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00:00Let's meet this field here for the Kentucky Oaks, $1.5 million up for grabs for these three-year-old fillies.
00:08And just like with the Kentucky Derby, there was a series of qualifying races for these fillies.
00:13They had to pick up points along the way in order to get into this race.
00:17Alexa, we'll start things out with Early On, who comes into this race off of back-to-back second-place finishes in stakes races,
00:24in good races, behind Fonley and Ballerina D'Oro, a couple horses that are in the race.
00:28She goes out for a really good trainer, Safi Joseph Jr., who's one of the absolute best down in Florida.
00:35What do you think about Early On's chances?
00:37Yeah, Early On's an interesting horse.
00:39Like you said, been knocking on the door for a win.
00:42She had that second place by a nose in the Grade 3 Gazelle a month ago.
00:47Those races are probably easier than she'll be facing today.
00:51The one hole isn't super bad for her.
00:54For a lot of horses, you're not super happy when you draw the one hole, especially if you want to get out early.
00:59But for her running style, I'm not too worried about it.
01:02I do think this is going to be a bit too tough of a placement for her, though.
01:07And she'll be right inside of Simply Joking, who is probably going to be showing some speed, Alexa.
01:12She won her first two starts.
01:13Then in her third start, she was a really good second behind Quiet Side, who's the number 14 in this race.
01:18And we can see Simply Joking maybe improving off of that race because she hadn't run in a couple months.
01:25Yeah, and she has improved a lot.
01:27Like every time she's out of distance, every start, improved her speed figures.
01:32I think she's a real player in here.
01:34And one thing that's important to note, so we're supposed to get lots of interesting weather over the next couple days here in Kentucky.
01:42So it's likely going to be quite sloppy, quite rainy.
01:46And she has one in the slop.
01:48And a lot of horses don't like that.
01:49I mean, when you think about it, you're getting all the mud in your face.
01:52It can be hard to make up ground because when you think about, you know, your hooves, they're kind of, if it's muddy, it can be cuppy.
01:59Like, you know, like be hard to kind of stick to the ground.
02:03It can be hard to get that momentum going.
02:05So it does affect the pace setup and how races unfold.
02:08So you'd like to see a horse who has done well in the slop before.
02:12Fonley is the next one.
02:14She won the Virginia Oaks.
02:15So that was her big victory.
02:16And she's two for two.
02:18She hasn't done a whole lot, you know, wrong in her career, obviously.
02:21But this is a big step up, right?
02:23She's going to be facing a bigger field and a lot tougher.
02:25And she's gotten pretty easy trips in both of her races.
02:28She'll probably have to have a much different trip and really have to earn it in a race like this.
02:33Yeah, she really will.
02:34I mean, this is going to be a really different level of quality of horses that she's ever faced before.
02:40I did see her trainer, Motion, commented on her post position draw saying he was really happy about it.
02:47She does get Irad aboard, who's obviously one of the best jockeys out there.
02:51But she's just been running figures so much slower than the rest of the field.
02:55So I'll have to pass on her.
02:56She did slightly defeat fondly when they faced off against each other in the Virginia Oaks.
03:02The number four is Drexel Hill.
03:05And she's another one, Alexa, that I think is going to have to step up a little bit to be competitive with the top fillies in this race.
03:13I could see her at least being a horse who can pass some horses late because that's kind of her running style.
03:18She's a late runner.
03:19So maybe a lot of these horses that are tiring and backing up, she could be going by them.
03:23Maybe the type of horse you use in the bottom of your tries and supers.
03:26I don't think I could get her much higher than there, though.
03:29Yeah, I mean, you look at the morning line odds, which is a guess of what she'll actually go off at.
03:34And they've given her 30 to one or plus 3000.
03:36So not going to be favored in here.
03:39But, you know, switch to dirt in December after running exclusively on synthetic at Woodbine as a two-year-old.
03:45She has hit the board in five out of seven starts.
03:48Seems to be consistently improving.
03:50But like you're saying, still kind of a cut below the rest in here from a speed figure standpoint.
03:55This will also be a big distance test for her.
03:58You know, half of her races have been going less than a mile and never gone this far.
