In a bold diplomatic twist, President Putin rejects the Starmer–Macron ultimatum, instead extending an invitation to Istanbul peace talks 🕊️🇹🇷.
But Zelensky declines, intensifying the deadlock.
As Europe pushes pressure, Russia plays the long game — and the geopolitical chessboard shifts once again. ♟️🌍
Alexander Mercouris breaks it all down.
#Putin #Zelensky #Macron #Starmer #IstanbulTalks #UkraineCrisis #RussiaUkraine #PeaceTalks #Geopolitics #AlexanderMercouris #InternationalPolitics #Diplomacy #WarAndPeace #RussiaNews #UkraineUpdate #NATO #EUPolitics #EastVsWest #GlobalTensions #WorldNews
But Zelensky declines, intensifying the deadlock.
As Europe pushes pressure, Russia plays the long game — and the geopolitical chessboard shifts once again. ♟️🌍
Alexander Mercouris breaks it all down.
#Putin #Zelensky #Macron #Starmer #IstanbulTalks #UkraineCrisis #RussiaUkraine #PeaceTalks #Geopolitics #AlexanderMercouris #InternationalPolitics #Diplomacy #WarAndPeace #RussiaNews #UkraineUpdate #NATO #EUPolitics #EastVsWest #GlobalTensions #WorldNews
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00good day today is a sunday 11th may 2025 and um yesterday was an extremely consequential day
00:00:10in terms of the evolution of the ukraine crisis consequential more in terms of the tactical
00:00:19maneuvering on the part of the various sides than in terms of any actual movement in terms
00:00:27of achieving a diplomatic resolution of the conflict but you can discuss it in many ways and
00:00:36i'm going to discuss most of this most of this program will be committed to discussing what
00:00:43happened yesterday but there's a few quick points which i do want to make the first is
00:00:49that what we also saw yesterday was what tends to happen when a bunch of amateurs
00:00:59which is what the leaders of the european states and vladimir zelensky basically are
00:01:07what happens when amateurs who feel very pleased with themselves and imagine themselves to be
00:01:14extremely clever people come up against a consummate and massively experienced professional
00:01:25speaking purely in terms of poker or chess there was absolutely no one no doubt at all about who came
00:01:36out the winner in terms of the political exchanges yesterday and the answer the short answer to that
00:01:42obviously is president vladimir putin of russia it was no contest there is something else i want to say
00:01:51too before i do proceed which is that the fact that putin was able to outmaneuver the west at least in
00:01:59presentational terms so comprehensively yesterday does say something about the man now over the last couple of
00:02:09days putin has been even by his standards incredibly busy since the 7th of may he has been hosting a host a whole
00:02:22a large group of world leaders led by the president of china 29 world leaders in total as well as various other
00:02:34important foreign foreign foreign guests such as marshal haftar of libya who by the way he met yesterday
00:02:42so he's had to meet all of these leaders he's had to engage in long and detailed discussions with
00:02:48president xi xinping of china a leader with an extraordinary mastery of detail at least the equal of putin's own
00:02:58he's had to conduct negotiations with the president of brazil president lula and of course president lula
00:03:05also came with a very strong delegation he's also had to meet other leaders as well vucic and fitzel and
00:03:15the presidents of egypt and ethiopia and all sorts of other countries he's had to attend a parade
00:03:24in moscow he's had to host leaders and russian citizens in various ceremonies conducted mostly in the kremlin
00:03:37he's also had to participate if only for a brief time in the march of the immortal regiment this is
00:03:49the regiment the march of russian citizens holding pictures of their fathers and grandfathers and
00:04:00great grandfathers who fought in the second world war in the great patriotic war he's also had to
00:04:09obviously engage in the various other things that the president of russia has to do
00:04:13um in order to govern that enormous country and yet notwithstanding that notwithstanding the fact
00:04:23that yesterday was dedicated to meeting foreign delegations despite the fact that he had a long
00:04:31meeting with a strong delegation from vietnam led by the general secretary of the vietnamese communist
00:04:40party who is of course the effective leader of vietnam uh mr tolam anyway he had to meet
00:04:47the vietnamese conduct a long and detailed discussion with them far into the night despite all of that
00:04:56at two o'clock in the morning he came looking fresh and um incisive um gave made met with the media
00:05:07and responded to the ultimatum russia received from the west and though he was careful to take no
00:05:17questions would have been extremely unwise to do so and admitted that both he and everyone else in the room
00:05:28was tired at least to a certain degree nonetheless he gave an accomplished performance very clear in all
00:05:38the things that he wanted to say and very much to the point and as i said putting the western powers
00:05:47in a position that they didn't expect to be in earlier over the course of the day
00:05:54it was a virtuoso performance and it is a sign again of putin's extraordinary physical stamina
00:06:03and tremendous intellectual energy that he was able to pull up something like that off
00:06:10i would say that he was absolutely right not to leave this whole um topic until later
00:06:20there was some speculation that he would wait until the following day until today in other words or even
00:06:27monday before responding to the ultimatum of the western leaders i think that by responding to it
00:06:37immediately or in effect immediately he did exactly the right thing i think if he'd waited there would have
00:06:47been speculation about disagreements and doubts within the kremlin and a perception of weakness on the
00:06:54russian side he instinctively or perhaps intellectually understood that that would be a very very bad look
00:07:02and as i said he responded immediately even though it must have been a demanding thing to do
00:07:11so what did happen yesterday now that we've got those preliminaries to one side well it seems to me that um
00:07:20the first thing to say about what happened yesterday is that despite some of the things that you see
00:07:29circulating in the media and which some western leaders especially have tried to imply
00:07:37the reality is that there has been no shift whatsoever on the part of the respective positions
00:07:44of the parties if you have been listening to these programs on this channel
00:07:49if you have been following what we've been saying on the duran you will know that for some time now
00:07:56since march to be precise since the meeting between the americans and the ukrainians in jeddah
00:08:02the americans and the ukrainians the ukrainians very unwillingly um under intense american pressure the americans
00:08:11and the ukrainians have supported a 30-day unconditional ceasefire the european powers
00:08:20who were unsure about whether they wanted a ceasefire came round to it immediately after the jeddah talks
00:08:30and in the weeks that have followed right up until yesterday have continuously insisted that there must be
00:08:40a 30-day ceasefire that the russians are somehow showing that they're not interested in a peaceful
00:08:48resolution of the crisis because they do not agree to this 30-day ceasefire
00:08:54and can i say that much of the rhetoric that we heard yesterday from the uh european leaders the four
00:09:02europe the three the four european leaders who came to uh kiev and to zelensky was rhetoric that we have
00:09:10heard before so keir starmer for example repeated his um trite comments no ifs and no buts
