🌐 What’s Brewing? Russia, China & Iran CLOSER Than Ever 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇷 | Trump Tensions Boil Over - Mark Sleboda

4/12/2025

Geopolitical tectonics are shifting fast.
As Trump-era tensions resurface, Russia, China, and Iran are drawing closer than ever — building alliances that could redefine global power. ⚖️🌍

In this episode, Mark Sleboda joins Dialogue Works to dissect what’s really going on behind the scenes:
🔹 The strategic triangle between Moscow, Beijing & Tehran
🔹 U.S. instability and the return of Trump
🔹 What this alignment means for the multipolar world order

📢 Don’t miss this deep dive into the alliance the West fears most.

#MarkSleboda #DialogueWorks #RussiaChinaIran #GeopoliticalShift #MultipolarWorld #TrumpTensions #USForeignPolicy #BRICSAlliance #GlobalRealignment #IranChinaCooperation #RussiaIranAxis #Geopolitics2025 #StrategicTriangle #USVsEurasia #WorldOrderShift #GreatPowerRivalry #NewColdWar #ChinaNews #RussiaNews #MiddleEastPolitics

Transcript

00:00:00hi everybody it's friday april 11th 2025 and our friend mark sloboda is back with us welcome back

00:00:13mark nima thanks for having me it's always an honor and a pleasure to be on dialogue works

00:00:19and uh i'm i'm just glad you could fit me in with the other 15 interviews you'll be doing today

00:00:30mark let's get sorted with what's going on in moscow where you live and

00:00:37what's going on with steve whitkoff what does he want from vladimir putin in your opinion um

00:00:45i i don't know first of all you know these steve whitkoff is um trump's personal envoy of choice

00:00:57right he has been sent to deal with things uh with the israel palestine issue um i have heard that he

00:01:05has been sent uh to oman to deal with the uh u.s iranian uh talks uh mediated by oman um he had tomorrow

00:01:18yes yes tomorrow um he has um been uh negotiating with with russia as as really as as trump's uh go to

00:01:32um uh when uh the u.s and the russians met for the first time and uh it was three on three and and

00:01:45you know the idea of equivalent ranked members on each side so we had uh u.s secretary of state marco

00:01:53rubio uh and um the russian foreign minister sergey lavrov although frankly comparing mark rubio as a

00:02:03diplomat versus lavrov is not a fair comparison he's a political hack and and uh lavrov is is the most

00:02:14experienced and formidable diplomat in the world of this generation and and probably i think you have

00:02:22to go back to figures like molotov and and bismarck to to find his equal uh anywhere but um there was

00:02:32also uh a mike waltz as u.s national security advisor and yuri ushakov uh whom is uh putin's uh personal

00:02:43foreign policy advisor so roughly uh you know equivalent there and then um trump sent his

00:02:50personal envoy steve whitkoff right and he is the one who has actually been talking to the russians

00:02:57the most on other occasions as well and who is steve whitkoff so you know he's a a story diplomat

00:03:04he's been at the state department for decades no no he hasn't no no he's he's he's got no diplomatic

00:03:10experience whatsoever he's got no education in anything of the store international relations

00:03:16nothing he's he's got nothing he is a new york real estate developer friend of trump and he trump

00:03:24trusts him that that's it i mean you i've heard people describe him as charming as you know as uh

00:03:30you know i don't know he seems like a used car salesman frankly to me right he's kind of slimy you

00:03:35know i i don't know um but so you have to weigh these things here with trump's choice of him

00:03:44he's got no experience right dealing with the most crucial issue of our times right uh because the

00:03:53conflict in ukraine has become a global order changing conflict right and out the other side of

00:04:02it you know in the middle of it yes but even more so out whatever the the end game of it indeed looks

00:04:09like um and you know the the us has got someone with with no experience no real knowledge of russia

00:04:17um a couple of weeks ago he couldn't even remember what the uh the donetsk and lugansk republic names were

00:04:27and harrison and zaporozhan krimia there's a few of them right you know he doesn't you know little

00:04:32details little details right and you know of course one of russia's demands is that those five regions

00:04:39at a minimum are all now part of russia so you you think that the top negotiator you know might have a

00:04:46handle of this but you know detail shmeetails right you know trump doesn't need any of that he can make a

00:04:53deal the art of the deal it's so high diplomacy geopolitics new york real estate you know mafia

00:05:01tactics it's the same thing right you know okay but on on the other hand now obviously i've been

00:05:10expressing nothing but contempt for steve whitguff in that regard but there there is something to be said

00:05:16for this choice um trump doesn't trust anyone within the u.s blob as ben rhodes called the

00:05:24foreign policy and security uh elite in and out of office right the deep state the permanent

00:05:32bureaucracy whatever you want to call it trump's at war with these people right and a political war

00:05:38internal in the u.s and particularly after his first administration he doesn't trust any of them

00:05:44right does he really trust marco rubio no probably not right you know that mike well you know it's

00:05:51whitkoff right whitkoff is the guy he keeps shuttling back and forth and russia's equivalent choice

00:06:00all right who who putin selected interestingly as the equivalent of um whitkoff is kirill dimitriyev

00:06:10uh kirill dimitriyev um is the head of russia's direct investment fund right it's not a government

00:06:21position it's actually a civilian business role right you know an administrative business role it's

00:06:28it's not the same as the american chamber of commerce but as you could think of him as the chair of of that

00:06:35fund in in a similar way um and he's u.s educated yeah he received some higher not completely but

00:06:43he received some higher education in the united states uh he speaks fluent english um as people

00:06:49who saw him he was just in the white house over a week ago um and they went on u.s media afterwards

00:06:56where they asked him about you know the possibility of russia um uh get you know um giving concessions

00:07:06uh in ukraine in return for sanctions relief and he was like he shattered their brains right he really

00:07:13he really uh he said nope not really it's not a priority for us our economy's doing fine growing at

00:07:19four percent gdp last year better than you better than the europeans right a lot of russian businesses

00:07:25have done very well after the americans and europeans left the market right they they they

00:07:31you know uh we are now the most sovereign uh major power in the world probably the most sovereign country

00:07:38in the world right you can't uh hold us hostage and blackmail us again with with your sanctions with

00:07:47your control of swift and the global financial architecture you know if you want to you know you

