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00:00From the college football playoff now we set the stage once again for week 18.
00:05All of the stakes based on the outcomes of our regular season finale weekend
00:10within the National Football League. We have talked a lot about that NFC
00:15playoff picture but we go back to it because really it doesn't get better
00:19than what we are going to see in this conference decided by the very final
00:23regular season game of this season. That is Detroit and Minnesota. Joe I asked you
00:29earlier in the show if these teams flip-flop the Lions are a two and a half
00:34point favorite on Sunday night in game 272 but if the Vikings can pull off the
00:39upset and they become the one seed in the NFC and the NFC North champs and the
00:44Lions are now a wildcard team that would have to play strictly road games in hopes
00:50of reaching an NFC championship or appearing in the first ever Super Bowl
00:54in franchise history. Would that change your outlook? You said no. Would it
01:01change your outlook for Minnesota if the Vikings were the top team and not the
01:06top wildcard team as the five seed? Yeah I think the Vikings at home are
01:12interesting if they have if they have that. I also think the bye comes into
01:18play here for some of these teams the Lions and the Vikings. Which team gets a
01:23week off to rest? Which team has got to go to the grind? But which is what makes
01:28that whole five six and seven seed and how that finishes extremely interesting.
01:35So we all know it's going to be the Lions of the Vikings in that fifth seed
01:38right? So in all likelihood it's going to be the Bucs or the Rams playing that
01:43team. If it's the Lions or if it's the Vikings I don't think it changes very
01:50much there. I think the the Eagles the two and three seed however that may
01:55however that may end up I think that is where some of the value or the upsets
02:01could come into play here. Because I don't see the Lions or quite honestly
02:05even the Vikings being an underdog in the first round if they have to play. If
02:10the Vikings finish in the fifth seed no way are they going to be an underdog
02:14having to travel on the road to take on Tampa or the Rams. Don't see it. I think
02:20both the Lions and the Vikings will have favorable odds in their favor moving
02:25forward. It is a really compelling point Joe because I would agree for most of
02:31this season it seemed like whatever top wildcard team out of the NFC North
02:35finished in the five spot they would be a road favorite even in that opening
02:39round. But there's a lot still to be determined within the NFC playoff
02:43picture. Here are our certainties. Philadelphia is the two seed in the NFC.
02:49The winner of Detroit Minnesota on Sunday night will be the one seed. The
02:53loser will be in the five spot. Washington in pole position to be the
02:58sixth seed. But how much do they want to play on Sunday? They are a three and a
03:04half point favorite on the road in Dallas. That number working up from a
03:08flat field goal. I bet it yesterday. I should know if Washington wins at the
03:13star. They're the sixth seed. If the commanders lose in the Packers who are
03:18nearly a double digit favorite against the lifeless Bears at home in Lambeau on
03:22Sunday win. Green Bay is the sixth seed. I think that is very compelling. Why?
03:28Because whether it's the Rams or the Buccaneers and we'll talk about the
03:32three four split in a second, I think you would rather be the sixth seed take
03:36it on the three seed than be the seventh seed to have to visit
03:39Philadelphia on the road at the link to start your playoff run. I agree. Not a
03:45great matchup in any way, shape or form. But I also don't think Washington is
03:50going to roll it in there at all. You know, former defensive coordinator there
03:56for Dallas. I doubt very much he's going to want to go back there and lose and no
04:01cd lamb. We saw what there's no bite left in that Dallas offense. I think the
04:07commanders go out, handle business, lock up that number six seed and the Packers
04:12well, Packers are going to be interesting because it could very well
04:16be two outdoor teams going to Philadelphia to battle it out. I think
04:22that might be the interesting one to start. Could the Eagles throw up all
04:28over themselves at home in the playoffs been known to happen. The Rams have a
04:34very long price right now to win the NFC at 10 to 1 Philadelphia plus 332nd
04:40best number. We'll talk about the stakes for the three four split between the
04:44Rams and the Buccaneers in just a moment because we are coming up on the
04:49commercial break. But let me present you the two spreads for each team's regular
04:54in week 18. The Buccaneers are a 14 and a half point home favorite against the
04:58Saints. Tampa must win the game to win the NFC South. Thus it is incredibly
05:06important. The Rams have already won the NFC West. They will take on the
05:10Seahawks. L. A. Is a field goal underdog at home. What it would mean if the odds
05:17are correct and what it means for the NFC championship. Next, let's continue
