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00:00Welcome back. This is Better Things with Joe Bianca, and we're going to call this episode 2.5, because there's a big race coming up this Saturday.
00:09I'm not sure if you've heard of it. The 148th Kentucky Derby will be run at Churchill Downs, hoping for good weather, clean trips, safe trips, all that.
00:16Field of 20 was drawn today, and I'm bringing in my co-host from the writer's room and the excellent reporter for the TDN, Bill Finley, to help me handicap it. What's up, Bill?
00:24Thank you, Joe, but the key question here is am I an excellent handicapper as well? We'll see.
00:29We'll see. Yeah, that's what the next 20 minutes or so, we're going to fall down. All right, so we'll start with the draw. The draw just happened a couple of hours ago.
00:36Obviously, 20 horses, so there's going to be a lot of shuffling going around, going into that first turn.
00:41I'll ask Bill first, and then I'll give my thoughts. Were your opinions affected at all by anything from the draw?
00:47Maybe a tiny bit, but not a lot. I mean, first of all, anytime a prominent horse draws post one modonogle, that's news.
00:54But having said that, I wouldn't pick modonogle no matter what post position he drew.
00:59But keep in mind, since they brought in that new starting gate at Churchill Downs where they can put all 20 in one gate, the one post is not nearly as bad as it used to be.
01:08As a matter of fact, someone emailed me today, said, oh, I'm off modonogle now because of the draw.
01:13Don't do that. You'll be kicking yourself if he wins.
01:16Then I think the fact that Epicenter drew the three post is pretty relevant as well, because that's going to force his hand a little bit from Joel Rosario.
01:26Actually, I don't think he's going to get the early lead. I actually have kind of an out of the box opinion that I think Summer is tomorrow, actually, who drew outside of him in the four post after he set the pace in the UAE Derby.
01:38I think he'll set the pace, but I can see Epicenter. I can't see Epicenter from the three posts with speed outside of him doing anything other than either trying to take the lead or stay relatively close.
01:48So as for the rest of the draw, you know, nobody got nobody got really nailed terribly.
01:54I mean, Zozos, the 19, Ethereal Road to 20, 20 Port the 18.
01:59I never like those kind of posts, but they were all big long shots to begin with.
02:03So, yeah, I think that those were the two stories.
02:05Number one, Modonigal draws the rail and kind of, you know, how the post positions from the inside with Epicenter play into the whole pace scenario.
02:12Yeah. And well, you mentioned the thing about the they have one gate now.
02:16That's also advantageous to horses who draw either 14 or 15 because they used to have that auxiliary gate with the last six stalls.
02:23And a lot of times horses breaking out of those out of the ends of the two gates kind of come together.
02:29And it wasn't great to be in either of those two post positions.
02:32So it's a good point. I agree with you on Epicenter.
02:35Look, I think his connections probably would have preferred to be a bit further outside.
02:39Definitely outside of Messier. So now they have to send enough to make sure he doesn't get badly shuffled early,
02:45but also likely try to switch him off so he doesn't get cooked by the speed to his outside.
02:50If anyone could do that, it's Joel Rosario. So I'm not too worried about it.
02:53But he's the only horse I like a little bit less after the draw in terms of the main contenders.
02:58The one I like a little bit more is Teba. I mean, I'll get to him in a little bit because he's the freak that he looks like.
03:0412 to 1, which is his morning line, is going to look like a gift.
03:07But the reason I was kind of against him in this race is because he got such a good set up,
03:12just such a clean trip in the Santa Anita Derby. And he just had that outside stalking trip.
03:17He was a little wide short, but he didn't have a straw in his path the whole way.
03:21Now, I think he has a potential to have that trip again in the Derby.
03:25Whereas especially for an inexperienced horse like him, if he had drawn one of those three or four inside posts,
03:31I think I would have liked him a lot less than I do with him drawing 12 outside of all the other main speeds.
03:36So I think I think he's the horse that benefited most from the draw amongst the main contenders.
03:41You know, 12 to 1 on Teba, that's newsworthy as well.
03:44I mean, at the end of the day, the morning line doesn't really make any difference.
03:47But that is much higher than I would have put him at.
03:50I probably would have put him about maybe six to eight to one somewhere in that neighborhood.
03:55But I think it's a reflection, Joe, of kind of what is the bandwagon horse,
04:01the horse with momentum versus the horses everybody is jumping off their bandwagon.