00:07:53want to come back into our into our market that's a favor for you we could we can discuss that right

00:07:59but um it's not a priority for us we have goals of the smo that's our priority and that kind of shocked

00:08:06them right because that's not what the way the western media uh presents it but that was you know i

00:08:12think the first time that the the american public really saw kareel dimitriyev um so um interestingly

00:08:21enough he uh kareel dimitriyev was actually born in ukraine right uh he was born in kiev and zelinski

00:08:31has declared him a traitor separatist and ordered his arrest because you know that never mind the fact

00:08:40that he's a russian citizen now now he was born in ukraine and now he's a traitor and so he must be

00:08:45dealt with because the the regime that that zelinski leads you know the maidan regime has assassinated

00:08:54killed assassinated murdered thousands of east ukrainians right of ukrainians who didn't agree

00:09:01with the 2014 u.s backed might on push and everything that has happened since right militia

00:09:08leaders politicians activists you know administer anyone right i mean they've killed hundreds it's

00:09:15got to be up into the thousands uh and then they're quite proud about it it was openly admitted

00:09:20by budanov and others right you know uh the the russian the uh ukrainian military intelligence was

00:09:27rebuilt uh from the ground up by the caa effectively as an assassination machine right to kill dissidents

00:09:36ukrainian dissidents now kareel's not a dissident you know he's he's long since become a russian but

00:09:42that doesn't stop zelinski from regarding him as a traitor and he's not the only one um alexei zabritsky

00:09:51um is currently one of the russian cosmonauts on the international space station

00:09:57right but zabritsky young guy you know uh for for the role very accomplished um he was born uh in

00:10:06zaporoza uh and he's he went to uh military academy and became a pilot in harukov and then served in uh

00:10:17you know uh the ukrainian military as a pilot well when 2014 happened and and crimea uh had the referendum

00:10:27and returned to russia the majority of the ukrainian um navy and air force right they defected to russia

00:10:37right radio free europe radio liberty even had i'm sure it's out there somewhere still a video report on

00:10:43it where they admitted that 75 percent of the ukrainian navy defected to russia right and he was one of them

00:10:52right um so and he was good as a pilot and he earned trust and he made accomplishments and he

00:11:00was selected for cosmonaut training and he was selected to actually be sent into space and zelinski

00:11:07regards him as a traitor and a deserter right obviously he should be you know conscripted and

00:11:14sent to the front in the trenches like everyone else right um and he has ordered his arrest right so

00:11:22obviously you know the ukrainians are gonna you know i don't know jet up to the international

00:11:26space station and and put zabrzyski in handcuffs any day now it's it's madness the man is the man is

00:11:33mad he he hates russians he admitted it and and these people self-identify as russians and lavrov

00:11:41pointed out today how how can we let this man govern any ethnic russians or pro-russians or russian

00:11:50speakers in ukraine he said that he has hatred for them and that it fuels him despite the fact

00:11:57that he of course is a native russian speaker himself right he speaks ukrainian uh you know not very

00:12:03well it's not his mother tongue he made his comedic fortune in the russian language you can't even show

00:12:09his movies without you know having them dubbed over in ukraine today but you know that that is

00:12:16who zelinski is um so i mean he zabrzyski dimitriyev they fall in the same category um and um dimitriyev

00:12:29again is the equivalent of whitkoff someone that putin trusts but is seen as a business person who can

00:12:36speak the language of whitkoff and uh trump uh and now whitkoff uh is in moscow and and it's not hard

00:12:51uh to guess that you know he is being sent to try to jump start uh relations right um there was just

00:13:02another meeting in istanbul um at a diplomatic technical level that is going through the arduous

00:13:11process of correctly restoring diplomatic function between the two countries that were down to

00:13:20skeleton crews and and harassment of you know uh of the diplomats and everything and they're they're

00:13:27they're negotiating things like russia demand is demanding the diplomatic um territory that was

00:13:36you know according to you know you know the russian point of view um illegally seized uh under

00:13:42international law by the united states by the then obama administration um and um there's also a

00:13:51question of banking like like simply for the diplomats to be able to you know um have an account and buy

00:13:59things and and and so forth and um uh the americans uh for they want the right to hire russians

00:14:09citizens to work at the russian uh at the u.s embassy in moscow again because these are you know

00:14:17boring things for most people right i mean that's not whether you're you're tuning in to hear about

00:14:25the conflict and geopolitics and u.s and russia right now are haggling over banking rights uh for

00:14:33diplomatic uh you know units and and um uh hiring um locals to do um embassy functions and things like

00:14:44that i mean that's what's going on and as far as any peace settlement goes right that's dead i mean i

00:14:50i mean the first ceasefire quote unquote the electrical energy infrastructure uh the care

00:14:56regime is is essentially violating it if not every day than every other day and i i think i saw a

00:15:02headline uh today that they violated it five times the day before right uh so obviously that's you know

00:15:10russia is still going through the motions i guess with the intent of pleasing trump and or proving to

00:15:18him that yeah we're we're serious about this ceasefire we're but the reality is of course is that russia

00:15:24doesn't need to hit the care regime's energy infrastructure it usually launches its missile salvos

00:15:31with like a month uh in between them right when it does assessment and finds out you know what it

00:15:37heat needs what they are able to repair what they're not what is able need to hit next so 30 days you

00:15:43know they're they they can finish that up um you know and and then point out that it's the kiev regime

00:15:49who doesn't want peace the reality is is that no one wants peace except for the united states right at

00:15:55this moment right and they want peace to save a u.s proxy regime in kiev that's why they want peace

00:16:01because they lost this war the u.s nato the kiev regime proxies lost this war against russia or

00:16:09if not lost it are well on the way to losing it right with with no real hope of altering uh that

00:16:17capability unless some type of deal is cut right some peace settlement to save it that's why russia

00:16:23the kiev regime europe you know they all want peace but only on their own terms right if it's not

00:16:29their terms they have no interest in peace and so um the black sea initiative uh the the grain uh deal

00:16:383.0 right russia asked what russia asked for is okay when there was an original grain deal we were

00:16:47promised uh a degree of of concessions from the west things like uh reconnecting russia's agricultural

00:16:56bank uh to swift um uh making it possible to get maritime insurance uh for its ships because well

