Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Welcome back. This is Better Things with Joe Bianca. Episode 4. We have an exciting
00:05announcement for this episode. We have our first sponsorship. It's a little
00:08outfit called the Breeders' Cup. You may have heard about them. Obviously, the
00:12gold standard in world championship racing. They're gonna be sponsoring a
00:15segment where I give out plays for that weekend's Breeders' Cup Challenge races.
00:19For this week, it's the Haskell. Really exciting race. Really star-studded race.
00:23So stay tuned later on after the interview and we'll have my plays for
00:27the Haskell coming up this Saturday at Monmouth. But in the meantime, I had a
00:30really cool chat yesterday with Michael Baychok, who's a public handicapper for
00:34the New Orleans Times-Picayune. He famously won the NHC, winning a
00:38million-dollar prize back in 2012. Very smart, very sharp guy who has a lot of
00:44opinions on everything racing, even a little bit of politics as well. He's a
00:47political consultant in his regular life. So we had a lot of fun, talked about a
00:51lot of stuff. Check it out in our interview with Michael Baychok.
00:59Alright, so we're thrilled to welcome to Better Things with Joe Bianca. This time,
01:04Michael Baychok, who was a 2012 NHC winner, won a million dollars for getting
01:08that contest home. Very outspoken guy in racing. I've actually been looking
01:11forward to this since I hit him up. Michael Baychok, welcome to the show.
01:15It's great to be here, Joe. I'm really looking forward to whatever we're gonna
01:19talk about. Yeah, we're giving Michael very few details about what we're actually gonna talk
01:24about. But let's start with this. I read an interesting story about how you got
01:27into racing, and I honestly couldn't believe that the interviewer didn't ask
01:30a follow-up question. James Carville took you to the track. That was your first
01:34time? Yeah, I know. That's hard to believe. So yeah, so I was probably 12, 13. James
01:41Carville worked for my dad. James was a lawyer back then, not a very good one,
01:46which is why he was babysitting me on a Saturday instead of doing a deposition,
01:51which I think my dad was doing. So he said, hey, you gotta watch Mike for the
01:56day. And James said, fine, but I'm going to the track. And so dad said, fine, take
02:01you to the track. So we went to New Orleans. We loaded up. He must have
02:05been probably, I'm guessing, 26, 28, something like that. And we loaded up in
02:11some junker with his buddies, his degenerates, and we went to the
02:17fairgrounds. And then the story becomes very similar to many other people. I
02:23just fell in love with it. I love the competition. I love being able to decipher
02:29the numbers and try to pick winners against other people who are much older
02:34than me. So we just kept doing it and doing it. And then my dad got a little
02:39jealous, I think, because he's like, well, you're going to the track again
02:42with James. I'm going to go. And so we started going and he got into horse
02:45racing, bought some horses. And that's how I got into it. What's the follow-up
02:50question?
02:51No, I mean, that's the whole story. It sounds like you rarely hear about the
02:58kid who gets his parents into racing. Usually it goes the other way around,
03:01but it sounds like you're still into racing.
03:04My dad passed away in 94. But yes, we went to the Derby. I believe the first
03:10Derby we went to was 79. And then we went for like, 15 years in a row. Maybe
03:1920 years in a row. I think my last Derby with him was 1994, which was the
03:24year that he died. So yeah, we did not miss a Derby for the day we started
03:30going. And he, again, he took me to Saratoga for the first time, the only
03:34time until my past few trips. And I'm going to say 1980 was, I think it was
03:40the Wise Times Travers. We went for the Travers. And we went up there. And then
03:46I did not go back until probably 2014. And I rarely missed a summer, although
03:51this summer is looking a little iffy, whether I get back up there.
03:55Well, we hope to see you up there. But you're known for a lot of things these
04:00days, but you were first best known for winning the NHC in 2012. Big purse,
04:06obviously, and had to be the highlight of your life as a horse player. But how did
04:10you get to that point where you could win a contest like that? There had to be a
04:13lot of hard lessons along the way playing in handicapping tournaments. What were
04:17the things that you took from some of the earlier struggles to help you get
04:20there?
04:20Well, you know, that's really what it was, Joe, it was learned, learned by
04:24trial by fire, because there weren't any books written on it. There weren't any
04:28articles written on, you know, basically, back then, Pete Ford and Tal's book,
04:33which was a, you know, great book about the contest player. Not not just because
04:37I'm in it, but it was just it was the first and probably only book written
04:40about how to win a contest that came later. So it was trial by fire. And I was
04:46doing it wrong for so many years. I say that, but I won second place in one of
04:52the you bet. I don't know if you remember you bet. That was the premise. I think
04:56Twin Spires ultimately bought them. There was a probably a two or three month
05:01contest live money. And I'm gonna not remember when it was, but I think it was
05:07a few CIA Pegasus Derby year.
05:10Yeah, that's right. And so I ended up winning second place in that for 20,000.
05:17And so, you know, I kind of thought and that was live money, though. So the other
05:21the NHC, of course, was $2 win place. And I made the mistake that most people make,
05:27which I was making in my betting as well at the time was just, you know, try to
05:30pick winners. And I know that sounds counterintuitive to a lot of people,
05:36I know that sounds counterintuitive to a lot of people, maybe who are listening to
05:39this for, you know, just getting in the horse racing. But it's the most important
05:45lesson that I ever learned in gambling and horse racing is, you know, you have to
05:48look for value. And just picking winners, especially at horse racing, is just not
05:54going to get you to be a profitable player. And especially in contests, I think
05:58that that axiom is probably, you know, multiplied many times because picking
06:04winners in $2 win place contests, will just it'll just you'll just lose, you know,
06:10you have to find some value. So I ended up one year at the fairgrounds, I don't
06:15know what it was mid 2000s, entering a contest just because I was there. I had
06:20never heard about the NHC might have been like 2008 or something. And I ended up
06:25finishing fifth, I missed it by like, I don't know, a dime to go to Vegas. And
06:29then I started looking into seeing like, what is all this about? Right? And so I
06:34qualified the next few years. In 2011, I finished 23rd. And that was the first
06:39year that I walked into that room, you know, with 400 500 other people and really
06:44thought that I had a chance to win. And I think that was part of it, too. I'd
06:47figured it out a little bit about how to play. And then when I walked into the
06:52room in 2012, I knew I could win. But I also knew that there were probably 300
06:58people in there that couldn't win. It's not like that anymore. I mean,
07:01everybody that's in that room, probably 90% can win the contest. I faced a little
07:07bit of a softer field, you know, just because people were just kind of getting
07:10to know how to play contests. A lot of them were like me in 2008. When you
07:14walked in there, you just didn't know how to play. So that Yeah, so that's how I
07:18learned how to play. I learned how to play online, just trial and error. And
07:22most of it was error. You know, I just, ultimately, I think I figured it out.
