日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2025年3月15日 トランプ関税で日米の株価急落！今後は？新NISAは我慢か撤退か？
#EnglishMovie #cdrama #drama #engsub #chinesedramaengsub #movieshortfull
#EnglishMovie #cdrama #drama #engsub #chinesedramaengsub #movieshortfull
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00Good morning.
00:13Today is the 15th of March.
00:14It's the Nikkei Saturday News.
00:16Let me introduce today's guests.
00:19This is Mr. Takashi Hiroki, Chief Strategist of Manex.
00:23Thank you for joining us.
00:25And this is Mr. Shunsuke Kobayashi, Chief Economist of Mizuho.
00:29Thank you for joining us.
00:32And this is Mr. Masayuki Tamura, Editor-in-Chief of Nihon Keizai Shimbun.
00:36Thank you for joining us.
00:37Thank you for joining us.
00:39Now that we have all three guests here, let's take a look at this week's topic.
00:42This week's topic is the market.
00:45Japan, the U.S., and the stock market.
00:50This time, especially since January of last year,
00:56the maximum profit is 3.6 million yen a year.
01:03I'm sure some of you have invested up to 7.2 million yen.
01:09But the stock market is down both in Japan and the U.S.
01:13so I wonder what we should do.
01:16I'm sure many of you are wondering if we should hold back or retreat.
01:21So, while looking ahead to the stock market,
01:25I'd like to take a look at the stock market and dig deeper into this area.
01:30Yes, and here we have Trump Session.
01:35Yes, we don't know what will happen in the end.
01:39Recently, the word Trump Session has been used to refer to Trump's recession.
01:46However, the stock market will move depending on Trump's policy.
01:50So, of course, the topic is how we should look at this.
01:54Yes.
01:55Now, let's take a look at this week's topic.
01:58Let's take a look at how the Japanese and American stocks are doing.
02:09Since the Trump administration came to power,
02:14the market has been in turmoil due to the increasing inflationary policies.
02:24In an interview with Fox News on the 9th,
02:28President Trump was asked if he would predict a recession.
02:32He replied that there is a short period of time before the economy is able to adapt to the inflation.
02:37He did not deny the possibility of a short period of time before the economy is able to adapt to the inflation.
02:43After that, the New York Dow fell by 4 days to 13 days,
02:48and at the end, it fell to $4813.
02:52The total decline was $1,988.
02:58The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of the Treasury
03:03did not care about the 3-week decline,
03:07and showed a strong stance.
03:10On the 13th, President Trump was told that the EU and the European Union had announced a return on interest,
03:18and expressed 200% interest in avoiding the EU.
03:23The interest policy has continued to be unclear.
03:28On the 14th, the New York Dow fell to $41,488.
03:34It fell to $41,488 on the 5th,
03:37but we do not know if it will continue to fall.
03:41The people who are worried about this situation
03:45are those who started investing in the New York Stock Exchange in January last year.
03:52It is said that many of them are buying index-type investment options for the stock market around the world.
04:01It is said that some people are wondering if it is okay to continue investing in the US stock market, which is at the center of it.
04:11What is the investment strategy at this unclear time?
04:18And what will happen to the Japanese stock market, which is likely to be dragged down by the US stock market?
04:25At one point, the Japanese stock market fell by 37,000 yen, but on the 14th, it rebounded.
04:31Compared to the US stock market, which is said to be in the adjustment phase,
04:34the Japanese stock market fell sharply,
04:38and recovered 37,053 yen and around 37,000 yen at the end.
04:46However, it seems that the situation where you cannot predict the future of the stock market,
04:51such as the influence of the exchange rate due to the rise in Japanese silver, and the Trump administration, will continue for the time being.
04:57What is the future development of the Japanese and American markets?
05:03The future development of the Japanese and American markets will proceed with these three themes today.
05:08First of all, let's start with the Japanese and American stocks.
05:13The Japanese and American stocks continue to develop at an alarming rate.
05:18The Japanese and American stocks continue to run around 37,000 yen.
05:24Yesterday's end was 37,053 yen.
05:28From last fall to the end of February this year, the annual market price of 38,000 to 40,000 yen
05:34has come down to the level of 38,000 yen.
05:41Last year, the market price rose 19% in one year,
05:45but this year it has fallen by about 7%.
05:49Last July, the market price fell by about 12% from the highest point.
05:54On the 14th, the market price of New York Dow Jones fell by about 2,000 dollars.