04:05And Teba is definitely a horse where I'm not there, but I get the feeling everybody's kind of going against.
04:12First of all, they found out that he was put on the vets list after his first lifetime start before the Santa Anita Derby.
04:17Also, no matter what he says, and Tim Yaktin seems like a real good guy,
04:21but no matter what he says, the fact that he's only had one workout since the Santa Anita Derby has to trouble you a little bit.
04:28But if you like him, you know, I'm not sure you're going to get 12 to 1.
04:32Maybe you will get eight or nine to one.
04:33And at one point in time after Santa Anita Derby, I actually thought there was some chance he could be the favorite in there.
04:38And that's how much he's cooled off, at least in public opinion.
04:42Yeah, and I totally agree with you that he's probably going to be in the eight or nine to one rate instead of 12 to one.
04:47I think that's a touch high.
04:49But even then, like I said, if he's the freak that he looks like,
04:52eight or nine to one is going to look like a big overlay if he's able to step up once again
04:57and run as good or better in the Derby as he did in the Santa Anita Derby,
05:02because his buyer is tied for the highest of any three-year-old so far this year.
05:06His Thorograph figure, he ran a negative 0.5 in the Santa Anita Derby.
05:10Nobody else in this field has run below a zero.
05:13So he's, you know, figure-wise is the horse to beat.
05:15Obviously, there's a lot of variables and a lot of questions about him.
05:18But so let's segue from that into the main contenders that you think you have to use.
05:23And we'll jump over to maybe someone who's a little bit of a shorter price that you're trying to toss maybe out of Exactus or Trifectas.
05:30I think the ones you have to use are Epicenter.
05:32Even with the draw, he showed his versatility in the Louisiana Derby, which I thought was so key for him.
05:39I just think visually that was the most impressive prep race of any throughout the entire season for me.
05:45So I think, you know, at seven to two, am I rushing to bet him at the windows? No.
05:49But I think he's a horse that you definitely have to use.
05:51And with Joel Rosario in the Iron Sky, who never panics, even with that inside draw, I think he's going to end up being OK.
05:57You know, as for the other top contenders, you know, in the top tier, I would put Epicenter, Zandan, Teba, Messier, and White Abario.
06:06That's my tier one, if you guys want to put those up. Epicenter, Zandan, Teba, Messier, and White Abario.
06:11I think those are the most likely winners in the race.
06:14They have individual question marks.
06:16I'm against one of them at least.
06:18And I'm going to get to that in the next segment.
06:20But, Bill, how would you lay out your first tier of the major contenders in the race?
06:25Yeah, mine is pretty similar to yours, Joe.
06:27And, you know, I kind of am hesitant to say what I'm about to say because, you know, from one standpoint, a handicap in a race like this where the race is so wide open.
06:35And, you know, we'll get into it.
06:37Zandan, a 3-1 Morningland favorite, I don't think he's going to be 3-1.
06:40I think he's going to be 9-2 or something like that.
06:42That's another thing in the line that I disagree with.
06:45This race is way too wide open to have a 3-1 favorite in it.
06:48But, I mean, Zandan is obviously in that tier.
06:52But I want to come up with that wise guy 25, 26-1 shot in here.
06:57And, you know, maybe between now and the time we go to the windows on Saturday, I will.
07:01But right now, I'm struggling to find that.
07:03So I would say that Zandan, Messier, and Epicenter are my three top-tier horses.
07:11I'm one less than you.
07:13I'm going to go with the kind of anti-wise guy line of thinking.
07:18I'm going to throw a table out.
07:19So those would be my top tier.
07:21But, you know, geez, good thing I do this for free because I'm not earning my money.
07:25I think I just gave out the first three favorites.
07:27Oh, boy, Bill, good job.
07:28No, but that's what this is for.
07:29We want to establish the main contenders so we can talk about who we like a little bit better
07:33or who we're leaning towards tossing.
07:35You said Teba.
07:36You know, the horse for me that I honestly am most against of those horses is Zandan.
07:41And you said he's 3-1.
07:42I don't disagree with you.
07:43I think he'll probably be somewhere in the 4-1 to 5-1 range.
07:46So it's not as if there's a 5- or 6-horse field and a 3-5 favorite and you're trying to toss the horse and get paid.
07:51Obviously, he's got to be included somewhere on your multis and not somewhere on your tris and supers.
