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00:00a new week begins in major league baseball live right here on this monday morning on the early
00:05line on sports grid what a pleasure it is each and every day to be joined by the host of pro
00:09baseball today down here right side so we can get you the most accurate handicaps and give you some
00:15of those best bets around the diamond in mlb drs two very strong starts in the national league now
00:21two teams atop two of the three divisions in the nl in the national league central the chicago cubs
00:27a very successful weekend in southern california beating the dodgers and winning their final two
00:33games of the set at chavez ravine now they head just a little bit more south to san diego where
00:39the padres have been unbeatable this year the padres are a perfect 10 and 0 at home in san diego the
00:46padres are 13 and 3 this season best record in mlb and swept and shut out the colorado rockies in a
00:54three game set this weekend as well tonight drs in petco park the padres a minus 158 favorite against
01:03the cubbies with a total of seven and a half to keep it perfect at home will the padres remain
01:11unbeaten in san diego might chicago continue its great great west coast trip yeah pretty good both
01:18these teams coming in pretty good form here particularly at the plate as you had a couple
01:21days ago you had a 16 spot there for the chicago cubs then you see that series against the
01:25colorado rockies where i guess if they scored three total runs they probably would have still
01:29swept the rockies at that point because the rockies didn't score at all jameson tyone on the mound 71
01:33batters he's faced so far in this early season a 258 iso and a weighted on base percentage of 359
01:39if we take a look at some of those numbers through 16.1 innings pitched he's got an era bet of 6.06
01:44an expected era of 5.31 so not much difference there but he does have a lower exit but 4.03 so
01:51maybe getting a little bit unlucky to the batters that he's facing if we look at that padres lineup
01:56today there's not a lot to love there are high weighted on base percentages here against right
02:00handed pitchers so far this season for tatis machado sheets and bogarts the rest of the lineup
02:05not so good but let's flip it over to the other side and take a look at dylan sees and you might be
02:10saying right now like hey you know what this is the time to get dylan sees 66 batters on the season
02:14he's faced he actually has a low iso and a weighted on base percentage that is decent at 339 but taking
02:19a look at his statistics through 14 and two-thirds innings pitched have a close to an eight era but
02:25it's expected era ben is actually 3.65 just about in half and his exit is 3.33 so a lot of people that
02:32are new to handicapping you just take a look at team saying boy i just look at era and sees isn't
02:37that good therefore take the cubs here he's getting a little bit unlucky at this point because those k
02:41numbers are still high which includes 32 the lefties and 27 overall you look at the lineup coming
02:47into today for the cubs some opportunities kyle tucker's been fantastic michael bush as well and
02:52also miguel maya the catcher against right into pitching but the rest of that lineup doesn't look
02:56great so you might look and say boy these two pitchers might be able to get hit seven and a half
03:00no that's seven and a half actually makes sense i look more towards the under in this game and give
03:05the benefit of the doubt to the padres being the home team and also cease those numbers a little bit
03:10smoke in mirrors right now he probably should be less than that hoping for a bounce back for a guy
03:15that has a seven nine eight era to begin gave up nine earned of the athletics in his most recent start
03:21of course to end out last regular season dylan cease was phenomenal through a no-no for san diego
03:27in late july was really good at the end of the year then got roughed up by the dodgers to start off
03:33the postseason but you expect a lot better than a pitcher who has a near eight era elsewhere in the
03:39national league west the team with the second best mark not even the dodgers it's the san francisco
03:44giants in 11 and 4 start this year for sf on the road this week to start against the philadelphia
03:50phillies who donnie also made a statement against the dodgers taking two of three against la last
03:55weekend and then in the week since philadelphia has dropped its last two series against atlanta and st
04:02louis this weekend basically a money line pick them today inside the bank who gets the win
04:07it looks so cheap and you should be taking the philadelphia phillies but they're in a bad way
04:11right now particularly at the plate a lot of guys just automatic outs alec bohm down in that lineup
04:15brandon marsh just not giving them anything the power hasn't surged here yet for bryce harper in
04:20the top of that lineup we'll see what happens today but the one thing we know is taiwan walker was
04:24terrible last year much better this year if we're looking at some of the statistics here for taiwan
04:28walker the issue is going to be right era been through 10 innings or 10 and two thirds is a zero
04:34his xfip number however is a 4.34 so he's due maybe to get hit and also taking a look at that
04:39giants lineup which yesterday on pro baseball today was my dog of the day down early ended up winning
04:44that game late which was great they talking about the giants sensational numbers against right-handed
04:49pitching now you flip it over to the other side i haven't heard this guy's name on area landon
04:53ralp i'm going to assume it is 10 innings pitched his expected era on the season ben 211 his xfip 309
04:59very manageable and a fifth number of 1.80 this looks like a night that you probably would run