07:28And, and yeah, I was able lucky lucky enough to win it in 2012.
07:33Can you just talk quickly about the difference between live money contest and the $2 win
07:37place contest? Because I find a lot of money contest a little bit more congruous to
07:42betting the horses on a day to day basis. Whereas with the $2 win place contest,
07:47you know, there aren't there aren't necessarily races where you zero in on one
07:50horse and say this is my pick. And I just found that in the win place contest,
07:54there's so many times where my alternate wins and I'm just kicking myself because I
07:58didn't pick the right horse. What do you prefer? And just does your strategy differ?
08:02How does your strategy differ through the between those two formats?
08:05Yeah, well, I'm not a very good live money player. I don't know what for whatever reason,
08:10I just haven't figured out. And I don't play a lot of them. That's number one. But number
08:16two is I just don't, I'm not very good at I've placed in a few Saratoga one year in a second.
08:24You know, $2 win place, you're kind of shooting for there, there's usually a limited number of
08:30races 10. And you're shooting for a number, a score that you're trying to get to. So let's say
08:36it's, you know, 10 races, you probably want to get to 100. You know, that's going to usually put
08:40So you have to kind of construct plays that take you there. And if you're picking two to ones all
08:48the time, you know, that are three to ones, you're not going to get to 100. So to me, it's almost a
08:53little bit easier, because you know that when you look over your, your sheet, and you say, wow, I
08:59have like, you know, six favorites, or six second choices, and I'm not going to get to 100, somebody
09:05is going to get to 100. Right. So you got to go back, and it's a little bit easier for me to do
09:10that. And I like to play longer shots anyway, so it just lends itself. I'm just not a very good
09:16favorite player. So in live money, you know, you can construct tickets that use the favorite
09:25and win a lot of money. And that to me is just it's just, it's polar opposite of what I do
09:32anyway, on a regular basis. So that's maybe why it's difficult. But I think there's also a,
09:38you know, shoot for a number. But in live money, where you're using like real money,
09:45there's going to be a Del Mar contest in a couple weeks that I actually want to entry to,
09:50and I'll be in. So it's $3,500 of like real money. And, you know, you can, you can construct tickets
09:58to get you to a certain but you really don't know what it's going to be what the winning number is
10:02going to be. And it seems like it just always comes down to the last race, you know. And if
10:09you don't have a good strong opinion on the last race, you're almost like forced to go all in to
10:15get to whatever, you know, 60,000, maybe or 50,000, you know that you got to get to. And I just,
10:24it doesn't feel natural to me to do that, you know, like if I'm, let's say if I'm in,
10:28I got 20 grand going into the last race at Del Mar, you know, to win 150 or 200.
10:36But I don't have an opinion on the race. Like, then it's really difficult to push all that
10:4120,000 into the middle. But, you know, there are people that do it. My very good friend,
10:49Brian Shinbert and his dad, Bill, they've had tremendous success. They just, some people can,
10:53you know, not only can push it in, but can also construct tickets. A lot of it is ticket
10:58construction, you know, which I'm not very good at. So two things I'm not good at, which means
11:04that's why I'm not really good at live money. Gotcha. All right. So this is a question about
11:10something you wrote earlier this year. It's actually, there's a story in the TDN about it
11:14by Bill Finley, my colleague and co-host on the writer's room. You were basically leaving
11:19horse betting and moving on to sports betting. Judging by you being in that Del Mar contest,
11:24hasn't completely set in yet. How's that going? Because I know it's an easier thing to say than
11:29do, especially when you've grown up with it. It gets into your blood betting the horses. So
11:33where are you on that now? Yeah. So it's hard. And when I said it, I meant it. And, you know,
11:42my buddies, we usually go to Saratoga. So we decided, they decided that we're going to Del
11:46Mar. So I figured, okay, if I'm going to be at Del Mar, I'm going to try to get in this contest,
11:50you know, max. So I played a few feeders to get in and I won. But no, I had quit.
11:57You know, right after the NHC, I had stopped completely. So as someone said, I didn't quit.
12:04I was just on strike. I'm on strike, basically. So, you know, I'll cross the picket line for the
12:10Derby, right? I'll cross the picket line when somebody wants to go to the track or I want to
12:15go to the track. But on a daily basis, I'm probably, you know, 95% of what I was betting.
12:24I'm only betting maybe 5%. And I don't do it on a daily basis anymore, which I used to do,
12:29probably for the last five or six years. So, you know, there are days that I don't pick up,
12:34don't open up Twin Spires or, you know, look at a form or anything. And those are good days. And
12:40the weekends are better. And it's more of a protest. It's more of a strike. And so I'm still
12:46in that place. Because even though HISA has become, you know, the law of the land, July 1st,
12:54you know, it's not necessarily what it is yet, because we don't even have drug testing that
13:00they're implementing. So that's my strike. That's my protest. Once, you know, hopefully we can,
13:07racing can, you know, introduce a uniform drug testing program that's administered
13:15by a national entity. And I'll probably take another look. But yes, no, I've moved, you know,
13:21not all of my horse racing, but I've definitely moved to betting fantasy sports and sports.
13:28Not every sport. All right. Well, I want to ask you about that. I want to ask you about sports
13:32betting in a second. But I also just wanted to quote you from the story I was referencing before
13:35and your justification for why you said you were leaving. You said, I'm just fed up with the drug
13:39cheating. I'm fed up with the takeout. I'm fed up that we apparently can't get into a position
13:43to implement new and better drug testing. I have more outlets now to gamble. I live in Louisiana,
13:48which was a state up until last year, where the only thing available was horse racing.
