"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Jumat (10/01/2025) dengan Tema Analisis Saham PANI, BLES, TOTL".
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00:00Thank you for joining us, Mr. Mirsa, and now I'd like to continue our discussion with Mr. Karel.
00:10There are a few things I'd like to share with you regarding the stock options.
00:14This is the first time I've had the chance to witness it on television, Mr. Mirsa.
00:19After that, we'll discuss the questions I've asked Mr. Karel.
00:24We'll discuss the analysis of the stock options, with good recommendations.
00:28There are 12 good recommendations from TLTL.
00:34Let's continue our discussion with Mr. Karel.
00:37Mr. Karel, if we continue our discussion on the balance sentiment,
00:42this is also something that the market players should pay attention to.
00:48Don't get carried away by FOMO.
00:50There are other issues that should be considered.
01:00What is this sector actually sensitive to, Mr. Karel?
01:05Okay, if we're talking about properties, of course,
01:09the most important thing is the interest rate in Indonesia.
01:14Of course, if the interest rate is high or not decreasing,
01:20it will weaken the purchasing power of the community.
01:23Of course, it will have a direct impact on the property sector.
01:27But in fact, CBDK itself,
01:30about 80% is upper income and uses installment payments.
01:38Then 5% to 10% is hard cash.
01:42Indeed, CBDK is not so affected by the interest rate.
01:48But of course, the 10% portion of installment payments,
01:52it can also be negative if the interest rate does not go up or down,
01:59or there is an increase like that.
02:01So, this is also something that is considered by investors.
02:04It's related to the level of the flower tribe, its own influence.
02:07Other things that should be considered by the market players
02:09with CBDK and various projections for this year's investors, what is it like?
02:15Okay, so for CBDK, we expect next year,
02:21the pre-sales can increase.
02:23In 2024, the target pre-sales is around 2.4 trillion.
02:30Next year, in 2025, we expect the pre-sales to increase by around 15% to 20%.
02:37Because in the second peak, there is a toll that will immediately occur.
02:41Then, if we see that the facilities in the second peak or CBDK,
02:47the longer it is, the more complete it is.
02:49Of course, this increases the interest of buyers in the area.
02:54Like that.
02:55Okay, we go to the samples that you recommended this morning.
03:00Among them is Ada Pani.
03:02Maybe you can give us the complete analysis, Mr. Karel.
03:06Okay, for Pani, we cover Pani.
03:10We have a target price of IDR 25,075.
03:15We like Pani because of course it is a beneficiary of CBDK's IPO.
03:20Then, Pani itself, if we look at it,
03:24its earnings each year has almost doubled.
03:28Then, in terms of pre-sales, it can be said that it is very fast.
03:33Because it has a lot of new funds from last year's REC issue.
03:38Then, in terms of balance sheet, Pani has no debt at all.
03:43It can be said as a clean balance sheet.
03:45That's why we like Pani.
03:47Then, yes, we like Pani because of that.
03:51Okay, in terms of price valuation, how interesting is the last price for Pani, Mr. Karel?
03:56Okay, if Pani is currently around 20% premium to R&D.
04:04But it is expensive now.
04:07But we see that Pani still has a lot of empty land.
04:13Or the land bank is still a lot.
04:14Of course, this is also in line with the fast-growing pre-sales.
04:20So if we can see,
04:22if we want to pull this Pani for 3 years,
04:25its earnings grow very fast.
04:28That's why we like Pani.
04:30Okay, in terms of projection and also maybe a recommendation for Pani itself,
04:34from you, this is interesting to continue like this.
04:38Considering the growth projection here will also be interesting for the next 3 years.
04:42Okay, from Pani we shift to Blast, what is it like, Mr. Karel?
04:47Okay, if we like Blast because it is a market industry leader in light stones.
04:53Or Hebel, as we know.
04:55If we like Blast because it is also a substitute item.
04:59Hebel is a substitute item from redstone.
05:02We see that the supply of redstone in the future is getting longer,
05:06the more the land or raw materials run out.
05:09That's why we like Blast because it is a market leader.
05:14Then we can see that after the IPO,
05:18the user of the IPO funds to create a new factory,
05:21which will be this year.
05:23And we see that the earnings growth this year is up to 20-30%.
05:28Because there is a new factory and it is also a market leader,
05:32we like Blast.
05:34Okay, in terms of projection or maybe a recommendation for Blast itself,
05:37is it the same as Pani?
