Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Are you ready for some baseball? Officially, the 2025 Major League Baseball season truly gets started today.
00:08Our first spring training game, a stand-alone matchup between the Dodgers and the Cubs.
00:13Both teams reporting early to spring training because they will open up the regular season
00:18ahead of the true opening day in Tokyo against one another on March 18th.
00:24Of course, last year it was the Dodgers and the Padres in the Seoul Series to start the year in Seoul, South Korea.
00:29This year to Japan makes a ton of sense, of course, for Los Angeles from a branding perspective.
00:35Shohei Otani, Yoshi Yamamoto, and now Roki Sasaki all play in that Dodger blue.
00:42DRS will talk the spring training game in just a bit, but it does allow us a moment to project the future
00:49for both of these teams throughout 2025.
00:52And of course, the rich just kept getting richer this winter.
00:57The Dodgers basically signing everybody back that they needed to.
01:01Added Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, great reliever in Tanner Scott.
01:06Blake Triton returns as well. So much talent on this Dodgers team.
01:11It almost doesn't seem fair. It's like it broke baseball.
01:15But how do the Dodgers continue with the success of winning a World Series year over year?
01:22Here is the outlook for L.A. Win total 104 and a half.
01:27To make the postseason, you can see the number.
01:30To win the National League West for a 12th time in the last 13 years is minus 650.
01:37To win the National League pennant basically before opening day, the Dodgers are nearing even money at plus 140.
01:43And of course, a ridiculously short number to win a World Series once again at plus 240.
01:50Dottie, Dottie, how do you look at the Dodgers entering 2025?
01:55As an absolute powerhouse, and they should win the World Series.
01:58Now, granted, we've seen great baseball teams not win the World Series.
02:01It's what happens. There's attrition. But understand this, too.
02:03The Dodgers always have an advantage as well.
02:05They went out, spent crazy, brought wonderful talent into the building.
02:09Great bullpen, great starting lineup, great frontline pitching staff.
02:13And then understand this. Once you get to the trade deadline,
02:16the Dodgers have unbelievable prospects and unbelievable amounts of money
02:19so they can add two more starting pitchers and another MVP caliber bat should they choose to do so.
02:24So take a look at this. Midway through the season, Vladimir Guerrero doesn't look like he's going to sign back with Toronto.
02:29They're not having a great season. Hey, we got two prospects for you, Vladi.
02:32Come on over. We'll sign you to a deferred contract for 15 years and you'll be part of the Dodger community.
02:36But to understand this for me, like, I don't hate what the Dodgers are doing.
02:40They're playing and they're doing everything in constraints with the salary cap allows,
02:43which there is not in Major League Baseball, and also using deferred money,
02:46which you don't have any, you know, constraints on that either.
02:49But in the next two to three years, this might actually correct baseball
02:52because some of the teams might force a lockout, which is great.
02:55But based on this season here, the Dodgers doing everything they can for their fan base to say,
02:59you live in a city where it's crazy overpriced. You want to go to Dodgers games.
03:03It takes you six hours to get in the ballpark. The seats are expensive.
03:06The beer is expensive. The drinks are expensive.
03:08So we better put on a show in the field. And they're doing that for their clientele.
03:12It's why you go to the top of the park. You take in the views of downtown Los Angeles
03:16and you get yourself a Tecate for a much cheaper price
03:20than what you will see elsewhere throughout the stadium.
03:23Like Estrella Jalisco? No, Tecate is better. Maybe make it a Michelada?
03:27You're having a lot of fun at Dodger Stadium.
03:30That 104 and a hook DRS is an absurd win total.
03:33Last year, if you remember, the Dodgers ended up on the mountaintop of MLB.
03:38They reached the pinnacle. We expected entering the season for this Dodgers team,
03:43but they only won 98 regular season games.
03:46It was the first time in a very long time that nobody around the bigs
03:51got to the century mark throughout the regular season.
03:54Baseball, it feels is a random sport, right?
03:58The best team that had all the resources at the end of the year,
04:01won a World Series against perhaps the second best team that has the second most resources
04:07in all the sport in the New York Yankees.
04:10As we probably all anticipated, it was the shortest number entering 2024.
04:16But Donnie, there is an idea that because baseball is so random,
04:20that each and every night, even with a loaded roster and a great starting staff,
04:25that through a long season that is a marathon of 162 games
04:29and a tenuous October run, that you can pick off even the best.
04:34We'll get to the World Series odds in just a moment,
04:37but that would be the only real thing standing in the way of the Dodgers, right?
04:42The idea of the randomness of baseball, night in, night out,
04:46because on paper and from the odds outlook,
04:49the Dodgers should win a World Series even right now.
04:52Yes, and the question is going to be like, you look at that total of 104.5
04:56and you say, boy, that seems high.
04:58Now there is 162 game schedule that you're going to play,
05:01but at the same time, how many times are the Dodgers actually going to be underdogs
05:05against any team in Major League Baseball?