07:57But I just think back to when we were talking to Steve Kornacki last week about the pace of the derby
08:03and the trend towards front-running horses or at least horses close to the pace winning the derby for the last decade plus
08:10since they instituted the point system.
08:12And Orb, he mentioned, was the only one really in 2013 to really come from far back.
08:17And of the main contenders, I think Zandan is going to be the furthest back of them.
08:22I think everybody else, you know, I was looking at the thorough graph race shape earlier today for the race.
08:27And, you know, Timeform US has the race shapes as well.
08:29It really helps you envision the pace.
08:31So let me just let me find that because Zandan was the only one that was not going to be in the first half of the field.
08:39I think they had Messier leading early on, followed by Teva, Simplification, Happy Jack, White Abario, Charge It, and Cyberknife
08:48with a gap to the next flight led by Zozos and Epicenter.
08:50You seem to think that Epicenter is going to be a bit closer.
08:52I tend to agree with that, but I don't think he's going to be up on the pace.
08:55The only horse that only leaves Zandan of the main contenders was likely to be in the back half of the field for the first six furlongs.
09:02And, you know, since they moved to that qualifying point system, it takes out a lot of the cheap speed that we used to see in the derby.
09:08The sinister ministers, the key entries, the horses that really had no realistic chance to win the race,
09:13but served as a fly in the ointment for the other pace players.
09:17So that's the question you have to answer.
09:19If you're going to take Zandan at 3-1 or 4-1, you either have to think that he's good enough to break that recent history,
09:26or you have to think that the pace is going to be so hot that all those other contenders who are going to be up near the pace
09:31and are going to get the jump on him are going to come back to him.
09:35What's your feeling, Bill? Do you agree with any of that?
09:37But if you don't, who else do you think might be a little bit vulnerable?
09:40So I do and I don't.
09:42And I looked this up and did the studying of it.
09:45Since 2014, every derby, no derby winner has been further back than third in any point of call in the race.
09:55That's obviously something that's significant.
09:58Now, it's interesting when the point system came in in 2012, the first two years, it was horses coming from off the pace.
10:04I'll have another was sixth and seventh early on in his trip.
10:07And Orb came from 16th to win in 2013.
10:10But, Joe, you know, yeah, I'm keeping that in mind.
10:13But there's a couple of things going here.
10:16And you said I don't we don't know what the pace is going to be.
10:20And it's not the type of race where you can either say definitively it's going to be a really hot pace or you can say definitively it's going to be on the slow side.
10:28I just don't know. And, you know, we won't know until a quarter mile into the race.
10:32I don't think it's going to be something where they go to the half and 48.
10:36So if if they if the pace is decent and I think it will be, quote unquote, at least decent, that'll be five percent.
10:44And I'm a fan. I think even if he is a little bit compromised by the recent style of the winners of the Kentucky Derby, I do think he's perhaps good enough to overcome that.
10:55I mean, you know, he's not going to be up on the top flight early on, but neither is he going to be like Zenyatta 25 lengths back, anything like that either.
11:03So, you know, that's one we'll disagree on. I'm in the Zen and camp.
11:08But I do understand you do make some valid points.
11:11Yeah, I mean, that kind of leads into the pacing of your discussion, because like you, I think it's going to be somewhere in the middle.
11:17I envision is twenty two and four.
11:20Twenty three flat for the quarter, maybe forty six and one forty six and two for the half, one ten and three, one ten and four for three quarters.
11:27I think that forbidden kingdom coming out of the race was a big deal in terms of the Derby pace, because I just felt like he was the most the most headstrong of those horses who prefer to be up near the lead.
11:39Now, you do still have classic causeway in there.
11:41You do still have Messier in there.
11:43You got a happy Jack.
11:44You got a couple of horses that like to be up near the pace and summer is tomorrow.
11:47You mentioned I'll talk to you in a second about him.
11:49But I think it's going to be that moderate pace.
11:52And, you know, if this were one of those derbies where you don't really have any faith in the horses who are going to be up near the lead or up in the second flight, then I'd be more inclined to trust and in at seven to two or four to one or nine to two.
12:05I think that so many of the main contenders are going to be closer than him.
12:09Obviously, you got to throw them into your underneath and your tries and your supers.
12:12But just on the one end, he's the one who's going to be a short price that I think you're trying to beat.
12:16So I think Messier is going to go to the front.
12:18I just think especially now with Forbidden Kingdom out, Messier can do what he does best.
