Singapore heads to the polls in a pivotal election under new leadership. What’s at stake for voters, parties, and the region? We speak to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ja Ian Chong, political analyst from National University of Singapure for a sharp, in-depth analysis. Catch the full conversation on ASEAN KITA.
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00:00Good morning, I'm Amri Raiman and welcome to ASEAN Kita, a show where we explore the stories, challenges and opportunities that lies within the region.
00:16And Singapore is heading into a pivotal general election, the first under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.
00:22But with cost of living pressures and leadership renewal and a rising youth vote, what really is at stake here?
00:30Joining me today via Google Meet is Associate Professor Dr Ja Yen Chong, political analyst from the National University of Singapore to help us unpack the political dynamics, voter mood and what this election could mean, not just for Singaporeans but also to the wider region.
00:45Dr, thank you for joining us this morning. Let's dive right in. This is the first election under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.
00:52How does the 2025 contest differ from previous polls now that the fourth generation team is on the ballot and leadership transition is complete, Doctor?
01:04So I would say that leadership transition is complete at the very top of the PAP.
01:10They are still continuing with their leadership transition process.
01:14So for this time around, we see a pretty big slate of new candidates on the PAP side because their leadership transition was held up previously.
01:23So that's part of what's at stake this time around.
01:27But also, I think what's key is whether Lawrence Wong is able to articulate a vision for Singapore on his own.
01:37Right now, he still lives somewhat under the shadow of the former Prime Minister.
01:44So people need to get a better sense of who Lawrence Wong is.
01:48Not the TikTok Lawrence Wong who plays guitar, but Lawrence Wong who is the Prime Minister who has a vision for Singapore.
01:55This is especially important at a time when Singapore and indeed the region is facing pretty unprecedented challenges and a lot of uncertainty.
02:05Doctor, the PAP is fielding 32 new faces, nearly one-third of its total ticket.
02:12What is the party trying to signal and will the electorate see renewal or will they see risk instead, Doctor?
02:19So, of that slate, a lot of it are younger people.
02:24The PAP is trying to make a move to win the youth vote.
02:28At the same time, the PAP realises that a lot of its current slate is older.
02:34So it has to refresh itself.
02:37It should have done this in 2020.
02:39It should have done this before.
02:41But because of COVID, because of questions over the leadership transition, as some of your audience might know,
02:48initially, the designated Prime Minister was Heng Suu Kiat.
02:53But Heng Suu Kiat had stepped down for health reasons.
02:57He's not running this time around.
02:58And there was a search for his replacement.
03:00So that was Lawrence Wong.
03:01And so now, with Lawrence Wong at the head of the PAP, he needs to bring in, or at least he's trying to bring in his own people.
03:08He's trying to refresh the PAP.
03:10So that's what we're seeing.
03:12With opposition parties contesting 92 of 97 seats and the Workers' Party aiming for a third of the parliament,
03:20what does a credible check and balance look like in this cycle of election this time around, Doctor?
03:26Right. So just a slight correction.
03:28The Workers' Party is fielding, I think, 26 candidates, which is shy, just shy of a third.
03:34The one-third is their medium-term goal, but they're not quite there yet.
03:38They have been building up momentum.
03:41They have a lot of credible candidates, candidates who have a lot of experience and are very well qualified.
03:48Now, that having been said, I think what else we're seeing is a general sort of slate that in Singapore that is getting to sort of bifurcate.
04:01There are a lot of smaller parties, but then there are the bigger parties in opposition in the previous parliament,
04:07the WP, the Workers' Party being the largest one, followed by the Progress Singapore Party and then the Singapore Democratic Party.
04:12And then there's a bunch of others that I think we're seeing a consolidation of the opposition field.
04:18When you talk about credibility in parliament, because of the lack of seats, what we're going to see in parliament is probably more questioning.
04:27But ultimately, it's not going to affect the voting, as in the passage of laws, much less any constitutional amendments.
04:35So, you know, it's going to be possibly a more lively parliament.
04:39And what I think will be tested is the PAP's ability to work across the aisle.
04:46Doctor, when it comes to rallies, housing prices and everyday inflation dominate the rallies this time around,
04:52which policy proposals, PAP's incremental tweaks or WP's broader social safety net are likely to resonate more with the swing voters this time around?
05:03Yeah, that's a really good question.
05:04We don't have opinion polls in Singapore, so it's really hard to tell.
05:08But you're right that the PAP and the WP present two very different visions.
05:13The PAP is offering immediate relief because possibly they can, being that they will form the next government.