13:52Now there's daily fantasy sports, which I enjoy. And the takeout is much, much better.
13:56Soon we'll have online sports betting. I'm a consumer. I have just found better products.
14:00I honestly can't argue with a lot of that. You know, I think there are a lot of horse players
14:05out there who will be listening to this that feel that and empathize with that. My only pushback
14:09would be that I think at least with Hyza, which you mentioned, and I think with more tracks,
14:15at least major tracks, being a little more sensitive to horse player issues, I do think
14:19that there is some progress in that regard. Do you think that racing at least is moving in the right
14:25direction on some of those things, even if it's not where you think it should be to get your
14:28business back? Yes, without question. First, I mean, there is Hyza, right, which this time last
14:34year we didn't have. They are moving forward. They're going to implement, hopefully, drug
14:41testing at some point, maybe next year. There are tracks that are paying attention to takeout
14:48that are offering lower takeout, pick fives and pick fours, 12%, which is pretty good.
14:56So I think they are. So yeah, I mean, I think we're kind of moving, but horse racing is like
15:03a slug, I mean, sloth. I mean, we just, as an industry, if they're ever in agreement with each
15:11other, it still takes a long time to move, you know, just like any industry, I would suppose.
15:17But we don't have a commission, you know, and like football, when a rule in football impacts
15:25coaches or players or fans, the commissioner makes a decision, and it's done, you know,
15:32and we just don't have that. We have, you know, probably 39 or 40 state racing commissions that
15:39regulate racing, and they're all different rules, you know. So it's very difficult,
15:47but I'm hopeful that one day that it'll be cleaner, not cleaned up totally, but cleaner,
15:54that I'll come back, because I love it. And look, there's very few places you can go and you can
15:59bet a dollar, you know, and win $10,000, right? I mean, you just want a trifecta or superfecta. I
16:05mean, you know, that's not a, you know, that's not, gambling games don't offer that, those kind
16:11of odds. And so that's, that's appeal. Oh, yeah, unless you hit like a slot jackpot or something,
16:17you can't make that kind of money that quickly, which I mean, you can't obviously can't lose
16:21money as quickly either with other things. But let's talk about your sports betting handle.
16:26What have you shifted to specifically? What have what's worked well for you? What are some things
16:30that you want to get better at? Like, how is that going for you? So I'm not, I'm not really a major,
16:36I mean, a major sport player. So I'm not, I'm not gonna play, I don't play any baseball.
16:41I don't play any. I'm talking about sports betting. I was trying to play daily fantasy
16:50baseball on, you know, DraftKings or FanDuel. And I'm just not very good at it. It seems to me that
16:55it's much more complicated than other sports, you know. So it was very difficult for me to,
17:02to win. So I stopped until I learned some more. I bet tennis, I bet a lot of tennis.
17:09I watch a lot of tennis. I know that there's, I play tennis. I know that there's, you know,
17:15the line makers don't seem to sometimes catch up with players that have improved quickly,
17:22and they can improve quickly, you know. And also surfaces. They don't really sometimes
17:29factor in surfaces into, well, they do, of course, but it just, it may lag a little. So I feel like
17:36I have a little bit of an edge and I'm doing, you know, I do, I win money at tennis. I'll play
17:43soccer, Premier League soccer. Again, I think, and also MLS. I'm on a little, I'm riding a team
17:52right now, Austin Football Club on the road. They're just, they're just like road warriors
17:56and they always get their, their, their dogs. And so that's a good one. But I watch soccer
18:04as well. So, you know, it's two things that I'm, I actually, I watch, I enjoy,
18:09and, you know, just apply those sort of, those observations and also, you know,
18:16gather other people's, there are a lot of, you know, good experts in both, both tennis and in
18:22soccer that are offering their opinions for free, you know. And so you gather, you scrape those and,
18:27and you see what's what. And so those are the two things I've really, now I'll play a lot of fantasy
18:32football when it comes up. Oh, I had a really good score in golf a month ago, $3 contest. And I
18:40took first for 3000. So that was a good golf is just so golf is like, it's the most random. I
18:47mean, it is just, it's almost too random, but it's, it is fun to watch. And daily fantasy golf
18:55is pretty good, but I'll do daily fantasy football as well. So I guess you did find that thing that
19:00makes you money as quickly. I'm ahead, but you know, it's, I, you know, I'm, I'm really not one
19:07of these also one of these people. I know if anybody knows anything about daily fantasy,
19:10you know, there's people that play like if the entry limit is 150, you know, for a $3 contest or
19:16a 10 or 20, they're putting in 150 entries. I'm definitely more of a single entry person. I just,
19:22I don't have the edge, you know, that they have the people that are doing multiple entries. So
19:28I try to a lot of it is just, you know, just like horse racing, I mean, contest, you got to pick
19:33your pick what's best for you. And the single entries are, you know, I can reduce their the
19:39pros edge a lot by just going single entry. I'm stoked to hear that you're a tennis guy,
19:46because that's something we have in common. I also play tennis, watch tennis, bet on tennis.
19:51One of the angles that I like is over under games, and especially in women's matches,
19:57because it'll often be like 19 and a half or 20 and a half, maybe 21 and a half.
20:01And then you don't even need three sets. You really only need two competitive sets if you
20:05like the over. So that's something that I've that I've latched on to. But what about you?
20:08Is there a specific angle with tennis? I need to go back and look. Recently, because you know,
20:13I played a lot over the last month or so leading, you know, the French and leading up to the French
20:18and the Wimbledon. I would I would guess that the majority of my bets are over and under games.
20:24As you said, you know, it just, when you know, someone's going to be competitive,
20:31and you know, tennis, how it just, you know, that third set always presents itself, it seems,
20:37especially, you know, like, if you get a player, to me, it's, I don't know, plus or minus 240,
20:43which is pretty, that's a pretty good favorite. But you know, it's a it's a pre tournament,
20:48it's not a major, and they're going to play somebody who's really good right now and hungry.
20:53They may lose the first set, you know, and come back and win two out of three. You know,
20:57the angle that has worked for me, crushed in Wimbledon, Djokovic will lose the first set,
21:04it looks like almost eight out of 10 times now, eight out of 10. So you get two things going for
21:09you there, you can bet, lose first, you know, the other player to win the first set. In the final,
21:14actually bet, lose first set win match, plus 410. That was plus 450. That was, and that's what
21:22happened. I mean, he, for some reason, he's felt he's, again, it's just a pattern he's fallen into.