05:07Sure, when they go on the road, let's just say Zach Wheeler is pitching
05:09for the Philadelphia Phillies in, let's just say, Philadelphia
05:12and you're going with your fourth start in that game.
05:14Slight underdogs at that point, which is crazy,
05:16but you're talking about when you're just playing the odds and the percentages
05:20to say, let's just say the Dodgers, honestly, Ben, 145 times,
05:25they're going to be favorites out of 162 games.
05:27Probably makes a lot of sense, maybe even more than that.
05:30Well, honestly, if they're going to favorites every night they're supposed to win,
05:33you're supposed to put up big numbers.
05:34And the one thing that can rescue is like, hey, they've got a great starting lineup for this.
05:37They can afford literally all one through nine to get injured and be like,
05:41hey, we're still fine with our B team out here.
05:43As stupid as that sounds, it's correct.
05:45That's how deep they are.
05:46Like they're going to have to force pitchers that are going to get angry
05:49because they're going to be on extended DL stints when they're not even injured
05:52because they just can't fit it in the top five in the rotation there.
05:55That's what the Dodgers' problem is going to be is,
05:57why do I make sure everybody's happy on the scene?
05:59Because everybody is good enough to play.
06:01That was one of the issues for the Dodgers, at least entering the postseason,
06:05a really banged up starting staff.
06:07Shohei Ohtani, of course, was not pitching last year.
06:10Tyler Glass now, who was the ace the entirety of the year for L.A.,
06:13did not pitch in the postseason.
06:16But to Donnie's point, the Dodgers recognized that at the All-Star,
06:19or the trade deadline, went out and got Jack Flaherty,
06:22who started Game 1 of the World Series, and now Flaherty is back in Detroit.
06:27Yes, an abundance of riches, an overwhelming amount of wealth
06:32for this Dodgers team, and we expect them to realize
06:35even that very optimistic odds perspective
06:38entering the 2025 Major League Baseball campaign.
06:42By the way, 98-64 last year.
06:44The four four years prior, at least 100 wins for the Dodgers.
06:49They have won the NL West 11 of the last 12 years.
06:52So yes, we believe they will be in a position to contend once again
06:56at bare minimum.
06:58But winning a division and reaching the postseason, of course,
07:01is not the expectation in the City of Angels.
07:04Might it be, though, at Wrigley?
07:06We'll talk the Cubbies on the other side of the break
07:09in the 2025 MLB campaign outlook in Chicago on the north side.
07:15And look at those World Series odds up next on the Early Line.
07:19The official debut of a spring training game in Major League Baseball.
07:24Today, between the Dodgers and the Cubs, who will open up the season
07:28even before the true opening day against one another in Japan
07:32starting March 18th, just under a month away.
07:36So we talked about the Dodgers, of course,
07:38the very short World Series favorites.
07:40We'll look at those odds in just a moment.
07:42But quickly, a focus on the north side of Chicago and the Cubs.
07:46Optimistic DRS entering 2025 to be a playoff team come October.
07:52Minus 172, minus 105 in the National League Central
07:57and a win total of 86.5.
08:00Of course, the biggest offseason acquisition for the Cubbies,
08:03a trade with the Astros to get the outstanding outfielder
08:07and power bat Kyle Tucker.
08:09But the last time the Cubs went over this win total of 86.5
08:13was way back in 2018.
08:15Of course, that capped off that historic four-year run for the Cubs
08:19that included the 2016 World Series, snapping the curse of the Billy Goat.
08:25How do you look at the Cubbies entering 2025?
08:28As trying to make money, which is similar to what they always try to do
08:31and tell you that they're poor and they can't afford a lot of players.
08:34They do have a decent lineup coming into it.
08:35The reason I say this, though, it's very rare that there's an instance
08:38where Chicago is a monster market.
08:40Do you not see how they operate?
08:41And it's a shame that their actual ownership does this.
08:45The Brewers, small market.
08:46Cardinals, small market.
08:47Reds, small market.
08:48Pirates, small market.
08:49And then there's the Cubs.
08:50They should absolutely be the Mets of that division
08:52and outspend everybody and win every single season.
08:54But their ownership group that brought in is going to say, you know what?
08:57We're just going to sit back and pile up the money
08:59and tell you that we're out of expenditures.
09:00But I am optimistic for the season because if you're looking
09:03at the estimated go-to starting lineup this year,
09:06Hap, Tucker, Suzuki, Bush, Swanson, Horner, Crow, Armstrong, Shaw, and Amaya.
09:10It's not that bad here.
09:12You take a look at the starting pitchers that you expect there.
09:14Imanaga's a very good pitcher.
09:15Steele's very good.
09:16Jamison Tyone, veteran.
09:17Matthew Boyd trying to get that reclamation project left-handed pitcher
09:21to try to step up but not expected to be a top-three guy.
09:24And then Javier Assad.
09:25It's not a bad lineup all the way through.
09:27So if you are looking, yes, the Brewers typically have that very good team.
