🎓 World-renowned realist and political scientist Prof. John Mearsheimer tackles one of the most pressing questions of our time:
❓ Are Russia and China truly existential threats to the United States, or is Washington fueling unnecessary confrontation?
🧠 With decades of expertise, Mearsheimer breaks down the strategic interests, power plays, and policy failures shaping today’s global order.
📉 Is the U.S. pushing both rivals closer together — and at what cost?
💥 A brutally honest, thought-provoking conversation you won’t hear in mainstream media.
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments — is it time to rethink U.S. grand strategy?
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❓ Are Russia and China truly existential threats to the United States, or is Washington fueling unnecessary confrontation?
🧠 With decades of expertise, Mearsheimer breaks down the strategic interests, power plays, and policy failures shaping today’s global order.
📉 Is the U.S. pushing both rivals closer together — and at what cost?
💥 A brutally honest, thought-provoking conversation you won’t hear in mainstream media.
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments — is it time to rethink U.S. grand strategy?
🔔 Subscribe for more hard-hitting geopolitical insight.
#JohnMearsheimer #USForeignPolicy #RussiaChina #Geopolitics #USvsChina #USvsRussia #InternationalRelations #RealismInPolitics #GlobalStrategy #PowerPolitics #ChinaThreat #RussiaThreat #GreatPowerCompetition #USNationalSecurity #ForeignPolicyDebate #MearsheimerAnalysis #PoliticalRealism #AsiaPivot #ColdWar2 #TruthUnfiltered
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NewsTranscript
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02:13The President has also surrounded
02:15himself with
02:17America firsters
02:19The President is
02:22through his closest friend
02:24Steve Witkoff negotiating directly
02:26with President
02:28Putin. Is this any time
02:30to enter into a mineral deal
02:32with Ukraine which requires
02:34some security assurances
02:35by the United States?
02:37Well there are no security
02:39assurances. We have
02:41explicitly refused to give
02:43a security guarantee
02:44and I think the mineral deal
02:46is not a good deal for
02:49Ukraine and I understand the
02:51Ukrainians are trying to sort of
02:52trap us
02:53into some sort of loose security
02:56guarantee but that's not going to
02:58happen.
02:59The more important point
03:01apropos your comments about the
03:03splits within the administration
03:04administration is that President
03:06Trump can't seem to make up his
03:08mind as to whether he's going to
03:10side with the Hawks or whether he's
03:13going to side with the people who
03:15want to make major concessions to
03:17the Russians and get a deal.
03:20He goes back and forth and he's
03:22unwilling to go one way or the
03:24other and the end result is he's not
03:27going to get a deal and this is just
03:28going to go on and on.
03:30What kind of a message does this
03:31send to the Kremlin and in a
03:33minute I'll play you some nonsense
03:35from General Kellogg and ask you
03:37the same thing but before we get
03:39to the general, Trump's mercurial
03:43attitude, he's a hawk, he's a
03:46dove, he's with Zelensky, he's with
03:48Putin, he meets Zelensky in St.
03:50Peter's Basilica of all places and
03:52he says he's reasonable and three
03:53days later in an interview with
03:55Terry Moran he goes Putin's easier
03:57to deal with than Zelensky.
03:59Is he credible, Trump?
04:03No, it's as simple as that.
04:05Virtually every leader around the
04:07world, including Aaron Alex,
04:10understand that you're dealing with a
04:13loose cannon.
04:14One day he says something and then the
04:17next day he says the opposite and you
04:20can never be sure exactly where he
04:22stands.
04:23What this tells you is that the
04:24Russians can't trust him in any
04:26meaningful way and they have to make
04:29sure that on the battlefield
04:30they secure an arrangement that
04:35protects him against the vagaries of
04:38President Trump.
04:39Here's what the president's special
04:42envoy to Ukraine said yesterday on
04:46Fox.
04:47This is General Kellogg.
04:50You tell me if this makes any sense.
04:52Chris?
04:53I was out of London last week where we
04:55sat down with the Ukrainian team with
04:56the Europeans as well.
04:58And we had 22 concrete terms that
05:01they've agreed to.
05:02What they want to at the very first
05:04and what they have is a very
05:06comprehensive and permanent ceasefire
05:08that leads to a peace treaty.
05:10When I mean comprehensive sea, air, land,
05:12infrastructure for at least 30 days.
05:14Why is 30 days important?
05:16Because it can build to a permanent
05:17peace initiative.
05:19And the reason why 30 days is
05:21important, it stops the killing.
05:22That's what President Trump wants to
05:24do.
05:24The Russians are not going to go for that.
05:28This guy's living in cloud cuckoo land.
05:31I mean, I don't know what else to say.
05:33The deal that he was pushing along with
05:35the Europeans and the Ukrainians
05:37is guaranteed to go nowhere.
05:40It's just not a
05:42real
05:42possible proposal.
05:44And in fact, when
05:46Whitcoff went to Moscow
05:48last Friday to meet
05:50with Putin, he took
05:52a different deal.
05:53He did not take that deal
05:55because Whitcoff
05:56fully understands and other people
05:58in the Trump administration
06:00fully understand that the deal
06:02that Kellogg is pushing
06:03is foolish in the extreme.
06:06It's a new order.
06:08We've been playing this throughout the day,
06:10but you've got to hear it.
06:11Cut number six.
06:12If you want a ceasefire
06:16just to continue
06:17supply arms to Ukraine,
06:19so what is your purpose?
06:20You know what
06:21Kaya Kalas and
06:22what's his name,
06:23Mark Rutte,
06:25said about the
06:26ceasefire?
06:27The NATO Secretary
06:28General and the European Union.
06:29They bluntly stated
06:32that they can support
06:33only the deal
06:34which at the end of the day
06:36will make Ukraine stronger,
06:38would make Ukraine a victor.
06:41So if this is the purpose
06:42of the ceasefire,
06:43I don't think this is what
06:44President Trump wants.
06:46This is what Europeans,
06:47together with Zelensky,
06:48want to make out
06:50of President Trump's initiative.
06:51How can
06:53Marco Rubio,
06:57Donald Trump,
06:58and Keith Kellogg
07:00not understand that?
07:03You got me.
07:04I don't get it.