06:02On the 14th, the market price of New York Dow Jones fell by about 2,000 dollars.
06:09However, from last December's highest point of 45,014 dollars,
06:14the market price has fallen by 7.8%.
06:18I don't understand this, but Mr. Hiroki, what is the cause of this?
06:23One of the reasons is that the Trump administration's
06:30anti-nuclear policy has been in the limelight for a long time.
06:37It is unclear whether the anti-nuclear policy will be implemented or not.
06:48So we don't know where this will land.
06:52Even if it is implemented, the impact it will have on the world economy is unknown.
06:59This is one of the reasons why the world economy is in a bad situation.
07:04Another reason is that the Trump administration's policy
07:09has been in the limelight for a long time.
07:12It is unclear whether the Trump administration's policy
07:17will be implemented or not.
07:20This is one of the reasons why the world economy is in a bad situation.
07:26This is one of the reasons why the world economy is in a bad situation.
07:31This is one of the reasons why the world economy is in a bad situation.
07:36If there is a concern about inflation,
07:39it will be difficult to lower the price.
07:43That's right.
07:45The high-tech companies in the U.S.
07:50The high-tech companies in the U.S.
07:53have been supported by the U.S.
07:56because they have a higher interest rate.
08:00But we don't know what will happen.
08:04The U.S. is selling a lot now.
08:07The U.S. is selling a lot now.
08:10The U.S. is selling a lot now.
08:13Let's look at the high-tech companies.
08:16PR is about how much stock prices are added to the profits of a company.
08:22PR is about how much stock prices are added to the profits of a company.
08:28The rightmost column is
08:31the stock price of all the companies.
08:35The stock price of all the companies.
08:39Mr. Kobayashi, what is the cause?
08:44I think the Trump administration is responsible for this.
08:49But the reason is
08:52the U.S. stock market is too hot.
08:55The U.S. stock market is too hot.
09:00If the stock market is the reason,
09:03why the Chinese stock market is doing so well
09:08is hard to explain.
09:11As a result of the strong rise in the U.S. stock market in the past,
09:15the U.S. stock market is highly evaluated, as shown in the previous PR.
09:19On the contrary, the U.S. stock market has reached a point where it cannot continue to grow unless it produces high-quality stock.
09:26The Trump administration has been doing a good job in taxing the U.S. stock market until last year.
09:34However, in order to tax the U.S. stock market, the U.S. stock market needs to be taxed.
09:36In other words, the U.S. stock market needs to be taxed, and the U.S. stock market needs to be taxed.
09:38This time, the U.S. stock market is facing a bad situation.
09:41Therefore, the U.S. stock market needs to be taxed.
09:47So, where is the U.S. stock market going?
09:54Yes, where is the U.S. stock market going?
09:57As Mr. Kobayashi said, the U.S. stock market is going to China.
10:02The U.S. stock market is going to China, which is considered a safe investment.
10:06On the 13th, the U.S. stock market exceeded $3,000 for the first time.
10:12There is a sign that money is flowing into European stocks, which are falling behind.
10:19Mr. Kobayashi, if you say it's a perfect problem,
10:23it would be strange if the U.S. stock market fell because Europe and China are suffering damage.
10:28However, money is flowing in this direction.
10:30The U.S. stock market is going to China, which is considered a safe investment.
10:34The U.S. stock market is going to China, which is considered a safe investment.
10:36How do you analyze this situation?
10:39Until now, the U.S. stock market was collecting too much money.
10:46However, if you think about it,
10:48the Trump administration's policy is not always rosy for the U.S. economy and companies.
10:54I think that's what's going on now.
10:58However, the money itself is not disappearing.
11:01The theme now is where to sell U.S. stocks to get rid of the money.
11:05For example, in the U.S., there is still a 4% interest rate.
11:11This is attractive.
11:13Or, if there is a high possibility that inflation will continue in the future,
11:17you can buy gold to hedge it.
11:20Or, unlike the U.S. stock market, there is a discount.
11:24On top of that, there is another theme.
11:26For example, there is a policy expectation for China.
11:30For Europe, there is an expectation for a slow recovery.
11:32Or, there is an expectation for the expansion of output in Germany.
11:37Now, the money is flowing to a place with a discount and a theme.
11:41I think that's why the U.S. stock market is being adjusted.
11:46I think this is a miscalculation of this year.
11:51Last year, there were a lot of things like this year's forecast.
11:56Speaking of the bad situation, China is in a very bad situation.
