IHSG ditutup melemah 0,45% ke 7.293,96 di sesi I hari ini, Kamis (5/12). Sektor properti +0,88%, Sektor energi naik 0,52% ADMR +3,14%. Sektor transportasi +0,16% BIRD 1,04%. Sektor keuangan -0,82% BBRI -2,07% BMRI -2,75% BBNI -2,63%. Saham perbankan Big Caps melemah dilanda profit taking, usai naik tinggi sebelumnya. Sektor teknologi turun 0,28% EMTK -2,78%.
Dari global, Tiga indeks utama Wall Street mencetak rekor penutupan tertinggi, Rabu, karena saham teknologi menguat setelah laporan keuangan Salesforce dan komentar Chairman The Fed Jerome Powell, memberikan dorongan bagi pasar.
Dari global, Tiga indeks utama Wall Street mencetak rekor penutupan tertinggi, Rabu, karena saham teknologi menguat setelah laporan keuangan Salesforce dan komentar Chairman The Fed Jerome Powell, memberikan dorongan bagi pasar.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review how the trading is going throughout the day,
00:12where the price of the joint stock is more tense, but the level of 7,300 is still able to be maintained,
00:18even though today's intraday hit 7,280 AMPS.
00:23And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812
00:288788.723, as shown on your TV screen later.
00:34And right now, we are connected through Zoom with Mr. Andri Zakaria Serega,
00:38co-founder of Siti Esaham Group.
00:40We will go straight to you, Mr. Andri, good afternoon, how are you?
00:43Good afternoon, Mas David, Alhamdulillah, I'm fine.
00:45Thank you, Mr. Andri, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:49Let's go straight to you, Mr. Andri, we will review the movement in the domestic market today.
00:54It is more tense after two days of profitable trading, experiencing significant strength.
01:00Today's weakness is more towards the limit, exactly 30 minutes after closing.
01:06Intraday hit 2,800, but position 7,300 is maintained to this day.
01:12Your analysis?
01:15Yes, both technical and flow.
01:19Indeed, our index is normal to experience technical rebound,
01:22because it has been projected to be almost 11%.
01:25From the highest in 1910, in September, to the lowest yesterday, 70741.
01:31At almost 11% rebound, I think, I mean, 11% projection, I think,
01:35experienced technical rebound.
01:37Even now, foreign investors are also supported, it is still net buy.
01:41Two days ago, foreign investors net buy 2.8 trillion.
01:45So, it looks like the market has a little space for actual window dressing.
01:50This has been done by several BNN companies, especially banks, BBRI,
01:56rebound, Mandiri, BNI, Biasa Marga, Indosat, even Telkom.
02:01Even today, the profit taking is reasonable,
02:04because tomorrow there will be data from American workers,
02:07the prediction will also be legit compared to the previous data.
02:10This is what leads to speculation,
02:12hopefully, the Fed will not be too aggressive to cut the flow in the first half of the year.
02:17So, I think this is a normal prediction,
02:19before next week there will be another rally for the index.
02:22The target is still 7350 to 7450.
02:25In the short term, in the medium term, it can be up to,
02:28at least next week, before the meeting of the Fed and BIRI,
02:32I think it can be up to a maximum of 7600.
02:38For the short term, tomorrow first.
02:40Where will the direction go for the Samkabungan family?
02:43I think tomorrow can still be strengthened.
02:45So today, if you look at our index, it's just that the correction is limited,
02:50it means there is still a demand in the market,
02:52which means the market is still hunting for good Samsung,
02:55especially Samsung, which usually does window dressing every year by fund managers.
03:00If we look at Samsung, BMN, and Finance,
03:04which are the drivers, especially from the Barito Group,
03:07with the issue of dividing dividends,
03:09I think it will also give momentum.
03:12So tomorrow, our index will still be in the range of 7250 to 7350,
03:18which can still be able to run the data without failure, tomorrow night.
03:23Mr. Andri said earlier that the BUMN shares,
03:26especially from Big Cap Banking, will become the driving force later.
03:30It means there is hope that Big Cap Banking will increase significantly
03:35in the momentum of window dressing this year.
03:37But in the last few days, Samsung, Big Cap Banking,
03:40it seems that investors are more in the direction of trading, sir.
03:44Significantly increase, then the correction is quite deep,
03:47quite fast, quite short.
03:50When will this momentum continue?
03:53When the window dressing has begun to be seen,
03:56will the pattern change later, Mr. Andri?
04:00Yes, if you look at AstroCycle,
04:02Astrology Cycle,
04:05if you look at the time momentum or market timing,
04:09it should be bad until tomorrow.
04:12It will be good again next month.
