- #Nifty, #Sensex trade at record high
- #VodafoneIdea in focus
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew on 'Ask Profit'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #VodafoneIdea in focus
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew on 'Ask Profit'. #NDTVProfitLive
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NewsTranscript
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01:21Hi, thanks so much for joining in.
01:24You're watching Ask Profit on NDTV Profit,
01:26and my name is Alex Mathew.
01:28This show gets you answers to all of your stock-related questions,
01:31and to that end, if you've got them for us,
01:33you can send them to us on that number that you see
01:36on the bottom of your screen.
01:38Whether they're short-term, technical in nature,
01:40or long-term, fundamental, don't worry, we've got you covered.
01:43For now, let's take a look at where the markets are right now
01:46so that we can set the context for today's chat.
01:49We've got the benchmark indices that are trading currently
01:52with a narrow gain, and we're at very close to all-time highs.
01:57In fact, the Nifty 50, just about 50 points off the high point of the day,
02:01and that also is a fresh all-time high.
02:04We also have the broader markets to talk about,
02:06and in fact, you saw the benchmarks outperform,
02:10and therefore the market breadth tilted in favor of the advances.
02:13In fact, the sectoral picture is also something that will give you
02:17a sense of where things stand right now,
02:20because you see mostly green on the screen.
02:23You have the likes of the PSU Banking PAC that is finally participating.
02:27In fact, on Friday, you had the banking index
02:30led by a few private sector banks that was one of the top gainers.
02:34The banking index gaining about a percent and a half.
02:36Today, it's not doing too much.
02:39It's gaining only about 0.3 percent or thereabouts.
02:41We'll see if that changes over the course of today's session.
02:44Oil and gas, realty, energy, all gaining over 1 percent.
02:47Auto is also doing well, up about 1 percent or thereabouts in trade today.
02:52But we're focusing on one particular account at the start,
02:56and this is a stock that got beaten down in trade last week.
03:00Vodafone Idea, on the back of that Supreme Court verdict,
03:04got trolloped. It got hit quite hard.
03:08And the reason for that was, of course, the negative news on the AGR dues,
03:13dues of as much as 70,000 crore rupees for Vodafone Idea.
03:16Of course, the latest development is a positive one,
03:19and that's the reason why the stock is up about 5.8 percent in trade today.
03:23It has to do with a technology deal worth about 3.6 billion dollars
03:28that will help it improve its network offering.
03:31We've got Rucha joining in to give you some context as to what this is all about.
03:35Rucha, this is a significant development for the company.
03:39What does it mean for it?
03:42After a more than 10 percent slump last week,
03:45Vodafone Idea is up around 14 percent on the intraday high basis.
03:49Now, this is on the back of a deal which has been won by the company.
03:53Now, this is a 3.6 billion dollar deal or 30,000 crore rupees of deal.
03:58Now, this is with Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung,
04:01wherein Nokia and Ericsson were its partners since before,
04:04but Samsung is a new entry towards this partnership.
04:07Now, this is for the supply of network equipments,
04:09where Vodafone Idea will deliver such network equipments
04:13to these telecom giants over the next three years.
04:16Now, this marks the first step of Vodafone Idea
04:19towards its three-year capex plan of around 55,000 crore rupees.
04:24Now, the capex plan which the company had announced
04:26is directed towards expanding its 4G coverage
04:29and launching 5G in key markets.
04:32It also helps Vodafone Idea in expanding its capacity
04:36in line with the data growth.
04:38Now, the other recent update includes the AGR dues
04:41which the Supreme Court had rejected,
04:44the plea it had rejected which was filed by the telecom companies.
04:47Now, talking about the AGR dues,
04:49Vodafone Idea owes around 70,300 crore in AGR dues
04:52versus a cash balance of 565 crore.
04:55The company in the filing also mentioned
04:58that it is in advanced talks with its lenders
05:01to raise about 350 billion dollars towards the long-term capex plan.
