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00:03Live right here on the early line. It is game number two of
00:06the marquee matchup this week during Major League Baseball.
00:10It's out in LA. It's the Dodgers and the Phillies. So far
00:15in this set, the Dodgers took the opener last night, five to
00:18three, the final over the Phil's Philadelphia opened up an
00:22early lead. Once again, it did not end that way. The Phil
00:26since the all-star break four and twelve, the Dodgers ten and
00:30six. Today, it's virtually a pick them in Los Angeles.
00:34Clayton Kershaw, yet another start, his third of this MLB
00:38season, minus one ten for Los Angeles, minus one oh six on
00:42the other side for Philadelphia. The over under eight and a
00:46half. Can the Phil's even this set or the Dodgers already at
00:50least win the series against Philadelphia tonight? They
00:54should. If this was ten years ago, Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers,
00:57you know, Chavez Ravine, it should be an easy victory for
01:00the Dodgers. I don't think that's going to be the case
01:02because of what we possibly are getting out of Clayton Kershaw
01:04tonight, but let's we'll start here with the Philadelphia
01:07Philly side of things. Christopher Sanchez on the
01:09mound looking for a bounce back effort and quite frankly, the
01:11Phillies entire lineup is looking for bounce back
01:13efforts on a day-to-day basis, but if we are looking at just
01:16the power numbers for Christopher Sanchez against
01:18him this year, he's left-handed pitcher. Take a look at this
01:21right is combined been an 075 ISO. That is tremendous last
01:2430 days. It does rise a little bit to 094, which means he's
01:28going to keep the ball in the ballpark and also limit the
01:31damage of triples and doubles. Hopefully holding in the
01:34singles, but also you got to take a look at who he's going
01:37up against the Dodgers tipping. It's like, hey, that's a
01:39pretty good hitting team not against lefties and not over
01:41the past 30 days been you take a look at this lineup task
01:44Hernandez and Freddie Freeman 26 at bats and 21 bats combined
01:47along with Ahmed Rosario have solid numbers. I so power
01:50wise and weighted on base percentage. The other guys show
01:53Hey Otani Will Smith Pajes Hernandez Lux and Ahmed have
01:57been dreadful against left-handed pitchers. So Sanchez
02:00in a pitcher's ballpark brings his a game. You think runs
02:03might be of a premium here to the Dodgers. Now, let's flip
02:06it over to Clayton Kershaw who again, we're not dealing with
02:08Clayton Kershaw the ghost of the past when he was maybe the
02:10most dominant pitcher in Major League Baseball. He's a left
02:13handed pitcher that really struggles with right-handed
02:15batters, but this Phillies lineup. If you're looking at
02:17the first six batters five of those guys elevated numbers
02:20against left-handed pitching. The only guy that's not
02:22elevated is JT Romuto with one at bat, which obviously
02:25probably either struck out or grounded out at that point,
02:28but Schwarber Turner Harper Boehm and Castellanos all higher
02:31numbers. So if we're just being optimistic tonight and saying
02:34don't take a look at what the Phillies have done in the
02:36past. They do have the better pitcher on the mound and the
02:39better lineup in play tonight that should equate to a
02:41victory. I'll stand on that. We'll see where the line ends
02:45up again. The Dodgers only an underdog 13 times this year,
02:48but when booked as a dog, there is a reason why they are
02:52four and nine the most recent time last week. It was Clayton
02:55Kershaw getting a start against Dylan Cease. Kersh has made
02:59two starts this year. It is your number 17 in Major League
03:03Baseball all with LA 17 or 18. I'll look at his years of
03:08service here in just a moment, but in the two starts that he
03:13has made this season, seven and two-thirds on the bump. He
03:17has allowed five earned runs and the Dodgers have split his
03:20two games. They want his first debut of this season against
03:23San Francisco. They lost last week eight to one against San
03:27Diego. Owen won the record for Kershaw with a 587 ERA. So yes,
03:33LA is the slight favorite, but it's not Clayton Kershaw of
03:362012 or even just a few years back Philadelphia trying to
03:42get back to their winning ways. The two teams enter tonight
03:45separated by just a half game atop the National League
03:48standings. Philly has that half game lead. Could it flip by the
03:52end of tonight in Los Angeles? Only nine games yesterday in
03:56Major League Baseball. Plenty more today. If the two top
03:59teams in the National League face off in Los Angeles teams
04:03three and four at least from a record perspective face off
04:07this week starting today in Atlanta. The Braves host the
04:10Brewers minus 132 the number in favor of Atlanta a total of
04:14nine today in the ATL. What do you like between the Braves and
04:17the Brew Crew? I think the Atlanta Braves deserve to be a
04:20favorite here of at least 125 or higher, which they are at the
04:23FanDuel Sportsbook. Take a look at Colin Reyes on the mound.
