Tensions explode as Trump 🧑⚖️ supports direct peace talks between Russia 🇷🇺 and Ukraine 🇺🇦 in Istanbul 🕌, challenging EU 🇪🇺 and UK 🇬🇧 war narratives. Western leaders threaten new sanctions , while Moscow laughs off Zelensky’s latest stunt 🤡. Alexander Mercouris breaks it all down in this high-stakes geopolitical analysis 🧠🌍.
#Trump #IstanbulTalks #RussiaUkraineWar #AlexanderMercouris #PeaceNegotiations #Zelensky #Moscow #Putin #Geopolitics #BreakingNews #UkraineConflict #Sanctions #EUvsRussia #UKPolitics #Trump2024 #CeasefireNow #GlobalDiplomacy #RTNews #WorldAffairs #EastVsWest
#Trump #IstanbulTalks #RussiaUkraineWar #AlexanderMercouris #PeaceNegotiations #Zelensky #Moscow #Putin #Geopolitics #BreakingNews #UkraineConflict #Sanctions #EUvsRussia #UKPolitics #Trump2024 #CeasefireNow #GlobalDiplomacy #RTNews #WorldAffairs #EastVsWest
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00good day today is monday 12th may 2025 and um as i make this program we are on the countdown
00:00:09towards further announcements from the eu of further sanctions against russia one is tempted
00:00:18to say that the more things change the more they remain the same donald trump was inaugurated
00:00:24back on the 20th of january he spoke about a diplomatic initiative to end the war
00:00:30many people had grave doubts that that would happen he did come up with various ideas and
00:00:39suggestions not so much about how to end the war the conflict in ukraine itself but apparently to
00:00:47try to improve relations with russia the initiative the momentum gradually faded away
00:00:54by the end of march it had become obvious at least to me that no real progress of any kind was being
00:01:05made at all and anyway we are where we are now let's just retrace our steps over what has been
00:01:12happening over the last 24 hours at the end of my last program i discussed president putin's response
00:01:21to the ultimatum delivered by the four european leaders plus zelensky in kiev yesterday demanding
00:01:31that russia i'm sorry on saturday demanding that russia agree to a unconditional 30-day
00:01:41ceasefire by the end of today failing which further sanctions would be imposed we were given to
00:01:50understand by the european leaders that they discussed this whole thing with donald trump and
00:01:56that the united states is on board with this proposal and would support the sanctions itself and would
00:02:05indeed move forward and impose further sanctions anyway the european leaders using incredibly aggressive
00:02:15and belligerent language and indeed insulting language about president putin language which would work
00:02:25work against any serious move to begin negotiations or to agree a ceasefire anyway they announced their
00:02:35ultimatum on saturday and after a few hours late in the evening or more to be more precise early on sunday
00:02:46morning president putin gave his response he rejected the ultimatum he explained that a ceasefire given
00:02:57previous ukrainian failures to abide by ceasefires was an unworkable idea he'd already explained in the past
00:03:06why ceasefires 30-day ceasefires or longer ceasefires um if they were not monitored properly if military
00:03:18assistance to ukraine was not ended if intelligence assistance to ukraine was not ended would merely result
00:03:25in ukraine strengthening its military position and putin said that in light of that he was not prepared
00:03:33to accept the ultimatum or agree to a ceasefire instead he made his own proposal which was essentially by
00:03:41the way a repeat of a proposal he has been making for a long time years in fact for direct negotiations
00:03:50between russia and ukraine to resume they were broken off as he said by ukraine in april 2022 after the
00:04:01istanbul agreement was mostly agreed and initialed anyway he proposed that those agreements resumed
00:04:11he said that he would send a delegation with a chief negotiator to istanbul on thursday thursday the 15th
00:04:24of may and he was hoping or expecting that the ukrainians would do the same now there's a number of points
00:04:33i want to make here which cover um points that various people have made for example a number of
00:04:40people have said that it's not realistic to imagine that ukraine would be able to benefit significantly from
00:04:48a 30 day ceasefire well i'm not sure actually that that is in fact the case certainly soldiers can be
00:04:55rested and rotated after 30 days trenches can be rebuilt reef fortifications can be repaired counter
00:05:04attacks can be organized and staged but the key thing to understand is that even general kellogg or
00:05:11perhaps more precisely general kellogg the sole begetter of the idea of the 30 day ceasefire
00:05:19has said that in practice if there is a 30 day ceasefire it will become open-ended the russians would
00:05:27certainly be expected to abide by it to continue to abide by it beyond those 30 days and the expectation
00:05:36was that it would become a permanent ceasefire and lead to a freeze of the conflict which of course
00:05:46the russians have repeatedly said they're not prepared to agree to but the real objection to the
00:05:54ceasefire i suspect from a russian point of view is that unless all these various provisions that putin
00:06:02has been talking about the various nuances were brought into effect the ending of military supplies
00:06:11intelligence assistance to the ukrainians the proper monitoring of the ceasefire by impartial third parties
00:06:20the ceasefire that was proposed on saturday would have been monitored by the united states which people
00:06:30consistently forget is a party to the conflict something that is inconsistent with the pretense
00:06:40that the united states is a mediator in this conflict the new york times has told us how deeply involved
00:06:49during the biden administration the united states actually was in managing the war in ukraine let alone
00:06:56simply supplying weapons and economic and military assistance to ukraine anyway the point is that if
00:07:02such a ceasefire were ever to be brought into effect as night followed day allegations would circulate very
00:07:12quickly that it had been violated the fingers would be pointing at the russians they would be true
00:07:20they would be accused of violating the agreement that would then lead to economic and military pressure
00:07:28against russia being stepped up and it would put the russians on the back foot in media and public
00:07:37relations terms something which for obvious reasons they don't want to find themselves in and of course
00:07:44if western troops french and british troops were to enter ukraine which would be difficult to achieve over
00:07:54the period of a 30-day ceasefire but i suspect not completely impossible especially given the reports that
00:08:03there are already french troops stationed in romania well then it would be from a russian point of view
00:08:12even more important to refuse such a ceasefire in the first place anyway that is the first thing to
00:08:20say about the russian refusal whatever people may feel about this idea of a 30-day ceasefire whether
00:08:29they think it is a good idea or a bad idea ultimately and this again needs to be reiterated
00:08:39it it is the russians who will decide whether they are going to accept it or not from their point of
00:08:48view it is understandable why they would not accept it and given that they are intent on rejecting it
00:08:59it makes little point to go on repeatedly demanding it anyway that's the first thing i was going to say the
00:09:08second the second the second point and it's a point i've made many times is that the russian argument
