🌍 Istanbul Talks Chaos 🌀; Trump Sends Witkoff & Kellogg ✈️; Zelensky Talks ONLY to Putin 🤝; Moscow Takes Hardline 🚨 - Alexander Mercouris

2 days ago

In this breakdown of the latest geopolitical developments:

The Istanbul talks are in turmoil, as tensions rise 🌍💥

Trump sends Witkoff & Kellogg to the region ✈️💼

Zelensky now only communicates with Putin 👥🤔

Moscow doubles down on a hardline stance 🔥

Alexander Mercouris gives his analysis on the evolving situation. Don’t miss out on this crucial discussion about peace talks, geopolitics, and the future of the Ukraine crisis! 🕊️

#IstanbulTalks #Geopolitics #Trump #Zelensky #Putin #Moscow #PeaceTalks #UkraineCrisis #HardlinePolicy #Diplomacy #InternationalRelations #AlexanderMercouris #MiddleEastDiplomacy #Ukraine #RussianPolitics #ForeignAffairs #GlobalConflict #WorldPolitics #StrategicTalks #DiplomaticTensions

Transcript

00:00:00good day today is wednesday 14th may 2025 and the situation as i discussed it with this uh at the

00:00:11time of the making of this program concerning the negotiations which are due to take place tomorrow

00:00:17in istanbul well the situation is completely uncertain firstly the russians have been very

00:00:28very careful not to announce the makeup of their own delegation so far the delegation that is going

00:00:36to istanbul they have confirmed that a delegation is indeed going but they have not said who will be

00:00:44heading it or who will be there the russian presidential spokesman yuri ushikov has said

00:00:52that the um delegation will to some extent be formed around um expectations as to the topics

00:01:04that will be discussed in istanbul but even that as of the present moment in time is completely

00:01:12unclear zelensky of course says that he will go but he's also made it clear that if he does go

00:01:19he will only speak to the russians if vladimir putin himself is there it is completely unclear

00:01:29at the moment whether anyone else from ukraine will be accompanying him to istanbul um assuming that

00:01:37he does in fact go there tomorrow now zelensky has made further comments he said that in accordance

00:01:46with his october 2022 decree um he and he alone is in a position legally to speak to putin no one else

00:01:59can do so no one else apart from zelensky himself from the ukrainian side is able to speak to the

00:02:07russians and of course as we see he says that he will only speak to the russians if it is putin himself

00:02:14personally who is there now i have read this decree i'm not going to pretend that i am a person in any

00:02:25position to speak as to the meaning of this decree but my own very clear understanding of what looks like

00:02:36the very clear language of the decree is that it prohibits any ukrainian official including zelensky

00:02:47himself from talking to any russian official at all so when zelensky says that he can speak to the

00:02:55russians but no one else can i think he is actually wrong about the meaning of his own decree

00:03:03however i'm not going to waste time on this it is a ukrainian decree it is for the ukrainians

00:03:09themselves to interpret what it means they can no doubt interpret it however they like if they go to

00:03:18istanbul if they send a delegation there and the delegation meets with the russians well no doubt they

00:03:25can find a form of words to justify how it is compatible with the decree that zelensky made back in

00:03:32october 2022 however having said all of that i ask inevitably the obvious question which is why if

00:03:43zelensky is prepared to engage the russians in direct talks he's not prepared to rescind the decree i believe

00:03:54that he has the authority as ukraine's president that is of course if you accept that he is ukraine's

00:04:04president which by the way basically i do i know putin has raised questions about whether zelensky is

00:04:14in a position to act as president given that his constitutional term expired last year but to my mind that

00:04:22is a strictly internal ukrainian matter he is recognized by the international community as ukraine's

00:04:30president and i don't think it is for outsiders to discuss and comment on this anyway going back to the

00:04:38degree decree if you assume as zelensky does the international community except perhaps putin does and the ukrainian

00:04:49parliament and the ukrainian political class all do that zelensky is president and as far as i can see

00:04:58this decree is one that zelensky himself can rescind with the stroke of the pen as far as i can tell

00:05:07it was a decree that he enacted and it is a decree which he can cancel the fact that he refuses to cancel

00:05:17the decree the decree the fact that he makes no step towards cancelling the decree let us say for

00:05:26example that the decree was enacted by the ukrainian parliament the ukrainian parliament basically does

00:05:32exactly what zelensky asks it to do there are dissenters within the ukrainian parliament but his party

00:05:41has an overwhelming majority within it and opposition parties well no longer function in ukraine

00:05:48to any serious degree decree so if he wants to cancel the decree either he can cancel it with a stroke of

00:05:57the pen or he can ask the pen or he can ask the parliament to do so or he can ask the parliament

00:06:06to take steps towards doing so and in that event no doubt they would do it now i say that because of

00:06:15course if he cancels the decree the uncertainty or the ambiguity uh goes away uh zelensky doesn't have to

00:06:25go to istanbul himself he can do things in a much more normal way than he has done up to now he can

00:06:32simply appoint a negotiating team and they can go to istanbul and talk to the russians to my mind

00:06:42the fact that he adamantly refuses to rescind the decree the fact that rather than actually rescind the

00:06:52decree or take steps to rescind the decree he comes up with all these extraordinary arguments that he

00:07:00can conduct negotiations but he alone can do so and no one else can that he is immune to the operation

00:07:08of his own decree as i said i don't understand that i don't think that makes any kind of legal sense but

00:07:16anyway put all that aside the fact that he insists on these arguments it caused to quest into question

00:07:25to my mind very obvious question whether he's actually serious about negotiations at all in fact

00:07:32i would go further i would say that he obviously is not serious about conducting negotiations and that

00:07:41his intention to go to istanbul or rather his announcement that he is going to istanbul

00:07:48is simply theater intended to impress first and foremost donald trump anyway that's zelensky zelensky

