- #Nifty, #Sensex close at record highs as #Fed rate cut boosts risk appetite
- Canada reduces study permits for international students
Tune in to 'Profit 360' with Nupur Talwar Suri for top news of the day. #NDTVProfitLive
- Canada reduces study permits for international students
Tune in to 'Profit 360' with Nupur Talwar Suri for top news of the day. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
00:00Benchmarks chair U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points, they did
00:23end flat after hitting record highs intraday.
00:29Can the rate cut by the U.S. Fed trigger a rate-cutting cycle by other central banks?
00:35Hong Kong's central bank cuts rates after four years and all eyes are on the Bank of
00:39Japan and the Bank of England's decision.
00:44Vodafone plummets 15% as the Supreme Court rejects pleas by telecom companies seeking
00:49recalculation of dues owed to the government.
00:54Labour ministry probes death of a 26-year-old chartered accountant, says it will look into
00:59the mother's allegation of an unsafe and exploitative work environment at EY.
01:07Canada cuts international study and work permits.
01:10Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says there will be a 35% fewer international student permits
01:15this year.
01:19New wave of explosions in Lebanon kill 20 and injure over 450 people as thousands of
01:24walkie-talkies explode in Hezbollah units across the country.
01:31And the British rock band Coldplay announces its India performance as a part of the music
01:35of The Spears' world tour in 2025.
01:38The
02:01markets hit record highs at open and closed higher despite pairing some of those gains
02:07as financial stocks provided support.
02:09Now, Harsh is joining us right now for a look at all the action that took place on the Lal
02:15Street.
02:16Harsh, take us through what's happened.
02:19Well, the Nifty 50 closed and went home with some gains in trade today, but that's hardly
02:26the reflection of what's happened in the overall market.
02:30So don't go by that number, 0.2% higher on the Nifty 50 and largely led by banks.
02:370.5% higher.
02:38Let's pull up the heat map, at least on the Nifty.
02:41Let's see which ones or which stocks essentially were gainers because the breadth of the market
02:47was weak, even though some recovery in the latter half of today.
02:51NTBC up around 2.4 odd percent, largely seeing traction because of NTBC Green's IPO getting
03:00a bit of a leg up.
03:02But you're seeing good traction both in FMCG as well as in banks.
03:06That's essentially what ruled the roost today.
03:09Auto also saw some good traction, Maruti, Bajaj, Hero among some of the gainers.
03:14In terms of the losers, well, you'll see more of the likes of BPCL, Coal India, ONGC, more
03:22of Power along with IT.
03:25That's what was the flavor in terms of the loser.
03:28Let's pull up the contributories for the day, RIL also contributing around 0.5% odd in terms
03:34of gains.
03:35Well, HDFC Bank, second day in a row, the top contributor on the Nifty.
03:40But along with it, NTBC, Kotak and Bharti also chipping in.
03:43L&T, TCS were some of the losers along with BPCL and Coal India in terms of contributories.
03:50Let's last off start looking at where the broader markets were, the advance decline
03:55ratio first off to give us an indication as to how that played out pretty much through
04:00the day.
04:01Let's look at the gaping in terms of the difference 3 is to 1 in favor of the declines.
04:07Let's also pull up where the mid cap and the small cap indices have closed in at 0.5% low
04:12on the Nifty mid cap.
04:13The small cap too saw some bit of selling 1% odd lower.
04:17But if we pull up the intraday chart for the Nifty mid cap, we saw a bit of a recovery
04:23towards the end of the day, which kind of leaves some bit of positivity, at least in
04:28trade.
04:30you see towards the FAG end.
04:33Last off, let's pull up the BSE 500 before we close it with some sectors.
04:38There you go.
04:39Those are some top gainers, losers.
04:41Vodafone Indus had their reasons of buzzing, IFL lower as well.
04:46In terms of gainers, KPR, Rainbow Medical, you also had Century Textiles doing well in
04:52trade.