00:09:20putin and russia must simply accept an unconditional ceasefire um he's um made all kinds of points
00:09:32about the fact that the russians the fact that the russians are not agreeing to a ceasefire demonstrates
00:09:39that they're not really interested in peace all those kind of things um those of you those people
00:09:50who are familiar with the style of british debating societies something which as i said i've said in many
00:10:00programs one finds right across um the british political system and the british education system
00:10:08will be very familiar with the rhetoric that was coming out coming from starmer yesterday um
00:10:16the the point scoring point scoring which by the way also happens in british courtrooms particularly
00:10:25um courtrooms in criminal cases and it's important to remember that keir starmer uh his profession
00:10:32was that of a criminal law barrister i um i'm very familiar with this style of point scoring which is
00:10:43intended to influence juries by the way and for the record i don't believe it does but that's another
00:10:51another topic for another day anyway a lot of this a lot of these comments from keir starmer um and from
00:10:58the others things we've actually heard before and by the way the rhetoric that came from the european
00:11:09leaders yesterday was extraordinarily aggressive um ursula von der lion and the european commission
00:11:18and the council of europe the officials of the council of europe um had a meeting in ukraine
00:11:24separate from the one of the leaders in kiev but they had this meeting with ukraine in lvov and they
00:11:33agreed to set up a war crimes tribunal to try russian officials and russian leaders for supposed
00:11:41war crimes committed by russia over the course of the special military operation and there's little
00:11:47attempt to conceal the fact that vladimir putin himself is one of the targets for this this purported
00:11:56war crimes prosecution i would say straight away by the way that this court if it is set up in my opinion
00:12:05would have no basis in international law just saying um but anyway let's let's move on from that
00:12:14anyway friedrich matt couldn't help himself he also said that there'd been uh many war crimes committed
00:12:21by the russians um i get um over the course of the special military operation and that the russians
00:12:28needed to be tried for them um president macron of france made absolutely blunt statements about how france
00:12:40and the western powers and the western powers would continue to arm ukraine during any period of a
00:12:46ceasefire whether a 30-day ceasefire or an indefinite ceasefire the russians of course have previously said
00:12:55that in during any ceasefire intelligence intelligence sharing and arming of ukraine must stop
00:13:04that macron said on the contrary france and the others would insist upon it anna gozelensky went out of
00:13:14his way to describe um the various enormous sanctions that the russians would face if they didn't agree
00:13:23to the demand for the ceasefire the 30-day ceasefire that the european leaders were making now
00:13:31listening to all of this rhetoric the fact that they were combining all of this rhetoric with demands
00:13:41that russia agree immediately on monday to a 30-day ceasefire which is what came out of that meeting
00:13:50yesterday well of course to any russian official listening to that kind of rhetoric they would have
00:13:59concluded that these people in kiev the four western leaders uh the leaders of germany france britain and
00:14:09poland and of course the lenski himself they weren't really interested in peace they weren't really
00:14:15interested in a ceasefire what they're really interested in is a mechanism whereby russia capitulates
00:14:24and is defeated and is defeated and that this is really what this is all about some kind of attempt to
00:14:35bully coerce intimidate frighten the russians into agreeing to a ceasefire which would result in an
00:14:45ultimate surrender than capitulation of russia the rhetoric undermined the objective if the objective
00:14:56really was to agree to a ceasefire and i'm going to say something the proposal when it came was less than
00:15:05i'd expected the previous day when i made my video i had been expecting that what would probably happen as a
00:15:14result of that meeting in kiev was that the western powers and ukraine would agree that there would be
00:15:22a 30-day ceasefire and that ukraine would unilaterally declare it daring russia um to violate
00:15:35or breach it and that of course was consistent with the post that donald trump published
00:15:45the day before on truth social when he said that hopefully there would be a ceasefire ideally for
00:15:5430 days the united states would monitor the ceasefire and would impose sanctions on any violators as would
00:16:04europe as would the european powers and of course ukraine well not ukraine but anyway uh the european powers and
00:16:12the united states so it seems to me that trump at least was expecting a unilateral announcement by ukraine
00:16:24of a ceasefire and that by the way would have been a more difficult step for the russians to respond to
00:16:36if ukraine were to announce a 30-day ceasefire what were the russians what would the russians have done
00:16:45well they would certainly not have observed the ceasefire but would they have actually come out and said as
00:16:52much or would they have said that they would observe the ceasefire until it become clear that ukraine was
00:17:02not observing the ceasefire i expected that that would be what the ukrainians at least would do if only
00:17:13because it would put the russians presentationally speaking in a more awkward position anyway that
00:17:20didn't happen and it looks as if someone pushed back on that idea which in a telephone call with donald
00:17:31trump the european leaders and the ukrainians appear to have floated because as i said this is clearly what
00:17:38trump himself had been expecting i don't know exactly what discussions took place in kiev but i am going to
00:17:50make a guess that the party that pushed back against the idea of ukraine declaring a unilateral ceasefire
00:18:02was in fact ukraine i think the ukrainians remain still very very wary about ceasefires they weren't
00:18:11prepared to accept ceasefires before the meeting with the americans in jeddah in march unless they got
00:18:19a security guarantee from the united states at the meeting in jeddah they had to agree they were
00:18:26basically pressured by the americans into agreeing to a ceasefire without a security guarantee from the
00:18:34united states but i suspect that when the idea of a unilateral ceasefire was floated to them and we know
00:18:43that was true what was the case by the way because reports in the financial times
00:18:49and reuters said as much i suspect that ukrainian military chiefs pushed back they said that their
00:18:58military positions are coming under intense pressure that agreeing to a ceasefire which the russians
00:19:11announcing a ceasefire which the russians had not agreed to would be a recipe for military disaster
00:19:19and i suspect that zelensky who in the past has rejected ceasefires himself probably listened for
00:19:28once to what his generals had to say and told the western powers that ukraine was not in fact prepared to
00:19:36to enter into to declare a unilateral ceasefire in the way that some of the western leaders might have expected
00:19:46i would add that the fact that there has been some dispute and disagreement about this between the western
00:19:58powers and the ukrainians and the ukrainians may be indicated by the fact that the united states has not
00:20:09published a readout of the telephone conversation that we know donald trump had with the ukrainians and with
