📢 In this powerful economic and political analysis, renowned economists Richard Wolff and Michael Hudson join Dialogue Works to tackle the big question:
Is Trump winning the political and economic war? 🇺🇸📈
From the collapse of neoliberal narratives to the rise of populism, Wolff and Hudson offer a no-holds-barred look at:
💰 Trump’s impact on the economy
🌍 The global shift in political power
📉 The failures of establishment policies
🗳️ The 2024-2025 political landscape
🔥 Whether you support Trump or oppose him, this is a must-watch conversation packed with critical insights and honest debate.
💬 What’s YOUR verdict — is Trump gaining the upper hand? Drop your thoughts below 👇
🔔 Subscribe, like, and share for more deep dives with top global thinkers!
#RichardWolff
#MichaelHudson
#Trump2024
#IsTrumpWinning
#DialogueWorks
#USPolitics
#EconomicCollapse
#PoliticalAnalysis
#GlobalEconomy
#Populism
#TrumpVsBiden
#Neoliberalism
#WorkingClass
#TrumpDebate
#HudsonWolff
#PoliticalShift
#TrumpNews
#Election2024
#EconomicsTalk
#CriticalThinking
Is Trump winning the political and economic war? 🇺🇸📈
From the collapse of neoliberal narratives to the rise of populism, Wolff and Hudson offer a no-holds-barred look at:
💰 Trump’s impact on the economy
🌍 The global shift in political power
📉 The failures of establishment policies
🗳️ The 2024-2025 political landscape
🔥 Whether you support Trump or oppose him, this is a must-watch conversation packed with critical insights and honest debate.
💬 What’s YOUR verdict — is Trump gaining the upper hand? Drop your thoughts below 👇
🔔 Subscribe, like, and share for more deep dives with top global thinkers!
#RichardWolff
#MichaelHudson
#Trump2024
#IsTrumpWinning
#DialogueWorks
#USPolitics
#EconomicCollapse
#PoliticalAnalysis
#GlobalEconomy
#Populism
#TrumpVsBiden
#Neoliberalism
#WorkingClass
#TrumpDebate
#HudsonWolff
#PoliticalShift
#TrumpNews
#Election2024
#EconomicsTalk
#CriticalThinking
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00:00Hi, everybody. Today is Thursday, May 1st, 2025, and our friends, Richard Wolff and Michael Austin. Welcome back, Richard.
00:00:13Glad to be here.
00:00:17Richard, today, what's the importance of today?
00:00:22And you mentioned before coming on live, and I think you have something to say for all of us.
00:00:30Yes, well, May Day, the 1st of May each year, has traditionally been, for many, many, many years, a day devoted to celebrating the rights and the struggles and the losses and the gains of the working class around the world.
00:00:48In many countries, there will be parades and demonstrations in the major cities and beyond, in which labor unions, political parties associated with the working class show their strength, make their demands, celebrate their achievements.
00:01:08It's a working day, working class holiday, if you like.
00:01:14It began back in 1886, if my memory is correct, here in the United States, in Chicago in particular, when there was a major struggle and a demonstration, classic struggle of the working class.
00:01:32In that case, demanding an eight-hour work day, rather than the 10 or 12 hours that had become the norm, because capitalism, as Marx explains so beautifully in volume one of Capital, has a very great interest in making the length of the working day as long as physically and emotionally possible.
00:01:56He did the analysis to show why that is a profit maximizing activity on the part of the ruling class.
00:02:07And there were workers pushed back, and workers struggled, and it took them a long time.
00:02:14You know, there's a century in England called the struggle for the 10-hour day to get it down to 10, while this struggle in Chicago wanted to get it down further to 8.
00:02:26And in the course of that demonstration, somebody, it was never really shown who, started shooting.
00:02:34And the police started shooting, and when the dust cleared, several people had been shot.
00:02:42And there was an attempt by the local authorities to blame, quote-unquote, anarchists.
00:02:50That was the term of denunciation in those days.
00:02:54And the so-called anarchists were arrested and tried and found guilty, some of them, and executed.
00:03:03And it became a holiday to memorialize both the struggle and the repression and the sacrifices that had been made.
00:03:15And the real irony of the story is that even though it begins in a moment of intense class struggle of the United States,
00:03:24the post-World War II Cold War made it necessary for the United States Congress to not allow to change the date at which you celebrate workers from May 1st to the first Monday in September,
00:03:45what we call Labor Day, what we call Labor Day here in the United States, on a different date.
00:03:52And it has been largely neglected more and more over recent years.
00:03:58For example, when I was young, there was always a parade wherever I happened to live on Labor Day.
00:04:05Nowadays, in most of the cities of this country, nothing happens on Labor Day.
00:04:11The movement here, the labor movement, even the organized labor movement, doesn't have the personnel, the time, the space, the money to carry on that particular tradition.
00:04:24So it tells you something about the United States relative to the rest of the world to know a little bit about the May 1st holiday, both here and abroad.
00:04:37Michael, do you want to add something?
00:04:41I have nothing to add to that.
00:04:43Of course, when I grew up, many of my friends would go on demonstrations on May Day, but that was in the late 1940s and early 1950s.
00:04:55And it's just sort of evaporated now.
00:04:58Jumping into the what's going on right now, and with the new deal, mineral deal between the United States and Ukraine,
00:05:11what is the way that Donald Trump sees the situation with Ukraine?
00:05:16The real number is about $350 billion.
00:05:23It's unthinkable.
00:05:25And we had no security.
00:05:26We had no nothing.
00:05:28We were just pouring money there, unsecured money, putting it in banks, and anybody could have taken it out.
00:05:35Anybody over there was their decision.
00:05:37I've never seen anything like it.
00:05:38But Europe, on the other hand, which it's obviously that whole situation is much more important to Europe because we have an ocean in between.
00:05:46But Europe gave about $100 billion.
00:05:49It's a lot of money.
00:05:50It's a big sacrifice they made also.
00:05:53But they gave much less than we did.
00:05:55And their money is secured, totally secured, by deposits in banks.
00:06:01The deposits are largely Russian deposits.
00:06:04That's what Europe did.
00:06:05But their money is secured, so they gave $100 billion totally secured.
00:06:08We gave money like it's throwing it out the window.
00:06:12And it was done by Biden.
00:06:15And this is Biden's war.
00:06:16This isn't Trump's war.
00:06:17I'm trying to get out.
00:06:18And more than the money, they're losing about 5,000 young Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, mostly.
00:06:25There's some people also being killed in towns where missiles should not have been shot, small cities and towns.
00:06:32But we are trying to save the lives of about 5,000 young, mostly soldiers that are losing their lives a week.
00:06:43I see satellite photos.
00:06:46Probably one of his satellites come to think of it.
00:06:48But I see satellite photos every week of fields with arms and heads and legs scattered all over.
00:06:56It's a violent, violent, horrible situation.
00:06:59And more important than the money, I want to save the lives of people from other countries that are dying so stupidly, so needlessly.
00:07:07And they're dying.
00:07:08But I said, what are we doing?
00:07:13How did we get into this war?
00:07:15It would have never happened if I were president.
00:07:18Michael, go ahead.
00:07:20Richard, what do you want to say?
00:07:22Well, I wanted to...
00:07:25I'm always blown away by watching that man, I must say.
00:07:29It's rather stunning.
00:07:30He clearly makes all of this up as he goes along.
00:07:35Unlike the rest of us, he doesn't seem to be constrained by checking whether the fact is the fact, whether what he heard from this one or that one is consistent with what other...
00:07:47None of those things that worry the rest of us seem to annoy this fellow.
00:07:53You know, we put in $350 billion, you know, detail.
00:08:00Most of that money was spent by the United States government on the United States corporations and individuals.
00:08:06That's where most of that money always goes.
00:08:08It goes to large corporations who have nice contracts with the Defense Department and who pick up the money.
00:08:15It's American money funding the American economy by means of the war over there, yes.
00:08:21But, you know, it's not money somehow gone.
00:08:25And then to say the Europeans spent only $100 billion, which is secured.
00:08:31It's secured by the deposits of Russia that are illegal.
00:08:36The Europeans, by the way, have not, in fact, touched them.
00:08:41Because legally, they have been told by their own lawyers that they can't do that.
