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Transcript
00:00The NFL week 15 Sunday slate, you know our charge and our duty live right here on a football Friday
00:07on the early line. A preview, a breakdown, some betting thoughts on every single game on the
00:14Sunday slate. Bye weeks are a thing of the past now in the 2024 NFL regular season. They came to
00:21a close last week with six teams having an open weekend. Week 15 and beyond the final four weeks
00:27of this NFL regular season. The true true home stretch of week number 15 and beyond. No more
00:35bye weeks which means very full Sunday slates. 13 games on this Sunday. We had one last night.
00:43We have a doubleheader on Monday. That is three of the 16 when everybody is in action. So 13 Joe,
00:5213 games on Sunday for us to preview. And in that afternoon window, the late afternoon window
00:59for 25 p.m. Eastern time. It's as good as you will find any Sunday of any NFL season potentially
01:08ever. We have a game of the year potential game of the year five between two very short
01:15contenders in front runners to win either their conference crowns or perhaps Super Bowl 59
01:22in the Motor City. The Lions host the Bills. Detroit a two and a half point favorite. The
01:27total stands Joe at 54 and a half. Yeah, very interesting spot here for both these teams,
01:35right? Especially I mean the Bills coming off of that loss to the Rams a week ago on the road.
01:42And listen, a lot of people thought maybe a little bit of a letdown situation there for the
01:46Bills. But the Bills could have won that game, should have won that game. But now they got the
01:54Detroit Lions who many people believe is the team to beat this year coming out of the NFC. I think
01:59the Bills are going to treat this like a playoff game. I think the fact that the Bills lost that
02:05game last week to the Rams makes them extremely dangerous in this one. And with all those
02:11injuries on the defensive side of the ball for Detroit, it's kind of hard not to love the chances
02:17of Josh Allen and that offense to be able to get it done this week. And what should be the most
02:22entertaining game of of this week 15 slate. And that 54 and a half does loom very large. In fact,
02:30if it stays right there, it will be our highest over under of this 2024 NFL season. It will be
02:37the seventh game for Detroit playing with a total of 50 plus as they did last Thursday night on the
02:45full week of preparation after Turkey Day against the Packers. That game featured 65 points, went
02:51over a number around 52 and a hook. But Detroit in its previous six games with a total of 50 or
02:59higher under in four of six, it would be just the second game for Buffalo at 50 plus, which also
03:06includes last week against the Rams in what was the highest scoring game of this NFL season. 86
03:13combined points between the two sides. Buffalo will be an underdog. This line has worked down
03:19to a point and a half at moments throughout this week. Now closer to a field goal in favor of
03:24Detroit. Joe, I don't think we expect this number to get to three in favor of the Lions,
03:30even by the time we reach kick on Sunday afternoon in the Motor City. But I will say this.
03:36Buffalo has been an underdog three times this year. They are both one and two straight up
03:41and against the spread a game week to short week Thursday night game against Miami that the Bills
03:48went to South Florida booked as an underdog and won that game outright. Of course, it was
03:53where to a tongue of Iloa was injured in the third quarter, but the bills were booked as a,
03:58as an underdog two more times immediately after that against Baltimore and Houston
04:04lost both of those games outright did not cover three games for Buffalo as a dog this year
04:10under in all three, but that's the Buffalo of the past. The bills, Joe have scored 30 plus points
04:18in seven consecutive games. This Buffalo offense is a juggernaut right now led by the MVP favorite
04:26in Josh Allen. Yeah. And I mean, Ben, it's interesting because the bills have three
04:33losses on the season. If I'm not mistaken, all three of those came on the road.
04:38So they are really good at orchard park. Not there. They tripped up a little bit here on the
04:45road and listen, I don't see this Buffalo team losing two games in a row. I do think ultimately
04:53Jared Goff at home, they have extra rest. They have the rest advantage here at this particular
04:59point. But I, I still think this is going to come down to which quarterback makes the plays when it
05:06matters the most. And on any given Sunday, Ben, my money would be on Josh Allen at this point and not
05:13Jared Goff. And I think ultimately that's what it's going to come down to. Their yardage props
05:18are very similar, just separated by a single yard, as you can see right there. But Jared
05:24Goff's rushing yards prop is not quite what that is, Josh Allen. In fact, Goff does not have a
05:31number listed Josh Allen at 40 and a half, only 11 yards behind his lead running back in James
05:38Cook, Josh Allen leading rusher for Buffalo a week ago, 82 yards on the ground. Three rushing
05:44scores also had three passing touchdowns. First player in NFL history with three past touchdowns
05:50and three rushing touchdowns in the same game. Joe, what's really interesting about this one as
05:56well is those defensive woes for Detroit, but some good news because of the additional rest
06:03Aleem McNeil has been a full participant at practice despite still being in the concussion
06:08protocol this week. Josh Paschal has been out there at practice as well for Detroit's defense
06:15because Joe, without the defense at full strength, especially in the second half last week against
06:20Green Bay, you saw some of the issues. Green Bay scored 24 points in the second to make that a game
06:26in the Motor City on Thursday night. Yeah. And listen, it's, uh, you give Detroit all the credit
06:32in the world. They have had to overcome, you know, one of the losing, what Ben, one of the best pass
06:38rushers, if not the best pass rusher in the NFL and Hutchinson early on. And then, uh, ends alone
06:44there, uh, their leader in the locker room there, their linebacker, he goes down. I mean, they are
06:50trying next man up to a point, Ben, uh, and that works against some teams, but teams that have
06:57prolific offenses with crazy quarterbacks, that's going to be another, and that's going to get
07:02tested again this week, uh, against the Buffalo bills. The lions are the Superbowl favorites.
07:08And during the final four weeks of this season, it plus two 80 Buffalo second, best price to win
07:14the AFC fourth, best number to win a Lombardi trophy. What a matchup on Sunday. And it continues.
