🚨 Massive policy shift alert!
The U.S. is officially stepping away from its role as a "neutral mediator" in the Russia–Ukraine war 🇷🇺🇺🇦 — and Lt. Col. Daniel Davis along with defense analyst Glenn Ignazio are here to break it all down. 🎙️🔥
⚠️ What does this mean for diplomacy, escalation, and the risk of broader war?
🧠 Are we witnessing the death of peace talks — or the start of something far more dangerous?
🔍 In this Deep Dive, we expose the motives, risks, and hidden power dynamics behind this sudden policy reversal.
🧭 A must-watch for anyone trying to understand where this war is really heading.
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments — the world needs more informed voices.
🔔 Subscribe for more high-stakes analysis that cuts through the noise.
#DanielDavis #GlennIgnazio #DeepDive #USUkrainePolicy #RussiaUkraineWar #Geopolitics #PeaceTalksDead #USForeignPolicy #GlobalConflict #WarUpdate #DiplomacyCrisis #NATOWatch #NeutralityOver #MilitaryAnalysis #UkraineCrisis #RealTalk #EscalationAlert #WorldAffairs #PolicyShift #DefenseExperts
The U.S. is officially stepping away from its role as a "neutral mediator" in the Russia–Ukraine war 🇷🇺🇺🇦 — and Lt. Col. Daniel Davis along with defense analyst Glenn Ignazio are here to break it all down. 🎙️🔥
⚠️ What does this mean for diplomacy, escalation, and the risk of broader war?
🧠 Are we witnessing the death of peace talks — or the start of something far more dangerous?
🔍 In this Deep Dive, we expose the motives, risks, and hidden power dynamics behind this sudden policy reversal.
🧭 A must-watch for anyone trying to understand where this war is really heading.
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments — the world needs more informed voices.
🔔 Subscribe for more high-stakes analysis that cuts through the noise.
#DanielDavis #GlennIgnazio #DeepDive #USUkrainePolicy #RussiaUkraineWar #Geopolitics #PeaceTalksDead #USForeignPolicy #GlobalConflict #WarUpdate #DiplomacyCrisis #NATOWatch #NeutralityOver #MilitaryAnalysis #UkraineCrisis #RealTalk #EscalationAlert #WorldAffairs #PolicyShift #DefenseExperts
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NewsTranscript
00:00We are now at a time where concrete proposals need to be delivered by the two parties on how to end this conflict.
00:11How we proceed from here is a decision that belongs now to the president.
00:16If there is not progress, we will step back as mediators in this process.
00:22Wow, concrete proposals.
00:24That was a couple of days ago where a spokeswoman for the State Department, Tammy Bruce, said we are at a point.
00:33We've been showing you here for the last several weeks or so that various American officials said we are nearing the point.
00:40Now then here, Tammy Bruce says we are at a point where we want concrete proposals or the president will have to make some hard decisions.
00:48That was two days ago.
00:49In a minute, I'm going to show you what she said yesterday, which was another step in that direction.
00:55But before we get into that, I want to introduce to you a new guest that we have today.
00:59His name is Glenn Ignazio, is a retired Air Force Special Operations Commander and presently a military expert in tech, software, intel, and defense issues.
01:10First of all, Glenn, just welcome to the show.
01:12Glad to have you on board.
01:14Absolutely.
01:14Thanks for the invite.
01:15Looking forward to it.
01:16And, listen, because you're new to our audience, I wonder if you can tell us a little bit about yourself, about what you did in the Air Force, and especially for this conversation, especially, that you've been on the ground in Ukraine.
01:28So you bring a different perspective than most of us have.
01:31Yeah, I appreciate it.
01:32So I spent 22 years in the Air Force.
01:34I actually enlisted, so I was one of the Mustangs there.
01:38It took me about six years to get my degree.
01:39All I wanted to do was fly.
01:40So I finally got commissioned, and I flew for Special Operations Combat Rescue my entire career.
01:45So very fortunate at that.
01:47You know, after I retired, I was in Silicon Valley.
01:49That's where I lived.
01:50And basically spent my time translating, you know, the technology to operations and vice versa, because I felt like there was a shortage in that.
01:58So we were able to get things into the intelligence special operations world, all the gadgets, as best as possible.
02:03But after retiring from that, the biggest thing that I could say is, you know, that humanitarian aid, the sort of carrying it forward kind of thing.
02:11So helping people get out and coordinating activities during the Afghanistan debacle.
02:16And then even more recently, a good friend of mine and I decided to get involved in the humanitarian aspects in Ukraine.
02:23And we basically saw and thought that Odessa is going to fall.
02:27And so we set up evacuation networks throughout the country to get elderly and kids and anybody out of the combat zone.
02:34And being two guys, we actually taught the military, militia, and everything how to do that.
02:38But, yeah, I was there on the ground.
02:40And I think the biggest thing for me was seeing, honestly, the indiscriminated killing and targeting of civilians from the Russians.
02:47That was the hardest to stomach in the entire time over there.
02:50But that's me in a nutshell.
02:52And when were you there and when were you last there?
02:55It's about a year and a half ago.
02:57And my teammate has been there almost every month or every three weeks for, I think, since the beginning.
03:05So he's still over there right now.
03:06So we're still plugged in and I sort of give him that overwatch being back here.
03:10Wow.
03:11Well, that's that's that's one of the things that drives us more than anything in our coverage of this war is the impact it has on the civilian population.
03:19And really, even not even just the civilian population, the effect it has on all the people, the civilians, the military folks on the Russian side, on the Ukraine side.
03:27This is just one time destruction.
03:29And it just is egregious to see.
03:32So I just hand off to you and kudos for you to do whatever you can to try to get people out of harm's way.
03:37God bless you.
03:38Yeah, thanks, man.
03:39I mean, honestly, it's just it doesn't matter where in the world and we've all got the experiences of it.
03:43It's just don't like seeing suffering, especially of the civilians.
03:46So it's it's on all sides of the military, too.
03:49But, yeah, appreciate it greatly.
