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00:00A full Tuesday slate around Major League Baseball.
00:03That means 15 games on the diamond.
00:06All 30 MLB clubs in action.
00:09And a really compelling game, DRS, tonight in Southern California
00:13between divisional foes and in-state rivals.
00:16The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants
00:19for most of the first three and a half weeks or so of this MLB campaign.
00:25Best record in the NL West, best record in all of the bigs.
00:28That was the San Diego Padres.
00:30Still not bad, 17 and 11.
00:33But last week, DRS, not overly kind to San Diego.
00:36They were on the road.
00:37They have dropped seven of their last 10.
00:39But we thought returning home over the weekend, they'd be good.
00:43Hosting the Rays, the Padres sensational inside Petco Park.
00:47They were swept by Tampa.
00:50San Diego remains in San Diego.
00:52And the top team now in the NL West, the San Francisco Giants, 19 and 10.
00:57Looking to join the New York Mets in the 20-win club today against Nick Pavetta and the Padres.
01:04But Pavetta and the Padres, not booked as the home favorite.
01:09It's Logan Webb and the Giants on the road as an ever-so-slight favorite as well.
01:14Keep an eye on that total.
01:15Six and a half, DRS.
01:16We are expecting a great pitching duel between Webb and the man you call pitching Pavetta.
01:21Are we going to see such a thing tonight in Southern California?
01:25I mean, why not?
01:26You take a look at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
01:27You open this price point around that minus 124 number.
01:30It's dipped a little bit live now to minus 120.
01:32Other outlets as high as minus 130.
01:34But you take a look at that total, which opened up at six and a half, which is extremely low.
01:38And still sitting at six and a half across the market.
01:40Now, when you take a look at the two pitchers on the mound, here's the reason why.
01:43It's a great pitcher's ballpark.
01:44Yes, but Logan Webb on the card today, number one overall in XFIP at a 2.12, coupled with an ERA of 1.98.
01:51And you take a look and say, Donnie, you've really preached how good Nick Pavetta has been.
01:55He's been great.
01:5530 innings pitched so far this season.
01:57How about a 1-2-0 ERA backed up with a 3.39 XFIP number?
02:01So prices on the total make sense.
02:04But it is low.
02:05Three for one side.
02:06You automatically get that.
02:07You had an extra innings at two to two.
02:08You probably get it as well.
02:09So sometimes when you're factoring in that, if you're contrarian, you would just go to the overall.
02:13Two good pitchers, eventually it's going to line up.
02:15And maybe one or two gets knocked around a little bit, which is okay, the way to handicap it.
02:19But for me, if I'm looking at an under in this game, Ben, probably not coming from the long distance, which means, yes, Logan Webb can go eight innings.
02:25Pavetta can go seven innings.
02:27It could be one to nothing and you win it going away.
02:29But nobody likes to lose the total blown up when the pitchers aren't in the game or you have that backboard as extra innings.
02:35You go to extra innings in a seven-point number that you need, or seven-point run number.
02:39And you say it's one to one.
02:41Oh, you should easily get it.
02:42Not necessarily.
02:42Oh, look at that.
02:43One run scored here.
02:44One run scored there.
02:45Top of the 11th inning.
02:46It's two to two.
02:46And then you're in danger with one more run on each side and you lose it.
02:50First five innings under, probably the best look because both of these lineups can hit.
02:53But these two pitchers in that environment, I'm not expecting a ton of runs.
02:56And over the first five innings, I expect the best out of these two pitchers.
03:01DRS, we talked about the San Diego Padres just a couple of weeks ago.
03:05And that historic start at home against the Chicago Cubs.
03:0811 straight home victories.
03:10Lost their first game.
03:11Bounced back with a win.
03:1212-1 at home.
03:1415-4 overall before they started on a road stand.
03:19They lost now seven of their last nine, including the home sweep this weekend at the hands of the Rays.
03:25They're 17-11.
03:27The San Francisco Giants have won five of their last seven.
03:30Again, 19-10.
03:31Best record in the NL West.
03:33But everybody in the National League, everybody in MLB looking up at the New York Mets.
03:38The first team to get to 20 wins in the bigs this year.
03:41Scoring 19 runs yesterday to split their four-game extended weekend set against the Washington Nationals.
03:48The Mets return home to Citi Field to host the Arizona Diamondbacks.
03:53New York, this will be their first series of two against the D-backs in their next three sets.
03:59A road weekend in St. Louis before heading out to the desert.
04:03This week, though, the New York Mets at home.
04:06Minus 142 as they welcome in the D-backs to flushing.
04:10Total at eight and a half.
04:11What do you like today between the Diamondbacks and the Amazons?
04:14Yeah, you probably would figure that New York should be the favorite here.
04:17But take a look at the pitching matchup here as we go.
