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00:00Major League Baseball on our mind today. And by the way, a lot of afternoon action,
00:03which you love to see. Nobody hates afternoon Major League Baseball. It helps you get through
00:06your day. It's a hump day week, or hump day during the week. You're like, you know what?
00:10Let me get through Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend that you go. So we love
00:14Major League Baseball. We love to handicap it. And it starts in the Bronx tonight, Joe. And
00:18that's another game between the San Diego Padres and the New York Yankees. Dylan Cease on the
00:23mound versus the lefty Max Fried. This game will start at 7.05 tonight. And a favorite at minus 178
00:28at the FanDuel Sportsbook at the opening number. You see that graphic at minus 174. It's bounced
00:33back to minus 178 live, a total with eight across the board. We got a lot of runs from
00:38one direction yesterday in the Bronx. Are we going to see that again today? Your thoughts
00:43on the Padres and the Yankees today? Well, I mean, I don't believe the Yankees have lost
00:48a Max Fried start yet, if I'm not mistaken there, right? So it's, listen, there's a level
00:56of confidence. That was a good win last night. They had a big inning there. Wells with the
01:01grand slam is what did it in the seventh inning there. But they got hits from other guys,
01:07Ballinger and Volpe. And that's good because hitting is contagious. Dylan Cease usually starts
01:13the season slow, Donnie. And this is no exception this year. So I tend to lean towards Max Fried
01:22here. Once again, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. I would probably look, just forget about the
01:28bullpens, Donnie. Let's just take the first five. Who, what's the, are we going to get more runs or
01:34less runs? Cause it feels like a pitcher's duel early in this one. So I'd look at the first five
01:39under here at four runs. Yeah. Take a look at Max Fried on the season here, Joe 44 and two thirds
01:44innings pitch, a 1.01 ERA and a very manageable XFIP of 3.74. Then you take a look at Dylan Cease,
01:51who's a little bit backwards, right? You take a look at his 33 and two thirds innings pitch,
01:55a 5.61 ERA, which is terrible, but his expected ERA out of that is only a 4.23, which drops to a 4.05
02:01on his XFIP number. So I'm, I'm with you on that. I don't think the matchups are all that great on
02:06both sides here. It's always hard to take it under in Yankee stadium, 68, 69 degrees at first pitch,
02:11light wind blowing out the center field, but I'm with you. If there's any way I'm betting in this
02:14game, it's probably going to be to the under. Do I think the Yankees win? Yes. But also the
02:18Yankees aren't plus 100 today. Like you're laying close to a minus 180 or so price on that team.
02:23We'll see if they can bounce back in that certain direction, but I'm going to agreement with you
02:26on that side of it here. If we take a look at another game today earlier at a 220 start,
02:30which means we're going to be in the windy city of Chicago. And anytime we lead with Donnie,
02:35what's the total it's seven, you know, exactly the direction that wind is blowing and it's in today.
02:40It's Robbie Ray. It's Brown here for the Chicago Cubs minus one 42 at the opening number minus
02:46one 46 right now. As you see an elevation there, we see that card there at minus one 36. It's on the
02:51move, but in a Cubs direction at seven, Robbie Ray versus Brown. What do we got today for you?
02:57Well, the giant, same thing like Yankees would free the giants have won all seven of Robbie Ray
03:03starts this season. And they're going to hope that they can get that role in here as well,
03:08as they split the first two games of this series and ended up erupting in, in extra innings
03:15yesterday. And when you look, look at this 23 and 14, 22 and these two teams are, have been playing
03:22now. Can you make the argument? Both are playing above their head while both are winning games.
03:28And it looks like the Cubs are doing it more offensively while the giants are doing it with
03:34starting pitching and bullpen. And they have been dominant here. And I like, again, if it ain't
03:39broke, don't fix it. If I got the pitching edge with the giants, I'm going to ride that, especially
03:45early in this game here in the first five, I'm going to back the giants to have the lead heading
03:50into the sixth. Yeah. I've never been a big fan of Robbie Ray and particularly to start the year,
03:54his exit numbers were really out of control. But when you take a look now 38 and a third innings
03:58pitched a manageable ERA down to 3.05 and an exit number of 4.18, those numbers were much,
04:04much higher just a few weeks previous here. We'll see what happens there. And again,
04:07Ben Brown on the mound for the Cubs wind blowing in. We'll see how many runs we can actually get.
04:11Let's head back out to the desert for a 340 start afternoon baseball for the New York Mets.
04:16Look at the bounce back here against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kodai Senga on the mound against
04:20Merrill Kelly. This line opened up as a slight favorite here, minus 124, minus 125 as a favorite
04:25New York. Still sits there at that minus 125 or so range, a nine across the board. I like the under
04:31yesterday that came in Senga and Kelly on the mound here afternoon style out for the D-backs.
04:36And we just kind of saw this, didn't we? Like a week ago, like the Arizona ended up winning the
04:41series there at Citi Field. Now they have an opportunity to do the same thing here. And I
04:47like Merrill Kelly at home in this spot here. I do think there, I believe they're opening the roof
04:55for this one, Donnie. And if that's the case, I would tend to lean towards the over. If not,
05:01I still think we're going to get a bit of a pitcher's battle early in this one. So I'd,
05:06I'd look towards Arizona having to lead early and often in this one.