04:53Let's last off pull off sectors, try and see which ones were buzzing.
04:58And banks did well.
04:59Of course, we spoke about that.
05:01But outside of that, we also saw some traction in Realty, Auto did well as well.
05:07Pharma, Metals, PSU Bank and Media were quite beaten in trade.
05:12All right.
05:13Now, the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates is expected to have a significant global
05:18repercussions.
05:19Now, experts on NDTV Profit explored the implications of the decision, particularly for India and
05:24other emerging markets.
05:29What you're going to see is emerging market rate cutting cycles broadening and picking
05:36up steam again.
05:38And so we're looking for many of these EMs to see scope to start cutting rates again
05:42without having to worry about those factors with the exchange rate and flows.
05:46And that includes EMs in Asia, where rate cuts have not really gotten started.
05:51But I think now that the Fed has started to move, that will open up scope for those economies
05:58to ease as well.
06:00So I think the Fed's move for EM means that some of those rate cutting cycles can start
06:05up again and new rate cutting cycles can start as well.
06:11It may not find its way immediately, right?
06:13There's going to be a recalibration based on what the Fed has just done, what the Fed's
06:17going to do, how that's going to impact the dollar and how it's going to impact the EM
06:23markets, right, the emerging markets, whether it's India, whether it's the other EM countries
06:27and what they do with their rates.
06:29And so I think we're going to have to watch and see how that happens.
06:31I don't think it's going to happen quickly or immediately.
06:33And to your point, a weaker dollar is going to make your products more expensive.
06:38And so therefore, if they don't bring that in line, then that differential is going to
06:43stick way out, is going to be probably a hindrance or a headwind to new money coming in.
06:49But if India and the other EM nations come down, they start to keep the differential
06:55the same.
06:56And so therefore, there doesn't end up being a big difference.
06:59Then I think, yes, there's more of a possibility that opportunity and money will come into
07:05places like India, which are very, very hot and actually very exciting at the moment in
07:10terms of opportunity and what's going on there in your markets, in your sectors.
07:16If you go back all the way to Paul Volcker, and if you see the kind of economy and the
07:23interest rate environment that was there until now, any quote unquote recession that has
07:27been Fed led, and this is what the Fed is trying to do, it's trying to cool down the
07:31economy by raising rates, has been very shallow and short lived.
07:35So I don't think people are going to be too fussed about this entire rate cut cycle in
07:40the US.
07:41The only thing is, what could it mean for India?
07:43My sense is this will put a little bit of pressure on the Reserve Bank of India.
07:46I think they'll have to move their stance to neutral in the next meeting that they have.
07:51And we were forecasting our first rate cut in India in February of next year.
07:56That may get probably advanced to maybe December's meeting this year.
07:59So I think all things considered, even that, we're expecting just about a 25 basis point.
08:03But I think the market will digest this and move on.
08:06Like I said, I think it's a culmination of sort of maybe being a little behind the curve
08:10and probably not being able to do another one before the election.
08:13So I think all things considered, we're okay.
08:17Well, but could the decision by the US Fed Reserve trigger rate cuts globally?
08:22Now Hong Kong's central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, lowered its interest rates
08:26after four years by half a percent.
08:28The Bank of Japan's decision is due tomorrow.
08:31And the Bank of England's rate decision, which is due later today, will also be very closely
08:35watched.
08:36And the Bank of England, of course, is set to maintain the policy rate at 5% compared
08:39to the Fed's new range of 4.75 to 5% after the cut.
08:44Well, moving on to the other big story we're tracking today.
08:47Now, the Supreme Court has rejected the plea of telecom operators seeking a recalculation
08:51of their AGR dues.
08:53AGR refers to the revenue earned by these companies from Spectrum and other non-telecom
08:58revenues.
08:59Now, the Chief Justice of India rejected the curative plea filed by Vodafone Idea, Bharti
09:04Airtel, and various other telecos.