07:21I've already mentioned a few times how awesome this late afternoon slate is on Sunday for week
07:28number 15 around the NFL. We continue our previews and breakdowns live right here on a football
07:34Friday on the early line on sports grid at the same time to marquee match-ups that both could
07:41be the game of the week and maybe have a shot at being the game of the year. We started in Detroit,
07:47the lions and the bills Detroit booked as a two and a half point favorite 54 and a half is the
07:53total. How about the end state showdown in the Commonwealth in Philadelphia, the Eagles play
07:59host to the Steelers, two teams that top their divisions, two teams that both have at least 10
08:06wins this season, but a five and a half point spread in favor of Philly and a much lower total
08:13than what we are expecting to see in the Motor City. 42 and a half is the number between the
08:19birds and the Steelers. Joe, we know how good Pittsburgh is as an underdog, a perfect five and
08:25oh, outright, outright this season booked as a dog Philly is on a nine game heater, a win streak,
08:32but maybe with some internal conflict within that locker room. How do you break down this
08:38interconference and yet in state showdown between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia?
08:44Well, I mean, listen, you Philadelphia coming off the by not without drama on a nine game winning
08:51streak, which is so typical of Nick Sirianni and the Eagles. I can't even begin to tell you here
08:56a disgruntled wide receiver. And again, stop me if you've heard this before here, Ben, because
09:02it feels like it's rinse and repeat. And we mentioned it during the week, right? As long as
09:08the Eagles keep winning games, they'll be just fine. The problem is this number is very strange
09:16to a lot of people because of the history of the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road as an underdog.
09:22Now, usually when we're talking about the Steelers and Tomlin as an underdog on the road,
09:26it's usually two, two and a half, maybe a field goal. I mean, five, five and a half points on the
09:34road for the Steelers. It's almost as if the books are daring you to take the Pittsburgh Steelers,
09:40which is worrisome to me here, Ben. Listen, I think if Philadelphia plays its typical game and
09:48what they have done, they will choke out Pittsburgh because they'll make Russell Wilson be one
09:54dimensional in the second half without, by the way, is Pickens ready to go with that hamstring?
10:00Yeah, without having that deep threat, you make Russell Wilson one dimensional. We know what
10:06happens there. They're not going to be able to run. Neither team, I think, is going to be to run
10:10all that much in this game. All things being equal here, I think Philadelphia is the rightful favorite.
10:18And if they win, Ben, I think they win by way more than the five and a half points they're asking you
10:23to like. Joe, to your point, it feels as though the number is telling you just that. Philadelphia
10:30has covered in six of their nine victories on this win streak, not last week against Carolina
10:37because of how dominant the Byrds' defense has been the last two plus months as they have really
10:42kind of ingratiated themselves to Vic Fangio's system. They have gone under in six of nine wins
10:50as well. But in six of seven starts that Russell Wilson has made for the Steelers,
10:55Pittsburgh has played to the over, not your grandfather's Pittsburgh Steelers offense
11:01as of late. So Joe, let me ask you about that 42 and a half. Does it feel light? Does it feel
11:08correct? If the Eagles do what the odds makers expect, it went comfortably at home on Sunday.
11:14Does that favor the under of 42 and a hook? Yes, it does. Because I think Pittsburgh is going to
11:23find it difficult to hit pay dirt here. I mean, I think there are too many weapons right now
11:30for Philadelphia with extra rest and an opportunity to make a statement here.
11:36I think there's just far too many weapons against this Pittsburgh defense. There's not that many
11:42weapons. I mean, Najee's been great. Warren has been great. Russ has been great. But no Pickens
11:49playing from behind would worry me here in Pittsburgh. Yeah, it will be a little bit worrisome.
11:54And George Pickens, by the way, listed as doubtful. It's what Mike Tomlin told us earlier this week.
12:00Russell Wilson's number, 197 and a half below 200. Joe, it's really fascinating about this game
12:09as well. Is that Philly aerial attack three consecutive despite winning all three that
12:15Jalen Hurts is thrown for fewer than 180 yards. And there has been some conversation, some drama
12:22this week, perhaps between Hurts, the quarterback and his number one whiteout in AJ Brown. The odds
12:28makers know it too, in terms of the narrative 80 and a half against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense
12:35that does allow some pass yardage. Just so you know, we'll talk more about Brown later.
12:41Our number two up next. We welcome you to our number two of a football Friday live right here
12:46on the early line on sports grid. He is Gerwin Harry and I am Ben Stevens. Our charge each and
12:52every football Friday is a preview of every single game on the Sunday slate around the
12:58National Football League. Even if five weeks are done, even if that means 13 games, we will hit
13:05on every single one, some picks, some previews, and plenty of breakdowns in store over these next
13:12two hours in the second half of this second hour. By the way, a football Friday is never complete,
13:18Joe, without the services of big blue. Mike Bluett will be here as well on TEL across the
13:25Spiz Grizz network on a football Friday. Yeah, that's going to be a fun one here. I like this
13:32week 15 slate in the NFL is huge and of course we're ramping up. Bowls start next week there,
13:40Ben, not to mention a college football playoff and yep, back to full slates of college basketball
13:46this weekend as well. We've got the Army-Navy game for the 125th time on Saturday afternoon
13:53in Landover, Maryland. We have a bowl game tomorrow night as well at the FBS level
14:00in the Celebration Bowl between two FCS powerhouses from HBCUs in Jackson State and
14:08South Carolina State. Well, we have two really good FCS defenses on display, but of course we
14:14start here in this second hour with a week 15 Sunday slate. We talked about the marquee matchups
14:20in that late afternoon window kicking at 425 p.m. Eastern time. Plenty more still at 425 p.m. Eastern
14:28to look out here in this second hour. But of course, Joe, in prime time, that should always
14:33be one of the best games on the slate for a Sunday. And it is on Sunday night in Seattle,
14:39a matchup in the Pacific Northwest between the Packers and the Seahawks. Huge implications in
14:47this game for both sides. Seattle trying to maintain its lead in the NFC West after a Rams
14:54victory on Thursday night against San Francisco. Green Bay trying to bolster its position in that
15:00wildcard race within the NFC playoff standings. And as you see there, Joe, the Packers, a short
15:07road favorite in the Northwest on Sunday night. Yeah, and I mean, the Packers have only lost to
15:15the Lions, the Vikings, and the Eagles so far this season, right? And the Seahawks,
15:22a lot of people think at home might be getting a little disrespected here, not being the favorite
15:29in what used to be, Ben, one of the best home field advantages in all of the NFL with the 12th
15:34man there. But boy, oh boy, it's a question is we've seen the ups and downs of Geno Smith and
15:40this Seattle team, but they have been a different team after their bye week, their last bye week
15:48there. The defense looked like it was in shambles. Geno Smith, you know, you don't know which Geno
15:54Smith was showing up, but he has done a really good job of protecting the ball. He has also done,
16:01especially at home, they also have figured out the running game, which alleviates some of the
16:06pressure on Geno. Are you sold on this Packers defense or are you sold on this Seattle defense?