11:59And Europe is also in a very bad situation.
12:02So, China and Europe can't buy.
12:04However, it is difficult for the U.S. to focus on one thing and buy.
12:07Then, Japan has a good chance of winning.
12:10It was seen as if money would come into Japan as well.
12:16After all, because there is no place to go, money continues to enter the U.S.
12:20So, Japan and the U.S. stock prices are good, but China and Europe are not good.
12:25I think that was the consensus.
12:27However, this year, it is completely the opposite.
12:30That is to say, if it's not good, it's not good.
12:34China is already very much led by the government.
12:38There are some parts that are actually effective by taking economic measures.
12:42So, Europe is doing a lot of fine work in its own way.
12:46I think that's what supports the stock market.
12:50On the other hand, what the U.S. is doing is rather bouncing back to its own place.
12:56As Mr. Kobayashi just said,
12:58the U.S. is doing more and more policies that are not very good for the U.S. companies.
13:04In Japan, it's okay to say that there is no policy at all.
13:10It's tough.
13:11If that's the case, there's no way money will come into Japan.
13:15And if the Chinese bank is showing the attitude of bouncing back to the world,
13:21I think it's natural for money to go to Europe and China, as it is now.
13:30Mr. Tamura, in the Nikkei Shimbun, you continue to write articles in the field of asset management.
13:37How is the analysis so far?
13:39Well, in the Nikkei Shimbun, foreign companies' investment rates have changed a lot.
13:46There has always been a debate about whether S&P, an American company, is good,
13:50or whether Orkan, a global company, is good.
13:54Orkan has changed a lot, but S&P,
13:57there were quite a few investors who were very focused on S&P because they thought the U.S. was strong.
14:03But if you look at the numbers from this year,
14:06the U.S. stock price has dropped by more than 10%,
14:09while Orkan's stock price has remained at about 8%.
14:12The reason why there is relatively less damage is, as Mr. Hiroki said,
14:16for example, new countries and countries other than the U.S. are doing well.
14:23The same is true for Oshima.
14:25So, I think it's a phenomenon that we're seeing right now that distribution is important.
14:33Orkan, All Country, this is also about 60% of the U.S. stock,
14:39but about 40% of it is from other countries.
14:42Is it like that because it's still being distributed,
14:45and the damage is still under control?
14:48That's right.
14:49In terms of stocks, it's 40% outside of the U.S.
14:52In terms of exchange rates, if it's the U.S. stock price, it's all in the U.S. dollar.
14:57So, if it's in the yen, I see.
14:59From the Japanese point of view, it's a big loss, but it's being mitigated.
15:05If it's Orkan, 40% of it is from other countries, including Japan.
15:10Let's take a look at the exchange rate.
15:13The exchange rate is also going up in the yen.
15:20It's still in the range we saw last year, but it's going up in the yen.
15:27Mr. Kobayashi, what do you think?
15:30Yes, I have the impression that the difference in interest rates between Japan and the U.S. is working.
15:35In terms of the U.S., the U.S. dollar is going down,
15:39and the interest rates are going down in the so-called risk-off.
15:43However, in terms of Japan, the Japanese bank is expected to raise interest rates pretty quickly.
15:50That's the outlook we have in the market.
15:53The Japanese bank doesn't deny that.
15:56In that situation, the Japanese long-term interest rates are going up.
16:00The interest rates between Japan and the U.S. are going down,
16:04and the yen is going up.
16:08Mr. Hiroki, what do you think?
16:10Yes, that's the difference in interest rates.
16:15Before that, the exchange rate market has been like that for a long time.
16:22Recently, in particular, it's gone too far.
16:26The yen and yen-off have gone too far.
16:29I think the reaction to that is going back to the way it was.
16:33I think it's going to be a movement that simply amplifies the movement of interest rates.
16:40Let's take a look at that.
16:42This is the position.
16:44One of the recent trends in yen-off is that the exchange rate of hedge funds and other long-term dollars has been the largest in the past.
16:55According to the U.S. Exchange Trade Commission,
16:58the exchange rate of hedge funds as of the 4th of this month was about 16.7 billion yen,
17:05which is 40% more than the previous week.
17:08President Trump's announcement of a yen-off extension and his concerns about the U.S. economy
17:13have spurred the movement of yen-off and dollar sales.
17:16The fact that the exchange rate of hedge funds is so high means that
17:20if the exchange rate of hedge funds and other long-term dollars are reversed,
17:23there will be a pressure on yen-off in the future.
