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00:00Oh, so the regular season is now over it is time for playoff football in the nfl what each conference has
00:08from its postseason picture perspective the outlook from the odds in the chase for a conference championship and of course
00:15a lombardi trophy
00:17As well all of that here in this third hour looking at super wild card weekend in the matchups
00:23Match-ups that will kick off the opening round of the nfl postseason
00:28We'll also take a look at the draft order the top five the top 10 the top 18
00:34That has already been decided without the playoff teams at the end
00:38Of the regular season so much to get to here drs up until 11 a.m. Live right here on the early line
00:45Some teams are playing for championships
00:47Some teams are already in the offseason trying to find their head coach and who they're going to actually draft and get on with the life
00:52Of their franchise and some players, you know looking for new teams, obviously, but the fan bases
00:57That's the one that you worry about like you look at a couple of these bad football teams
01:00So they suffered through 18 weeks of football
01:03Just give them something to be happy about here with a good draft with a good free agency and for myself
01:08Everybody but the new york giants have a great offseason and a great free agency and a great draft
01:12I think we can all wish that well
01:14Yes, we certainly can drs. There is so much to get to for 18 teams in the nfl. It's draft season
01:21It's the early stages of the offseason for 14
01:24A postseason is on the horizon and for a few
01:28Who is the best bet to win a super bowl championship super bowl 59 in just about a month?
01:35In new orleans a lovely place to visit. Hope I get to do so
01:38One day at sports grid on twitter as we enter the nfl playoffs which team is the best bet to win super bowl
01:4759 that was the question for all of you in fade the public
01:59Listen there are 14 teams to choose from right?
02:02But there's only four options that you can post in a fade the public poll at sports grid on twitter
02:08So we go with the top three
02:10But a small caveat with some movement on this monday morning the ravens and the bills tied for the third best price
02:18To win a super bowl championship, but the lions the favorites at three to one the two-time reigning super bowl champion
02:25kansas city chiefs that second best price at plus
02:29350 so at sports grid on twitter, which team is the best bet to win a lombardi trophy?
02:35Donnie it's a pretty even split right here, but it is the lions the chiefs the bills
02:4127.7 for the lions
02:4328.34 kc
02:4527.2 for buffalo in the other we asked for a reply getting nearly 17
02:51Our guy hollywood hernandez saying the ravens are on full throttle another account saying the packers
02:58Are the best bet goodfellas laugh is his name one of donnie's good friends the rs
03:03Which way did you vote for the super bowl 59 best bet decision?
03:08well for me
03:08I saw the other so I didn't vote for it because I didn't want to hit other than have to reply eagles
03:12It's a little bit too much time for my morning
03:13So I just stuck with the lines and the bills and made my decision from there
03:17but plus 350 I did go with the chiefs who have the slight lead at 28 over
03:2227 for the lions and 27 for the buffalo bills
03:25You now have the bye week where the chiefs can rest and get ready
03:28The chiefs will be home for the holidays as I like to say with patrick holmes and andy reid
03:34They will be in the super bowl
03:35Then andy reid gets two weeks to get ready and as long as patrick holmes shows up in the football game
03:40They're going to beat whoever they play at that point
03:42So for me i'm going to vote chiefs at a plus 350 price as a fan
03:46I hope they don't get there because we always like something new to talk about for those two weeks other than the chiefs and the
03:51Patriots for the past 20 straight years it feels like but it just feels like we are heading down that path
03:56Where the chiefs are lined up once again and probably playing their best football and getting players back at the right time
04:02That's tough to see but I got chiefs plus 350 is where my vote went
04:07This is year number seven
04:09In kansas city with patrick holmes as the starting quarterback in the previous six
04:14They have reached the super bowl four times. They have won three super bowls
04:18They have played in the afc championship game all six seasons
04:23They have hosted the afc title game
04:27Five of those six times last year was the first time kc had to go on the road
04:32They did as an underdog twice winning outright in western
04:35New york against the bills and the ravens in the afc championship game
04:40How could you doubt or even fault the public for trying to attempt to even fade kansas city?