12:23Go fast early.
12:24Try to keep going late.
12:25We saw in the Bob Lewis, which to me up until Epicenter and the last round of preps was clearly the most impressive three-year-old race of the year when he took that heat in the Bob Lewis and ended up winning off by 14 lengths with a 103 buyer.
12:38I just think with a horse who has that much natural speed, even if you think there's some other speed on paper, you go and you say, catch me if you can.
12:45But you think that there's going to be someone else in front.
12:47So how do you see the first and second flight shaping up?
12:49Well, so I have a wise guy horse for who's going to set the pace.
12:52I wish they took betting on who's going to be in front after three furlongs.
12:56When you get a chance, go back and look.
12:58And to prepare for this, I did my homework.
13:00I looked at all the major preps I knew were going to be talking about the UAE Derby.
13:03This horse looked like he was running in the fourth at Los Alamitos.
13:07And matter of fact, he got out there and the jock was just hustling him right to the lead.
13:12Matter of fact, at some point in the race, the announcer, I believe it's Terry Sparco, even said something to the effect, he'll never hold on after this.
13:18Now, they don't put up fractional times there.
13:21So you don't know if he was going 45 or 48 or whatnot.
13:24But you know, and then I didn't look at his other races.
13:27But in the racing form comments, it also like straight to the lead, straight to the lead, straight to the lead, etc.
13:32And, you know, if you're if you're aboard a 50 to one shot that has ample early speed, why would you not take advantage of your only chance to win this race?
13:43Which would be to get out front and just hope to God nobody really goes after you.
13:47So I do think he's going to take the lead.
13:50But and I think there's going to be a grouping right behind him of sort of the three or four horses that you mentioned.
13:56And, you know, it's funny because we were first talking about this.
13:59We were saying how there's going to be all this speed in the derby, all the preps being run wire to wire.
14:03And then it didn't turn out that way.
14:05I am wondering what they'll do with Messier, because I understand Forbidden Kingdom was in the race.
14:11And he's, you know, a sprinter taken off like hell bent for leather.
14:14But, you know, it was notable that they did take Messier back off the pace in the Santa Anita Derby.
14:19So, I mean, I think you get this sometimes there's five or six horses in here.
14:24They all want to be third early.
14:26Yeah, I agree that there isn't there aren't as many runoff speeds.
14:30I thought, you know, honestly, I thought Classic Causeway going in the race as much as I like Brian Lynch.
14:34I just I don't know. Maybe he'll prove me wrong.
14:36But I just feel like he seems kind of like that cheap speed now, whereas you never would have said that after the Sam Davis.
14:42You thought he was one of the top five, maybe top three contenders in his three year old crop.
14:46And now he just kind of looks like, you know, like I said, that fly in the ointment for a horse like Messier.
14:50He has a better chance to win.
14:52But so then I kind of want to get into that and horses that you need to toss, because, you know, unless unless you're super rich,
14:59you can't afford to use every horse in the derby and tries and supers.
15:03You got it. You got to take a stand somewhere and toss out some horses.
15:06I think there are maybe a half dozen or so horses that I feel capable that I feel confident, confident in tossing completely.
15:13And summer is tomorrow. Like you said, you know, I just if he does get fried up in that pace.
15:18Otherwise, I think I think he's too slow no matter what.
15:20Happy Jack, who I think is too slow.
15:22Barbara Road, I like maybe a little bit to get third or fourth.
15:25But in terms of the top two spots, can't use them.
15:28Classic Causeway is another one like the much earlier in the year.
15:31I don't think he's going to see it out.
15:32Ethereal Road and Tis the Bomb.
15:34Those are my six. Those are my main six tosses.
15:37How do you feel about that, Bill?
15:39Is there anybody else you would add or take out?
15:41No, I'm on board that pretty much the same as you, but I'll just take it a little bit further.
15:47And this is this.
15:49The one thing I'll step out on a limb a little bit on is that I'm going to toss to all the Florida horses.
15:55Why to bury a simplification and charge it?
15:58And matter of the three, I mean, I wrote after his very nice second place finish in the Florida Derby about how impressed I was to charge it.
16:06But, you know, backing off that a little bit.
16:08I just think that the weakest preps this year.
16:13And it's unusual because these are usually the two strongest were the Florida Derby and then the Arkansas Derby.
16:18I don't know if you met.
16:19I don't think you mentioned Cyberknife was 21 in the morning line.
