Alexander Mercouris breaks down a major geopolitical turn: Vladimir Putin dismisses Western ultimatums, sidesteps threats of sanctions, and rejects any meeting with Zelensky in Istanbul. As the UK and EU scramble for leverage, Moscow stands firm—showcasing a bold stance in the high-stakes diplomacy surrounding the Ukraine conflict. 🕊️🔍💥
#Putin #Russia #Zelensky #AlexanderMercouris #UkraineWar #Geopolitics #IstanbulTalks #Sanctions #UKPolitics #EUPolitics #Diplomacy #Moscow #PeaceTalks #UkraineCrisis #RussiaUkraine #WesternUltimatum #NoSanctions #RussianStrategy #GlobalPolitics #MiddleEastDiplomacy
#Putin #Russia #Zelensky #AlexanderMercouris #UkraineWar #Geopolitics #IstanbulTalks #Sanctions #UKPolitics #EUPolitics #Diplomacy #Moscow #PeaceTalks #UkraineCrisis #RussiaUkraine #WesternUltimatum #NoSanctions #RussianStrategy #GlobalPolitics #MiddleEastDiplomacy
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00good day today is tuesday 13th may 2025 and lots of things continue to happen in the world
00:00:09donald trump for example is currently in saudi arabia where he's being received with by king
00:00:16salman and by the crown prince and de facto ruler of saudi arabia mbs who i think donald trump
00:00:26counts as a personal friend and other things are taking place also in many other places
00:00:34in the world too but in this program i will again focus on the situation of the conflict
00:00:40in ukraine because though the situation in the conflicts in the middle east remains much more
00:00:49tragic with far more people dying it remains the case in my opinion that the conflict in ukraine
00:00:59remains the most important geopolitical conflict is the most important in terms of the direction
00:01:08of international relations and the shift in the international balance of power anyway i am going to
00:01:16quickly say that over the last 24 hours we have moved in one respect in the ukrainian conflict
00:01:27from low comedy to absolutely hopeless a ridiculous farce so where are we well yesterday when i made my
00:01:39program it appeared that the europeans were going to ignore the um warning the comments of donald trump
00:01:47about ukraine uh going to istanbul and working with the russians to um agreeing to the russian proposal
00:01:58to president putin's proposal for direct negotiations zelensky had suggested that he might go himself
00:02:07but it seemed to me yesterday that he was making that conditional on the russians first agreeing to a
00:02:16ceasefire which they have of course already refused to do and as i discussed yesterday in my program
00:02:26the british foreign minister david lammy telephoned marco rubio u.s secretary of state marco rubio
00:02:33and it appeared that the u.s was still committed to the agreed position that the western powers had reached
00:02:44over the course of the four european leaders macron um starmer mertz and tusk's visit on saturday to kiev
00:02:56the agreed the agreed the agreement that they had reached that if the russians didn't agree didn't
00:03:02agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire on monday then the western powers would collectively move
00:03:12forward with the sanctions the massive sanctions that president macron of france and others have been
00:03:20talking about anyway that is how the situation looked to me to be yesterday and we were getting
00:03:28comments from european officials from matt's spokesman that the clock was ticking there were only 12 hours
00:03:37left before um the deadline set out in the ultimatum on monday expired that unless the russians
00:03:50during use that time those 12 hours to declare the ceasefire the sanctions would follow and anyway
00:03:59that seemed to be the position and then of course we got more comments from president trump and going even
00:04:08further against the stated positions of his foreign policy um people kellogg and rubio he went on to say
00:04:20that it was terribly important that this meeting in istanbul between the ukrainians and the russians take place
00:04:29he understood that the leaders that's to say putin and zelensky would be attending um
00:04:38he was actually i think as of that time as of the time that he said that wrong in thinking this
00:04:46putin has never said that he is going to istanbul on thursday and as we will see shortly that doesn't
00:04:54seem to be his intention at all as for zelensky as of the time when trump spoke it still seems to me that
00:05:04zelensky's actual position was that he would not go to istanbul unless the russians agreed to a ceasefire
00:05:15but anyway trump appears to have convinced himself or misunderstood or assumed that a summit meeting
00:05:24between putin and zelensky would probably happen in istanbul on thursday he said this would be a
00:05:32wonderful and very good thing that it would move things forward and that there might be peace and he
00:05:37said that he was seriously thinking about going to istanbul himself so that he could attend this
00:05:44summit meeting though it would be very difficult for him to do that because he had so many meetings ahead
00:05:51of him in the gulf in saudi arabia in the emirates where he's also uh due to go and who gifted him a
00:06:04luxuriously um outfitted boeing 747 which could replace air force one anyway just say anyway um nonetheless
00:06:16despite all of that despite all of these other pressing engagements donald trump spoke about the
00:06:21fact that he might want to come to um istanbul himself to participate in the negotiations so
00:06:31after trump said that it became absolutely clear to the europeans however angry they already were with
00:06:41trump's previous comments welcoming the russian proposal for negotiations in istanbul however angry they
00:06:52previously were it became absolutely clear that trump was sticking to his position that he welcomed the
00:07:01meeting in istanbul he wasn't really thinking at that time about imposing sanctions at all and that
00:07:11his priority was to see this meeting in istanbul take place and well if you were following the
00:07:19news as closely as i was following yesterday it became very obvious that the entire european position
00:07:28yesterday began to disintegrate a meeting did take place an eu meeting did take place i am not exactly sure
00:07:37at what level um it turned out that many european eu states had not been briefed in advance about any further plan
00:07:50to impose sanctions on russia over and above the 17th sanctions package which is already being
00:08:02being being being under discussion that package by the way seems to mostly target russia's so-called shadow
00:08:09fleet just saying anyway many eu countries asked what was all this about what was this
00:08:16ultimatum that was delivered to the russians on saturday why were they told about it in advance what
00:08:24sanctions was it that macron exactly had in mind and well it turned out that matt's macron um and the rest
00:08:36had actually no further sanctions proposals to present to this meeting so this whole meeting basically
00:08:44collapsed in confusion and of course it turned out that the americans at that point after trump's various
00:08:52comments were not moving forward with sanctions with further sanctions anyway moreover
00:09:00trump has now made it crystal clear that he does expect the ukrainians to go to istanbul
00:09:07on thursday in fact he absolutely categorically insists on it he doesn't care whether or not there is a
00:09:16ceasefire before the meeting he's going to react very badly or so the europeans and the ukrainians fear