07:06I mean,
07:06Witkoff has had
07:07long conversations
07:09with Putin
07:11and with key Russian
07:12players,
07:14and Witkoff
07:15surely has to understand
07:17what the Russian
07:18demands are
07:19and how committed
07:21the Russians are
07:22to having those
07:23demands accepted.
07:24And I'm sure
07:25that Witkoff
07:26has conveyed this
07:27to Trump and others,
07:28but they just don't
07:29seem to buy into it
07:31and they continue
07:31to embrace,
07:33at least to some extent,
07:34the arguments
07:35that people like Kellogg
07:36are putting forward.
07:38And I think
07:39at some point
07:40Trump simply has
07:41to make a decision
07:42which way he's going to go.
07:43And he's been unable
07:45to do that.
07:45And the end result
07:46is he's, you know,
07:47stuck in neutral.
07:49Are the Europeans
07:52prepared
07:52to replace
07:54the United States
07:56if Trump turns off,
07:58whether in a fit
08:00of anger
08:00or after deliberation,
08:03the spigot
08:04of supplies
08:04to Kiev,
08:06military supplies?
08:07they can't make up
08:10for what we now
08:12provide if it goes away.
08:14They just simply
08:15can't do that.
08:17And you want to remember
08:18that the Ukrainians
08:20have been losing
08:20on the battlefield
08:21with full-fledged support
08:24from Joe Biden
08:25and from the Europeans.
08:27And again,
08:27the Ukrainians
08:29were still losing.
08:30So if you take
08:31the Americans away
08:32and you're left
08:33with just the Europeans,
08:34even if they upped
08:35the ante a bit,
08:37it still is not
08:38going to rectify
08:39the problem.
08:41The Ukrainians
08:41are losing.
08:42The balance of power
08:43is shifting against them.
08:45And that, of course,
08:45is why they should
08:46cut a deal now
08:47before they lose
08:48more territory
08:49and more Ukrainians die.
08:50But the Europeans
08:52refuse to accept
08:53that logic,
08:55as do the Keith Kellogg's
08:57of the administration.
08:58Here is a portion
09:01of a radio interview
09:02with General Sir Richard Sheriff,
09:07S-H-I-R-R-E-F-F,
09:10the former deputy
09:11Supreme Allied Commander
09:13and obviously British.
09:15There are two points
09:16to this as I see them.
09:18One is his view
09:21that the Europeans
09:23can form a new NATO
09:24without the United States.
09:26You can opine on that
09:27after you hear him.
09:28The other is
09:29that Trump,
09:31Hegseth,
09:32and Vance
09:32are not credible.
09:36Chris,
09:37cut number 12.
09:38How you Europeanize
09:40a NATO
09:41in which America
09:42cannot be trusted
09:43as an ally
09:44and Europe
09:45and Canada
09:45have got to go it alone.
09:47And is that a kind
09:48of European force
09:49of some description?
09:50Well, it would be
09:51it would be European,
09:53the nations
09:54the nations
09:54of Europe
09:55plus Canada
09:56coming together
09:58to build
09:59a new form
10:01of NATO alliance
10:02to which they
10:03would contribute
10:04troops,
10:05ships,
10:05planes,
10:06and all the other stuff.
10:08And that is
10:09entirely possible.
10:10But again,
10:11it needs
10:11the political
10:12will
10:13and the recognition
10:14that after everything
10:16that Trump,
10:17Hegseth,
10:17Vance have said,
10:18America is just
10:21not in the room.
10:23What are your thoughts
10:24about the second part?
10:26What Trump,
10:27Hegseth,
10:28and Vance have said,
10:29America is not
10:30in the room.
10:31Well, I think
10:31it's quite clear
10:32that President Trump
10:34and certainly
10:35Vice President Vance
10:37have contempt
10:38for the Europeans
10:39and they want
10:40to greatly reduce
10:42our footprint
10:43in Europe,
10:45both our military footprint
10:46and our political footprint.
10:48and they want
10:48the Europeans
10:49to provide
10:50for their own security,
10:51which of course
10:52gets to the first part
10:53of the General's discussion,
10:56which is where
10:56he is talking
10:57about the Europeans
10:58themselves
10:59coming together
11:00and creating
11:01a NATO of their own
11:03without the United States.
11:05That's what he's
11:06talking about
11:06and that's because
11:07he understands,
11:08I think quite correctly,
11:09that the United States
11:11would like to
11:12wash its hands
11:13of its leadership
11:14position in Europe
11:16and then the
11:16$64,000 question
11:18is whether
11:19they can do that.
11:22Are the Europeans
11:23genuinely
11:25in their heart
11:27of hearts
11:27expecting an invasion
11:29from Vladimir Putin
11:30or is this
11:31some sort of
11:32a stunt
11:33to raise taxes
11:34and spend money
11:35with the military
11:36industrial complex
11:37and all that?
11:38my sense is
11:40and I base this
11:42on my experience
11:44watching leaders
11:45spin myths
11:47over the years
11:48that in the beginning
11:49people understand
11:50that what they're saying
11:51is not true
11:52and it's a myth
11:54or it's threat inflation
11:56that's designed
11:57to mobilize
11:58public support.