16:22Arkansas Derby every single year comes up tough.
16:25And this year, that whole Arkansas route to the Kentucky Derby was really weak.
16:29I mean, who know how won the Rebel at 500 to one or whatever made absolutely no sense whatsoever.
16:34So I'll toss the Arkansas Derby horses and I'll toss the Florida Derby horses.
16:39And then, you know, obviously the Ethereal Road and Tawny Port and Prince Pioneer Medina, you know, big long shots that I don't see any reason to include them.
16:49And then another one. I mean, this isn't necessarily stepping out on a limb either.
16:52But I think Tis the Bomb is a really nice horse.
16:55Understand why, you know, if you get the chance to run in the Derby, you do it.
17:00But he doesn't belong in this race. He's not.
17:02You can't run on the dirt.
17:05And, you know, and I'm a little surprised Ken McPeak went this route because he had all these great plans to go over to England.
17:11And, you know, he would have been, you know, far from a cinch in any of those big races.
17:16But, you know, I think trying to win those races over there, like the 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby and all that, would be a much easier task for this horse rather than going back to dirt where he just totally bombed earlier this year and trying to win there.
17:31So I'm not on Tis the Bomb.
17:33Yeah, and I think he's the kind of horse that he's probably he's not going to be a short price, but I think he's going to be maybe in the 15 to 20 to one range.
17:40And I, you know, he should be he could be 150 to one in that race.
17:44And I wouldn't use him. So even, you know, it's one of those things where sometimes there are long shots.
17:48And just because they're a big price doesn't necessarily mean they're good value.
17:51If you see a horse that's 30 to one that on paper should be 300 to one doesn't mean you should throw the horse in.
17:56But then who should we throw in?
17:57What long shots should we use that you think, you know, maybe not even not just on the win end, but you could slide into the bottom half and exact.
18:04I got a couple, but only your ears for first.
18:07Well, I want to comment a little bit about the and I'll get right to that, Joe.
18:10But I call it the mind that bird phenomenon.
18:12Ever since that race, you notice there's no longer any hundred and fifty to one shots in the Derby.
18:17Yeah, everybody's trying to find the next mind that bird.
18:20There are horses in the Derby that should be 500 to one and they all go off at 36 to one because everybody and it's, you know, amateur hour, which you understand, you know, your aunt Millie is betting the Derby.
18:31She doesn't bet any other race all year long.
18:33And, you know, oh, I want to go try to find that long shot.
18:36So, you know that.
18:37And if you're playing the lower price horses, that's actually an advantage to you because it does tilt the odds when the long shots are over bet.
18:46You're talking about with the points schedule.
18:48It's a formful race.
18:50Since they do that to not just the pace, it's been very formful.
18:53Right.
18:54So my kind of like a horse that is being overlooked, the 21 shot in the morning line.
18:59I'll give you to want to smile.
19:01Happy.
19:02Well, I love this horse at the beginning of the year.
19:05And it goes back to that Kentucky Jockey Club stakes where he whipped wide a burial in there.
19:11And that turned out to be such a key race for him.
19:13Why did Barry and classic causeway.
19:15So he whipped the Florida Derby winner in the Tampa Bay Derby winner in the race.
19:20And, you know, he keeps he's run OK this year, but not to expectations.
19:25But I still remember what he said on our podcast.
19:28Can it be.
19:29He says this was before the bluegrass.
19:32But he said, I'm sitting on a keg of dynamite.
19:34I don't think he has asked this horse for his very best yet off his bluegrass stakes.
19:40I don't like him a bit.
19:42He had a perfect trip.
19:43Zandon, who had much worse trip than him, had no problem getting by him.
19:48But I still think this is the one horse in there.
19:51You know, the the the winner of the Derby is almost always the horse.
19:56It's going to improve five lengths off their last prep race.
19:58This is the horse, I think, has the best chance to improve five lengths off the last pressure.
20:02Last prep race.
20:03Excuse me.
20:04The other one.
20:05I don't know if I'll use this horse or not.
20:07But, you know, actually, Joe, I want to see your opinion on this.
20:10What do you do a crown pride?
20:11I wouldn't have given a Japanese horse, you know, any chance at all in this race up to the Breeders' Cup.
20:17The Japanese horses, whenever they came over the U.S., just didn't do a thing.
20:20Now, all of a sudden, it's not just in the U.S. and the Breeders' Cup, but in Saudi Arabia and Dubai as well.