04:25He's been dominant as the right-handed pitcher against
04:27left-handed batters, but struggling a bit against
04:29right-handed batters. But if you are looking at the past 30
04:32days for this Braves lineup, it is starting to improve against
04:35right-handed pitching above average ISO power numbers.
04:38Austin Riley, Marcel Zuna, Matt Olsen, Orlando Arcea, Jerry
04:41Kelenic, Whit Merrifield. How about that? Believe it or not
04:44at 222 ISO against right-handed pitching and also if we're
04:47looking at Bryce Elder, usually it's the guy like, oh, I hope
04:50maybe like a Chris Sayles on the mountain. Not the case, but he
04:53hasn't been bad overall because if we are checking out his
04:56statistics over the past 60 days in 82 X-fifth minus the
04:59ERA is a little bit high, but his X-fifth number 3.31 Sierra
05:023.52 all manageable and you take a look at that lineup, which
05:05leaves a lot to be desired at times for Milwaukee. Now
05:08granted, are they both front line pitchers? No, they're not
05:11you are playing Atlanta. It's going to be muggy tonight in
05:14the high 80s slight wind blowing out. So it's always
05:17emptying to take those overs, but it does take 10 runs to
05:20beat you tonight. I don't know if that's going to happen, but
05:22I do think the stronger play to me is I think Atlanta handles
05:25their business tonight and knocks off Milwaukee. I would
05:27take that money line. The Braves still the highest under
05:31percentage in MLB more than 62% of their games, including all
05:36for this weekend at home against Miami. They split that
05:40series by the way for a second straight night. The lone star
05:43state battle in Arlington Rages on it is Texas and Houston
05:48the Astros with from Rivaldez on the bump a road favorite
05:51tonight. It was the Rangers walking it off yesterday in
05:55extras a Josh Smith to run home run was the difference what
06:00happens in game number two. You know, what's going to be
06:04interesting about this game as you're trying to set this up
06:06is we have a pitcher that's going to be making his Major
06:09League debut this season. Those are always tough to say, you
06:12know what I have a exact idea of how he's going to fare. But
06:15the one thing I do know is frame Rivaldez on the opposite
06:17side as a left-handed pitcher. He's been one of the better
06:19pitchers in Major League Baseball even over the last 60
06:21days a 73 X fit minus number a 3.02 X fit number and if we're
06:27just looking at the statistics over the last 98 batters been
06:29that he faced you take a look at it. Oh 88 ISO awaited on
06:33base percentage of 254. Now, let's throw it over to the Texas
06:36lineup. Forget about even who's on the mound pitching for them.
06:38Let's just see how they've done against left-handed pitchers
06:40over the past 30 days Adoles Garcia only seven at-bats. He's
06:44done really well Robbie Grossman only 15 at-bats. He's done
06:47really well. Now you want to take a look at some of the
06:49other players just ISO power number wise a 0 for Simeon a 0
06:53for Seager a 0 for Langford a 0 for Jung a 0 for Heim a 0 for
06:58Duran a 0 for Tavares that paints the picture right now.
07:01You're seeing a price point of what's the updated number. Do
07:05we have that graphic up? It was like 125 130 ish. I believe
07:08like I don't know why technically really it is that
07:11low if that's the pitching match. That's what we're
07:13getting tonight. So yeah, I would go to a public play. I
07:16don't care. I'd go with the Astros. So Tyler Mallee gets to
07:19start today for the Rangers again. He has been around Major
07:23League Baseball the last few years. I believe he was in
07:26Cincinnati most recently. I will check that in Minnesota.