09:31Don't spend money.
09:32We don't know how they win.
09:33I have optimistic thoughts about the Cubs this year.
09:36Winning it because why?
09:37Who knows what the Cardinals are doing?
09:39Still looking to piecemeal and get Ridley Nolan, Arenado at that point,
09:41some of those aging veterans.
09:43The Reds, they're young and exciting,
09:44but not really spending enough money on the top end of the rotation
09:47to get through.
09:48The Pirates are always the Pirates.
09:49So the Cubs probably should win this division.
09:51And if you look at the NL Central at minus 105,
09:53I think it's a pretty fair price.
09:55DRS, you look at the Redbirds.
09:57St. Louis was the favorite to win this division entering last year.
10:01Now a 10-1 price tied for the longest alongside the Pittsburgh Pirates.
10:05A company you do not want to hold entering a season.
10:09The Brewers have won the NL Central three of the last four years
10:12and yet have that second-best number at plus 290.
10:16Minus 105, the price for Chicago.
10:18They are the favorites.
10:20The Brewers won it last year in a season in which Craig Council left Milwaukee
10:24to go to the divisional foe to join the Cubs.
10:27And Pat Murphy, one National League Manager of the Year.
10:31The Reds, an interesting team there in the mix as well.
10:35Could be on the rise with one of the bright stars in baseball in Eli De La Cruz.
10:39Donnie, we were talking about the Dodgers.
10:41Again, opening game of spring training is today.
10:44Yoshi Yamamoto starting for the Dodgers.
10:47They're a minus 192 favorite against Cody Poteet on the other side for Chicago.
10:52They're a slight underdog.
10:54Both of these guys, DRS, probably going to go for an inning at most
10:58and then we'll get into the reserves.
11:00There is a money line for the spring training debut this year in MLB.
11:04Nothing else outside of that.
11:07We'll continue to talk World Series prices, factor in dependent prices as well
11:12on the other side of the break.
11:14But I want everybody to look at the World Series odds.
11:17Plus 240 is the price on the Los Angeles Dodgers
11:21before we even get underway this year.
11:24The Yankees, unsurprisingly, second best number at 7-1.
11:28But, Donnie, the Dodgers are nearly a third of the number
11:31of everybody else around Major League Baseball
11:36just from a handicapping odds perspective,
11:39let alone outlook, talent, roster, manager outside of that.
11:43Is the number just far too short on the Dodgers
11:46ahead of a season that is 162 games long?
11:50No, because if you're the betting public and you're a sports book,
11:53you're saying, well, where is 98% of our bets coming in
11:56if it was plus 100 to win the World Series?
11:58It would be on the Dodgers.
11:59The other 2% is betting on their favorite teams here.
12:01And as I said many times before,
12:03this isn't a team where the ownership group goes,
12:05hey, look, guys, it's up to you now to win it.
12:07No, they might get an MVP at the trade deadline
12:11to bolster the team once again
12:13because money doesn't matter in Los Angeles.
12:16They'll continue to stack great players.
12:18So any team that you see on opening day
12:19probably going to be better by the trade deadline.
12:21Make it make sense.
12:23I don't even know what the starting staff is going to look like.
12:26Tyler Glass now, Blake Snell, who was great last year
12:29after a sluggish start in San Francisco,
12:31won the Cy Young Award the year before that.
12:34Is Shohei even pitching? Do we know?
12:37More on the early line up next.
12:38With the opening day of spring training starting this afternoon
12:42between the Dodgers and the Cubs,
12:44we get you ready with an early preview
12:46of the 2025 Major League Baseball season.
12:48Donnie, right before the break,
12:49we showed you those World Series odds.
12:51The Dodgers nearly a third of everybody else around the bigs.
12:55We'll talk American League in just a second.
12:57But of course, this winter,
12:59it wasn't just the Dodgers adding everybody.
13:02The biggest move that we saw,
13:04the addition of Juan Soto for the New York Mets.
13:07And yet the Amazons still the third best price
13:10alongside the Philadelphia Phillies
13:12to win the National League at plus 650.
13:15Both teams behind the Atlanta Braves at a 5-1 number.
13:20So DRS, very short number for the Dodgers to win the NL
13:23as it is to win the World Series.
13:26Of the other teams around the National League,
13:28especially those top four teams in the pennant odds,
13:32who do you think provides LA the toughest test this season?
13:36Probably gonna be the Philadelphia Phillies
13:38if they stay hot at the right time at the end of the season,
13:40which you saw them flame out against the New York Mets.
13:42But they have the most talent-wise,
13:44let's just say one through nine pitching staff and bullpen
13:47if we combine it.
13:48Now, the Mets are gonna be good.
13:49The Mets already knocked the Phillies out last year
13:50and their estimated starting lineup
13:52with Lindor, Soto, Alonso, Nimmo, Vientos.
13:54That's a really good one through five just to get started here.
13:57But the pitching staff here, always gonna be questions.