20:24Can't lose.
20:25So, you know, I know his main prep was in the UAE Derby.
20:28But, you know, what do you do with the hot the factor of how hot these Japanese horses are?
20:34For that reason, I would probably throw them in, you know, to clunk up and be somewhere involved if you're playing tries or supers or something.
20:40Definitely.
20:41No, I agree.
20:42I'm in on him, too.
20:43I was looking at the thorough graph sheet for the Maidan races.
20:47He ran a 2.5 in the UAE Derby, which is a slight cut below the top contenders, but not by a lot.
20:54Like I said, the only horse that has run a negative figure is Teba.
20:58Everyone else is in that 1 to 2 range.
21:00So that leaves you with a lot of contenders and a lot of horses that, you know, I like.
21:04We're going to talk about the Oaks quickly in just a second.
21:06There are more horses that I like to win this race at a big price than the Oaks.
21:10And with the Oaks, it's going to be so hard to beat all four of those monsters.
21:14Like you might be able to get some prices underneath.
21:16Yeah, I totally agree with you there.
21:18But in this race, like, yeah, there's a handful, like I said, the tier one horses, like the upper upper echelon.
21:24But it's such a small gap back to everybody else.
21:27If we hadn't drawn so poorly, I would have liked Zozos a lot more in this race.
21:31But I still think he's going to get lost on the board and be about 25 or 30 to one horse.
21:35It's lightly raced, kind of paired up figures last time.
21:39Obviously, he was no match for Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby, but he's had a lot of time to develop since then.
21:44I think he could be moving forward more so than Epicenter.
21:47Like you said, Crown Pride, smile happy.
21:50I love him as a horse just like you.
21:52And I think he's super talented and is going to have a big summer and fall no matter what happens in the Derby.
21:57Just find it hard to see him sticking out a mile and a quarter.
22:00I just thought he got blown by by Zandon in the stretch.
22:03And I think there are horses that he faster horses he's going to have to chase.
22:06And then horses like Zandon who he's going to have to hold off from the back of the pack.
22:10And if this were, you know, even the pregnants, if he could just have a smaller field, a little bit better set up going a mile and three sixteenths.
22:17I'd like him a little bit more going to use them underneath.
22:20I kind of agree with you with charge it.
22:22I just you know, he was he was a good second in that race, but I didn't like the way he was weaving all over the place in the stretch.
22:27And that's kind of how I feel about the Florida horses in general.
22:30Like that was such a stagger fest late.
22:32I do like why to Mario.
22:33I think he fits on figures.
22:35I think he's he's moved forward every single race.
22:37He's had that constant progression, which you like to see.
22:39But I yeah, I have that vision of the vital furlong coming home in almost 14 seconds in the Florida Derby.
22:46And I just I wonder about those horses seeing it out for another eighth of a mile in the Derby.
22:51I think Pioneer Medina is kind of interesting for the same reason that I thought Zozo's was interesting.
22:56I thought he he kind of jumped forward a lot in those Louisiana races.
22:59And he ran third or fourth in the Risen star and then came back and paired up that number last time out.
23:05So I think he could have another move forward in him and get into the number at a big price.
23:09I think he's going to be upwards of 40 to one.
23:11So I like him a little bit, you know, 20 part.
23:14I gave a little bit of a look, too, but this is going to be his third race in five weeks.
23:18I know, Bill, you think that's way too much racing for a horse.
23:21And I agree with you there.
23:23You know, I think those are those are kind of the horses that I'll try to get a little funky with and try to get them into the tries and supers of the of the, you know, tier two horses.
23:33I would say the one I don't like is Modonogal.
23:35I just think he's going to be too far back.
23:36And especially with the rail, he's going to get shuffled so far back.
23:40He's the kind of horse that I feel like is going to be 17th or 18th early at like eight or nine to one.
23:45And people are going to be ripping up those tickets.
23:47So that that's that's where I stand.
23:48Any other thoughts on the Derby, Bill, before we move to the Oaks?
23:51Well, we're going to pin each other down and get a pick.
23:54You want to pick?
23:55All right.
23:56It's funny.
23:57As we're sitting here, going back and forth, I'm Messier Xanded, Messier Xanded, Messier Xanded.
24:02All right.
24:03I got it.
24:04You know, I can't be so indecisive.
24:05I can't be so wishy washy.