11:59But then as time
12:00goes by
12:01those same people
12:02and their successors
12:04come to believe
12:05the myths
12:06where they can't
12:07come to believe
12:08the threat inflation
12:09to represent
12:10a real threat
12:11and I think
12:12at first
12:13most people
12:14understood
12:14that the Russians
12:15were not a threat
12:16to Western Europe
12:17but it's been repeated
12:20that argument
12:21has been repeated
12:21so many times now
12:23that I think
12:24a lot of Europeans
12:25actually do believe that
12:26I think they're scared
12:27I think they're wrong
12:29I don't think
12:30there's any danger
12:31of Russia invading
12:32Eastern Europe
12:33much less
12:34Western Europe
12:35I think the Russians
12:36have their hands full
12:37in Eastern Ukraine
12:39they haven't even tried
12:40to conquer
12:40all of Ukraine
12:41they've had a devil
12:42of a time
12:43conquering the Eastern
12:44one-fifth of Ukraine
12:45the idea that
12:46this is the Wehrmacht
12:47poised to head
12:48to the beaches
12:49at Dunkirk
12:50it's just not
12:51a serious argument
12:52but again
12:53many Europeans
12:54now believe that
12:55Here's a retired
12:58Australian general
13:00this is off the wall
13:02but I have to play
13:03for you Chris
13:04cut number 10
13:05In many respects
13:06we're already there
13:07I mean
13:08I think historians
13:09in 100 years
13:10will look back
13:10and go
13:11the Third World War
13:12started in February
13:132022
13:13you know
13:15there are many elements
13:16that are still
13:17a phony war
13:18I mean
13:18we saw that
13:19at the beginning
13:19of World War 2
13:20right
13:20that's what we're seeing
13:21in the Western Pacific
13:22you know
13:23the Middle East
13:24has been at war
13:25for some time
13:25it's going to be at war
13:26for a long time
13:27to come
13:27I think
13:28Russia has made
13:29it very clear
13:30that it has
13:31aggressive designs
13:32in the Baltics
13:33and in Scandinavia
13:34as well as against
13:35Poland and Ukraine
13:36so we're kind of
13:38already there
13:38but it's a mindset
13:39that we need to have
13:41and it's something
13:43that our Western politicians
13:44really have to
13:45contemplate hardly
13:46because they're going
13:47to have to have
13:48a different balance
13:49of domestic
13:50and foreign investment
13:51in their budgets
13:52you discerned
13:55a scintilla
13:56of evidence
13:57that Putin
13:58has designs
13:59on Poland
13:59and the Baltic states
14:01there is
14:02zero evidence
14:03to support
14:04that argument
14:05there
14:07is just
14:08no evidence
14:09that Putin
14:10is interested
14:11in taking
14:12all of Ukraine
14:13he has never
14:14said that
14:15much less
14:16that he's interested
14:17in conquering
14:18other countries
14:19in Eastern Europe
14:21he not only
14:23doesn't
14:24appear to have
14:25the intention
14:26to do that
14:27it's also that
14:28he doesn't have
14:29the capability
14:29as I was saying
14:30a few minutes ago
14:31this army
14:33that he has
14:33is not the second
14:34coming of the
14:35Wehrmacht
14:36this is not
14:38to deny
14:39by the way
14:40that you could
14:41not have a war
14:42in the future
14:43over the Baltic states
14:45it's not
14:46to deny
14:47that you couldn't
14:48have a war
14:49over the Arctic
14:50over the Baltic Sea
14:51over Moldova
14:52over the Black Sea
14:54over Belarus
14:55what you want
14:56to understand here
14:57and this is
14:57very very important
14:59to understand
14:59is that we have
15:00this conflict
15:01involving Ukraine
15:02and Russia
15:03that we are
15:04finding very
15:05difficult to
15:06shut down
15:07and I think
15:07what you'll end
15:08up with is
15:09a cold peace
15:10and superimposed
15:12on top of that
15:12cold peace
15:13are six potential
15:15flashpoints
15:16again the Arctic
15:17the Baltic Sea
15:18Kaliningrad
15:19Moldova
15:21Belarus
15:22and the Black Sea
15:23what is Moldova
15:25pardon
15:26what is Moldova
15:28what is the dispute
15:29over Moldova
15:30who's ever even
15:31heard of it
15:32yes for sure
15:34the Russians
15:35have heard of it
15:36and we've heard of it
15:37and of course
15:38we're trying
15:38to play around
15:39we in the West
15:40with the politics
15:42inside of Moldova
15:43in ways
15:44that the Russians
15:45don't like
15:46so there is a competition
15:47for political influence
15:49in Moldova
15:49and one can easily
15:51imagine things
15:52spinning out of control
15:53there
15:53you want to remember
15:54the Russians
15:54were involved
15:55in a war
15:55in Georgia
15:56in August 2008
15:58and you of course
15:59have this war
16:00in Ukraine
16:01there are a lot
16:03of flashpoints
16:04in Eastern Europe
16:06that are not
16:07directly related
16:08to the war
16:09between Russia
16:10and Ukraine
16:11and if you don't
16:13shut down
16:14the war
16:15between Russia
16:16and Ukraine
16:16in a meaningful way
16:19in other words
16:19if you just get
16:20a frozen peace
16:21right
16:22the potential
16:23for that conflict
16:25to heat up again
16:26is real
16:27but again
16:28on top of that
16:29you have these
16:30different conflicts
16:31in the places
16:31that I just mentioned
16:33where you could get
16:34a war
16:34all right
16:35before I ask you
16:37some questions
16:37about China
16:38you used
16:39an interesting phrase
16:40a few minutes ago
16:41I think it was
16:42a cold peace
16:45ending the Ukraine war
16:47is that the phrase
16:48you used
16:49the word cold
16:49was in it
16:50professor
16:51I'm not sure
16:52did I say cold peace
16:54frozen
16:54the word
16:55maybe frozen
16:56okay
16:56how do you
16:58how do you envision
16:59what will Ukraine
17:00look like
17:01when the war
17:02is over
17:03how do you envision
17:04it ending
