Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) manufaktur Indonesia masih menunjukkan posisi kontraksi pada level 49,6. Hal ini menunjukkan Indonesia telah mengalami kontraksi industri selama lima bulan beruntun sejak Juli 2024.
Juru Bicara Kemenperin, Febri Hendri Antoni Arief, mengatakan terjadinya kontraksi ini dikarenakan kebijakan maupun regulasi yang dibuat oleh Pemerintah masih belum mendukung pertumbuhan industri dalam negeri. “Masih banyak regulasi yang belum mendukung industri dalam negeri, padahal regulasi tersebut dibutuhkan oleh manufaktur,” ujar Febri dikutip Senin, 2 Desember 2024.
Selain itu, gempuran produk jadi impor, baik legal maupun ilegal, ditengarai masih menjadi penyebab kontraksinya PMI manufaktur Indonesia pada November kemarin. Hal ini, kata Febri, juga dipengaruhi oleh pemberlakuan kebijakan relaksasi impor.
Juru Bicara Kemenperin, Febri Hendri Antoni Arief, mengatakan terjadinya kontraksi ini dikarenakan kebijakan maupun regulasi yang dibuat oleh Pemerintah masih belum mendukung pertumbuhan industri dalam negeri. “Masih banyak regulasi yang belum mendukung industri dalam negeri, padahal regulasi tersebut dibutuhkan oleh manufaktur,” ujar Febri dikutip Senin, 2 Desember 2024.
Selain itu, gempuran produk jadi impor, baik legal maupun ilegal, ditengarai masih menjadi penyebab kontraksinya PMI manufaktur Indonesia pada November kemarin. Hal ini, kata Febri, juga dipengaruhi oleh pemberlakuan kebijakan relaksasi impor.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Purchasing Managers Index in November was recorded at 49.6 points, and based on the release of S&P Global,
00:10Indonesia's PMI score rose by 0.4 percent compared to October 2024, which reached 49.6 points.
00:20Indonesia's manufacturing activities have not yet risen and have again undergone a contraction in November 2024.
00:30This contraction extends the manufacturing correction period of REI to five months.
00:36Indonesia's Purchasing Managers Index in November was recorded at 49.6 points, and based on the release of S&P Global,
00:46Indonesia's PMI score rose by 0.4 percent compared to October 2024, which reached 49.6 points, and based on the release of S&P Global,
00:56Indonesia's PMI score rose by 0.4 percent compared to October 2024, which reached 49.6 points, and based on the release of S&P Global,
01:06Indonesia has experienced a contraction for five months in a row, which was July 49.3, August 48.9, September 49.2, October 49.2, and November 2024 at 49.6.
01:22This five-month contraction confirms the fact that the manufacturing condition of REI is in a very bad position.
01:30However, Indonesia's PMI score is better recorded than other Asian countries, such as Malaysia and Vietnam, which experienced a decrease from the previous months of 0.3 and 0.4.
01:43According to the spokesman for the Ministry of Industry, Febri Henry Anthony Arim, this increase in Indonesia's PMI score is more due to the resilience of the domestic manufacturing industry.
01:56As information, the PMI status that has been contracted has happened in a row for five times since July 2024.
02:04Commentators say the shortage of imported products, both legal and illegal, is still the cause of the contraction.
02:11As a result, the domestic market is flooded with imported products and has suppressed demand for products from the domestic industry.
02:26Yes, the Prime Minister will discuss our topic this time.
02:29An effective strategy to boost the performance of the Indonesian manufacturing sector.
02:33We have connected via Zoom with Mr. Ajip Hamdani.
02:36He is an economic policy analyst from the Indonesian Entrepreneurs Association, APIDO.
02:40Hello, Mr. Ajip, how are you?
02:42Very good and always healthy, Mr. Prahas.
02:44Okay, thank you for your time.
02:46And there is also Mr. Arieudp Irhamna, he is an in-depth economist.
02:50Hello, Mr. Arieudp, how are you?
02:53Hello, Mr. Prahas, how are you?
02:55Very good, thank you for your time.
02:57We will first review this related to the perspective of the world of APIDO's business.
03:02How do you see Indonesia's industrial manufacturing climate has reached which point at the moment, Mr. Ajip?