14:00Senga, yes, good pitcher.
14:01Has he shown up in the biggest moments?
14:03Maybe not necessarily here.
14:04You take a look at Minea, who's a very good pitcher.
14:06Peterson, okay.
14:07Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning.
14:09See where we're going here?
14:10When you look at the Philadelphia Phillies,
14:11their one through five is pretty strong.
14:13And that's usually what you're going to base the season off of.
14:16Because on any given day,
14:17your pitcher's probably better than the other pitcher.
14:19And you're not saying, okay, once we get through our one-two,
14:21it's a crapshoot three, four, and five.
14:23That's not the case.
14:24I expect better things last year, regular season-wise,
14:26than even what the Mets had last year.
14:28Peter Alonso comes back, expectations higher.
14:30You get Juan Soto, who'll protect a couple guys in that lineup.
14:33We understand that.
14:34The Braves would be okay as well.
14:35I didn't think they had a great off-season.
14:37You're still waiting to see what we're gonna get
14:38out of Strider for this season, as well as Ronald Acuna.
14:41But for me, in the National League,
14:42you look at the price points here, they do make sense.
14:45But I do think the Phillies are plus $6.50, the Mets $6.50.
14:48About right there.
14:49The Dodgers, excuse me, the Braves, at five to one,
14:51I probably would slide them down a little bit lower at this point.
14:53But you will get a pretty good punch out of that NL East there
14:56with the Braves, Mets, and the Phillies.
14:58It is really interesting to me that the Braves are in front
15:02of the Mets and the Phillies,
15:04both with the optimism for Philadelphia
15:06and the proven track record.
15:09Excuse me.
15:10Of course, the Mets got the better of the Phillies
15:11in the DS this year,
15:13made it to the National League Championship Series
15:15against the Dodgers, and then added Juan Soto.
15:18But, Donnie, I think you're correct.
15:20The pitching advantage right now is with Philadelphia,
15:22maybe even in front of the Atlanta Braves.
15:26Max Freed departs.
15:27He's now in the Bronx pitching for the Yankees.
15:30Chris Sale coming back the way he did last year
15:33was sensational to win that National League Cy Young Award.
15:37You would expect the preseason favorite from last year
15:40to win the NL Cy Young Award in Spencer Strider.
15:43Now back in healthy, that will be huge.
15:45Also with the reigning National League MVP
15:47in Ronald Acuna Jr. coming back as well.
15:50The Braves last year, the story for Atlanta DRS
15:52was just how injured they were the entirety of the season.
15:56But this is still a Braves team
15:58that has reached the postseason seven consecutive years,
16:01expected to do the same this season as well.
16:05And I think you described it well there,
16:08who has the highest ceiling in terms of cashing
16:11that National League pennant price.
16:13I think we would expect all three of those teams
16:16out of the NL East to be in the postseason.
16:19In the expanded playoffs now, of course,
16:21around Major League Baseball are three division winners.
16:25Those three wildcard teams,
16:27the opportunity to have three of the five teams
16:29out of the NL East there does seem fitting.
16:32Donnie, anybody outside of the top four,
16:34Dodgers, Braves, Philz, Mets,
16:37that you think could actually challenge
16:39or contend for a National League pennant?
16:42I mean, you probably would start to slide down
16:44to the San Diego Padres,
16:45just because you take a look at the lineup
16:47and it is pretty impressive,
16:48a rise there in that leadoff spot,
16:49Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Cronenworth, Bogarts.
16:51Like they have the firepower to tangle.
16:53The only problem is it's like, okay,
16:55well, you're going to be bumping heads there
16:57with the Dodgers for the majority of the season
16:59being in the division.
17:00And also their pitching staff, it is decent there.
17:02Dylan Cease, very good pitcher.
17:04Michael King, young enough,
17:05a comer that they got in that initial trade
17:07with the New York Yankees to bring him over.
17:09Hugh Darvish, but again,
17:10running a little bit long at this point,
17:12an aging veteran.
17:13So if there's one team outside
17:14that you just would say had the pedigree
17:16and maybe the payroll to try to compete,
17:18it would be the Padres.
17:19You look at the Diamondbacks, they're okay.
17:21The Cubs, we just reviewed them all right.
17:22Brewers, the same thing.
17:23The Reds, some young talent on there
17:25can catch lightning in a bottle.
17:26Then the Giants, we'll see what they do.
17:28But it just feels like that top four
17:30is going to run away with things here.
17:31And also the Dodgers are going to win that division,
17:34which means the Padres are going to be
17:36that wild card team and on the road.
17:38That always hurts because the Phillies,
17:40the Mets, and the Braves
17:41probably going to tangle for that top spot.
17:43And whoever gets that will have an advantage.
17:45But once again, it's the Dodgers' world.
17:47We're just living at it.
17:48And that includes the Padres out on the West Coast.
17:49Do you remember when the Padres
17:50started spending all that money?