05:04lean towards the san francisco giants playing better baseball right now and i'm not so sure they don't
05:08have the better pitcher on the mound and that's crazy thinking about a guy that hasn't given up an
05:12earned run yet this season when we're talking about taiwan walker we'll continue going around all of
05:17mlb and the nba postseason prop perspective tom beckia a really good matchup in san diego really good
05:25regular uh really good weekend i should say in southern california for the cubs taking two of
05:30three in la against the dodgers divisional leaders in the national league central chicago 11 and 7
05:37divisional leaders and the best record in mlb that would be the san diego padres 13 and 3 in a perfect
05:4510 and 0 at home in san diego as we look at the numbers today the padres a home favorite to make that
05:52a perfect 11 and 0 and they're sending out dylan cease to the bump it's been a struggle so far for
05:58cease in his opening three starts this year for the padres how do you see start number four going
06:02tonight against the cubbies i see going good but not great so ultimately i want to approach that with
06:09under six and a half strikeouts for cease it's sitting at minus 106 i've been on the record on a
06:13baseball preview show saying that i believe dylan cease could lead the league in strikeouts i really do
06:17he has that potential but right now like as something that has rostered dylan cease on my
06:21dynasty team for years i understand the ups and downs that cease can have he's up to a 27 strikeout
06:27rate this year his walk rate is elevated at 9.1 this year compared to 8.5 last year he's getting
06:32hit around and he has a 390 babbit which is batting average balls in play he's also allowing
06:3611.9 barrel rate of course only over three starts that was an 8.5 barrel rate last year so he's struggling
06:42a little bit right now and the cubs are a team that can kind of give him fits they have a 10.9 walk rate
06:46that's the sixth best in the league they also don't strike out it's 20.5 versus right he's the 12th
06:51lowest they have a 177 iso eighth highest and a 125 wrc plus the sixth best like the cubs do the
06:57things that c struggles with so he may have five or six strikeouts he may be able to limit them
07:01in terms of the runs but he won't be piling up the strikeouts
07:04vecky oa 10 game slate on this monday in mlb our first game to start in pittsburgh
07:10paul skeins day number 27 skeins in his most recent start gave up five earned the most he
07:18has allowed in his major league baseball career how does he respond today against the nationals
07:22i think he piles up the strikeouts i saw a strikeout prop sitting at six and a half i think it was
07:27minus 164 in the over somewhere around there i think he gets there i just don't look for line
07:31right so that's what it comes down to like he's obviously the potential is there the match was
07:34there but don't bet the minus 164 the buckos might only be favored when skeins is on the bump
07:41they're 5 and 11 so far this season tom vecchio as always we appreciate the time thank you for it
07:48here on this monday on the early line on sports grid plenty more around major league baseball
07:54from the wonderful mind of donnie right side up next 10 game slate and plenty to preview with one
07:59of the hosts of pro baseball today that would be donnie right side drs right before the
08:04break we asked tv tom vecchio a question about paul skeins after his worst start at least based on
08:10amount of earned run earned runs given up last tuesday five of them for skeins he is on the bump
08:17again today for the pirates back home in pittsburgh taken on the gnats minus 220 for the pirates to win
08:25this game on the money line what do you think we get out of skeins on skeins day 27 in the history of
08:32major league baseball yeah and that's let me down a little bit yesterday four and a half and plus
08:36plus 100 number for the team total they got the four runs you should have 10 runs in that game but
08:40it's the nationals that you bet so buy your beware sometimes let's understand this we're early in the
08:45season today i have 20 pitchers on the card that we're going to be rating and take a look at this
08:51number one on the card with x fit minus that's paul skeins at 58 baseline is 100 so he's below he's at
08:5758 unbelievable brad lord a 133 ben the exact opposite he's the worst pitcher on the card based
09:03on x fit minus but here's also the analysis that we love paul skeins era 3.44 you take a look at
09:09brad lord's era 1.80 so something has to give today if you're trusting the analytics on this early
09:14season you figure it's brad lord which is good because most people look at the same like minus 220
09:19that's really high schemes just got beat up the pirates can't hit i get you here but if there's
09:23one guy that they're supposed to hit early in the season it's probably going to be brad lord you take
09:27a look at the game time temperatures 65 degrees some rain in the forecast but a wind blowing out
09:31lightly to eight miles per hour in left field that's always going to help the lineup itself doesn't
09:36ensure a lot of active at bats for the pirates but again you're trusting they're not going up
09:41against the dominant starting pitchers on the road and maybe you should get to them if we take a look at
09:44schemes on the opposite side you do have some good statistics here from that washington
09:48nationals lineup but good luck with this like you can look at skeins last year he was fantastic and
09:53i just told you the era is 3.44 a lot of pitchers would love that his x fit number is 2.25 elite
09:59his e is x fit minus of 58 that is absolutely elite so when you take a look at his statistics this year
10:05going up against analytically iso 060 against weighted on base percentage 203 against k rate combined