00:17:05you know if the issue is getting grain to the to the world especially the developing world yeah ukraine

00:17:12is the the was the fifth biggest exporter of grain in the world you know when this all started russia's

00:17:17number one right they have a lot more grain right a lot more a lot more they're also number one in

00:17:23fertilizer by the way and these other things and they're like you know if this is supposedly out of

00:17:28humanitarian concern for the world food markets we're all we're all on board that but uh yeah

00:17:33we're a much bigger part of that than ukraine so you need to stop your you know um uh all your uh

00:17:40sanctions instruments that inhibit us from getting our uh grain and fertilizer to global markets that need

00:17:49it our our agricultural products and the west of course never fulfilled those agreements right once

00:17:55again you know they they broke the terms of a deal brokered with russia and laughed all the way to the

00:18:01bank right um now this but the europeans uh are refusing to meet any of these conditions right and the swift

00:18:13banking system is in belgium and europe has considerable say along with the us and what

00:18:18happens there and uh the question of maritime insurance that's mostly out of london right you

00:18:24know that they still run the majority now russia and india and other countries have been getting into it now

00:18:30but it would make it much easier to be done uh via the big established uh insurance uh giants in the

00:18:37field that are more uh say reputable or or uh you know uh have a degree of trust you know long long

00:18:48term business and and so you know uh the uk said no right and the same issue with ports and the like so

00:18:56that's also dead in the water the europeans are stymied that and right now there is no scheduled meeting

00:19:03that i'm aware of that i don't think anyone's reported on between russia and the u.s uh between

00:19:11officials of russia and the u.s to discuss the conflict in ukraine they're not they're not doing

00:19:16that right russia and the u.s are working on improving bilateral relations that's with this

00:19:25meeting in istanbul a second meeting on the issue of of diplomatic work restoring basic diplomatic functions

00:19:32uh that's what that's about and russia is considering these two tracks right on one hand

00:19:39it's bilaterally improving relations with the u.s as much as is possible taking this window of

00:19:46opportunity with the trump administration right and on the other hand is a diplomatic settlement of

00:19:53the conflict in ukraine right and as far as russia's concerned there is there is it should only be

00:19:59limited overlap between those two issues and if this one doesn't work out well we should still try

00:20:06to improve relations otherwise because there's a whole bunch of other things crises in the world

00:20:11that russia and the u.s should and really need to talk to each other about like the the u.s threats of

00:20:18of bombing iran right unless yeah iran agrees to a deal with the man who ripped up the last deal that iran

00:20:28had with with nuclear deal with the united states right the jcpoa so you know russia you know can

00:20:38serve as as an intermediary in that regard they are a new improved strategic partner of iran

00:20:46so russia is making the condition and i think to you know to talk about what witkoff is doing here right

00:20:54with the bilateral relations bogged down in the minutia of restoring basic diplomatic functions right and

00:21:06um the peace the ceasefires the peace you know settlement going nowhere and the russians

00:21:13increasingly saying well look you're not even talking about the root causes of the conflict we're not

00:21:19interested in a general ceasefire right that doesn't you know uh do proper work and that you

00:21:26know at least towards that right we're not you're not even talking about that so i think russians see

00:21:32that this the lack of experience or lack also i would have to say of a unified position within the trump

00:21:42administration on the issue of the conflict in ukraine leaves the thing it's dead in the water right now and

00:21:48i think witkoff is making some personal appeal to putin he's meeting putin personally and you know

00:21:57that's that's something because who is witkoff he's the new york real estate developer right he's not a

00:22:02diplomat he's not a minister he's not a president he's he's he's trump's gopher right he's or if you

00:22:09want his his trusted personal envoy that that is getting to meet the russian president again according to

00:22:18some reports and i i think that that you know trump is increasingly getting desperate it doesn't seem

00:22:26that everything he's doing is working out so well this his uh global war of tariffs on the world yeah

00:22:34he's walking it back now except for on china after not not just the u.s uh stock market but i think

00:22:42perhaps more importantly the bond market tanked right the the value of the dollar fell everything

00:22:49and now he's like yeah i'm gonna give you a 90 day extension on that right 90 days and they could

00:22:56extend that even further than 90 days except for china because china china china and china resisted us

00:23:03and replied uh tariffs back tit for tat and that that really made trump angry because you know the the

00:23:11other superpower in the world was just supposed to bow down and to to use trump's words to describe how

00:23:19the the leaders of most of the world were coming to him to quote unquote kiss my ass and promise me

00:23:28anything sir sir please remove these sanctions that is the contemptuous way that the president of the

00:23:34united states spoke about nearly every other the leader of nearly every other country in the world

00:23:41um that's not going so well um you know the his threats uh to bomb iran yeah iran is talking

00:23:51now but i i i really doubt that they're going to get what they want from iran right uh because

00:24:00well nominally what people are talking about is they want iran doesn't have an active nuclear weapons

00:24:07program right they enrich uranium with they have a nuclear domestic industry which is their right

00:24:15under international law under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty as a non-nuclear country

00:24:22um but the us and israel you know are now saying i you can't have any nuclear enrichment whatsoever

00:24:30right you you you you you're you're you're because you're iran and we don't like you um and so and

00:24:37that would supposedly prevent breakout but i think also that what the the trump administration wants is

00:24:47it wants to demand that iran stops any relationship any support for the ar-ansala movement in yemen for

00:24:57the houthis for hezbollah in lebanon for kataib hezbollah in iraq uh and in syria

00:25:07they they want them to to knock everything off right and of course they want iran to drop the

00:25:14axis of resistance right you know the their support for uh shias you know throughout the middle east and

00:25:21iran of course is not going to do that so that that also leaves those negotiations uh uh in in uh

00:25:30jeopardy shall we say in in a point of tension and well i have to say that my gut i reading trump is

00:25:39hard right and god knows i've been wrong uh about trump about some specific things in the last few

00:25:46months oh i i think overall uh uh i wouldn't say that i've been terribly off the mark just just at

00:25:56various points along the line but it is difficult but i think he's bluffing uh i think he's bluffing

00:26:03i don't think he wants a war in the middle east right uh i don't think the u.s has enough air defense

00:26:10missiles now to fight iran right uh with iran able with a significant missile and drone capability that