04:19Because Eduardo Rodriguez for Arizona will be on the mound.
04:21On 28 and two-thirds innings pitched this season, Ben, the ERA a little bit high, 4.40.
04:26But the analytical numbers, like the expected ERA, 2.86.
04:29The XFIP number, Elite at 2.84, which means he's getting just a little bit unlucky.
04:34You look at that lineup today as it probably will present itself going up against left-handed pitching this year.
04:39Hasn't been all that great.
04:40Lindor has struggled.
04:41You know, Juan Soto does have a high weighted on-base percentage, but not a lot of ISO power numbers.
04:45Alonzo, Nimmo, and Acuna here in the lineup have higher ISO power numbers.
04:49Everybody else, a little bit less.
04:51So maybe the better pitcher on the mound could be for Arizona.
04:53Even though he said that David Peterson has been great this season.
04:56You look at the ISO power number against, 103, weighted on-base percentage, average at 3.22.
05:00Lefty on lefty, he's been tremendous here.
05:02Righties, hasn't given up a lot of power, but a little bit slightly high weighted on-base percentage.
05:07But look at his season so far.
05:0927 to the third innings pitched at 3.29 ERA, coupled with a 2.88 XFIP number.
05:14Here's the temperatures in New York today.
05:16Close to 70 degrees.
05:17How about double digits blowing up to dead center field?
05:20It's a shame that we have two pitchers with low XFIP numbers because that's a perfect recipe with these two ball clubs as hot as they are at the plate to do some damage.
05:28I just don't know if I can get there.
05:29So for me, if I think it's more of a coin flip, probably leaning towards the underdogs in the Diamondbacks today, but not a clear path to who I love at the plate.
05:36Yeah, line working a little bit to the Mets, minus 138 there, now minus 142.
05:43Again, the Mets have been great.
05:45They are the first team to get to 20 wins in MLB.
05:49The Dodgers have won three straight.
05:51They entered Saturday on a three-game slide.
05:54They've responded with three consecutive wins, including the series opener last night, DRS, in Los Angeles against the Marlins.
06:00The Dodgers opened up a 5-0 lead after five frames.
06:04The Marlins responded to force extras.
06:07They took an early lead in the top of the 10th.
06:10It was a Tommy Edmond 2-RBI single that scored both Andy Pajes and Michael Conforto.
06:15The Dodgers walking it off in 10 innings, 7-6 over the Fish.
06:20Nearly a $2 favorite at home today against Sandy Alcantara and Miami.
06:25Miami, will the Dodgers make good on that hefty price?
06:28No starter listed, though, DRS on FanDuel.
06:31Yeah, take a look at Sauer, who last year only had 84 batters he faced, and this year he's only faced six.
06:37So maybe an opener for the Dodgers tonight, which is kind of interesting, just depending on how they feel about going about it.
06:41But the one thing you do look at is say, well, maybe the Marlins can get to Sauer.
06:45They had a lot of excitement last night in shooting a grand slam for the Marlins that tied that game up, but the Dodgers end up prevailing.
06:50You usually would say to yourself, look, I'm just going to back Sandy Alcantara in this game.
06:53Should be easy, 23 and a third innings pitch, Ben.
06:56A 6.56 ERA, but a 4.23 XFIP number, which is still dangerous territory when you get into it tonight.
07:03You look at the total in this game, and that's probably the better way to go.
07:06You're not getting a full blast great Dodgers starting pitcher in this game, and who knows how long he lasts.
07:10That eight and a half probably could be in trouble tonight, really.
07:14Looks like Matt Sauer, the opener for Dave Roberts.
07:17More MLB next.
07:19Live right here on this Tuesday on the early line on Sports Grid.
07:23All around MLB, 15 games, 30 clubs, a full Tuesday slate.
07:28Divisional foes continue to face off against one another today in Camden Yards.
07:34The Orioles, DRS, and the Yankees getting ready for the second game of this midweek set.
07:39The Yanks and Carlos Rodon, a minus 148 favorite on this Tuesday evening.
07:44Total, nine and a half. Again, some pretty nice weather here on the East Coast early in the week.
07:50Baltimore winning yesterday 4-3 in the opening game of this set.
07:55Can the Yankees respond to even things up after two games in Baltimore?
08:00Yeah, tough scene for Baltimore tonight. Carlos Rodon's going to be on the mound.
08:03Now, last year, a lot of struggling there. People upset. Makes a lot of money. Should be better.
08:07This year has corrected a lot of his ways so far.
08:09Only 144 batters face, but an ISO against of 138 and a weighted-on-base percentage of 259.
08:15But the key ingredient is to right-handed batters, Ben.
08:17112 batters he's faced from the right side of 117 ISO.
08:20Very good. And a clean weighted-on-base percentage of 241.