00:09:15that there is no reason why you have to have a ceasefire before starting negotiations in most conflict
00:09:25situations negotiations begin as the parties move closer to each other a consensus develops to agree a
00:09:37ceasefire and a ceasefire and a ceasefire is at that point agreed
00:09:45declaring a ceasefire before nothing has been agreed at all when the gulf between the two sides is as
00:09:53enormous as it currently is is simply a recipe for trouble it is a recipe for failure or at best the
00:10:02freezing of the conflict which is something that the russians have repeatedly said they will not agree
00:10:08to and which is not in their interest especially given that they're winning the war so anyway that's
00:10:17what i wanted to say is that russian position was predictable and it was understandable anyway after
00:10:25president putin said this and after he proposed that there be a meeting between russian and ukrainian
00:10:33negotiators in istanbul on thursday in order to resume negotiations between the two parties well we first had
00:10:43we we we had a succession of posts messages on truth social by donald trump now bear in mind that according
00:10:56to the official narrative donald trump supported the ultimatum that the western powers the european powers
00:11:08announced announced on saturday and had agreed to impose the sanctions on russia if the europeans um went ahead
00:11:21and did so because the russians did not agree to the ceasefire but i have pointed out that his original
00:11:30message on truth social in which he spoke about supporting sanctions against russia was written in vague
00:11:40and ambiguous terms and seemed heavily qualified he spoke of the united states imposing sanctions on
00:11:52whichever party um whichever party violated the ceasefire um presumably after its terms were agreed
00:12:02which of course never happened um he spoke in neutral language about russia and ukraine
00:12:11careful neither to criticize neither and he spoke in ways that suggested that he didn't really believe
00:12:22that a ceasefire would be agreed he used words like ideally and hopefully which all suggested to me
00:12:30that he had little real belief in the ceasefire coming into effect that he was reconciled to the
00:12:41inevitability of imposing further sanctions on the russians if they didn't comply with the ultimatum
00:12:51but that his heart wasn't really in it and in my program yesterday i said that i thought that the best thing
00:13:00that president trump could do after putin's proposal for a meeting between the ukrainians and the russians
00:13:10in istanbul on thursday was to forget all about that forget about ceasefire uh ceasefires and
00:13:20ultimatums and ultimatums and further sanctions but instead instead tell zelensky that the game is now up
00:13:30he must go he must send his people to istanbul on thursday negotiations should begin without any further delay
00:13:41because that is the only realistic way forward if there is going to be ultimately any end to the war
00:13:49and when i said that in my program yesterday i said that i did not seriously expect that president trump
00:13:58would act in that way it seemed to me that he was by this point deeply committed to the ultimatum plan
00:14:07and that i expected that the europeans and the americans gave every sign of being taken by surprise
00:14:15and nonplussed and nonplussed i expected that they would go ahead with their sanctions announcement
00:14:22later today and i didn't expect that donald trump would act in the way that i thought best for him
00:14:32by urging the ukrainians to turn up and to begin the negotiations on thursday well here i will admit
00:14:43i was taken by surprise because immediately shortly after putin spoke president trump published his first
00:14:53message on true social and it seemed unlike his previous message the message in which he spoke about
00:15:02perhaps the united states imposing sanctions together with the europeans if the ceasefire was not honored
00:15:14which seemed to be tepid certainly by his standards this late this other subsequent message on true
00:15:23social by contrast seemed almost euphoric he spoke about his he gave the impression that he thought that
00:15:32some great breakthrough had been achieved that he was full of hope that the conflict would end he
00:15:39spoke about how the bloodbath in ukraine might soon come to an end and what a wonderful thing that would be
00:15:49it appeared that he saw saturday as a great day and that he was looking forward to big events
00:16:01over the course of this week big events obviously being the beginning of negotiations between the ukrainians
00:16:09and the russians and then a few hours passed and he made his wish for negotiations to begin even if no
00:16:22ceasefire was in place he made his wish explicit he published another message on true social
00:16:32and he said this president putin of russia doesn't want to have a ceasefire agreement with ukraine but
00:16:39rather wants to meet on thursday in turkey to negotiate a possible end to the bloodbath the word bloodbath
00:16:46bloodbath is capitalized ukraine should agree to this immediately and the word immediately
00:16:55is also capitalized at least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible
00:17:01and if it is not european leaders and the united states will know where everything stands and can
00:17:08proceed accordingly i am starting to doubt that ukraine will make a deal with putin who's too busy
00:17:18celebrating the victory of world war ii which could not have been one not even close without the united
00:17:24the united states of america have the meeting now have the meeting now the words have the meeting now
00:17:30again capitalized so late in the afternoon on saturday in the united states that message appeared
00:17:42and apparently it caused consternation across europe and not just across europe but i suspect
00:17:50among some people within his own administration because shortly before this message appeared
00:17:56donald trump's own peace envoy keith kellogg published his own message i believe on x in which he said that
00:18:08the first needed to be a ceasefire and only then negotiations this has been general kellogg's consistent
00:18:18stance ever since he wrote his article back in april 2024 he is overwhelmingly focused on freezing the
00:18:28conflict he sees the ceasefire as the mechanism to do that he's not really uh i suspect interested in
00:18:38the kind of negotiation that putin believes in one which would be intended to address what putin
00:18:47cause the root causes of the conflict as general kellogg made clear in his april 2024 article he doesn't even
00:18:59fully exclude the possibility that ukraine might eventually enter nato eventually maybe in 10 or 20 years
00:19:11time and as i've pointed out in previous programs a u.s media report i believe in the new york times
00:19:21saying that u.s officials had told the ukrainians at the recent meetings in paris and london where the
00:19:32americans set out their proposal their proposals that
00:19:36that though trump would never agree to ukraine joining nato a future american
00:19:46administration might have a different stance on this issue the only official
00:19:53at that time in london who could have said that was kellogg himself and i have no doubt that it was indeed
00:20:01kellogg who told the ukrainians this so kellogg
00:20:07working on his plan trying to obtain a freeze on the conflict of the conflict looking eventually to
00:20:16give the ukrainians pretty much all they want eventually their territory plus nato membership but not
