Singapore heads to the polls tomorrow in what is widely seen as a defining general election for the city-state. This is the first electoral test for Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who succeeded Lee Hsien Loong last May. The ruling People’s Action Party, which has been in power since 1959—longer than any other elected party in the world—is now seeking a strong mandate under new leadership—but faces growing pressure over the rising cost of living and calls for more political diversity in Parliament. On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with political analyst Dr Bridget Welsh, honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Malaysia's Asia Research Institute.
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00:00hello and good evening i'm melissa idris welcome to consider this this is the show
00:24where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day singapore
00:29heads to the polls tomorrow in what is widely seen as a defining general election for the
00:35city-state this is going to be the first electoral test for prime minister lawrence wong
00:40who succeeded lee xian lung last may the ruling people's action party which has been in power since
00:471959 which is longer than any other elected party in the world they're now seeking a strong mandate
00:56under new leadership but they face growing pressures over the rising cost of living and
01:02calls for more political diversity in parliament so let's look today at what is at stake in this
01:08election and what it might signal about the future of one of southeast asia's most politically stable
01:15yet tightly managed political systems joining me now is political analyst dr bridget welsh who is
01:22an honorary research associate at the university of nottingham malaysia's asia research institute
01:28bridget thank you so much for being on the show how significant is this general election um in
01:34singapore the first 4pm lawrence wong i'm just wondering what regional observers like yourself are
01:41paying particular attention to it's an important election because uh it's being framed as a test for
01:48the 4g or fourth generation leadership lawrence wong has been prime minister for now almost a year
01:55and he uh the campaign for the pap is organized around him and and basically trying to give him the
02:02mandate um and what's important is that it's that this is really about the first election that doesn't
02:09have the lee family prominently uh the the people's action party is changing as a party yeah we can see
02:16that in the election that there's fielded 32 new candidates which is about a third of the slate
02:21uh for the pap is is a new um uh younger and different type of people um and what we also see
02:29is the fact that you know singapore um is an example for the region uh because uh it it is often a bellwether
02:38of how much discontent there is uh and uh we saw that in previous elections so when the the government
02:45gained vote or lost vote um we can see that the particular the cost of living issue is very uh
02:52prominent um and so i think this uh we will look at singapore because it it is important uh to as a test
03:00of of how uh a good government is managing uh um to deal with uh political pressures and a changing society
03:08well well talk to me about this um it being a bellwether for discontent are there signs of that
03:14are there signs that there's voter appetite for more political diversity in singapore
03:20maybe amongst younger or first-time voters so they're essentially besides the cost of living issue
03:27one of the big issues in the campaign has been political accountability and political representation
03:32um and and in particularly the issues of representation of alternative views uh and hearing
03:38the different voices of singaporeans this has been part of the opposition campaign um you know in the
03:43rallies we can see that that that there's a lot more young people participating um you know last night
03:50in the for example in the workers party rally you could see a lot more young people uh in looking at
03:56singapore elections one can compare it to the 2011 election where we saw a lot of more younger voices
04:01as well um now keep in mind that the last election was during covet for singapore so there were no
04:07political rallies so many people might be coming out just to experience it but the fact of the matter
04:12is is that there are the younger voters are an important cohort in the election um and there are
04:18some races that are going to be closer uh and you know of the you know there are 31 constituencies uh
04:24and um sorry 31 constituencies in singapore um and what happens is that there are um some of them are
04:31group representatives some are single member districts so what we see is a situation where um
04:37um they become more competitive especially for the strongest opposition party the workers party
04:42right uh talk to me about the workers party the opposition so the workers party made gains in the
04:48last election are you seeing momentum built for the opposition and what role does the uh progress
04:56singapore party play in this election there's been comments that it could it's been splitting the
05:01opposition votes what do you think bridgette well you have to keep in mind that the opposition has
05:06always been very fragmented in singapore there's been smaller parties um we have eight eight
05:10political parties that are running we have some new people new parties in the game this time like
05:15the red dot united which people still don't quite understand um but there are but the three main
05:21opposition parties are the workers party uh the people uh progressive uh people's progressive party um
05:27and uh and also the uh singapore democratic party uh these are the main parties um and some of them
05:33contest in different places so of the constituencies and the contests five of them are the multiple
05:38parties contesting most of them are sort of one versus one the workers party is running in about a
05:43quarter of the seats um and they are the ones that have been making the ghost games um they won two
05:49group constituencies in the last election and they're eyeing to try to win two more and a single
05:55member constituency uh so we can see or may uh uh you know they're the ones that are seen to be the
06:02focal point and so in those particular areas of singapore where there it's a much there are more
06:07some sense of more competition um you know uh the other parties are not as strong um comparatively uh
06:15but there are some contests that are seen to be models moderately competitive um why the worker
06:21part workers party is seen as comparatively more successful um than others one is that you know some of
06:29them are uh don't have clear messages and others have been um seen as being uh having demonization
06:36of their leaders in the past uh so the workers party has been uh the one that has gained more traction um
06:43by choosing to be almost what people call pap light uh you know it doesn't it it it's act it's calling for
06:51greater accountability greater policy interventions but at the same time a different type of policies more
06:57accountability uh but not calling for fundamental change um and and you know to keep in mind that
07:03even if the workers party won all of its seats it would still uh the pap would still have 75 almost
07:10over 70 percent of the seats so it is a it you know the their the opposition is trying to get a
07:16foothold in in the in the parliament uh and build on that foothold as opposed to take over the government