00:20:18the western powers which left trump assuming that yesterday ukraine would announce a unilateral ceasefire
00:20:30anyway there we are it didn't happen we did have this demand that the russians agree to a ceasefire
00:20:39are only given a few hours in which to agree the ceasefire was supposed to come into effect on monday there
00:20:47were threats of massive sanctions um against the russians if they didn't zelensky has given us some
00:20:55idea of what these sanctions are meant to be they're going to be against the so-called russian shadow fleet
00:21:03against the russian energy system against the russian banking system though as i said already
00:21:09what further sanctions can be imposed against the banking system in particular over and above
00:21:16what sanctions have already been imposed i for one am unable to see but anyway um
00:21:24that was the announcement we got an ultimatum to the russians to agree to a ceasefire starting on monday
00:21:34with a threat that if they didn't they would face all of these tough sanctions we were told by zelensky
00:21:44that the americans would support the sanctions and the european leaders came out with all of those
00:21:53extraordinarily threatening statements from starmer macron and maths that i have just spoken about
00:22:01which as i said would have been sufficient in and of themselves to persuade the russians
00:22:11that agreeing to a ceasefire was an extremely bad idea now
00:22:17now to repeat again the idea of a ceasefire a ceasefire which at best from an american point of view
00:22:31is intended to freeze the conflict that is what general kellogg who by the way enthusiastically backed this
00:22:42demand for a ceasefire in a tweet that he published over the course of yesterday uh that's what general
00:22:50kellogg appears to expect or alternatively a ceasefire leading to russia's ultimate capitulation which is
00:23:03what the ukrainians and the europeans demand this is after all the proposal the counter proposal they
00:23:11made to the american proposal that was presented to them um three weeks ago in paris and london
00:23:19the one that zelensky immediately rejected anyway uh whatever the intention of the ceasefire was meant to be
00:23:32as i've said the idea of a 30-day ceasefire is one which has been floating around
00:23:40in the west for a long time of course there is talk that if there is a 30-day ceasefire
00:23:49the negotiations to achieve a final settlement can begin
00:23:54and um anybody who believes that will happen is of course deluding themselves because based
00:24:05on the previous history based on what happened following the two minsk agreements the one that was
00:24:11agreed in september 20 23 2014 and the one which was agreed in february 2015
00:24:20what would actually happen is that with the military pressure called off the negotiations would continue
00:24:31interminably without any final outcome ukraine as macron confirmed would be re-equipped and re-armed
00:24:42and would reinforce itself and the conflict would at best become frozen as the americans appear to think
00:24:50except of course that the reality is that there would be at some point enormous pressure on the russians to
00:24:57capitulate perhaps with the threat that the war would be renewed anyway that was the european proposal made
00:25:10yesterday no different from the one that the europeans basically
00:25:16worked out and agreed with the ukrainians and which was presented to the americans
00:25:28at the meetings in paris and london two to three weeks ago the russians have always rejected this whole idea
00:25:39of temporary ceasefires they've always said the temporary ceasefires and freezes of the conflict will lead to
00:25:48an indefinite prolongation of the conflict they say that agreeing to such a ceasefire based on the previous
00:25:57history would be a major mistake that the way forward is to instead resume direct negotiations between russia and ukraine
00:26:10such as took place in february march and april 2022
00:26:18which resulted in the draft istanbul agreement which the ukrainians themselves
00:26:26signed and those negotiations incidentally all took place despite the fact that there was no ceasefire
00:26:35the russians have consistently said that given that ukraine has used siege fires to rearm and re-equip and to
00:26:44play for time they are not going to fall into the error of agreeing to that again and putin said all of this
00:26:55this on the 18th of this on the 18th of march firstly over the course of a telephone of a press conference
00:27:03he had with president lukashenko of belarus
00:27:07and also in a telephone conversation he had with president trump of the united states putin made clear
00:27:18over the course of those two events the press conference and the telephone call
00:27:23that in order for there to be any possibility of a ceasefire not only must effective monitoring systems
00:27:33be set up such as would ensure that the terms of the ceasefire were objectively enforced and honored
00:27:43but also in order to prevent the possibility of ukraine misusing the ceasefire in order to re-arm and re-equip and reinforce
00:27:56russia would insist that military supplies and intelligence to ukraine might must end and as we shall now see
00:28:06yesterday yesterday yesterday in the evening putin said exactly the same thing he said certainly
00:28:14direct negotiations but no unconditional ceasefire russia is not in principle opposed to a ceasefire
00:28:24but it must be on the on the basis that um he set out when he spoke to trump on the 18th of march
00:28:33and anyway let us now turn to what putin said because the kremlin has rushed out a um readout of uh putin's
00:28:46exact words firstly to say briefly before putin talked about the european ultimatum and i would stress
00:28:56this was an ultimatum ultimately by the europeans the united states backed it
00:29:01but was not exactly a party to it there were no american officials in kiev when the europeans and the
00:29:12ukrainians gave their ultimatum the only statement supporting the ultimatum was the one in effect made by
00:29:24general kellogg and even that pulled its punches a little but anyway putin's statement putin's comment
00:29:33yesterday was not just of course in response to the um ultimatum he also touched on the various
00:29:41discussions he'd had with the world leaders who had visited russia on the case on the occasion of the
00:29:48victory day celebrations anyway um i will now turn to what he said however and i will focus exclusively
00:29:59on what he said about the western the european ultimatum that had been delivered or at least made
00:30:09publicly made to russia a few hours before um i think it is obvious to everyone during the negotiations
00:30:19and meetings here in moscow the issue of setting the conflict in ukraine was also touched upon
00:30:26we are grateful to all our guests our friends for the attention they are paying to the conflict and for
00:30:34the efforts they're making to end this conflict in this regard i believe it is necessary to dwell on
00:30:41this topic separately so putin goes out of his way to make clear it's not just the europeans and the
00:30:48americans who are concerned about the conflict in ukraine russia's friends are concerned about the
00:30:56conflict in ukraine as well the russians will have discussed the conflict with china and brazil which have
00:31:03also made various proposals about how the conflict might be settled but anyway he then went on to say
00:31:10this i would like to say as is known russia has repeatedly put forward initiatives to cease fire
00:31:18but these initiatives have been sabotaged time and again by the ukrainian side
00:31:25thus the kiev regime has demonstrably violated the 30-day i would like to emphasize this 30-day moratorium