04:02So it's going to be tough.
04:04We continue on to Quick Kick, who is another closer.
04:08Not a horse that you'll see towards the front of the pack early.
04:11This is one who will be settled towards the back.
04:13Will be kind of relaxing back there and hope that others are going very fast early and they're battling it out.
04:19She's going to try to come and run them all down late.
04:22She just hasn't really been in the best of form.
04:24She's been pretty easily handled recently by Quiet Side and by Good Cheer,
04:28who are two of more of the top contenders in here.
04:30Can you give like a reason for her or make an excuse for her recent races?
04:35Well, her trainer is Tom Amos, who's a local trainer here in Kentucky at Churchill.
04:39And he has won the Oaks before with Serengeti Empress.
04:42So he does know what it takes.
04:44But I don't know.
04:46You know, she had that third place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Phillies in November.
04:49And she hasn't won since her second start last September.
04:55And I just don't feel like she's been progressing like I'd want her to see coming into this race.
04:59And she's lost to a number of common opponents today.
05:03So I do think it's going to be a really tough spot for her.
05:09Next couple, I think, are logical contenders here.
05:11And I do believe we have a replay that we can show you of Ballerina D'Oro.
05:16Last time out, Ballerina D'Oro won the Gazelle at Aqueduct, going a mile and an eighth,
05:22which is a real positive because that's the distance of the Kentucky Oaks.
05:25And it looked initially like right about this point of the race, Alexa, like she was just going to blow by.
05:31But she did get a little bit green.
05:34She's still kind of figuring it out.
05:36She had a hard time like really kind of straightening her stride and switching leads was what they call that,
05:41when you can really get the best out of your stride efficiently.
05:45But she still won, was able to win, even though she probably left a length or so out on the track.
05:52I think she's going to get a great setup in here, in a bigger field with a lot of fillies that are going to be on the lead or pushing each other towards the front end.
06:00I think she'll drop back.
06:01She'll make one late run.
06:03She'll go third start off the bench.
06:05I just, I think there's a lot of little things to like about her.
06:07What do you think about Ballerina D'Oro?
06:09You know, it's interesting.
06:10You mentioned the switching of leads.
06:12So like these horses are really young.
06:13You know, the Derby and the Oaks are for three-year-olds.
06:16They can't start their racing careers until two-year-old years.
06:20And a lot of them not until late in that year.
06:22So they really are learning with every start and switching of the leads.
06:26So a horse leads with one leg.
06:28And then when they go around that turn, they want to switch to lead with the other leg.
06:31And you'll see this kind of like burst of momentum, you know, around that stretch and through the stretch.
06:37And that's when a horse switches leads.
06:39And some horses, it comes really naturally.
06:41Some horses, it has to be trained into them a little bit more.
06:44So you see these green babies and they're learning it and they're figuring it out.
06:47So I think that race probably taught her a lot.
06:50I still think she'll need to step up, but I do not think it's out of her reach today.
06:55And right next door will be a horse who's probably going to be on the opposite end of the spectrum as far as style is concerned.
07:02If you look at La Cara, she's a number seven.
07:05We have her towards the front of that pace projector that we're looking at.
07:08She's kind of in the third spot.
07:10And her trainer has actually said, she's going to be on the lead.
07:13He said, we think she is really, really fast and she does her best on the lead.
07:17And this is her on the lead last time out when she won the Ashland and she crushed this group.
07:23This was an impressive race, Alexa.
07:24And she's going to be one of the horses they have to catch in here.
07:27Yeah.
07:28So this is the Ashland you're looking at, like you said.
07:29But then she won the Pocahontas as well.
07:32And that race looked so different.
07:33She closed.
07:34At Churchill.
07:35Right.
07:36Right.
07:36And so it's great to hear the trainer wants her on the lead, but also to see that she does have tactical speed.
07:42She is able to handle different pace scenarios.
07:45She's not this like one run horse who, if she doesn't get there, she has a little bit of trouble, you know, can't make up ground.
07:51So really talented.
07:52I think drew a nice post position for that versatile running style, especially if they want to send her to the lead.
07:58Didn't draw too far on the inside.
07:59So a horse to not ignore.