17:51And then the Dodgers are like, okay,
17:52let's just ramp it up
17:53and five-fold your salary cap at this point
17:55or whatever you're paying for your team.
17:57It's crazy what the Dodgers have turned into
17:59that juggernaut.
18:00But that price is reflective here.
18:01It is a long season,
18:02but having more good players than anybody else,
18:04that's great for a long season.
18:06It's not a sprint,
18:07which would help some other teams.
18:08The longness of the season actually helps the Dodgers.
18:11DRS, when you look at the odds
18:13to make the postseason out of the National League,
18:15as we showed you,
18:16the Dodgers are minus 10,000.
18:18That takes into account
18:19they're minus 650 to win the National League West.
18:22The Mets and the Braves both minus 325.
18:26The Phils at minus 300.
18:28The Cubbies are the minus money favorites
18:30to win the National League Central.
18:32They're minus 172.
18:33The D-backs and the Padres are slightly in minus money
18:37if you want to count it as such.
18:39Arizona minus 110,
18:40San Diego minus 106.
18:42But it feels like outside of the top four,
18:45in the Cubs,
18:46the favorites to win the National League Central,
18:48you're really looking for some wild card spots at best
18:52unless something crazy happens in the NL West.
18:55And not just because of how great this Dodgers team looks,
18:59starting staff, lineup, up and down, one through nine,
19:02but also their history.
19:03They have won the division in the NL West 11
19:06of the last 12 years.
19:09Donnie, speaking of the Dodgers,
19:11very short price,
19:12but honestly, almost shorter in comparison
19:14to win the World Series at plus 240
19:17than they are to win the National League pennant
19:19at plus 140.
19:21Baseball is a long season.
19:23You can get off to slow starts in regular season games
19:26in late March, in early April,
19:28and in early May.
19:30But assuming the Dodgers,
19:31who will probably be booked as a favorite
19:33in 95% of their games this year,
19:35just make good on a couple of those money line prices
19:38and start off in a good way, DRS,
19:40how quickly do you expect LA to flip
19:43to a minus money favorite to win the National League pennant?
19:48It's probably going to take some doing.
19:50If they just get out to a red hot star,
19:5221-3, which again,
19:53I don't expect them to be that.
19:54That would be even for a great team.
19:56Winning two out of every three games is really good
19:58for them to actually double that, basically.
20:00I don't know if that's going to be the case,
20:01but sometime around mid-May to June,
20:05when if they have a 10-game lead already in the division,
20:08then you're going to start to see
20:09some of those things flip over.
20:10But also understand this.
20:11Handicappers are also shrewd and smart with their money.
20:14Hey, I can't wait to bet the Dodgers plus 140
20:16to win the pennant.
20:17You're going to tie up a plus 140 price
20:19for eight and a half months, it feels like right now,
20:21just to get that back.
20:22You tie up money for 12s and 15 to 1s and 50 to 1s,
20:25not for a plus 140.
20:27So you can do better with your money.
20:29Even if you predict right now,
20:30hey man, Dodgers is going to win it all.
20:32That plus 140 tying up for that long,
20:34it doesn't sound like a great investment overall to me.
20:37No, it certainly doesn't.
20:38But it does also make some sense.
20:41Plus 140 could be relative value
20:44by the time we get to the end of May.
20:46Certainly by the time we reach September and October,
20:49if the Dodgers do exactly what we all expect them to do
20:52with a little bit of wiggle room as well.
20:55I'll just say this.
20:56If the Dodgers win the National League West,
20:58even if they don't have the best record
21:00come the National League postseason in the NL,
21:03they're going to be a minus money favorite
21:05to win the pennant.
21:07Even, I was just thinking to myself,
21:09even if they get to the playoffs,
21:10some weird way or another, they're a wild card team.
21:13You would still almost think the Dodgers
21:15might be minus money or even money to win the pennant.
21:18For a lot of last year,
21:19after Philadelphia got off to a record-setting start,
21:22the Philz were the favorites starting to be that one seed
21:24before they tailed off after the all-star break
21:27and the Dodgers rallied to be that number one seed.
21:30How impactful is home field advantage going to be
21:33by the time we get to the postseason?
21:35We shall see.
21:36All right, enough of the Dodgers and the National League.
21:39Let's talk AL pennant prices.
21:41Can the Yankees win a pennant once again?
21:44Don't forget, last year, their first pennant since 2009.
21:48They will be expected to do so,
21:50but who are their biggest challengers in the AL?
21:53We'll discuss up next on The Early Line.
21:55Over to the American League,
21:57where the second-best price to win a World Series this year
22:00was last year's runner-up.
22:02That would be the New York Yankees.
22:04But the Yanks, in comparison to everybody else
22:06around the American League, a very favorable number.
22:09Half the price of every other AL team to win a World Series,
22:127-1 for the Yanks,
22:14and more than half the price to win the American League pennant as well.
22:18Plus 280 on the Bronx Bombers,
22:20the Orioles, their divisional mates,
22:22at a 6-1 number.
