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00:00Let's talk about this next group of horses.
00:02The first one is American Promise.
00:04Adam, he is really fast.
00:06He won the Virginia Derby.
00:07We know that his trainer can win the Kentucky Derby.
00:09He's done it four different times.
00:11Any thoughts on American Promise and his chances in the Derby?
00:15Well, his trainer's got an excellent record,
00:17and we have to bear that in mind.
00:18The horse is two from nine.
00:19I thought the win at Colonial Downs, everything was perfect.
00:23It was a beautiful start.
00:24He got into a good rhythm.
00:26Now, his stride is what he'd want.
00:27We expect his stride to average 25.34 feet,
00:31based on our assessment of his previous form.
00:33You want a horse with a long stride to get themselves out of trouble in the Derby.
00:37Sorry, I called it the Derby.
00:38I should have said the Derby.
00:39You got it.
00:39You got it.
00:40I can't help it.
00:41But I'd just be concerned.
00:42His top speed last time was 42.37 miles an hour.
00:45That's good.
00:47But if you look at the horses in behind him, they were particularly slow.
00:50This is a big step up in class.
00:52I just felt when we looked at our expected rankings,
00:55we'd have his average speed.
00:56We'd have him ranked 20th.
00:58I think what will happen is he's got a stride that will keep him in contention.
01:02And then when they get into the home stretch, the class of the others will find him out.
01:06And I don't think he'll finish in the first five.
01:08Alexa, where did you have American Promise kind of stacked?
01:11Yeah, I have to agree.
01:12I also have to look at the record specifically at Churchill,
01:15where he's ran over it three times and faded in that long stretch every time.
01:19So I'm also passing on American Promise.
01:22Adam, drawn right next to each other are the two horses who come in that have actually run in Japan.
01:27We've seen the Japanese runners all over the world get so much stronger in the last few years,
01:31so much more competitive.
01:33Maybe it's the year that we have a Japanese runner win the Kentucky Derby.
01:37What can you tell us about Admire Daytona?
01:39I think we have a graphic to support some things about Admire Daytona.
01:43We do.
01:43I mean, Admire Daytona is one of a number of Japanese horses.
01:48The Japanese have really had a massive impact, particularly on the racing in Dubai over the winter.
01:52Admire Daytona won the UAE Derby 12 months ago.
01:55That was won by Forever Young, who went on to finish third in the Derby at Kentucky.
01:59So he's got to be of interest.
02:01The obvious point with him is that those drawn around him must be delighted that he's in Gate 6,
02:06because he is rapid from the start.
02:085.2 seconds to reach 30 miles an hour from the gate in Dubai.
02:12I've had cars that can't do that.
02:15This horse is going to get out in front.
02:16I'd imagine the connections of journalism and a few others will be looking at him as a potential target.
02:21Now, he's got quite a compact stride, less than 24 feet as an average.
02:25I don't think he has the ability to win the race.
02:27And we saw in Dubai, the petrol gauge was certainly flashing red in the closing stages
02:32as Heart of Honor was trying to run him down.
02:33He held on that day, but he's facing bigger and better horses in Kentucky.
02:38But what he is, is a pace angle.
02:40And I think he'll be in the first three or four around the opening bend to give the others something to run at.
02:44Alexa, the two horses from Japan are right next to each other.
02:47Admire Daytona and then Luxor Cafe.
02:50Do you have thoughts on those two?
02:52Yeah, Luxor Cafe is definitely my selection over the two Japanese horses.
02:57I think one thing I've seen in all of his running lines is that he takes command.
03:04And that kind of energy and ability in the derby, I think, is really important.
03:10Adam, if you have a thought or two on Luxor Cafe, and then we can move into your thoughts on the favorite journalism.
03:15Yeah, certainly.
03:16I mean, Luxor Cafe, we have a phrase in English racing called could be anything.
03:19And what that really means is punters and pundits don't really know.
03:23But this horse just won so impressively in Japan.
03:26I thought he was really impressive last time.
03:28Won 52.10 for nine furlongs, 62 kilometers an hour top speed.
03:32He's got the ability to be there.
03:34He's got the magic man, Jao Morera.
03:36That alone is worth a few pounds in my book.
03:38But there is a key point to make here about the race he won.
03:41That race was won in 2024 by a horse called T.O. Password.
03:46T.O. Password went on to finish fifth in the derby last year.
03:50Luxor Cafe was two seconds faster.
03:52Now, it's a different year.
03:55The surface will be slightly different.
03:56You can't read too much.
03:59But that time alone would make him of interest.
04:02And then the horse to beat is journalism.
04:04We only have a few seconds left, and we'll talk more about him throughout the show.
04:08But what do you like so much about him, Adam?
04:10When the boss sent me the email for this podcast and he said to me,
04:14you've got journalism, I was like, yes, that's the one I want.
04:16Big, long stride, 25.91 feet is his expected stride.
04:21That's big, and that's crucial.
04:23If you compare him to Admire Daytona, that means a full stride,
04:25he's going to take two feet out of Admire Daytona over every stride.
04:29The analogy I give to my kids when we're looking at racehorses is,
04:32think about Usain Bolt, the fastest man alive.
04:35It's no coincidence that he's very tall and he had a long stride.
04:38It's not as simple as that.
04:39I'm the same height as Usain Bolt, and there's no chance of me running that speed.
04:42But journalism is going to get the perfect toe into this.
04:45He's got the big, long stride.
04:47He's got the top speed.
04:48He needs the luck.
04:49He needs the gaps to come at the right time.
04:51But if they do, is he not just the best horse in this race by a distance?