09:07And Varun Gakhar is reporting on this and joins us now.
09:11Varun, a huge blow coming in for these telecom companies.
09:16Take us through what happened in court.
09:18That's right.
09:19So, a big setback for the telcos such as Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel, as the top court has
09:27rejected their curative pleas that were filed against the top court judgment, which came
09:31out in 2019, that held that while calculating these AGR dues, all these telcos will have
09:37to include their non-core revenues as well.
09:40Now, telecom operators had filed their curative petitions based on the premise that the Department
09:44of Telecommunications had made a grave error in the calculation of the AGR dues.
09:50And on top of that, the top court had imposed an arbitrary penalty on these telcos.
09:55Now, the curative plea was taken up by a three-judge bench led by the Chief Justice of India, D.
09:59Y. Chandrachud, on August 30 this year.
10:03And the order was made privy to us only in the morning.
10:06Now, let's understand what AGR is.
10:08AGR is basically a revenue-sharing mechanism between the telecom operators and between
10:14the Department of Telecommunications.
10:15Now, under this mechanism, the operators have to pay a certain spectrum usage fee and a
10:21licensing fee to the Department of Telecommunications.
10:23Now, how the DOT calculates this fee is by calculating it as a percentage of the AGR.
10:29However, what constituted AGR was under dispute since 2005.
10:33Now, in October 2019, the top court ended this 14-year-long battle and held that while
10:40calculating these AGR dues, the telcos will have to include the non-co-revenues as well.
10:45Now, the 2019 judgment was a big blow to all these telcos and specifically, Vodafone ID
10:51and Bharatiya Airtel were staring at dues worth more than 1 lakh crore.
10:54Now, since the curatives have been rejected, this seems like a final nail in the coffin
10:59in as much as any reconsideration in the AGR dues case is concerned.
11:03All right, Varun, thank you very much for joining us with all those details.
11:07Now, how much of a hit would Vodafone and Bharatiya Airtel take on the back of this
11:12judgment?
11:13Rusha Samaya from NDTV Profit joins in with the report.
11:18What are AGR dues?
11:19Well, these are the dues which are paid by the telecom companies to the government in
11:23return of using their spectrum license.
11:25Now, government calculates this on the basis of total revenue which includes revenue from
11:30telecom as well as non-telecom business.
11:33However, the telecom companies were really upset about this fact and they said that only
11:39revenue from telecom business should be included while calculating these dues and then they
11:45filed various petition and plea against this kind of move by the government to various
11:50authorities.
11:51The latest plea filed by Vodafone Idea was in October 23 and today the Supreme Court
11:57has rejected that plea and said that the telecom companies are required to pay the AGR dues.
12:03But then we will move on to the quantum of dues which are payable by Vodafone Idea, Bharatiya
12:09Airtel and Reliance Jio as well.
12:11By starting Vodafone Idea now, it owes around 70,300 crore of dues to the government.
12:17Bharatiya Airtel owes around 44,000 crore dues.
12:21Well, there is no major dues payable by Reliance Jio because it started in 2016 and has already
12:26paid their dues to the government.
12:28Now, moving on to the kind of cash that is lying on the balance sheet of these telecom
12:32companies, if we can move on to showing the cash, we will see that Vodafone Idea has around
12:37535 crore of cash and Bharatiya Airtel has 16,340 crore of cash.
12:43So, a huge sort of asset liability mismatch is seen over here but Bharatiya Airtel has
12:49lower dues than Vodafone Idea and higher sort of cash balance.
12:54So, Bharatiya Airtel is, you know, better positioned than Vodafone Idea and Vodafone
12:59will be hit the most because of the rejection of plea by the Supreme Court.
