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00:00conference championship weekend around the NFL and with two games between four
00:05teams hoping for two spots in New Orleans there are so many Sunday
00:10specials to dive through and not just to find a nice plus-money price but also
00:15how we see these games playing out in the individuals that will dictate what
00:20we witness this weekend DRS most passing yards between the four quarterbacks in
00:25our two matchups come Sunday Mahomes has the highest passing yards prop of 249
00:31and a half both Josh Allen and Jaden Daniels kind of around the same number
00:36223 and a hook right now for Washington's rookie 230 and a half for
00:41Buffalo signal caller of course we have talked about Jalen Hurts and based maybe
00:45on the knee ailment only 179 and a hook if you had to look at one of those
00:51quarterbacks to throw for the most yards come Sunday afternoon who would
00:55you wager on you're probably I mean Patrick Holmes rightfully so at the plus
00:59130 because he's going against a defense that could you probably get
01:02after that secondary but the same thing it's a shame that Jalen Hurts is a
01:04little bit banged up let's just say he comes in full throttle with AJ Brown and
01:08Devonta Smith on the outside and now you also have a defense that's trying to
01:12stop Saquon Barkley that is a monster price at 750 and we're not understanding
01:16that one of these games is like college football okay and we're supposed to get
01:19800 plus yards of offense you're gonna throw it all around the lot like you
01:23can is it gonna be a surprise if 275 yards possibly wins it this weekend
01:29between these two football games as the leader Hurts can get that a plus 750
01:32would I bet it no cuz I don't think that's the the MO for their success here
01:36but if you're taking a look at just game script themselves we understand the
01:39Eagles have the best secondary in football it's hard to throw on them but
01:42if you are the filled up the Eagles up double digits in the second half and you
01:46say wow Daniel's gonna throw the football 45 plus times that's not a bad
01:49price at plus 260 and the same way you look at Josh Allen were you saying okay
01:53Kansas City's got a great defense but if they're down double digits in the second
01:57half Josh Allen goes from 28 pass attempts to 38 pass attempts it does
02:01make some sense I understand as I said where my homes is plus 130 that's not
02:06where I look if you said Donnie give me the two bets that you would rather take
02:09I'm not taking my homes I'm not taking hurts it would be between Josh Allen and
02:13Jade and Daniels because I think the game script will allow them to throw
02:16more than the two other quarterbacks and I think that's a natural thought of
02:20course Jaden Daniels is the largest underdog of this weekend his team is
02:24catching six and a half points sure he has overcome the odds throughout his
02:28rookie season to win games outright as a dog in both of his first two career NFL
02:34playoff matchups on the road but when you look at his number Donnie if the
02:39Eagles are going to be in full command I don't think it's a shootout I don't
02:43think they are going score for score on either side I think it is that Philly
02:47defense winning the day in containing the sensational rookie on his historic
02:52run I do believe Josh Allen makes some sense because if you believe like a lot
02:57of the public does that Buffalo is finally the team and is the time right
03:02now able to knock Kansas City off of the mountain atop the AFC Josh Allen needs
03:08to have a career day where he throws for a buck 27 like last week against
03:13Baltimore and the Bills win that turnover margin three zip that's
03:18probably not how this game plays out 275 for Josh Allen through the air 50
03:24rushing yards and they contain Kansas City enough on that side of the football
03:28to me that's the picture for Buffalo so that would be the way I would bet this
03:33although I do think Patrick Mahomes has a big day against the Buffalo Bills
03:39let's talk about most rushing yards and of course Donnie when your prop is 125
03:44and a hook and nobody else has a rushing yards prop north of 60 you're going to
03:49be a hefty favorite to have the most rushing yards of the weekend at minus
03:53310 so let's basically say Saquon Barkley versus the field is there any
03:57chance come this weekend Saquon Barkley does not end up with the most individual
04:03rushing yards of the conference championships probably just by injury
04:06and that's a horrible way to bet say I'm just gonna fade him because he might
04:09get injured at that point but that's where his number is listed at a minus
04:12310 price in a football game that's not like saying hey it's a basketball game
