India is preparing with full force to deliver a final blow to terrorism following the dastardly Pahalgam massacre, in which 26 people were gunned down by Pakistan-backed terrorists.
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00:00Unimaginable punishment is coming all eyes on India's next move
00:30What will be India's response?
00:39How will Pakistan react?
00:49Ultimate India-Pakistan scenario map
00:56The War Game with Rahul Kaval
01:03Hello and welcome, the stage is set, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has signalled political
01:09intent India will strike back.
01:13The question as I am certain that is swirling in your mind is what does an Indian response
01:19potentially look like?
01:20We've seen a shallow limited ground covert operation, we've seen a deep air strike, what
01:26comes next?
01:27No one knows for sure.
01:29But every year the Indian army as well as the Pakistani army conduct what are called
01:36War Games which is a simulation of how the two armies and services could operate given
01:44the current state of play.
01:45So what we've done in this special broadcast is put together on the basis of past war games
01:51have been conducted at different strategic think tanks, at the war college for example,
01:57and put together to try and give perspective to audiences watching at this time, what to
02:02expect over the next several days and weeks once the Indian attack begins.
02:08Make no mistake and I want to give you a quick sneak peek of what the Prime Minister said.
02:13India has declared as clearly as possible an Indian response is coming.
02:19What that response could be, how Pakistan might react to that, we'll get into that.
02:23But here is India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
02:26Today, from the soil of Bihar, I say to the whole world, India will identify, track and punish
02:47every terrorist and their backer.
02:56We will pursue them to the ends of the earth.
03:04India's spirit will never be broken by terrorism.
03:10Terrorism will not go unpunished.
03:16Every effort will be made to ensure that justice is done.
03:23The entire nation is firm in this resolve.
03:28Everyone who believes in humanity is with us.
03:35No.
03:45No.
03:47Unatan kyo ko ar isa hamale ki saajis ratre waalo ko unki kalpana se bhi badi saja milegi.
04:05Saja milkar ke rahegi.
04:11Allow me to introduce to you participants in this war game.
04:15So there are two armies that will be operating over the next 45 minutes.
04:21There is the Blue Army, which is India, and then there is the Red Army, which is Pakistan.
04:27Representing the Indian military in the Blue Army is Leftman General Sanjay Kulkarni,
04:32former Chief of Staff 14 Corps, Director General Infantry.
04:35Thank you very much, sir, for joining us.
04:38Representing the Indian Army from an intelligence perspective.
04:44You know, we've got a special guest joining us, Yasho Vardhan Azad.
04:48He's been an IPS officer, has worked in the Intelligence Bureau.
04:52So he will give us the intel perspective on the operation.
04:54Remember, you need solid intelligence from the ground to be able to actually pull off successful operations.
05:00You want to punch, but you want to ensure that the punch lands.
05:02You don't want to punch and then just end up in a situation where you're swinging wildly.
05:06Okay. So for the Red Army, you know, I have requested Major General Sanjay Meston to join us.
05:12He's done this in war game simulations in army circles a long time,
05:18but we requested him to play the role of a Park Army General and very sportingly he agreed.
05:22So thank you very much.
05:22So please don't troll him.
05:24He's just role-playing for this purpose to give you a sense of how a Park military officer general may actually be thinking.
05:32And I'm delighted, as always, to be joined by Tilak Deveshwar.
05:35I think of all the intelligence officers we have in our country,
05:38very few understand Pakistan in quite the way that Tilak Deveshwar does.
05:41So he'll give us a thinking into what's going on in the minds of the ISI.
05:46So let's get started.
05:47And as I said, this is a simulation.
05:50It's not for real, but it will give you a sense of what to expect.
05:54And now remember, the last attack that we had was an airstrike in Balakot.
06:00Before that, we had the URI covert operations by the special forces of the Indian army.
06:08So therefore, this time, it's quite likely that the military force commanders would want to plan a different kind of operation.
06:15This could be anything for this war game.
06:17I've picked a naval attack from the Western Navy command.
06:21Several of our Navy assets deployed in the Arabian Sea in stage one, which is India's first strike,
06:29which could happen at any time.
06:31It could happen tonight.
06:31It could happen tomorrow.
06:33It could happen 10 days from now.
06:34It could also happen a month from now because the military will choose the time and place.
06:38But here, the Indian Western Navy fleet retaliates.
06:42We've chosen, say, the BrahMos missile.
06:44Well, this is the first time.
06:44You had, the reason I'm saying this, you had the army have a go at it.
06:47You had the air force have a go at the Pakis.
06:51Now you've got the Indian Navy saying, we are ready and ready to go.
06:55So you've got BrahMos missiles being launched from Indian Navy assets.
07:00And they're heading towards training camps near Karachi.
07:04Remember, even the 26-11 attack was staged and managed from near Karachi.
07:08So lots of terror safe houses there.
07:11And the attempt really is to catch Pakistani air defenses off guard because you do something different.
07:16You don't do what they expect.
07:17You don't repeat typically what has happened in the past.
07:20You do something different.
07:21But the Pakistanis won't just sit back and allow this play to happen.
07:25Now that they've been struck, as we saw in Balakot, Pakistan will want to respond.
07:31So very naturally, the first response is to get the Park Air Force to scramble its jets around Karachi to try and signal intent.
07:38Remember, Pakistan would not want to dial up the ante initially.
07:42They'll want to try and keep things calm to the extent possible.
07:45Park naval frigids and aircrafts comb the coast.
07:49They don't want to get into a scenario where there's a naval blockade that the Indian Navy is able to impose.
