#Nifty, #Sensex at record highs as #M&M, #MarutiSuzuki gain.#NDTVProfitMarkets
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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NewsTranscript
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00:01:08Thanks so much for tuning into India Market Close
00:01:11right here on NDTV Profit.
00:01:12And let's take stock of what the markets are doing in the session today.
00:01:15Remember, we are coming off six days of market making new highs
00:01:19and there is yet another day of an uptick on the nifty
00:01:23and this is despite the bank nifty not doing well
00:01:25because I think places like metals
00:01:28are the ones which are really shining in trade today.
00:01:31I think if you just look at what the nifty metal index has done,
00:01:341.89% higher and stocks,
00:01:36and we'll mark individual names of course,
00:01:38but large caps, Vedanta, JSW Steel, etc.
00:01:41Metals are really playing it to the gallery this afternoon.
00:01:45Bring up the mid-cap and the small-cap indices very quickly
00:01:47just to show you what's happening in that bucket as well.
00:01:50Half a percent lower for the mid-caps.
00:01:52Yet another day of underperformance there.
00:01:54Small caps, about half a percent lower as well.
00:01:56So the market breadth, not necessarily the most impressive.
00:02:00That's to be kept in mind, much like yesterday.
00:02:02Get the heat map up on the screen.
00:02:04Look at metals, look at autos at one end.
00:02:07So Maruti, Mahindra and Mahindra, Tata Motors,
00:02:10that brings up the auto piece.
00:02:12Then you have a Hindalco, Tata Steel, JSW Steel.
00:02:16If Vedanta was in the index, it would have been here.
00:02:18The metal story, what is not doing well?
00:02:20Pharma, a bit of a belated reaction and not uniform at all,
00:02:24but the likes of Cipla, Divis, etc. have come off in the session today.
00:02:28HDFC Bank is sulking a little bit.
00:02:30But a lot more green than red, but that is only on the large caps.
00:02:34Sadly, at the broader end of the spectrum,
00:02:36there's a fair degree of pain with the indices being lower.
00:02:39But Tamanna, I don't know if the large-cap metal rally
00:02:42has percolated to the mid-caps or not.
00:02:44I saw an odd Lloyd metal do well, but not entirely.
00:02:47I was just going to say that.
00:02:48An odd Lloyd metal, perhaps, but not...
00:02:52Let's pull up a Ratnamani, for example,
00:02:54and see if there's anything exciting happening there.
00:02:56So, no, not really.
00:02:58So it is about the big boys.
00:03:00Vedanta, Nalco, NMDC, all of them roaring on that China story.
00:03:04And what an aggressive statement,
00:03:07saying that we will come down and cut rates when we need to.
00:03:10So good, great for metals.
00:03:12But just on the broader markets and the point that Neeraj was making,
00:03:14we look at the broader indices and then the advance-decline ratio as well,
00:03:17where there is some weakness coming in, deepening now.
00:03:20Half percent down on the nifty mid-cap 100,
00:03:23and the small-cap as well.
00:03:25So this space, not reflecting what you're seeing on the nifty,
00:03:29nifty above 26,100 looks beautiful, I agree.
00:03:33But on portfolios, there's a bit of pain.
00:03:35Let's pull up the intraday on the mid-cap as well for a second.
00:03:38Just want to see if the cut is deepening in the last few minutes,
00:03:41and is that the reason we're seeing?
00:03:44Yes, it is, to some extent.
00:03:46You know, you've had quite a soft kind of a day here.
00:03:50Advance-decline ratio is just for a second,
00:03:52because this is a day when the headliners are doing well for the broader markets.
00:03:57That means this is the day your portfolio might not look too great.
00:04:001284 on the decline, 822 on the advance.
00:04:03So quite a bit of gap there, widening in the last few minutes as well.
00:04:07Let's take a look at the BSE 500 gainers and losers,
00:04:10just to give you a flavor of what's happening there.
00:04:13PB Fintech is having a bad day.
00:04:15And it's interesting.
00:04:17It's happening on a day when Bernstein is so excited about it.
00:04:20So the long story short is that the company in its last analyst call
00:04:25talked about extending into healthcare business as an extension, right?
00:04:29They sell health insurance.
00:04:30Let's start into healthcare, like build a hospital chain.
00:04:33Now the company comes and says that we're still thinking about it,
00:04:36not doing anything on it right now.
00:04:38Six and a half percent down on the stock today in trade.
00:04:43On the other side, easy trip after the promoter has sold about 13% stock
00:04:49and 13% of his share.
00:04:52This has seen maybe that overhang moving out and that stock 6% up.
00:04:57That's doing well in trade today.
00:04:59Maruti is the exciting one.
00:05:01Not as much for some of the auto majors, but Maruti, of course, doing very well.
00:05:05And Lloyds Metal, you know, beaming in that metals kind of a move.
00:05:09But I want to pull up two other stocks as well.
00:05:12Trent and Jet. Let's look at both of these.
00:05:15City call on Trent was a very positive one.
00:05:19And you are seeing it stay up off its highs, but Trent not doing too badly.
00:05:25I would say look at Jet Airways as well, because the whole insolvency case,
00:05:29which has been hanging fire for a while, is now in the Supreme Court.
00:05:33So you've seen the ups and downs there through the day right now,
00:05:37about a percent and a half down.
00:05:39That live commentary actually coming in right now as we speak from the Supreme Court
00:05:43that is hearing the Jet case.
00:05:45That's one to watch out for.
00:05:47But apart from that, I would say, Neeraj, it's all about metals.
