Perbankan yang tengah dihadapkan pada potensi peralihan dana yang ditempatkan nasabah dari deposito ke instrumen investasi lain yang dinilai lebih menarik. Hal ini dinilai membuat perbankan akan sulit bersaing khususnya untuk mencari likuiditas.
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TVTranscript
00:00Hello Pemirsa, how are you during this Eid holiday?
00:24I'm Prinses Wampudatu, back again in Special Dialog.
00:27For the next 30 minutes, we will invite you to listen to interesting topics that we will present.
00:33And don't forget to watch our live streaming at eidxchannel.com.
00:36Let's follow Pemirsa's Special Dialog.
00:41Special Dialog
00:51This time, Pemirsa will discuss about the banks that are facing the potential of funds that are placed by customers.
00:58From deposits to other investment instruments that are considered more attractive.
01:02For example, SBN.
01:04These things are considered to make banks difficult to compete, especially to find liquidity.
01:11Central Banks
01:13Central banks are facing the potential of funds that are placed by customers.
01:17From deposits to other investment instruments that are considered more attractive, such as SBN.
01:23This happens because SBN is much higher than banks in terms of revenue.
01:28This condition makes banks faced with liquidity competition in the market.
01:32The burden of funds remains high even though the interest rate of funds has decreased.
01:37Where the interest rate of banks is only 4% compared to SBN, which is still 6%.
01:45In addition, the rate of obligations is 6% to 9%.
01:49While the interest rate is only 5.75%.
01:53This is what makes the liquidity finally decrease.
01:57Along with that, the funds of the three banks on the individual side experienced a decrease of about 2.6% annually.
02:06Meanwhile, the ownership of the individual in SBN actually increased to 25.79% annually,
02:12to 577 trillion rupiah.
02:16Previously, former President-Director of BCI Yahya Setiat Majah admitted
02:20that there is competition with SBN to find liquidity.
02:23Where the interest rate of B.I. decreased but the interest rate of SBN actually increased.
02:28He evaluated the interest rate of SBN since it has begun to normalize.
02:32However, it can rise again when the government offers new SBN and the demand in the market is not too strong.
02:39If this happens, the impact will be great for BCA,
02:42where 200,000 rich customers owned by BCA contribute more than 70% of the total funding.
02:50Meanwhile, the rich customers who have the most potential to transfer their money to SBN.
02:56Various sources, IDX Channel.
03:03That was a summary of the trend of the decline of the flow rate, which is currently at 5.75%,
03:08estimated to threaten the liquidity of banks.
03:11To discuss it is already connected through this video conference,
03:13together with Mr. David Esmual, Head of Economics of BCA.
03:17Hello, Mr. David, how are you?
03:19Hello, Mrs. Prisa, how are you?
03:20The news is amazing.
03:21Thank you, Mr. David, in the middle of the holiday situation right now,
03:24taking the opportunity to discuss with IDX Channel,
03:27discussing a rather interesting topic.
03:29Mr. David, related to the loss of deposits from SBN,
03:33how does BCA see this?
03:37Yes, it is true that the trend of the flow rate tends to decline.
03:42In fact, recently, if we look at it, the flow rate of SRBI has also declined by 6.5%.
03:50And if we look at it, the flow rate of SBN is still quite interesting.
03:54If we look at it, the share of SBN ownership per capita continues to increase.
04:00The last figure was around 12%,
04:03whereas in 2022 it was still around 7%.
04:07So, the ownership of SBN continues to increase,
04:12while the share of banks in the ownership of SBN is actually decreasing.
04:18So, more or less the portion is the same as the increase in the ownership of Investor Retail.
04:24So, the share of banks has dropped from 39% to 37%.
04:29So, there is a kind of repositioning, there is a shift.
04:34And this also eventually tightens the competition between banks
04:37because in the end it will affect the net interest margin too.
04:43How does the strategy face a situation like this?
04:47Especially for how, in quotes, to compete for liquidity between banks?
04:52Yes, each bank has its own strategy.
