IHSG -0,49% dan makin jauh dari level 7.300 ke level 7.210,465 di sesi I Kamis (28/11) IDX-Energy jadi pemberat terbesar IHSG -2,72%, ADRO -24,80% sentuh Auto Reject Bawah (ARB) di hari ex dividen interim tahun buku 2024. IDX-Infra -1,01% ISAT -2,87% dan TLKM -0,74% dan IDX-Trans -0,51% BIRD -2,25%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going throughout the day and we invite you again, you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 0812.8788.723 as shown on the television screen and later.
00:23Right now, we are live on Zoom with Mr. Bahamad Wafie who is a Research Analyst at RHB Indonesia.
00:30Let's get to know each other. Mr. Wafie, good afternoon. How are you?
00:34Good afternoon, Mr. David. I'm fine, thank you.
00:37Thank you, Mr. Wafie.
00:38It was a holiday in the middle of the week, Mr. Wafie. Today, the gas industry is back on track in the red zone intraday. It even reached 7,195.
00:50What is your analysis, especially from a technical point of view, of the weakness that has occurred throughout today's trade?
00:57Yes, if we look at it technically, it's actually a fairly normal correction, the second day correction.
01:02Maybe three days ago, we tested the MA200 resistance and it was rejected.
01:09That's why after that, we saw on Tuesday, then we had a correction.
01:14After a day, then on this day, we had another correction to test the support of the GALIS-6A5.
01:21So technically, this is still a fairly normal correction.
01:25As far as I can see, the position of the IHSG is still relatively good.
01:31It still stands at the psychological level, at the level of 7,200.
01:35Even though earlier in the intraday, we saw that the IHSG was below the level of 7,200.
01:41In terms of transaction volume, I see that it is relatively quiet.
01:45The transaction value is still around 9.4 trillion, below the average daily transaction.
01:52This shows that the market players are still doing the WTNC action as it is at the moment.
02:00Is the status of the joint family still smooth, Mr. Wafi?
02:04Yes, in terms of trend, it is still smooth.
02:06However, for the short-term trend, it seems to be heading towards a rebound, testing the resistance of the bearish channel at the moment.
02:13So for the short term, there is a technical rebound, but for the medium term, it is still in the bearish channel for the IHSG.
02:22Mr. Wafi, up to the closing of trading in the first session this afternoon,
02:26overall, the joint family index in the last month is still weak at 4.75%.
02:33Based on the cycle that has happened every November, the joint family index is more tense,
02:39leaving several days of trading ahead.
02:41What is your analysis and conclusion?
02:44The joint family index throughout November this year.
02:48Actually, if we look at the position of the IHSG at the moment,
02:52in terms of decline, I think it is quite limited, with a valuation of around 13x price-to-earning ratio.
02:58Actually, the valuation of the IHSG at the moment is almost the same as the valuation of Sangkai Composite,
03:04which is also around 13x price-to-earning ratio.
03:07This shows that in terms of decline potential, it is relatively more limited for the IHSG
03:13compared to other regional exchanges such as Kuala Lumpur Composite.
03:20And if we look at the technical sphere, with the maintenance of the IHSG at around level 7200,
03:26and yesterday we saw a place to test level 7100 for the IHSG,
03:32shows that the downside potential for the IHSG seems to be quite limited at the moment.
03:39That's it.
03:40Okay, the short term for the weekend, where is the direction of the joint family index?
03:46I see that after testing the support of the MA5 today,
03:50the IHSG seems to have the potential to rebound.
03:54Especially if we look at the intraday movement of the IHSG, which is relatively limited today,
04:00the volume of transactions is also relatively low,
04:03which shows that tomorrow it is more likely to rebound
04:08to test the psychological resistance again at around 7300.
04:14Okay, Mr. Wafi, how do you see it from the sentiment side, sir?
04:19When we take a break due to the state of emergency,
04:23some important data releases seem to have been released by the United States.
04:29Inflation data, economic growth, and also FOMC result from the growth last month.
04:36When we summarize some of those sentiments,
04:39what is the impact on the joint family index?
04:43Especially the inflation data, which seems to still fluctuate in this case, Mr. Wafi,
04:49still rises by 2.3% in the future for the joint family index,
04:53and also the expectations in the next Pertemuan Telfair.
04:57Yes, actually we still expect the Fed to reduce the interest rate once again this year,
05:06at least this year.
05:08Which is likely to be followed by the BI later in December,
05:13to reduce it once again by 25 basis points.
05:17Where if we look at the assumption of the decline of the Fed and the BI,
05:22we also see that there is a potential or an urgency from the central bank,
05:28whether from the US or from Indonesia,
05:31to push and accelerate economic growth in the future.