03:50Yeah, well, well, let's get into this, because the issue here at stake is since Trump came to office, he said initially, I'm going to have that once you actually back up a little bit further.
04:01When he won the election in November of last year, he said, I'm going to have this whole war thing solved before I even get into office.
04:08And then he says, OK, what on the first day I'll have the thing solved.
04:11And then then he goes and say, all right, well, actually, it's going to end up being about 100 days.
04:16And then as we started getting toward the end of that 100 days, you started seeing more and more people say things like, well, if we can get it solved, then if we can't, we may end up being willing to walk away.
04:28So now then, with that soundbite from Tammy Bruce a couple of days ago, it sounds like we're getting near that point.
04:34Well, yesterday we had Tammy Bruce again seem to take it one step further.
04:39The president wants in every action that we've taken as a nation to do it diplomatically, that he wants clearly because of the, you know, the commitment to it.
04:50And yet he knows also that there is another part of the world, a whole globe that needs some attention.
04:56And the secretary has also made it very clear that while our style will change, the methodology of how we contribute to this will change in that we will not be the mediators.
05:07That is what I mentioned on Tuesday and the nature of how this would change is we would not, we certainly are still committed to it and we'll help and do what we can.
05:15But we are not going to fly around the world at the drop of a hat to mediate meetings that it is now between the two parties.
05:22And now, now is the time that they need to present and develop concrete ideas about how this conflict is going to end.
05:30It's going to be up to them.
05:32Okay.
05:33So again, that's kind of a categorical thing.
05:35And by the way, to all of our audience, be sure and like, and subscribe if you haven't already, that helps us more than you may know.
05:41But let's, let's go now to what she said there, because now then we will not be the mediators.
05:46That is a major, major change, at least according to my ears here, because a couple of days ago, she said it, she said it, said it, that this is basically an advancement to that.
05:56And now then it's up to the president.
05:58It sounds like maybe the next thing we're going to hear is that we're going to walk away.
06:01How do you read that?
06:03Yeah.
06:03I mean, unfortunately we see this, you know, stepping, stepping away.
06:06I mean, when, when I heard it at the beginning of like, I'm going to stop the war in 24 hours, I thought the idea of, Hey, you can have a ceasefire and stop the conflict, at least, excuse me, the fighting in 24 hours.
06:17But the complexities, I think it's just having some situational awareness that wasn't there that they have now.
06:23But in this sort of stepping stage, I think he realizes that, Hey, Putin isn't really a ponying up and telling the truth.
06:29And he understands some of the challenges that's happening within Ukraine.
06:33I think a little bit more face value and seeing what's unfolding, you know, I always thought that we were going to be the mediator.
06:38And I was happy because finally there was dialogue with Putin, which we, we never saw in the Biden administration.
06:44There was no talking.
06:44It's like, he's the enemy.
06:45And honestly, how do you get pieces negotiations?
06:48So to see this, I think he's got a lot of pressure against Ukraine as far as what the military aid is going to be.
06:55And if there'll be any yet at the same time, he's now got pressure against Putin with sanctions and so forth.
07:01And maybe just trying to leverage that, but not be as detailed involved.
07:06It is troubling because I feel, again, this was the most we could step into trying to get them to a ceasefire.
07:12But, you know, it's going to be very interesting what the next steps are in the coming weeks.
07:17And maybe Rubio, so Tammy Bruce is the spokeswoman for the State Department.
07:23But the head of the State Department, Marco Rubio, last night went on Hannity.
07:28And it seemed to, I don't know if you could say that he went a little bit further, but he certainly reinforced what she said about implying that the end was coming for Trump.
07:38The Obama administration refused to provide the Ukrainians any military weapons.
07:43They would provide him blankets and sheets and towels and, you know, but they wouldn't give him weapons.
07:48Donald Trump, when he was president the first time, provided them the weapons that actually helped stop the Russian tanks from taking Kiev, even when he was no longer in the White House a few years later.
07:57This invasion would have never happened if Donald Trump were in the White House.
08:01But it did.
08:01It happened after Joe Biden.
08:03It happened just a few months after the fiasco in Afghanistan.
08:06And I think everyone realizes Putin saw that and said, now's my time to go.
08:11I have a weak president under Joe Biden.
08:12And he went.
08:13And this war dragged on for three years.
08:15Look, you ask how close we are.
08:17I think we know where Ukraine is and we know where Russia is right now and where Putin is.
08:21They're still far apart.
08:22They're closer, but they're still far apart.
08:25And it's going to take a real breakthrough here very soon to make this possible.
08:29Or I think the president is going to have to make a decision about how much more time we're going to dedicate to this.
08:34Now, that's that's that last phrase here that, you know, I don't know how much more time the president's going to dedicate to this.
08:41Rubio said two weeks ago that it was a matter of days.
08:44Last week, a week ago, on Sunday on the news talk shows, he indicated that, again, it was a matter of days.
08:51Now, then, here at the end of the week, he's again saying that we have tried everything else.
08:57And it seems to me and I want to see what your assessment is, that one of the change of tax has been maybe over the last two or three weeks that they seem to both Trump himself and many of his senior advisers or, you know, even cabinet secretaries have been going out of their way to say this is Biden's war.
09:15And then now that here he's trying to tie it to the disaster of Afghanistan and how that got out and, you know, and all this stuff is Biden's fault.
09:22So it seems like he's ready to say, hey, we did everything we could.
09:25But this is Biden's fault. How do you see that part?
09:28Yeah. And, you know, I take things right down the middle and, you know, get away from the politics.
09:33But, you know, what I saw and the first, you know, being involved in the Afghanistan debacle was that debacle was so bad.
09:39And outside of what the media says, people need to understand how bad that was.
09:43So when we did that, I think we showed a weakness to our allies and across the board.
09:48So I believe that that was honestly a big domino that fell as we got into Ukraine.
09:52And you can look at a lot of the experts who said this and we've observed it, is that if we didn't sort of trickle the combat arms to them,
10:03the ability for the Ukraine to be able to fight back rather significantly would have been there.
