IHSG +0,29% ke 7.175,266 sesi 1 Senin (20/1). IDX Sektor Teknologi +1,65% GOTO +3,57% dan DATA +25,00% ARA. IDX Sektor Barang Baku +1,05% MDKA 2,8%. IDX Sektor Energi +0,65% PTRO +12,43%. Dari sisi saham, BMRI, BBRI dan BBNI jadi penopang terbesar IHSG di 13,5 dan 10,2 dan 4,3 indeks poin. Kondisi berbeda terjadi pada saham BBCA -2,27%
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us. In this segment, we will review how the sales of trading in the early months, where the gas price continues to strengthen, but is not consistent to maintain its position above the level of 7,200.
00:20And we will see again if you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 08.12.8788.723, as shown on the television screen and later.
00:30And now we have been in touch via Zoom with Mr. T. Herditya Ucaksana, as the Head of Retail Research at MNC Securities.
00:38We will go straight to Mr. Didit Selamarsore. How are you, sir?
00:44Hello, Mr. Didit Selamarsore. Can you unmute, Mr. Didit?
00:51Hello, Mr. Didit. Can you unmute, sir? I can't hear you in our studio.
01:03Hello, Mr. Didit. Can you hear me, sir?
01:06Hello, Selamarsore, Mr. David. I can hear you now.
01:08Yes, I can hear you now, Mr. Didit.
01:10Okay.
01:11Yes. Thank you for joining us, sir, on ADIX Channel. We have returned to the early months trading.
01:17If we flashback, the Indekarga Samkabungan movement in the last week has been moving significantly.
01:24It was suppressed in the 6,900s in the last few times, and today it has returned to the 7,200s,
01:31although it is not consistent to stay at that level.
01:34What is your analysis and review of the last week for Indekarga Samkabungan?
01:40Okay. If we look at the last week, the ISG movement still tends to strengthen,
01:44even though it is still sustained by the resistance level, which is in the 7,196s.
01:51And we also see that during the last week, it is quite interesting that there has been an inflow into the ISG of 247 billion,
02:00where if we look at it, some catalysts are enough to make the ISG quite interesting,
02:07where indeed for the Bunga Acuan Bank Indonesia tribe, it has been cut by 25 basis points from 6% to 5.75%.
02:15However, the external pressure is still quite heavy,
02:18where if we look at it, the value of the USD exchange rate is still tending to strengthen towards the Rupiah.
02:24And besides that, it also seems that the investor will also continue to shine.
02:28There will be a candidate, the elected president of the United States, Donald Trump, who seems to be starting later like that.
02:36And then there will be a cut rate from the Fed.
02:40Whether it will be a cut rate or not, we will wait until January 29.
02:45Support and resistance, sir, for the nearest and also for the medium term?
02:50Okay, for the support and resistance of the ISG itself,
02:53for the resistance, we estimate that it is in the 7,196s area, with the nearest support at 7,036s.
03:01Quite interesting, if later the ISG breaks from the resistance area,
03:05accompanied by a relatively large purchase volume,
03:09then we estimate that the ISG will test in the area of 7,200-7,300s first.
03:15That's right, David.
03:16Okay, the weakness that happened in the last few times,
03:19causing this year-to-date, the Indekargasam-Kabungan has moved to the positive zone, sir.
03:25And of course, we hope that this position will continue like that.
03:29Do you see there is still a chance for a January effect, sir?
03:33For the January effect, it has actually started a few days ago.
03:38What we feel is actually on the 20th, sorry, on January,
03:45in the middle of January yesterday, this is what we feel for the January effect itself.
03:49And later we will see if this will continue in the future.
03:53From the 15th to today's movement,
03:56the ISG is still moving positively and will tend to strengthen again
04:00if it touches or penetrates the resistance area level at 7,196s.
04:08If it breaks, it will be quite interesting,
04:107,200-7,300s will be the next strengthening area.
04:14In addition, we see that there was a net inflow of 247 billion yesterday.
04:22What is the projection for the next sentiment?
04:25The release of energy in the fourth quarter, sir.
04:27Okay, for the next sentiment, actually this is quite heavy from the external,
04:32as we know globally,
04:34where even though there is a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict itself,
04:39but we see that there is a presidential election that will be held soon,
04:44where policies will be more protective of the United States itself
04:49and will also increase import tariffs,
04:52especially from China and the rest of the world.
04:55We also see that for the release of energy in Q4 2024,
05:00we are actually waiting to see if the energy is quite good or not.
05:04However, if we look at the stock market,
05:07it still tends to be slow,
05:09where the movement in a catalyst way is not yet so,
05:13wow, in quotation marks like that.
05:15So we do respect some B-cap emitters, especially like that.
05:20Okay, today's B-cap emitter movement is quite interesting, sir.
05:23The BBCA is quite stressed today
05:26when the Bank Himbara stock is the main shareholder of Samkabungan.
05:32How do you see this position, sir?
05:35Actually, it has happened several times like that.
05:39The BBCA usually has the most limited pressure
05:43when the Bank Himbara stock is experiencing significant strength,
05:46and vice versa.
05:48What is the actual position, sir?
05:50Okay, it's true what Mr. David said.
05:53If we look at it historically,
05:55this is quite a change in quotation marks.
05:59In other words, if the BBCA is strengthened,
06:03on the contrary, the Bank Himbara's emitter tends to weaken.