03:10Yes, Mr. Prahas, if we look at the economic indicators, including PMI manufacturing that continues to show construction,
03:17this is consistent with how Indonesia's economic growth has been declining.
03:22And even if we look at where the third quarter was below 5%,
03:26far below our target of 5.2% in the near future.
03:31But the point is that the world of business is indeed looking at how these government policies,
03:36meanwhile, are lacking in the industry sector, manufacturing, and also the world of business.
03:42If we look at the PMI manufacturing that is experiencing construction,
03:47if it is experiencing construction, it means that it is below 50%, Mr. Prahas.
03:50Our hope is that the world of business can continue to grow to an expansive level above 50%.
03:55There are several indicators that we see and capture on the ground.
03:59One side talks about the supply, the other side talks about the demand, Mr. Prahas.
04:04If we look at the supply side, from the private sector side, from the industry side,
04:10the industry sector cannot grow naturally,
04:13and needs intervention in the form of regulation from the government,
04:17so that we have a good level of resilience,
04:20we have maximum momentum for economic growth in the world of industry, Mr. Prahas.
04:26If we look at, for example, the regulations that are less pro with production efficiency,
04:32because we are talking about supply, we are talking about production,
04:37of course, it is inseparable from the competition.
04:40How is the production efficiency, how can our production be maximum and so on,
04:45so that when we compare it with imported goods, for example,
04:50then we have good competition.
04:52The problem is when this regulation is less pro with the increase in production efficiency,
04:58then the end result of a goods and services product produced by the domestic industry
05:03is less competitive.
05:05So then there will be other problems,
05:08such as how imported goods will enter Indonesia,
05:11and these imported goods, some are legal, some are illegal.
05:16Okay.
05:17In the legal context,
05:19Indonesian regulations are also less pro with the world of domestic industry.
05:24For example, how our trade policy steps are less pro.
05:28For example, how we limit the flow of goods from outside to inside, for example.
05:34It is recorded in our records that there are only about 207 types of instruments
05:38to limit the flow of goods from outside to inside.
05:42It is very different from other Asian countries,
05:45even in Asian countries, they can average more than 1,000 types of instruments
05:49to limit the flow of goods from outside.
05:52This is the legal issue.
05:54We haven't talked about the illegal issue that enters the country.
05:57If the context of the illegal goods enters,
05:59it will be more damaging to the condition of the industry
06:02because they have a high efficiency, they don't want to pay taxes, etc.
06:06I think on that side, a legal enforcement from the government is needed.
06:11So this is the complexity of the problem, Mr. Pras.
06:13But the conclusion is,
06:15first, the regulation must be pro with the world of industry.
06:18Second, how the imported goods are handled properly.
06:22First, how the illegal imported goods are handled properly.
06:25In the context of the issue of trade measure,
06:29a step-by-step limitation of imports,
06:32and the context for illegal imports is limited by legal enforcement steps.
06:36The Ministry of Trade and Taxation in the Ministry of Finance
06:40plays a very central role here.
06:42And finally, how the sector or the demand side must be handled properly.
06:49We have a lot of notes when it comes to demand.
06:52Because there are a lot of government policies
06:54that will put pressure on the people's economy.
06:58For example, talking about the potential increase in the PPM rate to 12%,
07:03even though the narrative is only for luxury goods and so on.
07:06But this has not been clearly defined by the government.
07:09It means that issues and policies like this
07:13are very bad for the demand side of the people's economy.
07:17So, Mr. Pras, the supply and demand side must be handled properly by the government.
07:21Yes, there was a regulation that must be pro regarding the efficiency of production,
07:25then how we limit the legal or illegal imported goods,
07:29and also how to maintain the supply and demand itself.
07:33Mr. Ariel, what do you see from this side,
07:36the Indonesian manufacturing sector,
07:38if we relate it to the recovery of the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic?
07:42Are we actually on the track?
07:44Or are there more challenges right now,
07:47both domestically and globally?
07:51Thank you, Mr. Pras.
07:52So, if we talk about manufacturing,
07:55as has been said by many economists and entrepreneurs,
08:00our industry is indeed poor,
08:03the foundation is weak,
08:06so many say deindustrialization,
08:09not just many people say,
08:12we are experiencing deindustrialization,
08:14which means that the support for economic growth,
08:17sorry, the support for manufacturing for economic growth,
08:20this has been long before it developed, something like that.