16:13I'm not sold on either, which is why I think points are coming in this game.
16:17I think it's a dead over in this one when it's all said and done. And we've seen a lot of overs
16:23from both these offenses, especially against people outside of their division. Would completely
16:30agree, Joe, with that sentiment, thinking we get some points on Sunday night in primetime.
16:35Seattle had played five straight unders entering the game against the New York Jets to open up
16:41December. That game well over last week against Arizona, maybe expecting it under like we saw
16:48in the first meeting between the Cards and the Hawks. It went well over Seattle, picking off
16:53Kyler Murray twice in the opening quarter and immediately converting it into 14 points and
16:59two touchdowns. The Seahawks are in pole position currently within the NFC West because of this
17:05win streak. Four game win streak for the Seahawks. They have won outright as an underdog in all four
17:13games. Green Bay has covered in three consecutive despite only winning two of those. They have gone
17:19over in two of three, but not all because of the fault of the Packers. They have scored 30 plus
17:25in three consecutive games. Joe, I would agree. I think we see some points on Sunday night. I think
17:31it is a really good game in the Mike McDonald defense that took a little bit of time for the
17:37Seahawks to adapt to has allowed 21 or less in this four game win streak. We'll see if that continues
17:44against Jordan Love and Green Bay on Sunday night. Again, when you look at these two teams, highly
17:51impactful game in terms of that NFC playoff picture. Green Bay right now feels firmly in a wild card
17:59spot, but they're trying to pick where they want to be. And I would just say that if you want to
18:06take on maybe the NFC South champion, Green Bay is not going to win the NFC North, but they can
18:12keep pace with the Vikings, perhaps the challenge for that top wild card spot to be that 5C to take
18:19on more than likely the NFC South champ that would be at this moment, the Buccaneers. And if you are
18:25the Seahawks, you are trying to hold on to a playoff spot and your divisional lead by just a
18:30half game in the NFC West. Yeah. I mean, we talked about this team earlier, Seattle, and the chances
18:39that they might be able to overtake the Rams here. I still liked the Packers, Ben. We talked about it
18:46before the season. I liked the Packers with a really good shot, not only to take down the NFC
18:52North, but also take down that NFC title and represent, and that be the team that represents
19:00the NFC in the Super Bowl. And of course that was always going to come down, we thought,
19:04to the Packers and Detroit once again. But my goodness, I mean, when you look at the Packers
19:09and the losses that they have had and who they have come against and the amount of margin of
19:15loss there, I mean, combined to those losses, Ben, it's still just 20 points. They are every bit as
19:21good as we thought they were going to be when the season started. It might be too late obviously to
19:27catch them for the NFC North title, but it ain't too late to jump on them to win the NFC and be
19:33representing them in the Super Bowl. They will have a home game next Monday night against the
19:38Saints. We should expect that to be a win as New Orleans will be with a backup quarterback more
19:43than likely for the remainder of this season. They'll have a road game against the Vikings
19:48that would be huge to determine seating within that AFC playoff picture. And quickly, Joe, I do
19:53want to hit on that point. We showed the NFC playoff picture earlier. We showed those championship
19:59odds in that conference. It seems to be a two-team race. Detroit, the short favorite, plus 145,
20:05followed closely by Philadelphia, less than $2 back. A larger drop-off from second to third
20:12than from first to second. The Eagles to the Packers, plus 320 for the Birds, plus 750 for the
20:18Pack. Now, Green Bay did not win a game on Thursday night against the Lions last week, but I think they
20:25proved, Joe, to your point, they can compete with anybody around this conference. Is there some
20:30viable value in Green Bay winning the conference crown within the NFC this season? Absolutely, Ben.