00:31:36on attacks on energy facilities which was declared in accordance with our agreement with the president
00:31:43of the united states that it by the way is true nobody nobody seriously doubts that throughout the 30-day
00:31:52ceasefire the truce on attacks on energy facilities ukraine made repeated attacks on ukrainian on russian energy
00:32:02facilities um the ukrainians of course have made allegations that the russians violated the ceasefire as well
00:32:11but they barely hidden the fact that they didn't observe it and there's been media reporting
00:32:21even in the west about the fact that ukraine as well as russia supposedly did not accept did not abide by this 30-day
00:32:33truce on attacks against energy facilities of course the russians insist that they have complied but
00:32:42as i said whether you accept that or not there is no real doubt that the ukrainians didn't
00:32:48he then put in the went on to say this the easter truce initiated by russia was not observed either
00:32:56the ceasefire was violated by ukrainian forces almost 5 000 times nevertheless on victory day and we
00:33:05consider this a holy holiday for us you can only imagine we have 27 million losses we declared a truce for the
00:33:12third time on this holy holiday for us we conveyed to those of our colleagues in the west who in my
00:33:22opinion are sincerely seeking ways to resolve the situation our opinion on this issue on the ceasefire
00:33:30on victory day that in the future we do not rule out the possibility of extending the terms of this truce
00:33:39but of course after analyzing what would happen in these few days based on the results of how the kiev
00:33:48regime would react to our proposal so what putin says here is that he told the americans or at least
00:33:56the russians told the americans during prior to the announcement of the victory day truce that if
00:34:04the ukrainians observed the ukrainians observed the three-day victory day truce that the russians might
00:34:13be open to extending it though they were not making any commitments but then he says this and what did we
00:34:20see what were the results the kiev authorities did not respond to our proposal for a ceasefire at all
00:34:29after our proposal was announced the kiev authorities launched large-scale attacks from may 6th to may 7th
00:34:38the strike involved 524 drones and a number of western-made missiles and 45 backup boats unnamed unmanned
00:34:48boats which were also used in the black sea in fact during the three days of the ceasefire the 8th 9th
00:34:57and 10th of may what happened was what you all saw in the media in fact from your own reports it was
00:35:04clear during this time five targeted attempts were made to attack the state border of the russian federation
00:35:12in the course region and at the junction with belgorod region precisely on the days of the ceasefire we
00:35:20declared he's absolutely right as i've discussed this in previous programs zelensky sent fleets of drones
00:35:28to try and attack moscow even as well even as world leaders were gathering there
00:35:35and ukrainian attempts to break into coast region to capture the village of totkin continued relentlessly
00:35:47throughout the entire period of the ceasefire and then putin continues in addition 36 more attacks
00:35:53were undertaken in other directions all these attacks including attempts to penetrate the territory
00:35:58of the russian federation in kusk and belgorod regions were repelled moreover our military experts believe
00:36:06that they had no military significance were carried out solely for political reasons and the enemy
00:36:13suffered very heavy losses so buddini says that these attacks didn't even serve any military objectives
00:36:23they were intended to embarrass the russians and spoil the celebrations of the holiday on the 9th of may
00:36:31now i would very quickly say that i don't believe that the russians fully observed the three-day victory day
00:36:43ceasefire either but of course this is putin putting his and russia's case and i'm not going to
00:36:52dwell on that at this time anyway he then goes on to say the kiev authorities not only rejected our ceasefire
00:37:01proposal but as we all saw tried to intimidate leaders of states who gathered for the celebrations in moscow
00:37:10and then again it's true no question about this zelensky made comments about how ukraine could not
00:37:17guarantee the safety of leaders who attended the victory day celebrations it is a matter of public
00:37:23record that he said that and of course he continued to send fleets of drones towards moscow even as leaders
00:37:31like si shimping were arriving in moscow and then he went on to say i musk putin went on to say
00:37:43when i met with colleagues here in moscow i had the following thought i will share with you
00:37:49who did they try to intimidate of those who came to moscow to celebrate the victory over
00:37:56nazi germany who did they try to intimidate after all those who came to us are leaders not by official
00:38:07position not by position they are leaders of character by their convictions and by their readiness
00:38:15to defend their convictions and who tried to intimidate them those who stand at attention in front of salute
00:38:27and applaud former and he spoke about the soldiers of an infamous military formation of the nazi era
00:38:37which added sensitivity to the platform i'm not going to name and he went on to say that this these
00:38:45same people elevate to the rank of national heroes those who collaborated with the germans during the
00:38:52second world war it seems to me that this is an attempt with clearly inadequate means and those who
00:38:59are trying to do this do not correspond to the scope that they themselves are counting on now he's not
00:39:05just referring to zelensky here he's referring to the leaders of the west you could see the studied
00:39:13contempt that he feels for all of them he's very careful not to express it in words but clearly
00:39:22he has no time for any one of them and then putin goes on to say we have repeatedly proposed steps to
00:39:31cease fire we have never refused to engage in dialogue with the ukrainian side let me remind you once
00:39:37again it was not we who interrupted the negotiations in 2022 it was the ukrainians in this regard despite
00:39:46everything and now we come to the key point we propose that the kiev authorities resume the negotiations
00:39:55they interrupted at the end of 2022 resume direct negotiations i emphasize without preconditions
00:40:06we propose to start without delay next thursday 15th may in istanbul where they were held earlier and
00:40:14where they were interrupted as is known turkish colleagues have repeatedly offered their services to
00:40:21organize such negotiations and president erdogan has done a lot to organize them let me remind you
00:40:29that as a result of these negotiations a joint draft document the istanbul agreement was prepared
00:40:36and it was initiated initialed by the head of the kiev negotiating group but at the insistence of the west
00:40:44is it was it was simply thrown into the dustbin tomorrow we will have a conversation with president
00:40:52of turkey mr erdogan i want to ask him to provide such an opportunity to hold negotiations in turkey
00:41:00i hope that he will confirm his desire to contribute to the search for peace in ukraine i'm going to
00:41:07anticipate i am absolutely sure that erdogan will confirm that turkey is indeed prepared to host
00:41:14negotiations between russia and ukraine and then he went on to say putin went on to say
00:41:21we are committed to serious negotiations with ukraine the purpose is to eliminate the root causes of the
00:41:27conflict all the things that the russians have been talking about putin has been talking about