00:09:24if the ukrainians do not go to istanbul to repeat again up to donald trump making those comments the
00:09:36position zelensky's position as far as i can understand it is that he was not going to go to istanbul unless
00:09:46the russians agreed to a ceasefire so even though he was talking about going to istanbul it was more a
00:09:56rhetorical position than an actual one it was intended to somehow divert attention away from putin's offer of
00:10:09direct negotiations between russia and ukraine in istanbul on thursday anyway the europeans the ukrainians
00:10:21now find themselves facing absolute categorical demands from donald trump that they do indeed go to istanbul
00:10:32on thursday and according to bloomberg the europeans have been anxiously contacting the americans to
00:10:41find out whether after the talks in istanbul on thursday assuming they take place if there is still no
00:10:53ceasefire after the talks whether at that point the americans would be willing
00:10:59to go ahead with further massive sanctions against russia and apparently the europeans are not getting
00:11:10any response from the americans the americans are not saying one way or the other that is probably
00:11:19because the people in the state department marco rubio and his officials who are the people that the
00:11:24europeans are probably in touch with genuinely do not know they don't know what is in donald trump's mind
00:11:34kellogg and rubio had spoken as if the united states would be announcing sanctions in unison with the europeans on
00:11:45monday unless the russians agreed to a 30-day ceasefire since trump has essentially put a line
00:11:54through all of that they don't know what he intends to do if the talks do take place
00:12:02on thursday but there is still no ceasefire so they're not able to say and so there is complete
00:12:09confusion and i i understand it the complete the confusion goes on so
00:12:16i was reading in i think it was the london times that or it might have been the daily telegraph
00:12:25that the europeans are now reconciled to the fact that there has to be some kind of meeting
00:12:33in istanbul or at least some kind of ukrainian presence in istanbul on thursday in light of trump's
00:12:42comments and that they're trying to send their own people to istanbul people from germany france britain
00:12:54to try to help the ukrainians negotiate with the russians because they're worried about the ukrainians
00:13:03negotiating by themselves and apparently they all expect zelensky himself to go to istanbul on thursday
00:13:15even if there is no ceasefire and it's quite clear that they're all telling zelensky that having now
00:13:23broached the idea of his going to istanbul on thursday he must indeed go
00:13:32in light of what donald trump has been saying well zelensky now finds that he is expected to go to istanbul
00:13:45but as i said previously it seems to me that his original proposal of going to istanbul was not intended
00:13:54seriously now he is expected to go and so we've had further comments and statements coming from kiev
00:14:05not so much in zelensky himself but from his various um officials from podolyak and yarmark that yes indeed
00:14:16zelensky will go to istanbul on thursday but if putin doesn't come even if there is an extremely strong
00:14:28russian delegation in istanbul even if the russians come and are ready to sit down and to negotiate with
00:14:36him and there's no reason by the way why the russians wouldn't negotiate with zelensky anyway even if
00:14:43they do come but come without putin then zelensky will not speak to them he will walk out
00:14:52and the russians will be left in istanbul and zelensky himself will fly to ukraine and i've been reading
00:15:03again in the british media that his aides podolyak yarmark and the others are now putting out putting it
00:15:10out that there is no point in the great and wise president zelensky meeting with vladimir putin's
00:15:20underlings in istanbul even if they be people like the russian prime minister michael michustin
00:15:28because it will be a complete waste of time the only person supposedly who's able to make a decision
00:15:36would be putin himself and given that that is so there's no point in wasting time talking to the
00:15:46hired help this is how they talk about the government of russia just saying well of course
00:15:54that is absolute and complete nonsense negotiating teams regularly meet they remain accountable and
00:16:02responsible to their senior to their seniors in the respective capitals they negotiate they discuss
00:16:09things with each other they make progress they iron out many of the issues they report back to their
00:16:16home governments and then after they reported back to their home governments they receive instructions
00:16:23and then the negotiations continue and make progress that way that is the conventional way of
00:16:31conducting negotiations eventually as the negotiations move forward as the negotiations progress as the
00:16:41position of the parties converges and as they come closer to each other and as a consensus between them
00:16:48starts to emerge well all sorts of things become possible a entirely normal approach normal course
00:17:00would be for the negotiations to agree the negotiators to agree on most of the topics in contention 95 or
00:17:12something like that the most difficult matters remain unresolved it's agreed that the leaders should then
00:17:19meet in an actual summit meeting and then the two leaders can talk about these remaining unresolved issues
00:17:27with each other and see whether they can come to an agreement between between them about them that is the normal way of conducting negotiations at an international level a situation where the leaders meet before anything has been agreed at all when the parties actually disagree about absolutely everything about ceasefires about ukraine's
00:17:54ukraine's nato membership about the size of the ukrainian armed forces about the territories about any one of those things a meeting in which the leaders meet and talk about these things with each other without as i said any movement or discussion in the negotiations at all is a complete waste of time
00:18:20ian ian proud on his blog the peacemonger has written a good piece about this and remember he's a diplomat i would also say reinforcing a point that ian proud has made
00:18:31that another reason for being very wary of having a meeting of this kind a leader's meeting of putin and zelensky in istanbul is that it is an absolute certainty as night follows day that zelensky would use the meeting to grandstand and to try to put put putin in an awkward position and why would the russians want to agree with this
00:18:59russians want to agree with that so anyway that's where we are at the moment nothing has been resolved the sanctions that we were promised yesterday have not appeared there is no agreement in the eu in the european union about them the americans
00:19:23russians haven't decided whether they're actually going to go forward with sanctions at all zelensky one moment he gives the impression that he's going to istanbul the next moment he isn't then he says he will but he won't speak to anybody but putin
00:19:41even if mishustin the prime minister or someone like that turns up it is absolute complete chaos and i'm going to explain why i don't think it's at all difficult to understand
00:19:58the ukrainians fundamentally do not want peace they don't want a peace settlement with the russians
00:20:05because they are losing the war and they know that if there was a negotiation with the russians