10:07So we did have that. But how much did that impact the actual movement of the border and the conflict itself?
10:14You know, that's that's 2020 hindsight with some of it, but it's also reading the tea leaves with others.
10:18So I do see how that really triggered things to say one person would have stopped it or not.
10:24You know, you never know. You can't go back in time.
10:26But we did get into a bad position on this because everything just became a verbal threat.
10:31And over time, we just kept on giving more and more weapons without dialogue.
10:35So I do see how the prior administration was key on that.
10:39But at the same time, I don't see how it would have prevented things unless there would have been incredible,
10:45incredible threats from NATO against Russia at that time.
10:49Again, that's reading the tea leaves. We don't even know if that would occur.
10:52But the problem is that we have the situation we have now.
10:55And honestly, the conflict for, you know, coming up on three years past three years is is really problematic because the worst thing.
11:03I mean, we could throw all the weapons we want to Ukraine right now.
11:06But the biggest weakness they have is the amount of people that they have and the troops.
11:10And as we see with Russia, they don't care who they throw at it.
11:13They got the North Koreans and Chinese now coming in to support their troops.
11:17So this long game is really beneficial for Russia to win.
11:22But like I said, what's causing it, what didn't cause it?
11:25Honestly, you know, that's, again, reading the tea leaves.
11:28We can't go back in time.
11:30But there are factions of this from both sides that really caused this to occur.
11:34And so that's my best sense to it, you know.
11:37And then it's beyond the scope of our one show here to go back to all the reasons, all the causes.
11:43Although we're going to see Sergei Lavrov mention some of them in a minute.
11:46But I want to zero in on that point you made, especially because you've been on the ground and have a context of experience, you know, over the course of this war.
11:56When the war started off, it seemed like that Ukraine was at its high watermark probably in November or December of 2022 after they had taken Kyrgyzstan and driven Russia out of the Kharkiv area, etc.
12:09And prior to that, there had been a lot of training in the years prior to that.
12:13There had been a lot of NATO training.
12:15NATO trainers were on the ground.
12:17They had been growing their military, etc.
12:18And it seemed like they were fairly robust.
12:21In fact, even by the numbers, they were the largest army on the ground in Europe other than Russia itself.
12:28So that was kind of their high watermark.
12:30But then they have lost so many people over the years, whether it was the 2003 offensive where they just ran into a buzzsaw or the defending too long in cities like Bakhmut and Abdivka, etc.
12:43And then the Kyrgyzstan operation where they continue to lose people.
12:46And now it just seems like they don't even have enough people to offset losses.
12:49So is there any possible change of tactics that either the West or the United States could do that would even change the outcome?
12:58I mean, it would have to be.
13:00And again, this is speculative.
13:01But if you look at this from a strategy standpoint, is I don't see anything from a military, from a military perspective that is going to hold Putin at bay unless, say, President Trump pushed so many NATO resources to the border, pointing literally tanks, aircraft, missiles and everything towards Russia, you know, with an intimidation.
13:21But that is escalating things tremendously.
13:23But as far as Ukraine itself, you know, this was our comment with my friends on the ground.
13:30And so originally, the people that were drafted in conscription was 29 and older.
13:35And we were like, wait a minute, that's not the fighting military mindset that you want.
13:39You know, unfortunately, it's 18 to 25.
13:41It's the best fighters.
13:42And so then they reduced it to 27.
13:44Then they reduced it to 25, where you could conscript.
13:47But all you had to do was register.
13:48And they're still not getting enough people.
13:50So there's really no formal draft from, say, the 18-year-old on.
13:54And at that point, you're not going to get enough people to fight it, like it or not.
13:57And Kiev is like what Paris was in the 40s when the Nazis took over.
14:02There's a lot of military-age males sitting there, parting in, saying, it's not my war to fight.
14:07That mindset is one of the fractions that they have in Ukraine.
14:10And honestly, this is where Russia is going to dominate.
14:13And honestly, I don't know how they're going to be able to defend against this in time without some significant involvement from us or the rest of NATO or the European Union as a whole.
14:24That's the challenge for real on the ground right now.
14:27Yeah.
14:27And then, of course, that leads us to right where we are at this point, is that the Trump administration, I think, has been very frustrated.
14:34In fact, I know they have because I've heard from some of the senior advisors in the White House that they said he's very frustrated really by both sides because he's not getting anything that he wants from the Russian side.
14:46That's probably not too surprising.
14:47But he's also not getting anything he wants from the Ukraine side because they continue to push back primarily Zelensky.
14:52And really, kind of to show the real gap in where the two sides are right now, which I think underscores, and I frankly think this is probably why both the State Department and Rubio are specifically saying this.
15:05I'm going to show you the juxtaposition of what the two sides are saying right now on this whole issue of a unconditional ceasefire.
15:12First of all, let's go to Volodymyr Zelensky, who says that this has to come before we negotiate an end of the war.
15:19That it is the first step of a pandemic, which is the first step of a long term and long term of a world.
15:30And the leaders of the Ukraine and the meetings in Paris and the meetings in London, this week, have an essential task of a short term for the complete ceasefire.
15:46So he's he's that that was on the 21st of April, but he has maintained that position that has to come first.
15:56And it continues to say him and several other people, even some in Europe, says, no, the ceasefire unconditional has to come first.
16:05But the Russians have said from the outset that that's not what they would not go to an unconditional ceasefire under any circumstances.
16:13They had, as Putin said, nuances, et cetera. So if you have this big gap between what the West, meaning Ukraine and the in Europe, are saying about the sequencing of things and whether it's conditional or unconditional, it's going to be hard to see how you're going to get close this gap into a negotiation.
16:31Yeah, I completely agree. And my mindset and I think many others is that you have to have this complete ceasefire to stop things.
16:39When I saw, oh, we're not going to have fire from the sea and all these other things, I just thought that that's just not going to occur.
16:45But they also Ukraine has this experience, not trusting Putin, Putin whatsoever.
