Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ( IHSG ) tergelincir signifikan saat penutupan perdagangan hari Jumat, tergerus 132 poin (-1,98%) ke posisi 6.515. Berbeda dengan pasar saham domestik, emas justru mencapai rekor sepanjang masa tembus USD3.000/troy ons, karena meningkatnya ketegangan perdagangan global membuat investor gelisah dan memicu pelarian ke aset safe haven.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us again in MarketBuzz.
00:08In this segment, we will discuss a number of sentiments
00:11or triggers from the capital market that made the IHSG
00:14on Friday again experience a weakness,
00:16quite sharp, almost 2%.
00:18And before that, we will present some headlines
00:22from the capital market in last week's trade,
00:26where the IHSG fell 2% to 6,500.
00:29This is the announcement of the APBN's deficit in February 2025.
00:33Technology, sectoral weakness leader fell by around 3%.
00:37DCEI fell 20% to Rp 180,925,
00:42after auto-reject or profit.
00:45Then there is also BCA fell to IHSG heavyweight,
00:49weakening 2.5% to Rp 8,750.
00:53From the spotlight market, we invite you to collect
00:55some global economic agendas that should be
00:57the focus of the IHSG for Monday, March 17, 2025.
01:00Among them, there is retail sales from the United States.
01:03Then there is also an index of consumer prices from Italy,
01:08industrial production from China,
01:11and the level of unemployment from China,
01:13circulating money from South Korea.
01:15Then the IHSG trade balance from Singapore.
01:19And there is also a trade balance from the country or Indonesia.
01:24Let's continue to highlight some of the ME10's agendas.
01:29There is a general meeting of NICK's shareholders.
01:32And we see an update from Asia.
01:34Is it still continuing to strengthen after the end of the week?
01:38It tends to go up compared to the IHSG,
01:40which actually fell 2%.
01:42There is Nikkei Japan there, which rose 1.26%.
01:45Sharetimes rose 0.49%.
01:47Kospi rose 1.54%.
01:50Sengkongkong rose 1.11%.
01:53Is it still continuing to strengthen from Asia?
01:57What are the opportunities from the IHSG this morning,
01:59Mr. Mirsa?
02:00And what are the sentiments that we will discuss
02:03this morning through a video conference
02:05with Mr. Muhammad Tariq Fadilah,
02:08Research Analyst PT Lotus Andalan Sekuritas.
02:10Good morning, Mr. Tariq.
02:12Good morning, Mrs. Prisa.
02:13Thank you for your time this morning.
02:16Mr. Tariq, before we discuss the IHSG,
02:18one of the current domestic market triggers
02:22may be the commodity price,
02:24especially gold,
02:25which fell to US$3,000 per ounce
02:28at the end of last week,
02:30although it fell slightly below that.
02:32How do you see the strengthening of this gold price
02:35because there are many market players
02:38who may be inclined to asset safe haven
02:40in line with global instability,
02:42especially perhaps from the tariff
02:45that is always looked at by Trump.
02:48Okay, Mrs. Prisa.
02:49We also need to look at the fact that
02:51the rise in the price of gold
02:53once touched the level of US$3,400 per ounce.
02:59It was also driven by uncertainty
03:01from the global economy,
03:02especially from the trade war
03:06that was waged by the United States
03:08through Canada, Mexico, China,
03:10and recently,
03:12the latest data shows that
03:15even Trump will also threaten
03:17to impose a 200% tariff
03:19on packaged grains to the European Union.
03:22So, in fact, we are still under pressure
03:25from the global side
03:27regarding the tariff war,
03:29which is usually,
03:30even if we pull back,
03:32usually only Ukraine and Russia
03:35or escalation from the Middle East war.
03:38Now we tend to focus on
03:40trade tariffs between
03:43the United States and countries
03:45that are,
03:46can be said,
03:47are at war.
03:48Well, I assess that
03:50actually,
03:51market players are still tend to
03:54make purchases
03:56of safe haven assets
03:57because the stock market
03:59or other financial markets
04:01are still volatile.
04:02Then I also assess
04:04that market players are still waiting
04:06for the Fed policy
04:07on the direction of cutting
04:09relations further.