00:20:10especially if the fighting continued their hand would weaken every day and if there was a final
00:20:18settlement it would have to be a settlement in which they conceded to the russians far more than they are
00:20:26prepared to do probably they're not especially keen on a ceasefire at all after all to repeat again right
00:20:37up to february zelensky's position was that he wouldn't accept a ceasefire unless he got security
00:20:45guarantees from the united states when ceasefires have been agreed like the 30-day energy truce he has simply
00:20:54ignored them he has pretended to agree to them but his military have continued to conduct operations
00:21:02striking the russian energy system during them so he's probably not keen on a real ceasefire either
00:21:11he worries that if there is a ceasefire there would be demands for elections um there would be
00:21:19political uncertainties in ukraine itself and he probably doesn't want to face that so he's not keen on talks
00:21:30he's not keen on ceasefire but he does want it to appear that if there are no talks and no ceasefire
00:21:41that the blame lies with the russians not him so he puts on these stunts saying he's going to go to
00:21:50to istanbul to meet with putin except of course that he doesn't really intend to go to in istanbul
00:21:59and doesn't honestly expect to meet with putin because as i said his entire objective
00:22:06is to throw the blame for the collapse of the entire peace process on the russians and on putin and
00:22:15that's all there is on his side and on the side of the europeans it isn't that different either
00:22:24it is a matter of complete bafflement to me that the europeans want the war to continue
00:22:31despite the fact that ukraine is clearly losing but that it seems is the case probably they don't fully
00:22:45understand the extent to which ukraine actually is losing most of the information about the state of the
00:22:55conflict they seem to get from the ukrainians and the ukrainians always put a massively optimistic spin
00:23:03on whatever is going on so probably the europeans believe that ukraine's military situation is much
00:23:10stronger and more sound than it really is i remember the shock and panic that spread right across europe
00:23:20back in february last year when avdeevka the fortified town near donetsk fell i suspect that the europeans
00:23:30generally did not believe at that time that avdeevka would fall they assumed that it was so strongly
00:23:37fortified and so strongly defended that the russians would not be able to capture it
00:23:45so i think the europeans probably don't understand how bad ukraine's military situation is but ultimately
00:23:55they're not interested in stopping the fighting they're not interested even in a ceasefire though that
00:24:03is what they constantly and incessantly talk about now bear in mind that until donald trump became president
00:24:14on the 30th of january and until the ukrainians agreed to the american demand for a 30-day ceasefire
00:24:26in march no european leader that i can remember had ever suggested a ceasefire or a freezing of the
00:24:37conflict in fact whenever it was suggested the other european leaders not by any leader by the way but in
00:24:46the media by officials by occasional commentators the media the political class across europe would
00:24:58round on any person who did suggest such a terrible thing because of course agreeing to a ceasefire
00:25:04that the russians accepting that the russians would remain in occupation of territory informally eastern ukraine
00:25:13well that was absolute anathema so they don't really want to ceasefire they certainly don't want talks
00:25:21between the russians and the ukrainians which might end with a peace settlement which would look
00:25:28like a russian victory they too want to wreck the entire negotiating process initiated by the americans
00:25:41whilst making it appear to the americans that it is the russians who are to blame the ukrainians
00:25:51and the europeans might have slightly divergent perspectives but ultimately their objective is the same to scotch
00:26:01any move towards negotiations to prevent any steps towards a final genuine resolution of the conflict
00:26:10even the ceasefire is an awkward thing for them but they don't want to go openly against donald trump
00:26:24they fear that if they do donald trump will cut off military supplies and intelligence assistance to ukraine
00:26:33they also fear that donald trump will do something that the europeans for feel is even more alarming and
00:26:43ultimately dangerous towards them which is seek a full political diplomatic and economic rapprochement with russia
00:26:56that has to be avoided at all costs so they don't want to just wreck the talks they want to wreck the talks
00:27:10in a way that the blame falls not on them but on the russians and that's what this is all about so you have the
00:27:19stunt of the four leaders going to kiev there's no reason why those leaders needed to go to kiev at all
00:27:26just saying i mean obviously there were the victory day celebrations in moscow the following day
00:27:33zelensky was keen to some extent to draw attention away from those victory day celebrations by the way that
00:27:44was a dismal fail if that was the intention i don't think anybody looking at those four leaders in kiev
00:27:53huddled together looking at times depressed and tired um sometimes putting on fake smiles and all of that
00:28:02would seriously compare this dismal display with the pomp and circumstance and all of that that was
00:28:11happening in moscow but anyway partly it was an intent the intention was to draw attention away from
00:28:20what's up was happening in moscow but mostly it was to wreck the peace talks to wreck the peace initiative
00:28:30that trump has initiated and to try to lock the united states back into the conflict to give unstinting
00:28:43military political and economic support to ukraine not because i think that the europeans seriously any
00:28:55longer believe that ukraine is going to win they may think that it's in much better shape than it really
00:29:03is but i think even they collectively understand that ukraine isn't going to win the war but to prevent
00:29:12the absolute nightmare of a rapprochement between the united states and russia which would leave those
00:29:21leaders high and dry and which would provoke a split within the european union so that was the entire purpose
00:29:31of the exercise there is no sincerity or honesty behind it there is no real attempt to agree a ceasefire
00:29:42as i said nobody was talking about a ceasefire in europe or in ukraine before march there is no real desire
00:29:53there is absolutely no desire for serious negotiations with the russians if there was a desire for serious
00:30:02negotiations in with the russians the europeans would be taking zelensky to one side and say to them are you
00:30:11out of your senses do you really think that the way forward is for you to go to
00:30:17istanbul and to refuse to talk to anybody there apart from putin you must put together a proper
00:30:26negotiated team negotiating team properly accredited with all of the correct mandates that means rescinding
00:30:37your october 2022 decree which prohibits negotiations with the russians and you must then sit down with
00:30:47the russians and engage in serious negotiations and come to an agreement with them on the way forward to
00:30:55end the war if the europeans were serious about ending the war that is what they would do if the ukrainians