13:05But then let's look at the kind of timeline going back in 2005 and 6 when all this started
13:10where government took the decision of how AGR should be calculated and the telecom companies
13:15were upset and then in 2019, these telecom companies had filed a plea against this kind
13:21of decision taken by the government and even moving ahead in 2020 and 21, telecom companies,
13:30you know, filed the plea but then it was rejected and Bharatiya Airtel paid about 18,000 crore
13:36of dues and Vodafone Idea paid about 7,800 crore of dues to the government.
13:42But as I rightly mentioned, in October 23, Vodafone again filed a plea which was rejected
13:47by the Supreme Court today.
13:48So, all in all, just concluding, number one is that telecom companies will have to pay
13:53these dues to the government and number two is that Vodafone Idea will be hit the most
13:57because of its huge asset liability mismatch over here.
14:00All right, Arucha, thank you very much for that and joining us for more on this is our
14:07Satyan N. Gupta.
14:08He is the ex-principal advisor at Tri and H.P. Ranina, he is a lawyer at the Supreme
14:13Court.
14:14Good evening, both of you.
14:15Thank you very much for joining in.
14:16Mr. Gupta, to you first.
14:18Mr. Gupta, this is a huge blow to both Vodafone and Airtel but more so for Vodafone.
14:25It is already besieged by a lot of financial trouble.
14:29Now, this essentially could sound the death knell for them.
14:35Not exactly Nupur, yes, it is a big blow for them who are already under big stress
14:41but this actually, if it is wrong or if it is unjustice, it can be undone also, though
14:49the Supreme Court have rejected the plea itself but actually in India, we have two pillars
14:56of what we call democracy, the judiciary which is supreme and then the government, actually
15:02the government can also help if they are convinced that there is something unjustice
15:08is being done.
15:10If you remember Justice Bhagwati, the old Chief Justice, in one judgment he told to
15:15a lawyer that gentlemen, this is a court of law, not court of justice.
15:23So Supreme Court have done whatever they could do as per the law but there is a concept called
15:29natural justice, the natural justice can be actually, you can say, implemented or can
15:37be used by the government through different means.
15:41If government believes that there is an error, there is an arithmetic calculation error which
15:48is genuine, you know, actually there is a saying called EOE, error and omission accepted
15:56and that is a famous actually clause which is used in most of the invoices, even the
16:01government invoices also normally have that.
16:04So if that is the case, the government's suo moto actually can have a relook on the calculations,
16:12they can make use of some experts, they can make use of some independent accountant, independent
16:18auditors and they can have a look on the calculations and if it is found there was a genuine mistake
16:26under EOE, they can actually suo moto, return the overpayment made by these telcos.
16:33So it is more than a case by law.
16:35So Mr. Gupta, you still believe that there could be a way out for these companies, particularly
16:40Vodafone because, you know, in case this hit is too hard for them to digest, we could be
16:47creating a duopoly sort of a situation, I am going to go across to Mr. Ranina on this
16:51one.
16:52Obviously legally, you know, this marks an end of the road as far as the AGR dues bit
16:58is concerned.
16:59But as Mr. Gupta was pointing out, do you think that the government may now, you know,
17:03look at perhaps an intervention from their side?
17:05Yeah, Nupur, I think Mr. Gupta is right, but if they make a recalculation, that recalculation
17:12will have to be made for all the telecom companies, not only for Vodafone.
17:17So it is entirely the choice of the government to give some relief if they so wish, but that
17:22it will benefit everybody else.
17:25But they have a 10-year period to pay the amount.
17:28And ultimately Vodafone was aware of this.
17:31And as I was interviewed last year, I mentioned that there is no point in going for a curative
17:37petition because there's nothing wrong or illegal which the Supreme Court has done.
17:43And therefore the petition was bound to be rejected.
17:46So they were aware of the consequences.
17:48Merely going on a curative petition doesn't help them.
17:51But they will now have to get the money.
17:54If they don't have the money, as has been pointed out earlier, then Vodafone UK or Netherlands
18:02will have to bring in the money as a promoter and pay the dues.