05:07This is what Vodafone Idea is up to
05:10wherein it is aggressively spending on building its infrastructure
05:14and hence working towards the three-year capital expenditure plan
05:17which it had announced stating VI 2.0 earlier this year.
05:22Thanks so much for giving us that perspective.
05:25It's going to be important for Vodafone Idea
05:27to hold on to the customer base that it currently has.
05:30Still about 17 odd percent of the market share
05:33is what it's holding on to but that is being eroded.
05:36Over the course of the last several months, we've seen that.
05:40Let's get our experts on board.
05:42We've got Ashish Maheshwari, Director at Arihant Capital Market
05:46as well as Rajesh Palbia who is the Senior Vice President
05:49Technical and Derivatives Research at Axis Securities.
05:51Thank you so much to the both of you as always and good morning to you.
05:54I'll come to you first Ashish.
05:56Arguably the stock of the week last week for all the wrong reasons
05:59Vodafone Idea and then this week at the start
06:02it's gaining about 5.8 percent as we speak.
06:05Is this something that you would venture into
06:07or would you say it's too high risk?
06:10I think Vodafone Idea was always high risk, high return kind of play.
06:14So those who are interested to take that plunge
06:18I think 52-week low was Rs. 9 and high was almost Rs. 19.
06:25Those who took the risk, they got the return.
06:28At the same time, I think this AGR related ruling
06:32is not favorable for these companies.
06:35Maybe Vodafone as well as Bharti etc also.
06:39So this is negative in my view as far as Vodafone prospects are concerned.
06:44Though this $3 billion kind of new investment in 5G
06:49was a pre-planned move.
06:51This is not something that came suddenly.
06:54I think this is just to support the stock price
06:57and today their meeting management is meeting analysts also.
07:01So some positive terms they are going to do.
07:04But still in my view, cash is cash
07:07because ultimately you need to pay the government
07:10whatever the news Supreme Court has pointed out.
07:14So the pressure is going to be there on the stock
07:17and we have seen today also after touching 8-9 percent again
07:21the stock is almost hovering at Rs. 11.
07:24So my call is avoid Vodafone.
07:27In my view in this sector, we should remain focused on Bharti Airtel and Indus Tower.
07:58I would like to tell you if you are tuning in for the first time
08:01that you should tell us your name when you message us
08:03as well as where you are tuning in from
08:05so that you can identify when your question is being taken.
08:08The first question we will take today is from Mr. Reddy
08:11who is asking about Aarti drugs and whether or not to buy at this juncture.
08:15He is writing in from Hyderabad.
08:17The stock is currently trading at about Rs. 520.
08:21It is not done too much in fact over the last 12 months
08:25and it has lost quite a bit of ground even in the last month or so.
08:29The question is for you Rajesh.
08:31On the charts, does it make any sense to buy at this juncture?
08:36We have seen stock has corrected from its recent swing high of around 6.30 kind of level
08:42and now stock is almost trading near to its previous swing low
08:46which was formed in the month of August itself
08:49which is placed at around 4.95.
08:53Looking at the near-term structure, stock is in a weak zone.
08:57Stock is trading below to 20-50 day moving average.
09:00The way near-term structure is placed, I think 5.50-5.60 is the major supply zone
09:07at this juncture until the stock not crosses above 5.60.
09:10It may remain under pressure for some more time.
09:13On the downside, 4.95 should be kept as a strict stop-loss to follow.
09:19If it slips below 4.90, I think furthermore supply pressure towards 4.50
09:24we could see in the near-term to short-term basis also.
09:27So I think if you are holding the position, 4.90 needs to keep as a strict stop-loss.
09:33One of the underperformers if you can call it that over the last year or so.
09:38Pooja Gajwani who is riding in from Mumbai has got the next question.
09:41She is asking about REC which she has bought at a level of 570 per share
09:47and the stock is currently trading below that price at about 547.
09:52This is a stock that has gained quite significantly over the last year, Ashish.
09:55And I think a lot of investors will want to know should you hold on
10:00especially if you bought at slightly higher levels.
10:02What should the strategy be with something like an REC which is a long-term play no doubt.