00:20:24immediately not in a year's time or two years time perhaps in 5 10 or 15 or 20 years time anyway
00:20:34kellogg supported zelensky's position and said that first there has to be a ceasefire and then there have
00:20:42to be talks which is the diametric opposite of what the president who has appointed him donald trump says
00:20:53in this message on truth social which i have just read out president putin of russia doesn't want to have
00:21:02a ceasefire agreement with ukraine but rather wants to meet on thursday ukraine should agree to this
00:21:09immediately have the meeting now so that's donald trump's stance stance and of course it wasn't just donald trump's stance or
00:21:20general kellogg's stance it was the united stance of all of the european leaders macron for example said that you know putin
00:21:28had made one small step toward in the right direction but clearly a ceasefire was needed
00:21:34and all of the other european leaders basically were saying went on saying the same thing and zelensky
00:21:42himself up to that moment had been saying the same thing he too appeared to reject the proposal for the talks
00:21:52in istanbul on thursday the 15th of may until of course this message from trump appeared on truth social
00:22:03and i have read i think it was somewhere in the british media or an article that says that the europeans were
00:22:11not only stunned but actually livid by this message of donald trump's
00:22:19they felt that the ground was being cut from under their feet that their attempt to intimidate and scare
00:22:28the russians
00:22:32had been um had been negated that they'd imagined this is from the article itself that they'd got
00:22:41putin into a corner i don't understand how by the way that they'd imagine that they'd got putin
00:22:48into a corner and then along comes trump and undermines everything by publishing this truth
00:22:56social post anyway it seems that the europeans were livid about this true social message and shortly
00:23:06after the british foreign secretary david lammy teleformed marco rubio the u.s secretary of state
00:23:14clearly one thing reassurance that the american policy had not changed and in fact that was
00:23:21precisely the reassurance that marco rubio gave to david lammy secretary of state this is from the
00:23:28state department's website website secretary of state marco rubio spoke today with uk foreign secretary
00:23:35david lammy the secretary reaffirmed the u.s position on the russia ukraine war our top priority remains
00:23:45bringing an end to the fighting and an immediate ceasefire not notice getting talk started between russia
00:23:56and ukraine so we could see that after the um true social post from donald trump which appeared to urge
00:24:09the negotiations marco rubio was in effect contradicting his boss and telling the europeans
00:24:18basically don't worry it's just trump sounding off again on true social we're all with you we're fully
00:24:26behind you the sanctions will come just go ahead implement the ultimatum and we will support you well
00:24:36understandably perhaps the europeans couldn't just leave it at that and neither could zelensky himself
00:24:46and of course he clearly doesn't want negotiations with the russians and he reaffirmed after the truth
00:24:55social post by donald trump appeared that he still expected in fact insisted on a ceasefire before the start
00:25:08of negotiations but then he said something which was clearly intended to attract attention and to some
00:25:19in some way counter the effect of putin's offer by declaring grandly that he would go to istanbul himself
00:25:34and was expecting to meet no less a person than vladimir putin there now axios the u.s magazine says that
00:25:44zelensky has made it clear that he intends to go to istanbul and be there on the 15th of may
00:25:52whether putin turns up or not and whether there is a ceasefire or not i have to say i have not myself
00:26:04been able to find any evidence that this is indeed what zelensky is saying about his declaring his readiness
00:26:16to go to istanbul but that of course is a public fact but the only statements of zelensky which i have been able to find
00:26:25appear to reaffirm his insistence that before any kind of negotiations or diplomatic contacts begin
00:26:34the russians must first agree to the ceasefire so if that is correct then frankly whether he's offering
00:26:45to go himself or not is irrelevant because on the assumption that the russians stick to that position as i
00:26:55fully accept expect and do not declare a ceasefire as i also fully expect then neither he zelensky nor any
00:27:08other ukrainian official is going to go to istanbul at all and i should say that other ukrainian officials
00:27:18members of zelensky's team people like yermak and podolyak in effect seem to be saying the same thing
00:27:24the same thing so i don't myself expect zelensky to go to istanbul on thursday because i don't expect
00:27:34there to be a ceasefire in place before thursday and for the record of the russian news agency norvesty
00:27:44contacted the turkish authorities and they said that they had no information about any planned trip
00:27:54by zelensky to istanbul at all for the record i think that zelensky's
00:28:05offer if that is what it is uh is one that no one should take seriously
00:28:13it is again an example of how for zelensky and indeed for his entire government public relations
00:28:24is the single most important aspect of their conduct of the conflict
00:28:31let's assume that zelensky goes to istanbul on thursday and putin doesn't turn up
00:28:40what exactly is he going to do is he going to meet with the russian representatives including the
00:28:46chief negotiator that putin and his aide yuri ushekov have said they will appoint and send to istanbul
00:28:57well presumably not he will doubtless say that meeting with these underlings is beneath him he is
00:29:05the president of ukraine and he only meets with the really important people or to be more precise
00:29:12the only important person who is putin himself let us say that zelensky takes a different stance and
00:29:22does meet with the russian negotiators what exactly is he going to say to them that's going to be in
00:29:31any way different from what a properly briefed and prepared team of negotiators appointed by ukraine would
00:29:39say what is his need to be in istanbul separate from that of a properly organized team of negotiators
00:29:51and if which i don't seriously expect putin himself does turn up in istanbul what is zelensky
00:30:02going to agree with putin over the course of just a few
00:30:09minutes or perhaps an hour or so of meetings are they going to resolve the entire conflict
00:30:17over the course of one conversation are they going to agree to conduct the entire negotiation
00:30:26by themselves zelensky has in the past said that though every other ukrainian official
00:30:36is precluded from talking to the russians as a result of his october 2022 decree he himself
00:30:44is in some way exempt from the effect of this decree and so he can conduct the negotiations
00:30:51with russia all by himself yet does he really think the russians would take that proposal seriously
00:30:58does he really think that putin would take it seriously the whole proposal is absurd it is ridiculous
00:31:07it is simply again as i said an attempt to steal the limelight to somehow um draw attention away
00:31:16from putin's proposal for negotiations and to make it seem as if zelensky is doing something big
00:31:24and important when what he's actually proposing that he himself go to istanbul is confirmation of his own
