Singapore heads to the polls tomorrow in what is widely seen as a defining general election for the city-state. This is the first electoral test for Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who succeeded Lee Hsien Loong last May. The ruling People’s Action Party, which has been in power since 1959—longer than any other elected party in the world—is now seeking a strong mandate under new leadership—but faces growing pressure over the rising cost of living and calls for more political diversity in Parliament. On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Associate Professor Dr Ja Ian Chong from the Department of Political Science at National University of Singapore.
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00:00Hi, welcome back to Consider This, I'm Melissa Idris. Let's continue our discussion about what
00:24to watch out for in Singapore's elections as Singaporeans head to the polls tomorrow.
00:31Joining me now is Associate Professor Dr. Ja-In Chong, who is from the Department of Political
00:36Science at National University of Singapore. Dr. Chong, thank you for being on the show with me
00:41today. Maybe we can begin our conversation by you helping us understand what's at stake in this
00:47election, especially for the PAP, for the 4G leadership and for Prime Minister Lawrence
00:54Wong personally. Right, so this is Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's first election leading the PAP.
01:02So I think he is very keen to demonstrate that he has the support of Singaporeans. So that's for him
01:10and for the PAP as well. They've got a little bit of a challenge here because as many of your listeners
01:17might know, Thaewon Tramogu Rhat Nam was a very popular PAP politician before he became president.
01:23And so he did very well in the presidential election. So Lawrence Wong, as the person who stepped in,
01:29you know, has to try to approach that 70%. It's a really, really tough call, but that's the
01:35situation that Lawrence Wong and the PAP have set themselves up for. What else is at stake is,
01:41or at least the PAP will claim, Singapore's ability to navigate the economic headwinds and the
01:52uncertainties that are now present. So that's something to watch as well. But I think one
01:58thing more beyond the PAP is, I think for Singapore, that all these things, of course, are important,
02:02but also, you know, how it sees itself as moving ahead as a democracy, right? So that's also at stake too.
02:09Okay, so talk to me about what a good performance would entail, what a strong mandate would look like
02:17for the PAP, for Lawrence Wong. We've seen that in previous elections, there's been a downtrend in
02:24terms of the popular vote. So what would a strong mandate look like for the Prime Minister? And are
02:31you confident that he might achieve it?
02:34So the PAP, I think over the past few election cycles, has averaged out around 60% of the popular
02:40vote. That translates to about 90% of the seats in Parliament. So what that means is, I think seat-wise,
02:47this percentage of seats is not going to change very much. So it's going to be that popular vote.
02:50And as I said, there's that hope of reaching what Thaman had attained. So, you know, above 60% and as close to 70% as possible, I think is what the PAP and Lawrence Wong would hope for.
03:06And you're confident that he might be able to achieve it?
03:09So, I think things are a little bit unclear. And of course, in Singapore, we have no opinion polls. So it's hard to tell for sure. And things can be a flux. So it's possible, technically possible,
03:22for the PAP to even lose a GRC or two, but increase the popular vote if other constituencies do really well. So that's why it's, yeah, in our context, it's really difficult to tell at this point in time.
03:33Okay. Well, talk to me about what you're observing, just in terms of the opposition. So the Workers' Party made gains in the last election. Are you seeing momentum build for Singapore's opposition? Are you seeing a growing appetite amongst Singaporeans for more political diversity in representation?
03:55So I think there is a growing appetite for more diversity in representation, but it is also generational.
04:01So I think younger, middle-aged and younger voters are more willing to have diversity. But I think the slightly older voters are probably a little bit more conservative in their outlook, a little bit more cautious.
04:15So there's a generational difference. So that's one thing. The other is, I think, to the earlier part of your question, the WP has been gaining momentum.
04:25And this is evident not just in the vote. We don't know the vote now. But what is evident is they've been getting very good candidates.
04:32So people are willing to take some risk to their own careers to stand with the WP. So I think that makes a difference.
04:39And there is some of this pattern replicated as well with the Progress Singapore Party and the SDP, Singapore Democratic Party.
04:47So these are the big opposition parties.
04:49Could you just elaborate on them? What's the significance of these newer opposition parties?
04:58How are they challenging the traditional political narrative? How are they adding to the diversity of representation?
05:06I'm just wondering, because there have been comments that, well, essentially they tend to split the votes.
05:11How do you view it?
05:12Oh, so for the main opposition parties, there is a distinction among them.
05:19I think it's very clear that the Workers' Party is centre-left, and then the PSP is pretty centrist, and the SDP is to the left of the Workers' Party.
05:30Now, so this is seen in their views on social issues and things like that.