00:05:50No other major story. Metals and an odd Maruti.
00:05:54Yep. A bit of auto, a bit of metals, but metals predominantly.
00:05:57Though in the large caps, Nifty's auto has done well.
00:06:01But big breaking news coming in.
00:06:02SEBI's urged exchanges to tighten the SME IPO oversight.
00:06:06It's called for a meeting of over 50 merchant bankers.
00:06:09Charu joins us with what her sources are telling her.
00:06:14Charu, what are you picking up?
00:06:15Hi. So the market regulator has been trying to increase its due diligence
00:06:19on the merchant bankers, domestic banks who are dealing with the SME IPOs already.
00:06:23However, they have now come out and spoken to the exchanges as well,
00:06:27asking them to increase their due diligence
00:06:29because they're the first in line in dealing with the SME IPOs.
00:06:33So in a basic effect or in a response to the ask by the market regulator,
00:06:39the exchanges have already met around 50 merchant bankers to talk about this.
00:06:43And on their own accord also, they are trying to increase their due diligence
00:06:46and to deal with the matter in a better way
00:06:48because the regulator has been flagging issues and bubbles and froth
00:06:52in the entire SME IPO process since March this year.
00:06:56Well, Charu, this will be important, but it'll be lovely to get more updates
00:07:00as in when you pick up about this.
00:07:02Because if all the SME bankers have been called
00:07:05and we know that the market is a bit opaque
00:07:07and we know that there is a worry in that market,
00:07:09then certainly such moves are necessary.
00:07:12Charu, anything else that one should watch out for?
00:07:15Any timelines or anything to this regard?
00:07:17So Ashwini Bhatia, who is a whole time member of the regulator,
00:07:20in a recent event had also spoken about bringing a consultation paper
00:07:24to deal with the issue very soon.
00:07:26So we can expect that after these investigations
00:07:29around the domestic banks are over,
00:07:30a consultation paper might come into the public.
00:07:34However, we must also understand that SME IPO issue
00:07:37is not something that is just coming up.
00:07:39So the exchanges and the regulator have been trying to deal with this
00:07:42for the entire year.
00:07:43And we also reported previously that around 12 domestic banks
00:07:46or even more than that are under the scanner of the SEBI currently.
00:07:50So something could come out very soon.
00:07:54All right. Thank you for that, Charu.
00:07:55And that's a big story to watch out for.
00:07:57Remember, the next couple of days is going to be about SEBI action.
00:08:01On Monday, there's a crucial board meet
00:08:03where we're expecting some announcements on F&O trade as well,
00:08:08SME IPOs.
00:08:09That overall theme, Neeraj, of concerns over froth building
00:08:13in some buckets, some corners of the market,
00:08:16especially with the kind of exposure retail investors have,
00:08:19seems to be peaking.
00:08:20If I look at all of these news reports in a broader sense,
00:08:23we might see something on Monday.
00:08:24Yeah, it could be very interesting to see
00:08:26and it will be market moving, I must tell you.
00:08:28But, you know, talk about market moving, Tamanna.
00:08:30Look at the Nifty.
00:08:31A brilliant uptick there.
00:08:33It's just the perfect time to get in our experts
00:08:35to try and understand if you should buy, sell or hold.
00:08:38The Nifty, some of the other indices,
00:08:40Kushbora, Rajesh Palbiya, both of them join in.
00:08:43Gentlemen, good afternoon. Thanks for joining in.
00:08:45Rajesh, I'll start off with you this time.
00:08:47Good afternoon.
00:08:48Are you buying the Nifty?
00:08:50There is a big spurt here, 0.64% higher now.
00:08:53Is there a trade on the Nifty?
00:08:56So, we are already in a long trade of Nifty.
00:08:58So, at this level, we will not buy
00:09:00because we are on expiry date.
00:09:02But in the decline, we have already longed
00:09:05for the 26,000 call option
00:09:07and we are riding that call option.
00:09:10We believe that expiry will be around 26,100 to 200 range now
00:09:14as the major put base has shifted higher further
00:09:18as market is now comfortably holding 26,100.
00:09:22So, I think 26,100 may act as a support for the day.
00:09:25But going forward, yes, we believe
00:09:27that this really can extend further
00:09:29and 26,300 to 26,400 could be the next target for the Nifty
00:09:33as major put base concentration is now placed at 26,000 level.
00:09:38So, I think confidence is clearly there on the put writers
00:09:42so that we believe that this momentum can extend further.
00:09:46So, yes, we are in the long trade of Nifty at this moment.
00:09:49Positionally, 26,400 we are projecting target.
00:09:5226,400. Do you have a timeline for this, Rajesh?
00:09:56I think that's possibly next couple of days
00:10:00we may see this kind of level.
00:10:02Next couple of days, you mean Friday and then Monday?
00:10:05You have one trading day left in the week.
00:10:08Wow. Kush, are you feeling that optimistic?
00:10:11What is your Nifty target?
00:10:13I'm a little surprised it isn't a couple of hours.
00:10:16I mean, there aren't actually a couple of hours left
00:10:19for the market to close.
00:10:20But that's the kind of momentum we are in.
00:10:22No, no. I want the paper.
00:10:24Very clearly, the trend is higher.
00:10:27The trend is upwards.
00:10:28My only concern is that now the risk-reward ratio
00:10:30will not be favorable.
00:10:31We've been gunning for a pullback.
00:10:33Even if it's for about 150-200 points,
00:10:36we've not got that.
00:10:38But I will be more comfortable buying on decline.