04:10Well, I also pay attention
04:12that even though trade tariffs
04:14are still dominating
04:16the sentiment from the global,
04:18I also assess that there are concerns
04:20about the potential recession
04:22in the United States
04:23can also be said
04:24to be the main factor
04:25that pushes investors
04:26or market players
04:27to switch to safe haven assets
04:29such as gold.
04:30Even though macroeconomic indicators
04:32such as unemployment rates
04:34or job growth
04:35are still generally stable,
04:37but from JP Morgan
04:38it still assumes
04:39the need for a recession
04:40of about 40%.
04:41So with the existing sentiment,
04:43it is able to move
04:45the gold price
04:46up to Rp 3,400.
04:47Okay.
04:48There is a trade war
04:49of the potential recession
04:50of the United States
04:51where JP Morgan estimates
04:52that 40% of the U.S. currency
04:54will experience a recession.
04:56Okay.
04:57In addition to the sentiment
04:58about the trade war
04:59of the United States,
05:00how about gold
05:01which may also be supported
05:02by the demands
05:03of the central bank?
05:04Maybe like China
05:05as the main buyer,
05:06this continues to increase
05:07the reserve of gold
05:08for the fourth month
05:09in a row
05:10last February.
05:12Actually,
05:13if there is a correlation
05:14with China
05:15who continues to buy
05:16gold assets,
05:17in my opinion,
05:18it can also be said
05:19to be a driving force
05:20for the strengthening
05:21of the gold price
05:22in the future.
05:23Moreover,
05:24there are many predictions
05:25from analysts,
05:26especially from Macquire,
05:27which also estimates
05:28the gold price
05:29to touch the Rp 3,500
05:30range
05:31in the third quarter
05:32of 2025.
05:33So there is still
05:34a great opportunity
05:35for gold prices
05:36to reach
05:38the Rp 3,400 level
05:39or forecasted
05:40in the range
05:41of Rp 3,200
05:42to Rp 3,500.
05:44I think it's pretty good
05:45for gold prices
05:46to reach that level.
05:48Is there a chance
05:49for Rp 3,400
05:50to Rp 3,500
05:51at the end of 2025?
05:53Yes, that's right.
05:54According to Macquire,
05:55Rp 3,500
05:56is in the range
05:57of the third quarter
05:58of 2025.
05:59Let's just round it up
06:00at the end
06:01of 2025.
06:04Higher than
06:05the Goldman Sachs projection
06:06that there is
06:07a chance
06:08to reach Rp 3,300.
06:09Okay.
06:10You just touched
06:11on the expectation
06:12of monetary policy
06:13relaxation
06:14by the Federal Reserve
06:15or the Central Bank
06:16of the United States
06:17to support
06:18the increase
06:19in gold prices.
06:20Traders expect
06:21that the Fed
06:22will cut off
06:23the flowering season
06:24in June
06:25for this year
06:26which creates assets
06:27without a profit
06:28such as gold
06:29at a value
06:30that is more interesting.
06:31This weekend
06:32there may also be
06:33a meeting
06:34from the Fed
06:35to discuss
06:36our own domestic
06:37policy in Indonesia.
06:38Does this mean
06:39that in the short term,
06:40especially since
06:41there may be holidays,
06:42although the correlation
06:43may not be too close
06:44with the return
06:45of gold
06:46as a decoration,
06:47but you see
06:48in the short term,
06:49does this mean
06:50that gold still has
06:51a chance
06:52to continue
06:53from Rp 3,000?
06:54For example,
06:55for the short term
06:56to the medium term,
06:57I still believe
06:58there is still
06:59a probability
07:00to reach
07:01Rp 3,000 again.
07:02Why?
07:03At the beginning
07:04the price of gold
07:05until it reaches
07:06Rp 3,000
07:07is still
07:08in the position
07:09of Rp 2,800
07:10up to Rp 2,900.
07:11In my opinion,
07:12that is a fairly
07:13stable number
07:14for gold.
07:15Usually,
07:16regarding
07:17negative sentiments,
07:18usually
07:19significant increase
07:20is accompanied
07:21by significant decrease.