05:20The WP is offering more structural changes.
05:23It takes a longer time.
05:25I mean, they've listed the fact that their proposals have come to light over time.
05:28Now, so that's sort of consistent with their position.
05:34But also, I think the WP's argument is, look, Singapore needs to progress and reform itself to fit the current domestic and international situation.
05:43Hence, just being able to address current day issues may not be good enough.
05:48Doctor, I want to talk about GST, the hike in GST when it comes to Singapore.
05:54So, after January 9th, 9% GST step up.
05:58Have voters absorbed the shock or is the hike still a live campaign liability to the PAP party, Doctor?
06:06So, the hike in GST certainly stings.
06:08It continues to sting.
06:09The PAP has offered vouchers to offset.
06:14I suppose the vouchers are calculated to sort of adjust for whatever people might be putting more towards the GST.
06:22The PAP has argued that it is a permanent voucher.
06:25It's not entirely clear what a permanent voucher is to me because you give the voucher, you're not taking it back.
06:31So, it's permanent that way.
06:32But, at any rate, for people, they still do feel the rise in prices.
06:38They still see the rise in prices.
06:40So, yes, there is some relief.
06:43But people are thinking, I think, more in terms of, am I paying more today than six months ago?
06:47Am I paying more today than a year ago?
06:50And some of it is just inflation that everyone is feeling.
06:53But it feels that the GST hike is, you know, putting an additional burden unnecessarily on people.
07:01With an ageing electorate, does the preventive care policy give the PAP a credible answer on healthcare costs?
07:09Or is the opposition universal care rhetoric is gaining ground in Singapore, doctor?
07:15So, I mean, healthcare in Singapore is a perennial issue, especially for older people.
07:21Because healthcare can become very expensive in Singapore.
07:25Especially once you need more specialized treatments.
07:27So, it's one of these issues that is looming, but the full force hasn't been felt yet.
07:34So, right now, I think it's very much of a toss-up between what the PAP is offering
07:39and the more comprehensive changes and reforms that the WP and others are suggesting.
07:46And we want to also bring this conversation to immigration and jobs as well.
07:51So, has the 2023 complementary assessment framework done enough to reassure citizens about the foreign talent inflows?
08:00Or does the job narrative still hurt the incumbents, doctor?
08:04I think the job narrative still hurts the PAP to some degree.
08:11Not as much as it used to.
08:12There has been some relief.
08:14But it's not just the job issue.
08:16There is also a view that as you get more high-income individuals, professionals from overseas moving to Singapore,
08:25they also drive up property prices.
08:27So, it adds to those inflationary pressures.
08:29So, it's not just about a job issue anymore.
08:32And that's something that while the PAP has, I think, somewhat addressed the job issue,
08:37they haven't fully addressed the knock-on effects that come with immigration.
08:41Dr. Tarman Shanmugaratnam won a landslide in 2023.
08:47Does his popularity spill over to the PAP party in contested GRCs?
08:51Or does the popularity remain distinctly personal?
08:55So, this is extremely interesting because to run for the presidency,
09:01Mr. Tarman Shanmugaratnam has to formally quit the PAP, resign from the PAP.
09:06The presidency in Singapore is a non-partisan position.
09:10Now, of course, he's been a member of the PAP for a really long time.
09:13He was the PAP's most popular politician.
09:17You know, even more popular than former Prime Minister, now Senior Minister, Lee Hsien Loong.
09:21So, whether that spills over, I think that's a little bit more in doubt this time
09:27because, you know, he's not obviously being a non-partisan president.
09:32He cannot help the PAP campaign, so that doesn't spill over.
09:36And I think there is also a challenge that, as President Tarman presents to the PAP,
09:44he got, or at least to Lawrence Wong's leadership, he received about 70% of the popular vote as president.
09:52That's really high.
09:54It's close enough to his own popular vote when he last ran for elections.
09:58But that also sets a really high bar for Lawrence Wong.
10:02So, Lawrence Wong obviously has to do better than the 60% of the popular vote that,
10:08around 60% of the popular vote that the PAP got the last time around.
10:11But to really have that boost and to make a claim for credibility has to be as close to Tarman as possible.
10:18And that, I think, is a challenge for him.
10:21To win an election, parties will always focus on the majorities.
10:24But what about the minority in this case, with Masagos and Maliki exiting the cabinet?
10:29How will PAP reassure minority voters that leadership diversity is still intact within the party?
10:36So, the PAP has been constantly sort of emphasizing the role of the minorities in their party and in government.
10:50And this is a slight correction.