18:06There is no other solution.
18:07They will have to pay.
18:08There may be some relief in terms of recalculation, but that's a separate issue.
18:13Otherwise the amount finally decided will have to be paid.
18:16Right, Mr. Ranina, so as you're pointing out, you know, even if there's some relief in terms
18:20of recalculation, it won't be a very huge amount.
18:23So as far as the dues remain right now, and they're about 70,300 crore rupees for Vodafone
18:29in particular, those will have to be paid.
18:32Is that correct?
18:33Right.
18:34Absolutely right.
18:35There's no way you can get away with it.
18:38So the promoters will have to bring in funds if they don't have enough money.
18:42That's the only solution.
18:43All right.
18:44Mr. Gupta, coming back to you now, how do you see this impacting Vodafone's debt raising
18:50plan since, you know, that debt fundraise was going to be very crucial for the company's
18:55survival itself?
18:56No, Nupur actually, it will not, it is not new as our lawyer friend have told.
19:04It was known.
19:05It was known to the institution.
19:06It was known to the banks also, and everything has been disclosed by Vodafone.
19:11So it is not anything surprise to the lender or to the investors.
19:16That is for sure.
19:17But I will still say there is a way out that there is something called a law of arbitration.
19:23Actually, sometime the bilateral like here, the government and the operators or one operator,
19:29any operator who have really a strong case.
19:33So they can go for arbitration also actually, which can run parallel to the judicial process.
19:40And I've seen a lot of arbitration cases decided actually as per the fact, as per the natural
19:47justice, as I mentioned.
19:49And there is a way out.
19:50And the volume as far as Vodafone is concerned, actually is quite high when they have made
19:56the plea.
19:57Actually, it's quite high.
19:58It will be a big relief because the total 70,000 crore need not to be paid, as our friend
20:06lawyer also mentioned, in one go.
20:10It is in 10 annual installments.
20:12So if they can get relief equivalent to one installment or two installments, so that can
20:19also delay their struggle and their stress.
20:23Perhaps could be looking to buy more time and will be hopeful that the government will
20:27be kind enough to allow for that.
20:29Both of you, thank you very much for joining us on the broadcast.
20:33Thank you, Nupur.
20:34All right.
20:35Now, gold has been hitting new records of late.
20:38We caught up with Titan MD CK Venkataraman about the demand for the precious metal, especially
20:44with the festive season around the corner.
20:46Here's an exclusive interview.
20:47I think the joy of shopping in a store is getting stronger and stronger.
20:48And even in the smallest of towns, where we're setting up stores, we're finding that people
20:49are really loving that.
20:50And I think that's having a cascading effect across all categories.
20:51Absolutely.
20:52And, you know, when you're talking about gold, you're talking about gold, you're talking
20:53about gold, you're talking about gold, you're talking about gold, you're talking about gold,
20:54you're talking about gold, you're talking about gold, you're talking about gold, you're
20:55talking about gold, you're talking about gold, you're talking about gold, you're talking
20:56about gold, you're talking about gold, you're talking about gold, you're talking about gold,
20:57is happening because I think the customer experience is given mostly through that kind
21:24kind of professionalizing of the network,
21:28of the stores and all that.
21:30And even the local players, the regional players
21:33in every category are actually totally sprucing up
21:36their customer value proposition,
21:38and that's what we're seeing on the ground.
21:40I think maybe even the definition of organized
21:43versus unorganized, we may need to sort of think about.
21:47What I mean by that is that there are,
21:50for example, if I were to take jewelry,
21:52there are independent jewelers who are a single city-based,
21:56who you may end up calling as organized,
21:59but they're actually, they're quite,
22:05I mean, you may end up calling them unorganized
22:07because they're not part of a national chain
22:09or a regional chain, but they're very professional
22:11in their overall customer value proposition.