04:14So if we want to buy again for the second phase,
04:16it means between tomorrow, if there is a decline,
04:19hold until next week, go to the Fed,
04:21on December 18th.
04:23So it usually happens every year.
04:26If the window dressing is short, it should take a rebound
04:29because our index has also oversold.
04:31Oversold because there are many Samsung that have
04:34corrected more than 10-20% of the high record.
04:37This is also benefited by foreign investors,
04:41especially domestic investors,
04:42especially we see the new momentum from the IPO.
04:45IPO ADI can still work on top again tomorrow,
04:48later on the 16th, if there is a Master Day,
04:51IPO, so the liquidity is also on the index,
04:54I think it can still be good for tomorrow.
04:57But remember, this is a temporary increase,
05:00at the end of the year, our index may not be bottom,
05:02so if the window dressing is short, there is a rebound,
05:04but for the mid-term, our index is not bottom,
05:06it can still be made to 7,000.
05:07Okay, let's go to the next Big Cap Bank, Mr. Andri.
05:10Today, actually, the most pressing is
05:13Bank Himbara BUMN stocks.
05:15But for BBCA, today it is strong,
05:18strong at 1%, above 1%,
05:21and has returned to level 10,300.
05:24Analysis and recommendations for BBCA?
05:28Yes, for BBCA, we can see that it has already broken new high,
05:31break resistance.
05:32The break resistance here is also 10,250,
05:35the target here can reach 10,650,
05:38there is a gap of 10,800.
05:43So the highest was close to 11,000.
05:46So it means, it's still leading for our index
05:49to be able to reach, to raise,
05:52can be above 7,450 and can also reach 7,600
05:55with BCA, because BCA is one.
05:58So I think tomorrow it can still go up,
06:00because here the momentum is still bullish,
06:02the indicator is the Golden Cross,
06:04the MACD, the daily,
06:06so it can be used for trading,
06:09for tomorrow, it can also reach 7,600-7,850 next month.
06:12But remember, for the mid-term,
06:14I think BCA can still drop below 10,000 again.
06:18Okay, the limited weakness today,
06:20is it also supported by BBCA?
06:23Yes, if you look at it, BBCA still provides support,
06:27in addition to the brand.
06:29So these two are the biggest market cap,
06:33so because it is supported by the dividend issue,
06:36maybe later BCA will also have a dividend.
06:39So I think this momentum,
06:41the window dressing ahead of the Fed meeting
06:43on February 18th, December 18th,
06:46I think it can still give momentum
06:49for the index and also the currency.
06:52Okay, let's move on to other big cap banks for the BBRI.
06:55Coincidentally, there is also a question
06:57on our interactive WhatsApp from Mr. Malvin Sihite,
07:00asking if the BBRI stock wants to average down to 4,100,
07:05is there still a chance for the next one?
07:09I will try to read,
07:11this is quite far, at 4,900 for the BBRI.
07:16Yes, for the BBRI, if it is to average,
07:18I think it's better to wait below 4,090 like yesterday.
07:22Because the C5 version is not finished yet,
07:25there will be another scale,
07:27maybe the risk is between 3,800 to 4,090.
07:31But for the short term,
07:33I think the risk can still be between 4,170 to 4,450,
07:37the risk breakout.
07:39So if it's 4,900, I think it can be achieved later,
07:42maybe not this month,
07:45but if you look at it,
07:47we are waiting for the momentum in the effect genre,
07:49so in January 2025.
07:51Okay.
07:52Outside of the big cap banks,
07:54someone also asked about the BRIS stock,
07:56Mr. Wijang from Riau,
07:58has it taken a position for BRIS at 2,950, sir?
08:04Still a profit, but it's getting thinner.
08:06Analysis and recommendations,
08:08is it still in the CLD Hall,
08:10and how much support can be allocated
08:12to minimize the loss that occurs?
08:15Yes, for BRIS, it's the same.
08:17In general, the finance sector should be the one to take the lead,
08:20because the finance sector is the largest stock in our index.
08:24It makes up 30% of our index,
08:26so if our index wants to go up,
08:28in high scale, it must be financed.
08:30So because BRIS is the same,
08:32it's much better than BRI.
08:34So actually, if we want a trading strategy,
08:37it's better to have BRI, it's better to have SWIFT.
08:39It must also have hedging,
08:41or protect the value of the BRIS stock.
08:43Here, there is a bull flag pattern,
08:45which means it can still go up.
08:47Our target here can still be 3,100
08:49up to 3,250.
08:51In the short term,
08:53the support is below 2,900
08:55up to 2,700 here.
08:57So, from the momentum indicator,
09:00and also from the BRIS cycle,
09:02it's much better than the BRI index.