20:37I mean, I thought it was great value before the season started, and I think it's going to be great
20:43value here even now at, what, plus 750 here. The Packers are legit. The Vikings, obviously, we keep
20:53waiting for them to fall off, and they don't. But really, if it was anybody outside the Lions,
20:59it's the Packers for me, Ben. Yeah. Interesting. Interesting. Philadelphia's defense might have
21:05something to say, but I do hear the point. Joe, a really good one in Los Angeles on Sunday
21:11afternoon as well. Again, part of this marquee 425 p.m. Eastern window with huge playoff
21:18implications. We can discuss more on the other side, but the Bolts, a full field goal favorite
21:23against the Buccaneers on Sunday. 45 and a half is the total. Tampa's 1-3 straight looking to
21:31and challenge the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Is this a good game, Ben? Because the injuries,
21:39once again, piling up for Tampa Bay. Winfield Jr. out in that secondary, which could be
21:45problematic, and now Bucky Irvin with back issues again. I don't know how good this game is going to
21:51be. Some injuries on the other side for the Chargers as well. We shall discuss on the other
21:57side of the break on that. The 425 p.m. Eastern time window for the Week 15 NFL Sunday slate is
22:04as good as you will find, but will it be a good game in L.A. based on injuries? The Bolts and the
22:10Bucs, two teams firmly in playoff spots. Tampa now a lead once again in the NFC South trying to win
22:18the division for a fourth consecutive season. The Chargers trying to hold on to a wild card spot
22:24within the AFC in eight and five mark at this moment. L.A. Joe, three-point favorite,
22:30full field goal at home on Sunday inside SoFi Stadium. We'll get to Joe Ranieri here in just
22:38a moment here on the early line. 46 and a half is that total, by the way, for Sunday. Joe mentioned
22:4645 and a half is where the number is now. By the way, Joe mentioned the injuries that we will see
22:52for this game or perhaps not see as the guys will not be out there. Some injuries as well
22:58for the Chargers. Justin Herbert did not practice earlier this week. Limited participant for L.A.
23:04yesterday. Ladd McConkie trying to work his way back as well. Joe, if the injuries are there and
23:11there are more injuries for the Bucs, their injury report right now reads like a novel. Who do you
23:16think ends up with a victory on Sunday in SoFi? The team that does not turn the ball over, Ben,
23:24and listen, I think Baker Mayfield has been outstanding this year. I don't think he's
23:29getting enough credit for having to overcome a lot of injuries, especially with a couple of
23:35his biggest weapons there and Godwin and Evans being out. But now you still got White running
23:40the ball, but you know, not having Bucky Irving has been a huge part of this. It always seems
23:45that like they're taking two steps forward and three steps back. I think the crazy part about
23:52this and you mentioned with the injuries is that am I nuts to think that 45 and a half is too low
23:58in this game, given the injuries that we have and given how we've seen the Chargers defense
24:04against competent offenses. I don't think this is going to be a 17-14 game, Ben. I think this is
24:11going to be a crazy shootout and we already know Baker loves slinging it. He does have Evans and
24:17and of course he's got his tight end. He certainly has enough weapons, but I think this game is a
24:24crazy shootout. I would even look at team totals over in this one here, Ben. The Chargers have
24:30played to the under in 9 of 13 games this year. They want to establish the run which trains the
24:35clock. We do understand that, but where the Bucs are at fault is actually not up front defensively
24:42losing Antoine Winfield Jr. who was placed on injured reserve. That is never a good thing
24:48for Tampa. Early in the day, still some good games kicking at 1 p.m. Eastern time like this
24:54big one in the AFC in Houston. The Texans will host the Dolphins. The Texans fresh off a bye.
25:01They are still a team, Joe, in pole position within the AFC South. They are the only team,
25:07in fact, in this division with a winning record. They are 8-5. The Dolphins have some life
25:13in that AFC wildcard race. They have won 4 of their last 5. They need to keep stacking up wins.
25:19They are 6-7. Not a great spot for either team and what I mean by that is the trend perspective
25:26based on the number. The Texans just a 2.5 point favorite. Well, with C.J. Stroud as their starting
25:33quarterback, Houston as the favorite side since the beginning of last year, just 6-10-2 against
25:40the spread. Miami as an underdog with Mike McDaniel as its head coach, 8-12 ATS, but more
25:47importantly, Joe, especially with the number less than a field goal, 4-16 straight up. Can the
25:53Dolphins finally win a game outright as an underdog? No. Well, they might, but I'll tell you this, Ben,
26:01they're not winning it in the first half. If it ain't broke, let's not fix it here. We all know
26:07the C.J. Stroud issues and his Texans issues. They have come in the second half of games, Ben,
26:13where they have given up leads in the third and fourth quarter after adjustments have been made
26:19that C.J. Stroud, unfortunately, did not adjust to. In this particular spot, they've had extra
26:25rest, right? They've had some time to work on some things. Mixon, Mikko Collins look like they're
26:31going to be good to go here and we've seen the Miami defense take a step back. You know what
26:38you haven't seen take a step back and the most consistent thing about this Texans team has been
26:44this defense and their ability to get after the quarterback. Tua is a different quarterback when
26:50he is under duress. He's going to be under duress a lot in this game here. The Texans are 11-2
26:58against the number in the first half this year here, Ben. It's the best mark in the NFL next to
27:03the Detroit Lions. There is no way that they won't have the lead going into the break in this one.
27:10Now, whether they hold on to it in the second half is a different story,
27:14but I'm pretty confident at a pick-em price, I believe at home with extra rest,
27:19they will have a lead against this Dolphins defense going into the break.
27:24Houston minus 138 on the money line for that first half number. If you want to lay the point
27:29and a half with Houston in the opening half, it's plus 100. Not a bad look there either.
27:35Since Tua Tungabailoa returned from IR, the Dolphins have played five of seven games to the
27:41over. 46.5 is that total. So from 1 p.m. Eastern time back to the 4.25 p.m. Eastern time window,
27:49a huge one at altitude with a Broncos and Colts team both coming off a bye. If anybody is going
27:57to catch Denver in that AFC playoff picture, it's either Miami most likely or Indianapolis.
28:04Huge game for the Colts on Sunday. Big game for the Broncos to maintain that advantage for a
28:10wild card spot in the AFC playoff picture. Three and a half point spread in favor of Denver,
28:17who as a favorite this year. Joe, when Denver has been expected to win a game, they do,
28:23and often comfortably, they are perfect. 6-0 against the spread as the favorite side this
28:29season. Listen, Ben, to me, this is my favorite over of the week at 44.5. You have got Richardson
28:38now coming off a bye. Looks like the offensive line getting a little healthier for Indy. This
28:44defensive Denver over the last couple of weeks has been getting absolutely torched. And Jameis,
28:51don't look any further than what Jameis Winston did. So both of these teams, two of the top four
28:57fastest-paced teams in the NFL over the last eight weeks. I think we're going to get a ton
29:02of points in this one, Ben. I think it's going to be a good old shootout there in Denver.