00:31:39complete lack of seriousness in his approach to this matter anyway that is what zelensky said maybe
00:31:48he will go to istanbul probably he won't i don't seriously believe putin will go a negotiating team
00:31:56from russia will no doubt arrive in istanbul putin said when he gave his statement on saturday late on
00:32:07saturday or early in the morning on sunday um that he would speak to erdogan on the following day
00:32:15to see whether erdogan and the turks would be prepared to provide facilities for the negotiation
00:32:24putin was as good as he was word he did speak to order one on sunday order one exactly as i anticipated
00:32:36told him that of course turkey will do everything to make the arrangements for a meeting between the
00:32:42russians and the ukrainians possible they will make all the facilities all the conference
00:32:49and facilities and all of that available but in reality as i said the fact is that it's no it's not
00:33:02going to happen there won't be a ukrainian team going to istanbul the russians might go there but if they
00:33:11do they will find that they have no one to speak to this whole strange exercise this move
00:33:19and counter move that we have seen over the last couple of days play out as i said has been
00:33:29a exercise not even in shadow boxing it's been an exercise in presentational battles
00:33:42to repeat again putin has not budged from his position that there have to be negotiations
00:33:49leading to a ceasefire and the europeans and the ukrainians and ultimately the americans also
00:33:56will come to what the americans are going to do shortly the americans also have not shifted from
00:34:04their position that there cannot be a negotiations without a ceasefire there is a fundamental difference
00:34:11it is not merely a difference in procedure
00:34:17if negotiations take place without a ceasefire then the pressure will be on the ukrainians and
00:34:27we could start to see the negotiations lead towards a fundamental settlement of peace settlement on russian terms
00:34:37if there is a ceasefire
00:34:39before negotiations have started more likely than not or at least the best that we can we are likely to
00:34:49see is a freeze of the conflict more likely we will see pressure grow on the russians to make
00:34:59substantive concessions to ukraine negating whatever advantages that they have gained in the war
00:35:07plausibly we could see the ceasefire breakdown in circumstances where the ukrainians would call
00:35:15on the europeans and ultimately the united states to become involved and ultimately the advantage would
00:35:26go to the ukrainians so this is not a simple procedural question as some people may be tempted to say it is a
00:35:40fundamental difference in approach to the way in which the negotiations are conducted and it highlights
00:35:47the immense gulf which exists between the two sides anyway there we are we found ourselves
00:35:55in this strange situation at the moment now trump wants the ukrainians or said that he wants the ukrainians
00:36:04to go to istanbul to initiate discussions with the russians zelensky clearly doesn't want to send a
00:36:13negotiating team but he's offered to send to go himself but he seems to be saying at least as far as i can
00:36:20judge he is still saying that if he goes it will only be after a ceasefire has been agreed it looks
00:36:30likely that there will not be any ukrainian presence in istanbul because it is all but inconceivable that
00:36:39between now and then we will have a ceasefire so the russians will turn up and they will be
00:36:47in an empty room because the ukrainians won't be there and they will go back to moscow and the war will
00:36:57continue before then before then based on statements they have been making over the last few hours
00:37:10the europeans will announce sanctions and the initiative of this well i'm sure all of the european
00:37:18countries are involved but the germans have been speaking about it most a short time ago the german
00:37:26spokesman the german government spokesman said that there were only 12 hours left before the time limit set
00:37:34by the ultimatum on saturday expired the clock was ticking if the clock runs out the european union
00:37:44will move towards the further sanctions now i suspect those sanctions won't be put in place immediately
00:37:52there will have to be a process of consultation they will no doubt have to be voted on in the european
00:37:59council orban and fitzo have the power in theory to veto those sanctions they have consistently refused
00:38:08to do so up to now whenever we've reached that point of decision even if they do veto the sanctions i
00:38:17expect that ways will be found to circumvent that and the europeans will nonetheless in their own way
00:38:26separately managed to impose their sanctions against russia the only question therefore is
00:38:34what will the united states do will trump wait to see what happens on the 15th of may will you wait
00:38:45to see if the ukrainians do actually go to istanbul his latest post on truth social
00:38:57rather implies it if they don't go will he follow through on what he says
00:39:05that it proves that ukraine isn't really interested in a peace agreement with russia i'm starting to doubt
00:39:15that ukraine will make a deal with putin and will his anger then be directed at ukraine
00:39:26and at those who have been telling him to support ukraine the europeans and his own peace envoy general
00:39:34kellogg or will he instead allow this truth social post that he's published to vanish into the ether and
00:39:46once the sanctions from europe are imposed will he come out and announce that the united states supports them
00:39:55by imposing analogous sanctions of their own i am going to here express my confident guess that he will do the
00:40:08the united states that he has put himself in a position where it is going to be very difficult now
00:40:18to reverse course at some point over the last few weeks he made the critical decision to go with kellogg
00:40:29and rubio against wickdorf and vance he decided to support their approach to
00:40:39ending or freezing the conflict in ukraine he will impose the sanctions that they tell him
00:40:51he should impose they will no doubt tell him that if he does impose those sanctions it will put
00:40:59unbearable pressure on the russians and force the russians to come round
00:41:06and i suspect that inwardly he is deeply skeptical his lack of enthusiasm as i said in his penultimate
00:41:18truth social post the one in which he spoke about sanctions speaks for itself but having already made
00:41:26commitments to this effect probably to the ukrainians and certainly to the europeans i don't really see
00:41:34how he can go back on them now there is going to be a huge debate and discussion going forward about
00:41:43what donald trump's ultimate intentions always were whether he was really interested in a peace with
00:41:51ukraine whether there was a serious attempt to negotiate with the russians at all whether this was
00:42:01on the contrary merely an exercise in pulling the wool over the russians eyes and getting them to agree
00:42:07to a freeze of the conflict my own personal view is that trump never really worked it out he never
00:42:15really got on top of the detail in the way that his vice president jd vance has done i think he assumed
00:42:24that if he went with vance the russians would indeed back down probably what kellogg has been telling him
00:42:34i think he's dismayed that that isn't happening i don't think he wants to go down the sanctions road
