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00:00Major League Baseball, rainy conditions here on the East Coast,
00:03and at least that will be for the next couple of days,
00:05maybe impacting your Mondays here.
00:07No afternoon game scheduled.
00:08First game on the card tonight, 640.
00:10Then everybody else begins and gets underway.
00:13Do you know where we're starting, Joe Ranieri, first?
00:15It's in the Bronx.
00:16It's with the Padres and the New York Yankees.
00:18Pavetta versus Rondon on the mound.
00:20Take a look here at the opening number.
00:22Minus 152 at the FanDuel Sportsbook overnight.
00:25Dipping a little bit, as you've seen, on this graphic,
00:27but now spiking back up to minus 154 and minus 155s across the landscape.
00:33The total, Joe, opened up at 8.
00:35That's now down to 7.5, but 60 degrees, rain in the forecast for the entire game.
00:41Always tough to handicap those.
00:44It is, and listen, Pavetta's been great in the National League.
00:48He's been great for the Padres,
00:50but the problem was when he was with Boston in the American League,
00:53the Yankees absolutely destroyed him.
00:56And I get it.
00:58They're on a five-game winning streak,
00:59but they just beat up the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.
01:02The Yankees dropped two or three to Tampa,
01:04but they got their ace on the mound here in this one.
01:08And I give the edge to the home team.
01:11I agree with the line move to the under as well here, Donnie.
01:14I mean, Rondon's only given up three runs over his last 19 innings here.
01:18And yeah, I like the spot for the Yankees
01:21to be able to bounce back and get game one.
01:24Yeah, take a look, too, on the season.
01:26Nick Pavetta here, 35 and a third innings pitched,
01:29a 178 ERA and an XFIP of 3.22, which is great.
01:33Carlos Rodon also, 42 innings pitched here, 3.43 ERA and a 3.23 XFIP number.
01:39So I'm in agreement with you.
01:41The total makes sense under, but also keep in mind,
01:43sometimes we take a look at those starting pitchers,
01:45rain throughout the forecast.
01:46How does it affect them, Joe, before the game?
01:48Which means, like, hey, start time, 7.05 is now 7.55.
01:53These guys are creatures of habit where they have their entire day clocked
01:56for a 7.05 start.
01:57Anytime it gets pushed back, it can mess with them.
01:59Also, keep in mind, if they do try to fit this game in,
02:02because the last thing you want is, sometimes it's like, okay,
02:04Toronto and New York.
02:05Hey, we can rain this one out.
02:06We'll play a doubleheader.
02:07We play you guys a lot.
02:08But I'm pretty sure San Diego's only time coming to the East Coast
02:11is going to be for this series here.
02:13They'll force that game in, which means if there are extra delays,
02:16you're handicapping based on Pavita and Rodon,
02:19and maybe one of those guys gets knocked out in the second inning
02:21because there is an extended rain delay,
02:23something always to keep an eye on at this point here.
02:26Game number two, we'll talk about a 7.40 start.
02:289.55, 9.56.
02:30That is Raup versus Boyd.
02:31That is the Giants taking on the Chicago Cubs.
02:34This line opened up as a minus 142 price,
02:36but now, as you see, minus 152 and hires as high as 162
02:41at some other outlets.
02:42A total also low, Joe.
02:43Open up 7.5, and you see the graphics.
02:46Still staying at 7.5 in the Windy City.
02:49Yeah, and the weather looks like it'll be pitcher-friendly there at Wrigley.
02:55I think temperature in maybe the upper 40s, low 50s,
02:59there is going to be some wind blowing in, I believe, from left field,
03:03they're saying.
03:04So, you know, the Cubs are, in addition to being a pretty good offensive team,
03:09they've been a really good defensive team as well,
03:12and it feels like you don't want to step at home into,
03:17you don't want to step in front of this train here with the Cubs.
03:20I don't think it's going to be a, you know, a 10-double-digit run affair here.
03:26I do think, though, the Cubs have shown us enough here
03:29that they can strap out some wins.
03:32I like them more defensively than I like the Giants.
03:35I would lean towards the Cubs here getting it done tonight.
03:38Yeah, I like the Cubs lineup, man.
03:40It just, it rakes.
03:41The middle of that lineup doing very well at this point.
03:43Take a look at Landon Ralph.
03:4430 innings pitched on the season.
03:45Here's the interesting part, right?
03:46You see the ERA saying, ooh, Cubs can get him.
03:485.10.
03:49But that XFIP number is 3.50.
03:51His expected ERA from that 5.10 is 3.31.
03:55So maybe getting a little bit unlucky here.
03:57We'll see what happens.
03:57But as you know, you see the 7.5,
03:59and it's not as if it's like, you know,
04:01Chris Sale, Cy Young going up against Roger Clemens, Cy Young.
04:04That means the wind is not at an advantage today in the Windy City.
04:08We'll see what happens there.
04:09Nightcap out to the West Coast here, Arizona.
04:11And that's the New York Mets.