29:07The Broncos had the second-best scoring defense entering that matchup against Cleveland before
29:12their bye, but they've actually gone over in 10 of 13 games this season. More from the Sunday
29:19Slate next. Live right here on The Early Line, we continue our preview of the Week 15 NFL Sunday
29:25Slate. It is a football Friday across the Spiz Grizz network. Next up, we look at some teams
29:32that are good versus other teams that at least record-wise, not so great. Another compelling
29:39game for the Kansas City Chiefs that the oddsmakers expect, at least based on the initial
29:45number, not to be overwhelmingly dominant nor impressive for KC. The Chiefs, of course, are a
29:5212-1 football team, but 10 of those 12 victories decided by just a single score. In fact, dating
29:58back to last year, the Chiefs are on a heater in single-possession games. They have won 15 in a row,
30:04that by far an NFL record. But covering numbers is a different story. Four-and-a-half-point favorite
30:12for KC on Sunday in front of the Dog Pound in Cleveland. A Browns team that is not all that
30:20great this year, Joe. And you get the full Jameis Winston experience at times. But they have been
30:26known to play spoiler to a good team or two throughout this season in the land. Might they be
30:33able to keep this game close against the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon? I absolutely think they can
30:40here, Ben. I mean, it's at some particular point here, it's not going to doink the field
30:48off the post and win. It's not going to be where they fumble the ball or get a block kick or every
30:55other way that Kansas City has won games here. And listen, kudos to them because they find
31:00themselves playing very close games and they have the right personnel, the right coach, and the right
31:06belief that they can win every close game they're in. And that's saying something. Not a lot, you
31:12can't teach that, Ben. Either you have that or you don't have it, and the Chiefs have it. However,
31:17there is a spot here, I think, where Cleveland and Stiles make fights here. I think this Cleveland
31:24defense has been better than they've been all year. They're healthier. You know, Miles has
31:30absolutely been out of control, so has Ward in the secondary. If Kansas City is not, if they just
31:37play that, hey, let's just try to keep it close, they could be in trouble in this game with this
31:42defense on the road. So yeah, I would only look at the dog in this one, and if I'm playing and
31:49taking the four and a half, I'm also putting a little something on the money line here. It would
31:54not shock me if Cleveland at home wins this game outright. So the Chiefs did not cover last week,
32:00of course, as they clinched their ninth consecutive AFC West Divisional crown against the LA Chargers.
32:07They were a four and a half point favorite. Same exact number this week, albeit on the road,
32:12against Cleveland. Six times this year, the Chiefs have laid less than a touchdown.
32:17They are four and two against the spread. It's about the only redeeming quality of the Chiefs
32:22covering a number this season. The average victory margin for KC is 4.2 points per game.
32:29That is 11th best in the NFL, despite being tied for the best mark alongside Detroit.
32:37But somehow, some way, they often create new inventive ways to win football games. This one
32:44expected to be close. I will say this, the Chiefs have gone under in three of their last four games,
32:50all against divisional foes though. The Broncos, the Raiders, the Chargers. They have gone over
32:56in their last three games against non-AFC West teams. Of course, the Browns reside in the AFC
33:02North. The largest spread that we have seen this season, the Baltimore Ravens, 16 and a half point
33:11road favorite in MetLife against the New York Giants. Of course, the Ravens coming off a bye,
33:18looking to straighten things out as they make their playoff push to be a true contender in the
33:23AFC. The Giants are awful. Drew Locke more than likely is going to miss this game. Back to Tommy
33:29Cutlets for the Giants. Good luck, New York. That's about all I have to say. Ben, this is so
33:37ridiculous, this line. I can't even begin to tell you. It is the fourth largest spread for a home
33:43underdog this century, Ben, this century. Wow. Fourth largest. And of course, it went through
33:50the roof once we learned that Tommy DeVito was going to be there. I mean, listen, Giants defense,
33:55middle of the road, right? And that's actually pretty impressive, especially when it comes up
34:01to points allowed. I mean, they have done, they have not quit, they have not rolled over. You're
34:07talking about an AFC versus NFC. All Baltimore needs to do is win this game. Why in the world
34:14would I lay that point on the road with Lamar and company where we've seen sometimes play down
34:21to their competition? No, thanks. I'll take the points. They have lost outright twice this year,
34:28had more than a touchdown favorite against the Raiders and against the Cleveland Browns. I don't
34:34think they're going to lose outright to win by three scores. That's a different story. Mike
34:39Blewett joins us on a football Friday. Next. It would not be a football Friday without Mike
34:45Blewett joining us here on the early line on sports grid. So thus, Mike Blewett is here
34:51and it is a football Friday in our second hour on the Spiz Grizz network. Big Blue, as always,
34:58we appreciate the time. Great seeing you on Tuesday night at the sports grid holiday party.
35:03We missed germinary, but we had a blast. We look to do the same with all three of us here
35:08on a football Friday on the yearly line. Oh yeah. Big party on Tuesday, Joe, you were missed,
35:14but it was good to see everybody in person, all in one spot. The sports grid kept running. Thanks
35:20to Joe and Scott Wetzel and Dave Sharapan and other people out there. But as far as last night,
35:30as far as last night was concerned, clearly the weather had a huge impact. I think we saw,
35:38we had 10 punts in the first 20 minutes of that game. So not a lot of action,
35:44just traded field goals in the first half. I think you saw the weather obviously had a huge impact,
35:49but another thing about those two teams is they both struggle in the red zone problem for the
35:55Niners. They ran zero plays in the red zone last night, but the Rams struggled over three
36:02in getting any touchdowns on the board. I think they've been underrated in terms of what the Rams
36:08have been able to do. I believe they've won seven of nine now. So they're on a really good run
36:13and they're getting healthier. I think they're a team that could be interesting in the playoffs.
