IHSG anjlok 6,12% ke level 6.076,08 di sesi I, Selasa (18/3). Tiga sektor dengan penurunan terdalam IDX-Techno -12,46%, DCII -19,99% ARB 3 hari beruntun. IDX-Basic -9,78%, BRPT -23,23%. IDX-Energy -6,24%, ADRO -3,58%. Dari sisi saham, perbankan Big Caps jadi pemberat IHSG, BBCA -3,20%, BBRI -3,39%, BMRI -2,99% dan BBNI -3,00%. Pemberat juga datang dari saham konglomerasi salah satunya saham Group Prajogo Pangestu, BREN -10,48%, CUAN -10%, TPIA -16%. Namun memasuki sesi II perdagangan, pelemahan IHSG sudah terbatas ke level 6.200-an.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment we will review the trade path throughout today where the Samkabungan state has again experienced a fairly deep correction.
00:15And we remind you again that you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 0812 at 8788.723 as shown on the screen.
00:25And today we are connected through Zoom with Mrs. Ratih Mustiqoningsi who is an amazing financial expert.
00:31We will go straight to Mrs. Ratih. Good afternoon, how are you?
00:35Hello, good afternoon, Mr. Dayan.
00:38Thank you, Mrs. Ratih, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:42Mrs. Ratih, today the Samkabungan state has again experienced a fairly deep correction.
00:49And in intraday today, it has weakened by more than 7%.
00:53The trading halt was carried out.
00:54Although after the trading halt, the correction continued up to 7%.
00:58However, the good news is that the position today, the weakness has been limited and the Samkabungan index has returned to 6200.
01:07Although the pressure is still quite deep.
01:09However, compared to the deep pressure in intraday today, the position of the Samkabungan index seems to be giving resistance.
01:16Analysis and technically, what is the position of the Samkabungan index throughout today's trading?
01:24So if we look at it, the IHSG today is quite volatile.
01:27Because earlier it was at its lowest level at around 6000.
01:31But it can still be maintained above 6000 today.
01:35Although there was a trading halt earlier, it fell above 5%.
01:39Even after the trading halt, it continued to fall at around 7%.
01:44Then after session 2, the IHSG rebounded again.
01:48Although it is still closed, it weakened.
01:51For the sentiment, we see that it is still tending to be negative.
01:55From domestic, although it can be seen from Wall Street, yesterday it was closed, rebounded.
02:01Although in terms of weekly, Wall Street also had a correction in March to February last year.
02:09We see that Hang Seng today's rebound in Asia Pacific is quite positive.
02:14Because it is indeed a positive sentiment from China that this weekend there will be a TBOC as well.
02:19Which will potentially break the GWM and also the Bunga tribe.
02:24So we see that in Asia Pacific, the index is quite positive.
02:30However, the movement of the IHSG is under the action of Profitech, which has happened since the beginning of the year.
02:36Even since then, the outflow has been quite massive, Rp26 trillion.
02:40Okay, earlier you mentioned that there is a domestic factor.
02:43When the global stock market experienced the strengthening of the United States and Asia.
02:48Can you elaborate on what domestic factors have been observed by foreign investors?
02:54So that the outflow continues significantly until today's trading?
03:00So there is indeed quite a massive outflow in our domestic stock market.
03:04Earlier, Rp26 trillion per day yesterday.
03:08Yesterday, it should still be outflow today, because the IHSG also had a trading hold.
03:13And if we look at the negative sentiment, it is related to the deflation that happened in February.
03:18We saw yesterday for the implementation of the APBN itself, the income was only 10% of the target for February.
03:26Even though there is a deficit, but the deficit is actually still reasonable.
03:29Because it should still be within the government's target of around 2%.
03:35At 2.53% of GDP.
03:39So we see that the deficit is still okay.
03:41It's just the acceptance of the country that has a potential to decrease.
03:47Because we see that the trade war is still going on.
03:50So our export is also quite disturbed.
03:53And it has an impact on our trade surplus.
03:57Okay, what is the impact of the decline in the rankings, ma'am?
04:00From several international ranking institutions in recent times?
04:06Okay, we see that there are several ranking institutions.
04:09There is Margaret Stanley.
04:11Then we also see Goldman Sachs.
04:15Which has downgraded Indonesia's rating.
04:20But if we look at the bonds, yesterday there was a fixed rating that still maintained Indonesia's rating at BBB.
04:29So if we look at this equity market, it's quite volatile.
04:35Because even from foreigners, it has downgraded our equity market.
04:40Okay, from a positive point of view.
04:42Is Indekargasamkabunga able to break the weakness of today's economic closure?
04:47Support and resistance?
04:49And the next direction in the wait for the release of Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia and Suku Bunga The Fed this weekend?
04:55Okay, this weekend we are waiting for the release of BI Red and Suku Bunga The Fed.
05:01And for IHSG, what is the projection?
05:04For the support that can be considered.
05:07This is the IHSG support level area in 2021 at level 6,000.
05:12In the psychological area, today there was a desire to break out the support level area at 6,000.
05:18But it was still maintained at level 6,000 after session 2 started.
05:23Then for the resistance area, we see that there is still a potential weakness of IHSG.
05:29Because earlier it was still a wait-and-see related to the Suku Bunga demand.
05:32So the support area is at 6,000.
05:34For the closest resistance, it is at 6,300.
05:39Okay, in the middle of the weakening of Indekargasamkabunga that happened,
05:43it seems that Samsam Big Cap from the portion of the weakness is also broken.
05:47What momentum can be used in a condition like this?
05:51The weakness of Samsam Big Cap Bank, which today became a burden,
05:55averaged weakness above 3%.