04:56And if we pay attention,
04:58the main thing is how we look for liquidity
05:03which is relatively cheaper in terms of flow rate.
05:07Often referred to as cheap funds.
05:11And if we look at it, the competition is quite tight lately.
05:14But in the end, if we look at the field,
05:17there is also a tendency for competition between funds.
05:23Besides that, if we look at it,
05:26the share of SRBI is still relatively high.
05:29So, it's not just a competition between banks,
05:31there is also a competition between the share of SRBI and SBN.
05:35So, there are three pillars if we look at it in the market.
05:42And this also triggers an increase in the share of Deposito.
05:46If we look at it in the market,
05:48because until the beginning of the year, it's still relatively tight.
05:52Although in the end, liquidity has slightly loosened.
05:57And the central bank has also started to loosen
06:00by decreasing the flow rate.
06:02But there was a discrepancy earlier,
06:04where the flow rate of B fell,
06:06but on the other hand, the flow rate of SBN is still relatively high.
06:10Is there a strategy that can be done by banks
06:13to deal with the flow rate of SBN itself,
06:18which is still higher,
06:20so that later Deposito will lose
06:22or other instruments from the banks will lose?
06:26Maybe there is also a discussion with the government?
06:30What do you think, David?
06:33Yes, I think this is also part of the central bank's policy.
06:36If we look at it, the pressure from the outside is still relatively strong.
06:40We can see that in the market,
06:43almost all currencies have weakened against the dollar
06:46since the end of last year, since Trump was elected.
06:49On the other hand, in the capital market,
06:51in the emerging market, most of them are still negative.
06:54So the conditions are quite challenging on the one hand.
06:59And if we look at it,
07:01it does require a special strategy from each bank,
07:05at the same time maintaining the quality
07:08in the condition of liquidity that is relatively tight.
07:12It is also very important for us to maintain the quality of assets from the banks.
07:18And they must also develop their own ecosystems
07:23to maintain their customers,
07:28and also offer solutions that make it easier for customers,
07:32especially with digital innovation or end-to-end solutions.
07:37There are many end-to-end solutions in terms of supply chain and so on.
07:41And also, if we look at it from the liquidity side,
07:49it is a reality on the ground.
07:51We have to face it, it is relatively tight.
07:54And if we look at the numbers, it is still tending to increase.
07:58But we can see that the credit growth is still much faster.
08:03It is still double-digit.
08:05While the GDP growth is still tending to decline.
08:08Okay.
08:09There are several important points regarding the decline of the deposit flow rate in 2025.
08:13And the BCA has updated the Rupiah Deposit Flow Rate
08:16effective on February 14, 2025.
08:19We will present the information and analysis later.
08:23Stay with us on the IDX Channel Special Dialogue.
08:28IDX Channel Special Dialogue
08:31IDX Channel Special Dialogue
08:43We are still discussing the effect of the decline of the flower range on liquidity and credit.
08:48And we are still talking to Mr. David Sumwal, who is the President of the BCA.
08:54But before that, Mr. David and Mr. Mirza, let's take a look at some important points
08:58related to the decline of the 2025 flower deposit rate.
09:02From 6%, it dropped to 5.75%.
09:06Then, there is a goal from the BIR to make sure that inflation is still controlled
09:11at a target of 2.5% plus or minus 1% in 2025
09:16and 2026, as well as supporting sustainable economic growth.
09:22Here is an example of a bank that updated, such as BCA,
09:25updated the effective flow rate of the Rupiah deposit on February 14, 2025.
09:29However, not all banks dropped.
09:32Some banks have not fully adjusted the flow rate of the deposit
09:35in line with the decline of the BIR and still maintain a relatively stable flow rate.
09:42BCA updated the effective flow rate of the Rupiah deposit on February 14, 2025
09:47You can see the complete data on your TV screen, Mr. Mirza.
09:58These are the data on the flower deposit rate update
10:05in percent per year and period of time per month.
10:08We will return to the discussion with Mr. David.