04:129.59, 9.60 on the rotation.
04:149.40 start tonight.
04:16Roughly a pick-em.
04:17Open up at minus 116 as a favorite towards the New York Mets.
04:20Still sitting around that price point here.
04:22But here we go.
04:23A 9.5 total still sits at 9.5.
04:26It's Canning, and it's Nelson, and the Mets looking for a bounce back.
04:30Yeah, they need a big bounce back
04:33because they got swept in that doubleheader
04:34and lost their second consecutive series to St. Louis there.
04:38So back-to-back series losses for the Mets.
04:41Back-to-back one-run losses yesterday.
04:44Now they've got to travel to Arizona, take on Griffin Canning,
04:48is going to be on the mound for them to try and stop the bleeding here.
04:53This feels like an overgame to me, Donnie.
04:57It feels like we should probably expect some runs.
05:00The Mets are raking.
05:02They left a ton of guys on base in that doubleheader yesterday.
05:07Arizona getting a little healthier in that lineup.
05:09I don't like either starting pitcher, so to me, it would definitely be an over here.
05:15You know what the interesting part about this is, too?
05:17Because if you look at the pitchers on the card, right?
05:19Like Ryan Nelson's 17 innings pitch, which isn't a ton.
05:22His ERA is 5.82, but he's the best ex-fip guy on the card at 2.50.
05:27So it's one of those where, again, you take the old school analytics
05:30and say to themselves, which were ERA, which wasn't predictive.
05:33It was what happened.
05:34Like, man, this guy should get cracked.
05:35But apparently, the 2.50 ex-fip is elite at this point.
05:38Griffin Canning, on the other hand, he's got a 2.61 ERA, which is very good.
05:42Slightly higher ex-fip of 3.56.
05:45But again, there's a reason why.
05:46It's like, oh, two pitchers with great ex-fip.
05:48Yeah, this line should be eight, not nine and a half here.
05:51And also, as you pointed out with Arizona, going up against right-handed pitching,
05:54it's one thing they do extremely well.
05:56It's hit right-handed pitching.
05:57The first five guys he anticipated in the lineup tonight for Arizona,
06:00Corbin Carroll, 436 waiting on base percentage.
06:03Quetel Marte, just getting back in the lineup, 434 waiting on base percentage.
06:07Pavin Smith, 454.
06:08Naylor, 406.
06:10Suarez, 363.
06:11And then the bottom half of this lineup, Alec Thomas, 333.
06:14Perdomo, 350.
06:16And Ryan Nelson, again, only one at bat, but it's still at 890,
06:18which means he's doing some damage at the plate.
06:21These are two good-looking lineups here, which I'm with you at that point.
06:24Roof, by the way, 65, 66 degrees at first pitch.
06:27So maybe we get a little bit of that atmosphere in there,
06:30which will help the ball carry as opposed to the humidor.
06:33They like to keep it when that roof is closed.
06:35So I'm with you.
06:36We might be getting runs.
06:36But how about the Mets, though?
06:38Are we a little worried about the Mets here, Joe Ranieri?
06:40Riding on their high horse, lose a doubleheader to a lowly Cardinals team?
06:44Tough one.
06:45Yeah.
06:45That was a rough one yesterday.
06:47And, you know, also rough.
06:49You know, sometimes you'd rather be lucky than good.
06:51But keep in mind, in that second game, Juan Soto had a three-run homer robbed
06:57as the center fielder went over the wall to catch it.
07:00Yeah.
07:01And that game should have been Mets.
07:03But, nope, didn't work out.
07:05We'll see if they have any better luck tonight in Arizona.
07:08Nothing worse than that, too.
07:09Like, let's just say you did better Juan Soto home run yesterday.
07:12It's like, you didn't know what happened.
07:13You saw the highlights.
07:14Oh, come on!
07:15You stole my money.
07:16Oh, it's unreal.
07:17Major League Baseball, Matt Cooley, right back.
07:19Right back out of here in hour number three, talking some Major League Baseball.
07:23We have three, six, not ten total games on a Monday.
07:26Can't say no to that.
07:27Doubleheader in the NBA, which we're going to get back to in just a moment here.
07:30But also, one of the more intriguing teams in Major League Baseball right now
07:33is those Sacramento A's, playing above 500 baseball, hitting the baseball.
07:38My guy, Soderstrom, night-to-night basis.
07:41Rooker, you got it there.
07:42Butler, it's a fun team.
07:43We'll handicap that game next.
07:44963-964.
07:4610-05 starts tonight, West Coast, Seattle, and the Athletics.
07:50This line opened up as a pick-em.
07:51You see that card?
07:52Roughly still a pick-em.
07:54The total of this game opened up at nine.
07:56Most outlets still sitting at nine across the board.
07:59You look at that, no real favorite.
08:01Decent price point.
08:02They're in Sactown, which usually means runs here.
08:04What are we going off of tonight between Oakland slash Sacramento and also Seattle?