07:54You've got the Park fighter squadrons combating air patrol.
07:58And that's essentially just the first response.
08:01So remember, there are seven stages in this war game.
08:03What you've seen really so far is just one potential opening gambit by the Indian Armed Forces, this time through the Navy.
08:12Let me get General Khulkarni to try and explain to our viewers the probability in your sense of why we may pick an option different from what the Pakistanis have seen.
08:23Army, Air Force, they've seen try something different completely this time around, sir.
08:27See, it has to be different.
08:29There are no options because the surprise is not there.
08:33Unlike earlier times when Pakistan never expected a Balakot strike.
08:38Pakistan never expected a surgical strike.
08:40So you have a response which has to be totally different but in a manner that the aim is achieved.
08:48It's not just to go into war because the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without a fight.
08:55And as far as possible, if you could do that, there's nothing more than that.
08:59So the first stage, a naval blockade, not necessarily a very huge collateral damage is being done.
09:05But yes, a naval blockade, a Karachi port, like what it was done in 1971, something more similar with long-range missiles.
09:15You have BrahMos with you.
09:16You have destroyers with you.
09:18You'll be able to put a total blockade of the naval.
09:22As a result of which, you would find they will obviously react.
09:26Pakistanis will react.
09:27But something which will be totally different.
09:29General Mestan here is playing the role of a Pak Army general.
09:33They're also expecting something different this time.
09:35They know that the chances of a parallel, shallow incursion or an airstrike is limited.
09:40So they're also looking out for something different.
09:42What would you be expecting in Pakistan, sir?
09:45Rahul, absolutely.
09:47Pakistan definitely would be expecting something different.
09:51Firstly, the political resolve, which has been stated by the Prime Minister of India.
09:57And also, you know, the INS Mysore doing a lot of patrolling and also firing in the Arabian Sea itself.
10:04That gives an indication that there is going to be something different.
10:07But one thing has not happened so far.
10:09The Indian Armed Forces has not been seen mobilizing.
10:13So therefore, the Pakistan now would start feeling, yes, something is possible.
10:19So they are on the alert and rather they will be prepared for anything.
10:24And therefore, as preventive actions, they would have moved a lot of troops on the line of control.
10:29Because since the hype is more towards POK, so their fear and threat is that probably, you know, the Indian Army would like to retake POK.
10:40Okay.
10:41So they're expecting a surge into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
10:46Let me come very quickly to stage two.
10:48Because remember, the Prime Minister said this will be unprecedented, it will be unimaginable.
10:53So the Indian Army really is unlikely to stay content just with this naval attack around Karachi on safe houses.
11:04So in stage two, India then launches massive cyber operations.
11:08An attempt is made to knock out the power grid of Pakistan.
11:12You know, an attempt is made to disrupt the signals of the Park Railway and to jam to the extent possible Pakistan's military satellite communications.
11:23That's likely what, because it's not just conventional weapon systems.
11:27You're also using your cyber offensive capabilities, which India mobilizes in stage two.
11:33And obviously, as we saw with what happened the next day after the Malakot strikes, Pakistan wants to respond.
11:39They're a professional army, not as strong as the Indian Army, but an army that would like to believe they hold the country together.
11:46They're going to strike back.
11:47So in stage two, Park hackers then try and deface government websites.
11:51And that's not really where we have the best of security, so they can get through cyber incursions into Indian banking systems.
11:58India faces some ATM outages.
12:01And Pakistan goes to China and oil producing countries to highlight what India is doing and trying to create international opinion against Indian actions.
12:10And remember, as I said, if you've just tuned in, this is not happening for real.
12:13We're just trying to give you a sense of what may happen when an Indian offensive begins.
12:19What to expect, so we've all got a chance to process this.
12:22So everybody's making up his own mind, having his own opinion.
12:26So I thought, let's just try and put this in a military context.
12:29Now I'm going to go across to Yashavarda Nazar, because the big task for RAW, for IB, is to tell General Kulkarni and the Indian Army, the Navy, the Air Force, where exactly to strike.
12:41Catching a Hafiz Saeed or catching a high-value terrorist ordinarily is difficult.
12:46But when there's been a Pahalgam-type attack, all the terrorists, the high-value targets, and now that he said backers will be attacked as well, likely the ISI and the Park Army that was involved in this attack, they've all been moved to new safe houses.
13:01So how does the IB RAW in such a situation provide the armed forces with specific details on where to go and attack?
13:07First of all, three things the intelligence services would do.
13:12First is to give a massive push to the covert actions.
13:17It will get a massive thrust at this particular point of time.
13:21And General Kulkarni knows what we are talking about.
13:25Secondly, we'll be able to almost block all their sites from that particular area.
13:31The cyber warfare, which we sort of generate from this site, would be blocking their power grid, you know, railways.
13:44That is the core sector, what we are talking about.
13:47And third, the latest, the other thing what the intelligence sharing would be with even countries like United States, et cetera,
13:54to get proper latest information about the bases, the terrorist bases, so that the Indian Army or the Air Force gets an exact pinpoint location.
14:05And fourth, lastly, the most important thing is once the NIA has done the investigation,
14:11and we know that it is either the deputy chief of the lead or the chief,
14:15then we go for proper takeout of that particular personage.
14:20But after circulating all these dossiers to the capitals, so that it becomes a kind of a semi-official thing,
14:27like the Americans have been doing, or the Israelis have been doing.
14:30So given this kind of information, the military will be fully aware where to do these strikes and how to manage it.
