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00:00Who's the top pick this year?
00:02Hey, maybe they're going to accuse me of being a homer up here in New York,
00:05but I'm going to go with Grande, who is the runner-up in the Wood Memorial.
00:08This is a horse for trainer Todd Pletcher.
00:10It's interesting, Pletcher and owner Mike Rapoli have come in with the favorite
00:14or the presumptive favorite the last two years with fierceness and forte,
00:17but had nothing but heartache.
00:19Now they come in with a long shot in Grande, but this is a son of Curlin.
00:22Tons of pedigree to suggest he's going to like the mile and a quarter.
00:25I think he's super versatile.
00:26He showed that he can have a plan B coming from further off the pace
00:30last time out in the Wood, and I think he's just ascending at the right time.
00:34He can take another step forward in terms of those buyer speed figures,
00:37and I think he's right there.
00:38He's going to sit the trip behind some of that early pace
00:41and then make his move maybe a little similar to the way Mystic Dan
00:44won this race last year.
00:46Okay, Matt, I'm Venmo-ing you $100 right now, so just check your phone.
00:50It's in there.
00:51We want to know how are you going to bet the Kentucky Derby this year
00:55with that $100 that I just sent on over to you.
00:57Give us some of the ways you're going to play it.
00:59Absolutely, and listen, I'm going to, of course,
01:02put $50 to win on Grande as my top pick, but listen, I'm not foolish.
01:07Journalism is a monster of a horse, and you're a presumptive post-time favorite,
01:12although there's a lot of Metallica fans out there apparently
01:14when you look at the advanced wagering because Enter Sandman
01:16is taking a lot of money.
01:17So, listen, I'm playing Grande and Journalism up top in my trifecta.
01:23So, when we play out these vertical wagers, in the number one position,
01:26I have both Grande and Journalism.
01:28Then in the second position, Journalism, Grande obviously continued,
01:31but I add two other horses.
01:33Burnham Square, a horse that I really was impressed by
01:36when I was on site last week at Churchill Downs.
01:38He's been working so well, winner of the bluegrass.
01:41And then, of course, Sovereignty, super classy horse
01:44who has long been pegged as a major Kentucky Derby player
01:47since he won the Street Sense at Churchill Downs last year.
01:50Then in my third position, I throw in a couple of other big prices.
01:53I agree with you that Rodriguez is the most likely of the speed horses
01:56to hold on for maybe a piece, and so he's kind of in that third position.
02:00And then you look at some horses like Tiztastic and Chunk of Gold and Coal Battle,
02:06all horses that I really like who should sit the right sort of trip,
02:10kind of sitting just off the pace in terms of Coal Battle
02:12and Tiztastic and Chunk of Gold, Tiztastic a little bit more of a deep closer,
02:17but certainly very talented.
02:18Then when you go with the Xacta, same sort of ticket structure basically,
02:22Journalism, Grande up top, including a few other prices
02:25underneath all the horses that I already mentioned.
02:27And then I got to give a shout out to my dad
02:29because when I went to the track, he taught me how to play horses,
02:33and he got me playing $2 show bets when I was 10 years old.
02:37And so for my dad, I got to put $2 on Chunk of Gold to show
02:41because that's the sort of bet my dad would have made at Penn National
02:44back in 1990 when he took me to the track for the first time.
02:47Matt, what's so great about that is I think we all have the stories
02:52with mom, dad, grandma, grandpa, someone who kind of took us to the track
02:56and who took us under their wing and started to teach us the races.
02:58And so you've got that sentimental wager there for pops.
03:02But what I like about what you did is you've got a way where you could make
03:07a ton of money off that $100.
03:09Like if that trifecta hit in the correct way, we were showing some of the payouts
03:13earlier for like pick fives and pick sixes and explaining that if you get
03:18the right connection on Kentucky Derby Day in the derby race or in the races
03:22leading up to the derby, it's one of the biggest days of the entire year
03:26in horse racing wagering.
03:27You could literally have a life changer.
03:30Like for example, let's say your trifecta came back with Grande.
03:35And then in the second spot, you had a horse like Burnham Square in the second spot.
03:41And then in the third spot, you had a horse like a Rodriguez or a Cole Battle
03:45or someone like that chunk of gold.
03:47You could have a really big payout on that trifecta.
03:51Yeah, absolutely.
03:52I think that's the key with layering these exact as trifectas when you're doing
03:55these sort of vertical wagers is taking a stab, taking a shot so that you have
04:00an opportunity for a huge payoff, but also keeping yourself a little protected.
04:04Like I said, I'm going to include journalism and I'm going to include a horse
04:07like Sovereignty who's going to probably be a little bit of a shorter price.
04:09My big stance is I'm against Sandman.
04:11I just think that horse needs to learn how to run in a straight line.
04:14And until I see him do that, I'm not going to bet him in the Kentucky Derby.
04:17But obviously that Arkansas Derby was very impressive.
04:19But, you know, it's one of those things where let's say even journalism wins.
04:24But if you still have Burnham Square or Grande finish underneath,
04:27chunk of gold finish underneath, you're still going to get a really handsome payout.
04:31So even with a favorite winning, you can still get paid out really well
04:34in these exact as trifectas on Derby Day.