⚠️ Is time running out for Ukraine?
In this hard-hitting interview, former intelligence officer Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer breaks down the military, political, and economic pressures squeezing Ukraine’s war effort. 🧠💥
🇷🇺 Russia gains ground.
🇺🇦 Ukraine faces manpower, ammo, and morale challenges.
Western aid is uncertain — and public support is fading.
🎙️ Shaffer delivers unfiltered insight into how long Ukraine can realistically sustain the fight — and what happens if it can’t.
👇 Share your thoughts in the comments — and don’t forget to like & subscribe for more real analysis from the experts.
#TonyShaffer #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #MilitaryAnalysis #Geopolitics #UkraineCrisis #WesternAid #USForeignPolicy #WarUpdate #DefenseIntel #UkraineMilitary #RussiaAdvances #TruthUnfiltered #DeepStateWatch #GlobalTensions #WarFatigue #HowLongCanUkraineLast #EasternFront #StrategicAnalysis #WarRealities
In this hard-hitting interview, former intelligence officer Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer breaks down the military, political, and economic pressures squeezing Ukraine’s war effort. 🧠💥
🇷🇺 Russia gains ground.
🇺🇦 Ukraine faces manpower, ammo, and morale challenges.
Western aid is uncertain — and public support is fading.
🎙️ Shaffer delivers unfiltered insight into how long Ukraine can realistically sustain the fight — and what happens if it can’t.
👇 Share your thoughts in the comments — and don’t forget to like & subscribe for more real analysis from the experts.
#TonyShaffer #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #MilitaryAnalysis #Geopolitics #UkraineCrisis #WesternAid #USForeignPolicy #WarUpdate #DefenseIntel #UkraineMilitary #RussiaAdvances #TruthUnfiltered #DeepStateWatch #GlobalTensions #WarFatigue #HowLongCanUkraineLast #EasternFront #StrategicAnalysis #WarRealities
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NewsTranscript
00:00Transcription by CastingWords
00:30Transcription by CastingWords
01:00Transcription by CastingWords
01:30This is a form of boots on the ground without deploying boots.
01:33I understand why the Russians don't want foreign troops in Ukraine.
01:37I get it.
01:38One of the things that others have proposed to include, some of the folks we're going to talk about today, was deploying some sort of a peacekeeper force that is essentially made up of NATO troops.
01:48Well, it's never going to work, especially if U.S. troops showed up.
01:51So this is a way of kind of circling the square.
01:54It's like, yeah, we're going to put American people on the ground.
01:58It's going to they're going to be there to commercially develop a partnership.
02:03And by the way, this isn't going to happen overnight.
02:05This is going to take upwards of five to 10 years just to get everything in place.
02:09So it's not snap your fingers, everybody's in.
02:12It's a gradual walk up.
02:14Another factor, Judge, is this is a way of recouping the billions of dollars that we put into it.
02:20But we the agreement is lower and a lower overall aggregated amount.
02:27That is what the Ukrainians are expected to pay us.
02:31This is a reconstruction fund.
02:33So some of it will be paying for the past.
02:36Some of it will be paying for our current support.
02:38But the one thing that we'll not pay for that, as far as I can tell, is weapons.
02:42The weapons are out.
02:43We're drawing down our support.
02:45Those weapons in the pipeline end within, I think, two months.
02:50By July, all the things we promised and bought for them is going to end.
02:55So the one thing that's not in this deal are new weapons.
02:58So that's important to recognize.
03:01So a couple of questions.
03:03Ritter says much of the land that has the minerals, the profits from which the United States wants to share in,
03:14are under Russian control.
03:17And to that extent, portions of this are are moot.
03:22And McGregor says there is a security guarantee.
03:26And the minute we put an American soldier in uniform, literally boots on the ground, we have World War Three with Russia.
03:35We do.
03:36Well, I don't see the latter happening under the agreement.
03:38Nothing I've seen in the agreement says there's going to be U.S. troops.
03:41It'll be investors.
03:42I agree with with the fact that the grand majority of the terrain, that the territory that has rare earths is in Don Boston, the hell territory.
03:55With that said, Judge, that's why we're negotiating with Putin, too.
03:58Putin has said to Trump, hey, we'll give you rare earths, too.
04:01So I think it's a good thing.
04:03But let me be clear on this.
04:04And this may get me in trouble with your audience.
04:06We need to be looking for rare earths right here in the United States.
04:10One of the things I think we've neglected is developing a sustainable path to these minerals we need for a 21st century society right here.
04:20Tennessee, Utah, Oregon, Montana.