10:08Would you buy consistently over a period of time and hold?
10:13We have seen across the board profit-taking in PSUs, railways, defense.
10:18So this stock also has fallen by almost Rs.100 from its high.
10:25But fundamentally nothing wrong with the company per se.
10:29As the company is looking at almost Rs.10 lakh worth of loan book in the next 5-6 years.
10:38So growth is bound to come because this kind of like loan book,
10:44they have to triple loan book in next few years.
10:48So only thing is as almost all PSU stocks have reacted or the profit-taking has taken place.
10:55So this stock has also come down.
10:57But in my view, if you are a long-term investor, stay put here.
11:00And in fact, I will advise at 520 odd levels.
11:04Even you can look for averaging this also.
11:06Fundamentally nothing wrong.
11:36It's not a very liquid stock. In fact, it is quite illiquid.
11:40He has already recovered most of his investment by way of dividends.
11:44The question is would you hold on to this?
11:46I see online that this is a stock or company that is involved in iron and steel.
11:52And it has a foundry in fact.
11:55I am just wondering Ashish, do you have coverage?
11:58Have you looked at this stock?
12:00And if so, would you hold on to Fosseco Industries?
12:05This is an MNC company.
12:07If you see MNC companies stock high dividend, even if you see their equity,
12:14this is also I think very small equity.
12:16And numbers wise also from 45 odd crores, they did 70 crore profit in last year.
12:25They follow I think December year.
12:28So company is doing good.
12:29And this is the reason stock is also appreciated from almost Rs.2,800 to Rs.5,300 in this year.
12:38And in my view, these MNC stocks with a niche that they are into foundry business,
12:43where not too many people are there.
12:45So in my view, just stay invested.
12:48Though you have bought a stock at quite low level,
12:51but until and unless you require money, don't sell such low chip stocks.
12:55Yeah, that's a fair point.
12:56And in fact, Mr. Venkatapathy did mention that he is not in a rush to get money.
13:00So therefore, from that perspective,
13:02if it's already something that you've recovered your cost on, Mr. Venkatapathy,
13:06Ashish says that it's a good idea to hold on.
13:09All right, Kunal's got the next question.
13:11He's writing in from Chennai and he's got JK Cement, 10 shares,
13:15which he's bought at levels of 4,705.
13:18What would the short term call be on this 4,705 is a buy price,
13:23which is very close to the market price right now.
13:25Rajesh, what's your view?
13:28Stock is in uptrend and clearly a series of higher top,
13:31higher bottom formation stock is making in JK Cement.
13:34The way stock is placed across all time frame,
13:38we believe that for the more upside going forward,
13:41we can see in the stock prices and possible target on a short term,
13:45we can expect around 4,850 to 4,900.
13:48But on a longer term,
13:49I think stock has potential to continue this upward trajectory
13:54and possibly if market remains in the same behavior.
13:57So I think possible target on a positional perspective would be around 5,500 also.
14:02So I think trailing off one can keep a stop loss around 4,600
14:07to hold the long position.
14:09Okay. Yash from Gurgaon has got the next question.
14:13Bandhan Bank is the name of the counter that he's looking at.
14:16He's already bought 250 shares at a price of 218.
14:21Again, not too far away from the current market price,
14:24but he's been holding for more than a year.
14:26He says the stock is not done too much in that time frame.
14:30In fact, it has lost ground.
14:31He's looking at the target for the next three months
14:35and since it's a relatively short term trade,
14:38Rajesh, what are the possibilities of him recovering his buy price
14:42and making a profit here or should he just exit?
14:47Bandhan Bank is underperforming stock
14:49and though some recovery is taking place in the stock from the recent swing low,
14:54which was formed at around 175, 180 kind of zone.
14:58But still in this recovery, stock is struggling to cross.
15:01It's a major supply zone, which is placed at around 250 to 220 kind of level.
15:07So till the stock not able to take out 220 level on a weekly closing basis,
15:13I think underperformance is likely.
15:17Whereas other private banks are doing good
15:19and I think here still underperformance there.