14:38Tilak Devishwar, from the perspective of the ISI, the DVS ISI,
14:42but if that's the role that you're playing for this war game,
14:45how would they be trying to prevent the damage that they know is coming their way,
14:50that India swings, but swings in the air, misses, that's what the ISI will be trying to ensure this time?
14:57Rahul, as soon as the, in the stage one, when the Brahmo's missiles were fired at Karachi,
15:03Pakistan would pull out all the stops, and instead of waiting for the cyber attack from India,
15:09they would launch their own cyber capabilities, which have been boosted phenomenally by Chinese assistance.
15:15So Pakistan and China working in tandem would hit India through the cyber attacks long before India does anything to the Pakistan infrastructure.
15:29In fact, the critical infrastructure of India, whether there's railways, banking, telecommunication,
15:35would all be hit no sooner had the attack taken place on Karachi.
15:39So they would get off the first shot.
15:41I don't see Pakistan waiting for India to attack and then responding to restore the services.
15:50And even on the naval ship, you know, I'm sure when the tensions have heightened,
15:56Chinese satellites would be patrolling the whole coast, you know,
16:01and would be providing real-time information, intelligence to Pakistan for what exactly is, you know, the Indian Navy doing.
16:10So it will not be very easy for the Indian vessel to shoot off, get off a full Brahmo's missiles on Karachi,
16:17and Pakistan will be just waiting for those further attacks.
16:19Chinese Navy, Air Force, Army will actively support Pakistan in this escalation?
16:27No, not actively support, but certainly through satellite imagery, through intelligence, they will support it.
16:34That even the presence of a Chinese ship, which happens to be in the Indian Ocean, northern Indian Ocean,
16:41will be a dappener as far as India is concerned, will not be able to operate with that kind of freedom,
16:49which you would otherwise, if it is only Pakistan.
16:52Understood.
16:53I want to come to stage 3.
16:54This is India's response now to what Pakistan did,
16:59because remember the Prime Minister has said, this will be unimaginable.
17:02So it's unlikely to stop, unlike Uri, unlike what happened in Balakot,
17:07this is unlikely to stop after the first offensive.
17:09So the scenario that I have chosen is, now, because they have to get something big,
17:14it could be a Dabud Ibrahim, it could be Hafiz Saeed, it could be a Nazar Masood,
17:18it could be Syed Salaudi, whoever, they have to strike something big.
17:21So we send in now, in our attack helicopters, paracommandos of the special forces,
17:26somewhere in the Punjab-Pakistan sector,
17:29they have specific information from the likes of Tilak Deveshwar and the others,
17:32those who are doing the job at the moment, about where to attack.
17:35So they find this terrorist safe house, they go in and they destroy,
17:40this is a bit like the Abbottabad operation,
17:42something as audacious hasn't been mounted by the Indian para-forces.
17:47I know, I have lots of friends in the paras,
17:49they are itching for it, they practice for this all the time,
17:52they are itching and waiting for an opportunity.
17:54But this is also when they are going in at a time of heightened alert.
17:57Unlike Abbottabad, when the US and far more technically superior forces
18:02had the advantage of surprise, here we don't have the advantage of surprise.
18:06That's the problem.
18:08They go in, they mount this operation and then they have to be pulled back.
18:11They have to be extracted.
18:13So a lot like a Hollywood or a Bollywood film,
18:16they have to go in, mount this attack and then be extracted from there.
18:19If India is able to pull this, Pakistan is then angry as angry can be.
18:25They light up the line of control, motards, artillery, heavy firing ensues
18:30from the Pakistani side, a barrage of heavy shelling all across the line of control.
18:36Pakistan bombs forward posts in places like Uri, Poonch
18:40because they are very close to the line of control
18:43and really all the villagers there then get badly affected
18:46because there is a constant barrage of fire.
18:49This really is what stage 3 can potentially look like.
18:52And I just want to tell you that the sequencing can change.
18:56It doesn't necessarily need to be in this sequence.
18:58General Kulkarni, the probability in your sense of being able to pull off
19:04a strike of this nature where you go in, find a high value target.
19:08With this randomly destroying balakot, the compound is no longer enough.
19:12I mean, the expectation is find someone who is the real backer, the mastermind.
19:18You know, what happens is, when you have a cyber, space, communication,
19:22all of it being tagged, being, you know, hacked and being heard well,
19:27you saw what happened in 1999, we could hack into what Busharraf was talking about
19:31and we knew exactly what the next move was to be.
19:34So, until and unless you have, you saw how the Americans knocked off Osama bin Laden,
19:39knowing fully well where he is, and that's the way they insured asset
19:43which the Pakistanis were protecting for a long, long time.
19:46I mean, similarly in this case, when you know along the LOC,
19:49somewhere where these terrorists, their hideouts are there,
19:54or you know specific, 100% information that, yes, they are holed up over here,
19:59and this particular action can easily be done.
20:02But that is to make sure that what, like the Americans did for Osama bin Laden,
20:06and even hacking the communication of Musharraf during Kargil,
20:12was adequate to be able to know what the next move is going to be
20:14and who is doing it, who is orchestrating it.
20:17So, this is very important.
20:18So, I think...
20:19General Messon, they are trying to hide Hafiz, Syed Salahuddin, Hazar Masood,
20:25but it's possible that we have assets somewhere in the region,
20:27and the Indian Army may want to come for them.
20:31Yeah, absolutely right, Rahul.
20:33As regards the Pakistan Army's concern,
20:35firstly, this attack close to outskirts of Punjab by the special forces,
20:41I think the Pakistan would not have appreciated it, reason being,
20:45because they would have realized that the focus is more towards POK,
20:48and everything is proportionate to the mobilization of the Indian Army.