04:24We all have these things.
04:26It's just our environmental movement has prevented us from going to explore our own.
04:30Trump wisely, in your opinion and mine, if I can speak for you, because I think I know where you stand on this, will dial back the environmental extremism that has prevented that kind of exploration.
04:43And the country, I mean, the loopy, loony lefties are still the same.
04:49But the vast majority of the country wants that stuff dialed back, not eliminated, but dialed back to a reasonable level.
04:58But back to Ukraine.
05:00Can Trump negotiate a peaceful end when the linchpin of that has to be ceding Crimea and most of the four oblasts to Russia?
05:16And if Zelensky does cede that, he's a dead man.
05:21Agree?
05:23I agree that he's a dead man no matter what, Judge.
05:26His usefulness to both sides is about to end.
05:30The extremists on his side, the neo-Nazis, they've gotten their mileage out of him.
05:37He's been willing to carry this war on despite all off ramps that were offered.
05:41So I just don't see a rainbow and unicorn in his future with them and with us and with the Russians.
05:49He has been essentially unwilling to actually examine realistic options going back to the beginning of the war when there was an off ramp given.
05:59I think the Istanbul Accords were offered.
06:02Essentially, it was a form of a ceasefire that resulted in territorial concessions.
06:08He didn't do that.
06:09So I don't there's no win there for Zelensky.
06:13And at this point, literally in danger of being assassinated by the super nationalists around him, if he can see even an inch of earth to Putin.
06:23Yeah, I think so.
06:24And it would be tragic, but maybe it's time.
06:27I mean, I don't I don't I wish no bad will on.
06:30Understood.
06:31Understood.
06:32But I think he's got to he's got to move on.
06:35Putin has argued Putin, the lawyer.
06:38I didn't even know he was a lawyer, but he is a Russian lawyer.
06:41Putin has argued that Zelensky is not the lawful head of state and doesn't have the authority to sign any commitment, ceasefire or treaty, whatever level it's going to be.
06:55Might the same be said of this agreement that his minister of finance, whoever it was that flew over here yesterday, signed with our secretary of the Treasury?
07:09Not a lawful government, not a lawful agreement.
07:11Well, I think the Ministry of Treasury has more authority and potential legal standing than Zelensky, to your point.
07:19I think Zelensky at this point has gone against their own constitution, even though they're even though the Ukrainian parliament has said, yeah, we know the Constitution.
07:27We're backing him anyway.
07:28I think there was a vote of confidence just right.
07:31I think in late January, early February, because President Trump also said, hey, there's doubts about this guy being legit.
07:38So that will be called into question.
07:40Plus, there's a question of what exactly did the Ukrainian sign with the British back in three days before President Trump's inauguration in January?
07:49I think it was 17th of January, the British signed some sort of a comprehensive deal for this.
07:56So I'm still worried, Judge, that the Ukrainians may have done a double, triple dealing where, yeah, they've already signed these mineral rights off to the British, and we're going to have to litigate this somewhere down the road.
08:07So I trust no one at this point.
08:10This is like a first year of law school examination question.
08:16A guy sells the same product to two different people, and neither of them knows it, but he'll end up owning it.
08:22Yeah, it's a legitimate question.
08:23It's a legitimate question.
08:25Is Colonel, excuse me, is General Kellogg legitimate?
08:29I mean, the proposal that he offered, Tony, most respectfully to his three or four stars, I think it's four, is so dead in the water from minute one, one wonders why the Trump team even allowed him to come forward with it.
08:47And he's still selling it.
08:48He went on with Martha McCallum yesterday afternoon saying, I got Zelensky to agree to most of it.
08:54So I want to be respectful but direct regarding Kellogg.
09:00Kellogg is in the Jack Keane Center for the Promotion of War, I mean Center for the Study of War group, who really are trying their best to maintain Putin bad, Zelensky pure.
09:16We need to continue the war no matter what.
09:18That's what they're doing.
09:21And I am concerned that Kellogg does have a seat at the table because what he says on the air is empty of any factual support in reality.
09:33Yes.
09:33Let's be clear.
09:34Let's be clear.
09:35This is a special military operation.
09:38I'm a military guy.
09:40I understand that this is not a quote unquote invasion of Ukraine.
09:44I understand that an invasion of Ukraine would look a lot different.
09:51As a matter of fact, right now, the Russians are preparing to return to the offensive.
09:55I think they could return to the offensive within, I don't know, two or three weeks.
09:58It would still be a limited offensive along the current contact lines somewhere along that thing.