17:04and what do you think
17:05the war will look like
17:06what do you think
17:08Ukraine will look like
17:09when the war is over
17:10well I think
17:11that Ukraine
17:12will definitely
17:13lose all of the
17:14four oblasts
17:15that the Russians
17:16demand
17:17and in fact
17:19have annexed
17:20and they will
17:20definitely lose
17:21Crimea
17:22the question is
17:23how much more
17:24Ukrainian territory
17:25will the Russians
17:26take
17:26there's all sorts
17:28of evidence
17:28that the Russians
17:29are committed
17:30to taking
17:31Odessa
17:32Kharkiv
17:34and a handful
17:34of other oblasts
17:36between them
17:37I think
17:37whether or not
17:39they take them
17:39as a function
17:40of what the
17:41military balance
17:42looks like
17:42moving forward
17:43and you want
17:44to remember
17:45what's going
17:45to happen here
17:46is that eventually
17:47all of that
17:48support
17:49that the Biden
17:50administration
17:51stuffed into
17:52the pipeline
17:52is going to
17:54go away
17:54and it's
17:55quite clear
17:56that Trump
17:57is not going
17:58to put more
17:58American weaponry
18:00and material
18:01and money
18:02in that pipeline
18:03so that means
18:05that the Ukrainians
18:06are going to be
18:06weakened on the
18:07battlefield
18:08and that's
18:09going to put
18:09the Russians
18:09in a position
18:10where it will
18:11be I think
18:12relatively easy
18:13for them to
18:14conquer more
18:15territory
18:15this is again
18:16why the Ukrainians
18:18have a vested
18:18interest in
18:19settling now
18:20but putting that
18:21aside
18:21they're not
18:22going to settle
18:23now
18:23and I think
18:24the Russians
18:25are primed
18:26certainly by the
18:27time the Biden
18:28wherewithal
18:29runs out
18:31the Russians
18:32are primed
18:33to take
18:33even more
18:34territory
18:35than they now
18:35control
18:36so I think
18:37what you will
18:38end up
18:38with is
18:39with the
18:40Russians
18:40controlling
18:41more than
18:41those
18:42four
18:42plus
18:43Crimea
18:43and what
18:44they will
18:45do
18:45is they
18:45will go
18:46to great
18:46lengths
18:46to make
18:47sure
18:47that
18:48Ukraine
18:48is a
18:48dysfunctional
18:49rump
18:50state
18:50they'll
18:51make
18:51sure
18:51that
18:51Ukraine
18:52that is
18:53left over
18:54once you
18:54get this
18:55frozen
18:55conflict
18:56will be
18:56very weak
18:57and they'll
18:58go to
18:58great lengths
18:58over time
18:59to interfere
19:00in the
19:00politics
19:01of that
19:02dysfunctional
19:03rump
19:03state
19:03to make
19:04sure
19:04that Ukraine
19:05remains
19:05weak
19:06because
19:06they don't
19:07want
19:07Ukraine
19:07to be
19:08a threat
19:08to Russia
19:08and they
19:09don't want
19:10Ukraine
19:10to be
19:10in a position
19:11to join
19:12either
19:12NATO
19:13or the
19:13EU
19:14so this
19:15is all
19:15going to
19:15end
19:15disastrously
19:16for Ukraine
19:17is China
19:19a threat
19:20to the
19:20national
19:20security
19:21of the
19:21United
19:22States
19:22well as
19:24you know
19:24I believe
19:25that it
19:25is in the
19:26American
19:26national
19:27interest
19:27to make
19:27sure
19:28that China
19:28does not
19:29dominate
19:30East
19:30Asia
19:31the way
19:31the United
19:32States
19:32dominates
19:33the
19:33Western
19:34hemisphere
19:34I do
19:35believe
19:35that China
19:36is not
19:37a status quo
19:38power
19:38they are
19:38explicit
19:39about that
19:40and if
19:40you look
19:41at their
19:41ambitions
19:42they want
19:42to dominate
19:43East Asia
19:44if I were
19:45in Beijing
19:45if I were
19:46the national
19:46security
19:47advisor to
19:48Xi Jinping
19:48I would
19:49tell him
19:50that we
19:50should try
19:51to dominate
19:51Asia
19:52I would
19:52tell him
19:53we should
19:53try to
19:53push the
19:54Americans
19:54out
19:54beyond the
19:55first island
19:56chain
19:56and then
19:57we should
19:57try to
19:57push them
19:58out beyond
19:58the second
19:58island
19:59chain
19:59I believe
20:00as an
20:00American
20:01in the
20:01Monroe
20:01Doctrine
20:02well
20:02if I
20:03believe
20:03in the
20:04Monroe
20:04Doctrine
20:04as an
20:05American
20:05if I
20:06were a
20:06Chinese
20:06national
20:07security
20:07advisor
20:08why
20:08wouldn't
20:09I
20:09want
20:09my
20:09own
20:09version
20:10of
20:10the
20:10Monroe
20:10Doctrine
20:11why
20:11wouldn't
20:12I
20:12want
20:12to
20:12push
20:13the
20:13Americans
20:13out
20:13of
20:14East
20:14Asia
20:14why
20:15do
20:15I
20:15want
20:15the
20:15Americans
20:16in
20:16my
20:16face
20:17and
20:17the
20:17answer
20:17is
20:18I
20:18don't
20:18but
20:18of course
20:19from
20:19an
20:19American
20:20perspective
20:20the
20:21thought
20:21of China
20:22dominating
20:22East
20:23Asia
20:23is
20:24unacceptable
20:24and
20:25that's
20:26the
20:26reason
20:26that
20:26the
20:26United
20:27States
20:27is
20:28bent
20:28on
20:28containing
20:29China
20:29here's
20:31a
20:31rather
20:31startling
20:32statement
20:33by
20:34a
20:34Japanese
20:35legislator
20:36on
20:37the
20:37floor
20:38of
20:38the
20:38Japanese
20:39House
20:40of
20:40Representatives
20:40in
20:41Tokyo
20:41we
20:41have
20:41the
20:42translation
20:42of
20:42course
20:43addressing
20:44the
20:45Japanese
20:46Prime
20:47Minister
20:47basically
20:48saying
20:48Trump
20:49is
20:50not
20:50believable
20:50the
20:51Americans
20:51are
20:51not
20:51reliable
20:52let's
20:54ally
20:54with
20:55China
20:56Chris
20:57what
20:58the
20:58US
20:58is
20:59saying
20:59is
20:59already
21:00an
21:00impossible
21:00task
21:01the
21:02theory
21:02is
21:02already
21:02a
21:03mess
21:03and
21:03there
21:03is
21:03no
21:04consistency
21:05whatsoever
21:06however
21:07if
21:07Japan
21:08were
21:08to
21:08negotiate
21:09about
21:09what