21:28He, he doesn't care if he wins the first set or not. I mean, I know in his first four or five
21:34comeback matches, he lost the first set in every one. And I think at Wimbledon, he probably lost,
21:39you know, three or four out of the six matches versus something like that. So those little
21:45things, you know, just that's observation. It's non statistical, totally non statistical,
21:50which is tough these days. I mean, because you're competing against, you know, so many people
21:56that have, you know, that have algorithms and, and, and programs, and, and, you know,
22:03they're going to be good, they're going to be better than you. So you got to get in there early
22:06on a line or else it's going to, it's going to really move, and you're not going to beat,
22:10you know, the closing line, which is kind of the whole game.
22:14I totally agree about the up and coming player too, because I was, I was big on Yannick Sinner
22:19in this tournament. And when he played Djokovic, I was big on the money line for him.
22:23And he was up two sets to none. As soon as Djokovic broke, and to start that third set,
22:28I took Djokovic going the other way. So I was able to head.
22:30Yeah, that's a great, you know, that's the other thing is, I do tend to do a lot of in game
22:35on tennis. Who was it today, team was playing somebody, and he lost the first set, and he was
22:45plus 110. He may have ended up getting higher than that, but I took plus 110. Now he came back
22:51in one, you know, he had a couple match points against him. But, you know, you could take a
22:54player who was minus, you know, 180, 200, and get that player for plus 110. When you know,
23:01there's really no, I mean, he just lost the first set. That's all. It's not a big, you know,
23:04especially those higher end players like that, they just buckle down and come back and they can
23:09grind it out. Well, and like, like you're saying, I find the in game betting most profitable in
23:15other sports to like basketball, and football, but a little bit like player points over under,
23:20like, I remember, Devin Booker had like two points at halftime of one of those suns playoff games.
23:25And his total for the game at halftime was 10 and a half. And he was like, I don't know,
23:30was 10 and a half. So it's like, you're basically betting if you're betting against that he's not
23:34going to get double digits. You know, even even if he had a slow start to the game, like football,
23:39you'll see a guy with like 100 yards receiving with like a quarter and a half to go and it's
23:42over under will be, you know, 120 or something like that. That's one catch. You know, it's one
23:47catch down the field. And I think I do agree that it seems like that those are the things that the
23:52betting sites don't really adjust the markets to very well. You know, they're good at setting the
23:56initial lines. But once the action starts, it's it's kind of a little bit of a free for all. And
24:01they're just guessing a lot more. Would you agree with that?
24:03I don't know if they're guessing, but I don't know that they're as efficient
24:07as they as they, you know, are with a straight game line. There's, you know, they're much smart,
24:15they're much smarter than I am. But they're certainly but they're not, you know, there is
24:19something to be said just like horse racing about observation. So, you know, a number does not
24:24necessarily mean what a number means. I know that's talking in code. But, you know, a guy that
24:29has scored four points in the first half, but it's getting open looks, you know, and yeah,
24:35he's just missing. I mean, that may mean that he's gonna keep getting those open looks and score
24:40a horse that you know, wins with a terrible trip or a great trip or whatever, doesn't look so good
24:47on the next day, you know, or the next race. So it's just I think it's using the thing that I have
24:54because I'm not a computer number scout, just the power of observation.
24:59Probably, I don't know that it gives me an edge, it gives me, you know, a smaller advantage,
25:06you know. Yeah. Well, I'm like in game betting to your you actually get to see the action first
25:11when you bet before the game, you're betting blind, basically, you're just you're just,
25:14you know, presuming what will happen in game betting, you actually get to see the flow of
25:17the game. Like you're saying, if a guy's open, and he's missing shots, you brought up the computer
25:22wagers, you know, that's a topic that's on a lot of horse players minds, because they feel like
25:26they're getting squeezed out by these giant computer wagers and these algorithms. And it
25:31seems like it's harder and harder for a meat and potatoes horse player like me or you to overcome
25:36that. Now, we've seen we've seen some steps to combat that Naira, I think has done a good job
25:40stopping that wagering within, you know, within two minutes of the post time. You know, what do
25:46you think that that is something that can really that can actually really drive people out of the
25:51game? Do you think it's something that can become better combated by other sports? Like,
25:55where do you think the future of that is? Do you think it's just something that's going to get
25:59worse? Or could it get better? I think it's going to get worse. And I don't think it's
26:03just going to be the computer groups, but definitely it drives, you know, you know,
26:06this from playing for so long. A horse that, you know, might pay $8 five years ago,
26:14a is paying probably, I'm generalizing, but that horse is probably paying 620. You know,
26:24and so that that that in itself just hurts, you know, the profitability of people like you and me.
26:31Whereas the computer program is going to find that horse and has found that horse,
26:35you know, that they couldn't find that the general public couldn't find before.
26:41Um, and so yes, that that hurts, but we're not going to get rid of it. I mean,
26:45they're going to be people out there that are using computer programs, whether they're,
26:49you know, you call them computer groups or whatever they are, that's just part of the game.
26:53So that's part of the one of the things that has driven, you know, I mean, it's just harder,
26:57Joe. I mean, it's harder to make money betting on horse racing than it ever has been period,
27:04period. First of all, they've gotten rid of, I don't want to get on a soapbox.
27:09Well, this is the show.
27:11No, they've gotten rid of the bets that I think give bettors like you and I,
27:15you know, kind of an advantage, like to me, the $2 pick six, um, or the dollar, you know,
27:21maybe the dollar pick six, but the $2 pick six, you know, was just a bet that was good for me
27:28because I guess it gave you a range of races. You could single in on an opinion,
27:33um, and wager, you know, a reasonable amount of money and you weren't competing
27:37against so many combinations, you know, because now we're competing in so many combination
27:43combinations because it's 20 cents. Uh, so somebody is going to have your combination,
27:48right? Whereas before there might be two or other three people. That's just a,
27:53I just rue that. I just, that's, that was a terrible day when they, you know, basically
27:57we don't have any $2 pick six. Um, so, but it's just harder to make money at horse racing because
28:03the horses that you figure are winning or going to win are paying less. Even the $12
28:09horse is paying eight something, you know? Um, and that just makes it difficult on a day-to-day
28:14basis. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. And you know, it's the computer wagering thing is tough because
28:18they're not breaking any rules specifically. And then, you know, you can't, you can't legislate
28:23against innovation in that way, but you know, it's just, it is squeezing us, squeezing us guys out.