10:05It's not a patent style breaking of lines going towards Kev.
10:10It was never meant to do that.
10:12The pressure on Kev was to put pressure on Kev.
10:15They were trying to take the whole country.
10:17So when he says, oh, we've stopped, we have stopped Putin from taking Ukraine, it's like, no, you haven't.
10:25He never wanted the whole thing.
10:27He had a limited set of objectives, which, by the way, Judge, he's met about 80% of them.
10:32Agreed.
10:33Agreed.
10:33Agreed.
10:34So when he comes on and says this, what I consider neocon propaganda, he loses credibility with people like us, and I don't think he serves the president well because what he's telling the president is not supported by the facts as they are.
10:48So I'm very concerned anytime I see this sort of thing.
10:51The core of what he has offered is dead in the water.
10:55It's a NATO organized.
10:57The minute you say NATO, it's dead in the water with Putin.
11:00But a NATO organized division of Ukraine the way Germany was divided after 1945.
11:08Now, here he is yesterday with Martha McCallum saying, oh, they've agreed to 22 points already in London last week.
11:15He won't tell you what 22 points they were, but here's what he had to say.
11:19Out of London last week, where we sat down with the Ukrainian team, with the Europeans as well, and we had 22 concrete terms that they've agreed to.
11:28What they want to at the very first and what they have is a very comprehensive and permanent ceasefire that leads to a peace treaty.
11:36When I mean comprehensive sea, air, land infrastructure for at least 30 days.
11:41Why is 30 days important?
11:42Because it can build to a permanent peace initiative.
11:46And the reason why 30 days is important, it stops the killing.
11:49That's what President Trump wants to do.
11:51Catch what he said, who agreed?
11:53The Europeans and the Ukrainians.
11:56The Russians weren't at the table.
11:58So who's agreeing with them?
12:00Again, this is, again, I've said this.
12:02There's two ships passing in the night.
12:03The Europeans with Zelensky and his extremists and, you know, Vance, Rubio and President Trump and the Russians.
12:13There's a big there's no there there where these things come together.
12:18So I can only imagine that they're allowing Kellogg to go do your little negotiations, because I'm just telling you right now from what I've seen that the core Trump team's not buying into what Kellogg's saying.
12:31I mean, NATO is off the table.
12:33The idea of French troops, British troops coming in as some sort of a peacekeeper, again, it's off the table.
12:38It's a red line the Russians have set.
12:40Do you think the Kremlin takes General Kellogg seriously?
12:45No, I don't.
12:46I don't.
12:46And, again, I'm trying to be respectful to General Kellogg in his service and understand that maybe President Trump has him in the game for a reason.
12:55With that said, that reason is not credible to those we have to convince to end this.
13:01Remember, the Russians are winning.
13:03Any grace that Putin gives the process is because Putin does want an off ramp that will benefit all parties.
13:12This Kellogg proposal is imposing NATO's will on the Russians.
13:18That's not going to happen.
13:20It's just not going to happen.
13:21Here's what Foreign Minister Lavrov had to say on Sunday about the 30-day Kellogg proposal.
13:32Chris, cut number six.
13:33If you want a ceasefire just to continue to supply arms to Ukraine, so what is your purpose?
13:40You know what Kaya Kalas and what's his name, Mark Rutte, said about the ceasefire?
13:47The NATO Secretary General and the European Union.
13:49They bluntly stated that they can support only the deal which, at the end of the day, will make Ukraine stronger, would make Ukraine a victor.
14:01So, if this is the purpose of the ceasefire, I don't think this is what President Trump wants.
14:05This is what Europeans, together with Zelensky, want to make out of President Trump's initiative.
14:11Yeah, so this, what Kellogg's pushing is Minsk, Minsk three.
14:19Minsk one didn't work, Minsk two didn't work.
14:22So, this is essentially the same thing.
14:24And that's what Lavrov's saying.
14:26It's like, look, we've seen this movie before, and we got the short end of the stick both times.
14:32We're not doing it.
14:33And you're not going to change their perception.
14:36And so, the Minsk issue is out.
14:38I think what they're heading for is Istanbul Plus.
14:41Istanbul was an alternative that was put forward.
14:45The Ukrainians almost signed, except Boris Yeltsin.
14:48I mean, sorry, Boris Johnson.
14:50They're both drunks, but one is different than the other, just saying.
14:57Just telling you, it is what it is, right?
15:02I can't change the way things are.
15:04Anyway, Boris Johnson convinced the Ukrainians to not sign and stop this thing two and a half years ago.