21:09they
21:09have
21:10been
21:10saying
21:10to
21:11put
21:11it
21:12bluntly
21:12it
21:12would
21:12be
21:13like
21:13a
21:13delinquent
21:13kid
21:14extorting
21:15someone
21:15if
21:16Japan
21:16listens
21:16to
21:17the
21:17and
21:17bends
21:18the
21:18other
21:18way
21:18in
21:19response
21:19to
21:19the
21:19impossible
21:20demands
21:21of
21:21bargaining
21:21and
21:21deals
21:22it
21:22will
21:23set
21:23a
21:23bad
21:23example
21:24as
21:24a
21:24customary
21:25and
21:25historical
21:26precedent
21:27if
21:28you
21:28get
21:28mugged
21:29and
21:29put
21:29money
21:29in
21:29their
21:30hands
21:30the
21:31will
21:31come
21:31back
21:31to
21:31mug
21:32us
21:32again
21:32he's
21:33not
21:33a
21:33straight
21:33partner
21:34so
21:34he
21:34won't
21:34listen
21:35to
21:35our
21:35straight
21:35talk
21:36anyway
21:37anyway
21:37I
21:37hope
21:37you
21:38will
21:38never
21:38give
21:39in
21:39to
21:39the
21:39American
21:39extortionists
21:40I
21:40know
21:40it's
21:40harsh
21:41to
21:41say
21:41but
21:41they
21:41are
21:42extortionists
21:43do
21:46you
21:46think
21:46that
21:47that
21:47view
21:48is
21:49representative
21:50of the
21:51Japanese
21:51response
21:53to
21:53Donald
21:54Trump's
21:54tariffs
21:55and
21:55do
21:55you
21:56think
21:56that
21:56Trump
21:56runs
21:57the
21:58risk
21:58of
21:58seeing
21:59Japan
22:00join
22:00BRICS
22:01or
22:01Japan
22:01at least
22:02allying
22:02itself
22:02with
22:03Beijing
22:03instead
22:03of
22:04Washington
22:04I'm
22:06not
22:06sure
22:06it's
22:07representative
22:07but
22:08I'm
22:08sure
22:09there
22:09are
22:09a
22:10good
22:10number
22:10of
22:10people
22:11inside
22:12the
22:12Japanese
22:13foreign
22:14policy
22:14elite
22:15who
22:15are
22:15thinking
22:15like
22:16that
22:16gentleman
22:16there's
22:17no
22:18way
22:18if
22:18you're
22:19Japanese
22:19or
22:19you're
22:19South
22:20Korean
22:20that
22:21you
22:21can
22:21look
22:22at
22:22President
22:22Trump's
22:23behavior
22:23and
22:24not
22:24be
22:24really
22:25nervous
22:25about
22:26where
22:26this
22:27is
22:27all
22:27headed
22:27the
22:29idea
22:29that
22:29the
22:29United
22:30States
22:30is
22:31a
22:31reliable
22:31ally
22:32for
22:32Japan
22:33or
22:33South
22:33Korea
22:34is
22:35an
22:35argument
22:35that's
22:36very
22:36hard
22:36to
22:37make
22:37at
22:37this
22:37point
22:38in
22:38time
22:38you
22:39simply
22:40do
22:40not
22:41want
22:41to
22:41underestimate
22:42the
22:42damage
22:42that
22:43Trump
22:43is
22:43doing
22:44I
22:45mean
22:45he's
22:45only
22:45been
22:45in
22:46office
22:46for
22:46a
22:46little
22:46over
22:47100
22:47days
22:47but
22:48the
22:48damage
22:48here
22:49is
22:49just
22:49enormous
22:50it
22:51gets
22:51back
22:51to
22:51our
22:51previous
22:52discussion
22:52about
22:53what
22:53he's
22:53doing
22:53with
22:54regard
22:54to
22:54the
22:54Russians
22:55you
22:55see
22:55the
22:55same
22:56kind
22:56of
22:56behavior
22:57with
23:03allies
23:03on
23:03the
23:03planet
23:04for
23:04us
23:04because
23:05these
23:05are
23:05allies
23:06we
23:06need
23:06to
23:07deal
23:07with
23:07the
23:08Chinese
23:08and
23:09what
23:09are
23:09they
23:09basically
23:10saying
23:10you
23:10cannot
23:11rely
23:11on
23:12President
23:12Trump
23:12you
23:13cannot
23:13rely
23:14on
23:14the
23:14United
23:14States
23:15this
23:15is
23:15a
23:16terrible
23:16situation
23:17and
23:17to
23:17be
23:18honest
23:18it's
23:18hard
23:18to
23:19believe
23:19we're
23:19in
23:19this
23:19situation
23:20Trump
23:22in
23:23one
23:23of
23:24his
23:24social
23:26media
23:27announcements
23:28stated
23:30about
23:30two
23:30hours
23:31ago
23:31that
23:32anybody
23:33any
23:33country
23:34that
23:34buys
23:34oil
23:35from
23:35Iran
23:36will
23:37not
23:37be
23:37allowed
23:37to
23:37do
23:38business
23:38with
23:38the
23:38United
23:39States
23:39this
23:40is
23:40crazy
23:40China
23:41gets
23:4190%
23:42of
23:42its
23:43oil
23:43from
23:43Iran
23:44we
23:44get
23:4550%
23:45of
23:46our
23:46antibiotics
23:47that
23:48are
23:48needed
23:48in
23:48every
23:49hospital
23:49in
23:49the
23:49country
23:50from
23:50China
23:51I
23:53mean
23:53I
23:53agree
23:54with
23:54you
23:54but
23:54this
23:55is
23:55just
23:55more
23:55evidence
23:56of
23:56the
23:57fact
23:58that
23:58you
23:58know
23:58this
23:59administration
23:59is
24:00operating
24:00in
24:00cloud
24:01cuckoo
24:01land
24:02I
24:02mean
24:02this
24:03is
24:03just
24:03not
24:03the
24:03way
24:04serious
24:05people
24:05run
24:05foreign
24:06policy
24:06just
24:07hard
24:07to
24:07believe
24:08where
24:08we
24:08are
24:09I
24:10don't
24:11know
24:11what
24:11else
24:11to
24:11say
24:12yeah
24:12yeah
24:12by
24:12the
24:12way
24:13the
24:13phrase
24:13you
24:13used
24:13earlier
24:14Chris
24:14checked
24:15it
24:15was
24:16cold
24:16peace
24:17when
24:18you
24:18described
24:19what
24:19Ukraine
24:20would
24:20look
24:20like
24:20that
24:21was
24:21the
24:21phrase
24:21that
24:21the
24:22two
24:22of
24:22us
24:22couldn't
24:22think
24:23of
24:23that
24:23you
24:23had
24:23used
24:24earlier
24:25I
24:25should
24:25have
24:26used
24:26the
24:27word
24:27frozen
24:27conflict
24:28it's
24:28a
24:28better
24:28phrase
24:29okay
24:30okay
24:31before we
24:32go
24:32I know
24:33you just
24:33came from
24:34a conference
24:35on
24:35India
24:36at
24:37Yale
24:37University
24:38excuse
24:39me
24:39are
24:40India
24:40and
24:40Pakistan
24:41close
24:42to
24:42another
24:42war
24:43I
24:44don't
24:44know
24:45if
24:45they're
24:45close
24:46it
24:47is
24:47a
24:47serious
24:47possibility
24:48what
24:50happened
24:50in
24:51Kashmir
24:52with
24:53this
24:53terrorist
24:53attack
24:54led
24:55to a
24:55situation
24:56inside
24:57of
24:57India
24:57where
24:59Mr.