00:10:40So, Nifty anywhere close to 25-800, 25-900
00:10:43should be a good entry point.
00:10:45At least from a risk-reward standpoint.
00:10:47Now, the PCR is also hitting close to 1.3,
00:10:50which is suggesting that it might be getting overheated.
00:10:53Not entirely there yet.
00:10:55So, some pullback cannot be ruled out.
00:10:57I've been very bullish on Bank Nifty for a while now.
00:11:00That view remains.
00:11:01However, there is one interesting data point
00:11:03that's sort of popping up,
00:11:04which is that the 54,000 straddle
00:11:06for the next weekly expiry has been intact.
00:11:10No surprises because it's a big,
00:11:13it's a meaningful number in the sense that
00:11:15it's a thousand multiple, round figure, all of that.
00:11:18But the call option open interest
00:11:21does not seem to be shedding on this one.
00:11:23So, just a little caution that even if Nifty,
00:11:25even if that call is in the money
00:11:27and that option is seen writing,
00:11:28maybe there is some comfort that the call writers
00:11:31are taking out of this straddle.
00:11:33So, I'll be a little watchful.
00:11:34On the whole, there is a premium total
00:11:37of about 650-odd points.
00:11:39The 54-650 on the upside,
00:11:4153-400 on the downside,
00:11:42seems to be the broad range for Bank Nifty.
00:11:44Here too, a comfort will come in only when
00:11:46you see a dip of a couple of hundred points.
00:11:50I don't know if you're going to see that dip,
00:11:52at least on the Nifty and the Bank Nifty.
00:11:54You've seen the spike in the last few minutes or so.
00:11:56But having said that,
00:11:57let's get picks for this afternoon.
00:11:59Whatever's left of trade time,
00:12:01less than an hour, about 45 minutes or so.
00:12:03Rajesh Palviya.
00:12:05So, first is from the NBFC space,
00:12:07that is Bajaj Finance.
00:12:08Very strong momentum in the NBFC space
00:12:11in the last couple of hours.
00:12:13We believe the way Bajaj Finance has moved up
00:12:16in the last two, three weeks,
00:12:18we believe that here we could see
00:12:20a continuation of uptrend.
00:12:22And possible target for Bajaj Finance,
00:12:24we may see towards 78-50.
00:12:26So, one can buy with stop-loss of 7690.
00:12:30Second stock is from the metal space,
00:12:32that is Vedanta.
00:12:33Clear breakout on the stock.
00:12:35And now stock is approaching
00:12:38towards its previous swing high,
00:12:40which was formed in the month of May 2024.
00:12:43And the way stock managed to break out
00:12:46of almost 12-13 week consolidation,
00:12:50that clearly shows that here
00:12:52we could see a continuation of up move.
00:12:54525 is the next target for the stock.
00:12:57One can buy with stop-loss of 494.
00:12:59And the third stock is from the power space,
00:13:01that is Tata Power.
00:13:02Again, here we have seen outperformance
00:13:05and the stock managed to give breakout
00:13:07on the weekly chart.
00:13:09So, the way stock managed to give breakout
00:13:12of almost 15-20 week,
00:13:14here there is a possibility that
00:13:16we may see a target towards 495-500 for Tata Power.
00:13:20So, Tata Power is buy with stop-loss of 466.
00:13:24Okay, so three stocks there from Rajesh
00:13:28and Tata Power definitely doing well.
00:13:30Seeing momentum today in trade.
00:13:32What about you, Kush?
00:13:35Craftsman Automation.
00:13:37This stock has been on a very steady up move
00:13:41with small, small runs of profit booking.
00:13:43But on the whole, the move is
00:13:45a pretty solid one on the way higher.
00:13:47Now, for targets, you're looking at 6750,
00:13:50which is fairly close.
00:13:51But then the second target on this one is 6900.
00:13:54Stop-loss close to 6450.
00:13:56The second pick is eClerk.
00:13:58This stock has had a fair share of volatility.
00:14:00But after about 10-15 odd sessions of consolidation,
00:14:03we've seen a big breakout yesterday
00:14:05and a good follow-through today.
00:14:07It's sustaining above that resistance of 2900.
00:14:10A close above this one will push the stock even higher
00:14:12to levels of 3030 and 3110.
00:14:15A stop-loss on this one should be at 288.
00:14:19Kush, I'm very surprised.
00:14:20Very quickly, 30-second answer.
00:14:21You don't have a metal stock,
00:14:22you don't have a Maruti or an auto stock in your picks.
00:14:25Why so?
00:14:27So, Maruti was on our radar,
00:14:29but 13300 has been a resistance for this stock,
00:14:32hasn't moved past it.
00:14:34Today it has, so we might consider it now.
00:14:36Metals, only because there is a big degree of volatility
00:14:39in some of these names.
00:14:41So, sustainability of the rally is a bit of a question mark.
00:14:44But even that said,
00:14:45we like Tata Steel and Hindalco among the pack.
00:14:48Well, let's talk about the stock of the day,
00:14:50the theme of the day,
00:14:51though you could argue and you'll tell us that
00:14:53you've made a mistake in a fast-paced environment.
00:15:24So, clearly under pressure.
00:15:26We're going to try to break down right from Q1 FY25,
00:15:29from the call commentary as to what's played out,
00:15:32just to try and simplify this.
00:15:34So, let's pull out the commentary first,
00:15:36let's break it down, let's understand it better.
00:15:38In Q1 FY25, we had the MD,
00:15:43the CEO as well as the founder,
00:15:45co-founder of PV Fintech,
00:15:47talk about lifetime value of the customer in insurance.