04:15I have one game to play I just need my guy to get like 20 points when he
04:19averages 30 that's an easy layup understand that there is a chance you
04:23can get injured we're not expecting it but I'm not laying a minus 310 price
04:26point I'll tell you I would bet it's not cook at 10 to 1 it's not gonna be
04:29Daniels at 11 the one it's not even gonna be Josh Allen 16 to 1 Brian
04:33Robinson jr. 23 to 1 because if you do have one of those game scripts which you
04:38saw last week where you control the tempo you're saying you know what we're
04:41gonna use all three downs to get a first down and a fourth and one I'm gonna run
04:45my quarterback around the head to get two yards and continue that let's just
04:48say Brian Robinson jr. can hit a home run because the one thing we did see
04:52last week I understand it was snowy Kyron Robinson had limited carries and a
04:56lot of yards and when we're talking about Brian Robinson jr. if their game
05:00script is correct and they have a lead why can't he approach 75 plus yards in
05:05this game which will put you in the ballpark and normally you wouldn't say
05:08like well why would you do that it's 23 to 1 it's not 2 to 1 it's not 3 to 1
05:12it's 23 to 1 and he had 15 carries for 77 yards and two scores last week
05:20against Detroit Kyron Williams 19 carries a buck Oh for against the birds
05:25by the way Matthew Stafford did end up throwing for 324 yards that could be
05:30another way of looking at Jaden Daniels leading conference championship weekend
05:34in passing yards if the commanders are trailing for a majority of those final
05:38two quarters most receiving yards of the weekend Travis Kelsey the shortest
05:43number to plus 420 Terry McLaurin barely back AJ Brown at a 5 to 1 price just
05:50three grabs for 24 yards for AJ Brown in the first two games the RS for
05:55Philadelphia in this postseason yeah you look at that and you would normally
06:00think it's Kelsey but doesn't it feel like there's like a ceiling on Kelsey
06:03like he's gonna hit that number but maybe 80 yards maybe 90 yards at a
06:08table done he just went over I understand that but I'm just saying like
06:10what that focal points is you want to look at the ceiling of players and AJ
06:14Brown who can absolutely eat which might only need four catches they get a hundred
06:19and ten yards in that direction that's a nice price point at 5 to 1 Shakir who
06:23have his advantages worthy there's too many like but you say fish in the pond
06:27on that team to actually try to say yeah this guy's gonna get eight or nine
06:30targets alone but I could see AJ Brown with a eight to nine target day when you
06:35know he's about the big play and he says he's finally healthy and ready to go
06:39that's where I would look at here give me that nice five to one price on AJ
06:43Brown with a couple big catches I agree as well if you want a longer shot not
06:49listed in those top five numbers the army brown at 14 to 1 for the
06:54commanders 89 receiving yards in the opening game against Tampa 98 last week
07:00against the Lions the guy has come on incredibly strong for this commanders
07:05passing attack if he wanted a little bit of value right now time for the pick six
07:10for conference championship Sunday in the NFL four games are two games four
07:17teams two spots at stake in New Orleans for Super Bowl 59 a slightly different
07:23pick six as we kind of move things around a little bit still a touchdown
07:27scorer still our favorite yardage prop still our favorite under of the weekend
07:31and all line with a sprinkle of plus money but then an exact score prediction
07:36for both the AFC in NFC championship games Donnie right side let's start with
07:43the guy you think is going to hit Pater who was your favorite anytime touchdown
07:46scorer of championship weekend a lot of really good players to choose from a
07:51lot of guys you figured he'd be getting the football here in the red zone but
07:54sometimes you have to look at price point if you were to ask me who's the
07:56favorite one to get in most people just say Saquon Barkley he's minus 310 and
08:01plus depending where you're shopping and including the fan those sports but for
08:04me it was simple opportunities inside the red zone I think it's gonna be Josh
08:08Allen he was a plus 100 just a few days ago he's now a minus 110 I still like
08:12that price point if the Buffalo Bills will be competitive and look to win this
08:16football game they're going to score some rushing touchdowns and he's one of
08:19those rushing touchdowns gonna be from Josh Allen give me him at minus 110 to
08:24rushing touchdowns last week against Baltimore to rushing touchdowns in the
08:28divisional round a year ago against Kansas City at least 68 rushing yards in