28:28And yeah, I mean, especially the stuff that the, you know, the stuff that looks like past posting,
28:32but we know isn't, you know, when the odds drop during the race, like tell us sports better that
28:37that might happen to them and see if they come back. Tell us sports better than you go bet.
28:43And when the, and when they kick off, you're getting plus seven. Okay. But when the guy
28:48catches the ball and he's at the 30, you now get a plus six. How does, you know,
28:54that to me is just like, we're not going to fix the computer wagering part, but we gotta be able
29:00to explain it to a better, like you bet this horse at six to one. Wow. He won and you get
29:07seven to two or three. It's just not, it's, it's not sustainable. It's just not sustainable. I mean,
29:13I just, you know, that's kind of where fixed odds betting comes in, but that, that needs to be,
29:18you know, mass adopted across the country. I hope, I hope it goes well in New Jersey.
29:22I got to ask you about the, about the Bob Baffert lawsuit, if you're willing to talk about it,
29:26that was, that was something that spoke to me specifically, because I was a guy who needed
29:30Mandaloon that day. I would have had to pick four. I had a wind bed on him. Probably would
29:34have been like six or 7,000. If Mandaloon had won that race other than Medina spirit,
29:39I assume going into that, you knew that was going to be a tough case to prove,
29:42to prove injury specifically, you know, instigated by Bob Baffert. Tell me your
29:47thought process in launching that class action suit and, and kind of just how it went in court.
29:51My, my, my thought process was strictly selfish to begin with. It was, I was pissed off, right?
29:59Now, look, I had, I had the exact, I cashed out really nice. But, you know, I could have cashed
30:05out 15 times higher, you know, 70 grand or something or 70, whatever it was. So I was just
30:12pissed. And then, you know, when the drug test came back, then I really got, you know, okay,
30:17no one is doing anything about this. Now, at that time, I didn't know, you know, what we know now,
30:23that Churchill Downs, you know, was going to, was going to, you know, actively find some punitive
30:30action to take against Baffert, that Naira was going to ban him. So, but back in, you know,
30:35the month after his drug test, it was just going to, to me, it was just going to be no one's going
30:42to do anything. So I was like, I'm going to do something. I don't, you know, I don't know.
30:50It's a long shot, but this is horse racing. So I'm going to do something and make a statement,
30:55basically. And so, you know, we sued, we sued first in California, we moved the suit to New
31:01Jersey. You know, we have a couple hundred class action members currently. It's still in the
31:06courts. I mean, we have not, we really have not had any hearing yet. There's been a motion to
31:13dismiss filed by Baffert's lawyers, which the federal judge has not ruled on yet. Now, that's
31:20the big hurdle. If we can get past a motion to dismiss, which I don't know, I'm not a lawyer.
31:26I don't know whether we can or can't. It's probably 50-50. I don't know. But if we can,
31:32then we have some avenues available to us to start gathering evidence, taking depositions,
31:40and trying to find some relief for the people that were harmed, that, you know, were frauded.
31:47I mean, there's no question that Bob Baffert, the horse was drugged. That's a fact. The horse
31:58was drugged with a drug that was banned. That's a fact. The horse was disqualified. That's a fact.
32:04The only people that are not receiving relief in this are the bettors. And who's responsible for
32:10that? It's Bob Baffert, because he is responsible for the horse and he perpetrated the fraud
32:15on bettors. So, he's responsible. So, I would love to get a day in court, you know, and just have,
32:22and let's discuss it and litigate it. But I don't know what's going to happen.
32:28You know, the ruling could come down tomorrow that, yes, they're going to dismiss the case,
32:33and we're probably done at that point. I don't know, we may appeal. Or the ruling could come
32:37down like, hey, you know what, the judge thinks that we have enough of a case to go forward and
32:42start gathering some evidence. And that wouldn't surprise me. But I think the point has been made,
32:47though. I really, and I'm not just about moral victories. I mean, I want financial victory for
32:53people that were, you know, frauded out of their money. But I think the point has been made.
32:58B-I-A-N-C-A, if you want to put my name down at the bottom of that, that's how you spell
33:04my last name. Because I'm one of those guys. I'm one of those guys who got cost a lot of money
33:08because of that. But before we let you go, I wanted to ask about your day job,
33:13because you're a political consultant. Is that correct?
33:17Yeah, that's correct. That's the other connection to Carville. Yeah. So I'm a political consultant.
33:24So I do political advertising all over the country. And yeah, heavily involved in the
33:30current midterm elections all over today's election day in Maryland. So if you're in Maryland, go vote.
33:36So can you, before, I'm hesitant to bring this up. This is a minefield with like the
33:42racing public and, you know, so many, so many. I'm used to it.
33:47There's so many Trump people, I'm sure, that are listening to this. So I don't want to go
33:50too crazy with it. But just you just give me like an overall view with someone who's done
33:53it for a long time. Just how crazy, what we think of how crazy American politics has gotten.
34:00So, you know, as a citizen, I'm just like most people, I'm totally fed up with the way the system
34:10is working, or actually not working. And so I feel the same frustration that, you know, most voters
34:20have when things go wrong in the country. Why can't we just fix it in Washington, because it's
34:25just not, they don't fix it. Okay. So we're in a really bad place. I mean, because nothing is
34:32getting done. And when nothing gets done, people suffer. So I'm just as frustrated as the other
34:38person. On the other hand, I'm in this business, and the business has never been better. There's
34:43more money. And this may be the cause of the first thing that I said, why nothing gets done.
34:49But there's more money in politics than there ever has been. I mean, it is a
34:54multi billion dollar industry, on the spend on the political side spending.
35:02I mean, for the wallet, that's a great thing, you know, for my business, or for governmental
35:08governing and legislating. It's awful, obviously, you know. So
35:18we're in a really bad spot. I mean, we're just in a bad spot.