00:26:19they have demonstrated that can reach out and hit every u.s military base the hundreds of them

00:26:26you know uh in the middle east and in the area uh israel uh and and so forth and uh i don't think the

00:26:34u.s can defend uh them right uh they can say certainly can't defend israel um from from a

00:26:41concentrated and you know iran has their own nuclear option of mining or otherwise blocking

00:26:49traffic through the persian gulf which would you know tank the world uh well not tank but raise uh oil

00:26:59prices you know through the roof right because uh so much of the uh daily oil trade in the world

00:27:05goes through the persian gulf so i i don't think trump really wants that trump trump seems pretty

00:27:12focused if you check you know this this supposedly leaked u.s threat assessment and everything they

00:27:20want to be laser focused on china right that that's what they see as the threat they want the stuff in

00:27:26ukraine to go away but they can't seem to come up with a an actual way to save face and u.s interests

00:27:36and get out of that right uh they they don't they want iran to just quiet down in the middle east

00:27:44so that they can then deal with china right that's what they want to focus on but that's what every

00:27:50u.s president has wanted since obama uh since his pivot to asia and every one of them gets bogged down

00:27:58in the middle east and with russia and everything else and then that that military pivot to confront

00:28:04china never quite happens right um and if the u.s began air uh missile strikes on iran

00:28:13that any potential war with china in the taiwanese straits and the south china sea that the u.s might

00:28:21seek to provoke there china just got a five or ten more years to to prepare because the u.s you know

00:28:30would exhaust i i think they're all right we already know how short they are again particularly this this

00:28:36achilles heel of a shortage of air defense missiles and that that for a system that the patriot that i think

00:28:42has serious questions as to its actual effectiveness uh as as demonstrated in ukraine uh as well so i i

00:28:52think trump he's flailing domestically right now um with uh you know the so much upheaval coming as a

00:29:02result of the tariffs walking back some tariffs but you know u.s consumers are going to feel the bite

00:29:10just of this 10 across the board tariffs and the i don't know the 5 billion percent what is it 125 now

00:29:20or 145 against uh china uh amazon ceo just put out a warning 70 percent of amazon's goods are sourced from

00:29:34china wow 70 yeah 70 um so obviously the u.s consumer is going to be feeling the bite very soon

00:29:46right and you know trump's got to win midterm elections if he doesn't win midterm elections

00:29:52then you know his he won't be able to get much done for the next uh uh you know the the remaining two

00:29:59years of his administration he'll be probably be fighting another impeachment right no um because

00:30:05that's the law fair the way the u.s works now so um he's he's gotta find some way to to salvage the

00:30:15diplomat the um domestic situation uh he's got uh he wants to pivot to to china um but now he's looking at

00:30:25a trade war with china uh developing and it's quite seems pretty clear that what he really

00:30:30wanted was china to just bow down and cut a deal with him on his terms i don't know why he thought

00:30:37that the chinese would do that but he the man is you know i i don't think hubris is his literal middle

00:30:48name but you know it really should be he is a self-aggrandizing narcissistic megalomaniac you know and

00:30:58that's being nice um so um he he's just got a lot of problems and it would be nice if he could get

00:31:08some type of progress on this ukraine thing right and all the time russia's like yeah yeah

00:31:14uh hard diplomatic work ahead months and months small small steps right you know and he's getting

00:31:22frustrated he thought he was gonna have a handshake and a deal and the war would be over and a u.s

00:31:28proxy regime saved and putin would be happy just to be invited back to the club you know and that's

00:31:36mark let let me read what he has tweeted what he has put on his social media it says russia has to get

00:31:43moving too many people are dying thousands thousands a week in a terrible and senseless war what to which

00:31:53direction he wants to move russia he wants russia to move and what is that direction in the mind of the

00:31:59trump administration and trump himself he wants a ceasefire he wants a a period where the guns stop

00:32:08so that the west can rearm and resupply and and you know they can continue to mobilize and and save

00:32:15the kiev regime that's what he wants oh the people are dying yeah the people are dying in yemen too

00:32:20because you're bombing them right and you're threatening to bomb iran don't give me this

00:32:25bleeding heart don't don't pretend that trump is some type of humanitarian that's that's just sick

00:32:31right we're talking about the guy who assassinated qasem soleimani in iraq with a number of top iraqi

00:32:39generals uh by the way as well right that i just this trump is a peacemaker is just absolute pablum

00:32:47right i mean you really have to be a a trump fanboy mindless drone to take any of that seriously uh

00:32:57but that's what he wants right he he he wants a deal that will you know maybe frozen conflict you

00:33:04know uh a ceasefire leading to a frozen conflict to give time for the situation to change and for him

00:33:11to focus on other things because he doesn't want to deal with this you know russia's not interested in

00:33:17that russia right russia's been very specific they're not interested they they they want a the a

00:33:26final settlement that meets all the terms of the smo and solves the what they regard as the core causes

00:33:34of the conflict before the guns stop right uh and trump wants the opposite so uh they're kind of at

00:33:42loggerheads and russia is preparing to launch major offensives in the next month or two right uh we're

00:33:51going to see huge numbers of new troops the kev regime says that russia has 150 000 troops and 15

00:33:59divisions right trained up equipped not yet part of the smo but waiting right uh so um i think it's

00:34:10very likely that they will be injected the ukrainians kev regime certainly thinks so uh the the question is

00:34:16where zaporozhia sumi region you know somewhere else right you know these are all possibilities

00:34:21and a lot of it depends on where the kev regime shuffles what troops it has left around the

00:34:26battlefield and so forth uh but russia is yeah we'll talk but we're going to continue fighting right

00:34:33you know um they don't buy you know the the trump is insisting oh but in order for any diplomatic work

00:34:39to happen there has to be a ceasefire no that's not true at all i mean it wasn't true when you

00:34:45negotiated to deal with the taliban in afghanistan it wasn't true in vietnam or korea for the united

00:34:51states either negotiations in in vietnam went on for years while fighting went on uh so no that's not

00:34:58true we're not going to give you you know we've been down this road before minsk one minsk two you just

00:35:06you know uh uh retrain and rearm and and uh you know uh come back again that's not going to happen

00:35:12this time and the europeans the the at least the british and the french are threatening that as soon