00:31:06were serious about ending the war that too is what they would do but of course instead
00:31:15that plan is to wreck the entire peace process blame the russians for it win over donald trump
00:31:24it is duplicitous and manipulative and insincere and as complicated plots of that kind often do they come it's come
00:31:40unstuck because it's ultimately difficult to continue to conduct a plot like that in full public view
00:31:53against against against individuals as unpredictable and as difficult to control
00:32:02as donald trump or as thorough and methodical and as organized as the russians anyway where does all this
00:32:12leave us leave us um i'm going to make a guess i think in spite of everything now zelensky probably is going
00:32:19to go to istanbul on thursday um earlier today whilst we were doing a live stream um alex and i which you
00:32:29will find on the durand by the way brilliant live stream um one of the participants in the live stream said that
00:32:36they'd been breaking news that putin was not intending to go to istanbul on thursday and that the russian
00:32:46delegation to the talks on thursday would be led by lavrov and ushakov now i think that is very very likely
00:32:56but i have to say that some hours onward from that live stream i've been checking the russian media and i have
00:33:05seen no announcement yet which confirms the makeup of the russian delegation so for the moment it seems
00:33:14to me it's still somewhat up in the air though i personally will be very surprised if putin does go
00:33:23i am confident that we will see a strong russian delegation go to istanbul i think it is highly likely
00:33:31it will be led by lavrov and ushakov i think that is the absolutely correct way to conduct negotiations
00:33:40at this time as i've discussed it is the conventional way to conduct negotiations at this time and then of
00:33:49course if zelensky is true to his word he will flounce off to kiev and refuse to meet with them and then
00:33:58the big unanswered question again comes back to this what in that event will donald trump do will he be
00:34:06angry because putin didn't go to istanbul will he feel angry that his own opportunity to meet with putin
00:34:14in istanbul which is clearly something he hankers for will not have been realized his great moment as
00:34:21acting as the peacemaker you can almost see the photos at least the photos in trump's mind himself
00:34:29in the middle putin on one side zelensky on the other he brings them both together he gets them to
00:34:36shake hands something of that kind anyway he's will he be angry that that great photo op isn't going to
00:34:43happen or will he see through all of these maneuvers and intrigues that i've been setting up in this
00:34:51program will he realize that zelensky is not in the slightest bit serious about negotiations with the
00:34:59russians that his announcement that he's going to istanbul to meet with the russians actually proves that
00:35:07he is not serious about negotiations with the russians and will trump say to himself and will
00:35:14trump on behalf of the united states also say that enough is enough zelensky isn't interested in
00:35:21negotiations ukraine is not interested in negotiations he's alluded to that possibility on his last
00:35:33truth social post and at the time therefore has now finally come for the united states and for donald trump
00:35:42himself to walk away and to leave ukraine and the europeans to their own devices well i am not holding
00:35:52my breath i think i still have to say this i still think that over the next couple of days um
00:36:00um everybody who can in washington within the permanent bureaucracy within the state department general
00:36:11kellogg will be working as hard as they can on donald trump to persuade him that it's the russians who are
00:36:20not really being serious they're not accepting his wonderful ceasefire plan that the way to
00:36:28push them break them into obedience is through sanctions that there will be severe political risks
00:36:37for donald trump if he acted in any other way that if he did that he would find himself
00:36:45in conflict with people like lindsey graham in the senate and the various army of senators that lindsey graham
00:36:53pretends or claims to have aligned behind him and that
00:37:00given that it's the russians who are not really being serious donald trump should back ukraine
00:37:11order the sanctions
00:37:14and recommit to ukraine in the same way that joe biden did
00:37:21well i have to say i think that is the most likely outcome but as of this moment in time we simply
00:37:30don't know everything is up in the air it could be it is highly likely that between now and thursday
00:37:39all sorts of other diplomatic maneuvers and steps and things like that will happen and we'll be
00:37:46uh seeing um perhaps more proposals from the russians more proposals and the americans more shifting of
00:37:54the ground by the europeans and it could be that the situation will change all over again meanwhile i
00:38:03should say that the europeans continue to make their threats the same german government spokesman who on
00:38:10monday was telling us that the russians had only 12 hours left in which to agree to an unconditional
00:38:17ceasefire or massive sanctions would follow is saying today that unless the russians negotiate seriously
00:38:25with the ukrainians on thursday in other words unless putin comes and meets with zelensky on thursday
00:38:33massive sanctions will follow just saying and um the german foreign minister the new german foreign
00:38:42minister who's replaced anilina baerbock i'm afraid i can't remember his name he is now also joining kirstama
00:38:50and saying that ukraine is on an irreversible path towards nato going directly against donald trump
00:39:02and it's the kind of rhetoric which again undermines the prospect of negotiations in istanbul
00:39:09and i wonder whether it might in fact be intended to be so whether the german leaders whether the german
00:39:20government were the maths uh actually do want to undermine the negotiations and to put off the russians
00:39:31and what that might explain these statements that the germans like the british are now
00:39:39making well i would say that others can see events as they're playing out um there was a meeting
00:39:52i believe it was yesterday between the leader of the rassemblement national marine le pen and the deputy
00:40:01prime minister of italy matteo salvini the two came together and they both were very very critical of the
00:40:11whole negotiating strategy if you can dignify it with that way word that the european union has been
00:40:18following in fact they spoke about a warmongering strategy they made it absolutely clear that they
00:40:24completely disagree with what um the um eu leadership had been doing and that they strongly disagree with
00:40:35the policies of president macron of france in particular marine le pen incidentally said that if
00:40:44she is ever elected president of france or if she's prevented from standing and another candidate backed by
00:40:54the rassemblement national becomes president of france the franco-german axis that has dominated eu
00:41:04politics well since the 1970s will be severed that it has become lopsided in favor of germany and is become
00:41:17a pure mechanism to drive the process of european integration of eu centralization and integration
00:41:28against against the wishes of the people of europe and of most of the governments of the eu states