00:41:33since the start of the special military operation of the territorial question the status of the four
00:41:41regions the status of crimea the fact that ukraine cannot become a member of nato that it must once
00:41:48again become a neutral non-aligned country guarantees for russia that that will not change in the future
00:41:58potential security guarantees for ukraine but combined with restrictions radical restrictions
00:42:06on the size of the ukrainian armed forces um major changes to the ukrainian political system
00:42:15so as to ensure protections for russian speakers and for the russian orthodox church all of those things
00:42:27uh so the purpose is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict to establish a long-term lasting peace
00:42:36for the historical perspective and then he went on to say this we do not rule out that during these
00:42:42negotiations it will be possible to agree on some new truces a ceasefire so those words we do not rule out
00:42:54that during these negotiations it will be possible to agree on some new truces a new ceasefire
00:43:02was a rejection of the ultimatum made by macron starmer mouths tusk and zelensky earlier in the day because
00:43:17what putin is saying is that he's not prepared to agree to this ceasefire that the western powers
00:43:26are insisting upon and demanding that a ceasefire can be agreed over the course of negotiations between
00:43:41russia and ukraine but it cannot proceed negotiations it must be the result of not of negotiations not
00:43:53a mechanism leading to negotiations and that has been the russian position all along and again to repeat
00:44:02what putin is saying is no different than what he has said many times before and then putin continued
00:44:10moreover a real truce which would be observed not only by russia but also by the ukrainian side would be
00:44:17the first step i repeat to a long-term sustainable peace and not a prologue to the continuation of the
00:44:26armed conflict after the rearmament the replenishment of the ukrainian armed forces and the feverish digging
00:44:33of trenches and new strongholds who needs such a peace our proposal is as they say on the table
00:44:45the decision is now up to the ukrainian authorities and their curators now again notice the contrast he's
00:44:54he's never mentioned here macron starmer melts um tusk he doesn't use any of the vitriolic and abusive
00:45:06language they all use about him he just mildly refers to them as ukraine's curators
00:45:17who apparently guided by their personal political ambitions not by the interests of their people
00:45:27want the war with russia through the hands of ukrainian nationalists to continue so basically
00:45:36again he's saying that these leaders in effect are conducting a proxy war against russia the freeze that
00:45:46they're trying to achieve or the attempt to try to get the united states into the war on their behalf is just
00:45:56an insincere mechanism to enable them to achieve victory it is not really intended to achieve a true and
00:46:10lasting peace and then he concludes with the words i repeat russia is ready for negotiations without
00:46:19preconditions there are military actions a the there are military actions a war interesting that he for
00:46:27the first time refers to war and this is a prepared document by the way so he's not talking about special
00:46:33military operation here i think this is the first time putin has actually used the word war to describe
00:46:43the conflict and that might by the way just to say be a precursor to a relabeling a broader relaboring a
00:46:57reformatting of the special military operation and upgrading of the special military operation into
00:47:07something something something much bigger just saying but anyway the there are military actions a war
00:47:15that's in the kremlin readout just also make it clear the english translation of it and we propose to
00:47:21resume negotiations that were interrupted not by us what is wrong with that those who truly want peace
00:47:32peace cannot but support this and then again and in studded contrast to macron starmer merts uh tusk
00:47:45zelensky of course and the leaders of the other leaders of the west usula and all of the others what does
00:47:54he do here goes away and extends his thanks he says at the same time i would like to once again
00:48:01express my gratitude for the mediation services the efforts aimed at a peaceful settlement of the
00:48:07ukrainian crisis which are being undertaken by our foreign partners and these are china brazil
00:48:14countries of africa the middle east and recently the new administration of the united states of america
00:48:22america it is an absolutely masterly statement it was incredibly carefully constructed clearly the russians
00:48:35knew what was coming and must have been working on it over the course of the day there is no doubt
00:48:40at all that putin himself had his own direct input into this document but it is a masterly statement it
00:48:50it itemizes the previous recent breaches of the ceasefire it goes out of its way to
00:49:02show that the russians have been continuously engaging with the americans
00:49:08uh it discusses uh it discusses in a very careful way the idea of a ceasefire and certainly rejects the
00:49:21ultimatum delivered by the european powers without even actually mentioning it it makes no reference at
00:49:34all to the threat of sanctions it simply disregards that entirely um putin's spokesman peskov previously
00:49:43said that the russians are not afraid of sanctions that they've become used to sanctions well putin is
00:49:52so unimpressed by sanctions that he doesn't even condescend to mention them and that he does the very
00:50:01thing which the ukrainians and the western powers failed to do i said that a much cleverer move
00:50:10presentationally speaking not in terms of the substance by the europeans and the ukrainians
00:50:16would have been for ukraine to declare a unilateral ceasefire dare the russians to break it and then
00:50:24impose sanctions but for whatever reasons they pulled back from doing that and delivered yesterday's
00:50:33ultimatum instead well putin who must be who must have noticed that this didn't happen goes ahead and
00:50:45does that very thing from the other side he says let's go ahead let's have direct negotiations let's begin
00:50:53on thursday let's um get erdogan to make all of the arrangements we're going to appoint our negotiating
00:51:02team we're going to send our negotiators to istanbul on thursday we're ready to talk we're prepared to
00:51:11continue from where we left off in april 2022 when the ukrainians walked out it's up to the ukrainians now
00:51:20it's up to them they can come if they come we can negotiate we can talk we might even find our way
00:51:29eventually to a ceasefire after all that's what sometimes happens over the course of peace negotiations
00:51:40peace negotiations and these negotiations obviously will be based on the istanbul agreement of april 2022
00:51:51but heavily modified to reflect the existing realities and
00:52:00if negotiations could start in that way on thursday then we are on our way to a long
00:52:10sustainable just and lasting peace a real peace not another
00:52:19frozen conflict not another interval in a conflict allowing ukraine to re-arm and re-equip and dig trenches
00:52:29and prepare for the next round but a genuine true
00:52:33firm peace so
00:52:40if you look at the statements of the western leaders afterwards it's clear that they didn't expect this
00:52:48they absolutely did not expect putin to propose negotiations direct negotiations to invite the ukrainians
00:52:57to engage in direct negotiations on thursday and the western leaders mindful of the fact that trump
00:53:07is keen to move towards some kind of end to the conflict