16:50And so I do believe that you have to have a complete ceasefire and stop the killing and killing is horrible.
16:55Believe me. But if you don't have that, the negotiation of where the borders are and where the lines are going to be drawn and all that stuff is going to be a lengthy process.
17:03So to stop the killing is the first trigger. I completely agree. But again, it's going to be a long process to negotiate where those lines are.
17:10But however, we saw where that truce was sort of or at least the ceasefire was established and Putin completely denied that.
17:16So you can't trust the guy. And again, he's increased his operations and strikes and so forth.
17:22And if you were to think that there is a ceasefire and a truce and negotiation coming, they're trying to grab as much real estate as they can.
17:30And it's troubling. But at this point, I think Trump knows he cannot believe Putin, whatever Putin says to him directly.
17:36So I think there's a sense to that. Maybe that's where the frustration is happening between the two.
17:40Yeah. And I think, you know, of course, there's some additional frustration because at least from the Russian side,
17:45they're claiming that the Easter truce was violated many times by the Ukraine side.
17:50The energy thing, really, both sides are saying that each side didn't abide by it and that they did, et cetera.
17:55So there's no trust on either side, which complicates the matter further.
17:59And then when you take a look at the issue with the balance of power, which you've already identified is clearly on the Russian side,
18:05especially in manpower. Here's what Sergei Lavrov is saying about that same ceasefire.
18:12The leaders of the European Union, Kajakalas and other representatives are now saying that Russia must unconditionally agree to a ceasefire
18:22solely because they are suffering defeats on the battlefield and their plans to inflict a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation will never materialize.
18:32Everyone already understands this perfectly well.
18:40Our proposal, as voiced by President Putin, is the start of direct negotiations without preconditions.
18:49A ceasefire in this situation is seen as a preliminary condition that will be exploited to further prop up the Kiev regime
18:57and strengthen its military capabilities.
19:00So when you have the Russian side saying we have the manpower issue, we have the industrial capacity,
19:07we have the ammunition and all that other kind of stuff, so we don't have to agree to a ceasefire.
19:11We want to get straight to the end of negotiations.
19:15And then they basically want to flip everything that you said the Ukraine side wants,
19:19which is we'll negotiate even in this lengthy process, all this stuff first.
19:23And then when that's agreed to, then we'll come to an end of ceasefire.
19:26Now, obviously, if you're for the Ukraine side or anybody who's from the Western side, they can hate that.
19:31They don't have to like it.
19:32But the fact is, we don't have either the leverage or the capacity to compel them to do anything different.
19:38I think we would already have done that.
19:40So what do you think that impasse does to where the war goes on the ground?
19:44I think, first of all, I'm glad we're able to talk about this in this detail.
19:49And I'll tell you, one of the things as we watched in that segment that popped in my head is a good friend of mine that is on the ground right now, my teammate.
19:56And he says, you know, if we look at it this way, if there was a ceasefire, it's almost like Putin sort of resigning and saying, you know, I quit.
20:05And the reason for that is because, you know, this invasion has perfectly or been executed, I wouldn't say perfectly been executed, but it's been executed by Russia into Ukraine.
20:14So they're the attackers or the offensive nature here.
20:16So I believe that Putin would basically be saying, hey, I surrender if they did a ceasefire.
20:22Ukraine has been in a defensive mode for so many years in this conflict where we and everybody else that gave weapons would allow them to attack Russia.
20:29So it is really interesting about saying, hey, we don't want a ceasefire because, you know, Kiev and Ukraine is going to build up and it's going to help them better.
20:37You know, honestly, it's not going to.
20:39It would actually help Russia significantly better if they did do a ceasefire.
20:44But at the same time, the longer this goes, the more real estate Russia gets.
20:48And right now they have a significant amount of those natural resources.
20:52They have almost every one of their coal mines and everything.
20:55So Russia is really tracking and putting Ukraine in a bad situation.
20:59So I understand why they don't want a ceasefire.
21:01It's, again, to the benefit of Russia.
21:03But again, it doesn't get it to the point of stopping this war.
21:07Now, the only thing that I liked about it, the only thing I liked about that statement was negotiations between the two parties directly.
21:15That needs to occur.
21:16I agree.
21:18But again, anything like this benefits Russia for movement into the country if they don't stop the ceasefire or they don't go to the ceasefire.
21:25But at the same time, a ceasefire does not really help Putin.
21:29It makes him look like he's surrendering.
21:31So there's a lot of facets to this.
21:33It's political.
21:34It's the ego and image that Putin fights for.
21:37And it's also the real estate that Russia is going to grab.
21:39So I hope that sort of makes sense because there's a lot of complexities in that one statement there.
21:43Yeah, there certainly is.
21:45And obviously, the side that has the most power and leverages in the history of any kind of negotiation always gets to basically call the shots because if they don't get what they want, they just keep going.
21:56Now, one of the other parts of that that Lavrov mentioned there was, you know, we want to get to the end of war negotiations.
22:05We want to start talking about those before we start talking about that.
22:08Well, he also said in that same conversation what he means when he says the root cause is.
22:14Once again, we laid out in detail our fundamental approaches to resolving this conflict by addressing its root causes.
22:28These consist of the years-long attempts to expand NATO eastward, right up to Russia's borders, and to absorb Ukraine into the North Atlantic Alliance, thereby creating direct threats to our security along Russia's borders.
22:44I also emphasized the importance of ending the practice adopted by the Kyiv regime of eradicating everything connected in any way to Russia and the Russian world, including language, culture, Russian language media, and the canonical Orthodox Church.
23:03Most participants of the meeting, when commenting on the Ukrainian situation, demonstrated growing understanding of our approaches.
23:11He also said, I think it was on Monday, it was reported in a Brazil newspaper when he was there for a BRICS meeting, that he said they laid out their conditions, and the two of the ones that I think are the most painful and may even be impossible for Ukraine to even agree to if they wanted to,
23:33and that is demilitarization and denazification, as Russia defines them.