25:01Modi
25:01is
25:01under
25:02tremendous
25:03pressure
25:03from
25:04his
25:04base
25:04to
25:05strike
25:06out
25:06against
25:07Pakistan
25:07in
25:08other
25:08words
25:08to
25:09use
25:09military
25:10force
25:10in a
25:10serious
25:11way
25:11against
25:12Pakistan
25:12on
25:14the
25:14other
25:14hand
25:15the
25:15problem
25:16that
25:16Modi
25:16faces
25:17is
25:17he
25:17does
25:17not
25:18have
25:18a
25:18good
25:18military
25:19option
25:19here
25:20it's
25:21not
25:21like
25:21he
25:21can
25:22go
25:22and
25:23slam
25:23Pakistan
25:24with
25:25military
25:25force
25:26and
25:26Pakistan
25:26won't
25:27do
25:27much
25:27and
25:28that'll
25:28be
25:28the
25:28end
25:28of
25:28the
25:29story
25:29the
25:30real
25:30problem
25:30here
25:31is
25:31that
25:32if
25:32Modi
25:32turns
25:33the
25:33Indian
25:34military
25:35loose
25:35and
25:36of
25:36course
25:36will
25:36be
25:36done
25:37at
25:37the
25:37conventional
25:37level
25:38there's
25:39no
25:39question
25:39that
25:39India
25:40has
25:40superiority
25:42at
25:43the
25:43conventional
25:44level
25:44but
25:45Pakistan
25:45has
25:46nuclear
25:46weapons
25:47and
25:47there
25:47is
25:48good
25:48reason
25:48to
25:49think
25:49that
25:50if
25:50the
25:50Indians
25:51were
25:51defeating
25:52the
25:53Pakistanis
25:54in a
25:54conventional
25:55conflict
25:55that the
25:56Pakistanis
25:57would turn
25:57to
25:58nuclear
25:58weapons
25:58is
25:59that
25:59likely
26:00no
26:00is
26:01it
26:01a
26:01serious
26:02possibility
26:02yes
26:03and
26:04the
26:04mere
26:04fact
26:04that
26:04that's
26:05a
26:05serious
26:05possibility
26:06basically
26:07means
26:08that
26:08Modi
26:08does
26:08not
26:09have
26:09a
26:09good
26:10military
26:10option
26:11but
26:11at
26:12the
26:12same
26:12time
26:12he
26:13is
26:13facing
26:13tremendous
26:14pressure
26:15from
26:15below
26:15Modi
26:16is
26:16a
26:16hardcore
26:17nationalist
26:18and
26:18most
26:18of
26:18his
26:19base
26:19is
26:19very
26:20nationalistic
26:21as
26:21you
26:21can
26:21imagine
26:22they
26:22would
26:22really
26:23relish
26:24the
26:25idea
26:25of
26:25bashing
26:26Pakistan
26:26which
26:27has
26:27the
26:28better
26:28military
26:29India
26:29or
26:30Pakistan
26:30or
26:31is
26:31there
26:31no
26:31way
26:31to
26:31assess
26:32that
26:32oh
26:33no
26:33India
26:33clearly
26:34has
26:34a
26:34better
26:34military
26:35and
26:36as
26:37I
26:37said
26:37that's
26:37why
26:38we
26:38worry
26:38that
26:38Pakistan
26:39would
26:40turn
26:40to
26:40nuclear
26:40weapons
26:41in
26:42the
26:42past
26:43whenever
26:43there's
26:43been
26:43a
26:44crisis
26:44that
26:44threatened
26:45to
26:45lead
26:45to
26:45war
26:46American
26:47presidents
26:47have
26:47gone
26:48to
26:48great
26:48lengths
26:49to
26:49put
26:50pressure
26:50on
26:51India
26:51not
26:51to
26:52launch
26:52a
26:52conventional
26:53attack
26:53the
26:54fear
26:54that
26:54it
26:54would
26:55escalate
26:55and
26:57I
26:57don't
26:58know
26:58I
26:58mean
26:58one
26:59very
26:59interesting
26:59question
27:00is
27:00what
27:01President
27:01Trump
27:02is
27:02doing
27:03to
27:03make
27:03sure
27:03that
27:04this
27:04war
27:04doesn't
27:05escalate
27:05he's
27:07very
27:07good
27:07friends
27:07with
27:08Mr.
