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00:00We've got Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phils against Robbie Ray and SF, minus 146 in favor of Philadelphia.
00:07Total stands at 7.5. What's the play in Philly?
00:11Yeah, trusting Aaron Nola in this spot tonight might be a little bit of a danger zone.
00:15Why? You take a look at him on the season through his 16 and two-thirds innings pitch,
00:18about a 550 ERA, not very good, but his XFIP is much lower at 3.63.
00:25You take a look at that San Francisco lineup today, as it looks,
00:28Willie Adamas and Patrick Bailey, only ones that are underperforming against right-handed pitching.
00:33Everybody else has really good numbers, and that should help.
00:36Now, the old wild card of this one is going to be Robbie Ray,
00:39because you look at his statistics, he's 15 and a third innings pitched.
00:42He's got a low ERA at 2.93, but an XFIP of 5.44. Why? Because he's pretty wild.
00:47He walks a lot of batters. He does have some strikeout numbers against left-handed batters,
00:51but against righties, hasn't done all that well.
00:53However, you take a look at Schwarber with great numbers against lefties, that neutralizes.
00:57Because Castellanos, the only positive batter against left-handed pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies
01:01in that lineup today, hate to do it.
01:04Like, the game went over yesterday, and San Francisco's got a pretty good lineup looking today.
01:07I think the Phillies do win, because I don't think Robbie Ray is really up to the competition
01:11as he was just a few years back.
01:13But at the same time, probably looking for an under again in Philadelphia
01:15with that low total of seven and a half.