00:07:58talks about him going to istanbul but he won't talk to the russians he will only talk to putin and if he

00:08:06doesn't go to istanbul presumably there's no point in the ukrainians sending a delegation to istanbul

00:08:13because according to zelensky if they do they're not able to speak to the russians because well they're

00:08:20prevented to do from doing so by his own decree the one he refuses to cancel or won't cancel or won't

00:08:30ask the parliament to cancel well describe it whichever whichever way you will anyway zelensky won't go

00:08:41to um well may or may not go to istanbul what about the americans donald trump has floated the possibility

00:08:50that he might go to istanbul he previously said that he's got a very very tight schedule he's currently

00:08:58in the gulf he's meeting with the saudis he's meeting with the emiratis he's had a productive

00:09:06meeting or so he says well in some ways it has been a very productive meeting with the acting president

00:09:12of syria al-shara the man who just a few weeks ago was known to the world as al-jalani the man who

00:09:22the united states until now apparently still considered a terrorist leader the man who the

00:09:31united states now embraces and whom president trump speaks of as a strong vigorous leader young leader

00:09:41who he clearly approves of he has incidentally cancelled the sanctions on syria which i consider

00:09:50an unequivocally good thing i think those sanctions were absolutely appalling it is over time that

00:09:58those sanctions were cancelled in my opinion they should never have been imposed in the first place

00:10:05they might the cancellation of the sanctions might finally and at last allow some possibility of an

00:10:13economic stabilization in syria but i do not intend to discuss the question of syria in this program anyway

00:10:21donald trump has been in the gulf is in the gulf he could go to istanbul uh he's again floated today

00:10:29the possibility that he might go to istanbul but my very clear impression is that he's only interested

00:10:40in going to istanbul if vladimir putin himself chooses to go i can't imagine trump wasting his time

00:10:51going to istanbul if putin isn't there now on that on that specific topic it has been quite clear to me

00:11:03that ever since uh donald trump became president of the united states on the 20th of january that he's been

00:11:12very eager and very keen to have a summit meeting with putin he seems to hanker for this summit meeting with

00:11:22putin it is putin who has been somewhat uneasy about having this summit meeting so putting aside the

00:11:31possibility of uh zelensky and putin having a summit meeting and donald trump coming and participating in

00:11:44that summit meeting i suspect that one of the reasons why trump would make a quick dash to istanbul

00:11:52if he learned that putin was going to istanbul is that he would hope to have finally that much

00:12:01hankered and yearned for meeting with putin putin of course as i said is a lot less keen as far as he's

00:12:10concerned a meeting with trump isn't it has to be more than just a photo op it must be some

00:12:17event that moves things forward that actually discusses substantive issues that agrees the way

00:12:28forward on some of those issues he does not want to find himself in another situation like the one he

00:12:35found himself in when he agreed to meet trump in helsinki back in i think 2018 and they had a meeting

00:12:45and then after the meeting the whole summit came under relentless criticism from donald trump's

00:12:53domestic enemies and the entire summit meeting basically collapsed with all the things that

00:12:59putin thought he had agreed with trump failing to happen so i think for that reason putin is a lot less

00:13:07keen on me on a meeting with trump than he might have been in any other context and besides

00:13:14putin putin unlike trump is a careful systematic methodical man he likes to prepare things in detail

00:13:27in advance he doesn't like to be catapulted into meetings where things can take any turn that they

00:13:35might without reaching any obvious conclusion so that's why putin up to this time has been unwilling to

00:13:42agree to agree to a meeting with trump he's not rejected the idea but he said that it needs to be

00:13:47carefully prepared there has to be meetings between experts an agenda has to be agreed

00:13:56there has to be some consensus on points in the agenda and then and only then will a meeting happen

00:14:05because then and only then vladimir putin says that he believes that such a meeting would be fruitful so

00:14:13i'm not convinced if putin doesn't come that trump is actually going but trump is sending his own people

00:14:23to istanbul and we've had an extraordinary run of claims and stories about which officials american

00:14:34officials exactly are going to istanbul so yesterday reuters were saying that steve whitgoth and keith kellogg will

00:14:45both be going to istanbul trump apparently has ordered them to go um notice that both peace envoys being sent to

00:14:59istanbul at the same time whitgoth and kellogg have in the past and indeed right up to now shown very very

00:15:10different ideas and perspectives about how to bring this conflict to an end whitgoth seems to favor

00:15:21accommodating russian concerns he's given interviews in which he's given the strong impression

00:15:29at least to me that he would not be averse to agreeing

00:15:33the end of the conflict on the basis of istanbul plus the proposals that putin put to the russian

00:15:42foreign ministry on the 14th of june 2024 whereas of course kellogg takes a completely different view

00:15:51i think it has become increasingly clear that kellogg is not really so much interested

00:15:57in a settlement of the conflict what he is trying to achieve is a freeze of the conflict to prevent a

00:16:06ukrainian defeat he is prepared to keep all of the other issues ukraine's nato membership the

00:16:15territorial question in abeyance he's not in any way prepared to accept any um reductions

00:16:25in the ukrainian armed forces or any restrictions on ukraine's rearmament he continues to speak he's

00:16:33been actually giving more interviews about this he continues to speak about how the united states is

00:16:39in contact with the european powers about deploying european peacekeepers to ukraine he seems completely

00:16:48oblivious or indifferent to intense russian opposition to this idea and he continues as he did yesterday to

00:17:00threaten russia with massive sanctions if they don't capitulate to all of these demands which he is making

00:17:08basically for a freeze of the conflict on american terms so wake off and kellogg profoundly different

00:17:18people entirely different approaches to the conflict but they're both being sent to istanbul and well

00:17:26yesterday early late yesterday i saw reports that the u.s secretary of state marco rubio is also

00:17:35apparently going to be sent to istanbul i haven't seen this conclusively confirmed but it seems as if