15:11So, those are the two competing tracks.
15:15Lavrov has said no to Minsk three.
15:18It's not going to happen.
15:19And yet, Kellogg's out there pushing Minsk three.
15:22And he's right.
15:23The perception is, I'm not in the game, so I can't tell you the internals.
15:27But the perception is, we give you the ceasefire.
15:30You rearm, you go back and fight us again.
15:33So, that's off the table.
15:35The other, the Istanbul Accords is essentially the freezing of things where they're at, concession of territory, and they get to the table.
15:45The one thing that the Russians keep saying, and you just said it, they weren't at the table with Kellogg.
15:52With Kellogg, the Russians keep saying, we want to have a direct dialogue with Ukraine.
15:57That's what they keep saying.
15:59And so, the longer you have this alternate group, you know, doing their own thing, the more it damages.
16:07And President Trump's even said this, the Europeans have to stop working against me.
16:10Clearly, they're not doing that.
16:12Kellogg, by the way, Kellogg's encouraging them to continue to work against President Trump, which is not a good thing.
16:17I don't know why he's putting up with it.
16:20Let's talk for a minute or so about the Secretary of Defense.
16:25Before we get to the latest nonsense, which I think is childish, but we'll get to it in a minute.
16:30What is the view of the troops on his behavior thus far, his wife in these meetings, the use of signal for classified information, the outright lying about whether or not military plans were placed on signal, the firing of his chief of staff and the people around him, the forced polygraph tests on senior military people?
16:59Well, how does that react to – how do troops react to that?
17:05I think the troops are just happy to have the Biden folks gone.
17:10I mean, let's be very clear on the good and bad.
17:15The good is DEI is dead, long overdue.
17:19The idea that a Marxist form of discrimination to right wrongs was never going to work.
17:25C.Q. Brown was relieved because of that.
17:27I still believe – and I'll be blunt on this, I'm going to be really blunt – there should be a review of all senior executives in the senior SESs and general officers, and only two criteria should exist.
17:42First off, are you fit to continue service?
17:49That is to say, are you able to continue service and support the Constitution?
17:56And any DEI stuff in your background, anything you've done, that automatically kind of eliminates you.
18:02It's like, yeah, you've got to go.
18:03You've got to go.
18:04We've got to make room for new people.
18:06Secondly, are you technically competent?
18:08Are you actually capable of doing this job?
18:09So I have to ask you, is Pete Hegseth fit and competent?
18:13Well, by the President's standards, absolutely, at this point.
18:18By Tony Schaefer's standards.
18:20All right, so by Tony Schaefer's standards, there's some things – full disclosure, I've told people I would have done things differently, very differently.
18:30I would have organized differently.
18:31Let me say this right up front.
18:33Now, the two things I would have done immediately that he didn't do, and I don't know if he's done yet, is seize what I consider centers of gravity.
18:43That's a military term, you know, Clausewitz, centers of gravity.
18:47There are certain centers, nerve centers in the Pentagon you must have control of to be able to essentially just sustain yourself.
18:56One of those is internal security.
18:58That is the Pentagon force protection, the security system.
19:03What I've seen is that he doesn't have control of that because the chaos internally of people being investigated, all that, you don't need that chaos.
19:11So that's a mistake there, I think, that was made.
19:13Secondly, relating to permitting third parties to have access to things.
19:20The signal gate thing, Judge, that was – I love Pete.
19:29Pete's a friend.
19:30But he should have delegated that to his deputies.
19:34This is where his lack of senior-level executive experience is kind of shown.
19:41You have your deputies do all that.
19:43You have – that's why they have – you know, you're the big guy.
19:46You've got all these mid-guys who do all the work.
19:48There have been nothing wrong with having deputies chatting in some secure form.
19:55There's secure things.
19:56I've talked to folks at the Pentagon about this.
19:58And just have that done with the deputies.
20:01And then you guys talk to each other on a phone.
20:03It's like, oh, this is really badass.
20:04You can do that.
20:06And I think there's ways it could have been done better.
20:09So I'll leave it at that.
20:11All right.
20:11Pete's not me.
20:12I'm not Pete.
20:12Chris, put up the full screen of Hegseth's ex-post.
20:18Message to Iran.
20:21We see your lethal support to the Houthis.
20:24We know exactly what you are doing.
20:26You know very well what the U.S. military is capable of.
20:29And you were warned.
20:31You will pay the consequence in caps at the time and place of our choosing.
20:35Listen, I think that is childish in the extreme.