23:40And they said, if we don't get that, we're going to continue fighting.
23:43Do you see any possibility, since you have some knowledge on the ground, that Ukraine would ever agree to a denazification, according to Russian definitions, and a demilitarization, which they said is somewhere around 100,000 total troops in their armed forces?
23:56Great. First of all, I'm glad you showed that statement, because I do want to talk about that denazification statement.
24:03So, first of all, is to demilitarize Ukraine. I don't see that happening, and honestly, that would be very dangerous for Ukraine in general, because of what we saw with Russia.
24:12So, I don't see that. The idea of saying you're not going to belong to NATO, honestly, there's not a problem with that, because the rest of Russia is surrounded by NATO.
24:19So, it's one of the things that I think I was uncomfortable with, and I think many people are comfortable with, of them belonging to NATO, but belonging to the EU.
24:27So, that economically is good for them. The other thing is, they don't want Zelensky in power anymore, and frankly, that's up to an election, so that's to be determined.
24:35But I'll tell you, the demilitarization of Ukraine, that ain't going to happen. I don't see anybody going to that.
24:41But, the denazification thing, really glad it came up, because this is something that existed, and I hope people don't take soundbites out of this, but it's true, is for many years on the border, the Azov, which was very extreme, they were the monsters you needed, because they were the only ones that stepped up to fight Russia and Crimea.
24:59But they're the monsters you don't like to have around, if that makes sense, you know, those type of military types.
25:03And they were the ones that were very extreme, and unfortunately, they wrote certain Nazi symbols on their craft and everything, and what they did want is that line is very blended between Russia and Ukraine.
25:15There's a lot of families on back and forth, it's always been that.
25:17They did influence an institute where you're not going to speak Russian, you're not going to have the Russian culture and everything on that border.
25:25That is true, and a lot of people didn't know that.
25:27Now, that was one of the things that Russia didn't like, and that's where they started amassing troops.
25:31Now, was that a reason to invade Ukraine? No.
25:34But, yes, that did exist, and that was one of the issues, and we saw Zelensky not really doing much about it.
25:40That's one of the triggers that a lot of people don't know historically that Russia wasn't happy with.
25:45The idea of NATO, you know what, they could be upset about that since, you know, everything went after the Berlin Wall fell.
25:51They're still pissed off at that.
25:52But at the same time, the denazification, yes, that really did occur, but that was not really a basis for Russia to invade.
25:59But, unfortunately, that's one of the negative attributes that Ukraine did have in the beginning, and people need to understand that.
26:04That's what one of the triggers were.
26:07Yeah, and so that leads us to the position to where, and again, we circle back to the beginning.
26:12The Trump administration says, I want the two sides to come together, but the Ukraine side is like, yeah, we're not going to do the demilitarization.
26:19And the Russian side says, yeah, we're not going to do an unconditional ceasefire.
26:23So there's just a block there that they're not going to get any closer to.
26:27And I guess we have to just be honest and say, if Trump wanted to mediate something and he sees these two sides being irreconcilable on this point, then there really isn't a lot of room for him to continue trying.
26:37Yeah, you're right.
26:40I mean, from the negotiation standpoint, absolutely.
26:42Now, let's throw in this minerals deal, because that's where we start seeing a little bit of a twist.
26:46With the minerals deal, okay, it is beneficial for both Ukraine and for us, because it's a 50-50 split.
26:52It's not like it was before where we're going to get paid for past war, you know, military equipment, and I get it.
26:57But the same point is, when we do that, when that deal was signed, that is the first part that's indicating.
27:03We have the United States being involved in the entire electrical grid and system is required for heavy mining.
27:17And for that to occur, the U.S. has to build it up.
27:20So that's one of our parts.
27:21Anytime with U.S. involvement, equipment, et cetera, with U.S. personnel, we're going to have to protect it.
27:26And that's an indicator to, you know, keep Russia out of it.
27:29So I believe that that's going to be a good thing.
27:31It's the first U.S. involvement in country.
27:33It's the first sort of deterrence that Russia has to face with not attacking.
27:37But that's going to take a long time.
27:39So with the U.S. involvement in that, I think that's beneficial to pushing towards peace.
27:44But, man, that's going to take a long time before all that stuff starts occurring.
27:48Yeah, and here's the problem.
27:50I don't know that there is a lot of time, and time is definitely not on the Ukraine side here.
27:55I want to play just a real short period piece from Weeb Union today, who's one of the guys who's been tracking the war from the beginning and really has, over time, has been proven to be really accurate in terms of how he assesses where the front lines are, et cetera.
28:12Here's what he said earlier today about the status on the front lines.
28:16There are several developments across the front line in one of the larger updates this year.
28:23The Russians have managed to advance several areas across the eastern section of the front line within the Donetsk region itself.
28:31They've advanced about 20 plus square kilometers, but they also managed to advance within the Sumy region in the north.
28:38And, of course, that Sumy region, it looks like Russia's about ready to put even more pressure up there.
28:44They're moving further south.
28:45It was, I think, the day before yesterday where Russia had reclaimed 29 square kilometers.
28:51So this is not like just inching up every day.
28:54There seems to be taking bigger and bigger chunks around the front line.
28:57So if this continues on and if the U.S. backs out of its mediating effort, how does that slow down?
29:04Because at some point, the Ukraine is going to be facing not a bad negotiation, but a military defeat.
29:10Unfortunately, you're getting to the truth of this.
29:13I mean, you mentioned it a little while ago about how portable Ukraine was a couple of years ago, and they did.
29:19They pushed them back and they should have put a ceasefire and stuff then.
29:22But right now, the Russian forces are pushing further and further and further into Ukraine.
29:28And that is one of the problems because, again, as they do that, the last coal mine, which they use for all the mining and everything, is about to be lost.
29:39And at that point, most of those natural resources that are rather significant are controlled by Russia.
29:44So, honestly, Russia can't handle the entire country of Ukraine.
29:48But what we do see is that Russia and Putin wants to go at least to Kiev and take from Kiev completely east and take that as their own ownership.