22:14So I do feel, depending on the industry,
22:17all ethnic categories, if I were to take food retail,
22:21jewelry, ethnic Indian wear for women,
22:24so these are local in nature.
22:26These can become very organized,
22:29but still remain local in ownership,
22:32or at state level, for example.
22:33Need not be dominated by national chains,
22:36whereas product categories which are pan-India in nature,
22:41I think the scale advantages of a national player
22:44will start to play.
22:45But overall, organizing is happening
22:48because the customers are wanting a certain minimum standard
22:51in the shopping experience.
22:54Well, onto another NDTV Profit exclusive.
22:56Sources tell us that IFL Finance
22:59may see a rating downgrade soon.
23:01Now, this may be due to a delay from the company
23:04to remove the RBI restrictions
23:05on its gold loan business.
23:07Vishwanath Nair is back with us
23:09to give us more details on the story.
23:11In fact, he's joining us.
23:14So what sources are telling NDTV Profit
23:16is that IFL Finance might see a credit rating downgrade
23:20simply because of the delays
23:21in RBI lifting its restrictions on the company.
23:24Now, if you remember back in March,
23:26the Reserve Bank of India
23:27had placed severe business restrictions on IFL Finance,
23:30where IFL Finance was not allowed
23:32to lend against any gold ornaments.
23:34That restriction has not yet been lifted off of the company,
23:38and that's probably why rating agencies
23:40will look at downgrading IFL Finance's rating
23:44from AA to AA-,
23:46and this will be a big problem for an NBFC like IFL Finance
23:49simply because all kinds of borrowings that an NBFC does
23:53are linked to the credit rating that is assigned to it.
23:56So if a credit rating downgrade happens,
23:58that makes the borrowing cost significantly higher
24:01for any of these companies.
24:03Apart from the issues with respect to cost of funds,
24:07what IFL Finance will also be forced to do
24:09is lay off some of its employees.
24:11Remember that IFL Finance has over 39,000 employees
24:14spread across 2,775 branches,
24:17and in each of these branches,
24:19roughly four or five employees
24:21belong to the gold loan division.
24:23So if the business does not grow significantly
24:25and if RBI restrictions continue,
24:27then the company will be forced
24:30to lay off employees from this division.
24:33Well, in fact, Vishy, do stay with us
24:35and let's shift gears to the EY controversy.
24:37The union minister of state for labor, Shobha Karanjale,
24:40has said that labor ministry has taken up the complaint
24:43and is investigating claims.
24:48Tragic news came in this week
24:50where Anna Sebastian Perel,
24:5326-year-old chartered accountant
24:54who worked at EY's Pune office,
24:58has been reported to be dead,
24:59but of course she passed away back in July.
25:01The news is coming out now primarily
25:03because Anna Sebastian's mother, Anita Augustine,
25:06has written a very moving letter to Rajiv Memani,
25:10the chairman of EY India.
25:11In the letter, Anita Augustine points out
25:14that her daughter was put through severe work stress
25:17at EY's Pune office,
25:19specifically due to unending work hours
25:22as well as unrealistic expectations
25:24from a new chartered accountant
25:26who was entering such a large consultancy firm.
25:29According to the mother of the deceased,
25:32the direct result of all of these work pressures
25:35was the death of Anna Sebastian.
25:40Now, of course, EY has released a statement
25:42defending itself in a way,
25:45but also saying that it is in the process
25:48of implementing new measures
25:49to try and improve the quality of the workplace
25:52and that it will dedicate itself
25:54to create a more safe working environment
25:57for its over one lakh employees.
25:59But having said that,
26:00remember that these actions are coming
26:02nearly two months after Anna's death
26:05and are only coming in because Anna's mother
26:07has written this letter to Rajiv Memani.
26:11Well, thank you very much, Vishy, for joining us on that.
26:14In fact, that's all we have time for right now on Profit360.
26:16Thank you very much for joining us.
27:10Thank you for joining us on Profit360.