09:05So we can hold for the target of 3,100
09:07up to 3,250
09:09for indexing,
09:12Okay.
09:13Can you repeat the support, sir?
09:15Because it took its position at 2,950.
09:17Today's closing is still at 2,970.
09:20The strong support, actually,
09:22the low yesterday was 2,830
09:24up to 2,700.
09:27Okay. Analysis for BRIS today
09:29is also pressed at 1%, 2,970.
09:31At the same time, answering the question
09:33from Mr. Wijang from Riau,
09:35it's still in the hold,
09:37with the next resistance potential at 3,100
09:39up to 3,250.
09:42Let's move on to the energy sector,
09:44Mr. Andri.
09:46Today, it's also enough
09:48to draw the attention of investors.
09:50There is AADI, sir.
09:52Today, it was recorded in the Indonesia EFFICT Stock Exchange.
09:54The over-subscribed is also quite high.
09:56The enthusiasm of investors
09:58is also quite high.
10:00It was even recorded as an auto-reject.
10:02For AADI,
10:04it was closed at 6,650
10:06from the offer price at 5,550.
10:08From your analysis,
10:10how do you see the prospects
10:12of AADI?
10:15AADI is actually good.
10:17Mentally, it's good.
10:19From the pair, it's only twice,
10:21up to the position, it's less than once.
10:23It also means in terms of fun
10:25and also maintaining, it's good.
10:27Indeed, when the early start
10:29and also in terms of racing,
10:31racing is coming in,
10:33plus the enthusiasm,
10:35the IPO of AADI
10:37is 7.38 times.
10:39It's quite far.
10:41It's safe, but I think tomorrow
10:43it can still be auto-rejected again,
10:457,975, the target,
10:47and also the next one later
10:49at 9,200.
10:51I think it can still be auto-rejected again.
10:53So, as long as
10:55today's liquidity is still maintained,
10:57like now,
10:59it can probably
11:01be auto-rejected again,
11:03and even if it continues later,
11:05it can be up to 11,450.
11:07So, I think it can still be
11:09auto-rejected again, 2-3 times.
11:11If you look at the liquidity,
11:13it's still maintained
11:15with low volume like this.
11:17Okay, what is the strategy, sir?
11:19By filing an auto-reject,
11:21the purchase queue can be ensured
11:23that it is very high and exploding.
11:25For investors who just
11:27want to participate, sir?
11:30I think for retail, it's a bit difficult.
11:32Because it must be 2-3 times,
11:34up to 1,500, up to 11,000,
11:36or even to the fundamental target
11:38of 19,000.
11:40I think it's a bit difficult,
11:42because it's auto-rejected at the same time as the brand.
11:448,800,
11:46just buy the feed,
11:48just the crowd, the liquidity
11:50is at 2,300, 2,800.
11:52If it's auto-rejected, it will go up
11:54from 4,400.
11:56It's difficult.
11:58If you want to enter,
12:00wait until it's stable first.
12:02When the crowd is not auto-rejected,
12:04it's stable, then we can enter.
12:06Because I'm afraid that next week,
12:08even if there is an increase,
12:10there will be a profit taking.
12:12So maybe every time there is a profit taking,
12:14it can be used to buy AAD.
12:16Before we break, Mr. Andri,
12:18I have a question, but just briefly, sir.
12:20Regarding its relationship with Adaro Mineral,
12:22today it is stronger than 3%,
12:24while Adaro today
12:26experienced quite a deep correction,
12:28even though it rose high
12:30in the first session this morning.
12:34Actually, ADMR itself,
12:36this mineral,
12:38is actually quite cheap,
12:40just above 3,000.
12:42Now with the price out there,
12:44it has a discount of almost 70%.
12:46The most interesting thing is
12:48for the more liquid,
12:50it's better to go to ADMR.
12:52Many who are not part of
12:54ADMR, they switch their funds
12:56to cheap ADMR.
12:58Meanwhile,
13:00if Adaro rises, it's normal,
13:02because it was rebounded from the
13:04previous year, 2070,
13:06but yesterday it rose 2%.
13:08So I think the profit taking market
13:10in Adaro,
13:12entering ADMR,
13:14maybe waiting to enter ADI again
13:16if there is an opportunity.
13:18Analysis from ADI shareholders
13:20then also correlates
13:22with Adaro, then also ADMR,
13:24and hopefully it can be one of
13:26references for you.
13:28Mr. Andri, we will be back soon,
13:30we will try to see what Samsung clients
13:32are recommended, and at the same time
13:34we will update the closing position
13:36of the second session today.
13:38We will be back in a moment.