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00:00exactly two weeks ago the full opening day of 2025 in major league baseball so in the opening
00:07two weeks of this 2025 campaign what has mark zinno seen well let's go full big picture and
00:13look at those world series odds the dodgers still remain a drastically short favorite at a plus 240
00:19price the new york yankees have seen their price get a little bit better by about a dollar and a
00:24half at plus 750 philadelphia 11 to 1 the new york mets 11 to 1 as we might expect but zinno there
00:31was actually a national league team ahead of both the phils and the amazons that would be the team
00:37where you reside in atlanta the braves off to a 2 and 9 start now you are a yankees fan but let's start
00:45with atlanta what is the issue for the braves on this 2 and 9 beginning to 2025 and how quickly can
00:52they turn things around they didn't hit the first week of the season it went to 0 and 7 oh by the
00:57way no team that has ever started 0 and 7 has made the playoffs and only two teams that started 0 and
01:027 finished above 500 so it's a it's it'll be a historic climb for the braves to get back in this
01:08thing um after giving away a week of the season to the dodgers and the padres and some people will
01:14sit there and say oh you played two of the best teams in the nl west yeah you did you're just not
01:18supposed to go 0 and 7 uh against anybody in major league baseball the sport of baseball doesn't
01:23really allow for that period when you talk about the way the game unfolds night in and night out so
01:27yeah were they a little unlucky sure but this is a braves team that has has some holes you know they
01:33came into this year guys with a ton of what ifs what if ronald acuna gets back to 40 40 what if
01:38spencer strider is healthy what if sean murphy can give you an 800 ops as a catcher again what if
01:43matt olsen returns to the 50 home run form what if this what there's a lot of what ifs and it's
01:48really hard to make all those what ifs go to the yes side as opposed to the no side and that's what
01:53the braves are dealing with right now and they've got a long way to go to get out of this thing but
01:57this is a team right now that no one's really pushing the panic button per se because it's a long
02:02season but you have to acknowledge it's a big hole to get out of i say it all the time you can't win
02:08the pennant in april but you can certainly lose it yeah we've been certainly using that that same
02:13terminology as well because you look at the braves they are talented but just the big guys aren't
02:16hitting the middle of that lineup austin rollins we pointed out big home run last night but the
02:20guys hit like 160 170 same thing with olsen once the weather gets a little bit warmer down there that
02:24launch pad begins acuna's back in your lineup and we'll see how that team can certainly progress but
02:29if we do focus on the top of the odds leaderboard per se the dodgers at a plus 240 price like they're
02:34mortal as well start of the season will they ever lose a game drop the series to fill it out
02:38they have dropped the series to the lowly washington nationals but that price point doesn't
02:41seem to move when you're looking at the dodgers itself like the brave started out bad their line
02:45is dropping back now granted bad for the dodgers and what the record is completely different than
02:49the braves but nobody's panicking about the dodgers because we think they'll be there same thing with
02:54the braves at 13 to 1 at the end of the season they just have to make the playoffs and they're playing
02:58good baseball they will be a formidable opponent but the focus on the dodgers mark plus 240 any value in
03:03that plus 240s you sit that ticket now i think you still got to wait it out i mean if for whatever
03:09reason they hit another losing streak and you know somehow san diego finishes the first month of the
03:14season in place and you can get something closer to three to one uh than where you are right now
03:20then you fire because to your point yes the dodgers just have to get there and they should have a big
03:25a better roster than everybody else that's there regardless whether that's division or the wild card
03:30even though the path may be a little bit more difficult um i don't know if that's the case for
03:34the braves or or other teams but for the dodgers yeah as long as they get there they should be fine
03:39again i'm still with the mets you know as far as my value where they are give me one soto in the
03:45postseason i think they're good enough uh their pitching needs to get a little bit better the
03:48mets need to come around but for the most part you know this is a team right now that uh will lay low
03:54for the first month or two and then i think you'll see the mets as the summer gets here
03:57start to look very much a world series contender and the dodgers price has gotten shorter since
04:03the start of their season after they swept the cubs in that two game tokyo set around a plus 280 plus
04:09290 price earlier in the offseason ridiculously short then even shorter now all right zeno final minute
04:15on your new york yankees snapping a three game slide and avoiding a sweep yesterday in the motor city
04:21against jack flaherty and the detroit tigers max reed and pinstripes has looked really really good
04:27so far this year what is your assessment in the opening two weeks on the yanks i mean look right
04:35now it's uh it's it's something that we can look at and go if aaron judge keeps hitting home runs