29:57Honestly, it seems like that's the objective.
29:59And unfortunately, we saw the lines barely move, almost like World War I for a long time.
30:05Now, unfortunately, because of all the killing, and now you have North Koreans come in and Chinese coming in, you're starting to see Russia move further and further into Ukraine.
30:15A big tactical mistake was when Ukraine went into Kursk.
30:20Now, I think they were trying to draw the Russians north, but unfortunately, they didn't have the supply chain.
30:25Ukraine didn't have the supply chain or the manpower to hold Kursk.
30:28I don't quite understand why they did that as far as materially or militarily planning, but that was one of their downfalls, and Kursk was lost.
30:37So, again, tactfully, strategically focused and trying to do the combined arms as far as joint work with the Ukrainian military, it's just not there.
30:47And unfortunately, as we see it each and every day, Russia is increasing, increasing its military force and presence on the east.
30:54And I'll tell you one thing that I, this is one of the reasons why I went over there on the humanitarian side, is if Russia, if Russia was to take Odessa, that would be a huge problem because all the ports are lost, and the only two entries into Ukraine is through Romania and Poland.
31:09And also, you can't remember, you can't forget, is in Moldovia and Trinistria, there's about 25,000 Russian troops sitting there, and that's way in the west.
31:18So, this could fall rather significantly and not too far in the future.
31:22So, there's a lot more at stake that a lot of people aren't thinking about from a war for and from a planning perspective.
31:28That's a great point, great point that too few seem to be willing to recognize.
31:32Let me ask you another question that you may be in a better position to answer than nearly anybody.
31:37What would happen on the Ukraine side, let's say that, say next week, and it literally could be that soon, that the Trump administration says, all right, we're not meeting, but we're out now.
31:49These guys aren't going to bridge their gap, we're out.
31:52So, good luck to Ukraine, to Europe.
31:54If y'all want to keep fighting this, that's up to you.
31:56But now it's between y'all, and we're not playing anymore.
31:59Now, there hasn't been any new aid other than this curious $50 million package that the administration put the other day, which is minuscule and doesn't really make any difference on anything.
32:09But if we don't even do those kinds of things anymore and back out, what impact psychologically, morally, will this have on the defenders within Ukraine if they know that U.S. is no longer even nominally having their military back?
32:22Yeah, I think militarily, as far as the folks that are fighting in the East, you know, they've been sort of neutral to this because they're fighting and they're focused on just nothing to the fighting.
32:33But as far as the morale, the morale is going to be hit because they're going to be wondering, what am I going to get for beans and bullets from that point to work?
32:42What is going to be the support from the weaponry that we're going to have?
32:45I think the rest of the country is going to be more politically jaded and emotional about it.
32:49But as far as the warfighters they're fighting on, I think that's the biggest question.
32:52It is the biggest question is what the U.S. is going to do.
32:55Now, if the U.S. is just going to be providing intelligence and so forth like that, OK, that is beneficial.
33:00But the problem is that the rest of NATO or the European Union is not up to a military as far as their industrial complex to support Ukraine in this conflict.
33:08And it would probably take eight months or more for them to give them the amount of weapons or at least try to get it to some kind of supply chain that was equal or close to the United States.
33:17That's where we don't know what the decision is from the Trump administration as far as what would the support be if we pulled out.
33:24That's where things really start tripping over, where Russia can really take and gain some real estate very quickly, and it's dangerous.
33:31And do you have any knowledge about some of the reports that we've seen, but they're spotty in that apparently there's already shortages on the front lines of ammunition for whether it's, you know, Bradley's or tanks or really any of these, even artillery shells,
33:48because the pipeline has shrunk so much from what it was at the end of the Biden administration that the Europe has not been able to offset, that there are already having shortages across the board.
33:58Is that accurate?
34:00Yeah, unfortunately, it is.
34:01You know, it's interesting is that the, let's get as simple as to each warfighter, you know, the IFACs, the individual first aid kits for trauma, the body armor and everything, they're shorter on that.
34:15And then you add on all this other artillery and everything.
34:17Absolutely.
34:18I mean, they have employed a lot of the weapons we've got, but they're not experts in it.
34:22So there's been a lot of waste.
34:23I'm not trying to criticize them.
34:24That's just a fact.
34:25But yeah, the numbers are dwindling, and that's where we have a problem.
34:28And again, their biggest thing, like I said, is if we flooded them with all the weapons that they need, it's still the people employing those weapons that they don't have.
34:37So unfortunately, it doesn't matter if we give them everything, they're not going to have enough troops.
34:41I'm not trying to be negative about it, but it's just a realistic sense.
34:45You've got to be realistic.
34:45And let me ask you, on the political and diplomatic front inside Kiev, what you have described there is stuff that we've been seeing for a long time.
34:57And again, if you take the emotion out of it and you just look at it as a military analysis, it's a pretty bleak picture.
35:03And it leads to one very clear conclusion that you either have an ugly negotiation where you get at least some leverage to make some kind of negotiations, or you may end up facing a complete military defeat where you get no choices on anything to include a line that may be up on the Dinefer River.
35:18Do you see any possibility that the Zelensky government may say, at some points, recognize, especially if the Trump administration says, all right, we've walked, that he may say, all right, now it's time to have a negotiated settlement and talk directly to Russia, because otherwise we're going to lose everything that we have up to the Dinefer.
35:38Do you see any chance of that?
35:41That's a million-dollar question.
35:43I mean, honestly, is, you know, Zelensky and everything as far as fighting and protecting their country, I get it.
35:51But unfortunately, at this point, everything and all the cards are really held, like it or not, by Putin.
35:56And Putin's the invader, and he's a stronger invader.
35:59So if Putin wants to go all the way to Kiev and says, I don't want a ceasefire, that could occur.
36:04And honestly, Putin, I don't think it cares if it's going to take two years, three years, one year, or five years.
36:08He's going to proceed.
36:09So there's going to have to be something.