10:52Maliki is gone, but Masagos, I think, is competing in Japanese.
10:57So, he's still around.
10:58Now, the issue then would be whether these individuals,
11:04so minorities, especially Malay minorities in Singapore,
11:09have a dual role as candidates and also as politicians.
11:13They have, on the one hand, to be representative of the Malay Muslim community.
11:19At the same time, they have to be representative of all Singaporeans.
11:22So, that's a challenge.
11:23And I guess the Senghor's unique GRC system helps formally keep the place of a minority in parliament.
11:34But whether they are able to juggle that role is the question.
11:38I mean, right now, the PAP is sort of reeling from a debate over not so much its position on Gaza
11:46and the Israeli behavior in Palestine, the excessive behavior of the Israelis in Palestine, I would add.
11:53But also, that commentaries of PAP surrogates have been pretty harsh on those who have been for the Palestinian cause in Singapore.
12:03And the PAP response has been a bit slow.
12:06And I think some of the PAP MPs, especially the Malay MPs, are feeling some of the blowback from that.
12:12We want to talk about women candidates as well.
12:16Both PAP and WP are fielding record numbers of female candidates in this time around.
12:21Could gender representation shape the election, especially in the urban constitucies this time around, Doctor?
12:29I think it's important for sort of shaping some of the discussion.
12:34It's important to have female role models.
12:37But at the same time, I don't think it's so much of a sort of urban versus rural.
12:42Unlike Malaysia, we are pretty much all urban.
12:45And the way that the GRC system is designed is such that all the constituencies more or less look like each other.
12:52So it's not so much an urban thing.
12:54But I think as a gender issue, I mean, not only having women, but having women talk about the issues that women still face in Singapore society as caregivers.
13:05Also as breadwinners, some of the, I think, extra burdens put on them.
13:10I think that will enter the conversation more, especially once parliament starts.
13:13Well, that's a fascinating start, but we're just getting warmed up.
13:17After the break, we'll dive deeper into what this election could mean for the Singaporean and how is it shaping up.
13:23And stay with us on ASEAN Kita.
13:24We'll take a short break.
13:25We'll be right back after this.
13:27Welcome back and you're still watching ASEAN Kita, where in this episode, we are unpacking the Singaporean election with our guest,
13:49Associate Professor Dr. Ja Ian Chong, political analyst from the National University of Singapore.
13:55So, Dr. Growth forecasts have been trimmed and U.S. tariff threats loom.
14:01To what extent is GE 2025 this time becoming a referendum on economic management rather than a governance style, Dr.?
14:10Yeah, that's a really good question.
14:11The PAP has been emphasising the uncertainties and potential sort of economic fallout and how they are a steady hand.
14:21However, because the world is so uncertain right now, how that plays out is actually more difficult to measure than the past.
14:30So, this narrative of a scary, frightening, uncertain outside world with a new for steady hand had worked for the PAP many times in the past.
14:38It didn't so much during COVID during our election.
14:40This time around, because the PAP has demonstrated themselves to be a party that knows globalisation, that is able to handle it well, they haven't quite seemed to have put together a clear narrative about what they're going to do in this uncertainty.
14:58There's the steadiness and all that, sure.
15:00There's an effort to, say, work with ASEAN, to work with international partners who are for the rule of law for free trade.
15:07That's all good, but it's not very concrete right now.
15:09And it does seem a little bit odd that the task force that was formed to deal with the fallout from the tariffs only came about maybe about a week before the writ of election was issued.
15:24So, it's curious, I think, to Singaporeans who are following this, why wasn't there an effort to come to create a task force back in early November 2024?
15:35After all, the tariffs and the approach to the economy that U.S. President Donald Trump is currently implementing, he had talked about during the election for several months.
15:47It's no surprise in some ways.
15:49So, it seems that the PAP is a little bit on back foot.
15:52Currently, they're supposed to be in negotiations with the U.S. about the tariffs and all that.
15:57But just today, the Singaporean mainstream press had talked about, the state-linked mainstream press in Singapore talked about how the U.S. is not going to budge on tariffs, but we're going to explore other aspects of perhaps concessions.
16:11But then, it means that they are not really delivering as yet.
16:15And plus, with that 90-day window, we're going to spend about a month not really being able to move forward.
16:20But why? Because you have a rid of election, and then you have two weeks running for election.
16:26If we're fast, maybe we can get a cabinet together in one week.
16:29That's four weeks out of your 90 days gone.
16:33So, the question is, okay, what is the PAP doing?
16:36Are they really able to meet the sort of new circumstances that we're facing now?