00:17:41it may be true so well um zelensky may go or perhaps he won't if he does go it'll only be if putin comes

00:17:52if he doesn't go well there's no point in sending other ukrainians to go instead because if they do go

00:18:00they won't be able to meet with the russians or perhaps or perhaps some kind of a delegation will

00:18:07indeed go to istanbul from ukraine but of course it won't speak to the russians he will speak to the

00:18:14americans so that whitgolf rubio and kellogg will once again be contacting the russians on behalf of the

00:18:25ukrainians going from one room to another passing ideas from one to another um something

00:18:33very different from the direct negotiations which is what putin seemed to be talking about when he

00:18:40first when he floated this possibility of a meeting on thursday so at the moment

00:18:50the initiative has fallen to the russians it's they who will no doubt decide the character of the

00:18:56meeting so will putin go well in my program yesterday i said that i thought it quite clear

00:19:02that putin was not going and i still maintain that view the russians have not categorically ruled it out

00:19:11they are teasing everybody but i would have thought that if putin were to do something very unexpected

00:19:22which was decide to go to istanbul well the russians would advance announce the fact in advance

00:19:31perhaps in order to ensure that both trump and zelensky were going and the fact that they've

00:19:39not announced it reinforces my belief that putin is not going having said that this is a situation as

00:19:47i said where the russians are playing their cards very very close to their chest and it could be

00:19:56but by the time you're watching this video clarification has been provided and putin is going after

00:20:06all but again to repeat as of this moment as of the time of making of this program personally

00:20:15i don't think so now yesterday the washington post claimed on the basis of a former russian foreign

00:20:25ministry official who is not a current russian foreign ministry official and who may be in moscow or

00:20:33who may not be in moscow and who may have all kinds of positions and ranks in the russian foreign ministry

00:20:40which he might not have still i mean impossible to make any sense of the reliability or weight or

00:20:47authority that this person carries but anyway according to the washington post um budin is not going to istanbul

00:20:55tomorrow and that the russian delegation is going to be led by the russian foreign minister sergey lavrov

00:21:03with yuri ushekov participating now yuri ushekov has been asked about whether or not he is going

00:21:13and he gave a beautifully evasive answer which basically said well maybe he will and maybe he won't

00:21:21currently he's in moscow we must all wait and see commersant a russian newspaper perhaps rather closer to

00:21:35official moscow if i can put it like that than the washington post is in fact definitely a lot closer

00:21:44than the washington post is well they're saying that um lavrov is not going to be heading the delegation or

00:21:54even part of the delegation and by the way that strengthens my belief that putin himself

00:22:03is not going is not going i would have thought that if putin were going to istanbul um he would definitely

00:22:13want lavrov his foreign minister there with him i know i'm aware of the fact that sometimes putin does

00:22:23meet foreign leaders without lavrov there but i think in really top level high level discussions

00:22:34putin always likes to have his key people close to him that's lavrov and ushekov and the fact that

00:22:42lavrov isn't going to my mind is a further reason to think that putin isn't going either so anyway this is

00:22:52where we where we are now i'm going to here suggest what i think the russians are intending to do

00:23:01i don't think putin is going i may be wrong these could be famous last words but i don't think putin is

00:23:09going i it seems now that lavrov isn't going

00:23:14ushekov might go but i don't really see why he would ushekov is putin's foreign policy advisor

00:23:28principally advising putin on relations with the united states he is an advisor not a head of department

00:23:37he tends to go where putin is and if putin isn't going to istanbul i can't myself really see

00:23:47what role ushekov would have unless he was there simply to observe things and to report directly

00:23:57to putin which is a possibility but again one that i would on balance to scam so i think it's going to

00:24:06be someone completely different i think the delegation is going to be head headed by

00:24:11um a middle-ranking foreign service officer from the russian foreign ministry the kind of person who

00:24:20is mostly appointed chief negotiator an expert if you like in these kind of matters it'll probably be a

00:24:28strong delegation headed by as i said a strong official from the foreign ministry a possibility

00:24:36sergey sergey ryabkov the deputy foreign minister or it could be gregory karasin who met with the americans

00:24:44in um riyadh and who conducted with the americans the discussion about um the revival of the black sea

00:24:56initiative a discussion that never went anywhere just saying but i think it is more likely to be someone

00:25:03like that and there will probably be a delegation of about a dozen people and they will be made up of

00:25:10experts uh at the usual the usual met the usual group of diplomats military officers people um with

00:25:23deep familiarity of the conflict and of the russian position the sort of people that the russians tend to

00:25:33descend when they conduct heavyweight negotiations of this kind now way back in february march

00:25:432022 the russians of course did conduct negotiations with the ukrainians and the negotiating team the russian

00:25:53negotiating team was actually headed by a cultural official mr medinsky who many thought and who i think

00:26:03was an entirely unsuitable was an entirely unsuitable person to conduct a negotiation of that kind

00:26:11and if i have to say the russian delegation that met with the ukrainians in february march 2022

00:26:20looked especially by russian standards rather lightweight

00:26:25i think the reason for that was because putin was running the negotiations very tightly

00:26:36himself at that time so he didn't want a strong delegation which might start doing things

00:26:47uh on its own he wanted people who he could more easily control he wanted essentially a delegation what

00:26:56would act as a conveyor belt for putin's ideas to the ukrainians and in a kind of a sense it worked

00:27:04because out of those discussions in february march 2022 a document appeared the istanbul agreement

00:27:13which though it appeared to have been presented and prepared by the ukrainians when you analyze it

00:27:22properly as i analyze it we've never been provided with a whole document only excerpts of it but when you

00:27:31analyze what we know about it reflected very closely putin's views well-known views at that time

00:27:44of how the conflict should be settled i think this time around putin is going to approach this very

00:27:52differently he knows that the americans are directly involved he knows that the europeans are also

