IHSG -1,96% ke 6.886,86 di sesi I hari ini, Kamis (6/2). Sektor barang baku -1,97%, TPIA -4,93%. Sektor keuangan -1,84%, BMRI -7,24%, BBRI -2,66%. Saham perbankan Big Caps melemah dalam di tengah rilis kinerja 2024 dan momok likuiditas ketat. Sektor perindustrian -1,64%, ASII -3,38%. Sektor kesehatan +0,66%, KLBF +6,61%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review the trading path throughout the day.
00:11As we informed earlier today, Indekar Gasam Kabungan has experienced a fairly deep correction and has been at level 6,800, the lowest level throughout 2025 and the lowest level in the past few months.
00:25And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812-8788-3723, as shown on the television screen later.
00:35And now we are connected via Zoom with Mrs. Liza Kamelia Suryanata, who is the Head of Research at INHA Korindo Securitas Indonesia.
00:44We will go straight to Mrs. Liza. Good afternoon, how are you?
00:48Good afternoon.
00:50Thank you, Mrs. Liza, for spending your time on IDX Channel.
00:54Today, Indekar Gasam Kabungan has experienced a fairly deep correction of more than 2%.
01:00And perhaps this is also the largest percentage of Indekar Gasam Kabungan's weakness in recent times.
01:06It seems to be getting further away from level 7,000.
01:09Your analysis, especially from a technical point of view, the deep correction that has occurred throughout today's trading.
01:15So, Mr. Ihesky, the last few days have been a combination of regional market sentiment,
01:22from the US market, where Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and then China.
01:29But then there was also a delay in Canada and Mexico.
01:36And this is how the impact of the tariff is on the policy of the Bunga Defed tribe,
01:42which seems to be getting worse this year.
01:46And then it is also combined with our macro, Indonesia,
01:51which yesterday continued to rise, the inflation rate became a deflation again.
01:57Then our GDP also slipped from the macro assumption in 2024,
02:03although it barely made it to around 5%.
02:07The company's financial report that came out, the independent bank yesterday,
02:12it turned out that the performance was less exciting.
02:16The net profit only grew by a single digit, thin.
02:20It looks like the Sharia Bank showed a much better result, it can double digit.
02:26So with all this, it finally made IHSK unable to survive
02:31at the psychological level of 7,000.
02:34Previously, I hoped that at least 6,950 could still be supported.
02:39But then today it turned out to be digital too.
02:42Finally, maybe IHSK will look for help to the lowest level last year,
02:482024, which happened in June, it was around 6,700,
02:53up to 6,500 maybe there.
02:58Overall, we are still experiencing a downward trend
03:01since reaching the peak in September,
03:07and this will continue for the time being,
03:12considering the breakthrough today.
03:15Okay, for the short term, Mrs. Liza, especially in the face of tomorrow's trade,
03:19after the weekend holidays,
03:21then investors are also waiting for the release of the latest American labor
03:25on Friday night
03:26to see the steps of the policy of the Fed in the future.
03:31And in this position, has the Federal Reserve bought it?
03:35Or is there still a big opportunity for the support you mentioned earlier at 6,700?
03:40Maybe you mean to sell it?
03:42Yes, to sell it.
03:44Okay, we've been hoping,
03:47we've been hoping for the end,
03:50at least for the banks that are already cheap,
03:53to immediately stop the decline,
03:56or at least the limited downside potential has begun to be seen.
03:59But what happened was that they couldn't afford to go up.
04:04So maybe what they are trying to do right now
04:10is to try to find solid bottoming prices.
04:14In the bottoming phase, I mean.
04:16So if it's in this bottoming phase,
04:19high volatility can still happen.
04:22Yes, but they are protected,
04:24not lower than a certain level.
04:28Well, if the IHSG,
04:31the certain level of support,
04:34I hope the number is 7,000 to 6,950.
04:37But today it's back to zero.
04:39So this makes us,
04:41well, what should we do?
04:44Let's take a little break
04:46while waiting for this volatility to subside.
04:49Okay, Mrs. Liza,
04:50today's B-CAP banks are becoming heavier.
04:53Even the intraday is weakening by more than 8%.