35:21You know, I take that point about it seems like now there's just endless campaigning. You know,
35:28there's so there's so little emphasis on actually governing. Once you get into office, like I saw
35:34this, like with the Roe versus Wade decision, recently, and whatever you feel about that,
35:38whether you're pro choice, pro life, whatever, I think a lot of people who are pro choice were
35:42pissed off that when the, you know, when the ruling first came down, the first reaction of
35:47a lot of the Democrats was to send fundraising messages. And it's like, well, you're in power
35:52right now. Don't tell me you can't do anything and just say to give me more money to get elected
35:57next time. So I think I feel like that's what you're talking about, where it's good for guys
36:02like you, and I'm sure you do a great job. But I just don't know how we get back to that point
36:06where it becomes about governing with the power that we gave you, you know, like, how do we get
36:10back? Well, you know, when we open the floodgates with Citizens United decision to allow corporations
36:18and, you know, to participate in the political protests from an electoral standpoint. Again,
36:25it's I don't think we can put that genie back in the bottle. And what we have is we have not
36:30really corporations, but we have people that own corporations, billionaires on both sides,
36:38and I hate to use the both sides argument because it doesn't hold up. But there are
36:43Republican billionaires, and there are Democratic billionaires that are influencing these elections,
36:49and they're spending their money. And God bless them, because it's a free, you know, it's freedom
36:54that we have that in the country, but there must be, you know, disclosure. And there must be,
37:01I don't, I don't know if there if there can be limits. But there has to be full disclosure. And
37:06I don't think we're there yet, because we have so many, there are entities that, you know,
37:10we work for, that are never, they never report donors, you know, so we spend a lot of money,
37:17we don't report donors, because it's not, you know, you're not required. So there's just an
37:22awful lot of money. And it, you know, it's kind of corrupted the process as we knew it. But I
37:28think it can be fixed. And I think as a country, you know, we're going to survive. It's just,
37:33it's, I do believe we're going to see some darker times ahead.
37:37I totally agree. I wish I didn't feel that way. I think the thing that a lot of people don't get
37:42is that, you know, like you say, they're right wing billionaires, they're liberal billionaires,
37:46I think most of those people are committed to the status quo, because that shit is working
37:51out great for them. You know, I don't think it's this, this real pitched battle between
37:56ideologies when it comes to really, really uber rich people. I think they're both committed to
38:01keeping things the way they are. And I think that's the root of what you were saying that,
38:04you know, nothing ever gets done in Washington. Well, the system that works for is not working
38:11for us, as you said, Joe is working for somebody. Yeah. You know, so you're right. I think that
38:17there's a lot of truth to what you said. I think there's some, there are some exceptions,
38:23maybe many on both sides that, you know, they are ideologues, and they want to see a certain
38:29policy pass. But there's also like, let's just, yeah, I mean, it's working for me.
38:36Yeah. You know, so let's keep it working.
38:39Yeah. What are all the little people complaining about? All right, Michael, you've been very,
38:42very generous with your time. And I know you're a soapbox guy, because you brought it up earlier.
38:46Is there anything else that you want to complain about, rave about, rant about before we get out
38:52of here? The floor is yours. I don't, I mean, there's so many things, I think it would take
38:58another two hours. You know, I'm hopeful one day that we'll see the larger casino company,
39:04the giraffe kings and the fan duels, you know, start offering some sort of, you know, props on
39:09jockeys and trainers and, you know, horses winning and that kind of thing on a daily basis,
39:16because I think that would be a nice avenue for us to invest in. But again, I think it's also part
39:21of the problem is the regulation, you know, they have to go get approval from commissions and
39:29gaming commissions, racing commissions, horsemen's groups, it's just, it's a mess,
39:34you know, when you love the same game parlay on Traverse Day or something.
39:38Yeah. I mean, that would be Chad Brown,
39:43over and under to Jose Ortiz over and under 30, you know, that kind of thing. I mean,
39:48those things would be, and that's gonna, that's what's will attract the non horse racing better
39:55into horse race. Yeah, it's not going to be when play show trifecta, superfecta,
39:59these freaking jackpot things, which are the worst. I think those are the worst things on
40:06the jackpot wagering, I think you'd be good. I mean, the jackpot thing is just it takes so
40:11much money out of the game, you know, and so there's no churn. But I think if we could,
40:17if we could ever get DraftKings or FanDuel or whomever, to get some props on horse racing,
40:22that would be a major, major step. Yeah, well, I mean, there's and it's,
40:27there's so much potential there, like you're saying, and so much potential for crossover to
40:31bring more betters from sports betting to here. Yeah, that's, and also just combining it with
40:35other sports, like you've got the chargers to win that night with so and so to win the travel is
40:40like, why is that not possible? It's not possible, Joe, not in the world we live in, unfortunately.
40:49Maybe not ever. I don't know. But look, I know that they're looking at it. I mean,
40:53I know Johnny Avello and DraftKings. He's like, he's, he's, he's, he's a huge horse guy. I mean,
40:58big, big time horse person. He is looking at it. It's just difficult to bring. And I don't know
41:05that the game is sustainable without bringing in new people. Nope.
41:10Agreed. Yeah. So let's all hope for a little bit more crossover. It can be an opportunity. It
41:14doesn't have to be a threat. Having sports betting be legal. Michael Bajchok, thank you so much for
41:19the time. This was great. I'd love to get a drink with you sometime in Saratoga, continue this
41:23conversation. Appreciate the time, my man. Thank you, Joe. I enjoyed it. Great stuff.