20:52Yes, some holding formations of the Indian Army would have been moved
20:55from Ferozpur, et cetera, or Amritsar ahead,
20:59but they wouldn't have visualized.
21:00So, Pakistan Army definitely would be very, very surprised with this kind of an attack,
21:06and therefore, the response now would be,
21:08firstly, prevent the exfiltration,
21:10so they would like to target the exfiltrating helicopter,
21:15or at least, you know, try to down it,
21:17because it shows them red-faced,
21:20and they would also try to show that we have done a colossal damage,
21:23or another thing, Pakistan would like to reflect that really nothing much has happened,
21:27and they would try to show India as the aggressor in all these cases,
21:31whether it is the naval blockade, or the strike by the Navy,
21:35or even the cyber one, or even this one by the special forces,
21:40they will say,
21:40why India is striking at us,
21:42when we have done nothing,
21:44because they will always look for...
21:46Teelak Deveshwar, your sense of whether Pakistan's air defense can hold up
21:50if an Indian attack helicopters to make an ingress into Pakistan's Punjab mountain attack of this nature,
21:56how confident are you that the Pak Army will be able to prevent that from happening,
22:00or like the Chinese are trying to help Pakistan,
22:03this is where India would need America's help
22:05to immobilize the electronic warfare capabilities,
22:08and the radar systems of the Pakistani Army and Air Force?
22:13Yes.
22:14So, you know, it depends on the kind of resistance that China will be able to provide,
22:19because I find it difficult to accept that the Indian helicopter can come in,
22:27drop the paracommandos,
22:29go back or hover there and come back and pick them up again.
22:32You know, to do it twice, I find that difficult,
22:36even with the U.S. assistance.
22:39So, it's going to be a spin-off, you know,
22:42that whether the Chinese capability to detect a low-flying helicopter twice,
22:48coming in and going out,
22:51is better than the American capability to detect or to warn.
22:57So, this is slightly questionable, as far as I'm concerned,
23:00whether it can be done twice.
23:02But certainly, I think it will have the element of surprise,
23:04because they will not be expecting
23:06that India would actually launch special forces,
23:10not through via the ground which they would expect,
23:13but to come in through a chopper.
23:15But, Yashavarda Nazat,
23:16the key challenge there
23:18is the requirement to go in undetected and to come out safe,
23:22extract your forces safely,
23:24and while the special forces would want to mount an audacious operation
23:30and it will be written about for years to come,
23:32if we can pull it off,
23:33the fact is that it's a very, very risky operation
23:35at a time when the parked forces are on the highest state of alert.
23:39I would certainly advise the military
23:42to do a kind of a feigning off movement,
23:45because physical extraction at this particular point of time
23:48when the Pakistani Air Force is really fully prepared,
23:52we should go in for a different kind of an operation,
23:54which is just across the line
23:55and attacking all the launch packs.
23:58Either it can be a physical
23:59or with a swarm of drones
24:01or with airstrikes,
24:02which could be as deep as Balakot,
24:05when we have precise,
24:07with precision,
24:10proportionate,
24:11and at the right time.
24:13So, that could be a better kind of fear,
24:15though there can be some feigning movements,
24:18which the military can do,
24:20drills with their helicopters,
24:22but not exactly going there.
24:24That I would certainly call
24:26a very, very risky operation.
24:30I want to shift our attention now
24:32to stage four of this attack.
24:34Remember, as I said,
24:36the Prime Minister said
24:36he wishes to crush
24:37the spirit of the terrorists
24:40to an extent
24:41where they can't think of doing
24:42another Uri,
24:44another Pulwama,
24:44another Pahalgam.
24:46So, what then?
24:47And these are not just
24:47your traditional options
24:49like moving in with attack helicopters.
24:51You can have swarm drones
24:53backed and propelled.
24:54This is, of course,
24:55the age of artificial intelligence.
24:57So, you send in your swarm drones,
24:59you mobilize your
25:01armed, unmanned aerial vehicles,
25:03you find terror targets
25:05in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Punjab.
25:07This is relatively safer
25:08because you aren't putting
25:09your boots on the ground.
25:10Special forces
25:10are the most highly trained,
25:12most lethal personnel
25:14we have in the army,
25:15but you don't want to run the risk
25:17of putting them there physically.
25:18Therefore,
25:19you use
25:20your satellite communications,
25:22your jammers
25:23to be able to
25:24immobilize
25:24Parkside defenses,
25:26send in your armed drones,
25:27send in your UAVs
25:29and then
25:30try and do
25:31the same kind of damage.
25:33If this were to happen
25:34and especially
25:34if it turns out
25:35to be successful,
25:36Pakistan again
25:37hopping wild.
25:38They scrambled
25:39that American-made F-16s,
25:41the Chinese-made JF-17s
25:43to engage
25:44these Indian drones.
25:45Maybe some of those drones
25:45come down,
25:46some of them manage
25:47to hit their targets
25:48successfully.
25:49This is also when
25:50they don't just keep it there,
25:51they take it to the maritime domain,
25:53get Park Navy submarines
25:55and remember,
25:56China has helped Pakistan
25:57a lot over the last few years
25:58in building up
25:59its submarine capabilities.
26:00So,
26:00they use those
26:01Park Navy submarines
26:02to try and find something
26:05or at least lurk
26:06in the Arabian Sea.
26:09They also,
26:10you know,
26:11either to signal
26:12or by mistake
26:14fire in this particular
26:15war game
26:16at an Indian frigid
26:17basically as posturing
26:20that if you
26:20come too close
26:21or mess with us
26:22too much,
26:23we will take
26:24one of your ships down.