00:41:36and that france will realign and seek to make common ground with italy which is france's most natural ally
00:41:48among the big countries of europe and solvini at least seemed to share that view
00:41:56selvini of course is a rival with the italian to the italian prime minister georgia maloney
00:42:04they're not on especially friendly terms and le pen also has not been on especially friendly terms
00:42:14with maloney either until recently but maloney's but sorry but le pen seemed to think
00:42:21that um maloney's positions was shifting and um she might by the way be right notice that maloney did not
00:42:35join starmer macron maz and tusk on that trip to kiev she's not come out and given enthusiastic
00:42:48backing to this ultimatum that was announced on thursday um she does seem to be quietly distancing
00:42:59herself from the for the whole enterprise she's made clear that she opposes the deployment of european
00:43:06peacekeepers as they still get called from time to time to ukraine so it may be the case that maloney is
00:43:15gradually shifting ground anyway we shall see but anyway we could see that important people in france
00:43:25and italy are coming out in opposition to the strategy and are making um overtures to each other
00:43:34and i for one would not be surprised if at some point in the next few years we did indeed start to see
00:43:44a kind of french french italian entente start to appear in within the eu to counter the influence both of
00:43:58brussels and berlin anyway that's for the future but clearly as i said salvini and um and um
00:44:10le pen are not impressed someone else who is not impressed either was vladimir putin now he's not spoken
00:44:22very much about the ukrainian conflict since he made his statement on saturday the one which as i said of
00:44:34the single statement which has thrown the whole of europe the entire eu system into complete confusion
00:44:44but he did have a very interesting meeting today with uh certain prominent business leaders this is a
00:44:53meeting devoted to further work on the russian economy there's an awful lot said about this meeting
00:45:01about the state of the russian economy all together and about putin's plans for it and that sort of thing
00:45:10but he did turn briefly to the various talk about the sanctions and he said some very interesting things
00:45:22about them somebody said to him that um the russians should not be worried about the sanctions and he said
00:45:34this this is just putin first of all he quoted what the other person said he said we cannot be intimidated
00:45:43by these new possible sanctions the sanctions that the europeans and the americans perhaps were talking
00:45:51about on saturday and putin went on to say we must not be afraid whoever starts to be afraid will
00:46:00immediately lose everything but it is absolutely necessary to understand what can happen and we must be prepared
00:46:08for any actions of our possible future ill wishes they do many things to their own detriment it seems that
00:46:18they will definitely not do this or that because it harms them and yet they will nonetheless do it
00:46:27the idiots excuse me please now that is the first time as far as i'm aware that vladimir putin
00:46:39has called the leaders of the west or at least the leaders of europe idiots that's his word it's not mine
00:46:48it's there in the kremlin readout of his words so he says you mustn't be scared about their sanctions we must give no
00:47:00sense to them that we are scared about these sanctions obviously we must prepare for them we must do everything we can to be ready to deal with these sanctions
00:47:12if they come if they do come they the europeans will suffer more from them than we will but that
00:47:24isn't going to deter them from pressing on with these sanctions because these people are idiots they are fools
00:47:33so what else can you expect from them and he went on to say by the way the world's leading economies are
00:47:40falling into recession just to harm us i'll buy tickets i won't go they say in order to spite the bus
00:47:51conductor what is this so of course we should keep this in mind that they can do what they talk about
00:47:59publicly and we of course must at least minimize the negative consequences for us this is also the question
00:48:08of what is a self-sufficient economy everything is interconnected in the modern world this is the an obvious
00:48:19thing but still there are key points constitute one of the parameters of our economic independence
00:48:28and sovereignty we must be ready for everything so that's put in very practical answer and again you see
00:48:37the mask slip a little and you see the utter contempt in which he holds the leaders of europe and how he
00:48:45thinks that they are fools and how he's basically losing patience with these people who he sees as fools
00:48:54so i will just finish this discussion of the um diplomacy if you can call it diplomacy as i said it's
00:49:02too farcical really to call diplomacy by uh making one very last observation um yesterday the media commentary
00:49:12was saying that the europeans were furious with donald trump because they thought they had putin cornered
00:49:21and now to their fury after putin's statement of saturday and after trump's interventions over the following days it seems
00:49:36that putin is not cornered in the way that they hoped they are actually lying about this again
00:49:46it is not vladimir putin that they're really trying to corner the person they're trying to corner
00:49:54and he needs to understand this is donald trump they want to maneuver trump into a position where he
00:50:05announces further sanctions against russia and more economic and military support for ukraine
00:50:13they know that that is not what he really wants to do but they are trying to maneuver him into a position
00:50:27where he has no political alternative other than to do it that ultimately is what all of these maneuvers
00:50:38over the last couple of days are about now i'm going to make here a guess i am going to guess that the person
00:50:52whose mind is behind this strategy is the prime minister of great britain george starmer himself
00:51:01i say that again i think by now it's fairly obvious to anybody who follows these programs that i have no time
00:51:11at all for keir starmer and i have to allow for that bias but starmer is first and foremost a lawyer
00:51:20he worked in the courts for a very very long time he's a barrister
00:51:24and i have to say that this sort of maneuver of trying to maneuver your adversary into a position
00:51:35where he takes steps which you can then say are unreasonable these attempts in other words to score
00:51:42points off putin and these attempts also to box in donald trump they all look to me to be
00:51:59very like the kind of courtroom tactics of a certain type that i do see play out have seen
00:52:11at times play out in british courtrooms as in so much else it seems to me that keir starmer is unable to transcend
00:52:25his background he's unable to think beyond what he already knows he sticks to um this approach
00:52:38which may work in the courts that by by the way not nearly as well or as often as some people think
00:52:46but it absolutely doesn't work in the world of diplomacy certainly not against an adversary
00:52:54like vladimir putin now as i've been making this program i see that steve whitgolf um um trump's envoy
00:53:03has now made certain further comments of his own he has said that um donald trump has um announced some