00:08:45They have to attach the interest earned on that deposit, but not the deposits themselves.
00:08:53And so it's not correct to say they're secured.
00:08:57They're very insecure.
00:09:00And then finally, he's making a deal because he's so upset by death.
00:09:06Well, a few miles away, I can show him much more horrific pictures of dead people and dead children in Gaza doesn't seem to bother him at all.
00:09:21But the ones in Ukraine, these are really kind of, what in the world are we talking about?
00:09:28And then you ask us, which is fine, to talk about the new agreement.
00:09:34I mean, the agreement is between the United States that has no claim on Ukraine at all and the Ukraine government that, you know, was out of power by its own constitution many months ago.
00:09:49Mr. Zelensky, he's not a constitutional government.
00:09:53He has no right to sign anything unless he has an election.
00:09:56He hasn't had an election.
00:09:59None of this matters.
00:10:00This is all political theater here.
00:10:04The British having a deal with Zelensky, possibly including the same rare earths.
00:10:10No one knows what the value of all of that is.
00:10:14I mean, this is posturing.
00:10:18And the reason is because the parties involved cannot come to an agreement.
00:10:23They've been trying for three months.
00:10:26And since Mr. Trump took office, I want to remind people he promised he could and would bring the Ukraine war to an end in a day.
00:10:37Okay, here we are 100 plus days later.
00:10:41And he hasn't done it.
00:10:42It's not entirely his fault.
00:10:44I get that.
00:10:45But, I mean, either you boast or you don't.
00:10:50If you can't get it done, don't boast that you will.
00:10:53If you do boast, you've got to do a little more than was done here.
00:10:58The best guess I have, and certainly this is the majority view of the press in Europe that I look at,
00:11:05is that the United States has made the decision to walk away from this conflict.
00:11:13That whatever efforts it made between the opposition of the Russians and the opposition of the Ukrainians,
00:11:21the United States is not going to force it on the two of them, between you and me.
00:11:27That's because it couldn't.
00:11:29But in any case, it isn't going to try.
00:11:31And it therefore is going to walk away.
00:11:33And it will, of course, blame the Ukrainians and the Russians,
00:11:39because Mr. Trump always blames somebody else for whatever it is that goes wrong.
00:11:45And the American people will be treated to this theater again.
00:11:51And the great question, which has been the great question all along,
00:11:54is how many Americans will, for how long, accept and tolerate what is going on?
00:12:03That's the only issue.
00:12:05The rest of it is details.
00:12:09Well, the devil's in the details.
00:12:11And I think that if you look at the details, Trump has just made the war his war,
00:12:16with an exclamation point.
00:12:18I think he realized that the terms that he had defended Ukraine against Russia were not acceptable to Russia.
00:12:31Russia made it very clear from the beginning what its terms were.
00:12:34And Trump realized that his attempt to make a peace agreement with a ceasefire enabling Ukraine to rearm against Russia
00:12:45and enabling the Europeans, NATO people, to move their arms into Russia,
00:12:52was such a no-go that the whole fantasy that Trump had that he could sweet-talk Putin into making an agreement
00:13:04in the belief that somehow Russia had to do it is over.
00:13:10So if you look at what is the steel that was signed, I spent a little time reading the Financial Times and the other columns.
00:13:21It's not about rare earths.
00:13:24That's the cover story.
00:13:26It's not really even about minerals.
00:13:28It's about the Americans protecting any investment they make with anti-aircraft missiles.
00:13:39And the missiles, of course, can go all the way into Russia.
00:13:43So what seems to be a U.S. plan to try to develop rare earths and lithium deposits,
00:13:56most of which are in the Russian zone,
00:13:59really is only a cover story for the rest of the agreement.
00:14:05That's often how the United States makes an agreement.
00:14:08There will be something at the very end saying,
00:14:11end other purposes or an opener.
00:14:15And the agreement means that the actual military solution will be on the battlefield.
00:14:28There is not going to be a negotiated agreement because Ukraine won't negotiate with Russia.
00:14:34Any negotiated agreement would mean that Russia gives up the territories that it already has to some future agreement.
00:14:46But also there are many devils in the details that now if somehow Trump is not able to get for his backers,
00:14:56such as Blackstone.
00:14:58And by the way, the imminent German chancellor is going to head work for Blackstone before
00:15:12and is virulently anti-Russian.
00:15:16The German new military foreign minister is more anti-Russian than Anneliese Baerbach was.
00:15:27This agreement is a step towards an escalation of the Russian war.
00:15:34There's no attempt at peace.
00:15:38And it looks like you're going to have Germany and England come into the war.
00:15:48And America is going to continue to provide defense for Ukraine.
00:15:55And that defense takes the form of guiding Ukrainian missiles, Ukrainian drones, Ukrainian attacks.
00:16:10So the United States has just recommitted itself to Ukraine.
00:16:15And by claiming that somehow this is going to benefit America, this is how Trump has rationalized with Congress
00:16:26the fact that this new Trump war is much more economically in America's favor than Biden was able to make.
00:16:39And it's a very aggressive act.
00:16:42America has essentially joined Germany, England, and NATO in making a deal whose details are designed
00:16:55to prevent any kind of a negotiated peace and leave the aftermath for after Russia conquers the rest of Ukraine
00:17:07Once the rainy season finishes and the ground is hard enough that tanks can go in, this is to set up the war.
00:17:19And the war is not only about Ukraine.
00:17:23Most of the Russian military buildup has been aimed to defend itself against the Baltic attacks on Russia.
00:17:32The Baltics are trying to prevent Russian access to the sea to get to get to the ocean.
00:17:41They're planning on creating problems for Kaliningrad right in the middle of Lithuania.
00:17:52It looks to me like there's just been a setup for a large military escalation.
00:17:58Richard, here is what the Kiev Post reported right after the deal being signed by the two parties,
00:18:11the Trump administration had agreed to the first armed export to Ukraine for $50 million.
00:18:19And he tries to say that this war is Biden's war, it's not mine.
00:18:25But we know that he was supporting, before Biden coming to office, he was supporting Ukraine.
00:18:33He was sending a lot of weapons to Ukraine.
00:18:35He's bragging about that.
00:18:37This is why he's just removing himself from the scene that it's all on Biden.
00:18:43And I'm not, I have nothing to do with Ukraine.
00:18:49Well, I mean, this isn't consistent with his behavior.
00:18:53I mean, Michael and I may disagree a little bit.
00:18:55I understand what Michael just said.
00:18:57That is certainly one possible understanding of what's going on.
00:19:02I see the logic of his argument.
00:19:05I think Mr. Trump is torn.
00:19:08And I'm not surprised.
00:19:10If you remember, Mr. Biden, for example, ran a campaign against Mr. Trump,
00:19:17clearly implying on many occasions that his war against China had to be rethought.
00:19:24And yet when he came in, Mr. Biden kept most of the tariffs against China
00:19:29and indeed raised a number of them, outdoing Mr. Trump on the very issue
00:19:34where he implied that he would not have done what Mr. Trump did or outright criticized him for it.
00:19:42All we're seeing now is the same thing.
00:19:44Mr. Trump would like to be, this seems to me clear,
00:19:49he would like to be the president who ended Biden's war and saved the United States,
00:19:56the money and the blah, blah, blah, and the loss of face and the failure in the war
00:20:02that, you know, is what Ukraine is, to lost war.
00:20:08He would like that.
00:20:10On the other hand, he gets an enormous amount of pushback,
00:20:15and not just from the Democratic Party, but from that part of the Republican Party
00:20:20that always went along with the Cold War, that always went along with the demonization of Putin.
00:20:27Look at the speeches of that strange man, the senator, you know, from North Carolina.
00:20:36It's just a bizarre expression.
00:20:41Lindsey Graham?
00:20:41Yeah, Lindsey Graham.
00:20:43Sorry, I blocked his name out for obvious reasons.
00:20:46Anyway, the situation means that he wobbles back and forth.
00:20:52He would like to drop Mr. Zelensky in the toilet.
00:20:56He's made enough statements to that.
00:20:59He called him a dictator, called him unelected.
00:21:01He did things that people in that position do not do
00:21:05unless they just as soon see that person disappear, right?
00:21:10And everybody who's critical has noted that he's more friendly to Putin than he is to Zelensky.
00:21:19And that seems to me to be the case.
00:21:21But then, when he's frustrated, when it turns out he cannot get from Zelensky what he wants,
00:21:29and he can't force it, not in a position to do that,
00:21:33partly because the Europeans are taking a different position,
00:21:37and partly because they are furious at him for creating the vulnerability that the European leaders now have.
00:21:45They are all alone out there in this Ukraine war.
00:21:48They're all alone having hitched their entire careers to being patsies for the United States,
00:21:55and now the United States leaves them out there hanging.
00:21:58They are in trouble, and they're worried about their political futures, as they should be.
00:22:04So he's got a lot of counter to himself.
00:22:08Much of it's his own doing, but in making it impossible, he can't end the war.
00:22:14He can't go against the Russians as much as he wants to or would like to.
00:22:20He can't go against Zelensky and enforce it.
00:22:23He's stuck.
00:22:24And so he wobbles.
00:22:25And I think he wobbles one day in the direction of Michael's interpretation.
00:22:32And he wobbles the next day more in the direction of what I'm saying or others are saying.
00:22:37And we don't know where he's going to end up because he doesn't.
00:22:41He doesn't know.
00:22:43You know, maybe Mr. Putin will come up with some solution that he can then buy into.
00:22:48But at this point, he's exhausted.
00:22:51You know, he sent over a team, which, as best one can see, between the old general, whose name I've also blocked out, and his ally, Witkoff, the real estate dealer in New York.
00:23:05Witkoff is telting in one direction, the old general in another direction.
00:23:10And he's listening to this, and he doesn't know which way to go.
00:23:15He's not even interested that much.
00:23:17He would like this albatross off his back, and he can't get it.
00:23:22And therefore, he wobbles, and he hopes something will happen.
00:23:27And he gets upset when the Russians send missiles into Ukraine.
00:23:33And he gets upset if the Ukrainians send their missiles until someone tells him that it was the American advisors over there who actually sent the missile.
00:23:42And then he gets upset that he didn't know that.
00:23:44I mean, there is a tendency to think, because of our ideological society, that what the government is doing is a careful, worked out, logical, organized plan of action.
00:24:02It isn't.
00:24:04It is a more than even normal.
00:24:07And normally it isn't.
00:24:08But with Trump, it's especially chaotic, partly because he doesn't want anyone who could threaten him.
00:24:17He wants the freedom to do whatever he wants.
00:24:20He reasons correctly that he has been able to become the president on that basis.
00:24:26Why should he change?
00:24:29So he's not going to change.
00:24:31He's going to do it the way it strikes him at the moment.
00:24:36Look at what he's done with the tariffs.
00:24:39I'll use them as an example.
00:24:41He has around him economic advisors.
00:24:43I know some of them.
00:24:45They have explained to him the following simple economic truth.
00:24:52Investment of money is something handled by employers.
00:25:00Employers are 3% of the population of the United States.
00:25:05The rest of us, 97%, are not employers.
00:25:08Okay, so the advisors tell him that the single most important determinant of investment is the probability of it being profitable.
00:25:24If it's profitable and there's a good probability of it, you make an investment.
00:25:30If it's profitable but it's too uncertain, you hold back.
00:25:34Look, if Mr. Trump raises a tariff one day, lowers it the next day, exempt somebody from it one day, exempt someone else the next day,
00:25:46what you're doing is teaching the world that it is uncertain any profitability calculus you make,
00:25:55which means they're going to hold back, which means you're going to have a recession.
00:26:01This is not good.
00:26:03The problem is Mr. Trump wants to be the focus of attention.
00:26:09He wants Mary Barra of General Motors to call up and say, I can't make any plan with General Motors.
00:26:17It's going to hurt our factories in Michigan, in Kentucky, in Tennessee.
00:26:24And that's going to hurt your base, Mr. Trump.
00:26:27And they're going to blame you, Mr. Trump, unless you give me an exemption from these tariffs, Mr. Trump.
00:26:35He loves that the heads of General Motors call him up, that they want to talk to him, that they want to plead,
00:26:44that they offer to support him in God knows what ways to get the lack of uncertainty resolved for them.
00:26:54And he gives that to them.
00:26:56He wants them to call him again next week or next month, which they will.
00:27:03You know why?
00:27:04Because he's changed what he had to say from Monday to Thursday.
00:27:08This contradiction between his role as president, the unknowable, the great saver of the country,
00:27:19whose magical powers of making a deal will bring—he loves this.
00:27:26But you can't run a government like that if investment is in the hands of a tiny group of people who live and die every day,
00:27:37like you, me, and Michael do, reading the headlines to try to get a sense of what's going on.
00:27:44I'm not responsible for billions of dollars of investment.
00:27:48I'm not responsible for all the jobs.
00:27:51But Mary Barra at General Motors or the people running Ford or any of the others are.
00:27:59Look, orders three weeks ago were collapsing in China for consumer goods.
00:28:07Last week, a lot of Chinese companies happily announced they're back in production.
00:28:13Why?
00:28:14Because the head of Walmart and the head of Target and the head of a couple of other companies had a meeting with Mr. Trump,
00:28:22and he told them he would adjust the tariffs so that they wouldn't miss out on the shipments of goods from China,
00:28:32which are crucial for the Christmas selling season in retail America,
00:28:38which is the most important part of the year for these companies.
00:28:41He is changing and shifting one minute to the next.
00:28:47You can't know that's what he wants, and no one around him, including the economic advisors that I know,
00:28:56who have told him what I've just said, can get to first base with him.
00:29:01He's going to do it the way he feels like.
00:29:06When you saw an incompetent Biden stay in the office and refuse to step down,
00:29:15you should have noticed the president can do that.
00:29:19He can do it for months, and he can do it at the expense of his political party.
00:29:25That's the way American individualism always works.
00:29:30It will, in the end, undo the country that celebrates it as its extraordinary strength.
00:29:39It's Hegel again.
00:29:41That individualism will make you strong in some circumstances and make you collapse in others.
00:29:48Well, I want to start by getting back to the original question and the point that you made about Ukraine.
00:30:00I think that Trump said the following.
00:30:06We're going to continue Biden's war.
00:30:09It will be my war, but we're going to make money off it.
00:30:13That's the twist that he's done.
00:30:16He said it's okay to keep fighting the war if we can make money.
00:30:20The mineral steel is a fig leaf to pretend that we can make money that conceals the military buildup
00:30:31and the renewed American pressure on Russia.
00:30:36I think that, as you pointed out in your beginning remark, you said there's a problem between Kellogg,
00:30:47who is a pro-Biden, anti-Russian general who had a fantasy idea that Russia needed,
00:30:59that Russia was weakening, that Russia was about to collapse economically,
00:31:02and that Russia would do except whatever proposal Trump made.
00:31:10And there was Vitkoff, who actually was visiting with Russia and was reality-based.
00:31:16Trump didn't like the reality-based description by Vitkoff.
00:31:22He liked the fantasy that Kellogg had, the anti-Russian fantasy that, yes, America can come out on top of Russia.
00:31:35That's what Trump always believes.
00:31:38We have to be the winner.
00:31:39And the deal is so, on developing resources, is so open-ended that he hopes nobody will get to the military protection of the resources,
00:31:54meaning that whatever deal that England has made and that NATO countries, European countries have made,
00:32:03the American deal supersedes all that, and that it's not the NATO countries, Europe, that's going to have any role to play.
00:32:14It is the Americans.
00:32:17And one of the aspects of the deal that Trump emphasized was that no country that has dealt with Russia and broken the American sanctions in Russia
00:32:30can have any economic deal made with Ukraine for the resources.
00:32:36This is the Cold War with an exclamation point.
00:32:39Trump has just gone much more hard line than even the Biden Democrats had wanted to do.
00:32:48This is a really serious saying that, well, Russia didn't surrender, so now we're going to show you Russia.
00:32:56Now we're going to have the really heavy war.
00:33:00You think you can beat Ukraine and that it's all over and that you're going to be able to conquer it?
00:33:10Well, wait till you see, you know, what we're going to do now.
00:33:13So I think that what Trump has done is really much more than just wishy-washy.
00:33:20He's made a step-chain change in the whole system towards war.
00:33:26I don't know what I can say.
00:33:30I'll leave it to Nima to ask what he wants to talk about the tariff issue.
00:33:35Yeah.
00:33:36By the way, what's going on in Europe is so much important.
00:33:40Richard and Michael, right now, Financial Times reported that the European Union prepares plan B
00:33:48should Trump walk away from Ukraine.
00:33:51What's going on in Ukraine?
00:33:53It seems that on one hand, there's so much concern about Donald Trump leaving the war in Ukraine.
00:34:02On the other hand, if he lets the American companies go to Russia, what would be the future of Europe?
00:34:11What is this huge loss on the part of Europe?
00:34:14Because they're losing Russia on one hand.
00:34:16They're not getting cheap energy from Russia and the United States, which was the main party in this conflict in Ukraine,
00:34:25is leaving the scene and they're trying to repair their sort of relationship with Russia.
00:34:33How do you see, Richard, the way that the European Union or European countries are seeing the conflict in Ukraine?
00:34:41In my judgment, the Europeans are in a state for which the only word I can think of is desperation.
00:34:52They are finished.
00:34:54Europe is the fall guy in all of this.
00:34:57The world is shaping up as a declining empire of the G7 on the one hand, led by the United States,
00:35:04and the rising empire of China, allied with the BRICS.
00:35:08The Chinese have been working for 15 years to develop the BRICS as a serious alliance, and they've done a very good job.
00:35:15The United States G7 has just been dealt a death blow by the United States,
00:35:21turning on literally every one of those countries.
00:35:24Canada, maybe not Japan, but even there, there's the first-time rumblings of a dissent from their subordination to the United States,
00:35:36and the Europeans are, of course, upset in different ways.
00:35:40The only thing holding Europe together now, the only thing, is the terrible fear each of them has
00:35:46about the other one cutting a deal with the United States to end up being the favored one.
00:35:52You could watch Maloney trying to make that Italy.
00:35:56You can watch Starmer desperate to figure out how to avoid the United States shifting to Italy
00:36:03rather than using Britain as the lock dog that it has done for all these years.
00:36:10They can't get together, and without that, they can't do anything about their situation.
00:36:16They can make whatever plans they want.
00:36:18It doesn't matter.
00:36:19Michael may be right about General Kellogg.
00:36:23I mean, we do have to remember that if you're a person raised in the Cold War,
00:36:29which all of us more or less have been, or the legacy of it,
00:36:34then you think of Russia as this enormous event.
00:36:38But if you're an economist, you know that the GDP of the United States
00:36:44is in the neighborhood of $25, $27, $28 trillion,
00:36:48and the GDP of Russia is in the neighborhood of $3 or $4 trillion.
00:36:53This is an elephant and a mouse.
00:36:56And so, of course, in the minds of the general from the elephant country,
00:37:01there is the notion we can always exhaust Russia.
00:37:06We did get rid of the Soviet Union by exhausting it in an arms race it could not afford,
00:37:16in a takeover in Afghanistan, which it could not afford,
00:37:20in the cutting back of their consumer society, which they could politically not afford.
00:37:26So we're not going to do it again.
00:37:28They're going to do it again.
00:37:30This time with sanctions and so on.
00:37:32Sure, the mechanisms shift.
00:37:36Russia is a nuclear danger.
00:37:38That has to be taken.
00:37:40But what they're not considering is the biggest mistake of all.
00:37:45Russia has the BRICS.
00:37:48That's how they dealt with the energy problem.
00:37:51They could stop selling oil and gas, not 100%,
00:37:55but the bulk of it, to Europe and sell it to China and India.
00:37:58I don't want to make it too simple, but it isn't all that complicated.
00:38:03And they're not going to be able to force the Russians into any of their fantasies.
00:38:10I want to remind you, Russia was supposed to collapse.
00:38:14Putin was supposed to be kicked out.
00:38:16The ruble was supposed to disintegrate.
00:38:19None of that happened.
00:38:21None of it.
00:38:22Not even a little.
00:38:24And by the way, they never speak about it.
00:38:26It's as if that history never happened.
00:38:28It's up to us as critics to remind them of the total nonsense
00:38:33of their strategic thinking that they shared with us.
00:38:38Look, it's possible that the British will read the agreement
00:38:43that Michael has been talking about, the way Michael has,
00:38:47and understand it to be a maneuver rendering the deal they made
00:38:52with Zelensky null and void.
00:38:54What are they then going to do?
00:38:58This is another declaration of war,
00:39:01like imposing tariffs on their aluminum and steel and all the rest of it.
00:39:06They are being told that as the American empire struggles
00:39:12to slow down its own decline,
00:39:17sacrificing Europe is perfectly okay.
00:39:20Look, they didn't react to the election two days ago in Canada,
00:39:27in which a political party that was far behind in the polls
00:39:32turned Mr. Trump into a winning strategy.
00:39:37The man running for them, the old Bank of England director,
00:39:44gave the middle finger to Mr. Trump.
00:39:47That was his whole campaign.
00:39:49And he won.
00:39:51And he won by plenty.
00:39:53Even in Quebec with their own native son,
00:39:56French-speaking fellow, they couldn't get off the ground.
00:40:00Quebecois voted against Trump.
00:40:04This is a sign.
00:40:05If it can happen in Canada,
00:40:07what's going to happen in the elections coming up in Europe
00:40:10when candidates begin to smell the opportunities
00:40:15of running a campaign against Trump?
00:40:19If you're going to run against Trump,
00:40:21you're going to get a lot of votes.
00:40:22And if you force Mr. Starmer or Mr. Macron or the Germans
00:40:30to be the pro-Trump, uh-oh, that's very dangerous for them.
00:40:37They must know that.
00:40:39And so you see, they don't know what to do.
00:40:43They can't back away from Ukraine
00:40:45because they've made their whole career.
00:40:47They can't really back away from Trump
00:40:49because that's their whole life.
00:40:51That's who they are.
00:40:52That's why they're in power.
00:40:55They ran against neoliberal globalization
00:40:59to get into power.
00:41:02In other words, they,
00:41:04it was the American plan for the world
00:41:06that gave them their chance.
00:41:09They can't betray that now.
00:41:11They wouldn't know where to go.
00:41:14They couldn't speak about it.
00:41:15But there will be politicians.
00:41:17There already are politicians
00:41:19in all those countries.
00:41:20inside their parties
00:41:22and on the left,
00:41:24both,
00:41:25who are going to make life
00:41:26very difficult for them
00:41:28in the years ahead.
00:41:30And that's no matter what happens
00:41:32in the Ukraine.
00:41:33Well, the problem is,
00:41:36how do they escape from this fantasy
00:41:38that Richard has explained?
00:41:40And he's quite right to bring it up.
00:41:43The fantasy was a paper
00:41:45written, I think,
00:41:47by a Hudson Institute neocon
00:41:50that actually said
00:41:52the Russian economy
00:41:56is about to collapse
00:41:57if only we can make it
00:41:59spend enough on the military
00:42:01that it'll be a replay
00:42:04of the Soviet Union collapsing
00:42:06under the military.
00:42:07That was explicit.
00:42:08It was said
00:42:09that there will be
00:42:10a regime change.
00:42:11If we fight against Russia,
00:42:14the Russian people
00:42:15will want to overthrow Putin
00:42:18and we'll have the regime change.
00:42:20We can have another
00:42:21Boris Yeltsin there.
00:42:22That was explicitly the plan
00:42:24and there was no plan B.
00:42:27They were stuck into it
00:42:28and that's been the plan
00:42:30for the last few years.
00:42:33And that's the plan
00:42:34that the current European leaders
00:42:37are committed to.
00:42:39Remember that Europe is a democracy
00:42:41and a democracy means
00:42:43you don't let parties,
00:42:45voters vote for parties
00:42:46that are not considered pro-American
00:42:51because democracy means Cold War.
00:42:54Democracy means NATO.
00:42:57Democracy means military spending
00:43:00and military spending means class war.
00:43:04that if Germany spends
00:43:08the 700 or 800 billion euros
00:43:12on rearming,
00:43:15that money is no longer
00:43:17going to be available
00:43:18for social spending.
00:43:20Military Keynesianism
00:43:22essentially means
00:43:24the end of social democracy,
00:43:27the end of social spending.
00:43:28That's why Germany cannot let
00:43:31the Alternative for Deutschland party,
00:43:35which is the equivalent
00:43:36of what we've just seen in Canada,
00:43:38win because that wouldn't be democratic.
00:43:42That wouldn't be pro-NATO.
00:43:44That would be Putin's puppet.
00:43:46And yet the AFD
00:43:48has been increasing its popularity
00:43:51week after week after week.
00:43:53So as the European voters
00:43:56are voting against the war,
00:44:03and in England,
00:44:04you're having Starmer
00:44:05going way, way down
00:44:09for tying himself to Trump
00:44:11each week and month.
00:44:15And you're having the third party,
00:44:21the anti,
00:44:22that had been the anti-Europe party,
00:44:26gaining votes.
00:44:28So you're having the European voters
00:44:30doing just exactly
00:44:32what the Canadian voters did.
00:44:34And yet you have
00:44:36the European Constitution
00:44:38is such a rotten creation
00:44:42of CIA lawyers
00:44:45that the European Constitution
00:44:46has placed power
00:44:49not in who the voters vote for
00:44:51domestically,
00:44:53but in the EU leadership
00:44:56where they have,
00:44:57as we've said before,
00:44:59von der Leyen leading
00:45:00and the crazy Estonian
00:45:04lady beating for war.
00:45:11I think Richard
00:45:13did begin by mentioning
00:45:14the GDP.
00:45:16Something very important there.
00:45:18It's not simply
00:45:19that the GDP of China
00:45:22and Asia
00:45:24and the BRICS
00:45:24are going up.
00:45:26It's that the GDP
00:45:27of the United States
00:45:29is larger.
00:45:31It's that it's going up.
00:45:32And the American GDP
00:45:34is going down.
00:45:36And you're going to see that
00:45:37in the statistical reports
00:45:39that are coming out
00:45:40for an obvious reason.
00:45:43Given the fact
00:45:44that trade with China
00:45:45and other countries
00:45:47is interrupted,
00:45:48this means that companies
00:45:50are drawing down
00:45:52their inventories
00:45:53if they're not able
00:45:54to get goods from China.
00:45:56They have a lot of inventories
00:45:58that we've saved up,
00:46:00including inventories
00:46:02of rare earths
00:46:03that we have
00:46:03a one-month supply
00:46:04in America.
00:46:06If you look
00:46:06at the components
00:46:07of the GDP,
00:46:08inventories
00:46:09are a very major
00:46:11indication.
00:46:14It used to be,
00:46:16back in the 1960s,
00:46:17when I was an economist,
00:46:21all of the economists
00:46:23and the newspapers,
00:46:25the press,
00:46:26would look not only
00:46:27at GDP,
00:46:28they'd look at
00:46:28the composition
00:46:30of the GDP.
00:46:31What elements
00:46:32are going up?
00:46:33What elements
00:46:33are going down?
00:46:35And inventories
00:46:36are always
00:46:36very, very important.
00:46:38Well, right now,
00:46:39as America is drawing
00:46:40down its inventories,
00:46:42instead of importing
00:46:43from China,
00:46:44that counts
00:46:45as a decline
00:46:47in GDP.
00:46:49And you can be sure
00:46:51that the GDP figures
00:46:53are going to go down.
00:46:55It still bewilders me
00:46:58as to why
00:46:58the stock market
00:47:00is going up
00:47:01in all of this.
00:47:03And that's going up,
00:47:04apparently,
00:47:05because of NASDAQ,
00:47:06primarily,
00:47:07because of
00:47:08the technology
00:47:09monopoly.
00:47:11And I don't see
00:47:13how this will be
00:47:14very helpful.
00:47:15regarding the inventories,
00:47:19and Trump
00:47:20had his
00:47:21Marie Antoinette
00:47:22moment yesterday.
00:47:24He said,
00:47:25so,
00:47:26we don't export
00:47:28the dolls
00:47:29from China
00:47:29we used to.
00:47:30So,
00:47:31now,
00:47:31girls are only
00:47:32going to have
00:47:32two dolls
00:47:33to play with,
00:47:34not 20.
00:47:36I wonder
00:47:37what
00:47:38percentile
00:47:40he's referring to
00:47:42that has 20 dolls
00:47:43instead of
00:47:44others.
00:47:45I mean,
00:47:45that was
00:47:46essentially
00:47:47his version
00:47:48of let them
00:47:48eat cake.
00:47:49That is,
00:47:50imagining
00:47:50that everybody
00:47:51is already,
00:47:53the Americans
00:47:54are so affluent
00:47:55that somehow
00:47:56they already
00:47:57have enough.
00:47:58They don't need
00:47:59the imports
00:48:01from China.
00:48:02But you're seeing
00:48:03that the imports
00:48:05from China
00:48:06won't come.
00:48:07And I don't
00:48:08see China
00:48:09giving in
00:48:10to the United States,
00:48:11although there
00:48:11was some hint
00:48:12that spurred
00:48:14the stock market
00:48:15to go up
00:48:16this morning
00:48:16that somehow
00:48:17China was going
00:48:18to look for
00:48:18a rapprochement.
00:48:20I don't see
00:48:20that at all.
00:48:21I think China
00:48:22realizes
00:48:23that when Trump
00:48:25says China
00:48:26is our number
00:48:27one enemy,
00:48:28all of our economy,
00:48:30all of our war
00:48:31is geared
00:48:32towards hurting
00:48:33China,
00:48:33that he means it.
00:48:35And that the
00:48:36negotiations
00:48:37that he's planning
00:48:38on making
00:48:39over the next
00:48:39three months
00:48:40with other
00:48:41countries
00:48:41to be
00:48:45free themselves
00:48:46from these
00:48:47enormous tariffs
00:48:48America has done
00:48:49is all conditional
00:48:51upon their
00:48:52getting these
00:48:52countries
00:48:53not to trade
00:48:55with China
00:48:56or with Russia.
00:48:58And as Richard
00:48:59said,
00:49:00there's some
00:49:00fear
00:49:01among some
00:49:03countries.
00:49:03Well,
00:49:04who's going
00:49:04to give in
00:49:05to Trump
00:49:05first?
00:49:06Are they going
00:49:07to take
00:49:08our position?
00:49:09But basically,
00:49:10I don't think
00:49:11there's that much
00:49:12of a problem.
00:49:13The choice
00:49:15is between
00:49:15are you going
00:49:16to shift
00:49:17your trade
00:49:18arrangements
00:49:20to countries
00:49:22that are growing
00:49:24and that make
00:49:26steady agreements
00:49:27that are firm
00:49:29and not subject
00:49:31to the kind
00:49:32of change
00:49:32that Trump
00:49:33has?
00:49:33Or are you
00:49:34going to tie
00:49:35your trade
00:49:35to an economy
00:49:36that is shrinking
00:49:37that is blocking
00:49:38trade
00:49:39and that
00:49:41whatever agreement
00:49:42you think
00:49:43you've made
00:49:44for the next
00:49:44three months
00:49:45will be subject
00:49:46to the kind
00:49:47of change
00:49:47that is happening
00:49:48every single
00:49:49week in the
00:49:51United States.
00:49:51So I think
00:49:52that the
00:49:53changes
00:49:56that Trump
00:49:57has made
00:49:57is not
00:49:59simply something
00:50:00that can be
00:50:00reversed,
00:50:01something that,
00:50:02okay,
00:50:02that deal
00:50:03wasn't made.
00:50:04We made
00:50:04a big ask,
00:50:05but we always
00:50:06make a big ask
00:50:07for so that
00:50:08we can back
00:50:09down and settle
00:50:10in the midpoint,
00:50:11which is what
00:50:12we wanted
00:50:13from the beginning
00:50:14anyway.
00:50:15And I don't think
00:50:16that's going
00:50:17to work anymore.
00:50:18I don't think
00:50:19people are going
00:50:19to settle
00:50:20for the midpoint.
00:50:21They're going
00:50:21to reject
00:50:22the whole
00:50:23kind of
00:50:24negotiation
00:50:25that's been
00:50:26taking place
00:50:26in trade.
00:50:27And I think
00:50:28they've already
00:50:28realized there's
00:50:30going to be
00:50:30a change
00:50:31in trade
00:50:32patterns.
00:50:32I think
00:50:33India is
00:50:34very critical
00:50:35in all this,
00:50:36especially with
00:50:37the problems
00:50:37with Pakistan
00:50:38that they're
00:50:40having.
00:50:42And the
00:50:43Americans
00:50:44have been
00:50:45trying to
00:50:46ally with
00:50:48India on
00:50:49this.
00:50:49It's one of
00:50:50the countries
00:50:50caught in the
00:50:51middle.
00:50:51Turkey's caught
00:50:52in the middle.
00:50:53These are
00:50:54the flashpoints,
00:50:56I think,
00:50:57that you have
00:50:57to look at.
00:50:58If I could
00:50:59add something
00:51:00about Europe,
00:51:01the reason,
00:51:05I'm going
00:51:06to state it
00:51:06bluntly,
00:51:07the reason
00:51:08that the
00:51:08Europeans
00:51:09lined up
00:51:11and gung-ho
00:51:12to help
00:51:12Zelensky
00:51:13and Ukraine
00:51:14is because
00:51:16they have
00:51:18to show
00:51:18their people
00:51:19that they
00:51:21are not
00:51:22the puppets
00:51:23of Mr.
00:51:24Trump.
00:51:25All of the
00:51:26people of
00:51:27Europe hate
00:51:27Mr.
00:51:28Trump now.
00:51:28They understand
00:51:29that the
00:51:31tariffs and
00:51:32everything else,
00:51:33plus what he
00:51:33says, is a
00:51:35denigration of
00:51:36Europe, a
00:51:37willingness to
00:51:38throw them
00:51:38under the
00:51:39bus, to
00:51:40utilize trade
00:51:43deals with
00:51:43them, to
00:51:44squeeze them
00:51:45every which
00:51:46away he
00:51:46thinks is
00:51:47appropriate,
00:51:48to snatch
00:51:49Greenland,
00:51:50if he can,
00:51:51to take over
00:51:52the Panama
00:51:53Canal, to
00:51:54make Canada
00:51:55the fifth.
00:51:55these are
00:51:56all assaults
00:51:57on everything
00:51:58that the
00:51:58Europeans,
00:51:59these politicians
00:52:00are desperate.
00:52:02They have to
00:52:03show that
00:52:04they are not
00:52:05the puppets
00:52:06of Mr.
00:52:07Trump,
00:52:08because they
00:52:08are, and
00:52:09they always
00:52:10have been.
00:52:11And the
00:52:11way to do
00:52:12that is to
00:52:13be very
00:52:14strong on
00:52:15something that
00:52:16looks like a
00:52:17disagreement with
00:52:18Mr.
00:52:19Trump.
00:52:19Trump, and
00:52:20Ukraine was
00:52:21the only
00:52:22option.
00:52:23So we are
00:52:24going to
00:52:25stand firm
00:52:26with Ukraine.
00:52:27We are going
00:52:28to send our
00:52:29troops.
00:52:30A silly joke,
00:52:31they don't have
00:52:32the troops.
00:52:33The Russians
00:52:33would make
00:52:33short shrift of
00:52:35them.
00:52:36It's silly, but
00:52:38it is the
00:52:38desperate behavior
00:52:40of politicians
00:52:41who know
00:52:42that given
00:52:43Mr.
00:52:44Trump's
00:52:45assault on
00:52:45them, and
00:52:47given their
00:52:47pro-American
00:52:48credentials
00:52:49developed over
00:52:51a lifetime,
00:52:52they're going
00:52:53down.
00:52:55And this
00:52:55is a life
00:52:57raft, this
00:52:58Ukraine.
00:52:59So yeah, they
00:53:00will spend
00:53:01the money,
00:53:02they will
00:53:02change the
00:53:04rules of
00:53:04Europe so
00:53:05that the
00:53:05European Union
00:53:06can borrow
00:53:07money.
00:53:08The Germans
00:53:08had to do
00:53:09that as part
00:53:09of their
00:53:10rearmament
00:53:11program.
00:53:11What is
00:53:12this?
00:53:13This is
00:53:13desperate
00:53:14behavior.
00:53:15They can't
00:53:16commit Germany
00:53:17for the next
00:53:17eight years.
00:53:18this government
00:53:19may not
00:53:19last eight
00:53:20months, and
00:53:21everything they
00:53:22do can be
00:53:22undone by
00:53:23the next
00:53:23one.
00:53:24So the
00:53:24reality is
00:53:26that this
00:53:27is, again,
00:53:28political
00:53:28theater in
00:53:30a desperate
00:53:31situation.
00:53:33Here's another
00:53:34dimension.
00:53:36When Mr.
00:53:37Trump
00:53:38disrupts
00:53:39global trade
00:53:40by putting a
00:53:42tariff on
00:53:42everybody,
00:53:43economy, it
00:53:44is well
00:53:45understood that
00:53:46this changes
00:53:48all of the
00:53:50global supply
00:53:52chains.
00:53:54We don't
00:53:54know where
00:53:54ships are
00:53:56going to go.
00:53:57We don't
00:53:57know which
00:53:57ship is
00:53:58going to be
00:53:58empty on
00:53:59one step of
00:54:01its route,
00:54:01so it can't
00:54:02go from here
00:54:03to there,
00:54:04because even
00:54:04if it had to
00:54:05carry a freight
00:54:07to go there,
00:54:08it doesn't have
00:54:08a comparable
00:54:09freight to come
00:54:10back, so if
00:54:12you're involved
00:54:13with a
00:54:13globalized
00:54:14supply chain,
00:54:16you are in
00:54:17trouble.
00:54:18You're going
00:54:18to have
00:54:19multiple
00:54:20tariff
00:54:21effects added
00:54:22on to one
00:54:23another, and
00:54:24you're going
00:54:24to have
00:54:25extreme
00:54:26uncertainty.
00:54:28China and
00:54:30the BRICS
00:54:30is where
00:54:32the manufacturing
00:54:33supply chain
00:54:35moved to
00:54:36over the
00:54:37last 40
00:54:38years.
00:54:38they need
00:54:40the international
00:54:41supply routes
00:54:42least of
00:54:43all.
00:54:44People
00:54:44misunderstand.
00:54:46Do they
00:54:46depend on
00:54:47exports?
00:54:48Yes, to
00:54:49a remarkable
00:54:49extent.
00:54:51Does that
00:54:51vulnerabilize
00:54:53them to
00:54:53supply chain
00:54:54problems?
00:54:55Yes, to
00:54:56some extent.
00:54:58But the
00:54:59irony is,
00:55:00most of
00:55:01the manufacturing
00:55:02in the
00:55:03world needs
00:55:04inputs from
00:55:05far away.
00:55:07China does
00:55:07not.
00:55:08China has
00:55:09internalized
00:55:11all of
00:55:12that to
00:55:12a remarkable
00:55:13extent.
00:55:14That offsets
00:55:16their dependence
00:55:17on global
00:55:18supply chains.
00:55:20But for
00:55:20Europe and
00:55:21America,
00:55:22nothing offsets
00:55:23it.
00:55:24They have
00:55:25denuded
00:55:25themselves of
00:55:27the components
00:55:28of the supply
00:55:29chain.
00:55:30They are
00:55:30totally
00:55:31vulnerable.
00:55:33American
00:55:34automobile,
00:55:35Mary Barra
00:55:36of General
00:55:36Motors and
00:55:37the fellow
00:55:38at the
00:55:38head of
00:55:38Ford,
00:55:39have been
00:55:39busily
00:55:40explaining,
00:55:41both to
00:55:41the press
00:55:42and to
00:55:43the Congress,
00:55:44the complicated
00:55:45supply chains
00:55:47that their car
00:55:48production is
00:55:49dependent on.
00:55:50That's why they
00:55:51have to be
00:55:51involved in all
00:55:52of it.
00:55:53Even for the
00:55:54cars made in
00:55:55America,
00:55:56their dependence
00:55:56on supply
00:55:57chains is
00:55:59what we've
00:55:59been doing
00:56:00for the
00:56:00last half
00:56:01century.
00:56:02Meanwhile,
00:56:03China has
00:56:03been gathering
00:56:04into itself
00:56:06and even
00:56:07more into
00:56:07its BRICS
00:56:08allies so
00:56:10they're not
00:56:11vulnerable in
00:56:12the same
00:56:12way.
00:56:13Nobody
00:56:14seems to
00:56:15be able to
00:56:16put that
00:56:16together.
00:56:18And what
00:56:19that means
00:56:19is when
00:56:20you do
00:56:20it, you
00:56:21end up
00:56:21with the
00:56:22following
00:56:23remarkable
00:56:24guess that
00:56:27this disruption
00:56:28of the
00:56:28world economy
00:56:29is more
00:56:30costly to
00:56:31the West
00:56:32and America
00:56:33than it
00:56:33is to
00:56:34China.
00:56:35China's in
00:56:35a better
00:56:36position to
00:56:37cope with
00:56:38this than
00:56:38we are.
00:56:39And we're
00:56:40doing it.
00:56:41This is like
00:56:42having a
00:56:43duel with
00:56:44a skilled
00:56:45swords person
00:56:46and you
00:56:47never touched
00:56:48one.
00:56:49And when
00:56:49the duel
00:56:50is arranged
00:56:50they ask
00:56:51you what
00:56:52weapons do
00:56:52you choose
00:56:53and you
00:56:54choose
00:56:54swords.
00:56:56That's crazy
00:56:57because the
00:56:57other guy
00:56:58is an
00:56:59expert.
00:56:59this
00:57:01tariff game
00:57:02of Trump
00:57:03has to
00:57:04be the
00:57:04act of
00:57:05a person
00:57:06who never
00:57:07either thought
00:57:08it through
00:57:09or who
00:57:09never listened
00:57:10to the
00:57:11advisors
00:57:11who explained
00:57:12to him
00:57:13here's the
00:57:14cost if
00:57:15you do
00:57:15that.
00:57:16And there
00:57:17again you're
00:57:18watching
00:57:18whoa.
00:57:21Whoa.
00:57:23Well it's
00:57:23political
00:57:24theater but
00:57:25it's political
00:57:26theater with
00:57:27the real
00:57:27world
00:57:28consequences.
00:57:28that you've
00:57:30pointed out
00:57:31and these
00:57:32consequences
00:57:32are irreversible
00:57:34and that's
00:57:35the point
00:57:36that once
00:57:37he's done
00:57:38what he's
00:57:39done,
00:57:40once he
00:57:40has done
00:57:41the tariff
00:57:42policy
00:57:43and shifted
00:57:44his war
00:57:45policy,
00:57:46this cannot
00:57:47be rolled
00:57:48back.
00:57:49You can't
00:57:49say oh I
00:57:50made a mistake
00:57:50I'm going
00:57:51back as
00:57:52Trump has
00:57:53done with
00:57:53the tariffs.
00:57:53he can
00:57:54roll back
00:57:55the tariffs
00:57:55for the
00:57:57automobiles
00:57:57of Canada
00:57:58and say
00:57:58well we're
00:57:59going to
00:57:59permit the
00:58:00Canadian
00:58:00auto parts
00:58:03to be
00:58:04imported
00:58:04without a
00:58:05tariff so
00:58:05that the
00:58:06supply chain
00:58:07will not
00:58:07be interrupted.
00:58:09But it's
00:58:10all about
00:58:11the supply
00:58:11chain.
00:58:13He may
00:58:13fix it
00:58:14with the
00:58:14tariffs,
00:58:15he may
00:58:15fix other
00:58:16supply chains
00:58:17with,
00:58:17for instance,
00:58:18he said we
00:58:18won't bother
00:58:20with having
00:58:21Apple lose
00:58:23its supply
00:58:23chains for
00:58:24its iPhones.
00:58:25That's going
00:58:25to be,
00:58:26they can
00:58:27all trade.
00:58:27He can
00:58:28try to
00:58:28then have
00:58:29walkbacks
00:58:30of individual
00:58:31parts but
00:58:32he can't
00:58:32walk back
00:58:33the entire
00:58:34deal and
00:58:35there are
00:58:35so many
00:58:36supply chains
00:58:37besides the
00:58:39big Apple
00:58:39chain and
00:58:41the big
00:58:41automobile
00:58:43tariff
00:58:43chain that
00:58:44there's going
00:58:46to be
00:58:47disruptions and
00:58:48that's why
00:58:49yesterday
00:58:49two days
00:58:50ago UPS
00:58:52said well
00:58:53we're laying
00:58:54off 20,000
00:58:55delivery people
00:58:56because there's
00:58:59the ships
00:59:00are not
00:59:01landing in
00:59:02the ports
00:59:02full of
00:59:03goods to
00:59:03be downloaded
00:59:05and distributed
00:59:06now.
00:59:08There's been
00:59:08huge government
00:59:11supply chains
00:59:13of officials
00:59:14that have
00:59:15been fired
00:59:16under
00:59:18Musk
00:59:18that are
00:59:19playing
00:59:20critical
00:59:20roles.
00:59:22They've
00:59:22been putting
00:59:23all of
00:59:23the medical
00:59:24test animals
00:59:26to death
00:59:27because he's
00:59:27cancelled the
00:59:28research into
00:59:29medicine that
00:59:31have been
00:59:31using animals.
00:59:33So all
00:59:33of these
00:59:34supply,
00:59:36not only a
00:59:38supply chain
00:59:39is interrupted,
00:59:40that leads
00:59:41to layoffs
00:59:42of labor,
00:59:43that means
00:59:44to unemployment,
00:59:44it means
00:59:45claims for
00:59:46unemployment
00:59:47insurance,
00:59:48it means
00:59:49that there's
00:59:50an enormous
00:59:51shrinkage
00:59:52within the
00:59:53labor force
00:59:54and even
00:59:55if the
00:59:57Dow Jones
00:59:58average and
00:59:59the stock
00:59:59market's going
01:00:00up, the
01:00:01labor market
01:00:01is going
01:00:02down.
01:00:02I would
01:00:06like to
01:00:06add, I
01:00:07looked into
01:00:08it the
01:00:09last couple
01:00:09days, as
01:00:10of May
01:00:111st, if
01:00:13the statistics
01:00:13are correct,
01:00:15about 120,000
01:00:17federal
01:00:18employees have
01:00:19been fired
01:00:19and another
01:00:21unknown number
01:00:22of thousands
01:00:23have either
01:00:24taken a
01:00:25voluntary buyout,
01:00:26that's not
01:00:27included in
01:00:28the 120,000
01:00:29fired, or
01:00:31have been
01:00:31placed, I
01:00:32quote, placed
01:00:33on administrative
01:00:34leave, and
01:00:37that it is
01:00:37explained, that's
01:00:38not in the
01:00:39120,000, so
01:00:40those are
01:00:41x, I don't
01:00:42know the
01:00:42number, I
01:00:43couldn't find
01:00:43it, x
01:00:44thousand
01:00:44beyond,
01:00:46every agency
01:00:48has a
01:00:48minimum of
01:00:4910%.
01:00:50Some of
01:00:51the larger
01:00:52agencies, the
01:00:53largest single
01:00:53agency of
01:00:55the federal
01:00:56government is
01:00:56the Veterans
01:00:57Administration,
01:00:58they're
01:00:58scheduled for
01:00:59a 15%
01:01:01cut, that's
01:01:0270,000
01:01:03workers, and
01:01:05already they're
01:01:06announcing
01:01:07cutbacks, the
01:01:08most recent
01:01:09one announced
01:01:10today, is
01:01:11this program,
01:01:13it's a little
01:01:13program, but it
01:01:15gives you an
01:01:15idea of what
01:01:16Michael was
01:01:16pointing to,
01:01:17it's a little
01:01:18program that
01:01:19helps veterans
01:01:21who fall
01:01:22behind in
01:01:24their mortgage
01:01:24payments, and
01:01:26so therefore
01:01:27are at threat
01:01:28of foreclosure
01:01:30from the
01:01:31banks, there
01:01:32used to be a
01:01:33government
01:01:33program that
01:01:34would step
01:01:35in and
01:01:37help them
01:01:38either take
01:01:39over the
01:01:40mortgage, which
01:01:41I believe they
01:01:41did, or
01:01:42refinance one,
01:01:44etc.
01:01:44All of that's
01:01:45being cut
01:01:46back, which
01:01:48now threatens,
01:01:49and listen to
01:01:50these numbers,
01:01:51which now
01:01:51threatens tens
01:01:53of thousands
01:01:54of veterans
01:01:55currently behind
01:01:57in their
01:01:57mortgage payments,
01:01:59they're going
01:01:59to lose
01:02:00their homes,
01:02:02which puts
01:02:03burdens on
01:02:04mental health
01:02:05facilities,
01:02:06physical health
01:02:07facilities,
01:02:09communities where
01:02:10veterans are
01:02:11concentrated, like
01:02:12Southern
01:02:13California, and
01:02:14so on and
01:02:14so on.
01:02:15None of this
01:02:16is being
01:02:18dealt, it's
01:02:19as if there's
01:02:19no problem.
01:02:21You know what
01:02:21kind of society
01:02:22functions like
01:02:23this?
01:02:24The kinds
01:02:24of societies
01:02:25we used
01:02:26to say
01:02:27wrongly, but
01:02:29we used to
01:02:29call third
01:02:30world countries,
01:02:32places where
01:02:32there's a
01:02:33capital city
01:02:34or two, where
01:02:35you get kind
01:02:36of Western
01:02:36standards of
01:02:37living, and
01:02:38then a vast
01:02:39ocean around
01:02:40them of
01:02:41desperate
01:02:42poverty, where
01:02:43there's no
01:02:43transportation, and
01:02:45no health
01:02:46care, and
01:02:46no education
01:02:47system that
01:02:49most people
01:02:50can afford.
01:02:51That you're
01:02:52watching,
01:02:53what, you
01:02:54know, you're
01:02:55watching the
01:02:55end of an
01:02:56empire, when
01:02:57the people at
01:02:58the top hold
01:02:59on to the
01:03:00great wealth
01:03:01that the
01:03:02empire gave
01:03:03them, that
01:03:04they don't want
01:03:05to lose,
01:03:06understandably.
01:03:07So they push
01:03:08the burden
01:03:09off onto
01:03:10those who
01:03:11can't help
01:03:12themselves.
01:03:12So a
01:03:13country that
01:03:14gives Elon
01:03:15Musk $300
01:03:16billion of
01:03:18personal wealth
01:03:19will not
01:03:21help a
01:03:22veteran who
01:03:24can't find
01:03:25a mortgage
01:03:25for three
01:03:27months.
01:03:28I mean, do
01:03:30you need more
01:03:31than that?
01:03:32And you know,
01:03:33if this is
01:03:35correct, then
01:03:36the only real
01:03:38question is
01:03:40how long
01:03:41the American
01:03:42people will
01:03:43tolerate what
01:03:44we are living
01:03:46through.
01:03:47And if I
01:03:47were at the
01:03:48top, that's
01:03:49what I'd be
01:03:50worrying about,
01:03:51and that's
01:03:51probably a clue
01:03:52as to why I'm
01:03:53not at the
01:03:54top.
01:03:55If only the
01:03:56Americans had a
01:03:57choice, and there
01:03:58really isn't a
01:03:59choice.
01:04:00The Democrats
01:04:01are saying,
01:04:01well, we are
01:04:02not Trump.
01:04:03But they are
01:04:04Trump.
01:04:05They're the same
01:04:06policy as
01:04:07Trump.
01:04:07Trump's doing
01:04:08to the
01:04:09working class
01:04:10what the
01:04:11Democrats
01:04:11dreamed of
01:04:13doing but
01:04:13couldn't do,
01:04:14basically.
01:04:16So there
01:04:16really isn't an
01:04:18alternative here.
01:04:19As we've said
01:04:19before, do we
01:04:21need a third
01:04:21party?
01:04:22We need some
01:04:23solution that
01:04:25is not on
01:04:26the spectrum
01:04:28right now.
01:04:29I don't know
01:04:30what that
01:04:30solution will
01:04:31be, but it's
01:04:31going to be
01:04:32not the
01:04:32Republicans and
01:04:33not the
01:04:34Democrats.
01:04:34that's
01:04:36what's
01:04:37open.
01:04:37What on
01:04:38earth is
01:04:38going to
01:04:39be the
01:04:39solution?
01:04:40I don't
01:04:40see a
01:04:41solution, so
01:04:42I see just
01:04:44a continual
01:04:44shrinkage of
01:04:46the similar
01:04:47party, no
01:04:48matter which
01:04:50party or
01:04:50which president
01:04:51is in
01:04:51power.
01:04:52I don't
01:04:53see a
01:04:53change in
01:04:54this policy.
01:04:54I think
01:04:55the military
01:04:57is going
01:04:58to be
01:04:58gaining
01:04:58with the
01:05:00war in
01:05:02Ukraine and
01:05:03against
01:05:03China.
01:05:04against the
01:05:05Baltics
01:05:05here, as
01:05:07it is in
01:05:09Germany, but
01:05:11that's not
01:05:12going to be
01:05:12the economy.
01:05:14The stock
01:05:14market isn't
01:05:15the economy.
01:05:16The economy
01:05:16is going to
01:05:17be left just
01:05:18in the way
01:05:18that you
01:05:18described,
01:05:19Richard.
01:05:19It's going
01:05:20to be a
01:05:21mess, and
01:05:22the voters
01:05:23are not
01:05:24going to
01:05:24have much
01:05:24to say
01:05:25about it.
01:05:25No, and
01:05:26one of the
01:05:27reasons we
01:05:30have been
01:05:31talking, and
01:05:32I believe
01:05:33it's the
01:05:33correct thing,
01:05:34we've been
01:05:35talking about
01:05:36a declining
01:05:37empire as
01:05:38a larger
01:05:38context for
01:05:40much of the
01:05:41particulars.
01:05:42I think it
01:05:43is very,
01:05:43very significant
01:05:45that it's only
01:05:46people like us
01:05:47who talk like
01:05:48that.
01:05:48If you listen
01:05:49to Republicans
01:05:50or the
01:05:50Democrats,
01:05:51not a word.
01:05:53Everything is
01:05:54reduced to
01:05:55this detail
01:05:56or that.
01:05:56They won't
01:05:57cut the
01:05:57veterans as
01:05:59badly as
01:05:59the Republicans
01:06:01do.
01:06:02They won't.
01:06:03That's it.
01:06:03We are
01:06:04Trump light.
01:06:05You don't
01:06:06want to
01:06:06drink Pepsi,
01:06:07drink Pepsi
01:06:08light.
01:06:09You don't
01:06:09want Trump
01:06:10vote.
01:06:11That's what
01:06:11they did in
01:06:12Canada.
01:06:12That's what
01:06:13they are going
01:06:13to be doing
01:06:14in Europe
01:06:15in the
01:06:15elections to
01:06:16come, at
01:06:17least I
01:06:17think so.
01:06:18That's what's
01:06:19certainly worrying
01:06:19the leading
01:06:20politicians
01:06:21there.
01:06:22But no
01:06:23one said,
01:06:23you know,
01:06:24Biden didn't
01:06:24say a word
01:06:25about a
01:06:25declining
01:06:26empire.
01:06:27Trump didn't
01:06:27say a word
01:06:28and Kamala
01:06:29Harris didn't
01:06:29say a word.
01:06:30None of
01:06:31them can
01:06:31even
01:06:32entertain
01:06:33a larger
01:06:34context.
01:06:35For them,
01:06:36there is no
01:06:37contextual
01:06:38problem.
01:06:39The larger
01:06:39everything is
01:06:40okay.
01:06:41It's just
01:06:41we have to
01:06:42adjust our
01:06:43minor
01:06:44navigation.
01:06:45It's the
01:06:45attempt of
01:06:46people who
01:06:47are fundamentally
01:06:48supports of
01:06:50the status
01:06:51quo.
01:06:51A little
01:06:52this, a
01:06:53little that,
01:06:54center left,
01:06:55center right.
01:06:56Mr.
01:06:56Trump gained
01:06:57office by
01:06:58suggesting he
01:07:00wasn't part of
01:07:02that broader
01:07:02consensus, but
01:07:05he was, and
01:07:06he's proving it
01:07:07to us now.
01:07:09Yeah.
01:07:11Thank you so
01:07:12much, Richard and
01:07:12Michael, for being
01:07:13with us today.
01:07:14great pleasure
01:07:16as always.
01:07:17Same here.
01:07:18Talk to you
01:07:19soon.
01:07:20Talk to you
01:07:20soon.
01:07:20Bye-bye.