07:22the pp is going to win definitely right but then pap has also said that um you know they're concerned
07:30that any losses or any gains made by the opposition would mean a weaker government meaning uh less
07:38good governance or uh less possibility to govern well um and singapore being often cited as an example
07:46being a highly efficient country do you think that this single ruling party that the strong mandate
07:53that uh prime minister lawrence wong is seeking is that sustainable for singapore in the long run or
07:59do you think some degree of liberalization some degree of political pluralism is inevitable for singapore
08:08so let's take each of those issues uh separately a strong mandate uh for in most elections is to win over
08:15you know 60 of the vote and 60 and 60 of the seats now the real question for a lot of watchers in the
08:22singapore election is the is a popular vote um and i think uh um you know given that we have some weak
08:28opposition candidates and parties in um in some of the seats it's likely that uh this gives an advantage
08:35to the pp in terms of popular vote but everybody's watching that the second aspect of that is uh do
08:41are singaporeans asking for more representation and i think yes we definitely see that and this is a
08:47product of the fact that the society is changing uh there are new uh you know the thing that i often
08:53hear from voters is they say we want more and you know the the pp has delivered a lot on uh on on
09:00picking up economic fundamentals and issues associated with um uh housing and others but there is a sense
09:06that you know uh for younger generations and many older generations that they want the model to
09:11evolve to change to transform greater security social security and areas like healthcare um and
09:17they also want a sense that the some voters want to be recognized um in this context so we see those
09:22issues that are are quite salient um uh compared to compared to the past um and and the and the other
09:30impact is that social media has changed the nature of how people get information the pp no longer controls
09:35than political narrative and so it has to manage diverse voices uh and there are some of these
09:41issues have come up in the campaign um so we can see that this is a um you know a transformed society
09:47and i do believe that the pp's expectations you know in the ppl rally they're calling uh for a strong
09:54mandate uh because this is this is what they know um and in their own rallies that we can see this uh in
10:01in terms of their discourse but the fact is is that i think there is a recognition that singapore is a
10:06different place where um with different sets of demands the question is how those demands can be met
10:11okay so are there having said all of that other lessons to take uh from singapore's current political
10:20evolution uh both in terms of strengths and weaknesses um and shortcomings bridget well just to kind of one
10:27issue i haven't mentioned which i think is important is that the issue about gaza and the issue associated
10:33with uh the malay vote is going to be very important so one of the group so so we have if we look at the
10:38contest then punggul and and tamponese uh jalankaya these are some of the constituencies where there are
10:45it's a seem to be an intense political fight um what we see is that in a place like tamponese which has uh
10:51uh 20 almost 25 of the voters in place uh and this is an issue that has evolved uh in this process so
10:59what i'm why am i mentioning this because uh there are these pressures on the government on these
11:04particular policy areas uh and the lessons are is that you know you can't control your election even
11:10domestically that these issues come from outside uh you know and in a place like singapore that is uh
11:15the global environment the issues of tariffs the issues of uh uh what's happening in the world are
11:20coming home uh and i think uh uh that that is an important uh question the other issue is that
11:28uh you know is to is how you can evolve your policies how you can change and this is the real
11:33challenge um for the pap is that the model of economic growth the model of political uh representation
11:40is facing pressure um and this is inevitable we also see a situation where the pp is used uh you know
11:49grocery coupons uh tax cuts and others but the voters are looking at the gst and taxes and so uh we
11:57can see whether or not these types of goodies are adequate or whether or not the voters are actually
12:02expecting more the nature of of of how to win voters um has actually shifted and uh you know the pp and
12:10lawrence wong faces a real challenge because he doesn't have the legitimacy of the of the founders of
12:15the past and others so this is this is a new generation of leaders and so for all of the region
12:21uh you know it what is that what is at stake is how do you actually build credibility with your voters
12:29how do you translate policies into success uh in terms of uh acceptance and support and the pp will do
12:36well they do there you know this is there are discussions of policies such as housing just foreign
12:40talent in the context of singapore but the external environment uh is much harder to control so
12:47expectations have to change bridget so um let's look so you said pap will win uh either way but what
12:53if they don't get that strong mandate that they so desire what if they don't get the popular vote
12:59above 60 percent in 2020 or 61 so very uh already the lowest it's ever been uh what do you think that
13:06would mean for singapore's political system how might uh it impact uh the results of this election
13:13impact if it doesn't go well for the ruling pap so you know singapore sets high standards and standards
13:19and the standards are uh not normal international standards in terms of performance and i think one
13:25should you know this is a step back and say if they won 50 51 of the popular vote um uh they've done well
13:31all right you know uh uh you know malaysians knows this very well uh you know it's a question you
13:37you do want to win enough seats to win the parliament uh which the pap will and then you want to you know
13:41so i think the standards are out of out of whack from a perspective of global global perspectives um uh you
13:49know uh there will however be consequences uh if there is um a uh um very significant drop in popular
13:57vote which i don't think will be the case uh because of the nature of the contest uh but i think uh
14:02their popular vote um you know is things that swing at the last level you know it's a mandatory
14:08election and compulsory voting so 94 percent of singaporeans vote the other ones are overseas
14:14all right so that and that changes the kind of the composition of of what is happening um but if there
14:20is a a real they don't get the strong mandate there may be some pressures on the leadership um internally
14:26um there also may be uh you know a degree of kind of um a step back and figuring out and reflection on
14:33policies one hope is if that's the latter uh there you know they'll be looking for better solutions
14:39but you know i expect that the mandate will be strong by international standards irrespective of of
14:46what happens but everything is always about perceptions and framing uh and we'll see how that evolves
14:52all right bridget thank you so much for speaking with me that was political analyst
14:56dr bridgette welsh there we're going to take a quick break here and consider this we'll be back with
14:59more stay tuned