05:35Now, the difference in terms of splitting the vote, that isn't actually going to be so much of a case, because the main political parties have basically contested in different areas.
05:46Where the split vote comes in is when we have a lot of these smaller political parties, which is the other point I was going to make.
05:52Well, I think what we're starting to see is a consolidation of Singapore's opposition politics.
05:57Meaning to say that the smaller parties are getting more and more sidelined, and there's going to be a coalescence of support for the bigger opposition political parties.
06:07Okay, so this is interesting.
06:09Do you see this as a maturing of Singapore's democracy?
06:13I think also, I'm wondering what this election means for Singapore's political evolution, regardless of how well the PAP does and how well the opposition does.
06:26What would any result mean for Singapore's political system and its maturing evolution?
06:34So I think, apart from the opposition consolidation, if we see more acceptance of pluralism, a more demanding electorate in terms of wanting MPs to actually represent their different interests,
06:49that is representative of Singapore moving towards a more, in the direction of a maturing democracy.
06:55If it's still going to be a lot of the sort of old fear of uncertainty and the discussion really is extremely localised, then I think we probably still have a further way to go.
07:08Right. You mentioned a little earlier that there were generational differences in how voters are approaching the polls this time around.
07:15Can I ask you what, in particular, young people are looking at or what they're desiring from this election?
07:23The previous one was a COVID, it was a pandemic poll.
07:26So things are probably different now post-pandemic.
07:30What are your observations about what young voters are talking about, what they're seeking through their ballot?
07:39Right. So young people, I think, are seeking opportunities.
07:43They're seeking ways to move forward.
07:46And I think this, in part, dovetails with the uncertainty that we see now has amplified this.
07:51But the sort of old ways of, you know, you get a stable job in a big corporation, that stuff isn't working as well anymore.
07:58So I think younger people are looking for more opportunities, which means to say that the sort of older narrative of, OK, it's just stability.
08:05You just sort of play by the rules that might not work as well for younger people.
08:08So they're trying to explore different things.
08:10And that translates into some of the way that they look at politics, too.
08:13OK. And how has the PAP had to recalibrate its messaging or its policies and narrative in response to the changing Singapore society?
08:24I noticed there were 32 new candidates from the PAP this time around.
08:29So a slate of new faces.
08:31What does that tell you?
08:31So the PAP has been trying to make themselves younger.
08:36Now, the slate of candidates also has to do with the fact that Lawrence Wong is trying to leave his imprint now because they have delayed the whole leadership transition because of the issues about who is going to take over.
08:48But for the PAP, this creates a pretty interesting situation where they have to sell the stability message to the older voters, but they have to sell the innovation and change message to the younger voters.
09:01And as you can see, there's a tension in this.
09:03So that's why there's this.
09:05If you look at the PAP messaging, they're really struggling to do to, you know, attend to both sets of concerns.
09:12And do you think these elections are primarily driven by cost of living issues, housing issues, inequality issues?
09:20Are there other factors at play coming from Malaysia where race and religion are often heightened during election season?
09:31Is that the case for Singapore?
09:32Have you seen anything in this election cycle?
09:36Yes.
09:36So I think primarily it's still cost of living.
09:39It's still housing.
09:41But we do see certain issues come up that aren't actually, actually, it's interesting.
09:47It's not strictly race and religion.
09:48It's related, but not completely.
09:50So like in Malaysia, over the past year or so, we've seen a lot of concern over what's happening in Palestine.
09:57Now, historically, that has been a Malay Muslim issue.
10:01But what's interesting now, it's expanded beyond the Malay Muslim community in Singapore and become a sort of younger people's issue.
10:07So that also upends some of the older assumptions about Singapore.
10:11And in this election cycle, there were Malaysian politicians who were expressing support for particular political parties in Singapore and also a Singaporean Islamic preacher who was trying to push, I guess, a more conservative message.
10:30So that became a matter of some contention.
10:33And, you know, in terms of the sharp elbowing, the PAP was sort of suggesting that the Workers' Party was involved in some of this, or perhaps being open to some of this machinations.
10:47The Workers' Party came out very early and said, no, you know, we are a party for all Singaporeans.
10:53So you can see that behind that backdrop, there's still this tension of religion going on.
10:57But I think Singapore is trying very hard to be a multicultural and multi-ethnic, multi-religious society.
11:03Right.
11:04Ian, thank you so much for speaking with me.
11:05Always a pleasure to talk to you.
11:07And all the best for tomorrow as you head to the polls.
11:10That was Associate Professor Dr. Ja-Yen Chong from NUS there wrapping up this episode of Consider This.
11:17I'm Melissa Idris signing off for the evening.
11:20Thank you so much for watching and good night.