26:26Warships use
26:26Barak missiles
26:27to intercept
26:28some of the
26:28Pakistani missiles
26:29coming in
26:29so that's when
26:30the seas also
26:31heat up.
26:32That's really
26:32stage 4.
26:34General Kulkarni,
26:35the probability of it
26:36going on
26:37for that long,
26:38the probability
26:39of Pakistan
26:40using these submarines
26:42because China
26:43has really helped them
26:44over there
26:44and the fact
26:45that we can
26:46now unleash
26:47these armed drones
26:48and UAVs
26:49as Ukraine
26:50is doing
26:50against Russia
26:51which is a very
26:51new dimension
26:52which we haven't
26:53seen earlier.
26:53See,
26:54even in the
26:54earlier one
26:55we saw
26:55that when the
26:56insertion,
26:57extrication
26:57of the troop
26:58becomes extremely
26:59difficult
26:59for reasons
27:00because of
27:01the drones
27:03is an alternative.
27:04A UAV
27:04is an alternative
27:05which will
27:06once you have
27:06100% sure
27:08of the targets
27:08then all of
27:09these targets
27:09can be taken
27:10on by the drones
27:11can be taken
27:11on by the UAV
27:12and swarm
27:13of drones
27:14can create
27:14chaos along
27:15the LOC
27:17even deep inside.
27:18So these are
27:18options that are
27:19available
27:20and which should
27:21be thought of
27:21because sometimes
27:23like you rightly
27:24said there are
27:25times when
27:25obviously the enemy
27:27is now prepared
27:28is ready
27:28to receive
27:29or to be able
27:30What's your
27:30understanding
27:31of our
27:32capabilities
27:33in drone
27:34warfare
27:34and our
27:36relatively limited
27:37capabilities
27:38in unmanned
27:39aerial vehicles?
27:39We're building
27:40them up
27:40but we still
27:41have a long
27:42way to go
27:42versus say
27:42the Chinese
27:43and the Chinese
27:43have been
27:44helping the
27:44Pakistanis.
27:45You'll be
27:46surprised,
27:46Rahul.
27:47I've seen it
27:47myself just a
27:48few days back.
27:50The battalions
27:50can make drones
27:51in India.
27:52But how good
27:52are those?
27:53Very good.
27:54Very good.
27:54Insertions
27:55at least about
27:565 kilometers.
27:57I wouldn't say
27:57too much deep
27:58into it but at
27:59least about
27:595 kilometers.
28:00Well,
28:00the kind of
28:01drones that
28:01are manufactured
28:02I would say
28:04industrially
28:05would have
28:06deeper insertions
28:0720 kilometers,
28:0740 kilometers,
28:08UAVs even
28:09far more deeper.
28:10So if you have
28:11all the correct
28:12accurate targets
28:13striking them
28:15with drones
28:16and UAVs
28:17is a better option
28:18than inserting
28:19troops.
28:19General Messon,
28:20we know that
28:21China has a lot
28:21of these UAV
28:23capabilities,
28:23drone capabilities.
28:25To what extent
28:26has it lent
28:26those to Pakistan?
28:27See, Rahul,
28:30to quite an extent
28:31the Pakistan army
28:32on the inventory
28:33has all these
28:34Pakistan equipment
28:35of drones
28:36and UAVs.
28:38And in this
28:38scenario,
28:39what Pakistan
28:40would like to do,
28:41number one is
28:42it would like to
28:43scramble their jets,
28:44F-16s, F-17s
28:45and target the
28:46Indian drones.
28:47And obviously,
28:48in case they can
28:49target,
28:50I think that will
28:50become a big
28:51propaganda issue
28:52look, we have
28:53targeted and
28:54again showing
28:54that the Indians
28:56are the ones
28:56who are escalating
28:57this.
28:58And number two
28:58is, see,
28:59now they have
28:59realized that
29:00Indian side is
29:01escalating with
29:02these three scenarios
29:03and therefore now
29:04they don't have
29:05any options.
29:06They would also
29:06launch a counter
29:08drone strike in
29:09India,
29:10especially in
29:11JNK and now
29:11even they will do
29:13it in maybe Punjab
29:14or even Rajasthan.
29:15How good is
29:15Pakistan's drone
29:16capabilities according
29:17to you?
29:18See, what I feel
29:20is their drones
29:20are fairly capable
29:21and if you have
29:23seen, in entire
29:24Punjab sector,
29:25Pakistani drones
29:26have been fairly
29:26effective,
29:27they have been
29:28But those are
29:28small drones?
29:29No, they are
29:29small drones.
29:30The ones that
29:30the BSF recovers
29:31along the border?
29:32Yeah, very true.
29:32Even the larger
29:33ones which they
29:34have got from
29:35China, the ones
29:36which were even
29:36used by Hamas
29:38in the first
29:40strike they had
29:40done on Israel.
29:42So they have
29:42some inventory of
29:44these drones and
29:44they would like to
29:45use it.
29:46Simultaneously on
29:47the naval front,
29:48what they would
29:48like to do is
29:49obviously they have
29:50activated, now they
29:51would like to
29:52launch some missiles
29:53on the Indian
29:54ships, the Indian
29:55fortilla which is
29:56going around there
29:57and their target
29:58would be one of
29:59the destroyers or
30:00the frigates or
30:01maybe the aircraft
30:02carrier.
30:02Yeah, to take it
30:03down.
30:03Because in this
30:03war game, I
30:04picked a scenario
30:05where they fire to
30:06signal intent,
30:07don't take it
30:08down.