08:33all three playoff matchups against the Chiefs I do believe he is going to
08:38utilize his legs as well we talked about AJ Brown just a little bit ago three
08:43grabs on ten targets that's it for 24 yards so far in the two playoff victories
08:49for Philadelphia Jalen hurts his mobility and his effectiveness is going
08:54to be a huge storyline to monitor for Sunday in Philly but I think he's going
08:59to be at least more mobile in the pocket in Philly is going to air the football
09:03more than we expect AJ Brown anytime touchdown to get back into the good
09:08graces of the offense in Philly putting down inner excellence and finding the
09:14end zone at a plus 140 price DRS favorite yardage prop of the weekend is
09:20who and in which game buying extremely low at this point DeAndre Hopkins you
09:25take a look at him at the fan blue sportsbook 24 and a half had a terrible
09:28game this week this is what we call buying low he was 80 I 89 90 yards last
09:33week oh look at that he's gonna pay a premium you're not gonna do this year
09:36you are going to have to throw the football against the Buffalo Bills and
09:39if you're expecting close to 50 points you must engage the Buffalo Bills which
09:42means on the outside we're not asking for a lot of yards heck that might be to
09:46your two catches alone here DeAndre Hopkins look at the way he's performed
09:50throughout the season for Kansas City he's always right in that range if not
09:53going over believe at one point either nine of ten games or ten of eleven
09:57having at least 20 plus yards receiving I'll take them over 24 and a half
10:00receiving yards that's a low bar to clear and I think he clears it plays
10:04perfectly into my favorite yardage prompt which is Casey's quarterback of
10:08course Patrick Mahomes over 249 and a half passing yards I'll give you the
10:13stats and the sample size and the reasons why based on history with more
10:18history at stake it's a conference championship pick six next we continue
10:23our conference championship Sunday pick six live right here on the early line on
10:28sports grid DRS you mentioned DeAndre Hopkins over 24 and a half a buy low
10:34spot on a consistent wide out for Kansas City it goes hand in hand with my
10:39favorite yardage prop of the weekend as well Patrick Mahomes over 249 and a half
10:43passing yards there is an idea that this Chiefs team is not exactly the one we
10:48have seen as of late and I understand that not overwhelming on the offensive
10:53side of the football just a hundred and seventy seven yards for Mahomes last
10:57week against Houston but look at what he has done in AFC championship games of
11:02old last year 241 the only time he did not throw for at least 294 yards in his
11:09AFC championship game life and that features five previous games even before
11:15a season ago make it all seven years he has been the starter starting said AFC
11:20championship game I think he goes over this number I think we see some offense
11:24on Sunday in Arrowhead and I think Patrick Mahomes is a big reason why
11:28Kansas City gets back to a third consecutive Super Bowl but we'll talk
11:33about those final score predictions in just a little bit I found a difficulty
11:39RS to find an under that I truly loved this weekend where did you go I went
11:44with a kicker and I went with the narrative that you must be aggressive be
11:49aggressive you ever hear that channel the sideline there from the cheerleaders
11:53yeah they'll chant that out there Tyler Bass we don't need you to be aggressive
11:56this weekend under six and a half kicking points which means two field
11:59goals and one extra point would go over but I'm playing this as we ain't
12:03settling for field goals it for the Buffalo Bills sure maybe a 51 yard it
12:07was not close to the end zone if the Buffalo Bills get to the red zone with
12:10Josh Allen and fourth and short when I say short fourth and three or less
12:14they're going for it here no doubt in my mind if you want to slay that dragon
12:18that Kansas City is kicking field goals isn't going to get it done have a Tyler
12:23Bass under six and a half kicking points for the Buffalo Bills I think
12:27it's a great look DRS a guy that has struggled at times but it's been pretty
12:31good here throughout this postseason run for Buffalo but I would agree I think
12:36you have to be aggressive there is some thought that the Chiefs can't give you
12:41the offensive onslaught as in years past so just keep the ball out of my homes his
12:46hands I think we have learned that the best guideline to beating Kansas City
12:50year-over-year season-over-season game-over-game in the most significant
12:55of them is outscore and outpace KC play from in front and maybe the Chiefs are