24:06And I know you you've made some valid points about him, but I'll pick Xanded about that.
24:13His bluegrass was the of the major preps over the final ones, the 100 point races.
24:19He was the one that I said, wow.
24:22Yes.
24:23No, I mean, for that reason, there I go.
24:25Yeah, I think we're both going to chalk it out here.
24:28I'm going to go I'm going to go with Messier.
24:30I think he'll probably be six to one, five to one, six to one, something like that.
24:33He definitely won't be favored.
24:34I wanted to go with Epicenter, but, you know, the draw worried me a little bit.
24:38And I think I think Messier, if he can, if I can either get loose or lay off summers
24:42tomorrow, like Bill is thinking is going to happen.
24:44I think he's just he's the horse to beat.
24:45He's the most talented horse in the race, except for maybe Teba, who obviously has his
24:49own concerns.
24:50I like him a little bit as well.
24:51But I'm going to go with I'm going to take Messier.
24:53And it's so much depends on the board.
24:55You know, I mean, it's hard to it's hard to pick horses on Monday when my opinion might
24:59change completely by Saturday based on the way those horses are bad.
25:03But yeah, I'll take Messier.
25:04And I hope people are prepared for the potential of former Bob Baffert trainees running one,
25:09two in this derby, because I think it's got a legitimate possibility, especially if the
25:14pace kind of moderates the way I think it might.
25:17Joe, let me give you a stat on Messier that's going to even strengthen your opinion.
25:21Bob Baffert, including Medina Spirit.
25:23Well, I'm going to include him.
25:24It was won the Kentucky Derby seven times.
25:27Four of those winners, four, including Authentic and Medina Spirit, in their prep
25:34and their well, it was the weird year with Authentic.
25:36So I just put it this way.
25:37Four of them ran second in the San Diego Derby.
25:40So four of the seven Kentucky Derby winners ran second in the San Diego Derby.
25:44And I know the name of the program is Tim Yak Teen.
25:47And I'm not saying it's it's you know, he's a I'm sure he's in there doing a good job
25:51and everything.
25:52But I still consider these Bob Baffert horses.
25:55I mean, he's had them 98 percent of their career, you know, and laid the foundation
26:01to get there.
26:02So I think if you're a big fan of Baffert in the Derby, and how could you not be?
26:06I think you have to like Messier and probably Dave as well.
26:09Yep.
26:10Definitely both going to be A's on my tickets.
26:12We didn't really talk about the multi-race bets because it's hard to figure out how
26:15those are going to shake out until you see all the undercard races.
26:17But I think that, yeah, those would be my A's along with I guess I'd throw in
26:21Whiter Barrio as an A, as well as Epicenter and then Zanden probably like a B or a C.
26:25So let's just talk briefly about the Oaks.
26:27I wouldn't normally do this on a Kentucky Derby preview show, but it's such a great race.
26:31It's the best Kentucky Oaks I can remember.
26:33I'm honestly surprised that it drew 14 horses.
26:36I said this earlier on the Writer's Room that I thought this might be an
26:39undersubscribed Oaks because it doesn't always get 14 horses.
26:42I thought it might get 9 or 10.
26:44But, you know, God bless people who were willing to take a shot even though we have
26:49these four major contenders in this race.
26:51And obviously the major contenders, Echo Zulu, Nest, Kathleen O, and then who's
26:56the fourth one, Bill?
26:57I'm forgetting.
26:58Secret O.
26:59Secret O, of course.
27:00I was still thinking about her maybe running in the Derby.
27:02So, you know, I'll just break it down like this.
27:05I don't think you're going to beat any of these four horses on top.
27:08I think, you know, you use those four in the pick fours and the pick fives.
27:11You're going to be safe going through that race.
27:13The idea is probably to get somebody else underneath for the try.
27:16Maybe, maybe the X-Acto if a couple of these fillies don't show up.
27:20I was against Echo Zulu going into this race because I think on paper she's the
27:24slowest of these four major contenders, which says a lot about the quality
27:27of the field considering she's a champion.
27:29She's an undefeated champion and she's probably the slowest of the top four
27:33contenders.
27:34But I think the pace isn't going to be that fast.
27:36I kind of think that she's going to be loose on the lead.
27:38You know, I think that hurts Kathleen O a little bit.
27:42But the horse I cannot get past and the horse whose race I cannot forget was
27:46Nest in the Ashland.