00:27:59directly involved though in a somewhat different way he no longer i think believes that he can run this

00:28:07thing by himself and i think that for that reason he's going to take this negotiation in a more conventional way

00:28:17and appoint a strong negotiating team of the sort that the russians often put together have regularly put

00:28:24together to conduct negotiations of this kind so we will probably by late this evening know who the russian

00:28:36delegation who's going to be on the russian delegation on the assumption that it isn't putin as i expect

00:28:46we could very well find that it will be a delegation made up mostly of foreign service officers and veterans

00:28:57of the russian foreign service with as i said a leaving of military and maybe economics people

00:29:06i predict that when that happens there will be the usual

00:29:09claims that this proves that the russians aren't serious that they aren't sending really serious

00:29:19people to negotiate whereas in fact i would suggest that it actually says the diametric opposite it would

00:29:29suggest that the russians are taking the negotiations extremely seriously and are sending a strong negotiating team

00:29:37made up of people who understand the russian position very well are prepared to work through all of the

00:29:47details with the ukrainians and with the americans and whoever it is who chooses to come and eventually

00:29:57after weeks and months of discussion perhaps bring us to the point where an agreement is finally reached or

00:30:05perhaps a set of agreements is finally reached if we go back to the negotiations which i think are most

00:30:18closely analogous to the negotiations we could be looking at now that is exactly what happened in the

00:30:25vietnam negotiations of the late 1960s early 1970s the north vietnamese negotiating team was not headed by a

00:30:34member of north vietnam's politburo it was not headed by um north vietnam's foreign minister it was headed by

00:30:45a former retired foreign minister though it was a pretty strong

00:30:53delegation nonetheless and if we also go back to that negotiation

00:31:02to repeat again a point i have made many times the negotiation was conducted and lasted by the way

00:31:11several years even as the fighting in north vietnam continued and i don't frankly remember anybody at that

00:31:22time seriously suggesting that a ceasefire ought to be put in place whilst the negotiation was underway

00:31:30i'm not going to pretend that i know the whole history of the negotiation in detail or that my memory extends

00:31:37that far so it may be that on this i am wrong but the fact nonetheless remains that there was no

00:31:45that there was no ceasefire throughout the entire negotiating process between the americans and the north

00:31:55vietnamese until finally the contours of an agreement were reached over the course of 1972 just saying so this is

00:32:10this is what i think we are likely to see that does not preclude and i want to stress this again

00:32:17diplomatic engagement between the various sides at a very much higher level this is very common in

00:32:30in negotiations of this kind as i said if we talk go back to the

00:32:36paris negotiations between the americans and the north vietnamese there were the negotiating teams that met in

00:32:43paris they were important in making each side understanding the understand the position of the other and get

00:32:54a sense of each other's red lines something the americans by the way found very difficult to accept

00:33:01with regard to the north vietnamese but ultimately the big diplomatic breakthroughs over the course of

00:33:09those talks did not happen at the negotiating table itself they happened as a result of direct discussions

00:33:21between the north vietnamese politburo member le du chto and president nixon's national security advisor

00:33:30henry kissinger and it was they those two that ultimately shepherded the negotiating process

00:33:38towards a successful conclusion so we could see the same again we could at least this is the theory we

00:33:45could see negotiating teams meeting in istanbul growling negotiations and then every so often key people

00:33:54from each side maybe wick golf and ushikov or maybe someone else from each side meeting establishing a

00:34:06relationship with the other moving the process on agreeing the breakthroughs which ultimately lead

00:34:13to a solution i mean that is the way it could be done but will it this brings us back to the chaos

00:34:24that we are going through at the moment the russians as things stand the russians could send a very

00:34:33very strong negotiating team to istanbul but if putin isn't there the ukrainians might refuse to speak to it

00:34:44the ukrainians might speak to the americans who might be there whether the americans would in that case be

00:34:52prepared to meet with the russians acting on behalf of the ukrainians is a moot point that would not be so

00:35:03different by the way from what also happened during the paris negotiations the south vietnamese really

00:35:10didn't want to speak at all to the north vietnamese they spoke to the americans and in fact relations

00:35:16between the south vietnamese and the americans became extremely acrimonious and very bitter

00:35:23with the americans and the south vietnamese despite the fact that they were supposedly allies

00:35:30uh diverging sharply on how they thought the negotiations should go but anyway that's another

00:35:36story but anyway the south vietnamese and the americans talked to each other but the south vietnamese

00:35:42didn't really talk to the north vietnamese all the talking with the north vietnamese was done by the

00:35:48united states so it could be that that is what will happen the ukrainians will send someone to istanbul

00:35:57but that someone doesn't talk to the ukrainians to the russians that someone talks to the americans

00:36:04instead and it is the americans then who do the heavy lifting the hard work of negotiating with the

00:36:14russians by the way and for the record i think the russians would actually prefer that i think that the

00:36:26russians are deeply skeptical that any negotiation with the ukrainians would go anywhere at all if it

00:36:36was conducted directly between russia and ukraine i think the russians also have very very bad memories

00:36:47of negotiating with the ukrainians of doing deals with the ukrainians which the ukrainians as far as the

00:36:55russians are concerned didn't honor if the russians turn up and the americans turn up and the ukrainians

00:37:04turn up and the ukrainians refuse to speak to the russians because putin isn't there but talk to the

00:37:12americans who then basically negotiate on their behalf with the russians i think the russians will

00:37:21say to themselves well this is complicated and it will be it will take a very long time but ultimately

00:37:29this would work better for us better in negotiation which ultimately evolves into a negotiation between

00:37:41the united states and russia than a negotiation between russia and ukraine

00:37:48we will get much further and might actually get something that really sticks if we are negotiating

00:37:57with the americans whatever role the ukrainians have and that might lead to an outcome whereas if it's just