30:08You think they'll
30:08attempt to take
30:09it down?
30:09Yeah, they would
30:10attempt to take
30:10it down because
30:11see, after all
30:12now escalation has
30:13started, everything
30:14is happening, it's
30:16not like a war
30:17scenario, but
30:18everything is
30:18happening.
30:19All intrusions are
30:20happening in
30:20Pakistan, whether it
30:21is now in Punjab
30:22sector, the drones
30:23have now been
30:24launched, before
30:25that the Karachi,
30:26you know, the
30:27terrorist camp has
30:28been launched, is
30:29struck by the
30:30Indian Navy.
30:30so when all this is
30:32happening, obviously
30:33he will have to
30:34take some solid
30:35responses, counter
30:36drone, launch
30:37activities inside
30:38India and maybe
30:39even…
30:40Dilap, Devishwar,
30:41your understanding
30:41at this stage of
30:42the combat of the
30:44Pakistan military
30:45mind, will they
30:46want to de-escalate,
30:47find a way of
30:48ending this,
30:49that it's done,
30:49it's done, it's done,
30:49or will they want
30:51to escalate further
30:52to show,
30:53we don't have
30:54any more.
30:55There are two
30:56things, there is
30:57no way Pakistan
30:58will be on the
30:59back foot, so if
31:00they have the
31:01capability and I
31:01agree, they will
31:03look out to sink
31:04Indian ships, you
31:06know, escalation,
31:07no escalation,
31:08whatever.
31:08But that's a
31:09declaration of war
31:10as it were then, if
31:11you take down the
31:12Indian Navy ship.
31:13They have to give
31:13to their people,
31:14that once you
31:16fire missiles into
31:17their training camps
31:18in Karachi, you
31:20have already crossed
31:21a red line as far
31:22as Pakistan is
31:22concerned.
31:24They are not
31:24going to be
31:25concerned with
31:25niceties anymore.
31:27They are going to
31:28hit back at
31:29your naval
31:30assets, the
31:31Indian naval
31:32assets.
31:32Similarly with
31:33drones, I think
31:34Pakistan also has
31:35Turkish drones,
31:36you know, armed
31:36drones.
31:37So they will use
31:38their own Chinese
31:39and the Turkish
31:40drones, not only
31:41as a counter to
31:42what the Indian
31:43drone swarms, but
31:44also as to take
31:45the battle into
31:45India.
31:46So they will
31:47react in kind
31:48and carry out as
31:51much of damage as
31:51they can to the
31:53extent that whatever
31:54targeting they have
31:55picked up.
31:56So I think the
31:58naval attack will
32:00be very much on
32:01the cards.
32:02Okay, let's now
32:03come to stage
32:04five.
32:05This is the
32:05Indian strike.
32:06Now one option
32:06of course is that
32:08the military
32:08commanders decide
32:09that the
32:09other is no,
32:11that we want to
32:12crush Pakistan's
32:13spirit and will
32:13further and
32:15therefore the
32:16Indian army now
32:17activates what's
32:18called the
32:18cold start
32:19doctrine.
32:20Now the
32:20cold start
32:21doctrine basically
32:22is that, you
32:23know, when we
32:23mobilized our
32:24forces for
32:25Operation
32:25Parakram, it
32:26took so long
32:27to get the
32:28Indian army
32:28ready for war
32:29that by then
32:30we'd already
32:31suffered a lot
32:31of losses and
32:33it took forever
32:33and the element
32:34of surprise was
32:35lost.
32:35So the idea
32:35was can you
32:36reorchestrate,
32:37reengineer your
32:39military paradigm
32:39to be able to
32:41mobilize fast
32:42through your
32:43mechanized infantry,
32:44through your
32:45armored corps,
32:46move in fast,
32:47make a shallow
32:47incursion 15-20
32:48kilometers into
32:49Pakistani soil and
32:51occupy some
32:51territory and the
32:52Pakistan are then
32:53not able to
32:54dislodge you.
32:54So if you can
32:55seize a shallow
32:56strip of park
32:57land, it's
32:59going to
32:59immobilize the
33:00spirit of the
33:01Pakistani
33:02army because
33:02the Indians are
33:03in on your
33:04land.
33:04If this were
33:07to happen,
33:08this is where
33:08it starts to
33:09get really serious
33:10because this is
33:10where Pakistan
33:11then starts to
33:12do nuclear
33:13saber-rattling.
33:15They roll out
33:16their Hath 9
33:17or Nasser
33:18short-range
33:19ballistic missiles.
33:21They have
33:21missile launchers,
33:22activated along
33:23the line of
33:24control and
33:25basically they're
33:27signaling that
33:28you've crossed
33:29the threshold of
33:30their red line
33:31and that they
33:32are willing to
33:32attack and they
33:33put their
33:33launchers out in
33:34public view so
33:35India's electronic
33:37communications or
33:38satellites can
33:40catch them.
33:41You bring them
33:41out, say we
33:42are coming for
33:43you and we
33:44can now take
33:44this into the
33:46nuclear domain.
33:47And remember
33:48some of these
33:48tactical nuclear
33:49missiles that
33:50Pakistan has has
33:51a range of 60-70
33:51kilometers, you
33:52typically attack
33:53in such a
33:53scenario an
33:56Indian military
33:56asset.
33:57You don't attack
33:57a civilian population
33:59because that's
34:00then crazy.
34:00Our military
34:01doctrine says if
34:02that happens then
34:03we just attack
34:04Pakistan so hard
34:05using our own
34:06nuclear weapons
34:07that Pakistan will
34:08cease to exist as
34:09a country and
34:10therefore they're
34:10basically doing
34:11saber-rattling.