27:09Modi
27:09and
27:09it
27:09may
27:10be
27:10that
27:10he's
27:10talking
27:11to
27:11him
27:11and
27:12he's
27:12discouraging
27:13him
27:13from
27:14launching
27:15an
27:15offensive
27:16against
27:16Pakistan
27:17but
27:17on
27:17the
27:18other
27:18hand
27:18Trump
27:18has
27:19so
27:19many
27:19balls
27:19in
27:20the
27:20air
27:20at
27:20this
27:20point
27:20in
27:24may
27:24not
27:25be
27:25paying
27:25much
27:25attention
27:26and
27:27if
27:27that's
27:27the
27:27case
27:28let's
27:28just
27:29hope
27:29the
27:29Indians
27:29don't
27:30slam
27:30the
27:31Pakistanis
27:31because
27:32of the
27:32potential
27:32for
27:33escalation
27:33here
27:34there
27:34was
27:35just
27:35an
27:36enormous
27:36explosion
27:37at
27:39a
27:39port
27:40in
27:40Iran
27:41which
27:42received
27:43chemicals
27:45necessary
27:46for
27:47use
27:47in
27:47Iranian
27:48industry
27:4870
27:49people
27:49were
27:49killed
27:50500
27:50were
27:51injured
27:51were
27:52the
27:52Israelis
27:52behind
27:53it
27:53I
27:54don't
27:54know
27:55that
27:55was
27:55my
27:55first
27:56instinct
27:56but
27:57as
27:58you
27:58and
27:58I
27:58both
27:58know
27:59you
27:59want
27:59to
27:59have
28:00evidence
28:00before
28:01you
28:01state
28:02one way
28:03or the
28:03other
28:03that
28:04the
28:04Israelis
28:04are
28:05behind
28:05this
28:06or
28:06are
28:06likely
28:07to
28:07be
28:07behind
28:08it
28:08but
28:08as
28:09best
28:09I
28:09can
28:09tell
28:10it's
28:10not
28:11there's
28:12no
28:12evidence
28:13that
28:13I
28:14see
28:14that
28:14the
28:14Israelis
28:15are
28:15behind
28:16it
28:16it
28:17might
28:17have
28:17just
28:17been
28:18a
28:18major
28:18league
28:18accident
28:19but
28:20then
28:20again
28:21maybe
28:21it
28:21is
28:21the
28:21Israelis
28:22but
28:22I
28:22think
28:22we
28:23have
28:23to
28:23wait
28:24to
28:24see
28:24what
28:25happens
28:25in
28:26terms
28:26of
28:26turning
28:27up
28:27evidence
28:27on
28:28this
28:28case
28:28before
28:28we
28:29can
28:29make
28:29any
28:29judgment
28:30here's
28:31I
28:31don't
28:32know
28:32if
28:32this
28:32was
28:32a
28:33direct
28:33response
28:34to
28:34that
28:34attack
28:35or
28:36what
28:36prompted
28:36it
28:37but
28:38here's
28:38a
28:38wacky
28:39X
28:40post
28:41formerly
28:41Twitter
28:42from
28:42the
28:42Secretary
28:43of
28:43Defense
28:43message
28:45to
28:45Iran
28:46in
28:46caps
28:47we
28:48see
28:48your
28:48lethal
28:49in
28:49caps
28:50support
28:51to
28:51the
28:51hoodies
28:52we
28:52know
28:53exactly
28:53what
28:54you
28:54are
28:54doing
28:54you
28:55know
28:56very
28:56well
28:56what
28:57the
28:57U.S.
28:57military
28:58is
28:58capable
28:58of
28:59and
29:00you
29:00were
29:00warned
29:00you
29:01will
29:02pay
29:02the
29:02consequence
29:03in
29:04caps
29:04at
29:05the
29:05time
29:05and
29:05place
29:06of
29:06our
29:07choosing
29:07does
29:08that
29:08strike
29:08you
29:09as
29:09a
29:09mature
29:10statement
29:10from
29:10the
29:11Secretary
29:11of
29:11Defense
29:12of
29:12the
29:12United
29:13States
29:13absolutely
29:15not
29:15and
29:15it's
29:16not
29:16the
29:16way
29:16you
29:17conduct
29:17international
29:18politics
29:19I
29:19mean
29:21the
29:21Trump
29:21administration
29:22is
29:22filled
29:23with
29:23amateurs
29:24people
29:25who
29:25do
29:25boneheaded
29:26things
29:26and
29:27this
29:27is
29:27just
29:27another
29:28example
29:28but
29:29I'll
29:29tell
29:29you
29:29what
29:29I
29:29think
29:30is
29:30going
29:30on
29:30here
29:31I
29:31think
29:31the
29:31Trump
29:32administration
29:33and
29:33in
29:33particular
29:34the
29:34Defense
29:35Department
29:35is
29:35deeply
29:36frustrated
29:36by
29:37the
29:37fact
29:37that
29:37they
29:38have
29:38not
29:38defeated
29:39the
29:39Houthis
29:39are
29:42shooting
29:43down
29:44Reaper
29:44drones
29:47which
29:47are
29:47very
29:48expensive
29:48very
29:48sophisticated
29:49drones
29:50and
29:50the
29:50estimates
29:50are
29:51they've
29:51shot
29:51down
29:52seven
29:52of
29:52them
29:52since
29:53the
29:53Trump
29:54administration
29:54went
29:55to war
29:55against
29:56the
29:56Houthis
29:56and
29:57furthermore
29:58we
29:58lost
29:59an
29:59F-18
29:59on
30:00an
30:00aircraft
30:00carrier
30:01that
30:02fell
30:02off
30:03when
30:03the
30:03aircraft
30:04carrier
30:04was
30:05trying
30:05to
30:05dodge
30:06a
30:06missile
30:07that
30:07the
30:07Houthis
30:07had
30:08launched
30:08at
30:08the
30:09aircraft
30:09carrier
30:09there's
30:11no
30:11question
30:11that
30:12we've
30:12launched
30:12lots
30:13of
30:13bombing
30:14raids
30:14against
30:15the
30:15Houthis
30:15and
30:16we
30:16have
30:16murdered
30:17huge
30:17numbers
30:17of
30:18civilians
30:19in
30:20Yemen
30:21but
30:22there's
30:23no
30:23evidence
30:23that
30:24we're
30:24winning
30:25this
30:25war
30:25militarily
30:26it's
30:27quite
30:27interesting
30:28the
30:28US
30:28Navy
30:28in
30:29its
30:29first
30:29big
30:29fight
30:30since
30:30World
30:31War
30:31II
30:31can't
30:32defeat
30:32the
30:32Houthis
30:33and
30:33frustration
30:34Larry
30:36Johnson
30:36one of
30:37our
30:37former
30:38military
30:38folks
30:39that's
30:39on here
30:40every
30:40week
30:41it's
30:42actually
30:42on twice
30:42a week
30:43estimates
30:44counting
30:45the F-18
30:46that's at the
30:47bottom of the
30:47ocean now
30:48which is
30:48worth
30:49between
30:5078 and
30:5180 million
30:51500 million