36:11And unfortunately, if Kiev is going to stop this war and negotiate with Russia, it's going to be 100% on their terms.
36:18And I hate to say it, but that seems to be the case.
36:21Because right now they had 20%, at least the Russians had 20% of the country, and they're gaining and gaining and gating.
36:26And like I said, is how long is it going to take?
36:29Ukraine can't sustain the long game.
36:31And so denazification, sure, that's easy.
36:34Wipe out those problematic children on the Far East and make sure that doesn't occur.
36:38But demilitarizing, dangerous, which gives Russia a complete carte blanche to go as far as they want into Ukraine.
36:45So, yeah, I don't see how that's going to play out where Kiev was basically going to capitulate.
36:50The only thing I can see is that they would say, OK, take everything you've got right now.
36:54Let's stop the war.
36:54And that's it.
36:55And that's if Russia wants to take that.
36:57So I hate to say it, but it's in Russia's court to decide if they want to stop fighting or if they want to continue all the way to Kiev, even if it takes five years.
37:05Yeah.
37:05And I guess we'll find out maybe even as soon as next week if that's where the administration is going.
37:12One last question I have on this topic before I want to shift gears in the last few minutes we have.
37:16But that is on something that Budanov said there was was quoted as saying about six or seven weeks ago that he said that our forces probably would be hard pressed to continue providing actual cohesive defense up to maybe June or July.
37:34If in the middle of the summer or so, if we don't get some major changes, we may not be able to continue to provide resistance.
37:40Do you first of all, do you know if he actually said that?
37:43And second, whether he did or not, is that your assessment?
37:47Yeah, I wasn't sure if he said it or not.
37:48I didn't hear directly, so I'm not sure on that.
37:50But I'll tell you is that when right now it's the sort of what they say, the land of no roads.
37:55They have a term for it.
37:56But that's where the thaw starts from the winter and everything's just muddy.
37:59But actually, it wasn't really a brutal winter.
38:01So things are drying up quickly.
38:02So when that happens, that's where you usually see the big push.
38:06You see everybody just pushing forward in these big offenses.
38:09The last one, Ukraine didn't really have a big one.
38:11This one, we see Russia picking it up significantly with the attacks.
38:14And I think Russia's going to have a huge offensive as soon as the weather starts getting warm and drying out.
38:20To be able to stop that is going to be very problematic and troublesome for Ukraine.
38:24So I see Russia getting even more of a land grab here as soon as the summer warms up.
38:31And I don't know how much they're going to be able to defend.
38:33We shall see that.
38:34The only thing that Ukraine has had is how creative they've been with drones and others that have held Russia at bay.
38:39But like I said, you've got North Koreans, Chinese, and Russian forces.
38:43And right now, they've lost hundreds of thousands of more troops than Ukraine.
38:47And Putin doesn't even hesitate.
38:49That's just the guy he is.
38:50And that's the problem that we face in this war.
38:53Yeah, and like you say, we'll have to see, first, what happens domestically, politically in the United States, maybe as soon as next week with Trump.
39:02And then we'll see how things play out on the ground.
39:04But we'll continue to track that.
39:06In the last few minutes we have here, I want to ask you a different question from the United States side.
39:11And that is, of course, the National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, was technically reassigned, I guess.
39:18It depends on how that's going to work out going to the United Nations.
39:21But at the moment, we have the Secretary of State in a very unusual situation, is acting as the National Security Advisor and the Secretary of State.
39:31I want to show you something that John Alterman said on this about the circumstances, the situation here.
39:37I want to get your opinion on the back side.
39:38And Marco Rubio will serve as interim National Security Advisor.
39:43Henry Kissinger held both roles back in the 70s.
39:46But looking at history, is something like this really sustainable?
39:49We know it's interim, but what will happen in the meantime?
39:52I don't think it is sustainable because the Secretary of State is the channel between the 8 billion people in the world and the U.S. government.
40:01And the National Security Advisor is a channel between the U.S. government and the president.
40:05And I think there's just too much information to keep track of every day.
40:10These are both 70- or 80-hour-a-week jobs.
40:13And to keep all the information straight to have people who work for you know what the boss wants becomes tremendously difficult.
40:21And I think while the president may want Marco Rubio to execute, it's going to be hard to just keep track and keep on top of all the information that's coming his way.
40:32First of all, I just kind of want your opinion on whether you think that Mike Waltz was doing a good job or not or why he may have been reassigned.
40:43Because no matter what, 100 days is pretty short at the beginning of administration to leave if for no reason here.
40:50But let me ask you that part first.
40:51What do you think about the job Mike Waltz did?
40:54Well, the signal gate is the whole thing that just flushed it.
40:59Mike Waltz, I think the idea that he stepped up and said, I take responsibility.
41:03I was sitting there going, what a great guy.
41:06He's one of the few people that stepped up and says, it's my fault.
41:08Okay, that's tremendous to him.
41:10The idea of moving him to the United Nations is one of those things to get more of a, I think, of that intimate connection to Trump.
41:16That Trump felt like that was a liability in the current situation because of what happened.
41:20So going to the U.N., that's great.
41:22I think he's a good guy for that.
41:24But back to the signal thing, you know, that was a huge mess up.
41:27I mean, one of the things was, why did he have them in his contacts list?
41:30Because that is one of the things Trump is always concerned about and doesn't like those reporters.
41:34So why did he have it?
41:36But at the same time, everybody that was on that signal check is what?
41:39They're all responsible for screwing up.
41:41And that's something we know and yourself, but in the military, you don't use those type of forums to communicate military and operational parameters in a conflict.
41:51I mean, that's just ridiculous.
41:53So that's a mess up.
41:54Glad he took ownership of it.
41:56Going to the U.N., I think, is better.
41:58But, again, that's what I think of Mike Wallace.
42:00Good guy otherwise, you know.
42:02And what about Rubio?
42:03Because, I mean, I think that one of the things from that soundbite there rang the most true to me is that the National Security Advisor and the Secretary of State are like 70, 80-hour-a-week jobs.