15:22So 220 is the major supply zone.
15:25If it crosses, then possible target on a positional perspective,
15:28we can expect around 240.
15:30At this juncture, some recovery may take place.
15:34So I think I would suggest to keep your strict stop loss now around 202
15:40to hold the position around 220.
15:45Again, review it.
15:46If something changes in the formation,
15:50I think then continue to hold towards the target of 240.
15:55We've got a question on F&O and I believe this is on NMDC.
15:58Surendra has got this question.
16:00Just want to point out, Surendra, that we've got a dedicated show,
16:03the F&O show that is at 10.30 a.m. every day.
16:06And in fact, they do take a few of your queries as well.
16:09So perhaps you can tune in on that tomorrow.
16:12Since the time frame is still some time away,
16:15I think you're looking for expiry this week, right?
16:17Let's hold that question for tomorrow then.
16:20We've got RCF, Rashtriya Chemical Fertilizers,
16:23which we're talking about next.
16:25And we've got Vijendra from Kalyan who's writing in.
16:28He's bought at levels of 213.
16:30He's got 800 shares.
16:32And he's wondering how long to hold this for.
16:35Since he's not specified a time frame,
16:37he's seeing a loss of close to Rs. 20,000 on this investment.
16:42Ashish, on the fundamentals, would you hold on to RCF?
16:46And what are the factors that could affect its fundamentals going forward?
16:51These fertilizer stocks, etc., they're quite seasonal kind of play.
16:55Whenever any government announcement is expected,
16:58then you see some momentum.
17:00After that, it is allowed also quite fast.
17:03Because it's typically a commodity play.
17:06I think the latest figure was almost Rs. 24,000 crores.
17:10It's a new subsidy, like a cabinet-approved new subsidy
17:13for P&K fertilizers, which can benefit all these companies.
17:19But I don't see any major run-up,
17:22which can take a stock to maybe Rs. 250 or Rs. 300.
17:26Because, again, these PSU stocks are languishing quite sometimes.
17:30So whenever they start rallying, a lot of selling may also start coming.
17:34So in my view, between Rs. 200 and Rs. 210,
17:37whenever you get these prices, you can exit from this stock.
17:40Because there's not too much upside I can foresee.
17:45A lot of regulations and a lot of the government's plans with regard to urea.
17:52And as Ashish was pointing out,
17:55the specific fertilizer compositions that you need to pay attention to.
17:59Anuj from Mumbai has got a question on Gujarat Gas.
18:02He's got 10,000 shares. His price is Rs. 520 per share.
18:07So he's making a solid gain here.
18:09The stock is currently trading at Rs. 618 or thereabouts.
18:13Rajesh, from the perspective of the fundamentals,
18:15it's a stock that has gained over 40% over the last 12 months.
18:19What is the potential for further upside?
18:23I think the stock is moving in an upsloping channel on the weekly chart.
18:29The stock is almost now trading near to its important support area,
18:32which is placed at around Rs. 602.
18:35I think if it continues to hold above Rs. 602,
18:38some pullback action towards Rs. 655 to Rs. 660,
18:41we can see in the near-term perspective.
18:43If the stock crosses above Rs. 665,
18:45this really can extend to Rs. 700 plus level also.
18:49So overall, the structure is bullish.
18:51I think he may hold on to the position with a stop-loss of Rs. 600
18:55if he wants to keep some stop-loss.
18:58If the stop-loss does not break,
19:00I think a possible target towards Rs. 700 to Rs. 720
19:04we can see on a positional perspective.
19:08Aarti Industries is the next counter that we're talking about.
19:11Naveen from Bengaluru has got this.
19:13He's got 350 shares at a price of Rs. 749.
19:17The stock is practically unchanged today.
19:20But he's seeing a significant loss right now.
19:23What would you do with something like this, Ashish?
19:25Would you book it at this juncture?
19:28Seeing a loss of Rs. 60,000 or thereabouts.
19:32Aarti Industries is again a stock which is not going anywhere
19:37if you see for quite some time.