05:21looking at the NFC playoff picture and we will talk about Game 2 72 and its
05:27impact on the standings in the prices to win a conference championship in just
05:32a moment. But one final point because a lot of seating at stake on Sunday in
05:37the regular season finale weekend for the NFC playoff picture again are
05:42certainties. The Eagles are the two seed. The winner of Games 2 72 between
05:47the Vikings and the Lions will be the one seed in the champions of the NFC
05:51North. The loser will be the top wild card team in that five spot. If the
05:56commanders win on Sunday, they're the 60. They're a 3.5 point favorite in
06:00Dallas. If the commanders lose to the Cowboys in the Packers, take care of
06:05business against the Chicago Bears in Lambeau Green Bay lay in 9.5. It would
06:10be the Packers in that six spot, which is important as well because the 34
06:15matchup right now would be the Rams in the Buccaneers or the 34 split. I
06:20should say L. A. Is a three point home underdog against Seattle on Sunday. The
06:27Rams have already won the NFC West. The Buccaneers are a 14.5 point home
06:33favorite against the Saints on Sunday. Tampa needs must win the NFC South with
06:41a victory against the Saints on Sunday. If for some reason, New Orleans and
06:47Spencer Rattler pull off the outright upset, which would be unheard of, New
06:52Orleans would then give a big gift to the Atlanta Falcons, who would have to
06:56take care of business against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, and the
07:00Falcons would win the NFC South. So that's what's really compelling. Joe
07:04Buccaneers need to win this game to win the division and earn that playoff
07:08berth. But if they win the game and they should is more than a two touchdown
07:13favorite in the Rams who have already wrapped up the NFC West say, All right,
07:16we don't really need Matthew Stafford or Pukanukuwa or Cooper Cup out there
07:20against the Seahawks, as the odds would indicate as a field goal underdog at
07:25home, the Bucs would vault the Rams in those standings and become the three
07:30seed based on a better conference win percentage.
07:34Yeah, and history tells us I wouldn't expect a whole lot of the starters for
07:40the Rams to play here, right? That's not how McVeigh rolls here. I don't think
07:45he cares one way or another, although he is 11 and five against the number
07:50versus Seattle as the Rams head coach, including 10 and two against the number
07:55since 2019. So he certainly the Rams and McVeigh have certainly dominated the
08:01Seahawks over the years with McVeigh as the coach. But again, I don't see I
08:09don't see a whole lot of risks being taken. And we also know for the Bucs,
08:14it's one of the worst spots to be in here, Ben, because we the numbers are
08:18clear as day over the last couple of decades, teams that head into the final
08:23week of the season, having to win against the team that has nothing to
08:29play for. Yeah, guess what? It's usually the team has nothing to play for is the
08:34one that ends up staying within the number and covering the spread. And that
08:39is a huge spread right there for the Bucs. And we've seen them. Yeah, we've
08:45seen them lose some games they should have won already this year. It has
08:49dropped back down below two touchdowns. It was 13 and a half. It opened 14 and a
08:54half. Now back to 13 and a hook. I will say this since week 13, we talked about
08:59how profitable favorites have been just winning outright, maybe not profitable,
09:03but how good they have been winning outright favorites of six points or more
09:08since week 13 or 29 and one straight up. The only outright loser was
09:14Indianapolis last Sunday against the New York Giants. So Tampa should win the
09:18game. Are they going to cover laying about two touchdowns? That remains to be
09:23seen. Game 2 72 Detroit is a two and a half point favorite against the
09:28Minnesota Vikings. Our total stands at 57 and a half. It would be the highest
09:32over under in the sport since the 2021 NFL season. But Joe, it's not
09:38necessarily about how many points we see on Sunday night in the true regular
09:42season finale. It's who wins the game outright and thus maybe who covers less
09:47than a field goal spread. How do you believe the side will play out? What
09:52will the outcome be in the Motor City on Sunday?
09:56Well, I mean, history tells us Jared Goff when he's played the Vikings, uh,
10:02as the quarterback for Detroit, he's seven and oh against the number. It's
10:05the best mark of any quarterback in the NFC North versus Minnesota in the last
10:1120 years. Not to mention favorites. Ben, you alluded to it in prime time games
10:17this season, 45 and 12 straight up. And that also includes a five and oh mark by
10:24this Lions team in prime time. All signs point. This is exactly what the
10:29Lions want. They would have it no other way than to play for the top seed at
10:36home against Minnesota. Uh, if it ain't broke, man, are we fixing it in here? I
10:43don't know that that's the best way to approach this game. I really don't.