00:35:18as there is a ceasefire they're going to put their troops i.e nato troops uh on the ground in in ukraine

00:35:26right russia's and i think part of that calculation is of course um saying that um well they know that

00:35:35russia would never accept that and they want to prevent any ceasefire from happening that's why

00:35:41they're so loudly talking about this even as british generals british brass speaking to the

00:35:49telegraph on condition of anonymity said that this is political theater and they have no ability to send

00:35:57troops that could deal with russia on the ground in ukraine right and you mean at best human tripwire but

00:36:03even then there's there's a question about their ability to even sustain a human tripwire deployment

00:36:12uh in in ukraine that's how bad the british and french militaries really are i mean you can call

00:36:19them paper tigers but that's not right because even on paper they look like i don't know decrepit

00:36:24yorkies something right some kind of disabled yorkie i don't know so um you know trump is is is uh

00:36:33desperate he he he wants some type of deal but russia's in the driver's seat right you know he's

00:36:40himself has at times admitted that russia has all the cards uh and they're they're not interested in

00:36:47helping trump save face or pivot to deal with other issues domestically or elsewhere that he would

00:36:54rather deal with um so russia is yeah we'll talk but in the meantime until we get what we want we're

00:37:03just going to continue on the battlefield and uh putin spoke to a group of sailors uh in mermansk

00:37:12a couple of weeks ago and he spoke about um we have we think it is possible right there's a there's a

00:37:21probable chance that we could finish the kiev regime forces off this year right those were the very

00:37:29specific language uh that he was using right uh so you know that that of course leaves trump uh in a

00:37:38bind what does he do right does does he escalate to de-escalate how how does he do that right more

00:37:46sanctions you could go from 18 000 and some to 19 000 in some russia's you know not really it's all

00:38:00pointless at this point right all sanctions are now is sanctioning the rest of the world

00:38:08right secondary sanctions to try to force them to stop trading with russia it hasn't worked out so

00:38:15well it's not that countries defy it it's just they work around it right loopholes are always found

00:38:22loopholes are are always made whether we're talking india or china or you know uh the global south whoever

00:38:29even the greek um uh uh oil industry you know the shipping they they they find ways of that ships run

00:38:38into each other in the middle of the night and some some oil is just transferred from one ship to the

00:38:45other and that sort of things happen so um and militarily i mean what what else does the u.s have that the

00:38:55the the assessment from the director of national intelligence the the group assessment of u.s

00:39:05intelligence across the board came to the conclusion that there is no current or future weapons package

00:39:15that the u.s could deliver to ukraine that would change the fact that russia has the advantage uh a

00:39:26severe advantage on the battlefield that was admitted you know by uh the the by the office of the director

00:39:33of national intelligence just a few weeks ago so i mean the trump administration is aware of that

00:39:39they can make things tougher they can drag things out they can make it bloodier but at the end of the

00:39:44day they're not going to change that reality the reality of a war of attrition where russia's military

00:39:52industrial complex is geared up and outperforming the entirety of the west the entirety of nato by

00:40:00as mark ruda has pointed out by more than three times and uh the russian troops are motivated right

00:40:09sirsky just admitted uh today that the size of the russian military is growing right every month

00:40:20by several thousand troops right i mean that that's net you know um uh you know uh losses new troops coming

00:40:29in uh and they're they're growing by several thousand troops uh every month uh and you know of course you

00:40:38you know he's lamenting that they can't really keep up with that so you know i i don't think that

00:40:44there's really i i think that both sides particularly the trump administration will go through the motions

00:40:52of continuing um you know talks about ceasefires about peace settlement and everything but at the end

00:41:01of the day putin is very politely saying yet he's saying no to trump and trump would like to walk away

00:41:10but that he's simply no u.s president not even him no matter how much contempt he has for zelinski no

00:41:17matter how much contempt he has for europe's leadership right no matter how much he doesn't

00:41:23care about ukraine in the big scope of things he's still the u.s president and he can't accept russia's

00:41:30terms right the regime is a u.s proxy state and he has to find some way i'm sure that it's that some

00:41:36part of him would like to walk away wash his hands say this is biden's mess but uh he hasn't given any

00:41:45any real indication that he has that political will that he would be willing to expend the necessary

00:41:55amount of domestic political capital to do that so uh then you know that leaves him in a bind and the

00:42:04conflict goes on and it will go on you know for some time even without the u.s uh sending new weapons

00:42:10packages right the u.s is still sending arms to ukraine every month right because a great deal of

00:42:18these arms packages that biden sent were not just for things off the pentagon's shelves but long-term

00:42:26contracts uh with the u.s military industrial complex that as it's produced monthly it gets

00:42:33sent over uh to ukraine you know whether we're talking ammunition vehicles drones you know

00:42:39whatever that's that's ongoing and the europeans are talking about accelerating things and i don't

00:42:46know whether we can but but germany just promised another uh multi-billion dollar uh military package

00:42:54to ukraine uh in the last 24 hours now you read the details of that that is through 2029 right and

00:43:07i don't know if there is going to be a ukraine left in 2029 to be perfectly honest right uh but

00:43:14they're they're they're they're still have the intention of sending of of keeping trying to make up

00:43:21for the u.s if the u.s doesn't deliver any new aid packages again it could take things longer make

00:43:28things bloody or more costly for russia but you know unless they get a black swan then then you know

00:43:37which is essentially i guess what they're hoping for um one thing i wanted to to bring up uh back on the

00:43:46issue of tariffs and the this mafia style way of dictating forcing negotiations to right trump is has

00:44:01figured out that the neoliberal globalization that the u.s this the the system that the u.s built

00:44:10globally over decades right free trade system doesn't work for u.s interests anymore i mean that's

00:44:17that's been known for quite some time capital flows moving from west to east u.s companies you know

00:44:24running to asia and source of cheaper labor you know uh so forth and so on the collapse of u.s

00:44:30manufacturing and industry seeing being laid perfectly clear in this conflict and their inability to

00:44:37jump start uh of their military industrial complex to meet this challenge um that um the u.s uh you

00:44:47know is just demanding that the rest of the world renegotiate the terms of global trade to benefit the

00:44:55u.s now all right and it's a it's a mafia you want to call it mad man theory you know where trump says

00:45:03plays mad and everyone will according to him come running and kiss his ass um