10:13Some banks have not fully adjusted the flow rate of the deposit
10:18in line with the decline of the BIR and still maintain a relatively stable flow rate.
10:21Although BCA updated the flow rate of the deposit,
10:24it has not been fully adjusted. Is that correct, Mr. David?
10:28Yes, it depends on the liquidity condition of each bank.
10:32As I said earlier, it is still relatively tight.
10:35So, from the LDR side, for example,
10:38the reality on the ground is still around 85%.
10:42And we also see that the flow rate of the SRBI,
10:45even though it dropped, is still around 6.5%.
10:48And the SBN also has a relatively high flow rate.
10:52So, there are banks that have been able to reduce the flow rate of the SRBI.
10:57And this is also expected to be followed by a decrease in the flow rate of credit.
11:00But there are also other banks that feel that the liquidity condition is relatively tight.
11:05So, if we look at it, the Rupiah also tends to weaken in the last two quarters.
11:10This will usually have a tight correlation with the liquidity condition.
11:14Because Indonesian banks usually have to do it in such a condition.
11:21When they do the stabilization, it will usually affect the liquidity,
11:25especially the Rupiah liquidity.
11:28What is the situation like?
11:29What is the liquidity picture from the BCA that has been updated at the moment?
11:33Mr. David, considering its performance throughout 2024,
11:36is it still quite solid?
11:39Yes, if the BCA, if the Rupiah is still quite solid,
11:46the BCA also prioritizes the quality of the cash.
11:50And we also see that our average cost of fund is relatively good.
11:54So, this is also one thing that continues to be maintained.
11:58This is why we can also give credit to the Rupiah.
12:02Because the Rupiah is still quite solid.
12:05So, if we look at it, the Rupiah is still quite solid.
12:11This is why we can also give credit to the customers
12:16who are still quite good in terms of quality.
12:20And that is also reflected in the quality of our assets.
12:24What about the deposit condition?
12:26Because it was said by the former President Director of the BCA
12:30that there is a possibility that the trend of deposit will decline.
12:35And what is the significant impact if this trend continues
12:39as well as the decline of the flower population
12:41which could still fall from 5.75% at the moment?
12:46Yes, overall, we must all banks see whether the liquidity condition is sufficient or not.
12:52And so far, there is a gesture from the Indonesian banks to release.
12:59And indeed, in the future, if we look at it globally,
13:03there is also a tendency there,
13:05where the economic condition is also not so conducive,
13:10we see it globally,
13:12so many central banks are starting to loosen their monetary policy.
13:15Likewise, the Indonesian banks.
13:17This will also affect the flower population.
13:20The flower population, especially the flower deposit, is also a concern.
13:25From the trend of the decline of the flower population that has occurred
13:28and there is also an adjustment from the BCA,
13:30how do you see the trend of the flower deposit from the BCA itself so far?
13:35Yes, I notice that there will definitely be a positive correlation
13:40between the flower population of central banks
13:44and the flower population of deposit.
13:47In this case, the flower population of deposit.
13:50And I also notice that for some banks,
13:53the liquidity pressure is not so strong,
13:56so there is room to reduce the flower population of deposit.
14:00So not all banks experience a fairly strong liquidity pressure.
14:04What are the characteristics of banks whose liquidity is still quite strong
14:08and which ones seem to be quite weak?
14:11Yes, it is usually seen from the ratio side.
14:14For example, one of the ratios seen is LDR.
14:17It can also be seen from the ratio side of the total fund.
14:24For banks that can be above 70%,
14:27the flower population usually has more room to manoeuvre.
14:33But if, on the contrary, 70% of the deposit,
14:37it will usually be difficult.
14:40There is definitely a strategy for each bank to develop the funds of the three parties,
14:47especially prioritizing the quality of the flower population.
14:53From you as a senior economist, Mr. David,
14:57what is the hope for the flower population at the moment?
15:01Is the future still hopeful or what?
15:05I think it will definitely adjust.
15:08We also have to look at the conditions.
15:11If it still needs to be tightened, we have to tighten it.
