Donald Trump resmi dilantik sebagai Presiden Amerika Serikat hari ini, Senin waktu setempat, 20 Januari 2025. Acara ini menandai masa jabatan kedua Trump sebagai Presiden yang akan segera dimulai.
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Selasa (21/01/2025) dengan Tema Market Merespons Pelantikan Presiden AS, Donald Trump".
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Selasa (21/01/2025) dengan Tema Market Merespons Pelantikan Presiden AS, Donald Trump".
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TVTranscript
00:00We'll see how Donald Trump's response to the market is going to be and what his anticipation is.
00:11Maybe the policies will be announced on the first day.
00:15We will discuss the leadership with Patrick Jorgi, Research Analyst at FAC Indonesia.
00:21Good morning, Mr. Patrick.
00:24Good morning, Mrs. Prisha.
00:26Thank you for your time, Mr. Patrick.
00:28The response from the market is not so good.
00:33The U.S. is in the middle of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.
00:40But Europe tends to be flat in the last closing.
00:43From Asia, we can see that the majority is still wet and sea.
00:47What are your thoughts on the stock market?
00:52You're right, Mrs. Prisha.
00:54Right now, the market is in the middle of wet and sea.
00:58It's the result of Donald Trump's administration.
01:01Donald Trump, with all kinds of...
01:08Hello?
01:09Yes, please continue.
01:11With all kinds of policies,
01:14where Trump's policies are not so significant to implement the policies.
01:25We see that the tendency will be partial,
01:28or the level will not be as high as expected by the market players.
01:33If the level is not as high as expected by the market players,
01:37we see that it can be a positive thing.
01:40However, in the long run,
01:42Trump's policies will multiply a lot,
01:46and tend to have the potential to create a foreign flow again in the US.
01:51But if we look at the last few months,
01:54the market itself has been quite forward-looking.
01:58If we look at the last two months,
02:00the market has tended to be foreign,
02:03has tended to do net sales,
02:05and if we look at it now,
02:07the market is more towards wet and sea.
02:09Trump's policies, will they be in line with what is expected or not?
02:13Okay.
02:14It's not explicitly stated by Trump himself,
02:18that he's not in a hurry to impose tariffs.
02:22But how do you see it?
02:25The projection that worries me the most,
02:27is actually about the implementation of trade tariffs on a number of countries.
02:31But if it's said that it's not in a hurry right now,
02:34and it can suddenly change,
02:37what should be done?
02:39Do we go for wet and sea first,
02:41until there is real certainty?
02:44That's right.
02:45If we look at the import tariffs,
02:51we see that the tendency is,
02:53if Trump is too hasty,
02:57to raise it so high,
02:59then it will also be responded by his trade partners.
03:01That can affect the growth of the US economy as well.
03:06In addition, Trump's policies tend to push high inflation,
03:11which can also impact the US economy.
03:13If we look at it,
03:15Trump will still tend to re-invest in his policies,
03:20with the aim of using those policies as a bargain of power,
03:24to lobby countries on Trump's own international trade.
03:30So for now, I see,
03:32if it's not as massive as that,
03:35then for the capital market itself,
03:37we can tend to wet and sea,
03:39and we can focus on the domestic catalyst first.
03:42Moreover, our domestic market is quite pushed
03:46by the fact that there is a catalyst for the flower family,
03:48which makes our index soar rapidly.
03:53Okay, what strategy should be applied by market players
03:56to look at the Asian stock market,
03:58which tends to wet and sea,
04:00even though the S&P index is still quite stable,
04:03experiencing strength,
04:05and those who support it are still the blue chips mentioned earlier,
04:07there are BBR, IBMR, IBBNI,
04:10do you think the EHSG response
04:13will also tend to follow the Asian stock market,
04:15wet and sea, and weaken,
04:17or is there still a chance to continue strengthening?
04:20If we talk about EHSG,
04:22the context is quite tricky,
04:24because our EHSG,
04:26if we compare it with other Asian countries,
04:29and we compare it with the ASEAN area,
04:31from the valuation point of view,
04:33we can say that it is already very cheap,
04:35because the weakening happened in the last few months,
04:38so if we talk about opportunities,
04:40of course there is still that opportunity,
04:42but whether we will respond positively or not,
04:46we need to remember that we have started strengthening
04:48for 4 lucky days,
04:50so the existence of profit taking
04:52is one of the concerns that will happen today,
04:54because we have started strengthening for 4 lucky days,
04:56and even if we start strengthening,
04:58as far as I can see, the strengthening is limited,
05:00but other than that,
05:02for the short term, we see the potential for EHSG
05:04is still quite positive,
05:06but for the mid to long term,
05:08we need to look further,
05:10whether the impact of this policy
05:12is more massive than expected,
05:14because if the expectation turns out to be,
05:18for example,
05:20that China's interest rate can reach 60%,
05:23that is a very massive thing,
05:26if it does not reach that level,
05:28we see that it will be a positive thing for the market,
05:30especially because these two countries
05:32are both our biggest trading partners.