00:53:14mindful perhaps also that jd vance the vice president has been saying that the united states
00:53:23should forget about peace the uh ceasefires and focus on getting the negotiations
00:53:30started the europe europeans have been
00:53:35obviously um wrong-footed and they haven't been completely clear in their messaging since
00:53:43so macron for example said that this was a step in the right direction
00:53:47it is regarding or ignoring the fact that it was what the russians have been proposing um all along
00:53:54um certainly since april 2022 um but anyway uh macron said it was a step in the right direction
00:54:02others have sort of said the same thing the ukrainians clearly are unhappy zelensky has also come out and
00:54:14said well you know it is a step in the right direction but of course he insists as he always has
00:54:20that first there has to be a ceasefire and that also is what jermak has also said so trump has responded
00:54:33he has come out and he spoke enthusiastically about the events of yesterday and i wonder whether he's fully
00:54:44understood quite what has been going on but he speaks about a potentially great day for russia and ukraine
00:54:52think of the hundreds of thousands of lives that will be saved as this never-ending bloodbath
00:54:57hopefully comes to an end it will be a whole new and much better world i will continue to work with both
00:55:05sides to make sure that it happens the usa wants to focus instead on rebuilding and trade
00:55:11a big week coming so what is he going to do the russians have rejected the ultimatum
00:55:20which required them to agree to a ceasefire on monday which is to say tomorrow doesn't sound from this
00:55:29statement as if trump intends to impose sanctions on russia he seems to think that things have moved
00:55:38forward so things are moving forward why would he want to go ahead and impose massive sanctions
00:55:46there's word now by the way that whitgoff steve whitgoff is going to be flying to moscow for the fifth
00:55:54time what exactly is he going with well according to nbc he's going to moscow with a 22 point proposal
00:56:04it seems to be heavily modeled on the european plan the russians will probably presumably say to wit
00:56:15goff when he comes putin will say to wait goff when he comes well this is all very very interesting
00:56:21maybe we can work with some of this apparently the 22 point plan accepts that ukraine will not be a member
00:56:29of nato for example at least that the united states will not work towards making ukraine
00:56:37a member of nato very vague and ambiguous and hardly enough in itself to satisfy the russians
00:56:45but i suspect the russians again will say work in progress uh all the step forward but what we really
00:56:53need to have here is direct negotiations with ukraine so what exactly is trump planning to do is he going
00:57:05to impose the sanctions because he the russians have rejected his ultimatum or is he going to try to get
00:57:15the ukrainians to agree to send their delegation to istanbul on thursday or is he going to try to do both
00:57:25at the same time does he completely understand what has been happening here and what all of these moves
00:57:37in the poker game or chess game if you prefer actually amount to well the ukrainians far less elegantly
00:57:49than putin have rejected putin's proposal they've all but said that they're not going to send a delegation
00:58:00to istanbul they're going to insist that there is a ceasefire first they're not interested in a negotiation unless
00:58:10there is a ceasefire so going back to what i said previously earlier in the program
00:58:19a complex poker game lots of moves backwards and forwards statements from the europeans boorish and
00:58:33arrogant statements as the russians by the way have complained um obviously similarly boorish and arrogant
00:58:41statements from the ukrainians an elegant masterly response from putin rising above all the abuse and the bile
00:58:55but ultimately things are still exactly where they were the russians won't won't agree to a ceasefire
00:59:03unless there are negotiations and they see that ceasefire originating from negotiations as a a product if you will
00:59:19of the negotiations whilst the ukrainians not really interested in negotiations seeking to freeze the
00:59:27conflict so that they can rebuild their forces back by the europeans who basically want to force russia
00:59:34into some kind of capitulation ultimate capitulation the ukrainians not willing to sit down or negotiate
00:59:42but wanting a ceasefire an unconditional ceasefire which essentially would be not so much a ceasefire
00:59:54as an armistice intended eventually to lead to russia's capitulation and ukraine's victory as outlined in the
01:00:08alternative peace proposal put together by the europeans and the ukrainians and presented to the americans
01:00:17three weeks ago in the talks in paris and london so
01:00:25no real shifts but i'm going to suggest here perhaps
01:00:32a movement in presentational terms towards the position that the russians are taking
01:00:44in terms of global opinion opinion outside the west the russians it is the russians who have come out on top
01:00:57they might just possibly have come out on top with one particular individual who is donald trump
01:01:07himself as i said he seems to be responding enthusiastically to these moves including
01:01:16presumably to putin's moves it looks likely that at some point he is going to back come out and back
01:01:23direct negotiations between the ukrainians and the russians
01:01:28i got the impression from his previous truth social posts that he doesn't really have much conviction in the idea of a ceasefire
01:01:43and that he's not ultimately that enthusiastic about sanctions either and it could be that he sees
01:01:52in these words of putin a way to avoid imposing those sanctions though things are so changeable in washington
01:02:07this administration changes direction so suddenly that no one no one should assume that that is the case
01:02:16and to be honest if sanctions are announced tomorrow including by the united states i for one will be neither
01:02:26neither disappointed nor surprised but anyway there it is um
01:02:33one of the most skillful and intelligent and masterly ways of rejecting a ceasefire
01:02:41oh i'm sorry an ultimatum i have seen uh one that belittles the the adversary and makes the adversary seem angry and
01:02:58amateurish one which preserves the russian position intact one by the way made by a leader
01:03:09who undoubtedly feels that he's in a position of great strength and of course this now brings us to the
01:03:16whole topic of the sanctions because even if we do get these additional sanctions as i discussed at length in my
01:03:26program yesterday what will these sanctions actually achieve they will cause some problems for the
01:03:36russians for a short time though peskov in one of the many interviews he gave yesterday said that the
01:03:44russians have already anticipated and prepared for these further sanctions if all of the sanctions that have been
01:03:54unveiled over the last three years have not broken the russian economy the latest sanctions package the new
01:04:02sanctions package that has been talked about won't do so either there are already divisions and rifts appearing
01:04:09in europe uh fitzo uh went to moscow alban perhaps wisely stayed away but his foreign minister peter siato
01:04:23has made further comments strongly critical of the european stance and say that the europeans appear to be
01:04:31be obsessed with continuing to be obsessed with continuing the war even though it is obvious it ought to be
01:04:38obvious by now that victory is unachievable and well what else will the sanctions achieve probably more economic