34:12General Kulkarni,
34:14this is where
34:14things get really
34:15tricky because
34:16Pakistan and they
34:17keep like to
34:18brandishing their
34:19like to brandish
34:20their nuclear
34:21weapons and try
34:22and put us on
34:23the back foot
34:23using them.
34:24If Pakistan
34:25attempt to use
34:26this tactical
34:27nuclear missile
34:28range of about
34:2960-70 kilometers
34:30that's now
34:31crossed the red
34:33line and now
34:35it's an all-out
34:35thing.
34:36Obviously the
34:37destruction of
34:38Pakistan...
34:38Will they likely
34:39use it you think
34:39or will they
34:40just threaten to
34:40use it?
34:41Say again.
34:42Will they likely
34:42use the tactical
34:43nuclear weapons
34:44or will they
34:45just threaten to
34:46use it?
34:46See, Pakistan
34:47if pushed too
34:48far, I wouldn't...
34:50I think they
34:51would utilize the
34:52tactical nuclear
34:53missiles because
34:53now it's a
34:55question of
34:55survival for
34:56Pakistan because
34:57even if we are
34:57attempting now
34:58it's do or die
34:59situation, what
35:00else can the
35:02enemy country do?
35:03It would use
35:04tactical and if
35:04it uses tactical
35:05for which all
35:06this they've been
35:07avoiding it,
35:08probably then
35:08that's a
35:09destruction of
35:09Pakistan.
35:10General Mahersan,
35:10how soon do you
35:11think Pakistan
35:12brings out their
35:13tactical nuclear
35:14weapons, they
35:14put them out
35:15like in this
35:16scenario so
35:17our satellites
35:18can catch them
35:18but do they
35:19just brandish
35:20them or do
35:20they actually
35:21use them?
35:22Rahul, in
35:23this scenario
35:24Pakistan
35:24immediately would
35:25not like to
35:26display their
35:27Hath 9
35:27oblique national
35:28missiles, why?
35:30This intrusion
35:31what has been
35:31done by IBG
35:33of the Indian
35:34army.
35:35Also explain
35:35to those
35:36watching what
35:36an integrated
35:37battle group
35:37is.
35:38Yeah,
35:38integrated
35:38battle group
35:40is basically
35:40a div level
35:41sized force
35:41where you have
35:42mechanized
35:43oblique armoured
35:44brigades also
35:45grouped along
35:46with it.
35:46You may be
35:47having a
35:47combination of
35:482-1 or
35:491-2.
35:49So that is
35:50what it is.
35:51But a point
35:52to keep in
35:52mind is if
35:53this IBG
35:54action takes
35:55place it has
35:56to move at
35:57least I would
35:58say some
35:58kilometres to
36:00cross the
36:00IB.
36:01That will
36:01give a big
36:02lead and
36:03since something
36:04has already
36:05happened in
36:05the Punjab
36:06sector,
36:07Pakistan army
36:08now would
36:08be deployed
36:09all along
36:10including
36:10on the
36:10Rajasthan
36:11sector.
36:12Their
36:12mechanized
36:13and
36:13mobile
36:14sorry the
36:15armoured
36:15formations
36:15would be
36:16deployed.
36:17So first
36:17and foremost
36:18they would
36:18like to
36:18contain this
36:19intrusion
36:20by the
36:20Indian IBG
36:21and they
36:22would like
36:22to just
36:22contain
36:23and try
36:24to evict
36:24it by
36:25their
36:25reserve
36:25army
36:26formation.
36:26But the
36:27Indian
36:27army
36:27is
36:27practised
36:28so often
36:29going in
36:29successfully.
36:30I agree
36:31they have
36:31practised
36:31but the
36:32first and
36:33foremost
36:33it is
36:33they would
36:34like to
36:34evict it
36:35contain it
36:35and evict
36:36it.
36:36That is
36:37the first
36:37thing.
36:37They have
36:37large number
36:38of formations
36:39there because
36:39Indian army
36:40balance of
36:41the formations
36:41have not
36:42gone in.
36:42It is
36:42just an
36:43IBG
36:43independent
36:44mode.
36:45Next is
36:45let's assume
36:46that the
36:47IBG stays
36:48on and
36:49the Pakistan
36:49army has
36:50not been
36:50successful
36:51to evict
36:52ofly
36:52contain it.
36:53Then in
36:53that case
36:54they will
36:54get out
36:54these
36:55national
36:55missiles
36:56and try
36:56to display
36:57and of
36:58course
36:58they will
36:58do a
36:58lot of
36:59propaganda
36:59value
36:59show to
37:00the world
37:01we have
37:01and now
37:02it is a
37:02psychological
37:04warfare
37:04perception
37:05warfare
37:05will display
37:06all the
37:06missiles
37:06and they
37:07will say
37:07we will
37:08launch a
37:08counterforce
37:09target
37:09on the
37:10Indian
37:10troops
37:11who have
37:11That's the
37:12challenge
37:12from the
37:13perspective
37:13of the
37:13Indian
37:14military
37:14mind
37:14you want
37:15to strike
37:16Pakistan
37:16and yet
37:18keep it
37:18below the
37:19threshold
37:20of a
37:20nuclear
37:21response
37:21because they
37:23would like
37:23to bring
37:23out their
37:24nuclear
37:24weapons
37:24very quickly
37:25or at
37:25least
37:25brandish
37:25them in
37:26public
37:26view
37:26to
37:27unsettle
37:28our
37:28military
37:28planners
37:29how do
37:30you think
37:30we should
37:30try and
37:30achieve
37:30that?