00:15:51Now, the current revenue model in healthcare
00:15:54is revenue per bed.
00:15:56But he spoke of something very different.
00:15:58He spoke about a shift from revenue per bed
00:16:00to lifetime value of the customer.
00:16:03Now, what this means is
00:16:05that the lifetime value of the customer
00:16:07starts with the customer paying insurance premium
00:16:10and thereafter at some point of time,
00:16:13that insurance premium doing him good,
00:16:17maybe through claims post hospitalization.
00:16:21So, hospitals, there are three basic players
00:16:26in this entire chain.
00:16:28One is the insurer, one is the distributor
00:16:30and the third is the hospital.
00:16:32Basically, between these three,
00:16:34all the money is basically made and distributed
00:16:37from either insurance premium
00:16:40or from the hospitalization costs.
00:16:43And what basically Mr. Dayya said is,
00:16:45how lifetime value gets divided between stakeholders
00:16:49currently is going to be unclear
00:16:51or is unclear for everybody.
00:16:54But I think unless one develops that at some level,
00:16:58it will be challenging.
00:17:01In fact, in the next 10, 15 or 20 years,
00:17:05when some of these realizations come up for payment,
00:17:09especially from an insurance perspective.
00:17:12And therefore, he believes that effort
00:17:14is required to be made
00:17:16with regard to the life of the consumer
00:17:18and making that much more simpler and easier.
00:17:22And that's what he's been focusing on
00:17:24since the last six months
00:17:26pre the Q1 F525 Concord.
00:17:30And that's exactly what we're going to try to break down
00:17:33because what the news actually was,
00:17:36was PB FinTech is foraying into hospitals.
00:17:39The clarification which came out yesterday
00:17:41was very similar to the Q1 F525 commentary.
00:17:45In fact, referred to the Q1 F525 commentary as well.
00:17:48Here, PB FinTech has said that we believe
00:17:50if claims were quicker and smoother
00:17:53in terms of their experience to the customer,
00:17:56it would increase the number of people
00:17:58buying health insurance.
00:18:00They also say that it would be much better
00:18:03if interests were aligned
00:18:05between insurers and hospitals
00:18:07to give customers amazing claims experience.
00:18:10And we believe that would grow
00:18:13insurance penetration in the country
00:18:15and a decision, if and when arrived,
00:18:18will be informed to stock exchanges.
00:18:20They've not yet arrived at a decision.
00:18:22They've not suggested anywhere here
00:18:24that they're foraying into hospitals per se.
00:18:27All right, so now let's take views.
00:18:29We had, of course, Bernstein come out
00:18:31with a viewpoint earlier today.
00:18:33And they've suggested that
00:18:36they've kept their target price,
00:18:38they've maintained their outperformed rating,
00:18:40and what they've said is,
00:18:42PB FinTech is talking about backward integration
00:18:45with hospitals, not into hospitals.
00:18:48And what they're saying is that the founder
00:18:50is convinced that this is the way forward.
00:18:52That is something they seem comfortable with suggesting.
00:18:55The likely plan is to provide
00:18:57hospital bed inventory to customers
00:18:59in Delhi and CR to start off with.
00:19:01And if it works, PB could be the dominant
00:19:04health insurance distributor
00:19:06in the market currently.
00:19:08An actual positive for PB is what they're suggesting.
00:19:11The company has around $650 million of cash
00:19:13on the balance sheet, and therefore,
00:19:15that will be used to build this model up
00:19:17is what Bernstein seems to be suggesting.
00:19:20Last off, some open-ended questions
00:19:22which investors need to keep your eye out on.
00:19:25Will PB FinTech foray into hospitals?
00:19:27Well, that's a question
00:19:28which they've not clearly answered yet.
00:19:30The other one is, how much are they willing to invest?
00:19:33They currently have 5,000 crore on their balance sheet.
00:19:35In terms of cash.
00:19:37And now, what will the business model be?
00:19:41How will it change?
00:19:42How quickly can it change?
00:19:44And how much of a business mode
00:19:48will it create for PB FinTech?
00:19:50So these are some questions
00:19:51which we don't yet have answers to.
00:19:53Maybe that uncertainty creating that
00:19:54kind of 16% fall in the stock price.
00:19:57Possibly, and the fact that there was so much excitement
00:20:00on this integration plan,
00:20:04and then that sort of the wind going out of it
00:20:07because of what the management said,
00:20:09that also has seen some uncertainty.
00:20:11But meanwhile, just let's look at the Nifty.
00:20:14Zooming ahead.
00:20:15I mean, the kind of moves that we're seeing
00:20:20on the Nifty in the last few minutes,
00:20:22I mean, you might just hit 26,200 very quickly.
00:20:26A quick check on the Nifty once again,
00:20:29and your strategy once again, Rajesh.
00:20:31Right now, if you had to take a call,
00:20:33what would you do?
00:20:36So just to play this expiry,
00:20:37I think one can look to buy 26,200 call option
00:20:42at this juncture,
00:20:43just for expiry point of view
00:20:44and keep a stop loss of 26,150
00:20:48to hold this call option.
00:20:50The way Nifty is now negotiating with 26,200,
00:20:54I think, and even most of the sectors
00:20:57have also started participating in this up move.
00:21:00I think roll over action can take Nifty
00:21:02further higher to 26,250 kind of zone also.
00:21:05So I think that would be a very quick move.
00:21:07So I think those who are very quick in trade,
00:21:10they can do this kind of trading
00:21:12because on expiry day,
00:21:14it always to be very quick to punch your orders.