13:01going to struggle to keep up my favorite under and again it's not a favorite
13:06under but it's the under in the second half between the commanders and the
13:10Eagles of 23 and a hook I don't think this is a dead under 1714 game but I do
13:16think the Eagles will be in command yes I guess pun intended and I do think
13:21Philadelphia limits what Jaden Daniels does offensively and I think that will
13:26come to a close in the second two quarters I actually do think it could be
13:31tight early I think the Eagles start to extend late and I do not think we see
13:36the uneasy final five minutes against Washington as we did last week against
13:42LA I'll go under 23 and a half in the second half of that NFC championship
13:47game all line who you looking at it was either between AJ Brown and Devontae
13:52Smith one catch for 30 yards so the price point was a little bit better for
13:56Devontae Smith so I went that way at a plus 280 price he's done that four times
14:00this year already and once again you're trying to bet into the game script not
14:03just because you like a player thinks he might be able to get open deep if you're
14:06a selling out to stop the run and conditions are good for passing which
14:10they will be in Philadelphia the play-action pass could be huge one
14:13catch for at least 30 yards to Devontae Smith at a plus 280 price Donnie I would
14:20love is if as you kind of predicted or alluded to that early in the game Philly
14:25goes all right you don't think Jalen hurts is fully healthy watch this
14:29Bob first play right there Devontae Smith and I bet Jalen hurts over his
14:34passing yards number that seems minimal at 179 and a half I'm gonna go all line
14:39Saquon Barkley 175 rushing plus receiving at a plus 220 number Donnie I
14:45don't think you should bet an under on Saquon Barkley's rushing yards prop this
14:50week and if you are going to look at the over 150 plus on the ground for Saquon
14:56is plus 180 but the reason I want to add up rushing plus receiving is I do agree
15:01that Saquon Barkley is going to be a factor in terms of what they do
15:05offensively even if Jalen hurts is healthier than we estimate it's not like
15:10Saquon Barkley's gonna have 14 touches in the game he's going to flirt with 30
15:14as he did last week in the division around against LA went well over these
15:19numbers of 175 plus in a week number 16 against the commanders he didn't have
15:25any receiving yards had a hundred and fifty on the ground in week number 11 big
15:30play Barkley for sure a hundred and ninety eight scrimmage yards he's going
15:35to factor into this NFC championship game especially if Philly is about to
15:39head to New Orleans for a Super Bowl 59 bid Saquon Barkley 175 plus rushing plus
15:47receiving at a plus 220 number all right final score prediction time DRS let's
15:53start in the AFC AFC championship game in Arrowhead the Chiefs and ever so
15:59slight favorite by 26 cents on the money line and a total of forty eight and a
16:04half now who wins the score it's the home of the Chiefs of course Kansas City
16:1427 to 24 game probably goes over the total stays right around that number but
16:18in the end Kansas City will prevail because they are at home they have
16:21patchwork homes they have Andy Reid that's where I went all right NFC
16:26championship game from you as well as we send you into the money line in just a
16:31little bit will your birds join you in the big easy with a Super Bowl Lombardi
16:37trophy at stake it could be a good game here be right around that number and how
16:41about this the Philadelphia Eagles 27 the Washington Commanders 21 so if
16:45you're betting a team total for the commanders you cash in and right now at
16:47the fan blue sportsbook if you're betting the commanders you cover your
16:50spread everybody wins Eagles win you you you win your bet but the Eagles move on
16:54nobody loses nobody 27 21 and slightly over our total on Sunday in Philadelphia
17:03of 47 and uh-huh you will see Donnie right side there was no doubt about it
17:09come Sunday 9 a.m. Eastern Time a slightly earlier start for pro football
17:15today on conference championship weekend alongside Kevin Walsh and Joe Lisi the
17:21ERS have a ton of fun on Sunday we'll talk to you very soon yeah we're gonna
17:25find out if Joe Lisi is able to make it to the best Sunday and also the bigger
17:29question is Kevin gonna show up for work today on Moneyline if he doesn't I'll
17:32hold it down we'll have a power hour like you've never seen before but
17:36questions are there will Kevin be there we'll find out 11 a.m. on sports grid
17:41radio we end out the early line next one last segment here this week on the early
17:47line to set the stage for conference championship Sunday in the National