22:24The Astros, a plus 850 price,
22:26and then a slew of teams, DRS,
22:28the Red Sox, Rangers, and M's,
22:30all at a 10-1 number.
22:33Let's start with the gap between those top two teams,
22:37which was really the story of the 2024 NLB campaign.
22:40How tightly contested would the pennant race be
22:42from the odds perspective
22:44between the Yanks and the O's?
22:46Is nearly a $3 then-sum gap
22:49justified between the Pinstripes and the Orioles?
22:52Yeah, I don't know if it is.
22:53Now, on the outset, are the Yankees a very talented team?
22:55Yes, they are.
22:56Did they lose Juan Soto but spend some money,
22:59make some trades that were very shrewd?
23:01Yes, they did.
23:02I'm not worried about the pitching staff,
23:04because let's start there.
23:05Looking at the starting lineup on day number one,
23:07Garrett Cole, Max Freed, Carlos Rondon.
23:09Obviously, you have Luis Gil and Clark Schmidt in that lineup,
23:12which, again, Cole may be the best pitcher overall
23:14in the American League.
23:15Max Freed comes over as that left-handed pitcher
23:17that you needed here to stabilize that lineup.
23:20He comes over from the Atlanta Braves.
23:21You pay him good money.
23:22And then Carlos Rondon, you're still hoping
23:24that he can actually come back and be the quality pitcher
23:26that you signed him big money for.
23:27But you know what I'm worried about here?
23:29Not the bullpen.
23:30Devin Williams coming over, unbelievable closer.
23:32You'll be fine there.
23:33It is the lineup,
23:34because Juan Soto's out there,
23:35which did a great job of protecting Aaron Judge.
23:37That's not going to be there.
23:38So their projected opening day lineup,
23:40Jason Dominguez in the leadoff spot,
23:41leaves a lot to be desired there.
23:43They've been waiting on this kid for a couple years.
23:45Maybe it turns into be a good one.
23:47Cody Bellinger certainly has had his ups and downs
23:49over the past couple of years.
23:50Giancarlo Stanton, who's already telling you right now,
23:52Ben, I can't even swing it back
23:54because my elbow is already jacked up.
23:56Then Jaz Chisholm up and down.
23:57Paul Goldschmidt, maybe get something out
23:59of the aging veteran there, Wells, Volpe, and Cabrera.
24:03So when I look at the Yankees in that van box ballpark,
24:06which is so easy to hit on runs,
24:08do we get that offensive surge that we're going to need?
24:10But the one thing you can lean on is that pitching staff
24:13should be good to go from day number one.
24:16And that's why they're favorites here.
24:18Half of those six best prices DRS
24:20to win the American League pennant
24:22from the American League East,
24:24the Yankees, the O's, and of course the Red Sox.
24:27So let's talk about the other divisions here as well.
24:30From the American League West,
24:31you still have the Astros,
24:32obviously a couple of changing faces.
24:34Kyle Tucker, now in Chicago.
24:36Alex Bregman, now a member of the Red Sox.
24:39It seems like that dynastic run is starting to fade in H-Town
24:43and yet still that third best price.
24:45Last year, a disastrous start for the Scrows
24:48where our joke here was, do we need to hide the fork?
24:51Do we need to get the fork out?
24:52Do we need to put the fork in Houston?
24:55But you see the Rangers and the Mariners
24:57both at a 10 to one price two years ago.
25:00Who was your World Series champ?
25:02That would be the Texas Rangers.
25:04So Donnie, the highest outlook, highest ceiling,
25:07best pennant bet in the American League
25:09from the AL West division is which team?
25:12Yeah, you know, it's funny to look at that too
25:14because you are looking at the Rangers
25:16and saying like, do they have a pedigree?
25:17Yes, they do.
25:18And it's a fun lineup if it's healthy.
25:20Simeon, Seager, Lankford, Peterson, Garcia,
25:23Jung, Carter, Berger, Heim.
25:24Like they can really do some damage
25:26but you're also hoping on the back end of the rotation.
25:29Let's just say you can luck into some things.
25:31Nathan Evaldi, quality pitcher, good starter.
25:33He'll be okay for them.
25:34Jacob deGrom is on that roster.
25:36You say, ah, could he just possibly stay healthy?
25:39And I'm not talking about let's go back five or six years
25:41with the New York Mets
25:42when he was absolutely filthy dominant.
25:43But can he be a top three starter in your rotation?
25:46John Gray can do some jobs.
25:47Molly's there, Bradford.
25:49They do have some options here
25:50where you can catch lightning in a bottle.
25:52The one team I just can't seem to trust though
25:54on a year to year basis is the Mariners here to be honest.
25:57For me, out West, I look more towards obviously Texas.
26:00You look at the Mariners,
26:01like they do have pieces to the puzzle
26:03but isn't it always like,
26:04hey, this young, really good pitching staff
26:06finally gonna take a stand and be dominant
26:09and now we can't be as dominant
26:10because we have to win games two to one.