00:42:44but he's far too committed to that road now to back away and as i said in previous programs if he starts
00:42:54going down the route of sanctions inevitably with every further step and escalation of the conflict
00:43:02he will be pressed by the same assembly of people that he has gone along with up to now starmer
00:43:13macron maths before then schultz uh kellogg rubio and the others not just to escalate sanctions against
00:43:22russia even further but to step up military support for ukraine so that at some point over the course of the
00:43:31the next few weeks or months he will become joe biden too pursuing the identical policies towards russia
00:43:40and ukraine towards the ukrainian conflict as a whole that was pursued that were pursued by joe biden
00:43:49one without having however the same conviction in those policies that joe biden one had well that is
00:44:00what i expect will happen
00:44:04what trump's ultimate intentions were what he privately thought what he discussed with his officials whether
00:44:15these arguments that we've seen between whitgoth and vance on the one hand and rubio and kellogg on the
00:44:25other whether they were real or not i think one thing i really must say now is it in the end doesn't actually
00:44:35even matter because once the course has been taken once the united states commits itself
00:44:45to the policy that it looks as if it's now going to follow
00:44:52that is what will determine what comes next not whatever hesitations or doubts or arguments
00:45:02what happens existed previously anyway there we go that's that's i think where events are now taking
00:45:12us it's been as i said an extraordinary couple of days now there's been a huge amount of time
00:45:21dedicated to trying to analyze what the europeans and the americans have been doing as for the europeans
00:45:30i may as well here express my own opinion i don't think they have ever expected putin to agree to the ceasefire
00:45:42i think they know perfectly well that the unconditional ceasefire proposal is one that the russians would
00:45:48never agree to i don't think they want direct negotiations between ukraine and russia i think that
00:45:57they are extremely nervous of any outcome of those negotiations because they know that with the
00:46:03russians pressing their advantage the result of negotiations conducted in the current conditions
00:46:12would eventually be a ukrainian capitulation to the russians i think the entire object of the exercise
00:46:21has been to block the peace initiative that the europeans were worried donald trump was conducting
00:46:33with the russians in earnest i think that they seized on this idea of a ceasefire the one that was prepared
00:46:43proposed by kellogg precisely because they knew that it would be unacceptable to the russians
00:46:50and precisely because they hoped that by doing so the entire negotiation process would be wrecked
00:46:59and that trump would be back at square one becoming joe biden too all over again that is what i think the
00:47:12europeans were up to the europeans were up to and it was a fairly transparent trap as far as i can see
00:47:21you can't expect people like starmer macron and the others to come up with anything more sophisticated
00:47:30and it worked and the reason obviously ultimately why they do not want
00:47:36a negotiated settlement of the conflict in ukraine is not just because it would mean that ukraine would make
00:47:46major concessions to russia but because the europeans ultimately do not want to see their worst nightmare
00:47:56come true which is a serious improvement in relations between the united states and russia and up ultimately
00:48:04a rapprochement between the united states and russia i always assumed that if there were negotiations
00:48:16between the americans and the russians to try to end the conflict in ukraine the europeans would do everything within their power to derail them
00:48:27and it looks as if they're about to succeed i always thought that if there were serious negotiations initiated
00:48:37by the americans to end the conflict in ukraine the europeans would do everything within their power
00:48:46to derail those negotiations for that reason to prevent an american russian rapprochement
00:48:54which would marginalize europe in global politics and it was precisely for that reason
00:49:04precisely because of those concerns that alex christopher and i said way back in the summer of 2024
00:49:16that if donald trump was wise he would stay out of the whole business of trying to negotiate peace in ukraine
00:49:27entirely he would know that diplomatically speaking it is a bridge too far he would simply say it was not his
00:49:37war it was joe biden's war the united states had done all that it can to support ukraine it could do no more
00:49:46and would walk away that would have been a clear-cut simple and strong position to have taken and the time to
00:49:56have taken it was in january directly after president trump's inauguration well he didn't do that and exactly
00:50:06as alex and i predicted and you can hunt down those programs back in the summer of 2024 when we discussed all
00:50:16of this exactly as we predicted he is p that is to say trump is now being drawn back in more and more articles
00:50:27are now appearing saying that this has become donald trump's war um when kiev falls and it's much more likely
00:50:37now that that is how the war is going to evolve with kiev falling the blame will be placed on him his maga
00:50:48movements are already disaffected and unhappy and they're likely to become more disaffected and more
00:50:58unhappy still and when kiev does fall he will be left with all the fingers pointing at him and he he being
00:51:09blamed for the outcome and his own support base in the united states demoralized and less willing to
00:51:20support him than they once were that was what we predicted would happen
00:51:28and hello and behold it is all coming true anyway let us not devote further time to this
00:51:36now let's look at the other side the russians i cannot imagine that putin himself
00:51:45seriously expects that the ukrainians are going to send their own negotiating team to istanbul
00:51:54on thursday it looked for a time to me as if this proposal from putin to send a negotiating team to istanbul
00:52:09and to wait for the ukrainians to turn up it looked to me as if this was
00:52:15a rapid response to the european ultimatum made on saturday it actually turns out that it was a lot more
00:52:26complicated than that because we're now getting all sorts of information especially from the slovak prime
00:52:34minister robert fitzel that in fact throughout the discussions
00:52:41in moscow celebrating the soviet union's victory and the allied victory in the second world war
00:52:51putin in meeting after meeting was telling the visiting delegations that it was his in plan it was his
00:52:59intention to invite the ukrainians to resume direct negotiations now in the west
00:53:11we flatter ourselves we assume that we are the main interlocutors that the russians have
00:53:21in this conflict apart obviously from the ukrainians themselves we are the people that putin and the
00:53:31russians speak towards or make every couch every statement for um most people in the west i expect who
00:53:44think about this conflict assume that putin made his proposal on saturday mostly in order to win over or win
00:53:55the good wishes of u.s president trump i doubt actually that this is the case for the russians
00:54:08as they've discovered over the last three years it is world opinion outside what they still call the collective