04:47It is the correct way of looking at it
04:49I selected the lions just because I have a bet on detroit to win super bowl 59
04:55The lions hoping to play in a super bowl for the first time in franchise history
05:00My number is six to one it is now half that at plus 300
05:04but it should say drs as we look at the structure and the path for how these teams will get to
05:12A super bowl we start in the nfc game 272 was critically important because the winner
05:20Last night in detroit lions and the vikings would be the one seed and the divisional champ
05:25The loser would be on the road as the five seed detroit got that one seed a critical open weekend and time to rest
05:32for a team that is
05:34Incredibly banged up the lions the one seed the eagles the two the bucks the three
05:40The rams the four the vikings the top at large team a wild card spot
05:45As the five seed the commanders the six the packers the seven here are the nfc
05:51Championship odds and where things stand in this conference the lions a short favorite donnie at a plus
05:58135 number the eagles the second best price at plus 320
06:02The vikings and the packers both see their prices get longer after a disappointing final weekend of the regular season
06:10And it's right and you look at those numbers there. The lions should be the favorite here. They get to buy their home field
06:15They're a dome team
06:15They're not figured outdoors because I think we could both agree
06:17The two best teams in the nfc are the eagles and the lions and the lions will have home field advantage
06:22That is a big big deal
06:24Also, the eagles will get a tough matchup against the packers right off the bat those threes which is a look ahead lines
06:29Now getting up to five and a half at some outlets here
06:31But if we just go chalk like all the way through like dan campbell might be right like in two weeks
06:35You might be seeing the vikings go up against the lions because let's just say if the buccaneers win the rams win
06:40That's how it filters down the teams that you're going to play here
06:43So I do think that road to the super bowl is extremely tough because you're going to get good punches
06:48Even though you have the buys of the detroit lions
06:50If your games are going to be the minnesota vikings and the philadelphia eagles on your way to the super bowl
06:55Boy, you earn the right to play in the super bowl the same thing with the eagles beating the packers
06:59Then the second round opponent and then eventually maybe finding your way to playing on the road against the detroit lions
07:04But I don't have any discrepancies
07:05Which the way those odds are if it does get down to the chalk wins out in the nfc
07:09And it's the eagles and the lions that will be an epic football game in detroit
07:13If we make it that far to watch it, but I do agree that that plus 135 price
07:17It should be the lions their home field. They're a good football team. They deserve it
07:22Personally, I would be surprised if it's not the lions and the eagles in detroit
07:27But that doesn't mean it's going to be easy in all three of our opening round nfc playoff games on super wildcard weekend
07:34the spread four and a half or
07:37Fewer very different story in the afc the chiefs the one seed
07:41Once again home field advantage a conference championship
07:45Runs through arrowhead the bills the two seed the ravens the three seed the texans the four seed
07:51Houston a home dog though to start the postseason against the chargers the steelers
07:56Nine and a half point road dog in baltimore the broncos eight and a half point road underdog in western
08:04New york, so donny afc title odds still as it really has been all season long a tier of three the chiefs the bills
08:12then the ravens
08:14Now look those two or three either one of those teams can beat each other if you're talking neutral site super bowl action
08:18Which I understand they're in the afc
08:19They can't meet there, but hear me out you beck
08:21You know what coin flips all the way around but you take the coin flips out of the equation where again?
08:25It used to be two teams get buys now we get one major advantage
08:28One team doesn't have to leave their home building as long as they win
08:31That's the kansas city chiefs the chief's getting healthy at the right time with andy readers your head coach and maybe the most
08:36You know unheralded defensive coordinator steve spagnuolo comes up with gen game plans
08:41Game after game after game in the playoffs. He has extra weeks to prepare
08:46I would be surprised the chiefs once again aren't playing for another super bowl, which will be a third win in the row
08:51Nobody's ever done it
08:53Hard to bet against it right now is what I would say
08:57So much to get to here on this monday morning edition of the early line after the end
09:03Of the regular season finale in the national football league
09:06We have looked at the playoff pictures
09:08But as we have shared an interesting wrinkle to the final day of the regular season
09:13Is not just the race for playoff spots or number one seeds
09:17But the number one overall draft pick in the 2025 nfl draft in just a few months this upcoming
09:25April the patriots in pole position to hold on to that first overall pick a franchise that
09:31Desperately needs to build up talent across the roster
09:35Even with a franchise quarterback to build around in drake may just needed to lose at home against buffalo
09:42They win so the patriots will not draft first overall rather fourth
09:47And they'll have a new head coach that will influence the calls of what they do because of new england's win on sunday
09:54Tennessee
09:55First overall pick the titans at number one the browns number two
10:01The giants number three and the jags round out the top five all 18
10:07Picks one through 18 have been determined based on those teams that did not qualify for the postseason
10:14Within the nfl, but donnie, it's rather simple when you look at the top five
10:20Three teams need a quarterback in a draft right now
10:23That is perceived to only have two that will really go
10:27In the top five the titans and the browns in pole position to draft their quarterbacks of the future for their franchises
10:35Yeah good for them
10:36But also when you started the season
10:38I don't think too many of us on our bingo cards had the titans and the browns one in two, right?