07:22However,
07:23I feel
07:24that since
07:25there is
07:26a sentiment
07:27about the exchange rate,
07:28the price of gold
07:29is still
07:30fairly stable
07:31in the range
07:32of Rp 2,800
07:33For example,
07:34regarding
07:35the sentiment
07:36of the FED
07:37that will
07:38continue
07:39the exchange rate
07:40in June
07:41or July
07:42as mentioned earlier,
07:43I feel that
07:44in the short term
07:45to the medium term,
07:46the price of gold
07:47is still
07:48rising.
07:49In the range
07:50of Rp 2,900
07:51up to Rp 3,000
07:52or in the areas
07:53of resistance
07:54at the highest level
07:55at Rp 3,400.
07:56Okay.
07:57Okay.
07:58There is no sentiment
07:59that gold
08:00tends to be
08:01stable
08:02in the range
08:03of Rp 2,800
08:04or Rp 2,900.
08:05Moreover,
08:06when there is
08:07a sentiment
08:08that makes
08:09the world economy
08:10tend to fluctuate,
08:11it does not
08:12cover the possibility.
08:13Indeed,
08:14the global financial
08:15investment
08:16companies
08:17have increased
08:18their projections
08:19from Rp 3,300
08:20to Rp 3,500
08:21at the end
08:22of this
08:23year.
08:24Okay.
08:25Sorry.
08:26So,
08:27is this
08:28gold rally
08:29the most
08:30questioned
08:31in the world
08:32economy?
08:33Is it
08:34because
08:35the price
08:36of gold
08:37has increased
08:38so that
08:39investors
08:40are eager
08:41to find
08:42protection
08:43from economic
08:44and geopolitical
08:45shocks?
08:46Actually,
08:47if we look
08:48at gold,
08:49for now,
08:50is it still
08:51worth
08:52collecting
08:53or auctioning?
08:54I think
08:55it's still
08:56okay,
08:57actually,
08:58all of you.
08:59Why?
09:00Because
09:01the commodity
09:02sector,
09:03the oil price
09:04that used to
09:05experience
09:06a boost
09:07due to the
09:08Middle East
09:09escalation,
09:10is now
09:11experiencing a
09:12weakness
09:13compared to
09:14coal,
09:15which tends
09:16to be in
09:17the range
09:18of Rp 100
09:19to Rp 102.
09:20I think
09:21the price
09:22of gold
09:23is still
09:24quite interesting.
09:25The price
09:26of gold
09:27is still
09:28quite interesting.
09:29So,
09:30people still prefer
09:31safe haven,
09:32assets that
09:33aren't too clean,
09:34like the
09:35stock market.
09:36Where will our
09:37market be
09:38by the end of the year?
09:39Okay,
09:40from a global
09:41perspective,
09:42we need to
09:43look at
09:44the first
09:45official statements
09:46from the US.
09:47Will there
09:48really be
09:49an increase
09:50in tariffs?
09:51Because
09:52I think
09:53Donald Trump
09:54tends to
09:55hesitate
09:56when it comes
09:57to
09:58negotiations
09:59with
10:00the US.
10:01We need to
10:02look at
10:03the US
10:04press
10:05statement
10:06and
10:07also
10:08look at
10:09whether
10:10there is
10:11still a
10:12tendency
10:13to negotiate
10:14against
10:15the tariff
10:16war.
10:17If, for
10:18example,
10:19negotiations
10:20have been
10:21agreed upon,
10:22I think
10:23the capital
10:24market
10:25tends to
10:26be more
10:27volatile
10:28than
10:29the other
10:30markets.
10:31How
10:32about the
10:33opportunity
10:34for the
10:35joint stock
10:36index?
10:37We'll
10:38go over
10:39all the
10:40details later.
10:41We'll
10:42come back
10:43after the
10:44break.
10:45Thank you
10:46for joining
10:47us again.
10:48We're still
10:49talking with
10:50Mas Muhammad
10:51Fadilah,
10:52a PT
10:53research
10:54analyst
10:55at
10:56the
10:57National
10:58Institute
10:59of
11:00Statistics.
11:01We're
11:02still
11:03talking
11:04about
11:05the
11:06opportunity
11:07for the
11:08joint stock
11:09index.
11:10We'll
11:11come back
11:12after the
11:13break.
11:14Thank
11:15you for
11:16joining
11:17us again.