05:11Roof information from May 7th. It will be closed, Joe and Airy. Boo! Let the heat in there.
05:18More Major League Baseball next.
05:20Instead of Paul Skeen's, it's Hunter Green day on the mound today. How do you like that? The
05:26Cincinnati Reds taking on the athletics out there in Sacramento, a seven o'clock start time tonight.
05:30And if you look at these numbers, Joe and Airy, roughly a pick them across the board. And also,
05:35excuse me, Atlanta, let's say the A's at that point, but I wish we were out there with the A's
05:38in Sacramento for this game, get some runs. But we are down in Atlanta, seven o'clock start tonight,
05:42eight to seven and a half, depending on where you're shopping at right now. It's it for the
05:46FanDuel Sportsbook at eight runs here and roughly a pick them. I like my guy, Hunter Green. You take
05:51a look at him on the season so far, Joe, 42 and two thirds innings pitched. How about a 2.53 ERA and
05:55a 3.10 XFIP number? I'm going Reds today. I'm painting the town red, Joe.
06:01Yeah, well, they're going to need their ace at this point in order to stop a four game losing streak,
06:07which, you know, once again, the bats go MIA for this team with the Reds. It's very,
06:12they are so Jekyll and Hyde this season. It's crazy. They can go some games where they they'll
06:19put up double digit runs and then they go two or three games where they can't hit water if they
06:23fell out of a boat. So couldn't do it last night. And I believe Holmes is going for Atlanta and
06:30quietly, you know, as a guy that they have to throw in there as a fourth or fifth starter because
06:36of injuries, he's actually done a great job for them and has not been has not been terrible like
06:44you would have thought. So yes, Hunter Green to me has to win this game. I expect him to be pretty
06:50good. But the bullpens get involved here. I don't trust Cincinnati. I think Atlanta ends up winning
06:56this game. And at that price, why not? It's worth a shot here with the home team.
07:02See if they can bust out the bats today. Now we can get to the good times here with the A's in
07:07Sacramento. The only problem is you see the total across the board at the FanDuel Sportsbook. It's
07:12nine. You like to see that heavy favorite for Seattle. Hoglin's going to be on the mound who
07:16has six innings pitch on the season, a 150 ERA to 1.93 XFIP number. Hard to extrapolate what those
07:22numbers will be over the length of the season, but a good start nonetheless. But you're going up against
07:26Brian Wu, 38 and a third innings pitch here for Seattle, a 2.58 ERA and a 350 XFIP,
07:32which if you're looking on the card between 30 pitchers, Brian Wu is number four on the card
07:36today. Gunnar Hoglin is number one, but again, only six innings pitched. Could we have a pitching
07:41duel in Sacramento in the afternoon, Joe? Well, it's interesting because the Mariners lineup,
07:47I believe, averaging, what, almost six runs a game on the road. I mean, they've been raking on the
07:55row. Brian Wu's been outstanding. What else can you say? I mean, when Logan Gilbert went down,
08:01he's kind of become the ace of that staff, but they're playing in a ballpark that has seen the
08:08over hit in 10 of the 16 games that have been played there. So it's kind of hard to hope for
08:13pitching battle. And Hoglin looked apart, but he played the Marlins. Does that change in this
08:19ballpark here? I'd be looking towards the over in this one as both bullpens have gotten work the last
08:27couple of days as well. It's hard, man. It's hard to take unders. It really is hard to take
08:31unders in Sacramento, which is a great thing here. So again, look at the two ballparks here that were
08:35out of like Tampa Bay. So refreshing to see runs in Tampa now. So refreshing to see runs,
08:39which used to be in Oakland, which was terrible. Now we're in Sacramento. Fantastic stuff. Absolutely
08:44love to see it yesterday. If you're a Rangers fan, you love to see Eovaldi return back to Boston,
08:48have a great performance. Can you get back to back great performances? We'll find out.
08:52A 645 start tonight between the Rangers and the Red Sox. It's Molly versus Hawk. Opening number,
08:57minus 136. That's down now. As you see the graphic at minus 126. A total though, we're expecting runs
09:03tonight, Joe. Nine and a half. Here's the issue that you might have. You look at Molly and say,
09:08okay, 1.19 ERA sensational to 37 and two thirds innings pitch and a manageable XFIP number. Well,
09:14take a look then at Tanner Houck, who's not far behind with XFIP numbers, but he's got a 6.38 ERA,
09:20but that doesn't compare his expected ERA 4.58 and an XFIP number of 3.95. Will the real Tanner Houck
09:28please stand up? Will it be today? They're a favorite, but the money looks like it's starting
09:32to come in on Texas. Well, like, you know, we mentioned earlier, we loved Eovaldi. We loved
09:38Texas in the game last night because I do think they are, the bats are waking up for Texas in this
09:46spot here. Boston is kind of reeling here. Why? Well, their bullpen is a hot mess as well there,
09:52Donnie. Not great, but you got to dive into the numbers with Houck because he had one start against
09:59the Tampa Bay Rays where he gave up 12 runs, which has thrown everything out of whack there, but he has
10:06been very good at Fenway 2.13 ERA at home this year. If you throw that one outing against the Rays
10:14away and his numbers are every bit as good as Tyler Miley's now, is that sustainable?