17:26Mr. Kobayashi, as Mr. Hiroki said,
17:29is this a reflection of the movement of interest rates?
17:33I think so.
17:35This was mentioned in the chart earlier,
17:38but the level of interest rates has already exceeded the level of last summer.
17:46It's true that this level of interest rates has been around since the Lehman Shock,
17:53but I don't think Lehman Shock is going through a meltdown right now.
18:01In that sense, it's a little too much,
18:03and I think it's a time when we're starting to worry about a little bit of a rebound in yen-off.
18:07The fact that the exchange rate of hedge funds is so high means that
18:10when the time comes when we have to dispose of it again,
18:13we can see that there is an accumulation of yen-off magma.
18:17As you said, if the exchange rate of hedge funds is reversed due to some reason,
18:21this position will be lost,
18:23so there is a risk that it will return to the position of selling yen-off again for a loss.
18:30Mr. Komashiro, please predict what will happen to the Japanese and American stocks at the end of this year.
18:44Next, I would like to ask Mr. Hiroki and Mr. Kobayashi to predict the whereabouts of the Japanese and American stocks.
18:52Mr. Filippo, please.
18:54First of all, let's start with Mr. Kobayashi.
18:57What kind of swing will the Japanese and American stocks be in this year?
19:02On the right side, you wrote about the range at which the dollar-yen rate will move.
19:09Mr. Kobayashi, could you explain that?
19:11Yes. I think we're going to go through a little bit of a worrisome period from here on out.
19:16Specifically, at the beginning of April,
19:19there is a deadline for the final issuance of customs duties on the United States and Canada.
19:25To be honest, I think it will be difficult to find a clue to the truth by then.
19:32However, if it comes out, there is a possibility that we may be able to put a song on it.
19:38And then, it's easy to forget,
19:40but there is a possibility that we may be able to put a song on it.
19:45And then, it's easy to forget,
19:47but there is a possibility that we may be able to put a song on it.
19:51In fact, there is a possibility that we may be able to put a song on it.
19:57So, on the contrary, if we pass the deadline,
20:00we won't have to do it at such a high speed.
20:03Then, I think the timing of the deadline is the timing of a big rebound.
20:09So, if it's summer, I think we can expect a big return in that area.
20:15In any case, it's a big influence on Trump's policy.
20:21Let's talk about customs duties.
20:27First of all, let's talk about customs duties.
20:29Recently, iron and aluminum customs duties were issued on the 12th.
20:33In Japan as well, 25% additional customs duties will be applied.
20:38In Japan as well, 25% additional customs duties will be applied.
20:42On the 14th, Secretary-General Ratnick appeared on a Fox Business program.
20:47He said that if he were to impose a customs duty on a country,
20:50he would have to impose a customs duty on all countries.
20:54He said that if he were to impose a customs duty on a country, he would have to impose a customs duty on all countries.
20:58According to the Joint Customs Treaty,
21:01the Trump administration will make the details known on April 2,
21:05according to the Joint Customs Treaty.
21:08Then, let's look at the legislation on the reduction of customs duties.
21:12This is the economic policy that the market expects.
21:16The Trump administration's economic policy that the market expects has a limitation.
21:20The reduction of customs duties, the expensiveness of individual income customs duties,
21:24and the exemption of chip and remittance fees are considered.
21:28Customs duties will also be restricted.
21:31Exemption of greenhouse gas emissions,
21:34exemption of exhaust gas from automobiles,
21:37mining of coal and natural gas, and so on.
21:40Mr. Kobayashi, again, including the stock price forecast,
21:43on April 2, there is a complete deadlock.
21:48After that,
21:51it will be almost like this.
21:54At the time of the deadlock,
21:57there will be a sense of opacity.
22:00After that, where will the customs duty be decided?
22:03This is a big point.
22:06As you said, these two will be the mountains ahead in half a year.
22:10At the beginning of April,
22:13as I mentioned earlier,
22:16there are a lot of menus lined up.
22:19If this is decided,
22:22I expect that it will not be a complete deadlock.
22:27Mr. Kobayashi, what you are saying is,
22:30for example, steel and aluminum remain,
22:33but in the case of automobiles,
22:36including Japan, 25% of the customs duties will be applied.
22:39In other words, it is not used as a means of deal.
22:42Even if this remains,
22:45will it become such a stock price?
22:48In that case, will it be a completely different scenario?