00:21:18So 26,250 would be the immediate target
00:21:22where we can see Nifty.
00:21:25Okay.
00:21:26Sudeep Bandopadhyay joining us this afternoon.
00:21:29While we are setting perhaps for another new high
00:21:32at closing at least last minute afternoon gains
00:21:35coming in on expiry day.
00:21:37Sudeep, great to speak with you.
00:21:38I want to ask you first about autos,
00:21:40your view on Maruti and Hero.
00:21:42One zooming today,
00:21:43another stuck on speed breakers,
00:21:45thanks to that UBS note.
00:21:47What would be your call on both?
00:21:50Well, as far as Maruti is concerned,
00:21:52I will be holding my investments back.
00:21:56I think the valuation at which now it has moved,
00:21:59I think a pause is a bit right course of action.
00:22:03Of course, there is a Hyundai IPO coming
00:22:06and around that time,
00:22:07I think there'll be a lot of excitement
00:22:08in all the auto counters.
00:22:10So I'm not talking about that scenario,
00:22:12I'm talking about today.
00:22:14As far as Hero Motocorp is concerned,
00:22:15my view is different.
00:22:17I think with the festive season coming in
00:22:20and rural demand really picking up post-monsoon,
00:22:22Hero Motocorp should start doing well.
00:22:25In fact, they will start doing better
00:22:27compared to many other two-wheeler competitors of theirs.
00:22:30So in spite of competition,
00:22:32in spite of what Hyundai is doing
00:22:34and the views around that,
00:22:37I think Hero's business will expand
00:22:40and the numbers will start looking much better
00:22:43in Q3, Q4.
00:22:45So at this stage,
00:22:46I would be buyer in Hero Motocorp.
00:22:49You'd be a buyer in Hero Motocorp.
00:22:51Rajesh, do you agree with that?
00:22:54And Hero has actually, to be fair,
00:22:56recovered quite a bit from this day's lows.
00:23:00Would you still come in and buy?
00:23:02Overall, auto pack is looking bullish
00:23:05and Hero Motor, yes,
00:23:06some brief correction has been taken place in this stock,
00:23:10but the stock is comfortably holding
00:23:12about a 20-day moving average.
00:23:14And in this kind of market,
00:23:15the stocks, those that are available
00:23:17above 20-day moving average
00:23:18are considered as a bullish stock
00:23:20and we believe, yes,
00:23:21one should use this decline as a buying opportunity.
00:23:245960 should be your stop-loss.
00:23:27Possible pullback can extend to 6200 to 6250.
00:23:32Okay. Kush, what about you, Maruti and Hero?
00:23:35Both technical call?
00:23:39Maruti finally has broken above that band of 12,000 to 13,000.
00:23:44I think, you know,
00:23:45and this is on the back of very good volume.
00:23:46So I think from a momentum trade perspective,
00:23:49not a bad idea to play for targets of, you know,
00:23:5113,750 and 14,000 now,
00:23:54you know, this newfound, you know,
00:23:56excitement and momentum could very well take the stock higher
00:23:59to, you know, these levels.
00:24:00Hasn't really participated, but now can.
00:24:02Now, the resistance zone of 13,000
00:24:05will start acting as a support zone.
00:24:06So maybe just under 12,900 is where you place your stop-loss.
00:24:09Hero Motor Corp, yes, even I concur that, you know,
00:24:12there was a good run,
00:24:13two days of profit booking
00:24:15and rebounding from close to those support levels.
00:24:17Not a bad idea to take an entry at the current level.
00:24:20The stop-loss on this one is very clear, close to day low.
00:24:235,900, you know, that's your stop-loss.
00:24:25On the upside,
00:24:26you're looking at a 6,200 and a 6,400 as a target.
00:24:29So both these stocks for slightly different reasons,
00:24:31but looking good.
00:24:33Okay.
00:24:34All right, let's come to a story,
00:24:36which was an NDTV Profit exclusive.
00:24:39Not one, but a whole host of brokerage houses
00:24:42have actually cited that story.
00:24:43And it's about a stock that everyone has been tracking
00:24:46very closely, HDFC Bank.
00:24:48Vishwanath Nair is joining us for more on that.
00:24:50And it was his story, in fact.
00:24:51So Vishwanath,
00:24:52let's start by setting the context of the story
00:24:54that we broke on NDTV Profit.
00:24:56And then what is the kind of brokerage commentary coming in?
00:25:00So what happened with HDFC Bank,
00:25:03according to what sources are telling us,
00:25:04is that the bank is looking to offload
00:25:06about 60,000 to 70,000 crore worth of loans
00:25:09from its balance sheet.
00:25:10This is primarily to bring down
00:25:12the credit deposit ratio at the bank.
00:25:14Now, why is the bank doing this?
00:25:15Well, after the merger with HDFC Limited,
00:25:17that credit deposit ratio rose to over 100%.
00:25:20And that's something that a bank has to manage
00:25:22on a regular basis,
00:25:23because otherwise it becomes unsustainable to run a business.
00:25:26Brokerages have, of course,
00:25:27taken note of the story that NDTV Profit did.
00:25:29And in their reports,
00:25:30they're mentioning that this will help the bank
00:25:32bring down the credit deposit ratio,
00:25:34while alongside that, reduce the pressure
00:25:37that is there on deposit raising.
00:25:39So specifically, commentary from HSBC seems to suggest
00:25:42that the pressure on deposit raise will come down
00:25:44because of this.