41:29Okay. So I mentioned in the open that we are now sponsored by the Breeders' Cup here at Better
41:33Things with Joe Bianca. It's so exciting to have them aboard. They're obviously a huge name in
41:37racing. And like I said earlier, the gold standard in international championship racing. And the way
41:43this is going to work is I'm going to do a handicapping segment for every weekend that
41:46there are nationally televised Breeders' Cup when you're in challenge races. And we'll kick it off
41:51this week with the grade one $1 million TVG.com Haskell Invitational this Saturday, July 23rd
41:59at Monmouth Park. The Winning Urine Program, if you're not, you're probably familiar,
42:02but if you're unfamiliar, it's an immensely successful and popular initiative. The Breeders'
42:06Cup launched in 2007 that features a constantly increasing schedule of big races, mainly
42:11throughout the summer and fall that provide fees paid entries along with travel allowances for the
42:16corresponding Breeders' Cup races for the winners of various challenge races. It's been great for
42:21the Breeders' Cup, but honestly, it's also been great for the array of tracks these races are run
42:25at. And in a racing landscape where we're stuck with a lot of short fields and trainers ducking
42:30races, looking for the easiest spots, this is an incentive. And incentives like this bolster the
42:35fields of those races, give us a more full racing schedule with all top class fields on the road to
42:41the Breeders' Cup. So I'm really excited for this partnership. It's a natural one. I would be
42:45handicapping these races anyway. I'm sure all of you watching and listening are going to be
42:49handicapping these races anyway. So it's going to be a lot of fun the next six or eight weeks or so
42:53in the summer and fall. The Haskell is a very special race every year on the calendar and Monmouth
42:58Park is a really special place. If you haven't been there, I strongly suggest you go. If you're
43:02ever near the New Jersey coast, it's got a similar vibe to Saratoga in that it's a beautifully
43:07preserved historic track with a real kind of summer day party vibe to it and great atmosphere.
43:13People come to bring their coolers and hang out with friends and family at the track and this
43:17beautiful little ocean breeze comes in while you're watching horses run. It's really, it's bliss
43:21in the summer. The Haskell is the centerpiece of the meet. It's been run since 1968 every year at a
43:27mile and an eighth. This year it goes as race 12 on a 14 race program with a post time of 545 eastern
43:34time. So let's get into it. Let's get into handicapping the Haskell and a little bit of the races
43:38outside of surrounding the Haskell. We have an eight-horse field in the Haskell with two horses
43:43expected to take the bulk of the wagering attention, but each have something to prove,
43:47which is what makes this a bettable race. A lot of times you see those short prices,
43:51you want to steer clear, but both Jack Christopher and Teba, who were the main contenders,
43:55have some questions to answer. Jack Christopher, to me, pound for pound, looks like the most
43:59talented three-year-old in the country today in what looks like at least an above average crop,
44:04if not an elite crop. He's undefeated in four starts by a combined 25 and a quarter lengths,
44:08including two grade one wins, and his race in the Woody Stevens was something to behold. We'll
44:13show the stretch run of that final 20 seconds or so. You generally don't see horses show the kind
44:18of acceleration he produced in the final furlong of that race. He came home in 35.71 for his final
44:24three eights and, you know, what looked to be a kind of a comfortable win turned into an absolute
44:29rout in the blink of an eye. And he's also proven that while he's plenty fast, he doesn't need the
44:34lead. So he's capable, I think, of letting someone else go, at least one horse go in the Haskell if
44:39they're hell-bent on getting to the front. But with that being said, he's never been around two
44:44turns. There's an old adage in betting horses that I'm sure a lot of you have heard. I find it to
44:48generally be true that you don't take horses at short prices doing something they've never done
44:53before. And this is a turning point race for Jack Christopher in terms of what he's going to be
44:57asked to do the rest of the year, whether he's going to stay at a mile or try to stretch out
45:01and be a Breeders' Cup Classic winner going a mile and a quarter. And while Chad Brown has shown
45:05immense confidence in him, even he doesn't know. He doesn't know until it happens whether or not
45:10he can go two turns and be the same horse that he is going one turn. And let's be clear, if he is,
45:16he's going to win this race. But we don't know that yet. And his pedigree, lean sprint as well,
45:21his damn Russian no-blushing was eased in her only start going beyond six and a half furlongs.
45:27His second damn blushing Ogigean never traveled further than six furlongs.
45:31His sire munnings and damn sire half hours were sprinter miler types. So there's no guarantee in
45:37his pedigree, as brilliant as he is, that he's going to be able to stretch out to two turns
45:41and a mile and an eighth. Going to Teba, Teba has similarly been one of the most impressive
45:45three-year-olds of 2022. Debuted with a 102 buyer and a seven and a half length win going six
45:51furlongs at Santa Anita. He was ambitiously placed in the Santa Anita Derby after that,
45:55asked to stretch out three furlongs and step into a grade one in just his second career start,
46:00which is basically unheard of. And he validated that confidence. He did so remarkably professionally
46:05for a horse with so little seasoning, switched off beautifully and ran away from a really talented
46:10stable made of his and Messier, who had much, much more foundation going into that race.
46:15He could easily vault to the top tier of the three-year-old division. He's been a little bit
46:18forgotten recently if he wins this race. And while he doesn't have quite as much early speed as Jack
46:23Christopher, he's shown he's fast enough to not let that rival run away and hide if nobody else
46:28knows. But similar to Jack Christopher, he's got questions to answer. And for him, it's about where
46:33his current form stands. He was fairly close to a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, but the fact of
46:37the matter is he never did any real running, never made a move and didn't switch leads in the stretch,
46:43which is never a great sign. And in my opinion, he ran the worst race of the three Derby horses
46:47running in the Haskell, even though he was the first among them across the wire, considering
46:51why the barrio is extreme ground loss around both turns. And the fact that Cyberknife at least
46:56launched a little bit of a bid on the far turn before he flattened out badly. And those two will
47:01be significantly bigger prices than Tayba on Saturday. So the wagering strategies for this
47:05race will be a find a horse or two to back on the win end. And this is one of those rare scenarios
47:10because you have not only one, but two horses who are going to be below two to one. So you're
47:15essentially guaranteed to get at minimum four to one on anybody else in the race you like,
47:20probably more like five or six to one. So that's going to be my first play.
47:24B, I'm going to play savor exactus with the two favorites over my picks because I do respect both
47:29of them as much as I have questions about their vulnerability as favorites. And C, find somewhere
47:34to lean in the pick four outside of the Haskell, spread in the Haskell and then play a second
47:39smaller ticket pressing Jack Christopher and Tayba. Because I think if you can beat them,
47:44I don't know that you're going to beat them for first and second within the race, but if you can
47:47beat them in the multi-race sequences where I think a lot of people are going to lean on those two,
47:52I think you can get paid. So let's figure out who we like. Let's look at the rest of the field by
47:56process of elimination. Two horses can't win this race without running by far the best race of their
48:01life. That's one time Willard and King of Hollywood. Benevengo is not entirely possible. He's been
48:06working up a storm over the track, but he's still very, very unlikely. Crucially though, Benevengo
48:11and one time Willard bring early speed, which may make things tougher on Jack Christopher
48:16and to a lesser extent Tayba. So that leaves us with White Abario, Cyberknife and Howling Time.