22:51In that case,
22:54I think that the timing will come once.
22:57To give you a specific number,
23:00for example, the cars Japan exports to the United States
23:03cost about 8 trillion yen per year.
23:06So, if 25% of the customs duties are applied,
23:09it will cost about 2 trillion yen.
23:12Or, what is made in Mexico or Canada and sold in the United States
23:15is also 5 trillion yen,
23:18so it will cost about 3.3 trillion yen.
23:21In other words, it will cost about 3.3 trillion yen.
23:24In that case,
23:27if you look at the average of Japan,
23:30I think that it is not strange to go down by about 5%.
23:33Then, the main scenario that Mr. Kobayashi is thinking of
23:36is that automobiles are used as a material for deals
23:39and the main scenario is to lower the fist
23:42that Trump raised somewhere.
23:45That's right. That's the main scenario.
23:48If it really gets the worst,
23:51I think it will be in the form of lowering this range
23:54by about 5% overall.
23:57Thank you for waiting, Mr. Hiroki.
24:00It's the same as Mr. Kobayashi
24:03to go up at the end of the year,
24:06but there is a mountain before that, right?
24:09That's right. I think that the story of the mountain in April is the same.
24:12If you go beyond that,
24:15for example, what is there in Japan?
24:18I think that the budget announcement will be
24:21from the end of April to the middle of May.
24:24After that, I think that it will probably be
24:27about the increase of one-digit value
24:30based on the sales of the next season.
24:33So, if you break down the expected value of the next season,
24:36I don't think it's such a difficult scenario
24:39to break down the expected value of the next season.
24:42Right now, there are 37,000 units
24:45and it's a slow movement.
24:4837,000 to 40,000 yen is actually only 3,000 yen
24:51and it's not even 10%.
24:54So, I think that 40,000 yen is enough
24:57to break down the increase of one-digit value.
25:00I think that there will be another downturn
25:03even once beyond that.
25:06I think that there will be another downturn
25:09even once beyond that.
25:12I think that there will be another downturn
25:15even once beyond that.
25:18I think that there will be another downturn
25:21even once beyond that.
25:24I think that there will be another downturn
25:27even once beyond that.
25:30I think that there will be another downturn
25:33I think that there will be another downturn
25:36I think that there will be another downturn
25:39I think that there will be another downturn
25:42I think that there will be another downturn
25:45I think that there will be another downturn
25:48I think that there will be another downturn
25:51I think that there will be another downturn
25:54I think that there will be another downturn
25:57I think that there will be another downturn
26:00I think that there will be another downturn
26:03I think that there will be another downturn
26:06I think that there will be another downturn
26:09I think that there will be another downturn
26:12I think that there will be another downturn
26:15I think that there will be another downturn
26:18I think that there will be another downturn
26:21I think that there will be another downturn
26:24I think that there will be another downturn
26:27I think that there will be another downturn
26:30I think that there will be another downturn
26:33I think that there will be another downturn
26:36I think that there will be another downturn
26:39I think that there will be another downturn
26:42I think that there will be another downturn
26:45I think that there will be another downturn
26:48I think that there will be another downturn
26:51I think that there will be another downturn
26:54I think that there will be another downturn
26:57I think that there will be another downturn
27:00I think that there will be another downturn
27:03I think that there will be another downturn
27:06I think that there will be another downturn
27:09I think that there will be another downturn
27:12I think that there will be another downturn
27:15I think that there will be another downturn
27:18I think that there will be another downturn
27:21I think that there will be another downturn
27:24I think that there will be another downturn
27:27I think that there will be another downturn
27:30I think that there will be another downturn
27:33I think that there will be another downturn
27:36I think that there will be another downturn
27:39I think that there will be another downturn
27:42I think that there will be another downturn
27:45I think that there will be another downturn
27:48The results of Shunto were pretty good
27:51There was a bit of a rollback
27:54There was a bit of a rollback
27:57There was a bit of a rollback
28:00There was a bit of a rollback
28:03There was a bit of a rollback
28:06There was a bit of a rollback
28:09There was a bit of a rollback
28:12There was a bit of a rollback
28:15There was a bit of a rollback
28:18There was a bit of a rollback
28:21There was a bit of a rollback
28:24There was a bit of a rollback
28:27There was a bit of a rollback
28:30There was a bit of a rollback
28:33There was a bit of a rollback
28:36There was a bit of a rollback
28:39There was a bit of a rollback
28:43The raw materials for the yen-yasu and yen-daka
28:46The raw materials for the yen-yasu and yen-daka
28:49The raw materials for the yen-yasu and yen-daka
28:52The raw materials for the yen-yasu and yen-daka
28:55The raw materials for the yen-yasu and yen-daka
28:58The raw materials for the yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:01The raw materials for the yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:04The raw materials for the yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:07The raw materials for the yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:10The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:13The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:16The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:19The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:22The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:25The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:28The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:31The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:34The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:37The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:40The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:43The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:46The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:49The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:52The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:55The yen-yasu and yen-daka
29:58The yen-yasu and yen-daka
30:01The yen-yasu and yen-daka
30:04In addition to that
30:07It is exactly the case that the materials are scarce
30:10The materials that are in motion now
30:13It's almost only gold and silver
30:16Rather than gold and silver
30:19It may be good to say that it is only the direction of Japanese and American financial policy
30:22America is down
30:25Although it is stopped now, it is down
30:28In Japan, only the Japanese silver raising stance
30:31It is being paid attention to
30:34But how much can you raise
30:37In a country with such a low potential growth rate
30:40In a country where the population is decreasing
30:43What kind of material do you raise?