15:15Because if we are too relaxed,
15:19when the global conditions are still full of pressure,
15:25the concern will affect the quality of the assets as well.
15:29So, if we loosen it, while the environment is challenging,
15:35it will eventually be transmitted to the credit market.
15:39And this will certainly make it very difficult for banks.
15:42And of course, stakeholders, especially regulators, will see
15:46what the conditions are like, so that they can see the situation
15:50before implementing, for example, monetary policies, including exemptions.
15:55Mr. David Melis, is there still room for the decline of the flower population to continue in the near future?
16:00I think it depends on the global conditions,
16:04especially if we really pay attention to Trump's actions.
16:08As we can see, it's like playing the god of drunkenness.
16:13We don't know yet.
16:15Hopefully, they can finish the trade negotiations quickly.
16:20Not only with China, but also with Europe, Canada, Mexico.
16:24So that the global conditions are more conducive.
16:27If I pay attention, the pressure on the financial market can be reduced,
16:32so that there is room for a decline.
16:34Because we also need a little relaxation,
16:36because from the economic point of view, we can see that in the first quarter,
16:40the economy is relatively slow.
16:43Okay. So far, we can see that Trump's policies,
16:47including tariffs, are then responded to by the countries he wants,
16:50followed by Trump's addition,
16:53which ultimately is to have a win-win negotiation,
16:57to make the government in the country,
17:00and then the BI, to make adjustments to protect our economy.
17:04But when adjustments are made, it may threaten the liquidity of the banks.
17:08What are you most worried about when the liquidity of the banks is threatened,
17:13in your opinion, if this continues?
17:16Yes, this is indeed a dilemma.
17:18If, for example, Trump is also tight,
17:20while the economy does need stimulus in terms of, for example,
17:25to encourage growth, yes, this will certainly interfere later.
17:29But the policy instrument is not just monetary policy, Mrs. President.
17:33There are still other policy instruments,
17:36including fiscal policy, trade policy, and investment,
17:40especially trade and investment,
17:43how we attract investment, especially the FDI,
17:46so that it can be stronger.
17:48And also our trade policy,
17:50which can make the trade flow better in the future.
17:54What can be the optimism of market players,
17:56especially in the banking sector, which has recently been released?
18:00Mr. David, we will discuss it later.
18:02Thank you, Mr. Mirza, for joining us in this special dialogue.
18:05Thank you, Mr. Mirza, for joining us in this special dialogue.
18:08And we will continue our discussion in the next segment.
18:32Thank you, Mr. Mirza, for joining us in this video conference with Mr. David.
18:34All the economic leaders of the BCA
18:36are talking about the phenomenon of more interesting investment,
18:41especially in the SBN, than in the deposit,
18:44which may also affect or threaten the liquidity of the banks.
18:47Mr. David has said that the instrument in the market
18:52is not just through money, there are many things that can be mixed.
18:55So what is the optimism that can be given from Mr. David
18:59when he sees the banking industry, which has recently been released
19:02by local investors and foreign investors
19:05in line with the price index and our community, which once fell?
19:09Yes, this was not separated from the global condition either.
19:13So what is downgraded is actually not just Indonesia.
19:17So the emerging market is mostly, if we look at it,
19:21mostly downgraded by foreign institutions, especially.
19:26And this certainly affects the sentiment of foreign investors.
19:29And if we look at the capital market,
19:32the banks' market cap is also relatively large.
19:37So if there is a sell-off, it will definitely affect the rise and fall of the capital market index.
19:45And we also know that banks also follow the trade.
19:50So the valuation will be very determined
19:54and very justified by the potential for economic growth.
19:58And we see that the momentum of economic growth is slowing down a bit at the beginning of this year.
20:02And this is actually just a potential for us to grow faster in the second semester.
20:09Because we need adjustments with various new policies that are being implemented.
20:14We want to push growth even stronger in the future.
20:17In terms of valuation, it's quite interesting now.
20:21If I look at the banking sector,
20:23and this is also likely to be tilted.