08:23Okay.
08:24And it has been developed a lot by the service sector.
08:27So, the manufacturing sector is not ripe yet,
08:30but it has fallen first before it continues to grow.
08:35Now, why can this happen, in my opinion,
08:38it can happen because so far,
08:41industrial policies
08:46are not very strong to build manufacturing growth foundations.
08:53What are those manufacturing foundations?
08:55So, one of the manufacturing sector foundations is technology development.
09:00Manufacturing is definitely a production process
09:03from raw materials to finished goods or semi-finished goods.
09:07It requires technology expertise.
09:10And in our industry,
09:12the manufacturing sector is not supported by technology.
09:17Okay.
09:18So, where are the sectors supported?
09:21In this manufacturing industry,
09:23the strongest is the food industry,
09:26an industry that does not require large-scale technology.
09:30And the policies are not directed to strengthen the technology for manufacturing.
09:35So, the policies are still limited to incentives,
09:39and the incentives are not directed to things to increase
09:43how this manufacturing company creates innovation.
09:47For example,
09:49the government has been pushing the battery industry for the last four years,
09:53and the government has also prepared to create BUMN,
09:56IBC, Indonesia Battery Corporation.
09:59But if we look at the development of IBC now,
10:01it becomes unclear.
10:03Whether IBC wants to be a manufacturing company
10:06or a company investment.
10:09Because all this time,
10:11the movement of IBC itself is more like an investment company.
10:17It's just mergers and acquisitions.
10:19So, it doesn't build its manufacturing power,
10:22it doesn't build its technology ecosystem.
10:24Because we know, if we talk about battery,
10:26this is definitely an industry-intensive technology.
10:30So, they have to have a lab for battery development.
10:33Now, the battery, for example, there is already SCP, MNC,
10:38in the future there will be the development of the latest battery.
10:41And that's what is needed by government support.
10:46Then, the second policy, in my opinion,
10:48which is very weak, is related to the industry area.
10:51So, since the last four years,
10:55the government has been talking a lot
10:57to build a lot of industry areas,
10:59or special economic zone, KIK.
11:02But the concept of the industry area or KIK itself
11:06is far from the ideal concept.
11:09One of them is related to location.
11:11Many KIK or KI locations are far from the port.
11:15Because the industry area and the special economic area
11:18are actually export-oriented.
11:21The best practice is in China.
11:23In fact, China itself studies in Batam.
11:25It's all integrated with the port.
11:27In fact, the KIK in China is very far from the port.
11:31There are many KIKs.
11:33But the government is still building a new industry area,
11:36even though there are many industry areas that are still empty.
11:39That's one, related to location.
11:41The second and the last, related to the industry area or KIK,
11:43is related to the government pushing the creation of this KIK,
11:50where the KIK is actually not ready for investors to enter,
11:54for tenants to enter.
11:56There is a press statement stating that
12:00the special economic area must build a basic infrastructure
12:04within three years.
12:05It means that the location of the industry area
12:08is not ready for the basic infrastructure.
12:12So, in my language, there are many KIKs.
12:14The KIK was born prematurely.
12:16It's still raw, right?
12:18Yes, so when the KIK is ready,
12:20the government has already promoted it for investors to enter.
12:22But when potential investors enter,
12:25for example, the road is not ready yet,
12:27then the other rental infrastructure is not ready yet.
12:31So, it's premature.
12:34So, in my language,
12:36there is something wrong in the business management
12:39of the industry area and the special economic area.
12:42In this area, the approach is like a business property.
12:45So, it should be prepared first,
12:48the basic infrastructure,
12:49then invite investors.
12:50If it's a property,
12:51someone sells it first,
12:52one unit at home,
12:53then it's built.
12:54If it's an industry, it's not like that.
12:55It has to be prepared first,
12:56then invite investors.
12:57Infrastructure.
12:58As a note from IDF,
12:59we will see what the strategy is like.
13:01According to our PMI manufacturer,
13:03it tends to go down in the last few months.
13:05It has left the level of expansion
13:07and entered the category of contraction.
13:09We will discuss later in the next segment.
13:10We will pause for a moment.
13:11And viewers, make sure you are still with us.