30:46In the first place, I'm wondering if I'm raising it now
30:49It's a little long to talk about it
30:52How many more times will you do it?
30:55How far do you bring it?
30:59Roughly speaking
31:02How much more?
31:05If it's at least twice
31:08I wonder if it will be sold out this year
31:11Then, as a stall
31:14In the end, if there is no more material
31:17There is no more material to buy yen
31:20As I mentioned earlier
31:23If the Japanese and American financial policy is moving
31:26In a sense, if the Japanese silver reaches the terminal rate
31:29If you finish raising
31:32Isn't that the end?
31:35Terminal rate is a goal
31:38I think there is a high possibility of reaching the final reach of the production fund this year
31:44I can't think of doing more
31:47Then, according to the story of the same period
31:50In a strong sense
31:54At the end of the year
31:57The situation of going back to the terminal rate
32:00I don't think it's strange
32:03After the commercial break
32:06I will think about how to operate Shin Nisa
32:09Next, Shin Nisa's investment strategy
32:12I will think about this
32:15First of all, please see here
32:18As of February
32:21The stock price is large
32:24I tried to line up the funds that are targeted
32:27The top two products are big
32:30No. 1
32:33E-MAXIS US stock S&P500
32:36No. 2
32:39E-MAXIS Worldwide Stock All-Country
32:42The stock price is large
32:45You can guess that many people are buying
32:48However, the operating performance of February
32:51As you can see
32:54It's all negative
32:57So-called S&P500
33:00In Japan, this Shin Nisa
33:03It's a situation where I'm focused on these two
33:06That's where the return is getting worse
33:09So really
33:12Whether or not you can keep it
33:15There are many people who are worried
33:18Mr. Tamura, what should I think?
33:21In Nisa
33:24The results of the people who are building
33:27I wonder what it is
33:30In the case of Orkan, which has the most funds
33:33From January last year
33:36If you build a low price
33:39Blue is the building price of Rieke
33:42For a while
33:45The stock price was higher than the building price
33:48In the recent decline
33:51In the case of Orkan, it's a mess
33:54This is again in January 2024
33:57It's a case where you started building from the beginning of Shin Nisa
34:00If you started
34:03If you've been building for 30,000 a month
34:06Simply do the building price
34:09There may or may not be a return
34:12If the red is higher
34:15That's the plus
34:18It's just the right side
34:21It's the same
34:24The people who did this
34:27It's a mess
34:30I have to be careful
34:33From January last year to now
34:36The price of Orkan itself
34:39Maybe less than 20%
34:42Even though it's less than 20%
34:45It's a mess
34:48It's often said that the building price is a man
34:51In the early days
34:54If you can build it at a cheap price
34:57If the stock price goes up after that
35:00The profit will increase
35:03If the price goes up at the beginning of this year
35:06The cost of buying will increase
35:09Orkan has continued to rise
35:12The cost of building has increased
35:15So the price itself is 16%
35:18Even though I bought it at a high price on the way
35:21It's a mess
35:24This is what happens when the recent stock price goes down
35:27So in the future
35:30If the stock price continues
35:33It may temporarily become an evaluation zone
35:36I have to be prepared for that
35:39I think I have to be prepared
35:42But what if you think about it for a little longer
35:45You provided it further
35:48With the data provided by Mr. Itamura
35:51From January 1990 to March 2025
35:54If you invest 30,000 yen per month in global stocks for 35 years
35:57I calculated how much the assets increased
36:00The total amount invested was 12.69 million yen
36:03The assets were 87.31 million yen
36:06There was a return of 6.88 times the amount invested
36:09And let's take a look at the other one
36:12Even if the stock falls
36:15I wonder if it's okay to continue investing
36:18I think there are people who are lost
36:21Just before the Lehman shock in September 2008
36:24I started investing in global stocks
36:27I haven't stopped investing since Lehman shock
36:30In four and a half years
36:33The assets have increased by about 40%
36:36What can you say from these two graphs?