10:47Yeah, I would agree. 10 and five against the number. That's Detroit this year as
10:51a favorite last year as a favorite 11 and five ATS under Dan Campbell now
10:56going on for full seasons, 48 and 22 against the number, a 68.6% cover
11:03percentage. It is the best in the National Football League. I bet the
11:07Lions on Sunday when this line opened up for game to 72 laying two and a half,
11:13it's still two and a half. It's heavy juice. If you want to get under a field
11:17goal for Detroit, it's minus 1 22. By the time we reach Sunday night, could
11:22this be a flat three? I would not be surprised. Let's flip our attention now
11:27to those NFC championship odds because a lot will change in terms of the
11:31seating, Joe, based on the results of Sunday, the winner of Sunday night
11:36champions of the NFC North home field advantage in that number one overall
11:41seed. The Lions will enter week 18 as the favorites within the NFC right now.
11:47The Eagles back by over a dollar plus 3 30. The Vikings to me, Joe, the most
11:52compelling price for most of this season. I think the overall assessment
11:57on Minnesota. What a great story, man. Winning games. Maybe they should not
12:01winning games close. Sam Donald has been a revelation, but at a certain
12:06point, Cinderella's glass slipper will sit back on. It really hasn't been the
12:11case, Joe for Minnesota. They look the part of a true conference title
12:16contender. Do you view the Vikings as such?
12:21Listen, it's they are quite compelling here, Ben. We keep waiting for the
12:26wheels to fall off again. This was a team that was slated to win. What? 6.5
12:31I think was their win total. Uh, and here they are in the verge of a 15 win
12:37season. So, uh, one can make the argument that they are playing way
12:41above their pay grade at this point, and at some point it will come crashing
12:46down. Usually the, uh, we know that the playoffs is usually when we see teams
12:51who have overperformed come back down to reality. But hey, you know,
12:56Cinderella's are a real thing, right? Maybe not so much in college basketball,
13:01but certainly in the NFL, they could very well represent the NFC in the
13:06big game, which is kind of crazy to think since we all expected them to win
13:116.5 games or less. Kind of crazy. I do think there is some value for those
13:17four digit prices that you are seeing on the Rams, the Bucks and the
13:21commanders. At least L. A. And Washington or L. A. And Tampa, excuse
13:25me, with some playoff pedigree would be hosting a game to start off the
13:30postseason. I do believe there is a different tier for the Lions in the
13:35Eagles. But again, maybe some value if you can win a game or two in the NFC
13:41playoff bracket. Let's look at the A. F. C. Quickly. We'll discuss what is at
13:45stake for the final weekend on the other side of the break. There's a lot
13:49to figure out, but a little bit less at the same time. In comparison to the
13:54NFC, our top two seeds are locked. The Chiefs and the Bills. The Ravens are a
13:5917.5 point favorite against the Browns on Saturday. They should win the A.
14:03F. C. North. They will be the three seed. The Texans are locked in to the
14:07four seed as well. If for whatever reason, Baltimore would be upset by the
14:13Browns and the Steelers beat the Bengals at home on Saturday night,
14:18Pittsburgh would win the A. F. C. North. That is highly, highly unlikely. But if
14:23the Steelers beat the Bengals, they would lock in the five C. The Chargers
14:28aren't locked into a wild card spot. They've earned their playoff berth.
14:32We'll talk about what is at stake in the A. F. C. Wild card picture on the
14:37other side of the break here on the early line. Live right here on the
14:40early line, figuring out the stakes for the A. F. C. Playoff picture entering
14:45week 18 again. Back to that playoff graphic. The top two seats locked in
14:50the Chiefs. The one the bills, the two. The Ravens, a 17.5 point favorite on
14:54Saturday afternoon against the Cleveland Browns. We're probably going
14:58to trot out Dorian Thompson Robinson to stay in the hunt for that number one
15:02overall pick. The Ravens are a minus 20,000 favorite to win the A. F. C.
15:07North. It would be highly unlikely for that not to be the case. The Houston
15:11Texans are locked in to the four spot. So let's figure out where things stand
15:16in the wild card seeds. If the Steelers who will host the Bengals on Saturday
15:22night, it's just a point and a half spread in favor of Cincy, albeit on the
15:27road in the Steel City. If Pittsburgh wins that game, they are the top wild
15:32card team. Assuming that before them, the Baltimore Ravens win the A. F. C.
15:36North with a beat down of the Browns. So that would be big for the Chargers who
15:42play on Sunday currently is a 5.5 point road road favorite in Las Vegas. If the
15:48Steelers lose right now, they're a slight home underdog against Cincy. The
15:53Chargers could move up to the five spot. I think the more desirable opening
15:57round matchup is a visit to Houston and a potentially nine and eight Texans team
16:03or 10 and seven Houston team that has not been playing its best football
16:07really all year, but certainly in the last month and a half than a visit to
16:11Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. So those are the stakes, Joe,
16:17for those top two wild card spots, the five of the six seats currently.