04:40uh and max reed is pitching the way they are they they should have enough to be near the top of the
04:46division i mean it's good to see paul goldschmidt batting a lofty 383 and and you know as an
04:51ops around 940 like that is what is important if they get complimentary additions from goldschmidt
04:57bellinger when he's not puking up chicken wings uh and whoever else they can get Clark's rotation
05:03then they should be good uh as far as it is but it's about depth they have to judge and and max
05:09free you know it's question marks best chicken wings in atlanta where ellenger oh magic city magic
05:16city yeah yeah just for the way power's free next around major league baseball on this thursday
05:23here we go and we start with a series that donnie is playing great attention to his philadelphia
05:31phillies on the road in atlanta rubber match the braves won the first game in a much more high scoring
05:37tilt than we expected with zach wheeler and chris sale getting the start atlanta victorious
05:42seven to five last night courtesy of a trade turner home run his first of the year in the ninth inning
05:48in a key and crucial spot the phils respond evening up the set through the first two games game number
05:55three tonight atlanta a slight favorite at home spencer schwellenbach off to a great start this year for
06:01the braves leads atlanta out there is a minus 126 favorite jesus lazardo on the other side for
06:08philadelphia total seven and a half the rs who wins the rubber match who wins the series yeah it's
06:13gonna be a close one it is and you see the favorite there for the braves let me just take a look because
06:17i think we had some different numbers earlier today okay so minus 124 overnight sits now at minus 126
06:22this was as high as minus 130 to minus 140 a little bit earlier this morning because the buyback coming
06:27on the phillies because jesus lazardo has been really good in his first couple starts here through
06:31around 50 or so batters on the season schwellenbach is a strikeout guy as well so you look at the total
06:36itself opened up at eight dropped to seven and a half i do agree with that these teams will have
06:40the opportunities to score runs like they did last night but the opportunities weren't cashed in with
06:45actual runs disappointing me in the first five innings needed a couple runs they stranded 14
06:50combined batters but if we're being optimistic about this game the phillies lineup is much better
06:54than the atlanta braves outside of trey turner and alec bohm who haven't hit right-handed pitching all
06:59that well the rest of the lineup has done extremely well it also includes a lineup that typically has a lot
07:04of strikeouts in it have done very well against right-handed pitchers and not striking out that'll
07:08be key put the ball in play as opposed to striking out with schwellenbach making those positive outs
07:13as opposed to not moving the runners along could be the key but again hayes blues excuse me lazardo
07:17comes over to the phillies sort of a reclamation project in major league baseball coming into the
07:22big leagues he had high expectations is he now reaching them well granted only two starts in 46
07:26batters we'll find out but here's the key the braves lineup just isn't very good against left-handed
07:31pitching 0-91-0-0-0-0-0 and a couple guys there with some green numbers that's the iso power numbers
07:38versus lefties i give the advantage to the phillies 67 degrees warmer than it was yesterday
07:43four mile an hour winds blowing out the left field i think the phillies can take down the braves because
07:47they're not playing good baseball but i do look towards the under seven and a half i'm not so sure
07:51ben we get eight runs in this game with these two pitchers we've actually seen a decent amount of
07:56offense as donnie's point in this series at least a decent amount of traffic on those base pass to
08:02try to take advantage of we'll see how it pays off today in game number three of our six game mlb slate
08:09on this thursday that one in atlanta drs the only one that starts in the evening hours everything else
08:15day baseball afternoon baseball that includes at fenway park where the red sox are hoping to avoid
08:22a four game series sweep at home against divisional foe in the toronto blue jays the red sox have been
08:29quite streaky they won their opening game of the year against the rangers then lost their next four
08:33then won their next five in a row and now have lost the opening three of this set against toronto
08:39boston an ever so slight favorite with walker bueller on the bump today a total of nine against
08:45chris passett and the blue jays will boston avoid the four game sweep at home 48 degrees and also
08:52you hear walker bueller's and i'm like oh let's get excited last year 407 batters he wasn't very
08:56good a 200 a 201 iso power number against and awaited on base percentage of 358 translate that
09:02into this season only 44 batters he's faced but we don't see much improvement ben based off of last
09:06year 275 iso and awaited on base percentage of 435 but he's a right-handed pitcher this season the
09:12toronto blue jays haven't hit right-handed pitchers all that well andres jimenez in the middle of that
09:16lineup 39 at bats for a 344 iso power number that's really good look at the rest of this lineup
09:22ben 100 053 0 133 0 33 0 38 0 and 0 83 so if walker bueller is going to get right maybe this is the
09:31lineup to do it against and also from a boston perspective they've had had some decent offense