11:18We'll
11:19come back
11:20after the
11:21break.
11:22Thank
11:23you for
11:24joining
11:25us again.
11:26We'll
11:27come back
11:28after the
11:29break.
11:30Thank
11:31you for
11:32joining
11:33us again.
11:35We'll
11:36come back
11:37after the
11:38break.
11:39Thank
11:40you.
11:41Thank
11:42you very
11:43much.
11:44Thank
11:45you very
11:46much.
11:47Thank
11:48you very
11:49much.
11:50Goodbye.
11:52at the beginning of March 2025, foreign net sales reached 4.14 trillion rupiah.
11:58The correlation with the APBN deficit, which recorded a deficit of 31.2 trillion
12:04or around 0.13% of GDP, can be said to be a weakness due to the APBN deficit.
12:12Because government programs that are more aggressive, in my opinion,
12:17such as the construction of 3 million houses, the reallocation of budget for free food and drink,
12:22and among other things, there is also the shortage of core tax, which is also able to burden the APBN itself.
12:30Even though the Minister of Finance, Mr. Mulyani, also said that the APBN deficit is still in line with the prediction.
12:37But a number of analysts and economists say that the APBN deficit is due to the existence of programs
12:43that I mentioned earlier, such as MBG, core tax, and the construction of 3 million houses.
12:47So, according to analysts or economists, it seems that the government must immediately evaluate
12:54in terms of financing or mechanisms of the programs.
12:59Then, the decline of the IHSG is not only due to the APBN deficit,
13:04which I also assess because there is a gap between Goldman and Morgan Stanley.
13:12Morgan Stanley is from equal to underweight, and Goldman is from overweight to market weight, or around neutral.
13:22So, with the APBN deficit, as well as the shortage of ratings from Goldman or Morgan Stanley,
13:29I think it is due to the impact of the IHSG movement in the past.
13:34With all these triggers, where will the IHSG go in the short term?
13:39In the short term, I still believe that the IHSG is still moving sideways with a volatile tendency,
13:45or can be said to be weakening.
13:47The closest support is 6379, the closest resistance is 6559.
13:51Although if we look at it technically, the IHSG is currently experiencing a slight weakness at 0.2
14:01and is now experiencing a slight weakness.
14:03Indeed, I think there is still a probability of experiencing a weakness towards the support that I mentioned earlier.
14:09Because from a technical point of view, the ASEAN sales are still dominating,
14:13and there are still no indicators of a technical rebound.
14:18So, I think the IHSG movement is still sideways with a volatile tendency.
14:22Okay, still sideways with a volatile tendency.
14:25The sectoral weakness leadership technology is 12.7%.
14:28Is this normal, given that the strength is also daily?
14:31And a little comment about DCEI, which is down 20%, but it's also down because it's already daily.
14:37How do you see it?
14:39For the technology sector, in my opinion, the weakness is quite normal.
14:45Because as we know, the IHSG, if it can be said to be a strength,
14:52in addition to because of banking or conglomeration, the IHSG is also supported by the technology sector.
14:57Well, it was proven yesterday when DCEI was down to ARB 20%,
15:03then the downfall of DCEI also dominated the technology sector,
15:07it was also able to dominate the IHSG movement.
15:11So, for the technology sector, which is already down 12.7%,
15:15I estimate that investors or market players are already taking profits.
15:20Because the increase has been significant, like DCEI too.
15:24DCEI, since there was news about the stock split action, it has experienced a strength of up to 390%.
15:31So I think it's the right time for the market players to take that profit.
15:36And concerns will still arise about the IHSG, the IHSG will still be weakened,
15:42led by the technology sector first.
15:46Well, moreover, I also assess that the fundamentals of the technology sector are also high.
15:52For example, if we give an example of the price-to-earning ratio of Wi-Fi stocks,
15:57it has reached 20.19 times, while if we look at the use of industry or sectoral,
16:03it is only 17.6 times, compared to around 2.3 to 2.4 times.
16:09I think the technology sector should tend to experience a weakness first.
16:14The price has been discounted, it can be reversed by the market players.
16:20For example, the market cap of DCEI is quite large, 350 trillion rupiah.
16:27So when there is a significant movement, it weighs the movement of the IHSG.