27:48I just thought of all of these really, really impressive races by the three-year-old
27:52fillies in the last month or two, she just looks so good.
27:55Arada Ortiz was sitting on a keg of dynamite to use Kenny McPeak's expression.
27:59That whole way went right wide around both turns.
28:01It didn't matter.
28:02She exploded away in the stretch and just won in an absolute canter.
28:06I don't care what was in the race behind her.
28:08Just visually, I thought that was the best race of any filly this year.
28:11Bill, how do you, how do you, how do you look at the Oaks?
28:14All right, I'm going to reserve the right to not make my pick till Friday.
28:17A couple of things and you're right.
28:20These are four beasts, these four horses.
28:23I mean, absolute beasts.
28:24Any one of the four in a normal year could be a two-to-one, eight-to-five favorite in
28:30the Kentucky Oaks.
28:31And now, I mean, again, I totally disagree with the line maker there, but Secret Oath
28:35six-to-one, you know, but that does speak to the strength of the race.
28:40So a couple of thoughts.
28:41I am like you.
28:42I'm not an Echo Zulu.
28:44I did not like her return to the races where she won by a nose as a huge favorite, ran
28:49the slowest buyer figure of her career as a three-year-old versus her two-year-old numbers.
28:54You know, can she move up off that race?
28:56Of course she can.
28:57But that was a, to me, not a good starting point, the way she was really, you know, eked
29:04out the victory and didn't get a big figure.
29:07And then I would have, two weeks ago, I would have said that I would be loading up on Kathleen
29:11O, because I love that horse.
29:13But I do listen to what the clockers and the experts have to say, and I think you have
29:18to.
29:19And everybody was panning her workout the other day.
29:21And, you know, that's, you know, that's relevant.
29:24It really was.
29:25I mean, you would, the last thing you would think was that a horse train by Shug McGahee
29:29wouldn't be sharp and ready for the biggest race and start of her career.
29:32But, you know, if it's just one guy saying it, I think, okay, but everybody said it was
29:37a lousy workout.
29:38And so everybody's going to jump off their bandwagon.
29:41So that leaves me with Nesta, I suppose, and Secret Oath.
29:44And, you know, we'll see.
29:47I don't think Secret Oath is going to be six to one, though.
29:49That's very high.
29:50Yeah.
29:51Unless people are totally off of her because of the Arkansas Derby.
29:54But you can go watch that race.
29:55She ran great.
29:56I don't care what the figure says.
29:58I don't care where she finished.
29:59She ran a big race in that day against males.
30:02Yeah.
30:03You know, if you want, XBTV sponsors The Writers Room.
30:06You can go Google.
30:07You can go search all those workouts for those contenders, and you can judge for yourself
30:11whether or not you thought Kathleen O's work was great or terrible, as people are saying.
30:15So that's what's nice is, like, we got a lot of new technology, a lot of new streaming
30:19services that we can look at the works for ourselves.
30:21But, yeah, I'm sticking with Nesta on top.
30:24She would be my key horse, you know, in terms of just a couple of long shots I might throw
30:29in underneath to try to spice up the tries.
30:31I think it's going to be hard to get these horses in the exact up.
30:33I like Venti Valentine a little bit.
30:35I think her race two back was big.
30:37She's going to be forgotten a little bit after her last race wasn't very good.
30:40Hidden Connection, who our co-host John Green likes a lot.
30:43I think that she's rounding in the top form.
30:45Desert Dawn and Goddess of Fire.
30:47Now, Goddess of Fire is tough to take because she just got, you know, smacked by Kathleen O.
30:51But if you think that Kathleen O isn't going to run her good race, maybe she could sneak
30:55into the try as well.
30:56So it's going to be a great, great weekend of racing, and it's one of those, you know,
31:00we talked about this before, but this needs twin billing.
31:02You know, usually the Oaks is kind of the lead up to the Derby, the appetizer, but this
31:06year the Oaks and the Derby should be on equal footing on the marquee, and we're very much
31:10looking forward to it.
31:11Bill Finley, thanks for coming on and talking to me.
31:12It's fine, Bill.
31:13Thanks for having me.
31:14Yeah, absolutely.
31:15So thank you all for watching.
31:16This is Better Things, Episode 2.5.
31:18I think we'll be back with Episode 3 fairly soon.
31:20And, you know, best of luck with all your Derby bets and your Oaks bets.
31:23It's going to be a tremendous weekend, and thanks again for tuning in.