16:42That remains a big question.
16:44Let's go to the demographic of the voters.
16:48Early half of voters are under 40, and consuming campaigns on TikTok and YouTube and other social medias.
16:56So, I want to ask you, does the PAP still face a groupthink perception problem?
17:02And how are opposition parties like WP capitalizing on it, Doctor?
17:07All right, so this is actually quite interesting.
17:08The PAP has been trying hard to get out of this sort of criticism of groupthink.
17:15They've been trying to push out their candidates more, but they've got 97 candidates.
17:19And as you know, a third are new.
17:22So, they're trying to put forward their imprint.
17:26Now, that means that you have lots of different voices also appearing on social media,
17:32and it creates a certain degree of noise, and people, I think, can be somewhat confused about who is who.
17:38Whereas, with fewer candidates, the other parties, the WP, SDP, PSP, others,
17:46they're able to draw more attention to the individuals who are running.
17:51And hence, they appear to have a more coherent message.
17:54So, that's the sort of media, especially the social media side.
17:59The state-affiliated media, I mean, of course, they've been trying to, I think, present a more even-handed approach this time around.
18:06But, of course, at least by reading, there's still a little bit more preference for the PAP in terms of time and coverage.
18:14But what really matters is still in the constituencies.
18:17Because we don't have polling, you can only get a sense on the ground.
18:21The excitement online may not translate to votes on the ground because they could be too dispersed.
18:28So, for instance, also, you see these big Workers' Party rallies with people coming from all across Singapore to attend.
18:34But they don't vote in those constituencies.
18:37By 2030, one in four citizens will be above 65.
18:42So, from your analysis, which manifesto offers the most credible plan for long-term care financing, Doctor?
18:51So, I think the WP manifesto offers probably the best long-term plan, or at least the clearest.
18:58The PAP one, they are offering things for right now, which is okay.
19:03I mean, they're very incremental anyway.
19:05So, they haven't really presented a long-term plan in the way that the WP has.
19:10Maybe they have one in their pocket, the PAP, but it's not really apparent right now.
19:16Doctor, Singapore's traditional neutrality is tested right now by the US-China rivalry.
19:22Will voters reward a steadier hand or push for a clearer alignment in an increasing bipolar world, Doctor?
19:31So, I think the question isn't so much alignment.
19:35I think the question is more direction.
19:37So far, I think the issue with Singapore is that it's talked about not choosing sides and sent sort of signals of trying to work with everybody, which is okay.
19:47It's fair enough.
19:48But what is our own direction?
19:52What kind of equities are we protecting?
19:54That is something that needs to be articulated more clearly.
19:57There's been some attempts in the past, but I think given the confusion of today, the clearer that message of where we are going, where our interests lie in Singapore, that clarity and direction can be actually assuring.
20:10You mentioned that Singapore has been famous for its neutrality, the narrative of neutrality, but which party frames Singapore's foreign policy neutrality most convincingly to a public wary of great power rivalry spillover, Doctor?
20:31Okay, so I think one point of clarification, this is actually a really good example.
20:36People think that Singapore has a policy of neutrality that it doesn't do anything.
20:43That's not actually correct.
20:45What Singapore tries to do is to say that it is for things like the rule of law internationally.
20:54It is for things like having a more open international economic system, and it will work with whoever moves forward on those fronts.
21:04So it's not sort of strict neutrality, you take no side, but it wants to have a certain direction, but the fact that many people think that it is neutrality suggests that that message of direction is not really coming across.
21:18Doctor, lately there has been a food security anxiety between voters, and not just in Singapore, but also in Malaysia as well, in the region as well, with the US-China rivalry and also some geopolitical tensions abroad.
21:31So, which party in Singapore right now articulates the most resilient supply strategy?
21:37So, on the supply strategy, okay, this is one thing that PAP has been very good at talking about 30x30, which is 30% of Singapore's basic protein being grown in Singapore by 2030.
21:51So, that has been a pretty catchy approach, except that how much that's being realised is a little bit more in question.
22:01So, but this is also an issue of being the incumbent, right?
22:08When you're running government, you have to deliver.
22:11When you're in opposition, you are more able to critique.
22:15You don't have that same responsibility or pressure to deliver.
22:20So, narrative-wise, I think the PAP is clear on what they want, but I think because people are seeing and feeling the delivery, they probably demand more.
22:28Recently, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong have signalled a warning to two of Malaysians, one of them, a PAP leader, about roughing up all the racial tensions issues into Singapore.