00:38:07the ukrainians and us it will probably lead nowhere and if it appears to lead somewhere we can't count

00:38:16whatever it is that we agree with the ukrainians so i think that would could be what happens tomorrow

00:38:24and i think the russians would not be sorry but then of course that takes us back to the americans

00:38:32what would the americans do would they be prepared to act in that way would they be prepared to act as the

00:38:42third party between the ukrainians and the russians perhaps recognizing that a negotiation conducted

00:38:55in that sort of way is inevitably going to end up as a direct negotiation between russia and the united

00:39:04states well who knows there is and i have to say this a very real possibility that nothing will happen

00:39:12tomorrow that the russians will turn up i think by this point there is no doubt that the russians are going

00:39:18to turn up that the russians will turn up the europeans sorry the ukrainians will refuse to speak to them

00:39:27and the americans will go away so that is a genuine possibility but it could be that some kind of talks

00:39:38would get started and again if i am a betting man which by the way i am not i suspect that the

00:39:48talks will be in something like the format that i have described the ukrainians refusing to talk to

00:39:57the russians refusing to meet the russians face to face but the americans having discussions however brief

00:40:05with the americans with kellogg and whitgoth and perhaps conducting long-term negotiations in that

00:40:17format and through them now having said that there is of course a major problem in the kind of format that

00:40:26i've just described which is that the americans are not united in this now i appreciate that there

00:40:34continues to be a view that the americans are united that they're stringing the russians along

00:40:41that they're really are looking in some way to perpetuate the conflict that this is all smoke

00:40:48and mirrors and theater intended to deceive the russians so by now it ought to be obvious

00:40:54that is the intention that the russians are not being deceived but if we put all that aside

00:41:02and say to ourselves that the americans do actually want to move this thing forward in some way

00:41:10then you have the immediate problem that the american negotiated tea negotiating team is divided

00:41:22with each up between each other so whitgoth has one view which is go along with what putin is proposing

00:41:34because there is nothing better kellogg wants to do something completely different which is coerce and bully

00:41:42the russians into agreeing to a freeze so when you have a delegation if that's what the american team

00:41:52that's going to istanbul eventually becomes that is so divided well that is if i can say so a recipe for

00:42:05the russians is going to be called disaster disaster going forward or if not disaster then at some point

00:42:11at the very least a major political row i mean to repeat again if we're talking about the russians

00:42:21we are talking about some of the toughest most experienced negotiators on planet earth the very last thing

00:42:31you want to do is to go into a negotiating chamber with people like that and have a team on your side

00:42:40which is divided and with members who profoundly disagree with each other about the way forward

00:42:51the russians will pick up pick up on that very very quickly and they will use it massively to their

00:42:59advantage and they will do so without the slightest doubt so anyway there we go all

00:43:09chaos confusion and muddle at this time now the basic reason why we are in this position

00:43:22is again and this is a point which i made in my program yesterday but which i think does bear repeating

00:43:29that there is no sincerity on the part of the ukrainians or the europeans at all

00:43:38now you can see this in a long article which has appeared today in the financial times which is

00:43:49which is about the negotiations in theory but which is really not so much about um the negotiations

00:44:00at all but about the way in which um the ukrainians and the europeans have supposedly

00:44:12quietly quietly influenced the americans to take a more hardline anti-russian position it's by guy chazan

00:44:22it's in the financial times and it reads inside the trump administration's quiet shift on ukraine

00:44:30lack of compromise by vladimir putin has led the united states to view him as an obstacle to a ceasefire

00:44:37between moscow and kiev so when you read the whole article through it becomes immediately clear

00:44:45that the ukrainian and european objective now wasn't the objective a few months ago but it is now is

00:44:56either to get a ceasefire in other words to stop the fighting obviously because the russians are advancing

00:45:07and are winning the war and if not to blame the failure to get a ceasefire on the russians

00:45:18that is the objective it is not to try to come to a long-term sustainable settlement of the conflict the whole

00:45:33argument the whole discussion is being couched around getting a ceasefire now here again it bears repeating

00:45:47that ever since putin announced his terms at the foreign ministry meeting on the 14th of june 2024

00:45:59putin has consistently said that russia has agreed temporary ceasefires in the conflict in the past

00:46:08going all the way back to the start of the conflict in 2014 those ceasefires have always

00:46:15worked out badly ukraine has always taken advantage of them it has just done so again with respect to the

00:46:25energy truce which it didn't honor and the ceasefires the short ceasefires that were

00:46:33announced for easter unilaterally announced by the russians for easter and for victory day

00:46:39and the russians therefore are not really in the business of seeking ceasefires they have said and it

00:46:51did represent a certain shift from the russian position that since the united states is so keen on a ceasefire

00:46:59they are in principle prepared to go along with it but only on very stringent terms to prevent ukraine

00:47:08from taking advantage of that ceasefire to improve its own position and putin has been very clear about

00:47:16this and it's been his position all along now again i understand that there are some people who

00:47:22are very angry with putin because he's taken that stand they say that it is impossible that ukraine

00:47:29can achieve anything to its benefit by a 30-day ceasefire i have said already that of course the americans

00:47:39are saying that if there was a 30-day ceasefire they would in effect expect that ceasefire to become

00:47:46permanent in other words they would expect the conflict to become frozen but all right i'm not going to go

00:47:53there i understand that some people don't like the fact that putin is opposed to a ceasefire but the

00:48:00fact is putin is opposed to a ceasefire he always has been he doesn't think a ceasefire is to his

00:48:08advantage or to russia's advantage in a conflict which the russians are winning so given that that is so

00:48:18why constantly bring up this topic of a ceasefire why not take no for an answer that no has been given

00:48:32repeatedly and look at what else can be done every negotiator at some point finds themselves in that

00:48:44position when you have to you come up against the fact that the other side is going to say no and you