05:36Okay, for the short term,
05:38the trend will still experience strength,
05:40but for the mid term and long term,
05:42there are still a lot of sentiments,
05:46which is not certain,
05:48whether the Fed will cut ties,
05:50how the policy of Donald Trump, etc.
05:52Okay, then,
05:54we see that the dollar tends to weaken,
05:58and the momentum is taken by gold,
06:00which is experiencing strength,
06:02while oil is also still weak,
06:04waiting for the next strategy policy
06:08on energy from Donald Trump,
06:10which is still wait and see.
06:12Are there any opportunities
06:14that can be used from the weakening of the dollar,
06:16or maybe the strength of gold
06:18is related to the shares
06:20that are closely related to the commodity,
06:24or the exchange rate?
06:26Okay, of course,
06:28maybe gold can be one of the choices,
06:30as stated,
06:32that gold directly responds to the weakness
06:34in the XY,
06:36or the dollar index,
06:38where the weakness is also quite deep,
06:40if we look at it,
06:42gold is indeed one of the commodities
06:44that we can take advantage of
06:46in the midst of the current uncertainty,
06:48starting from geopolitical conflicts,
06:50and also about measuring
06:52the policy that will be taken by Trump
06:54in the future, or his policies.
06:56So, if we look at it as a commodity,
06:58maybe gold can be considered,
07:00but outside of gold,
07:02I see in the long run,
07:04the dollar will still be strong
07:06against the rupee,
07:08but the size itself,
07:10we will still wait and see first,
07:12and also the commodities that have
07:14the denomination of the dollar,
07:16or the income in the form of the dollar,
07:18can be one of the commodities
07:20that we can take advantage of,
07:22including other commodities,
07:24such as the nickel community,
07:26and the like.
07:28Okay, later we will see
07:30in the recommendation,
07:32your choice,
07:34but before that,
07:36we go to the information
07:38about the commodities,
07:40such as the company that jumped
07:42and touched the top autoreject
07:44in the trade yesterday.
07:46Is there anything that concerns you
07:48about this corporate action?
07:50If we talk about this corporate action,
07:52we can see that
07:54this corporate action
07:56has a very positive impact
07:58on the movement of data,
08:00where the data has been strong
08:02in the last few days.
08:04If we talk about the corporate action
08:06that was taken by Tewer,
08:08for Tewer's operational business,
08:10which is to strengthen
08:12the telecommunications business.
08:14So in the short term,
08:16maybe what will be more affected
08:18is the data,
08:20because Tewer's current movement
08:22is still in the sideways phase.
08:24But if we talk about the business prospect,
08:26of course this will be a very good opportunity.
08:28Moreover,
08:30Jarum's own business
08:32is quite detailed
08:34in the acquisition of a company.
08:36So if we talk about
08:38the operational prospect,
08:40I see it's quite positive
08:42for the long term.
08:44Which one is positive for the long term?
08:46Tewer or the data?
08:48Because the one that's lagging is the DATA.
08:50Yes, if we look at it,
08:52if we want to try
08:54to be a trader or take
08:56profits in the short term,
08:58we can consider
09:00looking at the data movement.
09:02Because indeed,
09:04Tewer is much bigger
09:06and much more attractive for now.
09:08But if we talk about the long term,
09:10this is the long term.
09:12For investment, I see Tewer itself
09:14has,
09:16we can make a choice
09:18in other M&A,
09:20because from the valuation point of view,
09:22it's already too cheap for Tewer's M&A.
09:24Okay.
09:26The price is already too cheap
09:28for Tewer.
09:30But for the short term, it's interesting to
09:32look at the data.
09:34So for the short term,
09:36is there still a chance for the data to continue to increase?
09:38If we look at it,
09:40technically speaking,
09:42the growth is already very massive.
09:44So we hope there will be a
09:46Brexit first.
09:48Because the data increase is already very massive.
09:50Okay, what are the levels
09:52that can be observed?
09:54Yes, right now,
09:56the data is at
09:58level 1530.
10:00If we look at it,
10:02there is a level around,
10:04for the short term,
10:06there is a potential weakness to the level
10:081400 actually.
10:10If the support is penetrated,
10:12it can create more support
10:14in the area of 1200 actually for the data.
10:16Because the increase is very massive.
10:18Okay.
10:20Although we can make that a potential
10:22for friends who are looking
10:24for trading for the short term.
10:26Okay, that's the recommendation.
10:28Thank you so much for sharing about the data of PEMIRSA.
10:30Which is 40%
10:32acquired by EMITEN GROUP JARUM TOWR.
10:34And PEMIRSA's recommendation
10:36and analysis choices.
10:38We will present the other information in the next segment.
10:40Mas Patrick and PEMIRSA,
10:42let's have a break first.