22:43Does Singapore voters have an effect in this kind of issue, such as racial tensions, or it only happens in Malaysia and not in Singapore, in your lens, Doctor?
22:54Now, Singapore has issues with race.
22:57They play out differently from Malaysia.
22:59It's something that we all need to work on.
23:02Now, the issue of people from overseas trying to push, I think, what they believe are sort of like-minded with their sort of theological leanings, whatever, is an issue that Singapore is grappling with.
23:18I think, in terms of elections and electorally, the effects are going to be largely marginal, but I think most Singaporeans are pretty wary of this pushing of racial tensions.
23:34Although, in our own context, this is the sort of issues of privilege, the issues of not understanding.
23:40I mean, so Singapore has the CMIO model, which is, I guess, a parallel to Malaysia's MCIO model, Malay-Chinese-Indiana, right?
23:48And the approach had been to, okay, every sort of community does their own thing.
23:53So that sometimes means less understanding across communities.
23:57We had this very unfortunate incident last Saturday where a SDP candidate, thinking, believing that she was trying to be chummy, basically expressed, articulated racial slurs against her Indian GRC teammate.
24:18So that suggests that these issues of race, we still need to work on in Singapore.
24:24Doctor, veterans like Ng Ng Han and Ng Sui Kiat are stepping down.
24:29Does the PAP have enough recognized next-gen heavyweights to reassure voters on succession planning, Doctor?
24:36So this is a really great question because there is some confusion.
24:40It's confusion because the PAP, yes, they have some of their older leaders step down.
24:48They're saying that they have a new slate of people who can take over, who are highly competent.
24:51Yet, at the same time, you know, when they move people like Gan Kim Yong to a different constituency, Tan Si Ling to another, these are heavyweights as well.
25:01So the claim is, well, voters need to vote for them because there is no good replacement.
25:06It's indispensable, especially Gan Kim Yong, who in the last government was deputy prime minister.
25:11So does the PAP have good candidates to take over or do they not?
25:17If they do, then losing a Gan Kim Yong would be okay.
25:21If they don't, then the question is why are they so brittle?
25:24So some of that messaging, as I had mentioned earlier, can be a bit confusing, and that's what we're seeing.
25:28Maybe final question, Doctor, for this episode, looking at the latest polling, candidate slates and ground sentiment we've discussed.
25:38How do you see GE 2025 playing out on both in terms of overall vote share and the key GRCs or SMCs most likely to change hands?
25:48And what single wildcard factors could still swing the result at the last minute, Doctor?
25:54So polling, we obviously don't have that here, but I think that the constituencies in the east of Singapore, so the ones that the Workers' Party are contesting, will probably be quite close.
26:06Historically, in the past few election cycles, they've come quite close to the PAP.
26:10So the question is whether they are able to, you know, get over the top with constituencies such as Pongol, such as Tampines, these are big GRCs, and make headway.
26:23Of course, some people are wondering if they are able to hold on to Sengkang GRC.
26:27There's also the question of whether they're able to make headway in Changkak Changi SMC, but more importantly, Jalan Kayu.
26:35Jalan Kayu has become a side of some focus in this election because the PAP is trying to put the former minister, he lost in 2020.
26:47Now, they're trying to put him, this is Eng Ji Ming, former Chief of Defence Force, into contesting Jalan Kayu.
26:53But he's been, I guess, associated with the very controversial effort by NTUC, he's head of NTUC, to sell its insurance to Alliance.
27:06That had to be rescinded, so it's becoming a big area of contention.
27:10And Andre Lowe, who previously, from the Workers' Party, who previously not really been noticed, is putting up a pretty good fight.
27:18So that's something to watch.
27:19As for unexpected stuff, I mean, anything could happen.
27:23I think the main thing to watch is to see if candidates from any of the major parties have a major slip-up.
27:29There was a little bit of a close call, I think, with the Workers' Party, with some of the outside influence,
27:34although this had to do with a Singaporean who's based in Malaysia, claiming that the WP had agreed with some of their more conservative views.
27:42That was not the case.
27:43The WP came out quite quickly to clarify that.
27:45I think, more or less, that's sort of settled, so we have to see if any other issues crop up and how the different parties respond.
27:53Well, that's all the time that we have for today's episode on ASEAN Kita.
27:57We would like to thank Associate Professor Dr. Jag Yanchong for his sharp insight into Singapore's evolving political landscape
28:03and what lies ahead as voters head to the polls.
28:07I'm Amirul Aiman.
28:09Until next time, we'll see you again on ASEAN Kita.
28:12ASEAN Kita.