10:42You're looking at the titans through we didn't think they would be a great football team
10:45But the way they spent their money at some key positions like you know what they're gonna hang around
10:49They want to see what will lovis has six seven eight nine ten wins. We'll see if they can get to the playoffs
10:54They were terrible this year the cleveland browns with the sean watson and all the talent
10:58They surrounded him with they were hoping he could finally put it together
11:00Even if he didn't then what did that mean eight nine, maybe ten wins?
11:04It just didn't work out in their favor
11:05They end up to the teams that we probably felt might be juggling around there would be the giants and the patriots
11:11Two of the teams that really needed to finish one and two you figured may have missed their opportunities
11:16Will they get quality football players?
11:18Yes, but just like in any sport unless you're getting the most important position out there, which is quarterback
11:24Nothing really matters at this point and I did see some giants fans creep up and say oh, it's no big deal
11:29You can always trade up to one and two and get your quarterback
11:32Really?
11:32So you want to cost yourself a first round pick and more just to move up when all you had to do is lose football
11:37Games you weren't supposed to win down the stretch and you could acclaim those spots yourself
11:42If you're asking for the most egregious win it had to be the patriots on sunday
11:46It really did like buffalo didn't throw out a carson wentz s kansas city effort was like we're not even trying to be here
11:53We don't have anybody playing in this game
11:55They actually put forward a decent effort here and you still beat them at home
11:58Imagine being a patriot saying going to that game where the only thing you're cheering for is a buffalo bills win
12:04So you could say this season was awful. We fired our head coach
12:07We got the number one pick we might have a semblance of some fun over the next couple years
12:11Watching this all play out because you didn't need the quarterback for the patriots
12:15But you could have turned that number one into a windfall to surround that quarterback with some actual talent
12:21So it is embarrassing the way some of these teams did play out their season even more embarrassing how they just couldn't continue
12:27Their embarrassment over week 17 and 18 to take losses
12:31The giants is a seven and a half point home dog against a colts team that needed to win to keep its playoff hopes alive
12:37in week 17
12:39They win outright. They lose control the first overall pick new york desperately needs a quarterback
12:46and if this was last year where we saw six qbs go in the opening round that a record in the modern draft era dating back
12:53to 1997
12:54all six qbs in the top 12 that also
12:58A
12:59Record, maybe it would be different and donnie entering the year
13:02There was a thought all right four to five guys probably going to be in line to be a top 10
13:07Top 15 at least first round pick
13:10I'm, not sure we have more than two at the start of this season
13:15Carson beck out of georgia was the favorite to be the first overall selection at three to one entering week 17
13:23Shannor sanders was greater than a two dollar favorite to be the first overall pick so mark this down
13:29Right here right now on monday. January 6th the first day after the end of the regular season
13:36Cam ward out of miami. Miami is an ever so slight odds on favorite to be that first overall pick at minus
13:45125 a lot of change drs from what we perceived
13:49Entering this nfl and college football season
13:53Yes, and understand smokescreen season has already begun all college football season long
13:57We're led to believe that cam warden shadur sanders looked really good
14:00Can't wait to get him in the pros and then we get the behind the scenes probably the giants putting this out
14:04We don't even have first round grades on these two quarterbacks hoping they fall to them here
14:08I love smokescreen seasons here two great quarterbacks right now. We're gonna poke holes in all the way through
14:15Draft season is always fun. Tom vecchio joins us next
14:19The end of the regular season around the national football league
14:22So the early handicaps for the playoff picture all around the nfl
14:27With tv tom vecchio of sports grid live right here on this monday
14:32No, monday night football game to preview in the nfl for that prop perspective
14:37But we'll get tom's thoughts on the playoff picture around the national football league and when
14:43And where we can start to dive in vecchio as always thank you for joining us to kick off a new week on tel
14:50Of course, thanks for having me. We are in a great spot for the playoffs
14:54There are some early lines already posted in terms of player props. I've already jumped in on some
14:59Uh, we've already seen some line movement. There's some potential weather expected next weekend in philly
15:05I know donny's obviously me paying attention to that some already in on the under on that game some overs on some players. Let's roll
15:11Yeah, let's roll let's get right into it vecchio and let's look at the path through a postseason march
15:18For all these teams in either conference we start in the afc
15:22The chiefs are the one seed they have the buy and home field advantage throughout the bills the two
15:28Ravens three texans at the four spot. You see the wild card teams on your right side
15:34We've got some very hefty spreads vecchio in two of our three opening round games within the afc
15:41Both the steelers and the broncos north of touchdown underdogs on
15:47The road the chargers actually a slight road favorite now laying a field goal in houston
15:53So we look at the playoff picture and what it means for the afc championship odds all year long really in the afc
16:00It's been a tier three you can move those places and maybe jockey those positions ever so slightly
16:07But it's been the chiefs the bills and the ravens. Is there a bet you would make in the afc?