00:45:10it's he has reached the conclusion that u.s hegemony right is too expensive right um and what's one of

00:45:22the most interesting details about that is it's emerging that the thought inside the uh trump white

00:45:30house inside the trump admin is not that the u.s should therefore give up the pursuit of hegemony and

00:45:38primacy it's that the rest of the world should pay for it and be glad to pay for it right um and this

00:45:47was put out by uh mirin whom is uh trump's uh the chairman of trump's the the council of ekinosipa uh

00:45:56economic policy advisors right and he spoke this week in defense of the tariffs and about the tariffs

00:46:04and he said that they were to collect money right to read this renegotiation of global trade

00:46:10on u.s terms is to pay for u.s global public goods right uh that the rest of the world should help

00:46:21burden pay the the you know the the burden sharing cost of and what they identified is number one the

00:46:30u.s military its network of hundreds of military bases around the world you know the ones that they

00:46:36send in the countries willy-nilly you know whenever they feel like it that's that's a global public good

00:46:43and the rest of the world should pay for their military overmaster right uh and the second was

00:46:50the use of the dollar as the global reserve currency that's expensive that requires the u.s to run

00:46:58um uh trade deficits and the like and that's too expensive right and you should pay the rest of the

00:47:05the world should pay the u.s for the privilege of using the dollar right that's now never mind that

00:47:13trump himself has threatened to destroy bricks if they dare to even think about creating an alternative

00:47:21currency and everyone has to have the dollar force that contradiction of course never really uh occurs to

00:47:27them and the fact that they can run 37 trillion dollar national deficits uh and onto the moon because

00:47:41the the uh dollar is you know the currency of global trade still for well not for russia anymore but

00:47:47for much of the rest of the world um you should pay for that privilege that's what they're saying that's

00:47:53what the tariffs are for the tariffs are so that the u.s can continue in the role as hegemon and in pursuit

00:48:00of primacy but the rest of the world should pay for it that is such so much hubris so

00:48:13it just boggles the mind right that i mean that that they think it is one thing but then they come out

00:48:19and say it openly is um you know i know some people had hoped that the trump administration would

00:48:30represent some kind of break with the past and there's been some break in methodology right but

00:48:36ultimately again the u.s doesn't the trump administration doesn't even intend to abandon hegemony

00:48:43they just want to force the rest of the world to pay for it so as far as i'm concerned

00:48:49battle lines are drawn now the chinese are stepping up to the plate as well

00:48:56mark you mentioned the case of yemen we know that in yemen donald trump has decided to go and fight

00:49:04them they say this time is going to be different we're not going to fight the way that the biden

00:49:10administration was implementing was doing it's it's going to be something different and we know that

00:49:17they tried everything against them and short of nuclear bombs and even bunker buster bombs they

00:49:25tried they they have failed and cnn reported one billion dollars they have used in in a short

00:49:33period of time and not just one billion dollars but one billion dollars worth of missiles

00:49:41and air defense missiles that the u.s is already short of both on and can't afford right continuing to

00:49:52supply ukraine right on one hand a war with iran on the other continuing to play whack-a-mole in the

00:50:00desert against the houthis oh we're supposed to be preparing to solve this missile gap with china

00:50:06u.s is militarily overstretched right and this senseless game of whack-a-mole against the houthis the the

00:50:20missiles and the air defense missiles that are expended and have not stopped the houthis from continuing

00:50:29to launch their own strikes you know on uh israeli uh allied shipping or or um on israel itself

00:50:40um i don't i don't see what's different myself i i i can't identify uh anything that that is different

00:50:48i mean if they think that they're going after more general targets it hasn't had any effect yet

00:50:54right i mean it's killed more yemenis but that just generates more willing our onslaught movement

00:51:02you know recruitments right i mean that's the same problem that that uh israel is having in gaza

00:51:10yes they've they've been going after hamas for you know uh over a year now you know you know going on two

00:51:19years and has that significantly reduced hamas's numbers no because for every israeli civilian they

00:51:26kill or a palestinian civilian they kill they just generate two or three more hamas members um

00:51:35that that's the same thing here the houthis have endured years of u.s backed saudi and uae bombing and

00:51:46airstrikes and everything on their country and they took it and they know how to hide things they

00:51:52know how you know and to distribute things and you can take out a launcher here and this there and

00:52:01they're already the poorest country in the world and no one can deal with them militarily uh it's

00:52:08they were sure they were short of targets in yemen that's why donald trump should

00:52:13share a video that they were killing civilians yeah it's unbelievable i i don't know what they think

00:52:21i i have heard repeatedly they have launched this this rumor has been leaking out of washington that

00:52:29they're considering considering sending ground troops into yemen

00:52:34i i i i imagine in the kremlin they're just like

00:52:45do it do it

00:52:49beijing right do it right everyone's like yeah yeah you you you need to get uh stuck in another middle

00:52:57east quagmire like that right i i don't i i can't believe i want to say that i don't believe the

00:53:03trump administration is stupid enough to do something like that but hey they just launched

00:53:09tariffs against the world and were forced to walk them back within a week so i i um i can't even

00:53:17say that you know maybe they will maybe you know they they actually could i i don't think it's likely but

00:53:24i think the pentagon would try to talk them out of it because they're they're a little more level

00:53:29headed to a degree um but um the us has just has too many problems they're too overstretched they've got

00:53:38this this particularly again their their achilles heel right now for the u.s military is their shortage and

00:53:46their inability in the short term probably through the medium term to ramp up the production of missiles

00:53:56and air defense missiles right that they both need for a conflict with iran for a conflict with china

00:54:04or to continue uh escalating a conflict with russia in ukraine uh they're they're overstretched and then

00:54:13their military industrial complex is not up to meeting that challenge now and they can't even

00:54:20beat the houthis um and they think that they're gonna take on china and the taiwanese straits in the

00:54:27south china sea and that's that's uh it's madness it's it's uh it's just divorced it's a divorce from

00:54:36reality and an unwillingness to admit that the the us is just not a hyper power anymore not in relation to

00:54:47to the rest of the world there's been too much proliferation of missile technology and drone technology

00:54:54and ais and everything else it's a it's a new military world um and the u.s just you know they can be