20:43I suspect he was encouraged to do that tweet.
20:46You all know I advised Joe Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Joe Dunford, under the first Trump administration.
20:57One of the things I told Joe, I don't think Joe will mind me saying this, is as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Joe, you must make a friend of social media and President Trump.
21:09So I think some of this is President Trump, who's learned how to use social media, extending that down to Pete.
21:19So I don't know if Pete thought to do that on his own or just I don't know.
21:23But that is that is a legitimate form of messaging.
21:26You may not like it.
21:27And I've seen people on social media all nuts about it.
21:30But there's people in Tehran reading that and recognizing bad things may happen.
21:35And I still believe we need to clarify our objectives for the Middle East.
21:40But is this is this the most is this the most effective way to communicate with diplomats around the world rather than picking up a phone?
21:50This isn't about the diplomats.
21:52This is about the people below the diplomats who will see this, who may not be told it by their own people.
21:57You can't you can't shield all your people from social media, especially Iran.
22:02So I'm saying that this is a legitimate form of messaging that that President Trump is famous for.
22:10And I'm going to ask you one more time.
22:11And I think you may not want to go there because Seg Seth is your friend.
22:15Is he qualified to be Secretary of Defense?
22:18Is he long for the job?
22:21I think he's as qualified as I am.
22:24So in many ways, because that job requires someone to come in and understand the enterprise, but not be captured by it.
22:33This is the key thing.
22:35So as much as I think maybe I have a better understanding of some of the of the structure, because I've again, I've advised the chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
22:44I've worked at that level for a long time.
22:46I think I may have known some some block and tackle options, but the big issue here, and this is why they want him out, Judge, is that he's not part of the military industrial complex.
23:02He's not from Raytheon.
23:03He's not from remember all these other guys, even Jim Mattis.
23:06When Jim Mattis came in, he came off a board of one of the big defense concerns.
23:11I think that's the one factor that is most important to Pete.
23:15He has to be an outsider.
23:17And I think, frankly, that's why you see so much stress right now on him is because those big defense.
23:23You know, you just saw John Bolton threaten him yesterday.
23:25Remember John Bolton?
23:26I didn't see that.
23:28But but look, yeah, he's sounding like a bully.
23:32If he's if he's really a strong, well, tough guy, then his actions will speak for him rather than his antagonistic, childish words.
23:42I again, I think that that he may be directed to do some things, which we may not fully appreciate.
23:49I think the tweet is OK.
23:52I think it's telling me the White House wrote the tweet.
23:54I'm saying that there's a pretty good chance that there's an overall campaign.
23:59But we would you know, look, I was just talking about this on the network earlier.
24:03This is from the 1990s information operations.
24:06So one of the things that we recognized a long time ago, that the cyberspace is a military a military dominion.
24:19It is a legitimate area where you will have conflict.
24:23So this all may well be part of a larger campaign, information operations campaign designed to create certain conditions or potentiality within the mind of an adversary.
24:36So I wouldn't put it past people from doing that.
24:39And I'm not part of it.
24:40Obviously, I wouldn't be talking about it if I was part of it.
24:42So.
24:44All right, Tony, thank you very much.
24:46I almost forgot how much fun it is to be on with you at the crack of dawn.
24:50But it's a pleasure to have you back on the show.
24:52I hope we can do it regularly.
24:54Yes, sir.
24:54Thanks for having me.
24:55By the way, are you a commissioner yet?
24:57Have you been sworn in?
24:58Yeah, yeah.
24:58No, I've been.
25:00I've been a commissioner since December.
25:03And man, oh, man.
25:05Talk about I'm on five different committees to include.
25:09Get this.
25:09I'm on three medical committees.
25:12I'm on the hospital committee, the regional health committee.
25:14And Trillium, which is like mental health.
25:18And by the way, Judge, I've asked the county to put get some money so I can go to medical school since I'm not a doctor.
25:25But I should be a doctor to be on all these medical things.
25:28So.
25:29But no, it's an uphill climb.
25:30I'm learning a lot about local government and how things work.
25:33So I actually appreciate the opportunity.
25:36So it's been it's been fun.
25:37So thank you for asking.
25:39All right.
25:39All the best, Tony.
25:40Thank you very much.
25:41We'll see you again soon.
25:43And coming up later today at 11 o'clock this morning, Aaron Maté at 2 this afternoon, Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson at 3 this afternoon, Professor John Mearsheimer.
25:55And sometime during the day, because he is very hot over the so-called deal between Ukraine and the United States, Colonel Douglas McGregor.
26:08Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.