00:48:53reached that point in the negotiation where on that specific issue they're not prepared to move and then

00:49:01you have to find the way around and the way around obviously is to do what the russians are saying

00:49:08which is to begin negotiations to try to find a solution to the conflict and over the course of the

00:49:16negotiations trust can be built a consensus on how the conflict could be settled might be reached and a

00:49:29ceasefire might emerge out of it to repeat again that is what happens and has happened in previous conflicts

00:49:42it what ha it's what happened in the negotiations to end the conflict in vietnam or at least to get the

00:49:49united states out of the conflict in vietnam it was what happened in the negotiations that preceded

00:49:58the korean armistice and there have been many other examples you negotiate you try to find a way forward

00:50:08you see where what you can do perhaps to persuade the other side to agree to the ceasefire that you appear to

00:50:17want and eventually if you can satisfy the other side you might be able to reach that point

00:50:28coming and demanding an unconditional ceasefire saying that everything else must be put off later

00:50:36when the other side has said that they're not prepared to go along with that for all kinds of reasons

00:50:43which you may agree with or you may not but which the other side insists upon and appears to believe in

00:50:50well as i said that is refusing to take no for an answer and i would suggest that threatening the russians

00:51:04with massive sanctions if they don't agree to the ceasefire is absolutely not the way forward

00:51:14not just because the russians will inevitably push back and say that they're not prepared to be

00:51:22intimidated and to agree to a ceasefire in that sort of way but because the russians are going to say to themselves

00:51:32well these people aren't really interested in a ceasefire or in peace or in coming to a final settlement of the

00:51:41of the conflict because look what they're doing they're still threatening us they're coming up along with ever

00:51:49greater threats the ceasefire they're talking about is clearly nothing more than a device

00:51:59to obtain a pause so that they can reorganize their objective is to seek victory because their ultimatums

00:52:11to us suggest nothing else so again i wonder whether this has been properly thought through

00:52:22i wonder whether the fundamental weakness and problem in the negotiating strategy that is being followed

00:52:30up to now is really worked out because to me at least it makes absolutely no sense and if you want to

00:52:47strengthen suspicions in moscow that none of this is for real that the talk about ceasefires is all about

00:52:55buying for the ukrainians more time so that they can re-equip and re-arm and you can start the conflict

00:53:03all over again then the way in which the west is going about it by threatening sanctions by general

00:53:09kellogg going on television stations and talking about deployments of european troops to ukraine

00:53:18by the way the european commission is going about it by having meetings with the ukrainians about

00:53:27setting up war crimes tribunals to try russian officials well if you want to feed russian suspicions that

00:53:38this is not really a negotiation intended to arrive at a long lasting just sustainable peace

00:53:52as the russians see it then the west is going about it in exactly the right way now having said all of that

00:54:02the russians have been saying a great deal about what their delegation is going to be talking about

00:54:09when it goes to istanbul and to say it straightforwardly there is no shift visible shift

00:54:17in the russian position they're talking about the need to address the root causes of the conflict

00:54:25they're talking about they're making quite clear uh that they expect all of the four territories to be

00:54:34transferred to russia um they want the ukrainian military to be scaled down they want protections for

00:54:42russian seekers in ukraine they are sticking to their position on all of these things well again one

00:54:52shouldn't expect otherwise on the eve of talks nor should one expect any quick breakthroughs

00:55:02in negotiations any negotiations that take place tomorrow always assuming that those negotiations take

00:55:15place at all peskov made the absolutely valid point that this is a very complicated conflict

00:55:23there is an awful lot to sort through to work through we're talking about protracted discussions

00:55:30that could last many months perhaps longer and there is really no benefit in trying to short

00:55:38circuit the process donald trump's desire to save the lives of soldiers dying on the battlefronts

00:55:48is commendable but that is the reality that tragically is what war causes unless one side

00:56:00one side is prepared to capitulate to the other which at the moment neither side is

00:56:10it's unrealistic to expect quick breakthroughs and an immediate settlement to the conflict because it is

00:56:17not as straightforward as donald trump appears to imagine anyway there it is we will see what happens

00:56:24tomorrow i've explored the various possibilities as of this time i can do no more the europeans as i said yesterday

00:56:37are furious about what has happened they weren't seriously expecting even a possibility or a notional

00:56:48possibility of negotiations starting on thursday their true objective is not to even get a ceasefire

00:56:58it is to get donald trump to sign on the dotted line for further sanctions against russia

00:57:06they believe probably rightly that if they can do that they've recommitted the united states to the side

00:57:14of ukraine in the conflict and i would suggest that that is their genuine objective the financial times article

00:57:25pretty much admits this that the objective is to keep trump focused on the idea of a ceasefire

00:57:35make it appear to make it appear to him that it is the russians that are the obstacle to this ceasefire

00:57:47and to get him to blame the russians and to impose sanctions on the russians when the russians

00:57:55essentially say no that that is the european objective it's the ukrainian objective as well

00:58:02zelensky incidentally gave a press conference to uh various selected members of the western media

00:58:11yesterday including a journalist from the guardian and basically if you plow through

00:58:20his words which are not always easy to follow by the way um he was basically saying the same thing

00:58:27so anyway that is where we are to repeat again if trump does go down that road if he starts imposing

00:58:34sanctions and resume large-scale arms deliveries to ukraine he hasn't yet done so he's given he told

00:58:44the united the congress to grant a license for ukraine to buy 50 million dollars of arms from the united

00:58:53united states he's provided the united states he's provided the green light for germany to provide patriot

00:59:00missile interceptors 100 patriot missile interceptors and an undisclosed number of high mars and possibly

00:59:10attackers missiles to ukraine but if donald trump resumes direct arms transfers to ukraine

00:59:22if he imposes further sanctions on russia then he has become joe biden he's committed to the conflict in exactly the same way

00:59:33that joe biden was it is unequivocally at that point his war and when kiev falls the blame will be placed on him

