was Cam Ward wasn't playing any football where we had to worry about
14:36something happening to him.
14:38That's true.
14:38The problem with Judge is that, you know, stubs his toe or, you know, falls down.
14:44That's a big man.
14:45Things can go wrong.
14:46But I can tell you this, if he stays healthy and just looking over from, we were just laughing
14:53about it.
14:53The start of last year in April, he was hitting 200 and we were all going, what's wrong with
14:59Aaron Judge?
15:00And then from May 1st last year to this year, he's hitting 362.
15:05He's got a slugging percentage of 760.
15:08He's got, what, 62 home runs since May 1st of a year ago.
15:12He's got a 13 war right now.
15:15I mean, it's, over the last year, nobody has been better than Aaron Judge hitting the ball
15:21and playing baseball.
15:22And if it, I don't see how that stops unless an injury happens along the way.
15:28So he's as good a shoe in as anything right now for that award.
15:32It looks like right now he could break his leg on May 1st and not play another game and
15:36still be the MVP and say, that's crazy.
15:38Mike Trout, who just hurt his knee, is hitting 190, is fourth in line in the odds market at
15:45the FanDuel Sportsbook to win MVP.
15:46A guy that just got injured hitting 190.
15:49What happened to the American League?
15:51Is it going to be that easy?
15:52It's Aaron Judge.
15:52My goodness.
15:53Like Bobby Wood's a great baseball player.
15:55Gunnar Henderson is struggling out of the gate after being injured.
15:57Alec Bregman, Alex Bregman has had a very good season start here for the Red Sox.
16:01But Mike Trout in fourth after getting injured and also hitting 190, make it make sense.
16:06It absolutely does not make some sense.
16:08Now, we don't have the heavy favorites here, Joe, in the Cy Young market, but Tarek Skubal plus
16:12210 price.
16:13Garrett Crochet plus 270, Hunter Brown 5-1.
16:16Look at Jacob DeGrom in sixth place in the odds market at 20-1.
16:19Is it Skubal's trying to go back to back?
16:23It's kind of hard to argue.
16:26He's lights out once again.
16:28The only team that seems to give him any difficulty is the Kansas City Royals, which is laughable.
16:32But everybody else, he has been, I mean, just lights out.
16:37To me, front runner and will be the rest of the season as well.
16:41How about comeback player of the year, our favorite awards marketer, Spencer Torkelson?
16:46And again, where did you come back from?
16:48Stinking?
16:48Like, what is that?
16:49Yeah.
16:50Yeah.
16:50I hate that award.
16:51I really do.
16:52I don't understand that.
16:53And no, I don't like that award.
16:55But, you know, I guess DeGrom would have to be considered in that conversation too as well if he can figure it out.
17:02So, there are some other names for sure.
17:05Yeah, I don't see right now my thing here.
17:07So, I'm glad that we actually have the odds listed up here because I don't see the comeback player of the year.
17:12We should get down to some more of those markets at this point.
17:14Oh, there it is at the bottom of the screen.
17:15There we go.
17:16So, American League comeback player.
17:17Torkelson?
17:18There it is.
17:19Trout again.
17:20Trout's going to be the MVP, the comeback player.
17:22Trout should just win it because he comes back from 16 injuries every season regardless of performance.
17:27Jacob DeGrom, Casey Mize, Trevor Story, Harvey Bias.
17:30Again, comeback player of the year is supposed to be, I tore my knee last year.
17:35I'm playing well this year.
17:36Congratulations.
17:37Not players like Harvey Bias who like stink and then actually haven't been that great this year.
17:42Comeback player of the year.
17:42That's terrible.
17:43That award needs to change.
17:44Or we need some, you know, fine print on understanding exactly how to vote on that show.
17:49Come on.
17:50Yeah, I agree.
17:51Trevor Story's interesting too.
17:53I don't know what his odds are, but he's interesting in Boston as well.
17:56Yeah, get paid a lot of money, stink, and then be comeback player of the year.
18:00What a life you can actually lead a Major League Baseball, man.
18:02Getting those big bags out there in the streets.
18:04Handicapped, having some fun in Major League Baseball.
18:06And did you know that we have seven games on the docket today?
18:10Starting at 1235 right through to 235 in the afternoon for action.
18:13We love that about Major League Baseball.