00:25:45It will be nimble credit,
00:25:46because what the bank is going to do
00:25:48is likely looking to sell home loans,
00:25:51which are low margin businesses.
00:25:53So as low margin businesses go down on the balance sheet,
00:25:56the net interest margin actually improves.
00:25:59On the other hand, Nomura,
00:26:00which also quoted the NDTV Profit report,
00:26:02says that the ROE implications
00:26:05will actually be slower than expected,
00:26:07and that this is likely going to take some time
00:26:09for HDFC Bank to come back to normalcy,
00:26:11because the sales are not going to happen immediately.
00:26:1370,000 crore worth of loans will be sold off
00:26:16only over a period of time in FY25,
00:26:18and that's when the impact of all of this
00:26:21will start showing up.
00:26:22So Nomura being a little bit more circumspect,
00:26:24but HSBC pretty constructive.
00:26:28Thanks a lot for that, Vijay.
00:26:29So well, HDFC Bank, not quite above 1800 as yet,
00:26:32and banks are a bit sedate today,
00:26:34but per se, this has been one news flow
00:26:39that's triggered a lot of reaction in the stock
00:26:41and within the analyst community,
00:26:43which actually tracks this as well.
00:26:44So bear this in mind, okay?
00:26:47What we need to do is slip into a very quick break,
00:26:50but on the other side of the break,
00:26:52we'll get you, of course, the top buy and sell ideas,
00:26:55update on the primary market action,
00:26:57and more importantly,
00:26:59if you're getting enthused by IPO subscriptions,
00:27:04my colleague Anushi will join in and tell us
00:27:06what has happened to the companies
00:27:08that have got the highest subscription
00:27:10and how has their performance been on listing day
00:27:14and subsequently as well.
00:27:16Very informative piece.
00:27:17You don't want to go anywhere.
00:47:35I think it was intense
00:47:37about a couple of quarters back.
00:47:38I think things are stabilizing there.
00:47:41And so, Indian...
00:47:42Large Indian Pharma companies,
00:47:43which are significant US business.
00:47:45I think they are...
00:47:47Their prospects...
00:47:48Their position is improving.
00:47:49And I think that's likely to stay.
00:47:52Domestic Pharma is doing very well.
00:47:54There is about 25% CAGR in domestic pharma business.
00:47:58And some of the companies,
00:47:59which have a significant domestic presence,
00:48:01of course, will continue to do well.
00:48:03Some of them are getting into acquisitions of related players and strengthening their
00:48:08position for the future.
00:48:09So, a lot of excitement is there definitely in pharma.
00:48:13And we have to be careful in, even if we are based on some news, if we decide to sell or
00:48:20exit some counters, we need to be careful as to what we are doing, because prospects
00:48:25are looking bright as far as pharma is concerned.
00:48:29Okay, okay.
00:48:30Well, just before we get into closing strategies, I think it's also important to try and pencil
00:48:35in what has happened in the primary markets, because the issue that is open today, Tamanna,
00:48:40KRN heat exchanges, we're talking about the Manba Finance getting 224 times, right?
00:48:45KRN as of now is subscribed 50 times already.
00:48:48This is day two.
00:48:49So, you expect some serious subscription there.
00:48:52But here's the thing, here's the thing.
00:48:53I think what Anushi is trying to tell us right now is, companies which have gotten
00:48:59heavy subscription, what were the listing day gains, and fine, they may have had listing
00:49:04day gains.
00:49:05What's happened subsequently?
00:49:06Because it's great information.
00:49:08Yeah, yeah.
00:49:09What happened eventually?
00:49:10But, you know, just having said that, and we'll go to Anushi in just a second, the data,
00:49:15SEBI data, which tells you that 50% plus exit in the first week.
00:49:19So, everyone's here, most people are here for that party.
00:49:23Everyone's there for the pop, but in any case, Anushi, what are the top 2024 IPOs performance
00:49:31today?
00:49:32How are they faring?
00:49:33Hey, Tamanna.
00:49:34So, it's been in raining IPOs this year as well.
00:49:36If you look at 2024, we've handpicked the top five ones in terms of subscription.
00:49:40First on the list is Weball Steel Tubes.
00:49:43It has received massive 300x of subscription when it listed, when it came for its listing
00:49:48in February.
00:49:49Along with that, there's Manba Finance, which is set to be listed in nearby time as we go
00:49:54to 24x of listing that we're looking at.
00:49:56Then there's Gala Precision, Unicommerce, eSolutions and BLS eServices of this 2024
00:50:02list, which have topped in the subscription status with about 162 to 200x of oversubscription
00:50:08that we have looked at.
00:50:09And this reflects the listing day gains as well.
00:50:11If you look at the listing premium that these companies came out with, Weball Steel Tubes
00:50:15with over 300x subscription tops the list with about 181% of listing day gains that
00:50:21we are looking at.
00:50:22Even BLS eServices and Orian Technologies, I'm not including Manba Finance as it's not
00:50:28listed here.
00:50:29So, 117 to 129 gains that even these counters have seen, Orian Technologies and Gala Precision
00:50:36do have seen returns in the range of 40 to 41%.
00:50:40But Tamanna, you pointed out a very clear point that, you know, it's the early party
00:50:43hoot that we are looking at and then investors take in the exit.
00:50:47So, if you see the kind of listing day premium and compare it to the current performance
00:50:51of these, we are seeing most of these counters in a negative trend with Weball Steel Tubes,
00:50:56which was the strongest in terms of the listing premium and subscription seeing the most pressure
00:51:00in trade, about 40% of a loss that we are looking at since its listing day closed in
00:51:06terms of stock performance.