17:52Football League two games on Sunday kicking at 3 p.m. Eastern Time it's our
17:56first matchup in the NFC championship game between two divisional foes from
18:01the NFC East the Eagles and the commanders Philadelphia six and a half
18:05point favorite total at 47 and a half and then of course we go to our nightcap
18:11inside Arrowhead Stadium a familiar scene a familiar matchup the Buffalo
18:16Bills the Kansas City Chiefs for a fourth time in the last five NFL
18:20postseasons squaring off against one another this time for a berth in Super
18:26Bowl 59 in New Orleans a point-and-a-half spread in favor of KC
18:31now minus 122 on the money line that is it we are talking a quarter and then a
18:38penny of difference between those two prices on the money line for who is
18:42expected to win this game outright the total stands at 48 and a half Donnie
18:47gave you his final score predictions in that NFL conference championship weekend
18:52pick six I will now do the same Donnie and I very similar numbers and as Donnie
18:59alluded to and I will back up I do believe Kansas City wins this game
19:03outright 2824 I think it is great I think it will be a playoff game that
19:09lives in the history and the lore of NFL postseason action just like we have
19:13seen numerous times between the Bills and the Chiefs in the three previous
19:18matchups in the past four seasons but ultimately until somebody knocks Kansas
19:24City off that perch I am NOT going to bet that somebody does it could Buffalo
19:29sure but not just based on what KC has done in its own pedigree seven
19:34consecutive AFC championship game appearances six of them at home in
19:40Kansas City for Super Bowl bids three Lombardi trophies including the last two
19:45back-to-back Kansas City is the team that looks completely different in every
19:51playoff game than anything we have seen throughout the regular season and the
19:55Bills have the regular season number of the Chiefs Kansas City as you saw that
20:00playoff number the more important number in front of Buffalo KC 2824 in a
20:07game that I think features some more scoring than that total predicts at 48
20:11and a half I've already told you I think Patrick Mahomes and his passing yards
20:16prop as you see there is a big reason why 249 and a hook so what about the
20:22prediction for the first game of two on Sunday in the NFC title matchup Jaden
20:27Daniels is not a rookie Jaden Daniels and the commanders are not a feel-good
20:32scoring story albeit unlikely that they are here Washington is a bonafide
20:38contender so when I tell you Philadelphia wins by double digits it's
20:42not because I believe the commanders are outclassed just based on where they
20:47enter this matchup I had Philadelphia to win the NFC before the year I'm going to
20:53stick to my guns the Eagles win by 10 27 17 I do think the commanders historic
21:00run comes to a close as history tells us at a certain point even if it has been
21:05dramatic and historic a rookie quarterback in a conference
21:09championship game for the sixth time ever an NFL playoff history that is
21:15Jaden Daniels but no rookie quarterback has led his team to a Super Bowl
21:20appearance I don't think Jaden Daniels is a disaster I don't think the
21:24commanders look awful come Sunday I just think Philadelphia is better and I think
21:29the Eagles defense reminds us why 27 17 the Eagles get theirs
21:35Jalen Hurts plays very well and I think looks better than we expect given that
21:40left knee injury Saquon Barkley is a factor through the century mark for a
21:45third consecutive game this year against the commanders and in the postseason
21:50the Eagles offense gives you enough and the defense holds it down especially in
21:55that second half 27 17 Philadelphia wins fly Eagles fly to a Super Bowl bid in
22:03Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans I bet the Eagles at the end of the division
22:10around game on Saturday between the commanders and the Lions to win a Super
22:15Bowl they are now the favorites entering championship weekend I bet the
22:20Chiefs as they were taking on the Texans last week to win an AFC championship
22:25still believing that Casey would host an AFC title game and that is what we have
22:31Casey wins 28 24 in that AFC championship game the nightcap on Sunday
22:37the Eagles win comfortably 27 17 on Sunday I think it is a great day of
22:44football and I think it will set up a sensational Super Bowl matchup I know
22:49one the public does not want to see as it would be a rematch from just two
22:53years prior in Super Bowl 57 but it should be a good one nonetheless have a
22:58great weekend enjoy all the football the early line returns Monday 8 a.m. Eastern
23:04here on sports