00:54:18west that matters most they want to make it clear to to china to their brazilian and african and asian
00:54:29and other friends that it is the russians always who are being reasonable in this conflict they've
00:54:41seen all this rhetoric coming from the united states about the importance of a ceasefire
00:54:49and a negotiation so they were anxious to counter it by announcing that they were prepared to enter
00:54:57immediately into direct negotiations with ukraine taking istanbul one the agreement reached in april 2022
00:55:10as the starting point so that i think is what the russians were doing and that explains why putin was
00:55:21apparently telling every delegation that came to moscow for the victory day parade that this was his
00:55:30intention to announce this proposal for negotiations to resume in istanbul as soon as the victory day
00:55:40celebrations were out of the way the european ultimatum perhaps changed
00:55:51some of the rhetoric that the russians used when they announced their proposal when putin announced
00:56:00their proposal but he did not change the substance of what the russians had already decided
00:56:08now unusually there's a good article or at least a fairly good article not a very good article about all of
00:56:15this in the london times and it's by mark bennett's words are putin's words change but not his demand
00:56:23that ukraine surrenders mark bennett's uh incidentally is a british journalist who used to work for the
00:56:31russian news agency norversity and though he was never really a comfortable fit at norversity i suspect he has
00:56:39a better understanding of russian thinking that most british journalists do but anyway he goes on to
00:56:48say the russian president offered offers talks with kiev but translation from clem kremlinies suggests he
00:56:56will accept no no less than zelensky's capitulation and swathes of territory and it says that putin's
00:57:04remarks were in essence very familiar although he proposed direct talks with ukraine putin ruled
00:57:11out an immediate ceasefire and repeated the kremlin's insistence that any negotiations should address the
00:57:18root causes of the war in translation from kremlin east to english this is a reference at the very least
00:57:27to the removal of the president zelensky's pro-western government in kiev and a legally binding agreement
00:57:34from nato that ukraine will never be allowed to join about the second there is no doubt whatsoever
00:57:42and it is also likely to be referenced to russia's long-standing demand that ukraine should surrender
00:57:48crimea as well as four regions in its east and south including major cities such as kherson and zaporozhye
00:57:55and um he then quotes mark bennett's quotes comments by um peskov which appeared to support that and
00:58:12then mark bennett's comes to how the russians feel about the threats the new threats of sanctions coming
00:58:23from europe threats by european leaders to impose massive new sanctions on russia if it refuses to
00:58:32silence its guns will have been greeted with little more than a shrug by the kremlin russia is already the
00:58:40world's most sanctioned country and despite freak frequent predictions of economic collapse there are few
00:58:49signs that living standards in moscow and st petersburg have fallen significantly enough to force putin to
00:58:56call off a war that he sees as his historical mission i i would by the way challenge that so far
00:59:07there's been no real sign that the sanctions have caused any sustained decline in russian living standards
00:59:15at all if anything the contrary is true certainly over the last two years 2023 2024 living standards have
00:59:28actually risen and then mark bennett's continues and so the kremlin repeats its demands week after week
00:59:39couched occasionally in different language but with no fundamental change to insist its insistence that
00:59:47the only way to peace is for ukraine to give russia everything it wants the film groundhog day in which
00:59:56the actor bill murray is forced to relive the same day over and over again is immensely popular in russia i
01:00:04didn't know that by the way i wonder whether that's even true judging by his comments on sunday
01:00:10putin also appears to be a fan welcome to the kremlin's time loop well i think we can agree with
01:00:20the substance here and it's good that at least one british journalist gets it but of course the language
01:00:27is completely wrong ultimately the russians are winning the war and if this is indeed a war
01:00:37that they consider to be existential for themselves and they are winning the war and they do believe
01:00:46that the conflict is existential for themselves then we should not be surprised if the russians
01:00:55insist that any peace agreement must satisfy their demands and what they would say
01:01:06is their legitimate concerns as i have said in program after program and it's strange how difficult it is for
01:01:15people in the west to come to terms with this the outcome of wars
01:01:24is determined by the winner not the loser it is unreasonable or it's not unreasonable it is unrealistic
01:01:34for losers to believe that they can dictate the terms of the peace
01:01:41and people who come along and say angrily that the russians must accept a ceasefire because if they
01:01:50don't accept a ceasefire that means that they're not generally interested in peace i mean what they are
01:02:00in effect saying is that the russians should forego
01:02:05the victory that they believe that they believe that they have won in order to prove
01:02:16their commitment
01:02:18to peace which no one in the west is going to give them any credit for
01:02:26after all we now have not just threats but actual proposals to set up war crimes tribunals
01:02:37to try russian officials that is not realistic either anyway there it is that's where we are in this
01:02:47conflict meanwhile the war goes on there were more drone and missile attracts by each side upon the other
01:02:53and um there's been by the way further news of more russian advances over the last 24 hours
01:03:04um it there are reports for example that the russians are about to take control of the strategically
01:03:12important and heavily defended village of baghettir in southwest donbass this is the last remaining
01:03:24fortified position that the ukrainians had created west of kurakovo and the andrevka fortified area
01:03:34if baghettir falls um the way is open to advance into dnieper region and to perhaps ultimately the dnieper
01:03:47itself and there's also been reports that the russians have captured another village somewhat to the north
01:03:56a village called katlerovka uh we're told that military military structures strange expression military
01:04:05russian military structures have told tass that katlerovka is in fact neighbors on the dnieper region to the
01:04:14southwest of pakrovsk its liberation paves the way to the neighboring region in other words
01:04:24to dnieper region as well if you look at a map both of these places baghettir and
01:04:32um katlerovka lie well to the west southwest of pakrovsk the russians have in effect outflanked
01:04:43pakrovsk from the west um if they do press further west from katlerovka specifically and move on to the
01:04:56the next big fortified village which is i believe novel pavlovka which is an important logistics
01:05:05hub then ukrainian defenses in this area and in the area of pakrovsk will become increasingly weakened
01:05:15and well there were reports again yesterday not just reports but further film confirmation of the presence