36:19If for no other reason that Stafford and those two wide receivers making it hell for the opposing
36:25defense, they just have to figure out a way to punch the ball into the end zone in order to be
36:30even more dangerous, but they're live for the division. They're live to win a playoff game.
36:34The Rams are really impressive in the Niners. You can call it, if you hadn't already,
36:38you can call it a wrap on their season. Their upcoming schedule is even tougher than expected.
36:44So I don't expect Seattle to go down without a fight here for that NFC West crown.
36:51What are the chances that, I mean, they're right now sitting with that, with the lead. Does that
36:57change before the season's over? Do you think that the Rams win the NFC West?
37:01You have Seattle's upcoming games or the Packers, the Vikings at the Bears and then at the Rams. So
37:07count that week 17 game, January 5th to be a really important one. Obviously, excuse me, week 18 game.
37:15And then the Rams had beat the Niners last night. They're at the Jets. What's up Jets fans. You got
37:21Matt Stafford coming into town and then home games against Arizona and Seattle. So catching a little
37:26bit of a break where they don't really have to travel after they get back from the Jets.
37:31So if I had to bet on it right now, just say who wins the division. I think the Rams got a huge
37:38break getting that home game in week 18, but Seattle's defense, Joe, has played a lot better
37:47in these last six weeks. And I think that will pace them the rest of the way. So it is a coin
37:56flip. Both teams are really interesting. The Rams to me are more dangerous in a playoff scenario
38:02because of that offense. But I think Seattle week to week, I think they probably ended with more
38:07wins here down the stretch. The Rams a shorter price to win the NFC by a dollar. The Rams a
38:13better price to win the NFC West by 10 cents only at minus 105 to Seattle's plus 105 number. The
38:20Seahawks a home underdog on Sunday night against Green Bay. If they were to lose that game as the
38:26odds makers anticipate, even with a very short spread tied at the top, LA would have that direct
38:33head-to-head tiebreak advantage at least for the moment in a division that could come down to that
38:38regular season finale week number 18 blue. Let's go to the 425 p.m. Eastern time window on Sunday.
38:45More key matchups dot the slate in week 15, especially in that later afternoon portion. A
38:53game of the year potential. Game of the year five in the Motor City. Two of the four best prices to
38:59win Super Bowl 59 at this moment. The Lions the favorite. Fourth best number for Buffalo. A two
39:06and a half point spread in favor of Detroit. Total stands at 54 and a half. It would be the highest
39:12number of the year. If that's where it remains by the time we get to kick on Sunday short number
39:18competitive game expected and a lot of points is our thought entering Sunday in Detroit bullet.
39:25Will the game live up to the hype? I believe it will and I think everybody would be excited if
39:32we blow past that 54 and a half, but I don't expect that. I think we can come really close,
39:39but I think I expect what we've seen in a lot of bills games this year, which is a slower start,
39:46a lower scoring first quarter. I don't think the teams come out of the gate scoring touchdowns
39:52running up and down the field. I think an interesting number by the way, is the second
39:56quarter total, which is 16 and a half right now. It's being bet to the over. So find the best
40:01price that you can and I think that's something where these teams are checking each other early,
40:07not unlike a lot of playoff games and then the offenses ease into it. I'm not going to step in
40:12front of the Lions at home when they're laying less than a field goal and it's been a really
40:16difficult travel scenario for the bills, right? They had to go to LA where we put up 100 points
40:22and now they're back inside. Good for them, but in Detroit taking on a team that really takes
40:28advantage of these conditions. So I would lay the two and a half because I think the Lions get the
40:33win and I'm under on this game. What does it say about the bills future if they lose another game
40:43on the road? They got three losses. All three are on the road here. They go on the road again and
40:48lose here. What are we doing here with this with this bills team here? If they lose this game and
40:54the Lions win like you think it is, what is the ceiling really for the bills? Is it just the AFC
40:59championship? I don't think that's fair, but I know what you're driving at, especially if the
41:05Steelers rip off a few wins here to close out the season, they might end up as the two seed, right?
41:10The bills two seed or even one seed conceivably is on the line. If Kansas City falters here late,
41:17but this to me looks like the best version of the bills that LA spot was a very tough one for them,
41:27and I don't really criticize them that much other than the positives we've seen from the defense did
41:33not show up in LA. We probably want to see a little bit more of that now that Matt Milano
41:38is back in the lineup every week. We probably want to see a little bit more from the defense
41:43to get Micah Hyde back for said he's going to retire as a bill. So he's going for his last
41:48run. So they have veteran leadership here, which I like on this team, and I do think they
41:53remain dangerous, but I think you bring up a fair point, Joe, and saying like, all right,
41:57well, they're going to have to go on the road in Kansas City again, or is it just the same old
42:01thing where they just drop a road game because it's too cold out, or they can't get off to a
42:06good start, or they don't have their home crowd behind them. These are all fair questions to ask,
42:10but to me, this is the most dangerous that the bills have looked from time at an 11-6 record
42:17versus a 13-4 record does not change my opinion drastically of who they are.
42:24This will be the fifth consecutive year that Buffalo has won the AFC East in the previous four.
42:30The last three, they have been bounced in the divisional round. They have reached the AFC
42:34championship just once. They have been bounced from the postseason by the Chiefs in three of
42:39the previous four seasons. That is where Buffalo changes its narrative, as Mike Blewitt alluded to.