09:35here bassett's a decent pitcher last year struggled a bit with lefties this year struggling a little bit
09:39again with lefties a lot of lefties in that lineup duran devers casas abreu as well as sable so i'm
09:46looking forward to maybe a boston red sox possible team total but i'm not in love with them saying
09:51donny why don't you just take the red sox if you like that lineup i just told you i'm not all that
09:55in love with walker bueller the way he's been pitching so far this season so maybe looking more
09:58offense in this game nine takes ten to get the total it could happen but maybe a boston red sox team
10:03total with some of those lefties or rbi props from those guys might make more sense you know as the
10:08socks in their weekend set against the cardinals scored 36 total runs they've got four so far combined
10:14in the first three games against the blue jays quickly here royals twins ending of a four game
10:19set in kc where the royals have taken two of the first three who wins today by the way last year
10:25over decent statistics this year 36 batters it's red all over the place so just looking at that as an
10:32early season handicap with a wind blowing 80 miles an hour crosswind give me the royals today let's go
10:38live right here on this thursday on the early line on sports grid we now get the prop perspective
10:47from the man that is the jack of all trades in the home run prop king that is tv tom vecchio of
10:53sports grid bright and early with us on this thursday morning tom as always we appreciate the
10:58time thank you for being here yeah thanks for having me we have an awesome day like it's not a massive day
11:04of baseball but we have three different sports in action plus the masters getting started i'm not
11:09here for any masters but let's get to it wow scotty schaeffler the reigning champ by the way on the
11:16course right now at augusta beginning his title defense a par on number one teeing off as we speak
11:23on the par five hole number two vecchio what you were great at though that's the home run props and
11:29before the year we had a bet on vladimir guerrero jr and what was supposed to be a prove it pay me
11:35big money contract season well the blue jays did pay him already and vladdy is still yet to hit one
11:41over the wall as we look at the home run leaders in 2025 and their associated price to be the home
11:48run leader when all is said and done of course when aaron judge leads the bigs alongside tyler
11:53soderstrom for the most home runs so far with six thingers he's going to be an odds-on favorite at
11:58minus 165 but when you have judge in a minus money manner vecchio does that allow some value
12:05elsewhere along the board in the first two weeks of this mlb season it does you know shout out to
12:11soderstrom he's on my fantasy team this year although i'm not going to be betting on him to win
12:15the you know to lead the league in home runs i think the answer at least on that that list would
12:19be kyle schwarber right donnie's guy where we're getting him at a really good price that's what it
12:23comes down to and you know maybe judge grabs a few more and schwarber falls behind you get judge
12:28you get schwarber closer to 20 to 1 like we know once june rolls around like that is kyle schwarber's
12:32month and he goes through that stretch where he's like 11 home runs in the month so be price sensitive
12:37with this and i would say be willing to wait like judge is always going to be the favorite but we
12:42could get other players at an awesome spot yeah looking at a couple of those you know big bombers
12:46in there it's fun and again we're talking about cooler temperatures in most of these games where
12:50they're being played i can't wait to see some of these numbers once they start to elevate in the
12:53spring temperatures here and also also with five home runs you see tommy edmund i mean that guy seems
12:58like he is a plug and play every single day in that dodgers lineup yesterday and not michael
13:03conforto just wanted to get that out here in these streets but as i digress we'll get over to the world
13:07series odds here for this season the heavy favorites the los angeles dodgers at a plus 240 price followed
13:12by the new york yankees when you look at some of these numbers tom two weeks into the season what pops
13:16out to you uh the padres like their number really hasn't moved a whole lot and they're off to a
13:22great start i know they've just been you know hit with a few injuries over the past few days
13:25barrel wins the il which is devastating to me to lead the league in hits we saw cronin worth leave
13:30the game we saw tatis leave the game so they're an awesome team but we know that the giants are also
13:35off to a great start and the dodgers are always going to be the favorite to win that division so the
13:39path for the padres is always going to be tough but they have the talent to get it done assuming that
13:44they get fully healthy obviously as the year goes on but that's a great price to get the padres out
13:48like and and they their team has shown that they are willing to make moves like they went out and
13:52got so great that it didn't work but they have that aggressiveness to make those moves yeah they
13:58certainly do vecchio and they will always add if they can and their price has gotten so much better
14:04already in the opening two weeks with the best record in the national league and a 10 and 3 mark 33 to 1
14:11before the year got started just two weeks in you see that number now on san diego