US President Donald Trump is en route to Saudi Arabia for what the White House is describing as a "historic" tour of the Middle East. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics. He says that the US seems to be undergoing a "shift in foreign policy whereby the US is not walking away from Israel" but is "a little more oriented towards US relationships with the Gulf Arab monarchies and less oriented around Israel".
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00:00This is apropos. The trip is set to mix urgent diplomacy on Gaza and Iran with huge business
00:09deals. Donald Trump is en route to Saudi Arabia for what he's describing as a historic tour of
00:15the Middle East. While the most pressing regional challenges concern countries that are not on the
00:20itinerary, the US president will be focusing his attention on three oil-rich Gulf nations that are
00:26home to existing or planned Trump-branded real estate projects, as Charlotte Lamb reports.
00:34American and Saudi flags line the streets of Riyadh ahead of President Donald Trump's visit,
00:39the first stop of a Gulf tour that will also take him to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
00:46His visit is drawing several Wall Street and Silicon Valley titans to the capital,
00:50with a US-Saudi investment forum announced just days ago set to take place Tuesday.
00:55On the ground, reactions were mixed awaiting the president's arrival.
01:01I'm not optimistic about this visit or its outcomes.
01:06We expect significant political and economic agreements that will have a positive impact
01:11on Riyadh and the surrounding countries.
01:15In many ways, the tour is a replay. In 2017, Trump made Saudi Arabia his first foreign trip
01:22during his inaugural term. He was welcomed with a lavish ceremony and announcements of billions of
01:28dollars in investments. The energy-rich nations have all built personal ties with the president,
01:34but this tour comes as sweeping tariffs disrupt global trade. And some economists say that Trump
01:40might need his Gulf counterparts more than they need him.
01:43The region has also invested heavily in AI infrastructure, with the goal of becoming
01:49global hubs for the technology. US Gulf relations have improved since Trump returned to office,
01:55and leaders in the Arab Gulf states are expected to be eyeing up the future of American semiconductor
02:01exports.
02:02More, we're joined now by Giorgio Caffiero, CEO of the Washington-based geopolitical risk
02:08consulting firm, Gulf State Analytics, also a professor at Georgetown University.
02:14Thanks so much for being with us on the program this evening. So let's talk about this visit then to
02:20the Middle East. What is Donald Trump's priority here? He's reportedly told advisors he wants to announce
02:25his deals worth more than $1 trillion.
02:30Yeah, great to be on your program. So I think obviously with so many crises going on in the Middle East
02:37and also other parts of the world, Trump is going to be talking to the Gulf Arab leaders about ways to wind
02:44down these conflicts. He is visiting three countries, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, that have been
02:51important interlocutors and diplomatic bridges between different states in the region, also
02:57between the United States and Russia. So I think he's going to try to see to it that there is some
03:02progress, diplomatically speaking, when it comes to the situation in Ukraine, Red Sea security situation
03:10in post-Assad Syria, situation in Gaza and Lebanon. I'm sure he'll be talking about the American-Iranian
03:17nuclear talks that got started last month in Muscat. And at the same time, we know that what's very
03:25important to Trump's Make America Great Again agenda is obviously growing the U.S. economy. We have many
03:32economic issues here in the U.S., and I think it's important for Trump to come back from the Gulf,
03:37having secured huge investment deals with these Gulf Arab states so that he can have a real big win
03:45early on in his presidency. So really sort of the diplomatic issues, the security issues,
03:52as well as economic commercial gains. These are the main motivations that Trump has for going
03:58to the Gulf right now. And just ahead of the visit, of course, as we've been reporting, Hamas has released
04:04the Israeli-American hostage, Edan Alexander. How significant do you think it is that these talks
04:09to release this 21-year-old appear to have taken place without much, or if any rather,
04:16involvement from Israel? Trump, of course, isn't going to be visiting Israel during this trip.
04:23A great point that you make, and I think it sort of fits into the wider context whereby we have seen
04:30on numerous files, including but not limited to Gaza, the Trump administration appears to be
04:37sidelining Israel a little bit. And obviously the recent ceasefire with the Houthis was a case in
04:45point. The Trump administration's decision to begin nuclear talks with the Iranians, and also there is
04:52a possibility of the Trump administration lifting sanctions on Syria. These are all examples of the
04:58Trump administration sidelining Israel and not catering to the demands of Netanyahu.
05:05I think the Trump administration is focused on trying to wind down conflicts in the Middle East,
05:12or at least not getting the US bogged down in those conflicts. The Gulf Arab states seem to be helping the
05:18Trump administration toward that end. Meanwhile, it's very obvious that Netanyahu and the Israeli
05:25government is doing everything it can to try to get the US into a war with Iran. And so I think what we
05:31might be seeing is a shift in the US foreign policy, whereby the US is not walking away from Israel, but
05:39conducting a foreign policy that's a little more oriented toward US relationships with the Gulf Arab
05:45monarchies and less oriented around Israel.