42:46Blewitt, let's get to the in-stage showdown, the Keystone Clash on Sunday in Philly. It's the
42:52Eagles and your Steelers. Five and a half points spread in favor of the Birds. Total stands at 42
42:59and a half, also in that 425 p.m. Eastern time window in a monumental matchup. How do you see
43:06it playing out? So this is an ideal spot to bet on the Steelers, right? Catching five and a half
43:13points, this is where Tomlin thrives. Even if they're not able to win the game, you'd think
43:19that the Steelers are able to keep it close. They're going to be really challenged. Obviously,
43:23this week, this is a very difficult spot, but we're going to see, I think, a real test for the
43:30Steelers in that they have allowed the fourth-least yards in the NFL rush to their opponents. So can
43:39they really step up and stop this rushing attack? Because Philly's passing attack was broken last
43:44week and has been broken for a while. So it's good against good when it comes to this. I'll
43:48take the points here, though. Yes, it certainly is. We'll talk to quarterbacks in a couple of
43:54other matchups on the Sunday slate in just a moment. As Football Friday continues,
44:00Mike Blewitt up next. So many marquee games in that 425 p.m. Eastern time window. We talked
44:06about the game of the year five potential in Detroit, Lions and the Bills. We're talking about
44:11the Keystone clash in Philly between the Eagles and the Steelers live right here on a Football
44:17Friday on the early line on SportsGrid. But we talked about the number, right? The Steelers,
44:22a five-and-a-half-point road dog, feels like a ripe time for a Pittsburgh team, 11-6, against
44:28the spread as a road underdog since 2022 to at least keep the game close. I want to talk to you
44:35about the 42-and-a-half, which is the over-under. Is it light? Is it fair to the top five scoring
44:42defenses in the NFL and how it pertains, Mike Blewitt, to our quarterback comparison on Sunday?
44:49Jalen Hurts and a Philly passing attack that has been inept the last few weeks and Russell Wilson,
44:56perhaps without George Pickens. How do the Steelers get it done offensively to keep this
45:01game within striking distance? So, I think what you're seeing from the Steelers and Pickens
45:07not being there is a huge blow. I think it's probably impacted the total to some extent and
45:13if you're asking me if this game is over-under, I would say under. I could see a 20-17 game here.
45:22Does Philly really force it to A.J. Brown to try to appease him in the way that we saw at the
45:27beginning of the game last night, at least with Deebo Samuel, who's expressed some unhappiness
45:32with the offense. A.J. Brown obviously expressing that in Philly. Despite the fact that they're
45:37winning games, he wants the ball. I understand it to some extent, but come on, you're 11-2.
45:42What are we doing? So, I think the Pickens thing is obviously going to keep the scoring down,
45:53in my opinion. Now, what you'll see from the Steelers is, I thought you saw a lot of it last
45:58week. They're happy to use Najee Harris in the passing game as well as running the ball as
46:05effectively as they can. Something I've been looking for them, as a fan, I'm looking for them
46:10to do for some time is try to get Pat Friermuth involved more in the offense and I think you saw
46:16some key targets for him during the last couple of weeks, but that does not scream explosive,
46:23right? This is fighting fire with fire and the Steelers trying to control the ball and keep it
46:30out of Philly's hands so they don't run off eight-minute touchdown drives, which is their
46:35specialty. So, I think you see a lot of that. That's what keeps the scoring down for me is
46:40longer possessions, the team's running the ball, and if the Steelers aren't effective against that
46:45Philly front, I'm curious to see what their counter move is. Is it more Friermuth? Is it
46:50Najee in the passing game? Is it Jalen Warren? Because I don't know that Calvin Austin or Van
46:56Jefferson are scary threats in the passing game. It's interesting. If you had to bet in the prop
47:04market here between Russ or Jalen, who's got more passing yards, you think, when it all comes down
47:11to it? And quite honestly, can we trust Russell Wilson if he's got to drop back and throw it 30
47:17times in this game? Yeah, I think your anytime interception is an interesting number for Russ.
47:25As you said, Joe, if they are trailing and the Steelers are forced to throw, especially if
47:30they're down, say, multiple scores and the Steelers are forced to throw, you get a little worried
47:35about, and it's not just Russell Wilson, it is the available options that they have in the
47:42passing offense. The two guys I just mentioned, Calvin Austin has some nice explosive plays from
47:48time to time, but there's no consistency in it. Van Jefferson shows up on the stat sheet once in
47:52a while, a random touchdown last week, but I think I'd bet Russell to beat Jalen Hurts in passing
48:02yards. I just think they're going to have to lean on it a little bit more in a game like this.
48:06I expect Philly to potentially win this game, but five and a half is too many for me. Like I said,
48:11I'd see like a 20 to 17 score. So I would bet on Russell to have more passing yards. I know,
48:16obviously, his number is slightly higher, but it's even pinched a little bit closer than this
48:22morning than the stat board that we just showed. So it's really kind of a coin flip on who has
48:27more pass yards, but I would bet on Russell. All right, let's keep it going around this NFL
48:32Sunday slate. In week 15, the commander is a seven and a half point favorite in New Orleans,
48:38Washington, fresh off the by eight and five football team. The saints are going to be
48:43starting Jake Hayter with the injured Derek Carr now on the shelf. 43 and a half blue is that total
48:51in the big easy on Sunday. Will the commanders roll? Can the saints keep it close? They have one
48:57three or four with the interim head man in Darren Rizzy. Come on, guys. I mean,
49:04it's not happening for the saints this week. I get that seven and a half is a lot. And Joe,
49:11you and I are going to be talking about this. If the saints score first, big live betting
49:18opportunity for the commanders. They're coming off a buy. They desperately need this win.
49:24I'm trying not to be influenced myself because I had the saints under their win total for the year.
49:30But I just don't think they get this. That Giants game was gross. One of the worst games we've
49:35watched this year. Luckily, the Titans and Jaguars are on at the same time. So they overshadowed
49:41how bad the Giants Saints game was. But I think this is an opportunity for an alternate spread
49:47here for the commanders. You can get minus nine and a half. It goes up to and you can get plus
49:53money. So I'd be looking at something like that. I think that commanders get a ten point winner more.