07:30He was in Cincy and then pitch with the twins at least in part
07:33in 2022 and last year in 2023. I loved him on the Reds when I
07:39started working here at the Sports Grid Network when my
07:41favorite Cape prop looks of course makes his season debut
07:44tonight for Texas when you look at these two teams the RS the
07:48Astros now back by a game and a half in the American League
07:52West behind Seattle Houston has lost six of its last eight
07:58Texas despite the win in the opener yesterday against the
08:00Strohs has still lost seven of its last ten. So both teams
08:05looking to play better baseball against their in-state rival
08:09the Royals lost yesterday at home nine to five against the
08:12Red Sox Boston has won five of its last seven KC six of its
08:16last eight both teams battling for that third and final
08:19American League wildcard spot. The Royals still hold a game
08:23and a half advantage over Boston Seth Lugo gets to start
08:27tonight for KC minus 130 on the Moneyline total is eight and a
08:31half. What's the play in this Midwest matchup? It's going to
08:35be a good one. I do think this one's closer to a coin flip
08:37typically to what we saw yesterday. It's actually
08:39think Kansas City should have won but they didn't because the
08:41bats for the Red Sox certainly were hot. But what a difference
08:44a day makes here Ben. We're talking about 90 degree
08:46temperatures in the wind blowing out yesterday. Now we're
08:48talking about 70 degree temperatures not 70, but you
08:50know mid-70s at that point, but the wind blowing in nine miles
08:53an hour, which could have an effect here. You take a look
08:55at Seth Lugo over the past 60 days and 84 X fit minus number
08:59but a 3.14 ERA. So those two numbers match up Brian Bayou
09:03take a look at this a 93 X fit minus which is above average
09:06for a pitcher, but an ERA coming in at close to six. So
09:10sort of pitching and getting a little bit unlucky at this
09:13point. So let's just say those analytical numbers do hold
09:16true. Why not take Austin at a slight price point here as
09:19a dog. I like the look DRS more on the early line next. Could
09:24it be a record-setting day in Oakland yesterday? It was the
09:29White Sox making history for all of the wrong reasons losing
09:3321 straight games to the A's in their series opener five to
09:38one was the final that matches the longest losing skid in the
09:42history of the American League tie in the Baltimore Orioles
09:45back in 1988 who started that season. Oh and 21 could the
09:50White Sox drop 22 straight today against the A's the
09:55athletics nearly a $2 favorite to do it. Once again, Joe
09:58Friese. Oh, well done feeling 22. That is a good headline
10:02eight and a half is the total for today's game by the Bay
10:0622 straight losses DRS. Is it going to happen tonight?
10:11Feeling 22 about the fall into a blank space right now with
10:14another loss could be amazing out there on the West Coast.
10:17How many people going to show up for this game here? But let's
10:19just talk about the optics of it. The Oakland Athletics with
10:22Ross dribbling on the mound are close to a $2 price. That is
10:25absolutely outrageous. But what gives you any hope like we
10:28started this by having to recap yesterday for what happened
10:31between Oakland and Chicago and forget about the game itself.
10:33You just look at that roster one through nine ago. Can anybody
10:36get base hits and it's the same thing once again today because
10:39if you're lining up the Chicago White Sox team against
10:42stripling who's not a great pitcher, but actually does have
10:44some decent statistics with ISO power number weighted on base
10:47percentage, but just look at this lineup here Vargas Baldwin
10:50Robert sheets Vaughn Sosa Fletcher all below the Mendoza
10:55line for ISO power numbers. So if you have seven dead bats in
10:58the lineup and just two decent ones and those two decent ones
11:01are been attending Corey Lee, which we told you are hitting
11:04around 150 a piece. It feels like for both of them. I don't
11:07give too many high hopes, but also now you're taking a look
11:10here like forget about the X's and O's on the field and who
11:13actually has the better statistics. You have one side
11:15that really doesn't want to lose 22 straight games. Why
11:18because it's embarrassing and you're setting yourself up for
11:21historic numbers in the wrong direction, but also if you're
11:24Oakland man, you guys just lost to a team that was 21 straight.
11:27That's terrible. So it's almost like you have like the competing
11:30sides like we don't want to be embarrassed and the other side
11:32doesn't want to be embarrassed at the same time, but I don't
11:35know who's betting on the White Sox. That is a dead team
11:38walking in a dead environment in Oakland. They'll probably get
11:41blistered again today.