13:15PMI Manufaktur Indonesia
13:23You are still watching Market Review.
13:25In the next segment,
13:26we will present data related to
13:28the movement of PMI Manufaktur Indonesia.
13:31We will discuss together
13:32from June to November 2024.
13:36In June, we are still at the level of expansion of 50.7.
13:40Then in July, August, September,
13:43October to November,
13:44we are already at the level of 50 points.
13:46Or last in 49.6 points.
13:49There is indeed an increase
13:50compared to October 2024.
13:52And next, we will see the realization of investment.
13:55Data from 2014 to 2023.
13:59The tendency is positive, it keeps going up.
14:03As you can see on your TV screen.
14:07Okay, last in 2023,
14:10we have reached 1,418.9 trillion rupiah.
14:14That is for the movement of investment in Indonesia.
14:21And next, we will look at economic growth.
14:23From 2014 to 2023.
14:26In 2020, there was a COVID-19 pandemic.
14:31As a result, our growth was negative 2.07%.
14:34Then it jumped 3.7% in 2021.
14:38In 2022, 5.31%.
14:40Then in 2023, 5.05%.
14:44Okay, we will continue again.
14:46Discussing with Mr. Ajib Amdani and Mr. Ariel Irhamna from Indef.
14:50Okay.
14:51We will discuss with some of the data that has been provided.
14:55There were quite a few.
14:57Some notes related to infrastructure,
14:59preparedness in special economic areas.
15:02Then Mr. Ajib is more on the regulatory side.
15:05So, Mr. Ajib, what if we look at
15:07some of the challenges earlier,
15:09both fundamentally or still in progress to be handled,
15:14related to the movement of PMI, Indonesia's Manufacturing, in the future?
15:19Okay, Mr. Pras.
15:20Before that, I will take from Mr. Ariel's point of view.
15:22There was something interesting about
15:24how Mr. Ariel also mentioned about deindustrialization.
15:28Because if we look at it,
15:30there is indeed a trend of deindustrialization.
15:33This means that the industry's contribution to GDP
15:37or the GDP is decreasing.
15:40And it is supported by the data that shows that
15:43our contribution is on average 5 times less than 20%.
15:48Whereas on the one hand, the government should be pushing
15:51the industry to be able to employ more workers.
15:55Because one of the problems in Indonesia
15:57that makes it difficult for us to make a leap towards gold Indonesia,
16:01towards a developed country,
16:03is because our unemployment is still very high.
16:06More than 7 million people
16:09are in the definition and category of open unemployment.
16:12The government should be pushing the industry
16:15so that they can be the main instrument to employ workers.
16:19The problem, Mr. Pras, is that
16:21the government has pushed this basic idea
16:25with its technical regulations.
16:27This is what we have not seen yet, Mr. Pras.
16:29The government has not consistently pushed regulations
16:31that are in line with the growth of the industry.
16:33The government has not pushed regulations
16:36that are in line with the manufacturing sector, for example.
16:38And especially, the government cannot push policies
16:42that can sustain and support the people's GDP.
16:45As an example, the main problem of the industry,
16:47why we are not in agreement,
16:49is because we are talking about efficiency, productivity,
16:52and we are talking about the HPP,
16:54or the high price of our sales.
16:56Regulations about the production variables,
17:01for example, in the labor variables.
17:03When the government issues regulations
17:05about the minimum wage, for example,
17:07they do not hear the voice of the entrepreneurs.
17:09Even though the entrepreneurs are seeing
17:11what is really going on in the field,
17:13the entrepreneurs are already considering
17:14how a difficult policy
17:16affects the success of the business, for example.
17:18Even the latest phenomenon,
17:20the increase in the UMP rate, for example,
17:22of 6.5%, is not ideal.
17:24This will become a problem
17:26for the entrepreneurs to expand
17:28and absorb more labor, for example.
17:30Then the other production sectors,
17:32for example, the price of natural gas, for example,
17:36should be developed more
17:38by the manufacturing sectors that are strategic,
17:41manufacturing sectors that can absorb more labor.
17:44This is our main point, Mr. Kraus.
17:47The point is, how then, once again,
17:49the government must be able to push the existing regulations.
17:52This is just the supply side.
17:54Yes, from the entrepreneurial side.