18:15And then we have a four-game night slate starting at 645 in the city of brotherly love.
18:20Joe, let's get started here.
18:21In the afternoon, a 110 start.
18:23That's Arizona, and that's the New York Mets.
18:26It's Gallon versus Senga on the mound.
18:28A 110 start.
18:29This line opened up as a minus 146 price here as a favorite towards the New York Mets.
18:33We're now seeing as high as right now live, 162 at the FanDuel Sportsbook,
18:37and as high as 170 in the marketplace elsewhere.
18:40Seven and a half as a total of the opening number.
18:42Still sits at seven and a half at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
18:45Some other outlets have moved to eight now here.
18:47Gallon and Senga.
18:49What happens today up in Citi Field?
18:50Well, it's, I mean, you've got to be a little bit worried about what you've seen from Zach
18:57Gallon so far this season as his, you know, he's getting absolutely crushed.
19:02He's missing, he's not missing as many bats.
19:06He's not getting guys to chase.
19:08It has been a slow decline here over the last couple of seasons.
19:13But the way the Mets are hitting, that makes it a scary proposition.
19:18And if you are Arizona, they are raking against right-handers.
19:23I believe a 122 WRC plus against righties.
19:28Last year, they were one of the best hitting teams against lefties.
19:32This year, that split is actually flipped.
19:35They are crushing righties and Senga, let's face it, doesn't scare anybody here.
19:40I wouldn't mind an over in this matchup here as I think both bullpens have a ton of issues.
19:46And I think, I think both lineups are going to have success against these starters today.
19:52Yeah.
19:52Take it with the code.
19:53I saying good.
19:5328 and two thirds innings pitch this year.
19:551.26 ERA, which is phenomenal.
19:57Slightly higher X fit, but closer to four at 3.97.
19:59And you're right about Zach Gallon supposed to be the lead dog for that locker room.
20:03And certainly a number one ace pitcher.
20:04How about a 5.57 ERA and a 4.38 X fit number?
20:08Joe is correct here.
20:09You line up that New York Mets squad here in the first part of the season against right-handed pitching.
20:13You got seven, or should be eight out of the nine batters he anticipated in the lineup today.
20:17High ISO power numbers against right-handed pitching.
20:19And then Arizona, we know certainly can handle the stick as well.
20:22First five guys in that lineup, just ISO powers against right-handed pitching.
20:25How about this, Joe?
20:26419, 186, 313, 234, and 369.
20:30Keep in mind, the average is about 165.
20:32That is absolutely phenomenal.
20:33Maybe the bats do break out today.
20:3569-degree temperatures are close to 70 degrees, and a double-digit wind blowing out to left field at Citi Field.
20:41We'll see if they can make it happen.
20:42But the one thing we can always agree upon, Mets lost last night.
20:45Every day the Mets lose is a very good day at the Sports Grid Network here, so we see if they lose again today.
20:51Let's get started.
20:52Next game up here.
20:52It's Chicago, and it's Pittsburgh.
20:55How about this one?
20:55Paul Skeen's on the mound, 1235 to get it started against Colin Ray.
20:59The line opened up.
21:00Now, this is interesting because it shows you how good the ball club is here for the Cubs.
21:06Skeen's opened up at minus 146.
21:07It actually dropped, Joe, to 136 right now in a total of 7.5.
21:12Cubs and Skeen's today with Skeen's not being the flavor of the day.
21:17That's interesting.
21:18Yeah, it is interesting, and Kyle Ray has actually been pretty darn good here for the Cubs since he made his return.
21:27But, you know, Skeen's at home coming off a come-from-behind win yesterday against the Cubs and that bullpen, a great win for the Pirates here.
21:38But, you know, 7.5 tells you everything you need to know here because Skeen's may be a little bit more hittable than he has been last year, and it would not shock me if this, too, if we get a few more runs in this game than people think.
21:55I do think early, first five for Skeen's, when that bullpen gets in, anything is possible for the Cubs hitters.
22:02You know, it's interesting, too, because you look at Paul Skeen's on the card today, 22 pitchers here that have ranked here on the XFIP number.
22:08Skeen's is number one, a 2.39 ERA coupled with a 2.6, excuse me, 2.46 XFIP.
22:13That's through 37 and two-thirds innings pitched.
22:16But you say, well, I can't believe it.