00:55:04first among equals and still not able to defeat the houthis in yemen that's you know uh says something

00:55:15about about the state of warfare in the world and how much state power can be brought to bear on any

00:55:23particular problem with the goal of solving ultimately a political issue doesn't work so well

00:55:34right after we've learned that there are going to be some sort of talks i don't know direct or indirect

00:55:40whatever that would be between russia between the united states and iran in oman we had on april

00:55:498th we had a meeting among russia china and iran they were talking about nuclear program of iran and

00:55:57tomorrow it's going to be the meeting between the two parties in oman and today with cup which is

00:56:04responsible for the talks is in russia do you think that he is going to demand something in the case of

00:56:10iran he's going to try to i don't know convince pun try to say that this gonna let's let's talk on the

00:56:20issue of iran let's coordinate on the issue of iran how do you see that yeah i i i think it's quite

00:56:26possible you know again that that trump realizes how much he needs russia and he is looking for

00:56:36leverage or for russia to not use leverage uh in this in this particular situation uh if they start

00:56:45using words like demand well that's gonna be a mistake i mean that that is not the way uh it's

00:56:53going to work uh russia and iran have a new and improved strategic partnership it was just ratified by

00:56:59the russian uh senate um uh in the last uh 24 hours um so um if trump is smart or any of his people are

00:57:13smart that wikoff will be coming hat in hand and asking for russian assistance right on this you know

00:57:21and russia doesn't want iran to have nuclear weapons but what they're providing iran with

00:57:28uh as uh most people assess as part of their strategic partnership is a conventional deterrent

00:57:38in the form of russia helping iran build up an air defense and electronic warfare network in the

00:57:44country now of course the us and israel are furious about that uh but you know they're not going to

00:57:51get everything they want in iran if they they think they are they're they're badly mistaken so um could

00:57:58there be some type of deal struck right is that is that what whitkoff is there you know uh we'll we'll

00:58:06do this on ukraine if you do this on iran um russia doesn't like these sort of things these promises

00:58:17behind the back this week and then the nod right the gorbachev um you know was promised such things about

00:58:26the expansion of nato and the like and uh you know we all know how that ended and i i think russia is

00:58:33um would demand uh a lot more than promises from the trump administration right and they're not likely

00:58:42to sell out iran they're willing to deal as a mediator with iran right uh but they will do that from from

00:58:52a different level not you know soul selling them out you know in the back alley uh that's that's not

00:58:59what russia i think would do at all um but um what

00:59:13putin could you know get out of this again is you know you want our help on this you want our help

00:59:21negotiating with iran and saving yourself another war and some face there well then you need to walk

00:59:28away from ukraine we don't we don't care how you do that that is maybe something that is being

00:59:36discussed i would think that probably the reality is not quite that big and sexy the reality is probably

00:59:42on a lower level of of that rather than you know such general terms but um you know we'll we'll we'll

00:59:52find out going forward yeah hey it's just it's not just the case of the case of iran it's the case of

01:00:00ukraine it was the case of ukraine if you remember the way that the biden administration somehow was

01:00:08forcing iran and china especially not to help russia during the conflict in ukraine they did everything

01:00:17they sent a lot of people officials to the to china to talk with them and but mark in my opinion what's

01:00:28going on the the the main target is china is we know that what's going on in ukraine how important

01:00:40ukraine is for russia and what's important for iran and what's going on in with iran in the middle east

01:00:47but when you see the links all get to beijing all get to china and the competition they want to

01:00:56weaken they they wanted to weaken russia which wasn't working we didn't work and right now it seems

01:01:04that the middle east we know that how important middle east is in terms of the security for russia and china

01:01:13how well yeah exactly china that's why i'm talking about the main target is china

01:01:21i would wonder how china sees this this sort of position of the united states in the middle east

01:01:29well i mean i think you're you're you're seeing where china is by their quit you know their quid pro quo

01:01:37uh tit for tat uh tariff hikes right now now up to 125 on u.s goods china is in a fighting mood

01:01:47right as i mean when i say fighting i don't know of course that literally mean war right i don't think

01:01:53that's necessarily right on the cards but they're not going to kowtow or deal with the trump administration

01:02:01right in fact i think they probably correctly believe that if they showed any weakness whatsoever

01:02:08that trump would just work to exploit and take advantage of that or you know read it as weakness

01:02:13and you know rather than a uh you know willingness to uh you know negotiate to find you know um zero

01:02:23some options and and you know you know positive for everyone that sort of thing that the chinese uh

01:02:30love talking about but the real question is of course can you separate russia and china

01:02:39or russia and china and iran now right i mean again it is all goes back to this uh clip of joe biden uh

01:02:51in the 90s then as uh on the senate foreign relations committee this this video that's out um uh probably

01:02:59most of of the people out there watching this have already seen this where joe biden was laughing about

01:03:07pushing then then nato expansion down russia's throat and that the russians had came to him and

01:03:13said well if you keep doing this we're gonna have to turn to china and he thought that was funny

01:03:19it's like he turned to china right like are you serious right what are you gonna turn to iran next

01:03:26right you know we're the only game in town you've got no one else to go to you're just gonna have to

01:03:31take it he thought that was funny right where are we today right is russia and china and iran

01:03:40have been pushed together by the united states and they keep looking for space they keep looking for

01:03:48a gap something to wedge into and exploit between russia and china and iran and in the last three years of

01:03:56the conflict in ukraine they haven't found it and they've been looking really hard for it right the

01:04:02bite administration's focus was on russia right they wanted to finish russia off and move on to china and

01:04:08ignore the middle east but that's that instead they ended up getting stuck uh on russia in ukraine and

01:04:15losing that but they couldn't get china to stop trading with russia they they couldn't get russia and iran

01:04:23were doing active have been doing active military exchange and cooperation now now strengthening you

01:04:29know as well as vastly improving economic relations with the north south corridor and and as well so um

01:04:38it's it's not a question of it's all about china because at this point it's not just china it's russia china

01:04:50and iran and and you know potentially some others as well and looking to try to find you know the light

01:04:59of day in between the three of them and they're having a hard problem and there's i think maybe

01:05:07at some level realizing the the geopolitical uh catastrophe that they have produced by pushing

01:05:17these three countries together you know rather than using a divide and conquer that nixon and kissinger