00:53:16kind of a or has made imposed some kind of um ultimatum uh the president has issued an ultimatum to both
00:53:26sides that without those direct talks and if they don't occur quickly then he believes the united
00:53:33states ought to step back from this conflict whatever that means and not be involved this is something
00:53:40that we want to mediate it's not our war we didn't start the war but we want to help to end it the way
00:53:48that happens is a ceasefire everybody stops the violence and we spend a bit of time together making
00:53:55sure we can deal with the major issues here and i think we can if direct talks between russia and ukraine
00:54:03bring any result there will be a strong chance of getting an end to this conflict it's bad for the
00:54:10europeans it's bad for the ukrainians i don't think it's good for the russians well we've heard this so
00:54:18many times that unless there's direct talks or unless there's a ceasefire or unless there's progress the
00:54:25united states will walk away these ultimatums come from the administration at regular intervals they've
00:54:35been we've been hearing them for weeks now we even had a brief moment when the state department
00:54:43spokesman actually said that the united states had walked away from its so-called mediation efforts but
00:54:54we see that whenever they say that almost immediately they go back and they become involved
00:55:02anyway we will see how this plays out there's been more comments incidentally from um
00:55:10uh leonid slutsky who's chairman of the state consumer committee on international affairs
00:55:16he is scathing about zelensky he says on thursday our negotiators will be in istanbul regardless of
00:55:23kiev stance and they will be there and this clearly shows that today we
00:55:28we are materializing as the only general genuine peace oriented scheme which is proposed by our
00:55:38president and that strongly suggests that putin indeed is not going to go to istanbul and another
00:55:48russian diplomat rhodian miroshnik on television russia 24 television has said you know when somebody
00:55:56says let's just arrange a ceasefire and hope that the parties will not reach it i don't believe that
00:56:03such stories will work with ukraine because in this case the machine of data distortion comes into operation
00:56:10and some reports begin to be churned out and immediately sent to washington london or such
00:56:16some other place unfortunately this machine works which is why it is practically impossible to organize
00:56:23a steady ceasefire without a careful preparatory stage a ceasefire is an instrument that must be built
00:56:31into a separate peace mechanism this instrument by itself can't resolve the problem of achieving peace and
00:56:38all the more so a sustainable peace unfortunately so it looks to me as if putin is definitely not going
00:56:46to istanbul and as if as i've said already the russian stance is not in substance changing anyway let's
00:56:54move on because i said earlier in the program that i don't think the europeans fully understand
00:57:05quite how bad ukraine's military position actually is we've been through this before
00:57:14back in the summer of 2024 there was a whole narrative for a time about how the war was in stalemate
00:57:22and then over the course of the summer as the russians advanced towards pakrovsk and captured settlement after
00:57:30settlement and broke through one ukrainian defense line after another the mood began to shift and people
00:57:39in the west became increasingly more alarmed until eventually the winter came the cold weather and the
00:57:50rasputitsa that came the russian advance slowed though it never completely stopped the narrative
00:58:00that the russians were being held back by ukraine's vast drone fleet than started to circulate and
00:58:08you've got a kind of sense that with trump's peace efforts the focus on what was actually going on
00:58:18on the front lines was lost and the europeans fell back into complacency assuming that ukraine would be
00:58:29able to continue to hold out pretty much indefinitely well as i've been saying for some time now back
00:58:38in march basically after the russians drove the ukrainians out of kursk region the russians commenced their
00:58:49offensive and it's important to say that as with all russian offensives it's like one of those big moon
00:58:58rockets that um nasa used to launch saturn five and all that it appears to start quite slowly but then it
00:59:08gathers power and um eventually it is moving at speeds which practically no other vehicle
00:59:20uh human created vehicle of the time could hope to achieve well um we are now very much in that situation
00:59:32where the russian offensive is indeed gathering more and more speed and more and more power and as i have
00:59:41said and as russian officials have said andrei marochko for example the thing that distinguishes this
00:59:51offensive this year's offensive from the offensive that we saw last year in the summer of 2024 dramatic
00:59:59though that 2024 offensive was this offensive this year's offensive is one which is being conducted
01:00:08right across the entire contact line last year it was mainly focused on avdevka on the territory to the west of
01:00:21avdevka all the way to selidovo kurakovo ogledar and ultimately pakrovsk this time
01:00:32it's happening right across it's extending right across the entire battlefront and i should say that
01:00:42nowhere not in any place is there any sign of the ukrainians successfully holding back the russians
01:00:52for any length of time or are the ukrainians any longer succeeding in conducting counter-attacks
01:01:00now there are reports that not for the first time the ukrainians are now very very short of um artillery
01:01:09shells this has been a recurring story in the war they run very short of artillery shells the western powers
01:01:19cobble shells together they send them a supply the ukrainians managed to stabilize the situation for a few
01:01:27weeks then they run out of those shells the russians in the meantime increase their shelling
01:01:36and the ukrainians are forced to fall back and fall back badly because they can't withstand the shelling
01:01:45well it looks as if that whole cycle is repeating itself and the way it's playing out with the russian advances
01:01:57happening at the present time and with the increasingly heavy russian shelling and with the increasingly
01:02:06light ukrainian shelling it's starting to look to me as if the story that drones have successfully
01:02:20taken the place of artillery is being exposed as fundamentally false without strong artillery ukraine
01:02:31can't hold back the russians drones can do a certain amount of damage but they can't make up for the
01:02:38the absence of artillery and it is the absence of artillery and critical shortages of manpower which
01:02:48explain why the russians who have no shortage of manpower equipment or artillery or indeed drones
01:02:57are able to advance ever more strongly now in my program yesterday i said that there were reports
01:03:07reports that um the ukrainians had carried out a counter-attack over the course of the victory victory day
01:03:16truce in toretsk and that it had ended in complete disaster and that the russians had lured the ukrainian
01:03:29forces into torresk and then the attack force that was lured into torresk um was completely destroyed
01:03:41well i also said that there were reports that a um that um deep state the ukrainian mapping project
01:03:52had confirmed that but i hadn't actually managed to read those reports well i have now done so and they make