04:56But before we discuss in detail
04:59each of the B-CAP banks,
05:01how do you see the weakening
05:03happening in the middle of the release of the 2024 full year?
05:06And there are also some developments related to estimates.
05:09The liquidity is tight for the banks right now.
05:12That's right, the liquidity is tight
05:14and the growth of credit will be a challenging issue this year.
05:18The liquidity is tight because
05:20the trend of DPK acquisition has already decreased.
05:24Then how about the growth of credit?
05:27This year, 2025,
05:30the Indonesian government will also need a lot of funds
05:34to finance their government programs.
05:37And certainly, one way to finance it
05:42is by issuing more obligations to the Indonesian government.
05:47And then, who is expected to absorb those obligations?
05:52Especially if foreigners see Indonesia
05:57as not an interesting country for investment right now.
06:00Our rating has not reached level A,
06:05A- or A.
06:07We, the government, have done various ways to increase it.
06:12I believe one of them may be by entering BRICS,
06:15by joining BRICS.
06:17The exchange rate must also be stabilized.
06:21So, we don't seem to be affected by the volatility of USD.
06:26So, banking right now
06:35is expected to absorb government obligations
06:38which, when the DPK is already in a downward trend,
06:43it means that the portion that they should be able to spend for the people's credit,
06:48which will eventually translate into their revenue,
06:52this will also reduce the portion.
06:55It will then affect their revenue and profitability.
07:02Okay. From the fundamental side, let's go straight to the technical side.
07:05Let's go to BMRI first.
07:07The closing of the second session today.
07:09The weakness is more limited.
07:11The intraday today was weakened by 8%.
07:145100, what is your analysis and recommendation
07:17in the midst of today's deep pressure?
07:20Okay, BMRI is...
07:23Actually, the trend has been quite good since 2020.
07:28This is the rising trend.
07:30This time, it was forced to be broken with a pattern called double top.
07:36A big double top that can only be seen in the weekly chart.
07:40BMRI is now starting to jump from level 5500, its support,
07:49to 5000.
07:51Indeed, it has been achieved.
07:55And from the indicator side, it has also started to enter the oversold area.
08:01The round number itself, we hope, can be a psychological support level.
08:06I hope for BMRI, there is a potential for limited weakness.
08:10In other words, the decline has begun to be limited.
08:15But to go up again, it still needs a lot of struggle.
08:19Because 5500 will be the first door of resistance.
08:22That's it, Mr. David.
08:23Okay, it's quite wide from today's closing at 5100.
08:26What is your recommendation, Cicil Beli?
08:29Still wait and see.
08:32Indicator wise, it's already oversold.
08:37But looking at the big trend, it's a bit...
08:40If you want to take it at 5000, it looks interesting, but it's also scary.
08:45So, just a small portion if you want to be speculative.
08:49Moving on to BBRI, Mrs.
08:51Today, it is also under pressure to leave around 4000, Mrs. Liza.
08:55Yes.
08:56BBRI, there may still be one more support that becomes a barrier,
09:02which is around 3970 today.
09:09Okay, around 4000 or if it has to be 3800, we'll wait.
09:15So, there is also a limited downside potential.
09:17Hopefully, by that time, the RSI will have positive divergence.
09:21Speculative-wise.
09:22Before we close, one more question.
09:24But briefly, this is also related to the view of Samsung Banking Big Cap,
09:29both in the short and medium term.
09:31It is also related to the dividend.
09:33Buyback will also be done from some of the Banking Big Cap emits in the near future,
09:37even though it is still in the planning stage.
09:39Does this help, Mrs.
09:41the pattern of strengthening for the return of direction from Samsung Banking Big Cap?
09:45Dividend, of course, yes.
09:48Helps with positive sentiment.
09:50Then, if it's a buyback plan,
09:52the action of the buyback corporation does not necessarily increase the stock price.
09:57Because the logic of a buyback company is when the price is cheap,
10:01not when the stock price is high.
10:03So, I think the price will be like that for quite some time.
10:07Okay.
10:08Mrs. Liza, we will cut to the chase.
10:10Later, we will also try to see what Samsung Banking Big Cap is like,
10:15especially in the middle of the domestic market,
10:17if Samsung Banking Big Cap is in the current position.
10:19We will be back in a moment.