22:17Like, Skeen's numbers are that.
22:19Why is that number dropping?
22:20Well, Collin Ray, 18 and two-thirds innings pitched, Joe.
22:22How about an 0.96 ERA with a 3.13 XFIP number?
22:27Day baseball, always a little bit different than night baseball.
22:29You know, I'm pretty sure the starting lineups are out right now.
22:31I didn't refresh it, but we'll see how it goes.
22:33But it's always interesting to me to see Paul Skeen's as still the favorite pitcher.
22:37But usually, everybody can't wait to bet Skeen's.
22:39And today, it's like, hey, man, Atlanta for the Pittsburgh Pirates usually doesn't put up too many runs.
22:42We'll trust that maybe Chicago can wait out Paul Skeen's and win the battle of the bullpen,
22:46which they have a better team at that vantage point here.
22:49Game number three, we'll talk about.
22:50How about going from the afternoon, Joe, to the nightcap?
22:53945 start, 959, 960 on the rotation.
22:56That's Colorado and San Francisco.
22:58Freeland on the mound, the lefty for the Rockies.
23:01And Verlander on the mound, the veteran right-handed pitcher for the Giants.
23:04This line opened at minus 225.
23:07It now sits here, as you see the graphic, at minus 250.
23:10It's actually higher at minus 255 now, live at the FanDuel Sportsbook,
23:14with a total of 7.5.
23:15A massive favorite against the lowly Colorado Rockies.
23:19But the Colorado Rockies picked up a victory.
23:21Could it be two in a row, Joe?
23:22How about that?
23:23Say it ain't so.
23:24Yeah, no.
23:25And, well, that could be the first win, right, on the season for Justin Verlander here,
23:32who is, I believe, 38 wins away from 300, Donnie, which is kind of crazy when you think about it.
23:39But, yes, Colorado won that game yesterday in the afternoon against Atlanta.
23:44Nobody saw that coming.
23:46Now they've got to travel.
23:47I do like San Francisco in this spot.
23:50I don't like them at that price.
23:52But it wouldn't shock me if we laid a run and a half here and were able to get away with it that way also.
23:59Here's the interesting part, too, because it's really hard to extrapolate how bad Colorado's team is.
24:04But the ex-fip on Kyle Freeland, the starting pitch, has been very good this season.
24:08Like, he's had six starts.
24:09He's 0-4, 30-3rd innings pitch, with a close to a 6 ERA.
24:14But his expected ERA out of those starts is only 350.
24:17His fifth number is 2.91.
24:19His ex-fip is 3.09, and then he took a look at Verlander on the season, 30-2, 3rds innings pitch.
24:25He's close to a 5 ERA and a 4.42 ex-fip number.
24:28So just based on the analytical numbers, you are better if you are Colorado in betting them.
24:33But then, it's like you've still got to push the trigger, Joe, and bet Colorado.
24:37It's like they can win one a month, if you lose, or one a week in lucky, let alone two games in a row.
24:43So talk to me about that, like a betting strategy where it's like,
24:46look, I understand I should probably be taking San Francisco, but Colorado might be the better play.
24:50These are just completely stay-aways because they fry my brain.
24:53Yeah, no, it absolutely is.
24:55I mean, maybe a team total over if you're going to look that way there or under for Colorado.
25:01You know, Giants coming off of what?
25:04A couple of losses there to the Padres beat them up pretty good here.
25:07So, at home, I like them to bounce back here, but I'm not running to the window to back it.
25:13One of the two minor league ballparks that will be played in today.
25:17Well, actually, it won't be played in today, but the A's and the Tampa Bay Rays.
25:20Sellouts galore, people.
25:21We'll talk A's baseball next.
25:23Down to the great state of Texas.
25:25The only shame is this.
25:26We're not playing in Sacramento to get that heat and humidity into the ballpark because Texas typically plays with the dome closed.
25:32But that won't stop us from handicapping this game today, Joe.
25:34A 2.35 start, 9.65, 9.66 on the rotation.
25:38That is the A's taking on the Rangers.
25:40Springs, the lefty, will be on the mound, versus Molly, the right-handed pitcher.
25:43The opening line at the FanDuel Sportsbook overnight here in New Jersey, a minus $1.38 price.
25:47That's creeping higher to minus $1.42.
25:50You see the graphic here.