26:12You get the drift on that.
26:13So for me, I probably would buy a bounce back on Texas here
26:16more than I would, let's just say, the Seattle Mariners.
26:19In those three teams, very tightly compact
26:22atop the AL West odds,
26:23the Astros a slight favorite at plus 170
26:26but both the Rangers and the Mariners
26:28at a two to one number.
26:29All three teams just apart by about 30 cents.
26:33How about the other two teams in the division?
26:35The Angels, Mike Trout, maybe a right fielder.
26:38Anthony Rendon, does he still play baseball?
26:41The answer to the first question is yes.
26:43The answer to the second question is no.
26:45How about that team?
26:46Do they play in Oakland?
26:48No, no longer the Oakland Athletics.
26:51Not even the Sacramento Athletics.
26:53Certainly don't call them the Las Vegas A's yet.
26:56They're just the athletics this year
26:58at a 25 to one number.
27:01I hope they are resilient and win some games.
27:05The RS, your least favorite division in baseball,
27:08the American League Central.
27:10The shortest price out of the Central to win a pennant,
27:13that would be the Tigers and the Twins,
27:15both at an 11 to one price.
27:16The Guardians 14 to one and the Royals
27:19all at a 15 to one number.
27:21Young, competitive teams and rosters,
27:24but no clear cut front runner.
27:26Who do you think is your favorite bet
27:28to win the pennant out of the American League Central?
27:30It's so hard.
27:31You're just looking at the price points there.
27:33Probably makes some sense there just to take the Tigers,
27:35but it feels like that's one of those divisions.
27:37You just put every team in the hat, shake it loose.
27:39Like, oh, look at that,
27:40the Guardians are going to have a good season this year.
27:41Oh, the Twins are actually going to bounce back
27:43and not collapse in the second half of the season.
27:45But if you are just looking at front and start pitching,
27:47Flaherty does go back to Detroit along with Schuylkill,
27:49one of the best pitchers, if not the best,
27:51in the American League, Olsen, Mize, and Jobe.
27:53So they do have some pitchers that they can lean on.
27:55And the lineup is pretty versatile.
27:57You know, if you can get Gleyber Torres here coming over
28:00as a free agent from the New York Yankees,
28:02Riley Green, Kerry Carpenter, Matt Vierling,
28:04not household names, but I'll tell you this right now.
28:07You want to follow me throughout the summer betting
28:09and a lot of those, you know, run props that you like
28:11are hitting props.
28:12They come from Detroit
28:13because they got some pretty good numbers.
28:14They're going to have to score runs
28:15and those guys are going to have to lead in there.
28:17So not household names
28:18that could be big contributors this year.
28:20The Detroit Tigers in that lineup for sure.
28:22We expect Shane Bieber to be back for the Guardians as well.
28:26A former American League Cy Young winner.
28:28In terms of the AL Central prices,
28:30just a dollar separates everybody.
28:32Minnesota in front, the Tigers, Guardians, and Royals.
28:35Minnesota plus 310.
28:36Detroit plus 250.
28:38Cleveland plus 290.
28:39And my team last year, KC, plus 310.
28:43I would also like to note, DRS,
28:45make sure you pay attention to the win totals
28:47for those teams in the American League Central.
28:50Yeah, they got to play everybody in that division.
28:52Should be competitive to get a ton of wins,
28:55but everybody plays the White Sox 19 times.
28:58That's going to be a benefit
29:00for those win totals that will all hover to the low
29:03to mid 80s.
29:05Just something to note.
29:07We'll continue to talk Major League Baseball
29:09on the other side of the break.
29:11Up next here on TEL.
29:14We continue to get you ready for the 2025
29:17Major League Baseball season.
29:19Today is the opening day of spring training
29:21between the Dodgers and the Cubs.
29:23A standalone spring training game.
29:25A ton of standalone games as of late.
29:28A ton of fun to break down and get you ready for.
29:32DRS, the top two teams to win the American League pennant
29:35both hail from the same division, the AL East.
29:38The Yankees in front, the Orioles far behind
29:41in the pennant prices, but maybe not so much
29:43in the divisional numbers.
29:45The Boston Red Sox, also one of those six teams
29:48around the American League, favored to see the postseason
29:51and with a 10 to 1 price or better to win that pennant.
29:55Here are the American League East odds.
29:58The Yankees even money at plus 100.
30:01The O's plus 250 and the Red Sox plus 440.
30:06But let's start with the team that sits
30:08with the longest price right now, who finished
30:10at last fifth out of five teams
30:12in the American League East a year ago.
30:14That would be the Blue Jays, who of course have been
30:16a talk of baseball the last few days
30:18with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
30:20Unable to reach that long-term contract extension.
30:23Vladi setting the deadline for Monday night.
30:26Unable to reach that big new deal.
30:28Will not negotiate through the season.
