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00:00Now Arab leaders are gathering in Saudi Arabia today to hammer out how to collectively counter
00:05President Donald Trump's plan for U.S. control of Gaza and the expulsion of its inhabitants.
00:10Leaders in the Arab world have criticized Trump's plans to empty the Strip and create a so-called
00:16Levantine Riviera, but now they want to agree on a formulated response. And for more on this,
00:21I can bring in Scott Lucas, Professor of U.S. and International Politics at the Clinton Institute
00:27at the University College Dublin. Good morning, Scott, and thank you for joining us at this
00:31meeting in Riyadh. Is there a sense of panic among Arab leaders after Donald Trump's announcement?
00:39There's a sense of deep concern, not just amongst Arab leaders, but I think amongst
00:44almost everyone in the region, not just about Trump's proposal for ethnic cleansing of Gaza,
00:50but about the imminent end of phase one of the ceasefire agreement. Because, of course,
00:57at the end of phase one, you need to have a phase two. So while the Arab leaders are preparing for
01:03this March 4 summit, which will be about reconstruction of Gaza, while its residents
01:10remain there and are not transferred, to get that reconstruction, you've got to get agreement on a
01:16phase two in which Israel withdraws its forces from the Strip, and you get some type of Palestinian
01:24governance. Now, will that governance be by Hamas? Will it be by other Palestinian groups? Will it be
01:30a technocratic administration? All of that is very, very much up in the air, because, of course,
01:36I think the chances are slim that the Netanyahu government, under pressure from the hard right,
01:42will even agree to a phase two at this point, unless Hamas effectively says it's going to
01:49disappear, which, of course, the group will not do. Now, Trump has said that the likes of Jordan
01:55and Egypt will agree to the, quote, deal. Now, what sort of leverage can Trump exert on Arab
02:01countries, and are some a little bit more protected from leverage than others?
02:06Well, I mean, Trump, as always, has gone to the fact that he can sanction. You know,
02:10I can sanction this, I can sanction that. And certainly, you know, there is trade between Egypt
02:15and Jordan with the United States. Even more significantly, of course, would be trade between
02:21the Gulf states and the U.S., including, of course, the U.S. provision of military trade.
02:29But at this point, Trump hasn't really followed up on that threat to impose sanctions. I think what
02:35you're going to see from Trump is not going to be direct assaults on Jordan and on Egypt.
02:39I think what you're going to see is increased Trump administration support of Israel.
02:43And I think that's not only effectively giving a blank check for renewed Israeli military attacks
02:48in Gaza. I think it's going to be for expanded, not just Israeli attacks in the West Bank,
02:54but really expanded Israeli occupation in the West Bank, including an expansion of the
03:00settlements. That's the front I would be watching right now in terms of where Israel tries to take
03:05advantage of Trump's position. And just on that point, Trump's plan, obviously it's got a lot of
03:14support from Benjamin Netanyahu and far right elements in his government. But what about across
03:20the political spectrum in Israel and particularly what happens if Netanyahu's government falls,
03:26as it well might in the next year or two? Would a new government take Trump up on the offer?
03:33We're now in the key, I think, aspect of this. As important as the U.S. is and as loud as Trump is,
03:39it's this question of what has been happening in Israel domestically throughout the period since
03:45the Hamas attacks on October 7th and then Israel's mass killing. Benjamin Netanyahu is caught between
03:51the hard right ministers, the finance minister, Mr. Smotrych, who's still in government,
03:57the national security minister, Mr. Ben-Havir, who has left but is still supporting,
04:02who have said, we don't want to face it. And in fact, we want Gazans to voluntarily leave the
04:07strip and we want a military government. Netanyahu's caught between that demand and between
04:13many Israelis, including families of the hostages, who say the priority is to get the remaining 70
04:19to 75 hostages back and not to renew military attacks. Meanwhile, Netanyahu faces that prospect
04:25you've alluded to. If there is a lasting ceasefire, his political future is uncertain
04:31with elections and his legal future is uncertain with, I think, renewed impetus for the bribery
04:38trial that he is facing. Now, will Arab leaders be also concerned about a domestic backlash from
04:46their own populations if they were seen to capitulate and be viewed as selling out the
04:51people of Gaza if they did do a deal with Trump? I think that domestic factor is there. And here,
04:57I'm going to have to pull you back. The idea that Trump has a thought out proposal on ethnic
05:03cleansing is just ridiculous. This isn't a thought out proposal. It's his honest wish to make money
05:09out of Gaza backed up by a US professor who said, let's start from scratch and remove everything,
05:15including the rubble and the people. That's all you've got there. So there's no real plan
05:19that the Americans have. Arab leaders, however, have to go back when they face domestic populations
05:26and face something, I think, more significant, which is, will they go back to normalizing
05:33relations with Israel? That's where we were before October 2023. That's where we had some
05:40states who had established relations with Israel, others behind the scenes, like Saudi Arabia,
05:44who were maneuvering for closer links. That doesn't happen now. No matter how much Trump
05:51puts on pressure, no matter how much he schemes, you do not get normalization of Israel's relations
05:58with Gulf states until you get a lasting ceasefire in Gaza. That's been made clear by the Saudis.
06:03It's been made clear by other Gulf states, even if the Trump folks won't publicly accept.
06:08And with regard to Europe, where is Europe in all this? Because we've seen in the last week
06:13that probably the era of military cooperation between the United States and Europe is perhaps
06:22on its last legs. Is there a possibility that we've already seen the European countries have
06:27expressed discontent with these comments by Trump? Is there a possibility that there might begin to
06:33become a little bit of a cleavage between Europe and Washington on Israel and the Middle East itself?
06:40Well, I mean, there's already a bit of distance between some EU members and the United States
06:45over, you know, the Israeli open-ended attacks in Gaza until they were suspended because of the
06:51ceasefire. Where I am in Ireland, for example, that's one of the European countries that has
06:56come out forcefully for the two-state solution and recognition of Palestine. It has criticized
07:02Israel over the mass killings. But I think the broader issue is this, and I'm going to say this
07:08with reference to what is happening over Ukraine and Russia. For the first time since 1941,
07:14there is no alliance between a US government and European countries. The Trump administration has
07:20ended that alliance. I don't think it's going to have that much effect on the Middle East at this
07:26point, simply because European countries have got to give emergency attention to support Ukraine
07:32and of their security against Russia's three-year invasion. And while that issue is paramount,
07:38I think the Europeans are going to be on the sideline regarding Middle East issues.
07:41Thank you very much for that, Scott Lucas, Professor of US and
07:44International Politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin.