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00:00Let's talk a little bit about number 17 Sandman. I know he's a horse that you like a little. We have a replay of his big win in the Arkansas Derby where he comes from way back, strikes the front, but then has to sustain that rally. And we're likely going to see this horse doing his best running late, right?
00:16Yeah, for sure. And I'll definitely admit that he certainly got the setup of all setups that day. And if he didn't win the Arkansas Derby with that insane early pace, it would be hard for me to ever look to him actually winning at this level. But he did what he was supposed to do. There are some concerns with some of the antics. I mean, in the Southwest Stakes, he essentially stood on his head coming out of the starting gate, which cost him probably the win that day. And his recovery in that race was remarkable.
00:42You know, in the Kentucky Derby, I'm sorry, in the Arkansas Derby, once he made the lead, he started to kind of goof around. I think he hit the lead so early in that race that he was looking around for the competition because the horses went so fast early and came back to him.
00:55So I do have some cause for concern in the Derby where, you know, do those antics show up? I talked to Mark Cassie at the trainer's dinner on Tuesday night, and he is extremely confident in this horse.
01:06He thinks he's just a very intellectual individual who, you know, once his job is done, he kind of looks for something else to do.
01:14And he's pretty confident that come Derby day, he's going to have plenty to focus on.
01:17But Sandman, for me, is a developing horse. He's got the right running style for the way the race at least appears that it's going to go on paper.
01:25He just needs to work out a trip, which is the same thing we could say for nearly every closer in the field.
01:30Alexa, while I have you, give us a thought or two on Sovereignty right next door to the number 18.
01:34Yeah, Sovereignty is very talented. He's definitely a major player in here.
01:40From a value standpoint, I've chosen to fade him after what I consider a little bit of a step back in the Florida Derby and use some other longer price contenders.
01:51And I faded him last out in the Florida Derby. He was the favorite, lost, got second to Japan Street, who would have been popular in here.
01:57But unfortunately, had the injury and took him out of the game.
02:00I like him more than a little bit. I'll go on record, and I think he's the best horse in the race.
02:03There we go.
02:04Yeah, I thought his fountain of youth, whenever a Bill Mott horse comes off a layoff and runs that well off of the bench in such a high caliber field, I take notice.
02:15Yeah, I think we got to the point with these horses where they're just not allowed to lose anymore.
02:21And it's a common thing whenever a horse runs second.
02:23It's like, oh, he got beat.
02:24You know, he took a step back.
02:26And maybe he wasn't as brilliant in the Florida Derby as he was in the fountain of youth.
02:30But I think we hold losses against horses far too much and weigh it far too heavily.
02:34And I think you're going to see it in the odds.
02:36Because I think, I am 95% certain that Sandman is going to be the second choice.
02:40And Sovereignty is going to offer substantial more value.
02:43And keep in mind, he has a win over Churchill Downs.
02:47And in that race, he decimated both the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby winners.
02:52Darren, not only are you a very good handicapper and a very good-looking fellow, but you're also a horse owner.
02:59And one of the groups that you own with is trained by Ethan West, the trainer of Chunk of Gold.
03:05Yeah, I roasted him at the dinner where we were up there.
03:08And I said, I've been buying $2,500 horses with you for five years.
03:11What the hell am I doing standing up here interviewing?
03:13Why am I not sitting down there with you guys with a horse?
03:16But yeah, I mean, Ethan is an incredible horseman.
03:20He's honest.
03:21He's forthcoming.
03:22He always gives you information that exactly how your horse is doing.
03:26He's not afraid to tell you whether it's good news or bad news.
03:28And the thing about I love him is he rides these horses.
03:31He works them, not just gallops them.
03:32In our workouts with our horses, he literally works the horse and then gets off them and
03:37lets us know how the horse is doing and gives us his recommendations.
03:40I don't think there's any pre-derby jitters for Ethan West.
03:43Nothing like that's going to get this horse beat.
03:45It's just a question of is he good enough.
03:47Number 20 is Owen Almighty, and he feels like one of the longer shots in the field.
03:52Some outside speed.