01:04:03they give a vivid account of an operation that failed and failed hideously i'm not going to read them read the
01:04:13report here but this as far as i can tell was the last important attack that the ukrainians have been able to
01:04:24make over the last couple of days everywhere else even now in on the territory of korsk region where the ukrainians
01:04:36were for a time trying to capture the village of totkino they've been thrown back on the defensive
01:04:43so let's do a quick rundown of where we stand firstly this morning reports were circulating across the
01:04:49internet i can't confirm them but i suspect that they're true that the village a strategically important
01:04:55village of bagatir in southwest donbass has now fallen in its entirety to the russians now this would
01:05:05be a battle for this fortified village that has played out over just a couple of days now i understand
01:05:15that bagatir had a population before the war of about the same size as the village of novomikhailovka
01:05:25which the russians fought something like six months to capture over the course of the winter
01:05:33of 22 20 sorry of 23 24 and the early spring of 2024 whereas bagatir it looks as if they've been able to
01:05:47capture in just a few days anyway this capture does appear to open the way for the russians to advance
01:05:58further westwards ultimately towards the dnieper into dnieper region uh their major objective in this part
01:06:09of the um battlefront seems to be a village called kumar which lies west of bagatir and north of velika
01:06:20and nova silka which the russians captured some months ago and if kumar is captured it's another
01:06:28logistics position that the ukrainians have and it opens the way for the ukraine russians to advance
01:06:34into dnieper region and potentially to the dnieper itself anyway those are the reports we'll see whether
01:06:42they are true where the bagatir has indeed fallen i saw telegram reports this morning from ukrainian
01:06:49sources which admitted that russian forces had captured the central area of bagatir but it could
01:06:58be that since those reports the russians have cleared the entire village anyway further north
01:07:05the russians continue to hold their um positions um in the village of zvirove um just southwest of
01:07:20pakrovsk but perhaps more alarming for the ukrainians the russians have now captured the village of
01:07:29mirolyubivka which lies to the east of pakrovsk and mirnograd south of the main road from pakrovsk to
01:07:41konstantinovka the russians have captured villages like vasvizhenka yelizavetivka they are apparently
01:07:52attacking another village called malinivka with mirolyubivka under russian control um
01:08:02there are two small villages mirny and mikolaivka left and then there's the more important village
01:08:11of novoekonomiczny and then essentially the russians have encircled pakrovsk from the east
01:08:22and are in a strong position to cut off ukrainian supply lines to pakrovsk from the north now the
01:08:30russians are saying that the fall of mirolyubivka opens the way for the attack on pakrovsk and it's
01:08:41our old friend andrei marochko and he's told tass the seizure of the settlement of mirolyubivka
01:08:50opens operational space in particular in the direction of mirnograd this is the city the
01:08:57town the suburb the eastern suburb of pakrovsk which is located close to pakrovsk so that is what
01:09:06marochko is saying um it is increasingly my belief that the battle of pakrovsk is going to begin in
01:09:15earnest this month and well that's pakrovsk um elsewhere for the ukrainians things also are going very
01:09:27badly um there's been a lot of reports about the situation in um in the area south of konstantinovka
01:09:38um a ukrainian allen analyst i'm taking this by the way from simply is the thinker but he's got a
01:09:46summary of some comments that have been said by several ukrainian analysts he's saying this ukrainian
01:09:54analyst maroshnikov says the enemy is already approaching the approaches to konstantinovka from
01:10:02the southwest that's only on one side but in the summer it will be much more convenient
01:10:08for the enemy to conduct a general occupation here nobody thinks the enemy will stop or make a deal
01:10:16they will attack and attack on mass and konstantinovka pokrovsk kupiansk and towards
01:10:23the oskol in the estuary direction and towards drushkivka and chas of yar only the armed forces
01:10:31of ukraine can stop this we're now hostage to trump's reluctance to provide us with new aid and well that's
01:10:39what he thinks he seems to think that the situation is getting worse and in fact there have been many
01:10:44reports in this area and they all seem to suggest that the situation is indeed getting a lot worse
01:10:52now yesterday redovka the russian newspaper based in smolensk also gave a summary of the fighting in this
01:11:04area um south of konstantinovka and i came away with the underst with the understanding after reading
01:11:21their reports that the russians have indeed now captured the central area of chas of yar there's only
01:11:29certain outlying micro districts left now redovka is very well informed it is not always 100 reliable
01:11:41and it may also be that there's a translation error but i have wondered where the russian advances
01:11:49north of chas of yar might mean that the central high-rise building area the so-called citadel area
01:11:57has fallen to the russians and um the ridovka report might suggest that it has done anyway all this is
01:12:07very dramatic and very important perhaps the most dramatic news however is coming from the area of liman
01:12:17um there are apparently confirmed reports that the russians have now entered the village of kolodiza kolodyazi
01:12:31which is located 11 11 kilometers north of liman and that they have also begun to storm another village
01:12:43called ritko dub which is located north of liman but which is often seen as essential for liman's defense
01:12:54and if kolodyazi and ritko dub fall and everybody assumes that they will then most assume that the fall of
01:13:07liman the this the third fall of liman in this conflict the first was when it was captured by the russians
01:13:15in i believe it was may 2022 the second was when it was recaptured by the ukrainians in i believe october
01:13:242022 the third capture of liman which will be the last capture of liman in this war may be coming very
01:13:37soon it may soon be upon us anyway there's been more information about further fighting to the north in
01:13:45um places like uh near copians the russians continue to advance beyond kamienko which they captured a short
01:13:56time ago um there's been reports that the russians are now approaching the eastern outskirts of the town of
01:14:08siversk anyway there's been lots of reports about this but given this length of the front lines it would
01:14:16probably take me at least an hour to give a detailed account of what is happening all i would say is
01:14:25the russian offensive is gathering speed it is advancing faster and faster
01:14:33and to say it straightforwardly i don't get the sense that the ukrainians are defending
01:14:45very successfully in any place anymore anyway i'm going to finish this program by touching on an important
01:14:56point about the china us tariff reduction agreement um i've already said that in my opinion um this was
01:15:09a win on points for china um the americans have brought down their tariffs on chinese goods to 30 percent