06:07And vice versa, if in this case,
06:10if we look at it in the end,
06:12three of the Bank Himbara's B-cap emitters are strengthened,
06:16where the selling pressure tends to be in the BBCA itself.
06:20However, we see that sectorally,
06:22for IDX Financial itself,
06:24the movement is still tending to uptrend
06:26and is still dominated by the volume of purchases.
06:29If I look at it from the technical side,
06:31if it is able to break from IDX Financial at IDR 1,422,
06:36then we estimate that there is still a chance
06:38to strengthen at least to the area of IDR 1,435 to IDR 1,444 first.
06:45So, it can be strengthened,
06:47and it tends to be selective for trading partners,
06:49especially besides B-caps,
06:51the second layer can also be strengthened.
06:53That's it, Mr. David.
06:54Okay, let's go to the BBCA first, sir.
06:56Today, it weakened quite deeply at 2.53%,
06:59and was traded again at the level of IDR 9,600, sir,
07:05for the BBCA.
07:06Analysis and recommendations for the BBCA
07:08in the midst of the deep weakness that occurred today.
07:10Okay, if we look at it,
07:12the movement is still tending to be corrected for the BBCA itself,
07:15and the selling pressure today is also quite large for the BBCA movement.
07:19We see for the BBCA movement itself,
07:22the level of support is expected to be noticed in the area of IDR 9,525.
07:27If the BBCA is still able to be above that area,
07:30then we estimate that the BBCA has a chance again
07:33to break through the area of resistance that is not yet able to be penetrated,
07:36namely at IDR 9,925.
07:38If it is able to break from IDR 9,925,
07:40then we estimate that the next direction of the BBCA will test
07:44in the area of IDR 9,975 to IDR 10,075.
07:48However, the worst case, if it breaks from the support area,
07:51then it can be used for the correction area,
07:54which is at IDR 9,450 to IDR 9,325 first.
07:59That's right, David.
08:00Okay, the BBCA closed at IDR 9,625,
08:02weakened quite deeply at 2.78%,
08:05and again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of the IDR channel.
08:09For the Himbara Big Cap Banking,
08:11BBRI, BMRI, and BBNI,
08:14the increase is quite significant, 2.3%.
08:17From a technical position, which of these three
08:20do you recommend the most for the short and medium term?
08:24Okay, if we look at it, the pressure from these Himbara banks,
08:28BRI, BMRI, and BBNI is also quite big,
08:32some time ago,
08:33and we see that it tends to strengthen first in the short term.
08:38We see that the tendency of BBRI is quite interesting,
08:42where the movement is already strong and above the MA20.
08:46At the moment, the candle also tends to be full body,
08:49although the volume of the purchase is still relatively small.
08:53Later, if it is able to break from the resistance area,
08:56from the BBRI itself,
08:57in the area of IDR 4,220,
09:00then we can estimate that this is for the BBRI
09:02will test at the next level,
09:04i.e. at the level of IDR 4,430 to IDR 4,530.
09:09And then for the next there is BBNI,
09:12where BBNI is also quite interesting,
09:14the movement is similar to BRI,
09:16the volume of the purchase also increases,
09:19if it is able to break again from the level of IDR 4,630,
09:23then we estimate that at least BBNI will cover some gap areas,
09:27i.e. those in the area of IDR 4,720 and IDR 4,830.
09:34Okay.
09:35In the middle of the strengthening of Samsung Big Cap Banking,
09:38especially Himbara Banking, Mr. Didit,
09:40there is a tendency,
09:41at least in the last few months,
09:43the volatility is still quite high,
09:45the rotation is also quite fast,
09:47increasing significantly,
09:48then experiencing quite a deep correction,
09:50even one day after the rise of Samsung Big Cap Banking.
09:55Will the current technical position be different
09:58from the previous technical pattern,
10:01which increased significantly,
10:03then again experienced quite a deep correction,
10:05and did not last long, Mr. Didit?
10:07Yes, if we look at it,
10:08in the medium term,
10:10we still see that there will be a potential or risk
10:15for banking emittance to be re-corrected.
10:19Because we see that the tendency of ISK itself
10:22which is still tending to consolidate
10:24and is driven by several banking emittances,
10:26on the other hand,
10:27also several emittances from other sectors
10:29such as basic materials,
10:30this is also quite interesting.
10:32We see that the momentum of these banks
10:34will be relatively limited in the first place.
10:37We still see the future,
10:39there is still a potential or risk of correction
10:42from the banks' emittances.
10:44Before we close, just briefly, sir,
10:46you said earlier that there is a second line bank
10:49that can also be observed like that.
10:52Which second line bank do you recommend?
10:54Today there is a BPN experiencing an increase,
10:57or maybe there is a risk in this matter, sir?
10:59Just briefly, Mr. Didit.
11:01Okay, if we look at it,
11:02this is quite interesting in ARTO actually.
11:04ARTO, if it is able to break from 2600,
11:06the direction is 2680-2750.
11:10And next, this risk is also quite interesting
11:12if we look at it,
11:13if it is able to break from 2840,
11:15then we estimate the next direction
11:17will be in the 29-2950 area, like that.
11:20Good, Mr. Sam.
11:21Banking stocks,
11:22both from the second line and second line banks,
11:24and hopefully it can be a reference for you.
11:27Mr. Didit, we will close for now,
11:28later we will try to see,
11:29Sam, Sam, choose whatever you recommend,
11:31and we will be right back in a moment.