25:51So, that was a minus $1.54.
25:52Now, we're back a little bit, $0.10 or so, and across the board, as high as $1.50.
25:57Eight and a half the total of the opening number still sits at eight and a half.
26:00The A's are a fun team in the back, Molly versus Springs.
26:03Any early thoughts for you today with this game?
26:06Yeah, listen, Molly is due for some regression.
26:10And listen, Springs is also due for some regression, but in the positive nature here, his numbers are a little bit, he's a little bit unfortunate right now.
26:21But Molly has been getting away with a ton of runners being left on base, and we all know how that works out there.
26:27I do think the A's have an opportunity early in this game, in the first five.
26:33I actually like their number.
26:35They're getting a half a run.
26:36You can still get it at a pretty decent price.
26:39Would not shock me if this is at least tied, at which point you got pretty good value on taking the half a run with the A's.
26:46I don't want nothing to do with the bullpens.
26:49But, yeah, I like the A's early in this one.
26:51Here's the interesting part, too, because you take a look at Springs coming into today.
26:55He's got a 4.98 XFIP overall between lefties and righties, which is really bad.
26:59You look at Springs from the left-hand side.
27:00He's a left-handed pitcher, guys.
27:02And he really struggles with lefties to the tune, Joe, of a 6.44 XFIP number, which is completely the danger zone.
27:08But you look at the Rangers' lineup number one.
27:11They don't hit left-handed pitching very well.
27:12And I just told you, which is an anomaly typically, a left-handed pitcher not getting out left-handed batters or struggling with them per se.
27:18You look at the anticipated lineup today for the Rangers.
27:21Right-hander, right-hander, right-hander, switch hitter, which will be batting from the right-hand side.
27:25Right-hander, right-hander, right-hander, right-hander.
27:28And Josh Smith as the only left-handed batter in that lineup who has a zero ISO power number and a 272 weighted on base percentage against left-handed pitching, which is terrible.
27:36So it's one of those where it's like, man, I wish they had more left-handed batters in there, which typically teams won't stack left-handed batters against a lefty.
27:42But that's where Springs struggles.
27:43So you're now pitching into his wheelhouse, which isn't still great from the right-hand side.
27:47But the lefties who did the most damage, there's very few lefties in that lineup, and we're anticipating only one.
27:52So something to watch out for today.
27:54We'll keep it moving down the list.
27:55That's Kansas City and Tampa.
27:57Lugo versus Boz.
27:59963-964 on the rotation.
28:01A one o'clock start today from Tampa.
28:03Heat and humidity, baby, plays into this one.
28:06How about this?
28:07Opening number overnight, Joe.
28:09134 towards Tampa Bay.
28:10You see the graphic at minus 154.
28:13Live at the FanDuel Sportsbook, minus 162 now for Tampa, as high as 170 across the board.
28:20The total, however, opened up at 8.5.
28:22Now it's dropped to 8 here at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
28:25Royals versus the Rays outside in Tampa.
28:29Yeah.
28:29Shane Baz, I guess, against Lugo.
28:31Is that what you're still showing here?
28:33That's it.
28:34That's what I'm showing.
28:34Listen, we all keep waiting for Lugo to fall off a cliff here, and yet the guy continues
28:41to go out there and continues to dominate.
28:44I saw a strikeout prop at 4.5, and he's averaging about six a start over his last four outings
28:51here.
28:52Granted, Tampa, those bats over there, they tend to put the ball in play a little bit
28:57more.
28:58But I would be looking for Lugo early and often.
29:01Even a first five under, with these two starting pitchers and the inability of teams to score
29:07any runs off them, yeah, I'll take the first five under here, and then the bullpens get
29:11involved, and good luck from there.
29:13Yeah, Shane Baz, by the way, 29 and a third innings pitch this year, Joe.
29:16245 ERA, really good, and certainly a 3.25 X fifth number.
29:20And you're right about Seth Lugo.
29:21What does he have this year?
29:2238 innings pitch, a 3.0 ERA, and a 4.23 X fifth number, which is still a little bit higher.
29:27But it's one of those pitchers, like, we've seen Seth Lugo all throughout time, right?
29:30Like, hey, dating back a couple years.
29:33And same thing with, like, the Jose Quintana.
29:34It's like, I don't understand how they pitch and pitch so well at times when they should
29:37be getting hit.