05:58What is the recommendation?
06:00Did the IHSG weakness earlier maybe?
06:02Weakened at 3.49%, already at 8,300.
06:07For the IHSG itself, it is related to the sentiment of the dividend.
06:11So if we look at the sentiment, it should be over after there is an announcement from the RPS.
06:18So for the sentiment that we are waiting for from the IHSG, it has passed.
06:22Related to the announcement from the dividend, even though it has not been decided yet.
06:27So technically, we see that there is still a weakening potential from the IHSG.
06:33So it's better to buy on weakness.
06:35If you want to buy on weakness, just wait for the level of support.
06:38In the psychological area, it is at 8,200 to 8,000.
06:41That's for the IHSG.
06:43Okay, today's closing at 8,300.
06:47Let's go straight to the BBRI.
06:49Today also experienced quite a deep pressure, Ibu Rati.
06:53Earlier closed at 3.92% weakness, at 3,680.
06:57The lowest intraday was at 3,500.
06:59Succeeded in reducing today's weakness.
07:02Okay, for the BBRI.
07:04Indeed, we see technically, there is a technical rebound today.
07:09Earlier it fell quite deep, up to the lowest in the psychological area at 3,500.
07:14So the strategy is better.
07:17Because next week there is an RPS with a yield of around 4-5%.
07:21So you can consider, if you want to buy on weakness,
07:24you can wait for the level of support in the area of 3,650 to 3,600.
07:29So for the BCR, it's better to buy on weakness.
07:32Remembering that next week there is an RPS.
07:34Okay, and at the same time, it seems to answer the question of Mr. Andri from Cimahi, West Java.
07:39Who has participated in our interactive WhatsApp,
07:42asking about the BBRI prospect in the middle of the deep depression today.
07:45And again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of the audience of Idea Channel.
07:49In addition to defending the big cap, today the conglomerate shares
07:53have become a burden for the Samkabung family.
07:56From the Prayogo Pengestu Group, Saham Toto Sugiri, the ARB is still continuing.
08:00Then from Aguan Pani, today it also experienced a fairly deep correction.
08:04How do you see the position of these weaknesses?
08:08From the Prayogo Pengestu Group, it seems that the performance is also very influential in this matter.
08:12Earlier I have also mentioned that the TPIA has experienced a rebound in terms of clean losses.
08:18Analysis and recommendations from the Prayogo Pengestu Group.
08:21Maybe we go to the TPIA first. Today it was weakened by 18.42%, ma'am.
08:27So it's quite volatile.
08:30Overall, for the ME10 earnings, it can be said that only a few are positive for the full year 2024.
08:37Because especially in the second half or the second semester,
08:41we see that there is a potential to weaken our economy.
08:44So if we look at this, it is also depicted from several ME10.
08:48For the TPIA, we see that technically, the shares today have a weakness.
08:53Because earlier there was an earnings release that was below expectations.
08:56Even though from the third quarter, we have seen that there are clean losses in the TPIA.
09:02So technically, what is it like?
09:04Can we wait and see first for the Konglo shares?
09:09So we can consider waiting and see first because the weakness is quite deep.
09:13So the selling price is still high.
09:15Okay, the Konglo shares sector that is currently becoming the main player of Gatam Kampungan,
09:21more towards YNC first.
09:23We move to technology, ma'am.
09:25When DCII today again experienced an auto-reject under the main player of Gatam Kampungan,
09:30the Goto shares today actually opposed the trend.
09:33Even though it was suppressed earlier, it experienced a significant direction reversal.
09:37Strengthened by 5%, closed at level 83.
09:41Analysis and recommendations for Goto?
09:44For the technology shares, indeed the last few days have burdened the movement of ISG.
09:50Since the end of last week.
09:53One of them was DCII, which dropped or ARB in 3 days.
09:58If we look at Goto shares, today rebounded 3.80%.
10:03Actually, this is just a rebound technique.
10:06It can be considered for still YNC.
10:10Consider the support area in Area 78 to Area 80.
10:14For the resistance area at 86.
10:17So it can be considered for YNC, for Goto shares.
10:21Okay, in the short and medium term, where will it go for Goto?
10:27For Goto, technically it's still sideways.
10:30But the strategy can be considered.
10:33If you want to buy, you can buy with a portion,
10:37maybe the money management can also be considered.
10:39So with the support area at 80 to 78.
10:43If there is a breakout, the position can be reduced.
10:45Okay, so the risk profile is still quite high in conclusion?
10:50Yes, because the market is still quite good.
10:52Okay, from Goto, we switch to other technology stocks.
10:56There is WIFI, Tbk Digital Synergy solution.
11:01In the opposite direction, it also makes a significant impact in the second session.
11:044.41% at 1,775.
11:09Okay, for Wi-Fi stocks, what is the strategy?
11:12If we look at the technical conditions, it's already sideways.
11:16So if you already have it, you can keep the support level at 1,600.
11:20If there is a breakout at 1,600, it can be considered to reduce the position for Wi-Fi stocks.
11:25So the support level is at 1,600 to 1,550.
11:30That's for the movement of Wi-Fi stocks.
11:32Technically, in the long term, it's still an uptrend.
11:36So you can just look at the support level.
11:38Yes, some stocks that are still able to survive in the green zone,
11:41especially from some technology stocks,
11:43when the DCI stocks continue to auto-reject today.
11:46And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of IDF Channel.
11:50We will break back first.
11:52Later, we will see what other options you have in the middle of the pressure
11:56on the mining companies that are still going on.
11:58And we will be right back in a moment.