01:04:50problems for the west higher energy costs across europe in particular more inflation possibly maybe for forcing the
01:05:00european central bank to reverse its policy of cutting interest rates which would be a disaster for a european
01:05:09economy that is already in effect in recession it all seems extraordinarily pointless and well
01:05:19well the european leaders spoke yesterday about how if the russians rejected their ultimatum
01:05:30ukraine would continue to receive weapons but ukraine is continuing to receive weapons anyway emmanuel macron
01:05:41after all said incredibly reckless and in fact idiotic admission that it was that if the russians
01:05:52committed to the ceasefire ukraine would still receive weapons and if the russians didn't commit to the ceasefire ukraine
01:06:02would still receive weapons so what exactly would the difference be what exactly would change if the ceasefire
01:06:15were agreed or not the united states is keen to reduce the flow of weapons from its inventories to ukraine because
01:06:25those inventories are running low and the united states is already thinking of future wars with china and perhaps with iran
01:06:33the europeans as an article in the new york times acknowledged is in no position to make up a diff make a difference
01:06:43in the event that the americans stop sending supplies to ukraine there's been a great deal of commentary in the media
01:06:57about the fact that again over the last couple of hours the united states has green-lighted a transfer by germany of a hundred
01:07:05patriot missile interceptors to ukraine um and apparently some more missiles for the attackants system
01:07:19well it's important to say that these weapons perhaps come from german stockpiles rather than american ones
01:07:31but a hundred missile interceptors sounds like a lot of missile interceptors but bear in mind that it
01:07:41usually needs two interceptors to bring down an incoming russian missile that's assuming the interceptors
01:07:54actually succeed in intercepting the missile the russians in their missile strikes usually
01:08:00they send 50 70 sometimes even 100 sometimes even more than 100 missile interceptors
01:08:08in a single strike and that doesn't of course include the gerans and all of that so the germans
01:08:16are supplying to ukraine enough interceptors missile interceptors patriot missile interceptors to deal
01:08:25perhaps with a single missile strike carried out by the russians how many missile strikes do the russians
01:08:34carry out against ukraine in any calendar year more than one um as for attackers missiles more attackers
01:08:45missiles maybe or perhaps more high mars missiles it's not clear what it is precisely that we're talking about
01:08:53well jake sullivan admitted that the attackums have proved a disappointment and the high mars has been
01:09:01effective in some battlefield situations but not consistently so and as it happens over the last
01:09:11two weeks the russians have been able to destroy another three high mars launches so hardly enough to
01:09:20change the military balance on the battlefields so you can see why putin feels in a position of advantage
01:09:30when it comes to economic pressure on russia the russians have largely insulated themselves from sanctions
01:09:39and as i have discussed many times and in many places they have a mostly self-sufficient economy
01:09:46they produce their own food they produce in abundance their own energy they have all of their raw materials
01:09:54that they need they have a diversified and large industrial base even though this is a fact that many
01:10:01westerners find difficult to acknowledge but more importantly all of their leading trading partners
01:10:11came to moscow and attended the 9th may victory day celebrations the chinese were there led by their
01:10:18president the brazilians were there maybe brazil is not a huge trading partner for russia but it is
01:10:25very busy setting up the alternative monetary and transfer and payment systems that are part of the brics
01:10:33which of course the russians are interested in other countries were also there um asian countries were
01:10:39there um it doesn't look as if the russia's friends are in any mood to turn against it if we're talking
01:10:53about asian for example one of the leading asian powers one of the countries of the most dynamic and fast
01:11:02growing economies in the world vietnam was there with a strong delegation and they had a long and
01:11:09friendly meeting with putin and it looks as if economic cooperation between russia and vietnam will
01:11:17forge forward and vietnam apparently sought and russia agreed that russia should build nuclear power
01:11:26stations for vietnam in vietnam so this threat this threat that was made yesterday it might have seemed
01:11:41impressive to those who were making it to starma macron maths tusk and co but it won't have impressed the
01:11:53russians i ought to say that yesterday looking at the comments on the thread of my last video i i actually
01:12:01did see um a comment which in my opinion captured the absurdity all of it all um the western powers come
01:12:12along and give russian russia an ultimatum and the threat is that if russia doesn't capitulate
01:12:24they will impose tariffs on it i mean is this serious i mean it has something of the big bad wolf
01:12:33quality about it you know if you don't do what i want i'll huff and i'll puff and i'll blow your house
01:12:40down and it it's hardly the sort of thing that is going to make any impact in moscow and it clearly didn't
01:12:51make any impact with putin yesterday at all in his careful elegant way he brushed it aside now
01:13:06what is going to happen i'm going to suggest that the best thing that could happen is for donald trump
01:13:11to telephone zelensky and tell donald trump and tell zelensky right you're going to send your delegation to
01:13:17meet putin's people in istanbul and you're going to get intel uh negotiations started and if you don't
01:13:25i'm ending all armed supplies and i'm ending intelligence sharing and as for sanctions
01:13:33further sanctions on russia you can forget it uh negotiations is clearly the way to go
01:13:40that is what you should do and um sanctions tariffs all of that makes absolutely no sense the united
01:13:51states wants to end the conflict and the way to end the conflict is through negotiations with the other
01:13:58side will donald trump do that i'm not holding my breath with this incredibly confused situation in
01:14:07washington with some people people like wick golf and vance perhaps having some understanding of the
01:14:19underlying position but so many others
01:14:22others trump himself to some extent rubio definitely um kellogg absolutely not getting it
01:14:34with the europeans determined to break russia in some way and if possible to get the power of
01:14:45the united states to exert itself on russia so as to break it with zelensky and his people
01:14:52constantly maneuvering and trying to find all sorts of ways to involve the united states directly in the
01:15:00war because that is the only way to achieve victory well with this chaotic situation i don't believe that
01:15:12donald trump is going to do any of those things i said previously that i thought that if tomorrow
01:15:21the americans and the europeans do announce further sanctions i would be neither surprised nor disappointed
01:15:32i would rephrase that i would say on balance i expected after all if you
01:15:42you announce an ultimatum and then you failed to carry out the threat
01:15:53which lies behind that ultimatum when the ultimatum itself is rejected then you lose face and you appear weak
01:16:07and that is something that none of the western leaders are prepared to contemplate so
01:16:20despite everything some kind of a sanctions announcement will doubtless appear tomorrow