16:13entering super wild card weekend
16:16It's really tough because of where the odds are and I honestly think they're spot on and the the point for value might have
16:23Might have passed already where you said like the tiers are there and that's just what we see here
16:27like the bills are so much better than the broncos overall and the the ravens are better than the steelers and
16:34maybe you know the chargers can give one of those teams a run for their money because I do expect the chargers to win this
16:39weekend, but
16:40The steelers the broncos they're just not going to be making any noise and it's going to come down to one of those final three
16:45teams so
16:46It's at a point like if you jumped in earlier in the season, maybe when the ravens, you know
16:50Fell a few games behind and the steelers were on that hot streak and you got the ravens at a better conference price
16:55Congrats on that
16:56But I think honestly the point for value has passed and you just have to take it game by game
17:01I I think we will not see one of those bottom tier teams win any game. That's what it really comes down to
17:07Take a look at the nfc there tom
17:09Not as top heavy as the afc much more balance all the way through where some upsets could occur
17:14Which why don't we start talking about the nfc and starting with that key game last night?
17:17The lions really impressed me with defense. They were outright the better team from start to finish, you know
17:23Great defense offense got in when they could jameer gibbs was great
17:26They're the number one overall seed but talk to me about the feelings behind the vikings who came to that game last night
17:32Two and a half point dogs. They win. They're the one seed they get the rest now. They lose that game
17:37They gotta lick their wounds and head out west to a team and play the rams who sat their key starters here
17:42What's the vibes around the vikings that we're looking at right now entering into the playoffs?
17:46They they can't be good especially considering how they lost and how inefficient they were on offense and
17:52you know kind of some of those things it's like
17:54A lot of people and maybe it's just my opinion what i'm reading it
17:57Like a lot of people are just like waiting for the other shoe to drop with sam donald
18:00Like oh, he's been great
18:01But like we know there are times that he can seriously struggle and we saw that last week not to mention the fact
18:06That he got a little bit banged up
18:07He was limping around they have to go on the road granted
18:09They have that day because they're playing on monday night
18:11But it doesn't look great for the vikings and i'm already on the rams at plus two and a half
18:16I like them for that spot home field advantage. They had essentially a bye week with their starters
18:21Listen, the vikings had a great season, but they missed their time to strike and it was getting that first round by
18:27And I think it's all about the rams this upcoming week
18:30The rams on a short thursday night week a game on a short week did beat the vikings at home
18:37As a slight underdog as well that really turned the ram season around to be where they are champions of the nfc
18:45West vecchio as donnie alluded to a little bit more up in the air when you look at the nfc playoff picture
18:50The lions the one seed and the favorites to win the conference crown a short number at this moment
18:57The eagles have the second best price then we go to the two teams out of the nfc north
19:01You mentioned the rams being live for an upset to end out super wild card weekend
19:06Is there better value to be had in betting the nfc championship odds?