05:48And that's really leaving Israel more isolated than ever, isn't it? Would you go as far as to say that
05:55there appears to be a rift between Trump and Netanyahu, as some media commentators have suggested?
06:02I think that seems fair to say. I think that Trump wants to make it very clear that he is in the
06:11driver's seat when it comes to US foreign policy. In various ways, he has indicated that the fact that
06:18he recognizes that there is a distinction to make between US national interests and Israel's national
06:25interests. And every country is responsible for pursuing their own national interests. When it came
06:33to the issue of engaging the Iranians on the nuclear file, Israel has determined that it's in Israel's
06:41interest for the US to not engage the Iranians diplomatically. The Trump team had a different
06:47assessment, or at least Trump and some members of his administration had a different assessment.
06:53They're choosing to move forward. And at the end of the day, Israel can't really do anything about
07:00this. If the Trump administration wants to make moves that Israel does not welcome, Israel does not
07:06have another country that it can turn to to replace the US as a top ally. I think it seems that Trump has
07:14an understanding of where the leverage exists and that the US has a leverage over Israel, not vice versa.
07:23And how focused do you think he currently is on brokering a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia?
07:34Well, this is a good question. I think it's pretty clear to everybody that after the war in Gaza, the Saudis are
07:44further away from being in any position whereby they would normalize with Israel. I don't think on
07:52this trip Saudi-Israeli normalization is on the table. The Saudis have been crystal clear about what
08:00conditions would need to change in order for Riyadh to join the Abraham Accords. The types of changes that
08:07would have to take place on Israel are ones that we simply could not imagine, especially with the current
08:13leadership in Israel. So I really do not see any other Gulf Arab state, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait,
08:21Oman, none of the GCC states that are not currently in the Abraham Accords. I don't think we'll be seeing
08:27them joining the normalization camp anytime soon. And I think the Trump administration understands that.
08:33However, I do think we can say that the Trump administration is probably going to be putting
08:39some energy into trying to cajole Syria and Lebanon into the Israeli normalization camp.
08:47Perhaps that's a topic for another discussion, but I think that's where the White House's
08:52normalization efforts are going to be directed throughout the remainder of this year,
08:57not when it comes to Saudi Arabia and Israel.
08:59And he has commented, though, before he left, he seemed confident that he would be able to
09:04convince Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. You don't think that's something that's likely
09:10to happen, as you say. None of the Arab states that normalized relations with Israel,
09:15are you surprised in any way that none of them have rode back from that at all since the start of the war in Gaza?
09:21Well, especially in the case of the UAE, I am not surprised. Now, there's no doubt that the situation
09:31in Gaza has put countries such as the UAE and the Kingdom of Bahrain in difficult positions, requiring
09:38them to strike some very delicate balancing acts. But especially when it comes to the UAE, we need to keep in
09:44mind that Abu Dhabi likes to be a trendsetter in the region and the UAE's leadership is very decisive.
09:53And I think for Abu Dhabi to abrogate the Abraham Accords would be a real blow to the image of the UAE
10:00as an influential Arab state that sets trends on a regional and global level. So it has not
10:08surprised me so much that the UAE has not removed itself from the Israeli normalization camp. But I
10:16think we can also note, though, that some of these Arab states that have normalized diplomatic relations
10:22with Israel have been speaking out quite vocally against Israel's conduct. And I think they have
10:30tried to make their engagement with the Israelis a little bit more low profile to avoid unnecessary
10:37controversy at a time in which Israel's aggression against Gaza, Syria, Lebanon has resulted in so much
10:47emotion in the Arab world and so much anger in Arab societies.
10:53And George, do you believe that this trip to the Middle East is going to result in any kind of
10:57breakthrough when it comes to the war in Gaza, Hamas releasing that Israeli-American hostage as a
11:03goodwill gesture to the administration as the militant group put it?
11:09Well, the leadership in all of the GCC countries really wants to see the Trump administration
11:15use all the leverage that it has over Israel to bring Israel and Hamas into a new ceasefire
11:23agreement. I have no doubt that when Trump is in Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi, he will be having some
11:30very serious conversations with officials in those three capitals about this exact issue.
11:35And they are going to try to do everything they can to convince Trump that a ceasefire in Gaza
11:42is necessary not only for the sake of Palestinians in Gaza, but also for the sake of the region at large.
11:50If we're going to see a breakthrough in terms of some announcements of a new ceasefire in Gaza,
11:56that remains to be seen. But I can tell you that all of the Gulf Arab officials
12:01are certainly doing everything they can to try to convince Trump that this is necessary.
12:06Georgie, we'll have to leave it there for now. Thanks so much for being with us on the programme.
12:10That is Giorgio Caffiero, CEO of the geopolitical risk consulting firm, Gulf State Analytics.