01:15:21which is less than the tariffs were on before liberation day when trump announced tariffs against china
01:15:35on liberation day the tariffs went up to 54 percent they're now 30 percent and notice that there's been
01:15:44significant calm carve outs and exemptions from some categories of chinese goods which are no longer
01:15:52affected even by these 30 percent tariffs but i've also said that i think that this is absolutely the correct
01:16:01thing for the u.s administration to do and i should also say that it seems to me that here trump and his
01:16:12people have pulled this off with some skill even though the u.s has to some extent climbed down
01:16:20it has managed to avoid the trump administration has managed to avoid any kind of political damage
01:16:29and well it all seems to me to show that the administration is successfully digging itself
01:16:41out of the hole with china that it had dug itself into but this is the key thing i want to say the united
01:16:49states has now had to pull back on tariffs with china there's been a lot of talk about secondary sanctions
01:17:00on countries that buy russian oil um is the united states i discussed this in my program yesterday going
01:17:10to reverse this agreement is just reached with china to reduce tariffs because the chinese continue to buy
01:17:19russian oil and gas well of course not so the whole idea of secondary tariffs on russian oil and gas is gone
01:17:32by the way the same is true of the whole idea of secondary tariffs or sanctions on countries that buy
01:17:42iranian oil china buys lots of iranian oil president trump wrote a angry comment on true social about a week
01:17:55ago saying that any country that buys iranian oil can no longer do business with the united states no actual
01:18:04tariff or anna or sanctions announcements follow that comment china as far as i know continues to buy iranian oil
01:18:15and nobody seriously believes that the united states is going to reverse the decision it has just made and stop
01:18:23trade with china so this whole idea of secondary sanctions and tariffs on china
01:18:34on russia really uh really it is now dead um i i've been reading absurd suggestions about what
01:18:45further sanctions on russia might be given that secondary sanctions really are not a practical idea anymore
01:18:55i read a suggestion that the european union might actually formally sanction nordstream 2
01:19:08i mean if if that really does happen if that is the plan then all i can say is um that uh the lunatics
01:19:16have indeed taken over the asylum because in that case the eu would be sanctioning
01:19:23a pipeline that no longer exists just say being blown up well there is one pipe admittedly but
01:19:31anyway it's not functioning it seems most bizarre but the big massive bone-crunching sanctions that lindsey
01:19:42graham has been talking about are hardly a viable proposition anymore
01:19:47there continues to be a narrative that without because of these sanctions
01:19:59russia is going to be prevented from developing its technologies it's going to lapse into long-term
01:20:09scientific and technological stagnation now firstly that massively underestimates um russia's own
01:20:20very considerable to say the least scientific and technological resources the soviet union after
01:20:29all was a scientific colossus and a technological colossus russia is not as big as the soviet union was but
01:20:37it's big enough and it's retained most of the soviet union's technological and scientific skills and it's
01:20:46built up and improved on them and personally i think the russians will be able more will be able to
01:20:56successfully match the west in most scientific and technological areas but that's my belief
01:21:04the russians now have a secure trading and economic relationship with china in economic terms a much bigger
01:21:18country than they are themselves and a country which everybody today now acknowledges is a scientific and
01:21:26technological colossus i have been reading an article recently it was on i think it was in unheard that china
01:21:37now probably leads the united states in ai and that they are very very close now to developing their own um chip
01:21:50industry to produce the high-end um chips that up to now only taiwan has been producing
01:22:00russia russia will be able to tap in to that technology chinese ai technology chinese chips
01:22:14assuming it really isn't able to make advanced chips and ai technology of its own which i believe
01:22:25it will and can now surely this also says that the whole idea of sanctions further sanctions on russia
01:22:40to suffocate its economy is now an exercise in complete futility
01:22:46it's not smashed the russians it's not led to a financial crisis in russia um the russian economy
01:22:56continues to grow not as fast as it did last year when according to the russians gdp growth was 4.3
01:23:06but it still seems to be above two percent at the moment and the economics ministry believes that
01:23:13growth this year will be 2.5 and will start to rise later of um in in later years
01:23:25once this period of slightly slower growth is passed so
01:23:33the next suggestion that russia faces long-term scientific technological
01:23:42stagnation that can't really work either so what ultimately are these sanctions for
01:23:53if you can't defeat the russians on the battlefields of ukraine and it must be obvious by now that you can't
01:24:01if you can't if you can't break them economically and you can't do that if you can't suffocate
01:24:13their economy to prevent them developing advanced technologies and as i said there's no chance of that
01:24:22any more
01:24:26what's the point isn't it better to deal with the russians now and to accept their terms
01:24:36which will at least preserve a ukraine without crimea shorn of the four regions
01:24:44outside nato with reduced armed forces but still a ukraine which might have a viable future in which
01:24:56its people would enjoy peace and might achieve economic prosperity
01:25:02over time is that not a much more realistic far more humane approach than wasting time
01:25:15in these complex intrigues trying to corner putin when you're really trying to corner trump
01:25:22trying to impose bone-crunching sanctions on the russians which aren't going to succeed
01:25:27stripping yourself of more and more weapons in order to stop a russian offensive which pentagon
01:25:36officials are comparing to a lava flow which simply cannot be stopped
01:25:43supporting a president in ukraine who is an eccentric and whose only ideas
01:25:54are to throw stunts like the suggestion that he should go to istanbul isn't it hard
01:26:07long you know beyond time when our leaders finally grew up and started to do serious things
01:26:16things for the people of ukraine for the people of europe for the united states for humanity as a whole
01:26:28well i asked these questions i don't expect anybody is listening anybody important is listening certainly
01:26:37not anybody from my government but anyway i think they are questions that should be posed
01:26:44this is where i finish today's program let me remind you again you can find all our programs on our
01:26:49various platforms locals rumble and x you can support our work via patreon and subscribe star and by going
01:26:56to our shop links under this video last but not least if you've lost this video please remember to tick the
01:27:03like button and to check your subscription to this channel that's me for today more from me soon have a very good day
01:27:13so
01:27:22so
01:27:24you