01:05:28of russian troops in the village of zvirove which lies directly to the southwest of pakrovsk it's
01:05:38practically an outlying suburb of pakrovsk and as i discussed in an earlier program that could mean
01:05:48that suggestions that the russians have established some kind of foothold in southern pakrovsk are
01:05:56actually true and that fighting within pakrovsk has already begun but let me emphasize that i don't
01:06:07know this for a fact this is purely an inference based on the fragmentary reports we're getting from a
01:06:15different different parts of the battlefield anyway one way or the other it does look as if the noose
01:06:24around pakrovsk is now steadily tightening and things for the ukrainians are getting harder and harder
01:06:34i personally think that we will see the attack on pakrovsk begin in earnest this month and well we will see
01:06:43how long it lasts now there's been lots of news of other russian ukraine russian advances elsewhere along
01:06:51the battlefronts i ought to say that in every part of the battlefront every day now we see russian advances
01:07:03there have been reports that fighting for example has resumed north of kupyansk that the russians are
01:07:11now again taking territory north of kupyansk in the bridgehead that they've established northwest on the
01:07:20northwest banks of the oskal river and there are also reports that the russians have resumed their advance in
01:07:30zaporozhia region towards orekov though i've heard nothing about the bridgeheads the russians are supposed to
01:07:39have established on the west bank of the nipa river maybe those reports overstated the reality maybe those
01:07:51bridgeheads don't exist but elsewhere in zaporozhia region itself we are getting information about
01:08:00further russian advances but the most striking piece of news is what happened during the period of the victory
01:08:12a truce in torresk it seems that the ukrainians sought to take advantage of this unilateral truce
01:08:23that putin had declared to again restart the battle of torresk remember a few weeks ago
01:08:33shortly after the russians announced that torresk had fallen entirely under the russian russian control
01:08:42the ukrainians invited a group of journalists from the daily telegraph
01:08:50they didn't go to torresk itself but they visited places not far away and they were told about an
01:08:58ongoing battle still underway in torresk this as i said after the russians had announced that they'd
01:09:06actually captured the town and it was indeed the case that the ukrainians carried out various counter-attacks
01:09:17on russian positions in torresk and some of these counter-attacks did occasionally succeed in capturing
01:09:25the old building in one or two places but the gains were ephemeral
01:09:30ephemeral the russians having captured torresk were far too strongly entrenched in the town they
01:09:39were quickly able to recapture all of these gains these brief gains that the ukrainians had made and
01:09:47and soon they were able to reassert full control of torresk all over again well during the victory day
01:09:56a ceasefire the ukrainians sent another large group of troops to try to restart the battle of torresk
01:10:09all over again and this can only have been another media operation it cannot seriously have been the
01:10:18case that the ukrainians generally believed that they would be able to recapture torresk from the russians
01:10:26but it does look as if they wanted to publish film during the victory day celebrations of their troops
01:10:35back in torresk um raising the ukrainian flag and one can almost see the headlines torresk stands and all of
01:10:47that well the russians apparently allowed the ukrainians to advance deep into torresk they then encircled them
01:10:58a battle followed and even ukrainian reports are saying that the entire ukrainian group that was sent
01:11:05into torresk and i'm not going to try to guesstimate its number but that the entire group was basically
01:11:13wiped out i haven't read it but i understand that even deep state the media operation which as far as i can
01:11:23sell tell is now heavily coordinating with kuri kirill obudanoff's military intelligence ukrainian military
01:11:32intelligence is reporting a variant of the story this approach to conducting this war
01:11:43achieves nothing it exacerbates ukrainian casualties yesterday i was reading about how the ukrainians
01:11:53are looking to renew their attempt to break into kursk region and to capture this village of totlin
01:11:58kursk region which they have been breaking their teeth on for at least the last week probably longer
01:12:06again this makes absolutely no sense and in the meantime of course the russians continue advancing now
01:12:19now even as all of this is going on all sorts of other things have been taking place around the world
01:12:28now the americans and the chinese have had their meeting in switzerland and the purpose of the meeting
01:12:37which despite news media claims in the united states this meeting which was undoubtedly requested
01:12:47by the united states has led to a quick reduction and a drastic reduction in tariffs by each side
01:12:58now i understand that the americans are reducing tariffs by 110 percent so the tariffs were 145 percent
01:13:12and 100 sorry 115 percent that they're reducing tabs by 115 percent so that the tariffs on chinese goods
01:13:22entering the united states have now been reduced to 30 percent which is still very high but is not
01:13:31absurd absurd absurd absurdly high and is by the way less than the 54 percent
01:13:44liberation day tariffs that president trump imposed on china in march the chinese have reciprocated
01:13:55divided by reducing their tariffs to 10 percent from 125 percent so they've also reduced their tariffs by 115
01:14:08matching the american reduction now
01:14:12as far as i'm concerned this is a retreat by the united states we're told that this is only going to be for
01:14:2190 days there's going to be more detailed negotiations those negotiations will probably continue
01:14:29for months and probably years because complex trade negotiations of this kind always do i can't imagine
01:14:40that the united states seriously intends to impose these kind of tariffs
01:14:48on china those kind of 145 percent tariffs on china all over again if the united states were to try
01:15:01based on what has happened the chinese will simply counter by raising their tariffs again and the americans will be
01:15:09back at square one so i would regard this as basically
01:15:19a sort of win by china though i would also say that as far as i'm concerned this is his return to reason
01:15:28and good sense um the tariffs imposed were impossible they were preventing any trade from taking place
01:15:42at all the whole idea of protection protecting american industries had become subverted by a plan
01:15:54to launch an economic war against china that seemed to me to be an incredibly bad idea to put it mildly
01:16:03and i can't really imagine that the united states really wants to do that i suspect that even 30 percent
01:16:11tariffs is too high it's going to have an inflationary effect i would not be surprised if eventually
01:16:18these tariffs are reduced and we could find the tariffs on chinese goods start to be pitched at the same 10
01:16:26percent level as tariffs on goods exported to the united states by pretty much all other countries
01:16:35now that however does bring us back to the topic of the ukraine conflict because we don't yet know what
01:16:43sanctions the united states and the european union are planning but if they are going to try