11:43Yeah, I would expect that to be the case. I don't know how it
11:46ends. Baseball is a random sport. So things could happen
11:49that surprise you each and every day. It just looks really
11:53porous at this moment. And yes, it is a 21 game skid for
11:57Chicago at this moment, but they are 61 games 61 below
12:02527 and 88 is the overall record this year for the White
12:07Sox. Next up we go to Cleveland where the Guardians have a
12:11half-game lead over both Baltimore and New York for the
12:14best record in the AL but this week in the land, one of the
12:19hottest teams in baseball, the Diamondbacks have won 10 of
12:21their last 12 games. It's a virtual pick them once again as
12:25it was yesterday in Cleveland. The Guardians now a slight
12:29home favorite. Will they even out this set at least through
12:32its first two games against Arizona today? Let me tell you
12:36a little tale. You take a look at Ben Lively's actually been
12:38a decent picture here for the Cleveland Guardians on the
12:40season, but that's not where I want to go at this point. His
12:43ISO power numbers are 229 as total for the last 30 days
12:47against 114 batters. But if we isolate that to just left-handed
12:50batters, it's a 259 and a winded on base percentage of
12:53331. So you say to yourself, okay, maybe lively does well
12:57against right-handed batters, which he's doing. But how does
12:59he do against the lefties? I just told you. Look at the
13:01first four batters in the lineup today. Two lefties, two
13:04switch hitters, which means Ben, they'll all be left-handed
13:06batters. Corbin Carroll, 69 at-bats against right-handed
13:09pitching over the past 30 days, a 414 ISO and a winded on base
13:13percentage of 442. That's off the charts. Quito Marte, he'll
13:17be a switch hitter today. His last 56 at-bats against
13:20right-handed pitching, a 458 ISO and a 470 winded on base
13:24position. Take a look at Jock Peterson here, 49 at-bats
13:27against right-handed pitching as a left-handed batter, a 410
13:30ISO power number, winded on base percentage 453. Josh Bell, 68
13:34at-bats against right-handed pitching as a lefty, 300 ISO,
13:37396 winded on base percentage. That is insane to start the
13:41game. So forget about the side itself. Look at one of those
13:44first four batters here. You want props just to say hit a
13:47home run? They all check out. You want RBI props? They all
13:50check out. You want total bases? They all check out at this
13:53point. Here's the only issue. Wind blowing in from right
13:55field, 13 miles an hour and a rainy forecast in the low
13:59seventies. I hope this game plays and if it does, those
14:02lefties on the diamondbacks should be doing damage once
14:05again today. Yesterday, DRS tried to fade David Festa, the
14:10starter for Minnesota. He was sensational. Five innings of
14:14shutout work striking out nine as the twins won the opener in
14:19Wrigley three nothing over the Cubs. A great pitching matchup
14:22today. A dead, even pick a minus 108 on both sides with a
14:26total of six and a half. It's sure to Iminaga for the Cubs.
14:29It's Pablo Lopez on the other side for the twins. What do you
14:33like at Wrigley? Is that what it is now? Like let me just get
14:36hit this and by the way, some outlets are a six even right
14:40now. I say this doesn't make sense and always goes back to
14:43the notion like we understand like you don't have to hit the
14:45ball in the air and hit home runs to score runs. You can
14:47have singles and doubles and still do fine, but there is
14:50the wind blowing here consistently at just around 20
14:53miles an hour dead in from center field and you don't have
14:56pitchers that are susceptible to the long bar getting way
14:59laid out there. You have two good pitchers on the mound, but
15:01I gotta tell you is this one of those weeks like we don't
15:04usually break this out for football season. Ben principal
15:06plays a six. Don't you feel the obligation to take over the
15:11six? I mean, honestly, it's like an NFL game that they go.
15:14Hey, you know, it's going to be bad weather, but it's going
15:16to be 30 and a half points like wait a second here. Sometimes
15:19you just have to say throw this game out. I understand the
15:22weather. What happens if the wind isn't so bad at game time
15:24here and you're going to give me a six. Come on now. I would
15:29agree with you. It's a postseason total that maybe we
15:32can see at least some run seven wins today. Seven gets the
15:36victory in the under has the juice at six and a half on
15:38FanDuel. Why some other outlets perhaps are showing a six two
15:43teams trying to stay in the wild card race in their
15:47respective leagues. The Cardinals in the NL the Rays in
15:51the American League St. Louis got shut out yesterday in that
15:54standalone game against the New York Mets. They remain in the
15:57loo with Sonny Gray on the bump and booked is greater than a
16:00dollar and a half favorite. Seven and a half is the total
16:03and Sonny Gray is the best exit minus number on the card here
16:06been at a 69 is he already over the past 60 days is right
16:09around a four and a half, which is bad, but that x-fifth number
16:122.80 and a nice Sierra 3.09 Sonny Gray should be able to
16:15step up to the plate against a lot of I don't love for Tampa
16:18on the road. They need a bounce-back performance if
16:20they're getting embarrassed yesterday, and I think they get
16:22it with Sonny Gray.
16:24Jeffrey Springs gets the start is it is you here in this MLB
16:29season. It was a great start.
16:32Yeah, he's got it. One previous start. I think yeah. Yeah,
16:34second start second start. He was great last year for Tampa
16:37to start the season DRS. Enjoy the money line. We'll talk
16:41tomorrow more on TEL.
16:45Yeah.