01:16:27and that will make resolution of the war more difficult because of course with the sanctions
01:16:36announcement with renewed arms supplies to ukraine the russians will be in a position to take
01:16:46a stronger position they will come to their allies and their friends and they say look what reasonable
01:16:53people we were we've explained our reasons we're not rushing into this um um ultimatum into the ceasefire that
01:17:03the americans and the europeans and now the ukrainians are talking about but what do we get we get threats
01:17:10we get ultimatums we get renewed arms supplies we get further sanctions well we are suggesting the obvious thing
01:17:23which is that we and the ukrainians sit down and talk so how can you blame us
01:17:32if the war goes on it is the other side that is driving the war they're not really interested in peace
01:17:42they still want to secure victory and we have no alternative therefore but to continue to resist them
01:17:50them well one of the things that putin didn't mention in his comments yesterday at least not explicitly
01:18:01was that shortly before he made his comments the three-day truce for the victory day celebrations
01:18:09had actually expired but it's clear that the truce has not been renewed and in fact over the course of the
01:18:21last couple of hours well there have been a lot more reports of further russian advances across the battle
01:18:28fronts i am not going to do a summary today to do so would take too long and would if i did it in a very
01:18:35brief and summary manner i don't think it would justify it would it would give a proper sense
01:18:43of what is actually playing out on the ukrainian battlefields
01:18:48what i will say is this putin has now used the word war for the first time there are reports that
01:18:59the airspace over kaputsin yar the test center from which the oreshnik missile
01:19:06is is launched has been closed many people expect an oreshnik strike within the next couple of days
01:19:16maybe if the ukrainians don't turn up in istanbul on thursday maybe if further sanctions and arms
01:19:25supplies to ukraine are indeed announced tomorrow maybe we will see the russians start to launch more
01:19:33arashnik missiles at ukraine maybe at some point after the rejection of the latest
01:19:42proposal for talks the russians will move and upgrade the special military operation into something
01:19:55more serious which might allow them more leeway to expand their military operations in ukraine
01:20:06the use of the word war by putin in carefully prepared written comments
01:20:17a word that has been repeated in the readout of his words the transcript of his words provided by the
01:20:25kremlin suggests that something like that might indeed be on its way and is it not
01:20:33possible that this also aligns with the assembly of the two reserve armies the information
01:20:44about the russians preparing for a big summer offensive is it not all probable that that is exactly the
01:20:54direction in which events are going well we shall see anyway let me now quickly discuss um one further
01:21:10piece of news um and i'm only going to do touch on it very briefly i have been extremely concerned over the
01:21:18last couple of days as everyone will know about the clashes between india and pakistan i think that it is
01:21:31unequivocally good news that both sides have agreed to de-escalation and that there is now a ceasefire
01:21:38in place a ceasefire in this conflict is easy to monitor monitor because by the way there are no actual
01:21:46clashes between ground forces the entire battle has been conducted in the air using air and missile
01:21:55strikes but and drone strikes by each side against the other i'm not going to try and work out
01:22:04exactly what happened we will no doubt get all kinds of discussions and reports about this over the course
01:22:12of the next few days and weeks i will just make a number of quick observations it seems to me that the
01:22:20americans did play a very important facilitating role uh donald trump has spoken about this and that is
01:22:28good news um that the americans did agree to act as a kind of mediator uh mediators between the indians
01:22:37and the pakistanis i would also quickly say that i think that both sides were beginning to get
01:22:49concerned that the situation was indeed getting out of control and that there was urgency on the part of
01:22:58both sides to bring the fighting to an end before it escalated to truly dangerous levels i think both sides
01:23:08made mistakes i am deeply skeptical in fact i don't believe pakistani claims that they had no role in the
01:23:18incident in cashmere i mean i don't know that for a fact but i would i find it difficult to believe
01:23:26that at some level some agencies of the pakistani state did not at least have some foreknowledge
01:23:37and probably more than that in that incident i think that
01:23:46india however also overplayed its hand in the response in its response and here i'm going to refer to
01:23:56prime minister modi's or rather the indian government statements about suspending and perhaps
01:24:06cancelling the 1960 indus valley sorry indus river treaty which would have been created an existential crisis
01:24:20for pakistan and perhaps a humanitarian catastrophe it was a incredibly confrontational thing to do something
01:24:30that india has not to my knowledge ever done before and there was no point in this threat anyway because i have
01:24:39it on excellent authority that for the moment at least the engineering means to stop the flow of water through
01:24:49the indus river into pakistan simply does not exist so why say something like that the rhetoric got out of control
01:25:00on both sides hopefully they will each learn lessons from this the pakistanis finally to stop this perennial habit
01:25:15of supporting these dangerous people who carry out these crimes in cashmere the indians to restrain some of
01:25:26their rhetoric and perhaps to revisit some of their other policies and lessons will be learned and we will
01:25:35have a more stable peace between these two countries i have to say that would be that based more on hope
01:25:45than experience but anyway that's that's where it is i am very very relieved that this incident for the moment
01:25:55despite apparent breaches of the ceasefire which hopefully have abated that this current um iteration of
01:26:05this conflict now seems to be over now there have also been trade talks between china and the united states
01:26:15which have happened at an undisclosed location somewhere in switzerland president trump has given a very
01:26:24very optimistic spin on these discussions and there's a lot of rumor and speculation all across the media and
01:26:34by the way social media as well that the united states and israel are some on some kind of collision course
01:26:41something which i'm not necessarily convinced about but anyway i'm going to talk about all of those other
01:26:50topics in my next program an important day in the conflict in ukraine the russians in my opinion
01:27:01unequivocally came out on top the europeans in a weaker position than perhaps they expected
01:27:12the americans perhaps still divided about what exactly it is that they intend to do but to reiterate
01:27:23again the underlying reality is that neither side has shifted its position at all so far
01:27:35it is the military events that are driving
01:27:41events and putin has just given us a hint with his use of the word war
01:27:49that we might be looking at a significant escalation of those going forward well that is the end of my
01:27:58program today let me remind you again that you can find all our programs on our various platforms
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01:28:41thank you