36:39It is said that if you invest in the whole world for a long time
36:42It will increase
36:45I think it's important to know the data
36:48I think it's important to know the data
36:51I think it's important to know the data
36:54So in case your heart breaks in the future
36:57I want you to take a screenshot of this graph
37:00I want you to take a screenshot of this graph
37:03If you get tired, please take a look at this
37:06In the early days of investment investing
37:09The situation was bad compared to the investment
37:12It may be a minus for a while, but it will be rewarded in the long run
37:15This is this graph
37:18Even if you say Lehman shock once every 100 years
37:21In fact, the world stock of Enbase returned to its original position in four and a half years
37:24In fact, the world stock of Enbase returned to its original position in four and a half years
37:27So it doesn't mean that the decline will continue forever
37:30Even though the stock price has only returned to its original position
37:33Even though the stock price has only returned to its original position
37:36The stock price has increased by about 40%
37:39Mr. Hamura, this is very interesting
37:42Certainly, the stock price when you started
37:45If you look at this Lehman, the stock price hasn't changed
37:48It's almost the same
37:51Despite this, how do you think the stock price will increase this much?
37:54I bought it at the same price at a low price
37:57I bought it at the same price at a low price at a low price
38:00At the beginning, when the stock price went down
38:03I bought it at a cheap price and the cost went down
38:06When the stock price itself returns, the profit will increase
38:09When it's cheap, if you buy it at the same price
38:12The profit will increase
38:15Even if the stock price goes down at the same price
38:18There are many things that I bought at a low price
38:21Is that what you mean?
38:24So, like the two people mentioned earlier
38:27If the risk continues to be high
38:30I'd rather keep buying at a low price
38:33Mr. Hiroki, what do you think of Mr. Tamura's explanation so far?
38:36That's exactly right
38:39The point is to keep buying at a low price
38:42Humans are weak
38:45So, when the stock price goes down
38:48Humans become weak
38:51It's not the first topic of today, but it's about whether to quit or withdraw
38:54That's why it's important to keep buying at a low price
38:57It's decided by the system
39:00Then, even if you don't say anything
39:03You can buy a lot when the stock price goes down
39:06If you keep buying at a low price
39:09You won't be able to buy a lot of stocks
39:12So, there will be an automatic reversal
39:15As a result, it will be a good performance
39:18So, you don't have to be in a hurry
39:21You don't have to look too much
39:24That's right
39:27Mr. Kobayashi, what do you think?
39:30It's almost the same opinion
39:33I think it's more important to say that it's a different feeling
39:36Different feeling
39:39Of course, the living expenses for several years
39:42I'm doing it with a different feeling
39:45However, it means that the surplus funds will be accumulated in the future
39:48Regarding the accumulation
39:51It has nothing to do with the market price
39:54I'm going to leave it alone
39:57I think that kind of attitude is better for mental stability
40:00In addition, Mr. Tamura
40:03How should I think about it?
40:06I provided this kind of material
40:09This is a little difficult
40:12On the left side
40:15It's a one-shot investment
40:18It's not just a pile
40:21For example, S&P
40:24Orkan is fine
40:27I think it's an investment in individual eyes
40:30About this
40:33What will happen to red in 10 years?
40:36What will happen to blue in 20 years?
40:39It's a little difficult
40:42As for the axis
40:45The more to the right, the higher the ratio
40:48This is PER
40:51How many times is the stock price added to the profit per share?
40:54In other words, the more to the right, the higher the ratio
40:57The more to the left
41:00If you buy something that is judged to be cheap
41:03It's a one-shot investment
41:06Could you expand it again?