00:51:07Even Gala Precision, it's currently at the similar levels, 2% down.
00:51:11Unicommerce, about 2.4% gains while BLS eServices, another weak counter with about 38% of losses
00:51:18that we are looking at.
00:51:19But let's just highlight why this has happened and what is the outlook for some of these
00:51:23companies.
00:51:24So, Weball Steel Tubes, if we are looking at, the decline in stock price as we see is
00:51:28attributed to the SEBI putting it under surveillance and also weak set of Q1 FY25 results that
00:51:34has led to this performance.
00:51:35Gala Precision Engineering, on the outlook for this one, it maintains its revenue growth
00:51:39and its margins and EBITDA margins to remain in the 18% to 20% range, so outlook on this
00:51:46one continues to be a focal point.
00:51:48If you look at Unicommerce eSolutions, it reported about a 9.2% of a revenue growth
00:51:53while its management expects that going forward it will outpace the industry growth moving
00:51:58forward.
00:51:59Coming to BLS eServices, Q1 FY25, revenue performance, PLAT performance we are looking
00:52:05at, while PAT reported a solid growth.
00:52:08It also acquired a 55% stake in a company for an enterprise value of about Rs.190 crore.
00:52:14And the last one on the list is Orion Technologies, if we look at its Q1 numbers, revenue was
00:52:19about 27% up, while PAT about 30% up, but the stock as we see is down about 2% since
00:52:26its listing that we are looking at.
00:52:28So, these are some of the key highlights of the top five ones in terms of subscription
00:52:32and how they are faring right now.
00:52:34Okay.
00:52:35All right.
00:52:36That was a great piece.
00:52:37Thank you for that, Anushi, because it's giving you a sense of the reality check after
00:52:42the first heady week or so has gone.
00:52:46Not necessarily that all IPOs fare like that, I just want to pull up Bajaj Housing Finance
00:52:50because that's the recent blockbuster, so to speak, and look at what's happening there
00:52:54since its listing price and those gains continue strong as far as Bajaj Housing Finance are
00:52:59concerned at least.
00:53:00So, that's one, at least that's a good story so far, but we'll have to check again in a
00:53:06few weeks.
00:53:07I just want to get a take on the whole IPO situation from Sudeep, before we get to our
00:53:14BTSD call.
00:53:15Sudeep, the whole host of IPOs, subscription numbers we keep talking about, are you concerned?
00:53:22And which are the IPOs that you're really looking forward to right now?
00:53:25Well, I'm not really concerned, you know, there's enough and more liquidity in the market.
00:53:31So, what we need is more high quality IPOs.
00:53:34Look, you know, if we have to ensure that the Indian market continues to go at a reasonable
00:53:40valuation and remains attractive to global investors, we need to ensure that the depth
00:53:45of the market increases and that can increase by the coming of more and more good quality
00:53:51stocks in the market through IPO.
00:53:54That's very, very critical.
00:53:55So, I'm not worried about the IPOs.
00:53:58Yes, the valuation and euphoria is a bit worrying.
00:54:01As far as the forthcoming IPOs, of course, like everybody else, are very interested in
00:54:06Hyundai IPO.
00:54:07I think, you know, we need more automobile stocks to be included on Indian Stock Exchange.
00:54:12We really don't have too many.
00:54:14And it's a good company with about 16-17% market share.
00:54:17The second largest automobile company in the country, four-wheeler, they have been innovative.
00:54:23So it's interesting.
00:54:24We're definitely looking for that.
00:54:26Swiggy, obviously, because, you know, Zomato has such a fantastic turnaround story and
00:54:31they have definitely rewarded shareholders in a big way.
00:54:34So Swiggy is in the same space.
00:54:36They have quick commerce, they have food delivery.
00:54:38So definitely, it will be watched carefully.
00:54:41And of course, NTPC Green, I have been a votary of NTPC for a very long time and the green
00:54:48energy business they have created is definitely worth, you know, watching as far as the IPO
00:54:53is concerned.
00:54:54So these are the three IPOs I'll be keenly watching out for.
00:54:57That's where the excitement is.
00:54:59NTPC Green has some news coming in.
00:55:00They have inked deals for 10 gigawatts in total.
00:55:05The stock is still a little down.
00:55:06But remember, the NTPC stock has been zooming on the hopes of shareholding, you know, quota
00:55:14when the IPO actually hits.
00:55:15So it's already seen a fair amount of a run up.
00:55:17All right, let's get BTSD calls.
00:55:19So, Sushbora, let me start with you.
00:55:21On a rock and roll Thursday afternoon, what are you going to do Friday morning?
00:55:27Hopefully, book some profits.
00:55:30I'm a little cautious on the indices, but you know, stocks not as much the stocks, you
00:55:34know, a lot of these names have been doing fantastically well.
00:55:36Sudeep also mentioned BFSI space, my pick also happens to be from that space.
00:55:41Chola Mandalam Finance, if you see this stock has actually, you know, bounced quite well
00:55:45in the recent past.
00:55:47And after probably a day of what you can call profit booking, the stock is again on its
00:55:51way up.
00:55:52So from a near term perspective, perhaps even a BTSD perspective, 1665 is the target.
00:55:58If and when that is hit, you could hold on to this one for the second target of 1690
00:56:02and 1610 is where you place your stop loss.
00:56:05So Chola Mandalam Finance is the BTSD pick for today.
00:56:08Rajesh, what is your top BTSD?