19:10It's got to be the rams like that's where the value would lie because if we're looking at those odds there
19:14If the rams beat the vikings the route and if the eagles take care of business
19:18Then we have two teams that are ahead of the rams immediately eliminated, right now. We're working with the spots like okay
19:24We we have some we have some good line movement. Those two teams are gone
19:27So the number will drop on the ramp
19:29So this may need maybe a spot where I don't believe the rams are the best team
19:32I still think would be come down to the lions or the eagles but just getting in on that line at 13
19:37One would be the spot that I go already took the rams at plus two and a half
19:40Like I said, and I will be taking them at 13 to one to win the division
19:43That's when the division win the conference that is we're past the division at this point
19:48Should be a great super wild card weekend saturday sunday and monday
19:51So if we do look at the super bowl odds as a whole i'm going to ask you this one question right now the favorite
19:55Detroit lions at three to one kansas city chiefs at plus 350 clearly a tier of two
20:00Do you agree that the lines should be the favorite here to win the super bowl?
20:04Probably
20:05I know a lot of people just probably they don't want to bet on the chiefs
20:08So maybe there's just more money on the lines and that's where the odds may be
20:12uh, I have a
20:13I have a future on the lines to play the chiefs. It's not about either team beating one another
20:18It's just about that direct matchup
20:19so that's what i'm certainly hoping to see but if you were to tell me we we're going to see the the
20:23The chiefs versus the eagles like obviously not to be surprised at that point if we're going to be seeing
20:27The lines versus the bills
20:28I know that's a matchup a lot of people want to see just because they want to see
20:31Other franchises when i'm not gonna be surprised but I think the odds are super spot on this year
20:35It's not like what we've seen in previous years
20:37We've known who the best teams are since the start of the season and people want to talk about you know
20:42Maybe the chargers making a run maybe the steelers making a run
20:44But it really comes down to like just these two or three teams from each conference
20:48And that's just it is what it is this year
20:51The one seeds as we learned last night on the broadcast since we have seen
20:56One seed be a thing in the national football league their ability to play in super bowls
21:01The cream does rise to the top throughout an nfl postseason becky
21:06Looking at the opening round of the nfl postseason super wild card weekend six matchups two on saturday a triple header on sunday
21:14And a monday night night cap in los angeles to end it out
21:18You mentioned the rams plus two and a half keeping an eye on the total for that eagles and packers game midway in the afternoon
21:25on sunday
21:27An early line approach from your nfl postseason handicapping. Where else might you be looking?
21:34Uh, that's bo nix over 34 and a half passing attempts, you know what we saw from the broncos yesterday, right?
21:40They win 38 nothing they're out in front the entire game bo nix leads the team in rushing
21:46They don't have a single running back that can get to 50 yards
21:50And this is what i've been saying for weeks at this point. The broncos cannot run the ball
21:54They have this three-headed monster in the backfield and none of them are good
21:57So when you have a game script where you're up by literally several touchdowns
22:01And you can't control the ground game to have a single running back get to 50 yards
22:06And they're gonna be eight and a half or nine point underdogs by the time that game closes
22:09Bo nix is going to have to throw the ball because they cannot move the ball on the ground
22:13So it is juiced a little bit at minus 130 minus 135 whatever but that has to be the early
22:18the early spot to take
22:20Under on the eagles game because i'm expecting some weather to impact that and then I like the rams at plus two and a half
22:25That's what it comes down to I also wouldn't hate taking
22:28Uh cj stroud over on passing yards or passing attempts
22:32It's probably not going to be efficient by any means, but he'll probably have to get there for the texans to stay in it
22:39And the texans are a field goal underdog at home to start off our first game
22:44Of our saturday devil header in the opening round becky
22:47Oh, we saw tom's top props for this monday outside of the nfl without any actual games on this monday
22:54Whether on the hardwood or on the ice, where are you looking?
22:58Uh devil's three-way money line that means eight to win in regulations sitting at minus 125 couple game losing streak for them
23:04There's somebody just better than the seattle crack and I expect them to bounce back come away with the win
23:07Josh hart over nine and a half rebounds carlton towns is listed as questionable
23:11He left the most recent game early and even if we look back at the game log for josh harley
23:15He's piling up 12 13 16 14 rebounds in some of these games
23:18Even with carlton towns is playing carlton towns does need to be out there tonight against the magic when the the knicks are heavy favorites
23:23So just let josh hart do his thing rest carlton in towns
23:27Nine game nba slate tonight the knicks a 12-point home favorite against orlando
23:32Inside madison square garden tv tom vecchio. We appreciate you as always cfp early lines next