17:56What is equally important is
17:58when the government can push the regulations,
18:01push the regulations that make production efficiency,
18:04because the goods and services
18:06produced by the industry in Indonesia, once again,
18:08must have competitive power
18:10against other products from outside.
18:12Then the other side is talking about purchasing power.
18:14And purchasing power in Indonesia is facing
18:16a fairly serious problem
18:17during the COVID-19 pandemic yesterday.
18:19When we haven't finished the scaring effect,
18:22the government must support it with regulations
18:24that can push for purchasing power.
18:26But the policies are pushed,
18:28for example, with the existence of
18:30our high-class population,
18:32monetary policies that tend to lack support,
18:35then even the fiscal aspect too.
18:38In short, the government is stubborn
18:40and forced to raise the PPN rate
18:42even with the narration of luxury goods.
18:44Because there is no definition of luxury goods in the PPN.
18:47In the PPN, there are only two,
18:48PPN in general,
18:49or if there is a luxury goods,
18:50there is an instrument called PPN-BN, for example.
18:52This makes people confused.
18:55It makes people confused, including in the business world.
18:57Business owners are also asking,
18:59there is no definition of luxury goods
19:01in the current PPN context.
19:03Conditions like this
19:04that make it counterproductive
19:06to purchasing power on the one hand
19:08and also the business world, Mr. Pras.
19:10So I hope the business world once again,
19:12the government is consistent.
19:13When they want to push us to move forward in Indonesia,
19:16the government must reduce the unemployment rate.
19:19And the unemployment rate can only be significantly reduced
19:22if the government can push the industry sector
19:25to grow more
19:26and contribute more
19:28to our economic growth in general.
19:32And once again,
19:33the 20% figure is not ideal.
19:35The industry should support GDP as a whole,
19:38as an aggregate, above 20%.
19:40These are the points that draw the attention of the business world.
19:42We always give the best input to the government, Mr. Pras.
19:45But the point is,
19:47will the government listen
19:50and design the rules
19:52according to the conditions on the ground?
19:54If the government only closes its eyes
19:56to push the regulation
19:58and does not listen to the entrepreneurs,
20:00then the challenge is that the business world
20:02will be difficult to grow
20:03and construction in the context of PNM,
20:06manufacturers like this,
20:08this is just one example indicator.
20:10There are still many other macroeconomic indicators
20:12that show that the business world
20:14in Indonesia is not growing ideally.
20:17We have a much greater potential than that,
20:19but it comes from the government.
20:21And that is our big hope, Mr. Pras.
20:22Okay, Mr. Jep.
20:23This is interesting.
20:24If we talk about deindustrialization,
20:25then, Mr. Aryo,
20:26if you have already mentioned
20:28the situation of deindustrialization,
20:29then how is the infrastructure of the economic sector
20:32especially when it is not yet optimal,
20:35how is it?
20:36Is it related to the potential of deindustrialization
20:39is also closely related to Indonesia's PMI
20:41which fell in the last few months?
20:45Yes, okay.
20:46So, the condition of deindustrialization
20:49has been going on for two decades.
20:52And no one has managed
20:56to handle the impact of GDP growth.
21:01Why?
21:03Because the industrial policy design
21:05was not designed to strengthen the foundation.
21:08So, it's like a patchwork
21:12of policies that have been implemented
21:14by the government
21:15does not strengthen the foundation
21:17of our manufacturing industry.
21:19What did I say earlier?
21:21The technological innovation
21:23is not supported strongly.
21:26Then the second one is related to regional policy.
21:29Because this is important
21:31because we know that this manufacturer
21:33is an industry that,
21:36as Mr. Jep said earlier,
21:37involves a lot of workers
21:39and also means high capital intensive.
21:42So, the policy of the industrial sector
21:46and this company
21:47really had to reduce
21:49the cost of manufacturing business.
21:51That's why the location is close
21:53to the main ports,
21:54the big ports.
21:55So, it reduces logistical costs.
21:57While now, only a few,
21:59except for those that have been around for a long time.
22:02And it's already good.
22:03There are dry ports too.
22:05It's enough to reduce logistical costs.
22:07There are a lot of new industrial areas
22:09that have been built by the government.
22:11Not only industrial areas,
22:12but also special economic areas.