05:39Or do you see other possibilities?
05:41Other than that, the movement is also quite interesting.
05:43It can also be used for trading, for Blast itself.
05:46I think it's too long for Blast.
05:49Okay, the last price is interesting, quite cheap, or what?
05:55Yes, the last price is around 12x PI.
05:59But if we see that in terms of growth,
06:02which is 30% forward,
06:03it means we can assume that Blast is now below 10x PI.
06:09And if we look at the future,
06:12if we expect growth to be 20%,
06:14of course, it will only be around 7-8x PI.
06:18And in my opinion, among the friends who are in the field of building materials,
06:22there are those who are 15x PI up, of course.
06:26I think Blast is very interesting.
06:29Okay, from Blast we move to TOTL, what is it like?
06:34Okay, from TOTL,
06:36TOTL just announced that it got a new contract of around 5.1 trillion.
06:45Well, I say this is the highest number of contracts so far by TOTL.
06:53And that exceeds their target of only 4.5 trillion.
06:57Then TOTL itself, in terms of earnings this year,
07:02we expect it to increase by around 80% year-on-year growth.
07:07And then, TOTL also has a clean balance sheet,
07:10it has no debt at all.
07:12And in terms of valuation,
07:14TOTL is only traded at 8x PI.
07:18While other friends are above 15x PI too.
07:23For TOTL, we cover and we have a target price at 1,200.
07:31The latest price is interesting to be able to enter directly, right?
07:33Yes.
07:34Okay.
07:35Remember, you said earlier that there is no debt in installments,
07:39so that you can focus on business expansion and also increase in revenue.
07:44Okay, those were the friends who were recommended this morning by Pak Karel.
07:48Among them are Pani, Blast, and also TOTL.
07:51Meanwhile, we will see the movement of IHSG this morning.
07:57What do you see so far, Pak Karel?
08:01Okay, if we look at it,
08:03indeed, if we look at it globally, there are still many negative sentiments.
08:07Especially if we see that,
08:10if we look at the current economy,
08:13the fact that we will reduce the cut of the fruit tribe and others,
08:19of course, this makes not only Indonesia, but also globally.
08:23Globally, it is still consolidated, I think.
08:27But for me, the strategy is, of course, we will look at the sectors.
08:32One, it is a down-trading sector, if we can see.
08:38For example, PBID or something else is good.
08:43Because the longer it is, the more people open canteens or something else.
08:49After that, for others, I'm more into M&A this year.
08:55For example, there are many backdoor listings, acquisitions, and others.
09:00So this year, I'm more focused on which sector is down-trading,
09:04and which sector is the corporate action, and then there is M&A.
09:09Okay, if we look at the sentiment from the United States itself
09:16about the decision not to reduce the cut of the fruit tribe too much,
09:21this also seems to be quite heavy for the movement of the IHSG.
09:26How do you see this as a concern that may still be a concern,
09:32at least until the end of the trade later?
09:36Yes, so if the Fed doesn't reduce the fruit tribe that much,
09:42people are more likely to hold the dollar.
09:46And that's why the dollar is stronger than yesterday.
09:49Of course, this weighs the rupiah.
09:51Well, if the rupiah is weak, of course, what is affected are stocks that have high foreign ownership,
09:57such as banking.
10:00Of course, if we see that foreign ownership,
10:03banking is the main asset now in the stock market.
10:07If it goes down, of course it will weigh the stock market.
10:11That's why, if we look at it, we wait first.
10:15In the US, we continue to monitor the data.
10:17If, for example, we see that if the reduction of the fruit tribe happens, when?
10:23And that can be a positive catalyst.
10:26If the Fed has signs to reduce the fruit tribe in February or next month.
10:35Okay, that was some analysis related to ESG and also SAMPILIHAN and CBDK.
10:40We will see the Samsam researchers who are the top gainers,
10:43including PTRO, BRMS, Raja Brand, BUMI, PSAB, TPI, SSEA, then MDKA, and also ACE Hardware.
10:50And then there is AGRS, PLAN, LUCK, then KEJU, MTDL, VTNY, and BDKR, Avia, INDEX, and also AMMS.
11:02Okay, Mr. Karel, thank you for joining us.
11:04I hope what you said on this occasion can be a reference for market players in implementing their investment strategies.
11:11But again, the decision of the investment is back to you, the minister of IDXNL.
11:15Mr. Karel, good luck, I always see you.