19:39Though, if I see fundamentally wise,
19:42they are quite stable.
19:44They are doing Rs. 130 crore plus profit quarter over quarter.
19:48So fundamentally, nothing wrong with the company.
19:50Only thing is growth is not forthcoming
19:52and the sector is also not in a frenzy for quite some time.
19:55The chart also says 6 months. The stock has not gone anywhere.
19:58So my suggestion would be to wait till Rs. 600-625
20:02and any rally, you should try to exit this
20:05and shift to any frontline pharma company
20:08which can give you a better return.
20:10But Aarti Industries, I'm not that good.
20:13To follow up then, at this juncture,
20:16Ashish, what would you buy from the pharma space?
20:18Because a few of them have already run up in the recent past.
20:22What according to you is still worth accumulating?
20:26I suggest we can look at stocks like Mankind Pharma
20:30which can give you much better returns
20:32as well as GG Lab which is also, in my view,
20:36quite attractive at this price.
20:38But Mankind Pharma is my bet number one.
20:40It can touch a price of Rs. 3,000
20:43maybe once next quarter number comes.
20:46Okay, Rs. 3,000 is the potential target for Mankind Pharma.
20:503.5% just today.
20:52It's a stock that is buzzing in trade.
20:54Safari Industries is the next counter that we're talking about
20:57and this is a question all the way from the other side of the world, Canada.
21:00We've got Shivam who's writing in
21:02who's bought at levels of Rs. 2,019 per share.
21:05He's got 353 shares and he's looking to hold for the long term.
21:09He's wondering whether he should do so though.
21:11Ashish, a lot has been said about the industry.
21:14Everybody needs a bag to travel
21:16and certainly if you're coming to India from Canada, you need one.
21:19The question is whether Safari is the company that you should buy a bag from.
21:24Yeah.
21:25If you go nowadays in malls,
21:28they are doing very brisk selling.
21:30If you see a Method to Sell
21:33or other brands like VIP or Safari, etc.
21:38And buy one, get one free, etc.
21:41is getting a lot of traction in this industry
21:44and they have sold umpteen number of suitcases.
21:47So, in my view, as more and more people are travelling mostly by air
21:52or they are preferring to travel by air,
21:55so they need better suitcases also to travel in that manner.
22:00So, there's a reason companies like Safari Industries are doing well.
22:04Those stocks are expensive, almost Rs. 12,000 per market cap.
22:07But again, a small equity base and consistent performance
22:10is keeping momentum in this particular stock.
22:15My target for this stock in the next one year will be Rs. 3,000.
22:19So, lower liquidity is there but fundamentally good.
22:22Fundamentally good.
22:23Alright.
22:24Hope that answers your question.
22:25We've got Manish Jain who's asking about HAL
22:29and this is for trading purposes.
22:31He's bought 5,500 and he's got
22:33or rather he's bought at 5,500.
22:36He's got 1,000 shares
22:39and he is incurring a loss
22:41and he's looking to hold simply for the next month or so.
22:44If it is an exit, at what level should you consider doing so?
22:48Rajesh, the way things are going,
22:51not really certain that he will recover his buy price
22:54but then how does he limit his losses?
22:56What is the strategy that he should employ here?
23:00Stock is in downtrend on a near-term structure.
23:05Stock has now slipped below the 20-day, 50-day moving average.
23:08So, that clearly shows that in the near-term perspective,
23:11some pressure is still there in the stock prices.
23:15Though long-term structure is still bullish,
23:17some recovery we can see as most of the defense companies
23:22are showing some recovery from their recent swing low.
23:27Again, looking at the structure,
23:30we believe that 4,700 would be the major key supply zone
23:34for any kind of recovery
23:36which we are seeing on the near-term perspective.
23:39So, around 4,700, I think he should review again this stock
23:44and if he wants to exit around those levels
23:47because the tenure is very small.
23:49He wishes to exit in one time frame only.
23:53So, I think 4,700 is the level where he may again review the stock.
23:58At this juncture, I would suggest to keep a strict stop-loss of 43.60.