16:22Yeah. And will any of it matter, Ben? Because the top three seats in the A. F.
16:28C. It really doesn't matter. I mean, it's gonna come down to are the Chiefs
16:33playing the bills? Are they playing the Ravens? I don't see unlike the N. F. C.
16:39Where we saw some value in that 567 slot there. We don't I don't see any
16:45value here with these teams. I think it's ultimately very top heavy in the
16:49A. F. C. The Chiefs bills of the Ravens are gonna be representing and in all
16:54likelihood the Super Bowl champion this year. And there is still one wild card
17:00spot to figure out. But just to echo what Joe said right there, you can look
17:04at the A. F. C. Championship odds and see exactly that it is a tier of three.
17:09It has been a tier of three more than likely come the A. F. C. Postseason. It
17:13will be a tier of three. The Chiefs are the favorites at plus 1 55. The bills
17:19have the second best number at plus 2 60. Just about a dollar behind the
17:25Ravens have a buck behind Buffalo at plus 3 10. And then look at the drop
17:30off from the Ravens to the Chargers at 15 to 1. The Texans will host a game.
17:37They're priced when the A. F. C. Championship is 21 to 1. One of those
17:42three teams, the odds expect and I think we expect Joe, the Chiefs, the
17:46bills and the Ravens are going to win the A. F. C. Championship. But again,
17:51back to what is at stake to end out the regular season. One more spot to be
17:57earned in terms of that wild card picture within the A. F. C. The most
18:02likely is simply this. The Denver Broncos minus 6 50 to earn a playoff
18:08spot this weekend. They're an 8.5 point favorite on Sunday at home in
18:14mile high hosting the Chiefs backups. Excuse me. That would be Carson Wentz
18:20and Kansas City. Let's start there. Joe, are the Broncos in danger at all of
18:26losing a game against Casey's reserves as more than a touchdown favorite at
18:31home?
18:33Got to win, right? That's kind of what we what we get here this time of year.
18:38Uh, and even against the backups in Kansas City, of course, there's a
18:42chance with a rookie quarterback that you don't get the game. Uh, and then
18:47you, you really got to have a lot of things, uh, you know, go your way there.
18:51However, I do think they had this in the back of their mind. They had two
18:56shots to win one game, right? Last week, they couldn't get it done against
19:00Cincinnati almost, but they knew in the back of their head, they had
19:03already watched Kansas City beat Pittsburgh on Christmas, clinched that
19:07one seed. So they knew in the back of our head, even if we don't win this
19:11game, we still have an opportunity against a Mahomes less Kansas City
19:16team. I think they get it done. You want to control your destiny. They're in
19:21control of it right now, but it is the NFL. And we know teams who have to win
19:27don't often win this time of year. That is always the case. Joe, the Denver
19:33Broncos are the best favorite in the national football league. They have
19:37been booked as a favorite seven times. They are a perfect 70 against the
19:41number covering by an average margin of better than 12 points per game. They
19:46have only covered actually in all seven games. They have played a team that is
19:51below 500. They have covered in every one of those as an underdog against
19:56teams above 500. They are four and five against the spread. So a slightly
20:00different story for Denver. Well, then the chiefs are 15 and one. The chiefs
20:06with Carson Wentz as the starter would probably be a six and 10 football team,
20:11a seven and nine football team at this moment. And it's not just Carson Wentz,
20:16it's everybody else. Andy Reed has already shared. It will be no starters.
20:21It will be reserves in large part for KC. The Broncos now a nine and a half
20:26point favorite. If for some reason Denver loses, that opens the door for
20:32Miami and Cincinnati. The Broncos will already know if the Bengals have any
20:38hope because the Bengals play on Saturday night against the Steelers
20:41since he is a slight point and a half favorite on the road in Pittsburgh.
20:46Again, the Steelers more than likely will need that game to lock up the five
20:51seed and not play the Ravens in the opening round, but rather play the
20:56Texans still important for both sides. So we shall see the Dolphins,
21:01regardless of the result for Cincinnati, will play in the afternoon window
21:06against the New York Jets with a chance to earn that final spot. They would
21:12need a Broncos loss. But if the Broncos lose, even if the Bengals win, Miami
21:18wins and they are into the postseason because of a better conference record
21:23than that of the Bengals. Miami, as you will see, a one and a half point road
21:30favorite in New York against the Jets. That was a two and a half point spread
21:34just yesterday, Joe. Yeah, and again, question marks around to a will he go?
21:41Won't he go? Who's going to be the quarterback? Uh, you know, if they it's
21:47such a tough spot here and a tough team to back in this, and I think we know the
21:53Jets aren't going to lay it all out on the line.