08:24How about a K rate to right-handed batters? Almost 34%.
08:27You take a look at his seasonal statistics.
08:2936 innings pitched, a 350 ERA, and a 334 XFIP number.
08:33This is the pitcher that the Yankees expected when they acquired him via free agency.
08:37Now, let's take a look at the Baltimore lineup tonight.
08:40The guys that will be in there, Cedric Mullins is a lefty.
08:42He's hit left-handed pitching very well.
08:44You take a look at Ramon Urias. Also, he's hit left-hand pitching well.
08:48Everybody else, atrocious.
08:50And now we're going to see Kyle Gibson on the mound for the first time this season
08:53to see how that prevails.
08:55Grisham, Judge, and Rice, all higher numbers.
08:57So, when we look at the side, it should be the Yankees as a favorite.
09:00I don't know how many runs we're going to get out of Baltimore tonight,
09:03even though 81-degree temperatures with a double-digit wind blowing out to dead center field.
09:09Maybe we take a look at some of those home-run shots for the New York Yankees tonight.
09:13But Rodon is the better pitcher tonight.
09:15I do think the Yankees win.
09:17Yeah, that's why their favorite DRS, the odds, certainly backing that up.
09:21Yesterday, Ryan O'Hearn, a three-run shot that put Baltimore up for zip.
09:25The Yankees did rally to make things interesting.
09:27Late, the O's holding on for a victory.
09:30Again, when you look at the standings around the American League East,
09:34Baltimore just 11-17 despite the win in the opening game of the set.
09:39Yesterday, the Yankees still the best record in that division, 17-12.
09:43Aaron Judge, two more base knocks yesterday, batting 4-0-5 this year.
09:48A home run in the doubleheader against the Blue Jays on Sunday,
09:51but just one long ball in his last 11 games.
09:55They do call this day Dinger Tuesday, or at least they did.
09:59From that American League East rivalry to another one within the division tonight in Toronto.
10:05The Red Sox and the Blue Jays squaring off in the sixth.
10:09Garrett Crochet gets the nod for Boston.
10:12The Red Sox, because of it, with their ace on the bump.
10:15A favorite in Toronto.
10:16Total stands at 7-1⁄2.
10:18What do you like today between the Jays and the Red Sox?
10:21It's a shame we don't have this game in Boston, right?
10:23Because you would have had 18-mile-an-hour winds blowing out the right field,
10:26which really would set up some left-handed batters that I like tonight,
10:29which we'll get to in just a moment.
10:30But Crochet's been great.
10:31Six starts this year, 37 innings pitched, a 195 ERA, and an XFIP number of 3.15.
10:38You'll take that each and every time.
10:39You take a look at Crochet on the season.
10:40Look at the ISO against, Ben.
10:420-38.
10:43Fantastic.
10:43Weighted on base percentage.
10:442-28.
10:45Fantastic.
10:46It's a K-rate combined between lefty and righty batters, 30%,
10:49which includes a 40% strikeout rate to left-handed batters,
10:53completely neutralizing them.
10:55But I want to focus on the Boston batters,
10:56because I don't know if the roof's going to be open or not,
10:59but it's a dome.
11:00Wind's not really going to creep into there all that much and help out.
11:02But that's okay.
11:03If we look at Bowdoin Francis on the mound,
11:0564 left-handed batters he's faced this year, Ben.
11:07A .309 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of .363 against.
11:11That is the danger zone.
11:13So you take a look at some of the left-handed batters that have done well
11:15against right-handed pitching for those Red Sox this year.
11:1894 at-bats for Duran in the leadoff spot.
11:20.366 weighted on base percentage.
11:22Raphael Devers had that terrible start.
11:24Now up to a .208 ISO and a .341 weighted on base percentage
11:27against right-handed pitching.
11:28And then one of my favorite guys in the lineup, Willier Abreu.
11:3190 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
11:32A .266 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of .404.
11:36Yes, Boston is favored to the better team tonight.
11:39But if I'm looking from a player perspective,
11:41those left-handed batters, based on I'm going to focus on a little bit more
11:44about Francis later today, on those splits together,
11:46that's the direction I'm going.
11:48Left-handed bats for Boston should do some damage tonight.
11:51The Blue Jays two games sub .500.
11:53The Red Sox two games above .500.
11:56Boston winning the final two of their weekend set against the Guardians
11:59to win that series.
12:01The Red Sox were 8-10 on April 14th.
12:05Since they have won eight of their last 12,
12:07the Red Sox and the Yankees, the only two teams currently
12:11in the American League East, above .500.
12:14Again, a lot of great baseball on this Tuesday.
12:17We've previewed about five games.
12:19I'm sure DRS will have plenty more on the Moneyline
12:22starting at 11 a.m. Eastern time on SportsGrid Radio.
12:27Yep.