01:05:24did with this you know exploiting the sino-soviet split you know they tried to take on all three at

01:05:30the same time out of out of arrogance right out of belief that they didn't have to compromise with any

01:05:37one of them it's led them to this situation right and they want to go after iran they've got to deal with

01:05:44russia and they've got to consider china they want to you know a trade war with china well then now they

01:05:50have to consider their uh trade with russia uh and with iran they they they keep it's circular they keep

01:05:59looking uh you know for an in against one and they find themselves confronted always by the other two now

01:06:08right you know even without some type of formal alliance you know military alliance between the

01:06:15three that's that may not even be necessary um because they they just to such a high degree their

01:06:24foreign policy and their national interests have reached a point of of convergence and

01:06:30and it's really a question for that the entire world should regard that the stability you know

01:06:42primarily of the russian chinese bipolar uh relationship as the single most important

01:06:51bilateral relationship in the world right uh the foundation of a multi-polar world is the russian chinese

01:07:01partnership partnership and it the first extension of that is the russian chinese iranian partnership

01:07:09um and a multi-polar world will rise or sink on the stability of you know first the russian chinese

01:07:21relationship and then the the triad you know the uh tripole relationship of russia china iran and then

01:07:28eventually you know maybe other countries can be added into that but for instance um china directly

01:07:36spoke to india um over uh the last few days and said you need to so you should side with us

01:07:45against trump's trade war and the indians are like crickets chirping uh we're gonna cut a deal behind

01:07:54closed doors with the us and we think we'll have a deal with with the autumn but good luck with that

01:07:59good luck good luck with that right um so uh india is not at a place yet where they are willing to

01:08:10break with the west and contribute to the stability of that multiple maybe someday they will be but

01:08:16they're not there now that's for sure uh they're still trying to have it good both ways and and and

01:08:23they can't um brazil is too far afield geopolitically too concerned with with uh domestic matters it it

01:08:35seems to me lula's options are tied he doesn't want to become the object of u.s wrath so brazil is mostly

01:08:44mostly staying quiet but every once in a while they they get demands from the u.s like to provide

01:08:50artillery shells to ukraine and lula's throws him the finger when when he can what he can do and and the

01:08:57like brazil of course is not in the same position as russia or china so they they have to be more careful

01:09:07but you know there there is potential and we're looking forward uh to a moment on may 9th uh which

01:09:17is victory day and it is it is the 80th anniversary of the defeat of nazi german germany and uh its european

01:09:29fascist allies um and uh he jinping is going to be there right the chinese leader and there are reports

01:09:43again uh that modi and uh lula will be there as well that is a significant show of strength by russia

01:09:56and of the multipolar world standing together uh i can't imagine i i think the the western press will

01:10:06probably mostly just try to ignore that whole thing and that not mention it they don't even like

01:10:12they don't even like to mention bricks right they just try not to talk about it i i think as well but

01:10:18that is going to be a moment and it's coming you know in it will be in the midst of what i'm sure will

01:10:27be an ongoing uh trade war um uh going on and uh it trump will be increasingly getting desperate not

01:10:37getting what he wants uh from russia on ukraine and um it will just be a a show of unity right um

01:10:48um and and and i think you know of a proper remembrance of history as well of course that's

01:10:55that's in there as well but i i think that will be an important event i think that will be as far as

01:11:01you know such symbolic events will go it will be an important one and uh it will show that there is

01:11:10a degree of unity uh between the bricks members right beyond beyond just rhetoric because all coming

01:11:20to moscow to stand together there's there's political capital that that will be expended in that

01:11:31let's see what would happen mark it seems that

01:11:33i'm not that much concerned i don't think that donald trump wants in the case of ukraine he wants

01:11:41to get out in i don't see as you mentioned i don't see they want a war with iran because

01:11:48they have this administration had the same experience that the biden administration had with the case of

01:11:54yemen they know what would be the disaster this is this this is just china just needs doesn't need to do

01:12:02anything just sitting and watching the united states melting down putin was just asked a question

01:12:10um about uh his position on this uh tariff war between uh you know the the well the global tariffs

01:12:20but in particular you know the tariff war developing between the us and china and he related a proverb um

01:12:28of um uh the uh monkeys uh uh looking down out of the tree uh and seeing two tigers fighting and uh you

01:12:42know the the one monkey says what should we do and you know the the the wise monkey uh you know says we

01:12:50should sit back and do nothing and you know let your your enemies self-destruct uh that

01:12:58that's uh in in this case of course you know uh russia of course does not see china as as an enemy but

01:13:05they're certainly not going to wade into this uh trade dispute uh as well they're not of course or

01:13:12they're not going to stop trade with china at at u.s demand either of course um they will give china

01:13:20in its moment of confrontation with the u.s you know an equal level of support that china gave russia

01:13:30over the last few years right now china will will become the tip of the spear perhaps instead of russia but

01:13:38this is all factored on trump though finding a way out of the ukraine mess and i'm not so sure that

01:13:50he will be able to find and maneuver his way out of that mess because he's still the u.s president and

01:13:57he the minute he became president he owned that war against russia right and he he doesn't want to

01:14:06continue it but he also doesn't want to lose and that's what it would be the u.s losing a war against

01:14:14russia so it's a very tough thing there is so much domestic and international political forces bent on

01:14:24the continuation of that conflict because they can't accept a russian victory right now can they avert it

01:14:34no that's that's not something that but you know pointing out that logical flaw is not something they

01:14:41will hope for a black swan that something will change until you know well past it's it's all over

01:14:50but they will not give in because it is it is ideological it is you know a question of exceptionalism

01:14:58and their view of themselves and their place in the world and what russia's and of course iran and

01:15:04china's proper place in that world is or is not so they they just can't accept uh a russian victory so

01:15:13they might want i once again to pivot to china uh but i think they're probably going to get stuck with

01:15:20russia and the middle east again just like the biden administration did yeah thank you so much mark

01:15:31for being with us today great pleasure as always yeah it's uh always uh it's always fun having a chat

01:15:38chat with your name thanks for having me yeah take care of mine bye-bye cheers

🌐 What’s Brewing? Russia, China & Iran CLOSER Than Ever 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇷 | Trump Tensions Boil Over - Mark Sleboda | Forbidden News

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