29:38Maybe that happens today, but I'm with you.
29:40It looks like a pitching matchup today, earlier.
29:42By the way, you take a look at those, the heat and humidity, which will be there in
29:45Tampa.
29:46Sometimes I look at the early games, like, ah, sometimes the players aren't up and ready
29:51to go with bad lineups here.
29:53Approaching afternoon games to night games.
29:55Does it sometimes make you overthink the situations at all?
29:58It does for me.
29:58Yeah, well, it does, especially when you got some teams, you know, possibly getaway situations
30:05where they're out of there, they're going to be traveling right after the game over.
30:09So the Wednesday, Thursday getaway games is always a little iffy there, Don.
30:15You got to be a little bit more careful, especially with the afternoon games on a Thursday.
30:20Yeah, I mean, you got to pack the suitcase up.
30:22You got to get out of town at that point.
30:24Maybe you're over in Ybor City late last night.
30:26You don't really feel like playing in the heat and humidity.
30:28It's not air conditioned anymore like the trop would be at this point.
30:31So maybe some indicators there.
30:32But we do have afternoon action today.
30:34And as we stated, four games tonight starting at 645 and later for the nightcaps here.
30:38All right, let's get down to some fun here.
30:40Major League Baseball today.
30:41You got a lot of afternoon action out here.
30:43Anybody that you've settled up with or like this afternoon, Tom?
30:46Yeah, let's turn to Andrew Abbott, the starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds.
30:51Really like him over four and a half strikeouts.
30:53It is sitting at minus 140.
30:54You know, a good bit of juice there.
30:55They're going up against the Cardinals.
30:57The Cards come in with a 23.4% striker rate versus lefties.
31:00That's 16th in the lead.
31:01That's a very average.
31:03I know striker rate for a team.
31:05When it comes to Abbott, he has a 32.4% strikeout rate and 11% swinging strike rate.
31:10That 34% strikeout rate is higher than Paul Skeens, who's at 27%.
31:14It has to come with a very big caveat that Andrew Abbott has far fewer innings or, you know, in the grand scheme of things.
31:21He only has about 15 innings pitch.
31:22Paul Skeens is pushing towards 40.
31:23So the sample size is much better for Skeens than it is for Abbott.
31:27But a 32% strikeout rate for one of their young up-and-coming pitchers in a spot that I think is very favorable.
31:32Listen, if the line was five and a half, we'd be getting plus money, but I may not be interested at five and a half.
31:38So give me four and a half with a little bit of juice for Andrew Abbott and a good matchup.
31:43Call me crazy.
31:44Are you shocked the Skeens total is seven and a half?
31:48Okay, so I saw it at six and a half earlier this morning.
31:50It was six and a half at minus 120 or so.
31:53And again, I think six and a half is a good number.
31:55Seven and a half against the Cubs lineup.
31:58You know, we started talking about unders at that point.
32:00And, you know, again, when I'm looking at the money line overall, like, I think there's just value in the Cubs just straight up to win.
32:06Like, I think the money line's a bit too.
32:08The Cubs are by far the better team compared to the Pirates.
32:11And I don't want to be essentially delaying juice when we know that, like, you could bet the Pirates first five.
32:16But, man, for the full game, I think the Cubs still win.
32:19Yeah, we'll see what happens in that one.
32:21I'm not going to be here in the next segment.
32:22I want to cheat real quick here.
32:23Ottawa, Toronto.
32:25Does that series go in another game, Tom?
32:28Ottawa's playing with house money.
32:30Like, the Leafs are this disaster in the first round.
32:32If the Leafs do not score first tonight, it is going to be a major, major issue.
32:37Ottawa has all the cards on their side.
32:39They score first and they get out to a lead.
32:41It is a tough spot for the Maple Leafs.
32:43Oh, boy.
32:44Oh, boy.
32:45Hockey playoffs at its best here.
32:47Tom Vecchio and certainly Joe Renier are going to carry it through for the rest of the show,
32:50which does include one more segment right here on the early line.
32:53I'm not going to make it over to radio, but an afternoon Major League Baseball card
32:56the first day of May, the Kentucky Derby this weekend.
32:59What a time to be alive, people.
33:01Stay tuned.
33:01They'll carry you home.
33:02For me, I'm out of here.
33:04See ya.