10:19I don't think he's actually given up a home run through seven starts, Tyler Miley. Is that going
10:25to change today? Look at that total, nine and a half. It's a first five under for me. I think this
10:30is an early pitchers battle here. Yeah. Let me see what we got here because that nine and a half,
10:35let me just get a peek at these weather conditions. He's 16, 70 degrees at first pitch, wind blowing
10:39dead out to center field, about eight to nine miles per hour. So that could make a difference
10:43tonight. Get the ball in the air in Fenway, leave the ball in the air with some home runs. That's
10:47what we want to see. Home runs were good last night to the Philadelphia Phillies. They're going to take
10:51on Tampa once again tonight in game number two of that set on the mound today. Christopher Sanchez,
10:55the left-handed pitcher going up against Shane Boz, the right-handed pitcher for the Rays.
10:597.05 start. The Phillies are the favorite. Open up as a minus 134 favorite. As you see that graphic,
11:04it's down slightly, Joe, to minus 126. A total on the board here that we're listing at is at
11:09eight and a half. The opening number still sits at eight and a half. Some outlets have actually
11:13moved to eight. Christopher Sanchez on the card today out of 30 pitchers with XFIP numbers. And
11:18if you remove Gunnar Hoglund, the only six innings pitched, Christopher Sanchez, the best on the board
11:22at a 2.93. Shane Boz isn't a bad pitcher either. ERA manageable 3.86, but a 3.95 XFIP number is decent
11:30here. Are we looking for more of the same for the Philadelphia Phillies in a win? I actually thought
11:34yesterday, Joe, that game would stay under the total. He had a very good start out of Zach Wheeler in that
11:38game, but the Phillies bats really woke up in that small ballpark with some of that heat and humidity.
11:43And he's been actually really good. He's averaging what, nine strikeouts. He's only given up,
11:49he only averages one home run allowed per nine innings, this being Shane Bass, especially in that
11:54little league ballpark. But correct me if I'm wrong here, Donnie. Christopher Sanchez is a guy we want
12:01to put our money on when he pitches in Philadelphia. But if I'm not mistaken, when he gets on the road,
12:06he's a hot mess here. So that's the problem that I have backing Philadelphia in this spot. Plus the
12:14Tampa bullpen advantage there for them. They have been absolutely outstanding for them. But I kind
12:20of agree with the move to the under. If you get Christopher Sanchez, the home version for the
12:26Phillies, I don't think there's going to be a ton of runs in this game. Yeah, we'll see what happens.
12:31I thought it was under yesterday. It didn't turn out to be. But if I'm leaning again towards Zani,
12:34which way would you go higher or lower in this game? Certainly, I would go under the total as
12:38well. We'll see if that works out. One o'clock start this afternoon from Milwaukee. Don't have
12:42to worry about any weather conditions again, because Milwaukee is a dome. Valdez versus Priester.
12:46Priester is one of the guys that I do like to fade. That total opened up at eight, but actually
12:49dropped the seven and a half. The side as a favorite at minus 136 at the opening number. And you see on
12:54the graphic on your TV, slightly lower at minus 134. There is a pitching mismatch here because
12:59Priester's got 23 and a third innings pitch on the season, Joe. 5.8 ERA, 5.05 XFIP number. And if
13:06we roll down to Frambois Valdez, number six on the card today, through 41 innings pitch on the season
13:11and a very manageable 3.63 XFIP number. For me, it's Houston or nobody in this game.
13:18Yeah, it's kind of hard because Houston has not been good, especially on the road. And they have
13:25never played well, by the way. I don't think they have won a series in Milwaukee in a very,
13:31very long time. And Milwaukee scored four runs in the first inning last night. And that was all they
13:37needed because they didn't score a run for the rest of the game. And Houston could not tie it up
13:43there late. So it feels like seven and a half is the right number for Amber or nobody, right?
13:50Well, it's an under or nothing for me in this game as well.
13:55Now, will you be making a trip over to Lone Depot Park to be checking out Knack versus our guy
13:59on the mound today as a monster favorite for the Dodgers looking for a bounce back today, Joe
14:05monstrous. Yeah, they're looking for a bounce back here. And can we go alternate line and lay three
14:12runs? Is that a plus money? Because that's what I think I would do here. I think the Dodgers
14:17roll in this one here against Miami. Now, can you go to like McDonald's in South Florida,
14:23like buy a Big Mac and get two free tickets to the Marlins? Like they do those giveaways these
14:26days down there. They just like, you know what? The ballpark is more aesthetically pleasing,
14:30Joe, when nobody shows up and you can get the true ambiance of that beautiful building at this
14:35point. We'll find out.