48:22White Abario comes out of a second in the Ohio Derby while the latter two came out of a real
48:27thrilling stretch battle in the mat win, which ended with Cyberknife winning by the slimmest of
48:32photos after Howling Time had set the pace and battled back super gamely in deep stretch. Overall,
48:38while I respect White Abario and the races he ran earlier this year at Gulfstream Park, I've yet to
48:42see him reproduce that form outside of Gulfstream and I thought he really didn't have any excuse in
48:48the Ohio Derby. He sat in the perfect spot of dueling leaders and he still got outkicked by
48:53Tawny Port, who I don't think anybody considers, at least right now, a top class three-year-old.
48:57He's stepping up to face top class three-year-olds after he couldn't hold off Tawny Port and I just
49:02think he may have a little bit more punch going shorter. Even in his Florida Derby win, he ran a
49:07very slow final for a long of over 14 seconds, so that leads me to the two mat win horses and I
49:13just think overall the mat win was a stronger prep in my eyes than the Ohio Derby, despite
49:19Classic Causeway coming back out of the ladder and winning the Belmont Derby on turf. You know,
49:23these comparisons are a little messy to make one-to-one sometimes, but there was one horse
49:27who ran in both races named Droppin' G's. He was beating 14 lengths in the mat win and seven and a
49:33quarter lengths in the Ohio Derby, so that's a big difference for a horse who conceivably was in
49:38similar form going into both of those races. And to add to that, third place finisher in the mat
49:43win, Rattle and Roll, who was a grade one winner as a two-year-old, came back to win the American
49:47Derby next time out, improving his buyer figure by seven points. So, out of Cyberknife and Howling
49:53Time, I prefer Cyberknife because he's got the right style here to save ground, sit in the second
49:59flight, four to six lengths off the leader, kick home strongest of the non-favorites should the
50:04pace get hot. You know, Howling Time was able to rate and win as a two-year-old, and Joe Talomo,
50:09who's his rider in this race, would be wise to back off the pace and try that again on Saturday,
50:13but with him having success in his last two races on the lead, it's tough, I think, for connections
50:17to change what had been working. So, he definitely could get caught up in the pace, whereas I don't
50:21have that worry with Cyberknife. I know Ferranchero is just going to sit, be patient, try to make one
50:26run, and hope the speed comes back. All right, so here are the plays. We've got a $200 budget for
50:33this race and for the Pick 4 combined. So, in the Haskell, I'm going with $70 to win on number one,
50:38Cyberknife, $30 to win on number four, Howling Time, then $10 exactas with number two, Teba,
50:45and number seven, Jack Christopher over Cyberknife and Howling Time. So, within the race, I'm betting
50:50$140 total. In the Pick 4, we're going to lean on number three, search results in the Molly Pitcher.
50:56She ran a terrific race for Chad Brown, dueling the great Latruska, champion Latruska, into defeat
51:02in the Ogden Fifths before understandably tiring a bit to be third late in the race. Anything close
51:08to that effort, she's going to win the Molly Pitcher. She just outclasses those horses,
51:12and she's got the kind of speed to be successful on the Mamas Strip, which is generally a little
51:16bit more favorable to speed horses. We've got the grade one United Nations, which is right before
51:22the Haskell. We'll use the top three from the Manhattan, who are all coming back in this race,
51:26number one, Adamo, number four, Tribuvan, who won the United Nations last year, and number 10,
51:31Gafo, along with number three, Temple, who I think is the horse in that race that could make some
51:36noise, hopefully at a square price, six or eight to one or so. And the Matchmaker, which is the
51:40first leg of the pick four, we'll spread a bit using a huge bomb in number one, Hull Boaty Meister,
51:46who's got poor form right now, but she's bred to like turf. Her dam was completely a turf horse.
51:51Also use number two, Lamista, number four, Lady Rockstar, number five, Flighty Lady,
51:56and number seven, Vigilante's Way. So here's the pick four ticket. We'll put it up on the screen.
52:01One, two, four, five, seven, with three, with one, three, four, ten, with one, two, four, seven,
52:07which is $40 for $50, and then we'll press with the favorites in the Haskell, going one, two,
52:12four, five, seven, with three, with one, three, four, ten, with two, seven, which adds up to another $20
52:19for 50 cents, which is $60 total. The pick four starts in race nine. So we got all these plays up
52:24on the screen. Best of luck if you're following along. Thank you again to the Breeders' Cup for
52:28joining us on Better Things with Joe Bianca. I'm so excited for this partnership, and it really
52:32does kick off with a nice card and a nice race on Saturday, a race that, like I said, a lot of us
52:37will be handicapping and watching no matter what, but it really adds to it when you get the star
52:42power of Jack Christopher and Teba, but then they have a little bit of vulnerability as well, so you
52:46can potentially make some money in the race too. So looking forward to it on Saturday. If you're
52:51anywhere near the Jersey Shore, you definitely should head down to Monmouth Park. It's a
52:55phenomenal day of racing. The weather looks like it's going to be pretty good, and cannot wait for
52:59it. All right, so that's going to do it for this edition of Better Things with Joe Bianca. Thank
53:03you so much for watching. Thanks again to the Breeders' Cup for joining us. Thank you to Michael
53:07Baychuck for coming on and talking to me. Had a lot of fun in this episode. Best of luck this weekend
53:11betting the Haskell. We'll be back in a couple weeks. We'll be back Whitney Week to preview that
53:16race. That's another star-studded race that I think a lot of people have circled on their calendar,
53:20so that'll be a lot of fun, but first enjoy the Haskell and enjoy all the racing action. The rest
53:25of July we'll see in a little bit. I want to thank Patty Wolfe, our producer, and our editors,
53:29Anthony LaRocca, Leah LaRocca, and Nathan Wilkinson. Thanks so much for watching.
53:33We'll see you next time on Better Things with Joe Bianca.