30:30A contract year and more than likely a free agent
30:33at the end of this campaign.
30:36What will the impact of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s
30:39contract situation in Toronto mean for the rest
30:42of the American League East and maybe the rest
30:44of the AL as a whole?
30:47Normally you'd say nothing, but the fact that you just
30:49see the odds there up on that marker where they're
30:51dead last in the AL East, which means the expectations
30:54are they're going to finish last in the actual division,
30:57which then means around the trade deadline,
30:59well, if we're last and Vladi's not going to want
31:02to come back, then we move and shift him here.
31:04So maybe a balance of power.
31:06I doubt they trade him in the division, which probably
31:08goes out to the other league, and we laughed about
31:10it might be the Dodgers.
31:11But looking at the Blue Jays, the lineup, Springer,
31:13Vladi, Santander was a decent sign in there to give
31:15them a little bit of a power back in that lineup.
31:17Boba Sheppard, that's not a good-looking lineup.
31:19Then you look at the pitching staff, aging veterans,
31:21Kevin Gausman, Jose Barrios at this point, Bassett,
31:24and Scherzer.
31:25I mean, what's the guy going to give you?
31:26One or two innings every week it seems like
31:28before he breaks down?
31:29So I do think it's right.
31:30When you look at the AL East, and by the way,
31:32if Toronto was in one of the central divisions, yeah,
31:34they probably could compete, but they're not.
31:35They're in a big-money division with a lot of really
31:37good baseball teams, and somebody has to come
31:39in last place.
31:40And you look at the rosters, it's probably Toronto, Ben.
31:43Yeah, I would think so, DRS.
31:45The Toronto Blue Jays, the last few years, even entering
31:482024, which was not a great season, of course,
31:51up in the sixth.
31:52They have had the odds optimism to be that playoff team,
31:55to be that wild-card contender, maybe to challenge
31:58for the top spot in the division.
32:00Hasn't actually been realized.
32:03The O's, certainly a young and promising team.
32:06The DRS, the last few years, have taken their lumps,
32:09of course, in the postseason.
32:11Will Baltimore be able to realize that this time around?
32:15What's your outlook for the Orioles this year
32:17after losing Corbin Burns in the offseason?
32:20They just don't have enough pitching.
32:22Like, is that what it comes down to?
32:23Like, you look at the staff.
32:24We just explained to you how good the Yankees were
32:26in both the bullpen and their front-line pitching.
32:28They'll get some hitting.
32:29I like that lineup, 1-9.
32:30It's fun.
32:31You'll be able to bet them.
32:32Camden Yards, the move of the fences back in a little bit
32:34in left field, so maybe more home runs there
32:36that you can take a look at, as opposed to that travesty
32:38that they tried to pass off as helping their pitching staff
32:41and ruining one of the crown jewel ballparks in America.
32:44Zac Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Charlie Morton, Dean Kramer.
32:48Stop the madness, Baltimore.
32:50You better be beating a lot of teams 10-9 this year.
32:5391-71, the record for the O's last year.
32:56They trailed by three games in the American League East.
32:59The Yankees took the top spot in the league
33:01and, of course, in the division.
33:03The Guardians were 92-69, had a six-and-a-half game advantage
33:08for the American League Central.
33:10The Tigers made some noise in the postseason.
33:13The Royals tried but came up short.
33:15All things to keep an eye on.
33:18DRS elsewhere around the American League East.
33:21How are you feeling about the Red Sox?
33:23We talked about the drama this week.
33:25Rafi Devers at third base.
33:27Alex Bregman, the big priced and new acquisition.
33:30And yet all of Devers' boys coming to his defense
33:34to stay at the hot corner.
33:36Is the drama too much to have you buy into Boston?
33:39It's not, because you also look at the closing situation,
33:41the bullpen, the back-end guys.
33:42Liam Hendricks and Roldis Chapman,
33:44a couple flamethrowers back there,
33:45but you always want to look at that starting lineup.
33:47And again, we talk about Rafael Devers, you know him.
33:49Alex Bregman, you know him.
33:50There's a lot of really good bats around him.
33:52Durant in the starting spot.
33:53Kassus, Yoshida, Story, Abreu.
33:55There's some nice pieces to the puzzle.
33:57Then when you get to the starting staff,
33:59how about the acquisition you're getting in Garrett Crochet?
34:01Sort of that left-hander to be the top of the rotation guy.
34:04Houck, Bale had a solid season.
34:06Walker Bueller now on a different roster.
34:08Maybe he can fit in and settle in
34:10as that three or four G Alito cutter Crawford.
34:12There is depth there for the Boston Red Sox.
34:14For me, I actually think the Red Sox
34:16more than the Orioles, to be honest.
34:18Yeah, I think Boston presents some value to DRS.
34:20Great pitching staff.
34:21Garrett Crochet, one of the best last year in the American League.
34:25We'll see if he continues that.
34:27Now a Red Sox and not a White Sox any longer.
34:30Hour number three, up next.