08:09Well, no, the problem is this is absolutely awful for the A's as far as scheduling goes
08:17because they just played a weekend series in my neck of the woods in Miami.
08:22Now they had to hop on a plane after that late afternoon game yesterday.
08:26They got to travel back to Sacramento, and now they got to take on the Mariners who just
08:32saw their six-game win streak get snapped yesterday by Jacob deGrom.
08:36Usually, you know, teams traveling all the way from the east back west, they get that
08:41Monday off.
08:42But the problem is they share a stadium with the minor league organization, and their games
08:47are always Tuesday and Sunday.
08:49So there's going to be a number of games where Oakland's going to have to travel all the
08:54way from one side of the country to the other with no rest in order to play on a Monday.
08:59Severino has been an absolute gas can at home at this ballpark.
09:04He gives up home runs left and right.
09:06He's been great.
09:07He's been real dominant on the road and give credit to this athletics team.
09:11They've been very good on the road here, but it just feels like this is a big ass for
09:17a young team to have all that traveling, close games all week, all weekend here in Miami.
09:24It screams Mariners, but I ain't trusting the Mariners either.
09:30I'm only going to bet it in the first five here.
09:33I'm going to take Seattle in the first five for this game.
09:36Like, you know, also like you just spent the weekend in Miami, right?
09:39You know, it's probably going to get warm weather down there at this time of the year.
09:42You're in at least like there might be not many people watching your game, but you're
09:45in a first class major league baseball ballpark.
09:48And then you got to fly cross country, which they probably made a fly commercial knowing
09:51the athletics.
09:52And then they go back to a minor league ballpark.
09:54So like, Ooh, good to be back in the friendly confines of home.
09:57No, it's not to minor league ballpark at that point.
09:59So that might play into it.
10:01But also the one thing I have liked about the Mariners this year, what's the past couple
10:04of years, Joe?
10:04Boy, they can pitch.
10:05They just can't hit.
10:06You got some studs down the middle of that lineup, like JP Crawford, 351 weighted on base
10:10percentage against right-handed pitching this year.
10:12Jorge Polanco, 537 weighted on base percentage.
10:15Rodriguez, 312.
10:16Cal Raleigh, 444.
10:18And Rowdy Tellez, 324.
10:20You got some guys in there that can hit.
10:21And also from an A's perspective, I love this lineup.
10:24Lawrence Butler is a great leadoff guy.
10:25Brent Rooker has got the power here.
10:27Tyler Soderstrom, one of my favorite players in Major League Baseball.
10:30So maybe just by default and where they play, you might get runs night.
10:33But as Joe pointed out, it's not really easy.
10:35You ever go on vacation and relax and have just a normal flight home.
10:38Oh, I'm exhausted the next day.
10:40You're going to get that jet lagged and all for the athletics.
10:43We'll see how that plays into it.
10:44Another game we'll talk about 740 p.m. tonight, 969, 970 on the rotation.
10:49That's Houston and Milwaukee.
10:51Blanco versus Myers.
10:52The line, roughly a pick them again today.
10:54Open up at minus 118.
10:56You see the splits now in the graphic.
10:57Minus 112, minus 104.
10:59The total, open up at 8.5.
11:00Still continues to stay at 8.5.
11:02Some competitive games we're handicapping today.
11:05Houston, Milwaukee.
11:06In Milwaukee, Joe.
11:08Yeah, I kind of like Milwaukee.
11:11I liked them yesterday to not get swept by the Cubs.
11:15They are home again.
11:17And I like Tobias Myers.
11:19I really do.
11:20I think the guy's got underrated stuff for sure.
11:24And Blanco, not somebody that I'm going to trust to go on the road here for this Houston
11:29team and get it done and call me crazy.
11:32I don't trust necessarily this lineup of Houston either.
11:37They've been beat up the Brewers.
11:39But that was a big win yesterday for them.
11:42And I think they have a big pitching advantage with Myers on the mound here.
11:46So I'm looking to back Milwaukee to get it done here tonight at home.
11:51Yeah, take a look at Tobias Myers on the mound.
11:5320 innings, excuse me, 20 batters.
11:55Doesn't have a lot of, I shouldn't say success, a lot of action here from right-handed side.
11:59But 20 of those batters, an O-ISO and a 295 weighted on base percentage, which, excuse
12:03me, a 168, which really works out.
12:05Lefties he's struggling with.
12:07But that's the key here.
12:08In the lineup tonight, only one projected lefty there for the Houston Astros.
12:11So even if Myers is struggling, I can't pitch to lefties.
12:14Hey, look at that, man.
12:15The right-handed batters certainly aren't doing any damage.
12:18Maybe that's a plus.
12:19Ronel Blanco actually struggling with lefties as well.
12:22But you see the lineup tonight.
12:23Terang's a lefty.
12:24Yelich will be a lefty, as well as Bowers, Collins, and maybe somebody else have to get
12:28put in there.
12:28So I am also leaning towards the Milwaukee Brewers tonight in this game in Milwaukee.
12:33We'll see how it plays out.