00:56:11The two stocks earlier, first one is Apollo Tire, very strong momentum throughout the
00:56:16week and the way stock is closing above 570, we believe that this momentum can extend
00:56:21to 590, 595 kind of zone.
00:56:24So Apollo Tire is buy with stop loss of 568.
00:56:28Second stock is from Pharma Space, that is Dr. Reddy.
00:56:31We believe the stock has shown strength in last couple of days and now stock is trading
00:56:37about a 20 day moving average.
00:56:396850 is the next target for the stock for BTSD.
00:56:43We believe the stop loss is around 6690.
00:56:47Okay.
00:56:48Sudeep, not a BTSD call, but anything that you're looking at and finding value right
00:56:54now for a shorter term trade?
00:56:58Oh, shorter term trade, yes.
00:57:01Some of the gold finance companies can be looked at.
00:57:04I think there is value sitting there.
00:57:06So Manapuram as well as Bithud, there has been a little bit of setback in terms of Manapuram's
00:57:11microfinance subsidiaries IPO, but I think that's a good opportunity for acquiring it.
00:57:17Also, one can look at some of the asset management companies.
00:57:22They have been out of focus for some time.
00:57:25Some of the asset management companies will definitely merit attention considering the
00:57:30amount of money they are garnering and considering the way the market is performing.
00:57:36Okay.
00:57:36Well, some snacking companies are also doing well.
00:57:38So people are not only making money, but snacking in the markets too.
00:57:41Gopal Snacks, Pratap Snacks and a clutch of others have had a really good run.
00:57:44Neeraj, just on that, people are not snacking.
00:57:48They're gorging on the markets right now.
00:57:51Yeah, gorging on the markets and snacking on the snacks.
00:57:53Maybe that's the way to put it.
00:57:55But well, gentlemen, all three of you, thank you so much for taking the time out and being
00:57:59with us on such an important day, the highest close that we've had in our history and pull
00:58:03up the markets.
00:58:05As much as it is metals, it is really autos as well, which have done so well.
00:58:10The market's kind of, well, not closing about 26, 200, but you shouldn't be too greedy because
00:58:140.7, seven days on a trot, closing at record highs, which is quite something.
00:58:19And we'll talk about the breadth, but just pull up the Nifty 50 heat map and show you
00:58:24the large cap performance and show you what the large cap auto names have done.
00:58:28Maruti four and a half percent, Mahindra and Mahindra two and a half, and then a clutch
00:58:33of others, Tata Motors, 2.8 percent as well.
00:58:35So shouldn't forget that in the top three names.
00:58:38And frankly, if you see then the metal names, which is Tata Steel, Hindalco and JSW Steel.
00:58:44And lastly, not too many losers.
00:58:46I mean, Reliance and HDFC Bank are quiet, but they're not sulking in trade.
00:58:50So there's no negative contribution coming from there, which is aiding the market.
00:58:55Yeah, yeah.
00:58:55I mean, your biggest loser is less than 2 percent down.
00:58:57So I mean, that's saying a lot in terms of the mood of the market.
00:59:00Should we just quickly pull up Nifty contributors before we get to the advanced decline?
00:59:03Just to show you how much autos are doing today and the weight that they're pulling,
00:59:07even RIL there.
00:59:08I mean, not big moves, but definitely contributing to what we're seeing L&T done because of a
00:59:14brokerage note.
00:59:16And that really maybe Cipla impacted to some extent with the action that the regulator
00:59:21has taken on certain drugs as well.
00:59:24But advanced decline ratio, this is this is, you know, the question is, are you going to
00:59:28be going home happy with your portfolio?
00:59:30Possibly not.
00:59:31As much as we're cheering Nifty touching 26,200 and coming down back, the fact is that the
00:59:36declines are more than the advances.
00:59:38Market breadth is not very positive.
00:59:40Let's pull up the mid cap and the small cap, because remember, it's been a Nifty story
00:59:44most of the afternoon.
00:59:45And the question is whether the mid cap and the small caps are together.
00:59:47They're just about flat now.
00:59:49When we started the show, this was in the red and it's just about flat right now and
00:59:53closing completely flat.
00:59:54The small cap index still about half a percent down.
00:59:57So this area is definitely still hurting.
01:00:00And that's one important thing to mark.
01:00:03If you can just quickly pull up sectors and see what is giving the most pain over there.
01:00:09And it seems to be the consumer durables that are seeing a bit of pain.
01:00:14Even the Nifty CPSC is down.
01:00:16It's all about autos and metals, as Neeraj just mentioned.
01:00:19The top gainers and losers just for a second to see what that is looking like.
01:00:24Kalyan Jewellers feeling the heat.
01:00:27Maharashtra Scooters, I'm not too sure why that is down.
01:00:29Devyani International has been having a tough day since this morning.
01:00:33On the other side, what a bump up for an easy trip after.
01:00:36I'm wondering if the promoters wishing they'd sold one day later, because today the stock
01:00:42is about 7% up.
01:00:44Vedanta, Nalcos, all of those metal names continue and Lloyds Metal as well.
01:00:50And some snacking names, as we said, I think some really good moves for them.
01:00:53I mean, when was the last time you saw Pratap Snacks being up 20%?
01:00:57Let's just pull up the Pratap Snacks chart before we close for the day.
01:01:01Pratap Snacks buzzing in trade.
01:01:04Gopal Snacks as well.
01:01:06I suppose this is one space which will always do well, but some news here perhaps pushing
01:01:10it to a 20% socket at close.
01:01:13But that's all the time we have on the show from Neeraj, me and the team that put the
01:01:16show together.
01:01:17Thank you so much for watching.