24:03That's the stop-loss he should follow
24:05because if it goes further down below 43.60,
24:08maybe furthermore pressure we can see in these stock prices
24:12and possible 4,200, 4,150 kind of level can be there in the stock.
24:17But I think hold for some time, 43.60 is the stop-loss.
24:24In recovery, 4,600, 4,750 are the next target.
24:29The next question is coming in from Vaibhav.
24:32He's writing from New Delhi and he's bought Indian Bank
24:35at a price of 550, 1,000 shares.
24:38And the question is quite an interesting one.
24:40Why is this stock lagging despite a good financial performance?
24:43And it depends on what the lens is that you're looking through.
24:48Vaibhav, if you think about it,
24:5026% gain over the year to date just in 2024 is not a bad return at all.
24:58It's just that you've been spoiled perhaps
25:00by the outperformance of certain other stocks
25:02in this massive bull rally that we've seen.
25:05The stock is up as much as 4.4% as of now in trade today.
25:10I will come back to you, Rajesh, on the charts.
25:12It's gaining quite handsomely today.
25:15His question is, can it hit 600 in the near term?
25:18What are the possibilities of that happening?
25:22Long-term structure is bullish.
25:24Stock is recovering from its recent swing low on a monthly chart.
25:28Some sign of recovery is there.
25:31Looking at the near-term structure,
25:32I think immediate major hurdle is placed at around 560.
25:36Yes, if at all its stock crosses 560, possible target towards 600,
25:40we can see in a one-month to two-month time frame.
25:44But still, 560 needs to cross on the higher side.
25:48At this juncture, I would suggest to keep a stop-loss of 510.
25:53That's the important level to watch for on the downside.
25:57If it breaks below 510,
25:58I think recovery can be there in this stock.
26:01It may take time to reach to 600, but not in one-month time frame.
26:05But 560 is the level where, again, he should review it.
26:09Another significant loss, and this is from Rakesh.
26:13We've got Rakesh Gupta from Delhi,
26:16who's bought 18,000 shares of Yes Bank.
26:19Let's pull that chart up and see where it's currently trading.
26:22And a lot of people getting into Yes Bank at elevated levels.
26:25He's bought at levels of 28.
26:27The stock is currently trading at 23 or thereabouts.
26:29Ashish, there are some people that are talking about
26:32the possibility of an improved performance for Yes Bank
26:35that really has to be seen on a consistent basis, though.
26:39What would you do with this?
26:4018,000 shares, bought at levels of 28.
26:42The stock is trading at 23 right now.
26:45This is a problem with both of our ideas and Yes Bank kind of stock.
26:49Most of the time, when the stock shows a lot of momentum,
26:54a lot of volume takes place, retail investors just enter mostly at that time.
26:59And then they have to really wait for a long time.
27:04And they lose patience, and after some time,
27:06they say that the stock moves higher.
27:09So there's a test of patience that Yes Bank is also taking.
27:12And again, the reason is the stock is not moving.
27:16There's a reason for the stake sale,
27:19that 51% stake sale to a foreign bank is still not permitted by RBI.
27:25And unless that will happen, there's no trigger as such in the stock.
27:30Because if a bank where I need to buy with just 500 crore quarterly profit,
27:35there are plenty of choices available in PSU banks,
27:39which are available at much better resolution.
27:41When your Indian bank is doing 2,500 crore profit every quarter
27:46and available at 75,000 crore monthly cap,
27:48so why do I Yes Bank is my question.
27:52So in my view, you need to exit from this bank
27:57unless that stake sale is met.
28:00That's a point well made.
28:02And there are several bargains,
28:04according to a lot of fundamental experts in the banking space to be had.
28:07Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us on this program
28:10and for answering all the questions that you did.
28:12Viewers, we weren't able to take all of your questions, obviously,
28:14because of the paucity of time.
28:16But we will be back tomorrow to take more of your questions.
28:18So do stay tuned.
28:19Lots more coming up over the course of the day.
28:21This is NDTV Profit.