00:59:46but that's the trap it seems to me that he's falling into it was laid for him from the first day it was a

00:59:55transparently obvious trap at the duran we warned against it last summer but anyway it's the trap that donald trump

01:00:08is in very very serious danger now of falling into we will see whether he does and what exactly it is

01:00:16that he chooses to do we will see whether even if the ukrainians don't turn up tomorrow on the assumption

01:00:24that the russians do which i think is a certainty the americans and the russians start having contacts

01:00:32and maybe at that point this whole slightly

01:00:37well crazy business will begin to turn to take yet another turn now i ought to say and this might be

01:00:48something of a positive sign that yesterday sergey ryabkov russia's deputy foreign minister the man who

01:00:56i suspect will be in overall charge of discussions with the americans about improving relations if we

01:01:04ever get to serious negotiations about that also anyway sergey ryabkov actually said that the americans

01:01:13and the russians and the russians are planning to meet again at some point over the next few weeks to

01:01:20continue the process of developing their own bilateral relations and he also floated the possibility that

01:01:30this could lead to a summit so it looks as if some process progress continues to be made on that front

01:01:39i think it has been a huge mistake by the way again on the american side to make that progress hostage

01:01:47to a settlement of the ukrainian crisis by the way that too was not the case during the cold war

01:02:01during the vietnam negotiations even as the americans and the north vietnamese struggled

01:02:08towards an agreement with each other relations between the united states and

01:02:17north vietnam's superpower allies china and russia actually improved the americans never made the mistake

01:02:28of making the improvement in relations with china and russia hostage to the end of the conflict

01:02:36in vietnam just saying anyway i think the moment has come to move on and i'm going to say again the

01:02:47further thing that ultimately we could be very interested in these negotiations and they are obviously a topic

01:02:56which i'm i can talk about because it's one that i understand quite well but ultimately it continues to be

01:03:05the situation on the ground that is determining the overall situation and i get to say briefly that i suspect

01:03:17that the europeans and the americans probably still have not fully understood how grave how critically grave

01:03:29the situation for the ukrainians is now becoming we are still in my opinion at very early stages the first few weeks

01:03:40of a russian offensive that is probably going to last until at least until november perhaps even december

01:03:50depending on the weather conditions and we get information from the battlefronts every day and all of this information

01:04:03appears to show continued russian advances now over the last couple of programs i have speculated

01:04:15that the big russian advances north of chasse of ya suggest that the russians have now captured the central

01:04:27high-rise area of chasse of ya that it has now passed completely under russian control

01:04:34i believe that this is now confirmed there were reports yesterday reports that go beyond that one

01:04:45article that i saw in redovka there were various commentaries all of which said that the russians

01:04:52are now in full control of the central area of chasse of ya ukrainians still control some outlying positions

01:05:00in some of the micro districts of chasse of ya but the main defense position that the ukrainians had still had

01:05:10left in chasse of ya has now fallen and that means that the russians control well one report said up to 90 percent

01:05:20of the town and that they're expecting to wrap up the remainder over the next week or so and if that is

01:05:30true then the russians are in control of the high ground there's been more reports this time from the

01:05:37siversk area yesterday i talked about russian advances near liman that the russians have apparently entered

01:05:44the villages of colored kolodyezi and red look kub close to liman uh that it looked as if an attack

01:05:54on liman apparently another strategically important position uh controlling the high ground close to

01:06:01slavians is about to come but yesterday and early this morning there were reports including from tass

01:06:12that the russians have made significant further progress in the area around siversk

01:06:19that the russians have now captured the central area of the bitterly fought over village of verko

01:06:28which is located immediately to the east of siversk that they're now

01:06:35busy gaining control of a forested area close to siversk itself and that they have captured most of the

01:06:46village of torskia which lies to the west of siversk the fall of which would threaten the communications of

01:06:55the ukrainian garrison that has been defending siversk so events moving there in the russian direction

01:07:07and there have been further reports again this morning that the russians perhaps they don't

01:07:14control all of bagatir the fortified village i was talking about yesterday i said yesterday

01:07:20that there were reports that the russians have captured the whole of bagatir the very latest

01:07:26film appears to show ukrainian troops still present in the northwest of bagatir but it looks as if the

01:07:38village has largely fallen and importantly the russians have resumed advances to the north of the village as

01:07:46well um it is beginning to look as if ukrainian defenses in this area are starting to crumble and perhaps

01:07:57even more dramatically um after the russian confirmation that they'd captured the village

01:08:05of myrolyubivka west of myrnograd and east of myrnograd and pakrovsk there were more reports later in the

01:08:16evening yesterday that the russians have also captured the village of malinivka north of myrnograd and that

01:08:24they're about to enter the key village which lies immediately to the west of myrnograd and pakrovsk if

01:08:37never nova economic is captured with the russians also tightening and strengthening their positions in

01:08:47southern pakrovsk and south west of pakrovsk where they appear to have at least drone control of the

01:08:56roads the supply roads leading to pakrovsk from the west but if the russians are able to capture

01:09:04novel economic and possibly some villages to the north of it then it seems to me that pakrovsk is in

01:09:13what the russians like to call operational encirclement yes it will still be possible for some ukrainian

01:09:23men and vehicles to move up and down roads to leading into pakrovsk from the north it will not be

01:09:32a tight circle established around pakrovsk but effectively maintaining supplies to the garrison

01:09:45in pakrovsk will become all but impossible and we would be justified at that point in talking or so it

01:09:53seems to me about the beginning of the end of the battle for pakrovsk so all of these things are taking

01:10:02place simultaneously along all the battlefronts there's no sign of the russians losing momentum

01:10:13anywhere on the battlefronts the ukrainians appear to have made another attempt to restart the battle of

01:10:20torresk it seems bizarre that they should continue to throw away brave men and machines in launching more