10:12about 29 he should mow down this lineup so if they do deserve to be a heavy favorite maybe today is the
10:18day but also if you expect them to win that it might be two to one three to one but i gotta tell
10:22you yeah a sneaky team total that's not based on the actual numbers for the pirates but based on what
10:28the anticipation of the pitcher coming to town is maybe the pirates team total might not be bad
10:32because what do you want to do ben you want to get that number let's just say a four ish or do you
10:36want to say i want to lay 220 when the four ish number is like a minus 110 see where i'm going
10:41six yeah i do six and a half to k prop four schemes in all three starts this year at least
10:47six strikeouts if you want to bet the over you got to pay for it it's minus 146 playoff rematch
10:53between the royals and the yankees today up in the bronx cookie carrasco gets the start for the
10:58pinstripes on the other side seth lugo for kc total nine drs that should be an indication that
11:05we're seeing much better weather at least early this week here in the greater eastern seaboard
11:10i had a friend that went to the game on saturday when it was 35 degrees in new york city with a real
11:16feel of 24 outside windy rainy delayed start i wouldn't want to be inside yankee stadium today
11:23though a little bit of a different story the yanks a home favorite as well what do you like
11:27yeah you're looking at this too with carrasco right in the hairs the exit minus number is 106 which
11:32isn't bad ben but look at that era 7.71 is era minus number is a 198 again the baseline is 100
11:39so buyer beware and that's why the yankees are so cheap today going up against it the one thing we do
11:44always like though is that yankees lineup they can really hit outside of let's just say you know
11:49oswaldo cabrera at this point and paul goldschmidt against righties and also in fact cody bellinger
11:54has not hit righties all that well everybody else is producing i love ben rice in that leadoff spot
11:59here followed by aaron judge to knock him in you got volpe has had some good at bats austin wells
12:03and jason dominguez the young player they're looking to have a pretty good season here also
12:07in the mix seth lugo is one of those crafty pitchers i think he puts over his head last year
12:11with the royals last year 880 batters he faced ben a 124 iso and a weighted on base percentage of 281
12:18this year very good still against left-handed batters but struggling just a little bit against
12:23the righties if we flip it over to kansas city side here going up against carrasco i just thought
12:27carrasco's been bad last year he was bad this year opened out bad but here's the interest sometimes
12:32it does take a lineup to sort of wake up at some point michael garcia decent statistics against
12:37right-handed batters bobby witt averaged this year when he was sensational last year then he
12:42passed quentino low weighted on base percentage but a high iso but catch this salvador perez michael
12:46massey cavin vigio hunder renfro mj melendez and kyle isbell all horrendous iso and weighted on
12:53base percentages going up against so maybe one of these games we're taking a look at just some
12:57player hit props that you might want to dip into because both of these pitches i think can get
13:01knocked around today and the yankees some people just wait cheap price on the yanks at home buyer
13:06beware on that with what carrasco is showing us the royals off to an eight and eight start so far this
13:12year the yanks just a game above 500 at eight and seven top team in the american league central that's the
13:19detroit tigers and the reigning al cy young winner in tarik scoobal on the mound today for detroit on
13:25the road in milwaukee against the brew crew detroit as you might expect with scoobal getting the start
13:31is a slight road favorite on that money line what is your expectation drs this afternoon or this evening
13:37i should say in milwaukee yeah take a look at anderson the pitcher on the mound he's got a 2.84 era
13:42which you like again limited innings on the season but a 125 x fit minus any x fit hovering around a
13:48five you look at the lineup today however you say whoo where are these runs going to come from from
13:53that detroit tigers lineup i do like spencer torkelson if looking for maybe a home run shot
13:57today he's your guy also if you're looking for an extra base hit he's your guy why 52 degrees which
14:02isn't great but 17 mile an hour winds here blowing out to left field now this is interesting because
14:07it's milwaukee summer temperatures maybe 52 degrees where the windows might be open or maybe the roof
14:13might be open to help you out just keep an eye on that the reason i bring that up is ben some people
14:17look at them like oh that's great the wind's blowing what the dome is closed who cares where
14:21the hell the wind's blowing at this point here but torkelson for me still makes a lot of sense and
14:24then if you're just looking for performances that you could dominate with tarik scoobal has struggled
14:29this year with right-handed batters but check this out ben milwaukee's lineup outside of jackson
14:33churio against lefties disastrous numbers and that includes yelich and contraris and hoskins and
14:39fralick and ortiz so today i do look for a bounce back spot for detroit but if i want to bet just a
14:44single player it's torkelson in the middle of that tigers lineup come on spence the liver a couple of
14:50good pitching matchups on the card from revoldez for the astros on the road in st louis the cards
14:56will send out sunny gray the dodgers are a minus 335 favorite at home against the rockies a good team
15:03to bounce back four after dropping their last three series after the eight and oh start