20:26If you look at the valuation,
20:28tilted by the investor, I mean.
20:31From the valuation point of view, it's already very interesting, Mrs. Frisa.
20:35From the valuation point of view, it's already very interesting.
20:37Because it can be said that maybe there is already a lot of discount, right, Mr. David?
20:41Well, at this festive moment,
20:44what are your expectations for the banking sector,
20:48which may be contributed by the community as well?
20:51Well, as I mentioned earlier,
20:53the banking sector only follows the economic conditions.
20:56If the economy is good, the banking industry will also follow it quite well.
21:01I think it's very important to maintain
21:04so that these policies are done better.
21:09From a structural point of view, for example,
21:11the population of the people who do not yet have an account is still a lot.
21:17We are still in the process of pulling the unbanked population into the banking ecosystem.
21:28That's one of our priorities.
21:30The second is also digitalization.
21:32We have to push for digitalization of banking.
21:34The last one is probably from the liquidity side.
21:37Liquidity will also be greatly affected by the realization of government budgets.
21:42So we have to expect from the government
21:47so that the realization of these budgets can also be accelerated.
21:50So that it does not interfere with liquidity nationally.
21:55So that growth, even in the first quarter,
21:58I think it may be a bit slow,
22:00starting in the second quarter and so on, it can be better again.
22:04What will contribute when in the first quarter,
22:08but in the second quarter it will be better than in the first quarter?
22:12This is still a hope.
22:14Because one thing that is the key is also the realization of spending.
22:18The government, as you can see in the first quarter, is not very fast.
22:22Then we notice that the external conditions are still challenging.
22:27So from the inside or from the outside, it is still full of challenges.
22:31And I see that if it can be done quickly,
22:36in the past, during Trump 1.0, the negotiations were up to a year.
22:41Now it shouldn't be that long.
22:45So maybe the hope is the longest one semester.
22:49Or one quarter is enough.
22:51After that, we can be calmer again,
22:54so that from the liquidity side,
22:58and also the business people can be more confident in making business decisions.
23:03Okay.
23:04Lastly, Mr. David, this is a new government, new policy,
23:08and we know there is efficiency,
23:10and it is also free from external sentiment.
23:15Are you still optimistic?
23:17If the hope can be achieved,
23:19then the economic performance, especially the BCA in the second quarter,
23:23will still be as solid as the previous year,
23:26or even better with the same period?
23:30Yes, even though I mentioned earlier that in the first quarter there may be a little pressure,
23:34each bank must have its own strategy to anticipate.
23:38And I'm still sure that in the second semester,
23:41it will be even better, Ms. Prisaya.
23:44Because we notice that there is a desire to accelerate growth,
23:50because we also want to absorb workers, especially.
23:54And actually the steps have been done quite well,
23:58including the implementation,
24:00so that the budget realization can be accelerated.
24:04Then also the programs that have been proposed,
24:07including the MBG, must also be accelerated,
24:10so that liquidity can be better in the second quarter, third quarter, and so on.
24:15Okay.
24:16A little too much, indeed,
24:17waiting for the realization of the government's excellent programs.
24:22Mr. David, I hope it can be realized well,
24:24and our banking industry can be even more solid.
24:27Mr. David, thank you for sharing your information in this special dialogue.
24:31We wish you a happy Eid al-Fitr.
24:34I'm sorry, Mr. David, for your heart and soul.
24:36Yes, I'm sorry for my heart and soul.
24:37See you, sir.
24:40And that concludes our discussion with David Sumol,
24:44who is the head economist of BCS.
24:46I hope it can be a reference for you.
24:48It's been 30 minutes since we accompanied you in this special dialogue,
24:50in this Eid al-Fitr edition of Pemirsa.
24:52I hope it can be a reference for you.
24:54And I, Prinses Omodatu, would like to take this opportunity
24:56and all the crew to wish you a happy Eid al-Fitr.
24:59I'm sorry for my heart and soul.
25:01See you.
25:22♪♪♪