41:09If you buy a high-yield item
41:12If you think about it in 10 years
41:15If you go vertically, there are cases where it becomes negative
41:18In other words, Mr. Tamura
41:21If you are an investor
41:24In 10 years
41:27If you are thinking about breaking down in 10 years
41:30This PER is high
41:33If you are investing in a high-yield item
41:36There is also a minus
41:39Other than that, it's a plus
41:42I think it's a graph like that
41:45Rather than a high-yield item
41:48How do you do this?
41:51From 1985
41:54From January
41:5710 years from February
42:00By shifting by month
42:03I'm plotting around 400 or 500
42:06Fidelity
42:09Mr. Shigemi
42:12I did a little calculation
42:15If you buy at a high price
42:1810 years later, the return is bad
42:21Now S&P has dropped a lot
42:24Even if it has dropped a lot, PER is a little over 20 times
42:27This is still quite expensive in history
42:30Even if it's cheap, middle-aged people
42:33If you have money in your hand
42:36For example, in the growth investment framework
42:39There are people who buy once a year
42:42Now that S&P has dropped
42:45Even if you buy it
42:48Even after 10 years
42:51There is a possibility that it will be around minus
42:54On the contrary, 20 years
42:57There is not much to break down
43:00If you do it with such a long-term stance
43:03Because it is almost parallel
43:06It means that you can get a return
43:09Although the higher the PER, the lower the return
43:12If it's a long-term
43:15Even if you buy at a high price
43:18If it's a long-term
43:21You can get a good return
43:24Think about how long your operation period is
43:27I think it should be judged
43:30For example, in the late 50s or 60s
43:33When it comes to pension life
43:36It will be 10 years
43:39In the case of such a person
43:42Concentrating on something with a high PER
43:45There is a high risk
43:48Rather than concentrating only on US stocks
43:51With high PER
43:54For example, Japanese REITs in Wariyasuna
43:57Or Japanese used stocks
44:00In other words
44:03Distribute it to things other than US stocks
44:06Or in the whole asset
44:09For example, if it is about half a deposit
44:12In other words
44:15Maybe a few years
44:18I think it's important to distribute it so that it can go down by 50% or so
44:21I think it's important to distribute it so that it can go down by 50% or so
44:24I think it's important to distribute it so that it can go down by 50% or so
44:27Let's look at the right side
44:30About PER
44:33I think you don't have to worry about it
44:36At any time
44:39If it's 20 years later
44:42It's a situation where there is no minus
44:45SP and ORCAN
44:48Let's take a look at the current PER situation
44:51Let's take a look at the current PER situation
44:54This is the left side
44:57This is the material provided by Mr. Hiroo
45:21As for topics, as for Japanese stocks
45:24It's in a very mild range
45:27SP and
45:30In the middle is the world stock
45:33It's ORCAN
45:36This is at a fairly high level in history
45:39Looking at this
45:42As Mr. Tamura said
45:45SP and ORCAN
45:48I think it's a bit of a risk to focus on this
45:51Mr. Hiroo
45:54When you think about it in a balanced way
45:57Japanese stocks
46:00Do you want to put one in your brother?
46:03Of course
46:06As Mr. Tamura said
46:09It's a matter of course
46:12Even if you buy it at a high price
46:15It's not profitable
46:18In a sense, Japanese stocks are now
46:21It's not bad or bad
46:24I think it's in the right evaluation position
46:27I think it's good to distribute it
46:30One of them, Mr. Hirooki
46:33I think it's better to look at the answer
46:36It's very easy to understand
46:39I can see the return line
46:42I think it will be a very good investment target
46:45I think it will be a very good investment target
46:48Even among the Japanese stocks
46:51The return on investment is 6% or 5%
46:54It's on the shelf
46:57ROE is also high
47:00There are quite a few companies with good performance
47:03I think it would be good to consider such things as an investment target
47:06I think it would be good to consider such things as an investment target
47:10The famous products introduced in today's program are not recommended
47:13The famous products introduced in today's program are not recommended
47:16Please take responsibility for your investment
47:19That's all for the special
47:39Here is the market information
48:09Here is the market information
48:12Here is the market information
48:15Here is the market information
48:18Here is the market information
48:21Here is the market information
48:24Here is the market information
48:27Here is the market information
48:30Here is the market information
48:33Here is the market information
48:37Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
48:40Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
48:43Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
48:46Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
48:49Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
48:52Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
48:55Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
48:58Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:01Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:04Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:07Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:10Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:13Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:16Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:19Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:22Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:25Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen
49:28Mr. Hiroki, 37,000 yen