01:16:56to impose or threaten to impose secondary sanctions on countries that import energy russian energy
01:17:08given that china is the biggest importer of russian energy and looks like it's planning to step up its imports
01:17:17of russian energy are the americans seriously going to tear up
01:17:25what they've just achieved in these negotiations in switzerland by imposing secondary tariffs
01:17:33on china which will result in trade between the united states and china coming to a complete stop again
01:17:44well unless i am missing something i cannot believe this putin and c have been meeting over the last couple of
01:17:54days the chinese media has covered xi jinping's visit to russia in glowing terms it doesn't seem to me
01:18:04as if the chinese are at all interested in scaling down their economic relationship with russia
01:18:12the russians have just announced today that they welcome the establishment of chinese car factories
01:18:19on their territory i suspect the economic relationship to develop putin spoke about power siberia ii being
01:18:29launched in 2027 i presume he means construction will begin then so secondary tariffs further sanctions
01:18:42secondary sanctions all of that kind of thing on the russians exactly as mark bennett said it's going to be
01:18:51another exercise in punching air what it will probably do is create more complications and disruptions
01:19:00in the world trading system leading to a higher inflation in the west hitting western consumers
01:19:09but it seems that now that they're so far up the sanctions escalator where russia is concerned
01:19:19the europeans and the americans have no real way of getting off oh that's what i think about that i'm going to
01:19:29finish by saying two things firstly as i said i don't there's not going to be a ceasefire there's not going to be
01:19:36negotiations on thursday i think the net effect of what has happened is that it's exposed over the last
01:19:45couple of days is that he exposed trump's own doubts about the course his administration is taking though
01:19:53it doesn't look as if he's prepared to act on those doubts and it has probably bolstered the russian
01:20:02position with their various bricks and global south friends but quite plausibly this attempt
01:20:16by the trump administration to get some kind of negotiating process underway some kind of peace process
01:20:25over the conflict underway
01:20:31which has not has was probably the last serious
01:20:39possibility of achieving a negotiated peace and its failure and i think we are almost now at the point
01:20:51where we can talk about its failure almost certainly means that we will get a military outcome which is a
01:21:02decisive russian victory the europeans who have acted so hard to obstruct american moves towards
01:21:16a negotiated solution of the conflict will probably at some court point will almost certainly at some point
01:21:26come to bitterly rue and regret what they have done that their ability to close their eyes to their own role
01:21:39is practically infinite and knowing them they will probably blame everybody but themselves so that's the first
01:21:47thing i wanted to say wrapping up the second is i do want to say a little bit about the ceasefire
01:21:55in between india and pakistan now it's very difficult to understand what exactly has happened
01:22:03but the indian media which is now very active and has established a global reach
01:22:09suggests this opinion in india is not at all happy with the ceasefire the official line so far as i can
01:22:18make is out is that india launched a proportionate response to the
01:22:24the terrorist incident in kashmir which india is adamant pakistan was responsible for
01:22:36the pakistanis instead of
01:22:42acting proportionately then launched a massive attack on indian positions
01:22:49and that led to a massive indian counter-attack which caused significant damage to pakistani positions
01:22:59and then supposedly this caused panic in pakistan the pakistanis then begged the trump administration
01:23:10to intervene the trump administration vance and rubio contacted the indians there was a call
01:23:20eventually with prime minister modi himself but also more importantly with jaishankar the indian foreign
01:23:27minister and the indians said that they would be prepared to de-escalate and to agree to a ceasefire
01:23:40provided the request came directly from pakistan itself and the pakistanis delayed allegedly for two hours
01:23:50but then they did eventually ask for the ceasefire and at that point india agreed that all may be true
01:24:01what i would say is that i get the sense of considerable anger in india
01:24:06over the way this whole affair has gone there doesn't seem to be much um gratitude for any role
01:24:16that the united states might have played there seems to be on the contrary of feeling that the united
01:24:22states rushed to pakistan's rescue when pakistan was on the ropes now that may be completely untrue by the
01:24:31way i have no way of judging but anyway that seems to be the popular sentiment in india if anything i
01:24:38would say that relations between india and the united states have been damaged by this episode
01:24:48and i noticed with interest that the indian foreign secretary who is a
01:24:56in a subordinate position to the foreign minister anyway the indian foreign secretary
01:25:02when he announced the ceasefire did so without mentioning the role of the united states in it
01:25:09at all suggesting strongly american displeasure i understand that there's also been some comment
01:25:16in india about the fact that prime minister modi himself has so far made no public comment
01:25:23about what happened anyway that is the indian view the pakistanis obviously take a completely different
01:25:31view they don't accept that the situation that they were on the ropes or anything like that
01:25:37and there is an american view as well and it was explained set out in cnn which is that the americans
01:25:45initially had decided that they would not intervene in the conflict and then suddenly
01:25:51they received alarming intelligence cnn is careful not to tell us what that alarming intelligence was
01:26:02but anyway they received alarming intelligence and that made them work the phones to try to get the
01:26:11indians and the pakistanis to agree a ceasefire which was ultimately successful now
01:26:19in some respects if you take a step back and think about it the indian account and the american account
01:26:30are not really in conflict with each other was the pakistani was the intelligence that caused the united states
01:26:43to intervene and to try to broker a ceasefire um urgent request by pakistan for american intervention
01:26:54because pakistan was buckling under the pressure maybe maybe the pakistanis if that was the case
01:27:08made threats which the americans felt they couldn't ignore and of course given that we're talking about
01:27:16nuclear powers we can all guess what those threats might have been but all of this remains deeply speculative
01:27:24and i don't want to explore this based on the very limited information that i have suffice to say
01:27:36that the mood in india seems angry and unsatisfied with what has happened and that some of that anger
01:27:48as far as i can judge appears to be directed at the united states anyway this is where i finish today's
01:27:57program let me remind you again you can find all our programs on our various platforms locals rumble and
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01:28:16channel that's me for today more from me soon have a very good day
01:28:41thank you
01:28:46so
01:28:48you
01:28:50you