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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - All right, we had the one horse get scratched yesterday.
00:05 We had a new horse move in.
00:07 I look at the odds every morning
00:09 to see where we're moving a little bit here.
00:11 It still seems to me like we have these two horses
00:14 at the top, Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
00:16 These are the two right now, right, David?
00:18 It's not gonna budge off of these.
00:21 Are you going anywhere beyond these two
00:22 or do you think that nobody's going near them?
00:25 - Yeah, they're expected to be the two likely favorites
00:27 sort of separating themselves from the pack
00:29 in the wagering.
00:30 Fierceness, really talented.
00:32 I think if he shows up, he's probably gonna win the race,
00:33 but he can be a little unreliable.
00:35 Sierra Leone, more reliable,
00:37 but he's gotta pass all these horses.
00:38 He's a deep closer who comes from the back of the pack.
00:40 I'm looking at a couple of alternatives.
00:42 One of them is the number seven, Honor Marie,
00:44 who's 20 to one on the morning line.
00:46 Just seems like a horse that's really cycling up
00:48 to his best ever coming into the derby.
00:50 Another horse that comes from towards the back,
00:52 like Sierra Leone, but going to be a much better price.
00:54 And the horse that I made my top pick
00:56 is actually the Japanese Invader,
00:58 the number 11, Forever Young.
00:59 He's never lost before.
01:00 He's run in Dubai, in Saudi Arabia, in Japan,
01:04 making his first start in the United States.
01:05 But I think this horse has a lot of attributes
01:07 that are gonna lend itself well to success
01:09 in the Kentucky Derby.
01:11 - All right, I have now checked that one off, Forever Young.
01:13 When I hear he's never lost a race before, David,
01:15 that always has me thinking we have to put a little bit
01:19 of something on that one.
01:20 What I also like about the derby every year is,
01:23 yes, we have our favorites at the top,
01:25 but you have a lot of horses in that 20 to 30 to one range.
01:30 We've seen some big hits over the last couple of years.
01:33 I wanna ask you about one,
01:34 only 'cause my partner Joe
01:35 has been talking about this horse all week.
01:37 So now I need to get your opinion on it.
01:39 And that is Catalytic, who's got Ortiz on him,
01:42 at the number five horse.
01:43 Give me a little something about Catalytic,
01:45 'cause my boy Joe got a shot with him.
01:47 - Well, Catalytic in his most recent race
01:49 lost to Fierceness, the favorite, by 13 lengths.
01:52 So that's a pretty wide margin.
01:53 He's got a lot to make up on that horse.
01:55 I think the good news with Catalytic is,
01:57 he's only run three times
01:58 and he's improved with every start.
02:00 So he does have some upside heading into the race.
02:02 He needs another big step forward,
02:03 but at a big price, you could do worse,
02:05 'cause he does have that ability
02:06 to take another step in the right direction.
02:09 - The next one, the four horse, Catching Freedom,
02:12 seems to also be right on that kind of tier
02:16 behind the two favorites.
02:17 Tell me a little bit about the four.
02:20 - Yeah, he's one that I definitely
02:21 have some interest in as well.
02:22 I mentioned liking the number seven, Honor Marie.
02:24 Well, Catching Freedom actually beat him
02:26 in his final prep race for the Derby down in Louisiana.
02:29 He made a big late run to go from last to first
02:31 in that race.
02:32 He's another one that seems to be cycling up
02:34 to one of his better efforts in the Kentucky Derby.
02:36 And he's got some of the top connections in the sport
02:38 in his corner in trainer Brad Cox and Flavien Pratt,
02:41 who seems to ride close to a winning race
02:43 in the Kentucky Derby just about every year.
02:45 (upbeat music)
02:48 [MUSIC]