05:36Even if there is a risk,
05:38what if it turns out that the Fed did not reduce its interest rate at the end of this year,
05:43but still sees that there is still room for the Fed to reduce its interest rate in 2025.
05:51Because if we look at the new president era,
05:55the economy needs to be stimulated to grow,
05:59and one of the tools or instruments to push economic growth is
06:04through a decrease in the interest rate of the Fed and the BI.
06:08From the sectoral point of view, Mr. Wafi,
06:10today the energy sector has become a significant burden on the joint family index,
06:14especially at the closing of session one this afternoon.
06:19In the middle of a decrease in the price of a number of commodities,
06:22then also in the middle of several corporate actions that are being carried out.
06:26We go to Adaro first, sir.
06:28Today experienced a low auto-reject at 24.80%,
06:33almost 25%,
06:35and coincidentally today is an ex-dividend,
06:38a special dividend that will be given by Adaro.
06:41What is your analysis and recommendation for Adaro?
06:44Yes, if we look at today's correction for Adaro,
06:48it's actually quite normal,
06:49because looking at the dividend yield at around 36%,
06:54yes, it is normal that the market price adjusts
06:59and immediately auto-rejects below around 25%.
07:03If we calculate it simply,
07:06it actually still leaves about 11% more decrease for Adaro tomorrow.
07:15So maybe it can be taken as a conclusion
07:19for investors who want to invest in Adaro,
07:23can wait for around 10% to 11% of today's dividend price for Adaro.
07:30Exactly at what level, Mr. Wafi?
07:33If we look at Adaro's dividend,
07:36the price position so far is around 2760.
07:44So if we look at 10%,
07:47it means around 2,500, Mr. David.
07:52Okay, the conclusion today is still at 2760,
07:55it is still recommended to enter, wait for the position at 2,500 for Adaro.
08:01Now, when outside of the dividend division,
08:05is there a positive or negative effect on the IPO of ADII for Adaro?
08:12Actually, I still see a potential rebound for this Adaro stock, Mr. David.
08:17Because of the decrease or correction that happened,
08:19if I look at it, it is more due to the dividend yield,
08:23which often happens,
08:25which we both hear the term dividend trap.
08:29The higher the dividend yield given by an MEP,
08:33the potential correction that happens when the ex-debt is more or less bigger too.
08:39And this is what happened with Adaro.
08:41Now, regarding the correction that happened,
08:44there is still a push related to ADII,
08:47where maybe some of Adaro offers PUPS,
08:51related to the IPO of ADII,
08:53and that can also be a push for investors
08:57to return to buy Adaro stocks
09:00for investors who want to get ADII stocks through the PUPS path later.
09:06Okay.
09:07Adaro is now a heavyweight in the Gassan-Kabungan index,
09:10the correction in the Motor Eject Pawad at 28.80,
09:13closed at 27.60,
09:15a good level is recommended when the pressure continues
09:18up to IDR 2,500 per share,
09:20and again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the shareholder of ADII Channel.
09:25Mr. Wafi from Adaro,
09:27let's move on to another energy,
09:29Mr. Adasaham Raja,
09:31today joined as a heavyweight,
09:33weak above 9%.
09:35Analysis for Raja, support and resistance, Mr. Wafi.
09:39Yes, if we look at the correction that happened for Raja,
09:42today is the second correction,
09:44and it seems that today's correction
09:46is directly close to the level of the bullish channel support,
09:49that's around the level of IDR 2,050
09:52up to IDR 1,850
09:56for the Raja support level area.
09:58So, if investors want to start entering the Raja stock market,
10:03Raja stock can be considered in the price range
10:06from IDR 2,050 up to IDR 1,850.
10:11Meanwhile, for the closest resistance level,
10:14currently at the level of IDR 2,350,
10:17with the next resistance level,
10:19that is the resistance of the bullish channel,
10:21at around the level of IDR 2,750.
10:23Overall, because seeing Raja,
10:25even though the correction of the last two days is quite deep,
10:28but it still remains in the bullish trend,
10:31so it can still be recommended to pay the money until now.
10:34Okay, Raja has experienced a significant increase in support,
10:38in August it was still moving in the thousands,
10:40the highest position ever to IDR 2,500.
10:44The correction that happened in the last few days,
10:46the bullish trend of the Raja stock is still quite maintained
10:49and is still recommended.
10:51And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of IDR channel supporters.
10:55Mr. Wafi, we'll hold for a while,
10:57later we'll just see what Samsung recommends,
10:59and at the same time, an update on the closing of the Indekar Gas Amkabungan movement
11:02in the second session today.
11:04And we'll be right back.