22:16In my opinion, it's the same.
22:18It doesn't pay attention
22:20to the geographical location.
22:22Why?
22:23Because the policies of the industrial sector
22:26and the special economic areas
22:28have a very strong political influence.
22:30So, a lot of regional governments
22:32are likely to build industrial areas
22:34and special economic areas.
22:36If there is an economic area,
22:38investors will come.
22:40It's not like that.
22:42So, the location is very decisive.
22:45Investors will ask,
22:46where is the location?
22:47They will check the distance from the port.
22:49Because they already think
22:51when they want to invest in manufacturing,
22:53if the sector is in manufacturing,
22:55they will prioritize
22:58choosing a location close to the port.
23:00Because the orientation is directly to export.
23:03Unless,
23:05the actions to distribute to domestic
23:08may not happen.
23:10But the government should direct
23:12this manufacturing sector
23:13to export.
23:14And as I said earlier,
23:16this special economic area
23:18was born prematurely.
23:20Because when they have established
23:23the status quo,
23:25they were given three years
23:27to build the basic infrastructure area.
23:30It means that when they get
23:32the status quo,
23:34they are not ready yet.
23:35It's just a matter of administration.
23:37And the government has already evaluated
23:40the status quo.
23:42Actually, a lot of them
23:44have been removed.
23:45But because I said earlier
23:47that the political nuance is very strong,
23:49only a few,
23:50as far as I know,
23:51only one or two have been removed.
23:52Because the basic infrastructure area
23:54has not been built.
23:55Okay, that's it.
23:56Again, if we talk about
23:58the need for supporting infrastructure
24:00from the Indonesian area
24:01or the special economic area,
24:02Mr. Ajib, in short,
24:03what is the last hope
24:04from entrepreneurs
24:05to be able to revive
24:06the Indonesian manufacturing sector
24:08that must be done by the government?
24:10In short, sir.
24:11Yes, the government must encourage regulation
24:13to be the best incentive
24:15and the fit,
24:16the right target
24:17for the growth of the Indonesian industry,
24:21the manufacturing sector,
24:22as well as the purchasing power of the community.
24:24Including the permission,
24:25Mr. Kras also commented a little.
24:27Earlier, there was data
24:28that our investment was always over-targeted.
24:30But why is our economic growth
24:32always stuck?
24:33Because the value of our economy is also high.
24:35So this is an indicator
24:37that becomes the government's PR
24:38that there is still a lack of
24:40pro-policies
24:41with economic growth.
24:42Ideally when,
24:43because the value of our economy
24:44is still above.
24:45No, Mr. Kras.
24:46So when,
24:47that's why Mr. Prabowo said
24:48to grow the economy by 8%,
24:50investment is needed
24:51no less than Rp13,500 trillion
24:53for the next five years.
24:54The point is, Mr. Kras,
24:55the government should be able
24:56to push the regulations,
24:58fiscal and monetary policies
25:00to support the people
25:02on one side,
25:03and on the other.
25:04It can encourage the growth
25:05of the Indonesian manufacturing sector
25:06and the world of industry,
25:07so that Indonesia can leap
25:09to a developing country.
25:10That's all, Mr. Kras.
25:11Okay, that's basically
25:12what entrepreneurs have given.
25:13So that later,
25:14collaboration,
25:15maybe yes,
25:16there can be a sharing session
25:17when entrepreneurs,
25:18business world,
25:19and also the government.
25:20So that there is a policy
25:21that is really pro-
25:22related to the development
25:23of the Indonesian manufacturing industry.
25:25Mr. Ajip, thank you very much
25:26for the information,
25:27the update that has been delivered.
25:28Mr. Aryo, thank you also
25:29for the analysis
25:30and the data
25:31that you have given
25:32to the audience today.
25:33Congratulations on continuing
25:34your activities again.
25:35Stay healthy.
25:36See you again.
25:37Thank you, Mr. Ajip,
25:38Mr. Aryo.
25:39Thank you, Mr. Kras.
25:41Thank you, Mr. Kras.
25:42All right, audience,
25:43I've been with you
25:44for an hour
25:45in Market Review
25:46and keep sharing
25:47your information
25:48only on IDX channel,
25:49Yotrasworthy
25:50and Comprehensive Investment
25:51Program.