49:59Do we trust Arizona to get it done against New England? Because I certainly don't.
50:07I don't. That game against that game last week was just.
50:12I think it changes your whole opinion of them. We had been backing them, Joe, really on the show
50:19on Sundays, talking about them consistently and how they're playing hard. The defense is getting
50:24better. And then it just all falls apart. I just don't know if a team like New England has enough
50:32fight left in it for the rest of the year. Release K.J. Osborne. There's just a lot of things
50:38surrounding the team that make me worry that they are now playing out this string.
50:43The good news is they have an energetic young quarterback and maybe he can make some plays.
50:47Six and a half is too many, though. I think that's what you're driving at. It's too many.
50:50I think you take advantage of New England here to keep it close. And again,
50:54life-threatening opportunities there. If New England scores first, you can get Arizona at a
50:57shorter number than laying a full touchdown. As we would have expected, the Pats have been
51:02an underdog in every game this year. They started one and six against the number.
51:06Now they are four and two against the spread so far this season. We've got three more games
51:12of our 13 from Sunday to break down for you. We will do so next to round out the Sunday slate
51:19here on The Early Line. You're going to see the caption for this game. Is it correct in terms of
51:25its headline? That's what we have to ask to Mike Fluitt. We've got three more games on this NFL
51:30Sunday slate to wrap up. We will do so here to end out this second hour. Not done yet is how we
51:38are billing the Bengals and the Titans in Nashville. Tennessee is done. They have been eliminated from
51:44AFC playoff contention. The Bengals mathematically have not, but at five and eight blue, we would
51:50expect they would have to win their final four in a row, make it five straight after the victory on
51:55Monday in Dallas to end out this year. So will the Bengals do that and might they cover against
52:02the Tennessee Titans on Sunday? I like the Bengals here, 46 and a half. The Bengals are going to have
52:10to do a lot of heavy lifting to get there because I don't think Tennessee can help them anymore.
52:15The game the other day, the interesting thing about that game is how short it was. Remember,
52:19Joe, we were tracking the first half was over in an hour and the game was done in two hours and 40
52:24minutes against the Jags. Tennessee plays a lot of short games. They're punting the ball quite a
52:29bit. They don't have a dynamic passing offense. They have a ton of penalties. The only reason
52:34their games go long at all is they commit a ton of penalties. And I think the Bengals are the team
52:40that everybody's been talking about. Frankly, they have a dangerous offense. Their defense can't get
52:45it done, but against a team like this, I think they do get it done. Obviously, we don't love to
52:50lay points on the road, but I think this number is too light. And I think you just lay the points
52:55here and look for Cincinnati's team total over, which is sitting right now at 26 and a half. So,
53:02I think they can get to 27. A 27 to 10, 27 to 17 victory keeps you under, they cover, and you get
53:10the Bengals total. What are we expecting from the Cowboys, Blewett? I mean, they invent ways to lose
53:18games, which is great, but they certainly have been playing better football, but so has Carolina.
53:25So, who do we trust in this game? So, it's fascinating, right, in you saying that they
53:32invent ways to lose games. It's true. The only other time I've seen something like that happen,
53:37that happened on Monday, was the Cowboys on that Thanksgiving Day game when Leon Lett slid
53:42in the snow. And it's literally the only other time I've seen something like that happen.
53:46Just don't touch the ball, and we're going to win this, and they did it about 30 years apart. So,
53:53in terms of their chances to win this week, it's a great landing spot for them, I suppose.
54:02Cooper Rush has been good at times, but Bryce Young's transformation this year is probably one
54:08of the cool second-tier stories in the NFL this year, right? People were ready to cast him aside,
54:16and Carolina's going to have to draft somebody again, but he's played pretty well. Since he came
54:21back, he's been good. I think Carolina is a far more energized team now than the Cowboys. You see,
54:28Micah Parsons is upset. They lose to Marion Overshawn for the season. In fact, he might be
54:32out for all of next season as well based on the severity of their injury, which is awful for him
54:37because he's shown to be a really impactful player. I can't believe the Panthers are laying
54:43points to the Cowboys, but this is where we are in the season, and I just don't know if the
54:47Cowboys have anything left. And if they continue to play like this and make mistakes like that
54:54and drop a game here, I think it does start to change. I think it does start to cement
54:59Mike McCarthy's fate if they don't win this game. Listen, we buried the lead in this game,
55:05gents. This is the first time since the end of 2022, 33 consecutive games that Carolina will
55:12be booked as a favorite, snapping that 33-game skid, if you will, or streak,
55:20booked as an underdog. They have covered in their last five games at Dallas, not mathematically
55:27eliminated. In fact, the only game on Sunday that features a matchup of two teams that are already
55:32out of playoff contention is in Jacksonville. The Jags host the Jets, three-and-a-half points
55:39spread in favor of gangrene, total 40-and-a-half fluid. I am making you give us a pick for this
55:46bottom feeder battle. Which way do you go? I think you're crazy to bet on either team
55:52at this point. Seriously, the Jets. That's not what I asked, Mike. Joe said the Cowboys invent
55:58ways to lose. The Jets are right there. The Jets are right there with inventing ways to lose and
56:04throwing 98-92 yard pick sixes to defensive linemen to swing games. If you made the team, I would lay
56:12the points with the Jets. I think the Jags have nothing left. They can't really run an offense
56:17at all, but my favorite bet in this game would be the Jags' team total under 18-and-a-half. If Aaron
56:23Rodgers keeps it clean, I think the Jags will not get to 19 points. I don't know how they would
56:30with Mac Jones still starting a football game. They won last week in Nashville with 10 big ones.
56:36Mike Lewis, we'll see you Sunday. Thanks for being here. Hour number three is up next.

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