42:15So how is one guy for any amount of time going to do an adequate job on both of those?
42:20Because it seems to me like there would have been other people that could have done the interim National Security Advisor when the Secretary of State is dealing with issues like the Iran situation, obviously stuff with China, the Russia war, et cetera.
42:32Isn't that too much on the plate of one guy?
42:35Yeah, it is.
42:36I mean, if you're saying for interim, I think that that's doable.
42:39But, you know, as the gentleman stated, it's not sustainable.
42:41I mean, the idea of interim, he's got the direct ear of the president, of everything he's doing around the world.
42:46And they do make the link to Kissinger.
42:48But let's think about that.
42:49Back when Kissinger was in, we were in the Cold War, so it was mainly dealing with Russia.
42:54You had the Vietnam War going on.
42:55So there's Vietnam.
42:56And China was more friendly to us than anything in the past.
42:59Now, present day, you have the issue with Ukraine and Russia, Russia in general, the trade and growing Indo-Pacific problem with China.
43:07You've got Israel and Gaza.
43:08You now have the Pakistani and Indian fighting in the casualty region at an incredible level.
43:13There's a lot more to deal with, and that's why it's not going to be sustainable.
43:17So he's in one position or another.
43:19He should probably stay in state because that's a requirement for a confirmation from Senate.
43:23If he put a new guy or gal in there, it's going to be problematic.
43:26But to do both in a sustained way, not plausible.
43:29So let me ask you a last question here.
43:33There's a number of people that have been floated in the media, so who knows how accurate the fact that any of them are or are not being considered to put in that position.
43:43But what categorically would you say should be the qualifications of the person?
43:49Who should Trump find to be the next national security advisor categorically?
43:53Yeah, I think the idea of somebody that has that diplomatic but also that military experience so you understand is that diplomacy fails.
44:01What's the nitty-gritty rawness of what combat is?
44:04So you have that person that has that balance to understand why you don't want to go to war.
44:07That's the kind of person, but the integrity, ethics, all that has to be there.
44:12You know, Wyckoff has been floated.
44:14I don't like the idea that Wyckoff likes meeting Putin one-on-one.
44:17There's certain things that I just feel like he's more of a business guy, so there's a lot of other names that are thrown up there.
44:22But as far as, you know, that integrity, ethic, being able to stand up for what you do that's right or wrong, you know, leadership 101.
44:28But I really do like a person that has a balance, again, to repeat myself, but diplomacy and military experience is to understand why diplomacy is important and, unfortunately, what the damage is when diplomacy fails and you have to go to conflict.
44:40That, to me, is the right balance.
44:41But who it is, I'm not sure who would be the best person for it right now.
44:45Do you have any personal, like, this guy would be good if they would consider it, even decide from whether Trump's thinking that?
44:53Man, that's a tough one with everything that's going on.
44:55Well, I'll tell you, I know it won't be Hexeth.
45:00Again, you know, he's a great person, but anyways, I'll hold mine on that.
45:06But I don't think it would be him.
45:08But, man, I really don't have names to pop up.
45:11I mean, there's so many people out there that would be beneficial to it.
45:15I just know people I wouldn't put in there versus who I would put in there.
45:19So, man, I wish I could, you know, play some bets on this, but I don't know where I put my money on it.
45:24Yeah, I've seen a lot of the names that are floating around.
45:28Whitcoff was one of them, of course.
45:29But there's not a lot that really I hear that go, oh, yeah, that'd be a great guy so far.
45:34So I hope there's other candidates to emerge because I'm right in line with you there about the need for diplomatic and military experience and knowledge.
45:43It's got to be somebody who's got also the courage to tell the president, yeah, that's not going to work when it's not going to work.
45:49Instead of just, you know, bowing the knee, that's not helpful.
45:53So, but you can point that you got a good point on that.
45:56I mean, the thing that didn't mean to interrupt, but, you know, when we saw Hex Seth and everything like that, and again, outside of the politics is, you know, Hex Seth is made for President Trump to be able to give him the secretary of defense.
46:06And I'm not making judgment about that.
46:07But the thing that I think you said, what kind of person, the kind of person that can say, no, that's wrong, President Trump, and hopefully he's going to respect that.
46:16So it's not just going along and not being a yes man or yes woman.
46:20I think that's the other serious category of a qualification that needs to put in there.
46:24So I'm sorry to interrupt, but I thought that was also important as we were talking about it here.
46:28Yeah, I totally agree with you.
46:30Well, listen, I really appreciate you coming on today, and I hope we can have you back real soon.
46:34We've really enjoyed this.
46:35So thanks for being on the show today.
46:36Hey, thank you.
46:37And honestly, glad for once to be able to discuss all these things about Ukraine from the very beginning to present day.
46:44So I appreciate the time, and I hope people can see the real spectrum and breadth of this conflict.
46:49It's much more complex than people think.
46:51Well, it is.
46:51And that's one of the reasons we have this show, because I used to be going on stuff.
46:56I saw you on Fox.
46:57I was on Fox a lot and some of these other networks.
46:59And you have like three minutes to talk about something and like 45 seconds to actually say, and you can't even come close to talking.
47:06So, yeah, that's why we have this channel, and we're glad to have you on for the same reason.
47:10Yeah, I appreciate it, because I think of all the things I could have said or wanted to say afterwards, I completely agree.
47:14And again, thank you for the invitation, and I appreciate it, and I hope your listeners really get a lot out of this.
47:20You bet.
47:20Thanks a lot, and thank you guys, too.
47:22Be sure to like and subscribe if you haven't done that on the way out.
47:24We really appreciate it.
47:26Also, to let you know, we're at 3.30 this afternoon.
47:28We're going to come back with one other thing and one other show.
47:31We're going to bring you an update on some things going on with the, let's hope, its potential war with Iran.
47:37We need to avoid that at all costs, but there's been some developments there, and I want to bring you up to date on those this afternoon at 3.30 p.m.
47:43Thanks, and we'll see you then.