30:54dollars worth
30:55of missiles
30:55and drones
30:57destroyed in
30:59this effort
30:59to defeat
31:00the Houthis
31:00I have to
31:01play for you
31:02or post
31:03for you
31:04the response
31:05of and
31:05you may
31:06know him
31:06an Iranian
31:07professor
31:07from the
31:08University
31:08of Tehran
31:10Professor
31:10Marandi
31:11M-A-R-A-N-D-I
31:13Sayed
31:13Marandi
31:14message to
31:15Hegseth
31:16we see
31:17your
31:17lethal
31:18in caps
31:19support
31:19for the
31:20Zionists
31:21the child
31:21killers
31:22the rapists
31:22we know
31:23exactly
31:24what you
31:25are doing
31:25you know
31:26very well
31:27what the
31:27resistance
31:28is capable
31:29of
31:29and you
31:30were warned
31:30you will
31:31be remembered
31:32as an
31:33accomplice
31:33to the
31:34hashtag
31:35Gaza
31:36Holocaust
31:37so you
31:39see what
31:39Hegseth's
31:40childlike
31:41statements
31:42provoke
31:43yeah
31:44exactly
31:45and of
31:46course
31:46I don't
31:47know that
31:48professor
31:48I know
31:48the name
31:49but he
31:50is right
31:51we are
31:51supporting
31:52a genocide
31:53in Gaza
31:54just want
31:54to think
31:55about what
31:55the Trump
31:55administration
31:56is doing
31:57here
31:58it is
31:59bungling
32:00the
32:00negotiations
32:01with Russia
32:03to settle
32:03the Ukraine
32:04war
32:04it's bungling
32:06the negotiations
32:07with the
32:07Iranians
32:08it's supporting
32:09a genocide
32:10in Gaza
32:11it's levied
32:12these tariffs
32:13against countries
32:15all across
32:15the world
32:16including some
32:17of our
32:17closest allies
32:18like the
32:19Japanese
32:19that we
32:20need
32:20and pushing
32:21them to
32:21the point
32:22where at
32:22least some
32:23of them
32:23are beginning
32:23to think
32:24about whether
32:24or not
32:25they want
32:25to rely
32:26on us
32:27in the
32:27future
32:28it's really
32:28quite amazing
32:30what a mess
32:31the Trump
32:31administration
32:32has made
32:33of our
32:33foreign policy
32:34in only
32:34100 days
32:35one can
32:36only wonder
32:37what it's
32:38going to
32:38look like
32:39after four
32:39years
32:40do we
32:40still have
32:41a congress
32:41no
32:43that's
32:44that's
32:44long gone
32:45that disappeared
32:46many years
32:47ago
32:47when you
32:48and I
32:48were still
32:49young
32:49and presidents
32:51started declaring
32:52their own
32:52wars and
32:53getting away
32:53with it
32:53well you
32:54remember
32:54you remember
32:55the Vietnam
32:56War
32:56by the way
32:57the reason
32:58the only
32:58reason the
32:58Vietnam War
32:59ended
33:00or our
33:01participation
33:01ended
33:03in 1973
33:04was because
33:05congress
33:05stepped in
33:06and said
33:07enough
33:07is enough
33:08right
33:08congress
33:09was a
33:09different
33:10animal
33:10in those
33:10days
33:11at this
33:11point
33:12in time
33:12congress
33:13just
33:13doesn't
33:14matter
33:14we live
33:15in the
33:15age
33:15of the
33:16imperial
33:16presidency
33:17whether it's
33:18Biden
33:18or it's
33:19Donald Trump
33:20we do
33:21and it's
33:21going to
33:21get worse
33:22if he
33:22threatens
33:22to suspend
33:23habeas
33:23corpus
33:24if he
33:24threatens
33:25to defy
33:25courts
33:26if he
33:26threatens
33:26to vilify
33:27judges
33:27and arrest
33:28them
33:28we will
33:29have a
33:29constitutional
33:30crisis
33:31on our
33:32hands
33:32that will
33:32make
33:33Watergate
33:34look like
33:35a child's
33:35Christmas
33:36party
33:36right
33:37so what
33:37you're
33:38describing
33:38is the
33:38domestic
33:39front
33:39what I
33:40was
33:40describing
33:40two
33:41minutes
33:41ago
33:41is the
33:41foreign
33:42policy
33:42front
33:42it's
33:43a
33:43deadly
33:44one-two
33:45punch
33:45here
33:46yes
33:46United
33:47States
33:47is
33:47shooting
33:48itself
33:48in the
33:49foot
33:49both
33:49domestically
33:50and in
33:51terms
33:51of our
33:51foreign
33:51policy
33:52what is
33:52going
33:53on
33:53here
33:53do we
33:57have a
33:57Congress
33:58yes
33:59it's
33:59called
33:59the
34:00Knesset
34:00that's
34:03that's
34:04another
34:04that's
34:05another
34:05matter
34:06that's
34:06another
34:06story
34:07we
34:07shouldn't
34:08laugh
34:08at it
34:08Chris
34:09suggested
34:09the line
34:10and I
34:10couldn't
34:10help
34:11using
34:12it
34:13it's
34:13it's
34:14deadly
34:14serious
34:15and it's
34:15another
34:16story
34:16for another
34:16time
34:17you are
34:17the
34:18foremost
34:19authority
34:19on this
34:20subject
34:20matter
34:20Professor
34:21Meersheimer
34:22thank you
34:22very much
34:22been a
34:23long
34:23conversation
34:25or longer
34:26than usual
34:26but deeply
34:27gratifying
34:28to be able
34:29to pick
34:29your brain
34:29on all
34:30these
34:30topics
34:30from all
34:31around
34:31the globe
34:33and look
34:33forward to
34:34seeing you
34:34next week
34:34my dear
34:35friend
34:35I look
34:36forward
34:36to being
34:37back
34:37thank you
34:38coming up
34:40tomorrow
34:40at four
34:41o'clock
34:42Friday
34:42the end
34:43of the
34:43day
34:44the end
34:44of the
34:44week
34:45the
34:46intelligence
34:46community
34:47roundtable
34:47with Larry
34:48Johnson
34:48in Florida
34:49and Ray
34:50McGovern
34:50in Moscow
34:51don't want
34:53to miss
34:53it
34:53Judge
34:53Napolitano
34:54for Judging
34:55Freedom
35:20in Moscow
35:21to be
35:22in Moscow
35:23in Moscow
35:23to be
35:24in Moscow
35:24to be
35:25in Moscow
35:25to be