01:10:29attacks on what are clearly now very strong russian positions in torresk but anyway that's what the

01:10:36ukrainians have chosen to do um another as i said appalling waste of lives and resources but overall

01:10:47the situation on the battlefields becomes more critical for the ukrainians by the day and so far

01:11:03not only does the russian momentum at this very early stage in the offensive

01:11:07this year look significantly stronger than it did at the analogous point of the russian offensive

01:11:19last spring and summer but i would suggest that ukraine cannot survive or at least cannot absorb the damage

01:11:33of another offensive by the russians as successful as the one that took place last summer and

01:11:46if the events of last summer repeat themselves which it looks likely they're going to do maybe on an even

01:11:52bigger scale then we're going to see come the autumn ukraine facing a crisis the like of which we have

01:12:03not seen before now i'm going to just briefly remind people of what the u.s military analyst alex vershinin who works for

01:12:17the royal united services institute said in his last article which by the way has now been republished

01:12:24by responsible statecraft he made the point which i have made many times that wars of attrition

01:12:31can appear to be stagnant immobile to those who just judge wars by movements on a map

01:12:47but when the collapse comes it can be very sudden and at that point movement can be start to become

01:12:56very fast and he gave gives us examples the rapid advances of the allied forces in the last weeks of

01:13:05the first world war the fighting in the first world war the fighting immediately preceding the armistice of

01:13:13november 1918 and also the very very rapid advances of franco's armies in spain during the civil war there

01:13:27which took place from 1938 after the resistance of the republican armies basically collapsed with the

01:13:39with franco's armies able to make advances at speeds which nobody had imagined possible earlier in the

01:13:50conflict so i'm not making any categorical predictions even if ukraine for example finds the russians on the

01:14:02dnieper even if the russians maybe have taken up zaporozhia or about to do so

01:14:11perhaps ukraine could still fight on but the possibility of a collapse

01:14:18has never looked closer and it's clear to me that we are coming closer to that position with every day

01:14:30now i'm going to finish this video by making one very last point which is not about the ukrainian

01:14:35conflict but it's about the issue of the conflict between india and pakistan which is that now i see

01:14:44that even the economist is acknowledging that indian public opinion and the indian government and

01:14:52prime minister modi himself are very very unhappy about the american role in brokering the ceasefire

01:15:00between india and pakistan that indian public opinion has not taken well to this and nor has the opinion of

01:15:08the indian government in fact this episode appears to have created strains between india

01:15:16and the united states if the objective therefore and i'm not saying it was but if the objective was

01:15:24to create tensions between the bricks tensions between china and india then what has happened in reality

01:15:36as a result of this conflict has been not to foster tensions between india and the brics but to foster

01:15:44tensions between india and the united states i'm not saying by the way as i said that it actually was the

01:15:53case that this conflict was intended to create tensions within the bricks perhaps it was perhaps it

01:15:59wasn't i don't know but the result anyway appears to have been the opposite anyway the other thing was

01:16:06prime minister modi has now uh made number of public appearances he gave a very strong

01:16:14speech very defiant speech um claiming victory saying that india had established a new paradigm

01:16:23that pakistan was now under no doubt that if further incidents like the terrorist incident in cashmere

01:16:32took place india would respond and it would be a crushing response and india would no longer make

01:16:39distinctions between terrorist groups and the pakistani government which he clearly believes was

01:16:45responsible for that incident in kashmir anyway the point is that prime minister modi has also uh made

01:16:54himself visible next to a russian-supplied s-400 surface-to-air missile system and apparently

01:17:05he did that in order to refute pakistani claims that this particular system had been destroyed

01:17:13but of course he spoke very calm in a very complimentary way about that the particular indian um unit that

01:17:23operated the system in a way which implied that he was very happy with the way that this system functioned

01:17:32now i say that because there continue to be many reports and many stories about india losing

01:17:39shall we say more than one perhaps a significant number of french-built rafal fighter jets there's even

01:17:51apparently a presentation given by the pakistani air force in which they explain how they shot down

01:18:00these fighter jets i am not watched this presentation and to be clear i don't know exactly what happened

01:18:12but i'm hearing murmurings i'm reading murmurings that the indians were underwhelmed by the performance of the

01:18:21rafales that they were expecting better from them than they got and that they're they're now wondering

01:18:31whether the rafale was quite the effective fighter jet that they'd been led to believe

01:18:38now to be to say this again this is way outside my areas of knowledge i am not an expert on fighter jets

01:18:49rafales or any others the jc-10s that the pakistanis have the chinese supplied fighter jets

01:18:59or air-to-air missiles or any of that kind of thing certainly i don't know very much about the rafale at

01:19:06all if i can say so so i i'm not going to say whether or not that is true but indian sources are now

01:19:15starting to come out and hint that the indians are less than happy with the rafale now of course it

01:19:23france is a member of the western alliance um india has somewhat sought to see thing if france in a

01:19:32slightly different way perhaps still assuming that something of the old gaullist policies

01:19:39was still in play a completely mistaken idea in my opinion but anyway um i do wonder whether enthusiasm

01:19:52in india to buy more military equipment from france and possibly even the united states might now begin to dim

01:20:05i'm not saying that's going to happen um indian procurement policies are complicated to say the least

01:20:14all kinds of criteria seem to arise when they are made but perhaps that possibility is there and

01:20:29if maybe from this point onwards the indians prefer to buy more of their weapons from russia whose s-400

01:20:39appears to have performed well well that might have geopolitical implications going forward well

01:20:48this is where i finished my program today let me remind you again you can find all our programs

01:20:53on our various platforms locals rumble and x you can support our work via patreon and subscribe star and

01:21:00by going to our shop links under this video don't forget if you've liked this video to tick the like

01:21:06button and to check your subscription to this channel that's me for today more from me soon have a very

01:21:14good day

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