37:32I think
37:32the first
37:33most important
37:34thing we should
37:34keep in
37:35mind will
37:35be our
37:36main target
37:37during this
37:37entire
37:38escalation
37:39I agree
37:40that Pakistan
37:41will react
37:42almost on
37:42all fronts
37:43because it's
37:44a small
37:44country and
37:45it's a fight
37:46for survival
37:46but remember
37:47why are we
37:49going there
37:49the intelligence
37:50will always
37:51advise as
37:52our main
37:52target should
37:53be the
37:53high value
37:54targets that
37:55is either
37:56Hafiz
37:57Saeed or
37:57somebody and
37:58once you
37:59during this
38:00IBG operation
38:01which is
38:02taking place
38:02if you are
38:03able to
38:04take out
38:05either the
38:05let or the
38:06deputy let
38:07we can
38:07immediately stop
38:08and say our
38:09job is over
38:10this is why
38:10we were there
38:11and that
38:12is the
38:13time when
38:13I think
38:14Pakistan will
38:15be per
38:15force able
38:16to stop
38:16because during
38:17these three
38:18days whether
38:19this is the
38:19Chinese whether
38:20it is the
38:21Americans all
38:22of them will
38:22be intervening
38:23to stop this
38:24and India will
38:25be legitimately
38:26you know in a
38:27position to stop
38:28that should be
38:30our major
38:30objective how
38:31do we take
38:32them out
38:32okay so you
38:34are now getting
38:35into a zone
38:35where you think
38:36okay enough
38:36damage has been
38:37done let's
38:38now pull back
38:39so how do we
38:40get to that
38:40let's come to
38:41stage six in
38:42this war game
38:43this is where
38:44the CDS and
38:46the army chief
38:46tell the
38:47integrated battle
38:48group that's
38:48gone into
38:49Pakistan that
38:49enough is
38:50enough you
38:50don't need to
38:51go any further
38:52stop where you
38:53are so that's
38:55the message that
38:56goes out to the
38:57troops of 15-20
38:57kilometers across
38:58the international
38:59border they
39:00stop after that
39:02you know we
39:03do some missile
39:04tests like the
39:05Agni 2
39:05intermediate
39:06ballistic missile
39:07tested for
39:08signaling for
39:09posture tested
39:10from a coastal
39:11site in the
39:12bay of Bengal
39:12India also
39:13puts its
39:13nuclear forces
39:14on a heightened
39:15state of alert
39:16that if you do
39:17saber-attling
39:18India will
39:19too and our
39:20air acids are
39:21then dispersed
39:22these are dispersed
39:23because you don't
39:23want to have them
39:24all lined up on
39:25one runway for
39:26Pakistan to be
39:27able to strike
39:27you want them
39:28to be dispersed
39:29so that it
39:30becomes that much
39:30tougher so even
39:31if Pakistan
39:31strikes at an
39:32air base and
39:33if that strike
39:33is successful
39:34you don't have
39:35massive damage
39:37to our squadrons
39:38because you've
39:39got Rafales
39:39we've got
39:39some of the
39:40more advanced
39:41squadrons you
39:42want to ensure
39:42that you can
39:43keep them safe
39:44now Pakistan
39:45also by now
39:46is facing the
39:47pressure because
39:47this is where
39:48it's getting
39:48really really hot
39:49Pakistan then
39:51you know
39:52just for the
39:53time being
39:53tries to
39:54escalate its
39:54nuclear signaling
39:55trying to pull
39:57back from the
39:58brink as it
39:59were it says
40:01let's try and
40:02bring in
40:02international
40:03support let's
40:04involve the
40:04Chinese let's
40:05involve the
40:05Iranians let's
40:06try and tell the
40:07Americans to talk
40:07some good sense
40:08into India
40:09they're basically
40:10trying to get
40:11the army to
40:12back off
40:13Pakistan then
40:15ultimately announces
40:16a unilateral
40:16ceasefire in the
40:17Punjab sector
40:18and that's
40:20where things
40:21stand in
40:22state six
40:22because the
40:23key is moving
40:24up the
40:24escalation ladder
40:25in a way that
40:28you choose and
40:29then being able
40:30to control the
40:31matrix of
40:31escalation and
40:33then General
40:33Ghulkarani
40:34actually pull
40:34back from the
40:35brink
40:35even if we
40:37were to raise
40:38the escalation
40:39ladder and
40:40if a ceasefire
40:41was to go
40:41where there is
40:42no decision
40:43coming up
40:44because the
40:44aim of going
40:46to war was
40:47to ensure that
40:48there would
40:48be no terrorism
40:49here and
40:50after because
40:50this is
40:51do you think
40:51so far enough
40:52messaging has
40:52been done
40:52to ensure
40:53that
40:53we've done
40:54enough but
40:55probably yes
40:56Pakistan at
40:57this point of
40:57time would
40:58have come under
40:59tremendous
40:59pressure and
41:00there would be
41:00international
41:01pressure also
41:01to on
41:02Pakistan and
41:03also on
41:03India that
41:04ceasefire would
41:05be a better
41:05alternative rather
41:07than going
41:07nuclear or rather
41:08than going beyond
41:09certain things in
41:11which Pakistan
41:11starts feeling
41:12threatened of
41:13its very
41:13existence as
41:15if Pakistan
41:16feels threatened
41:17and does it
41:17have that kind
41:18of a depth
41:18it knows
41:19that should
41:20it do
41:20something so
41:21drastically wrong
41:22it's likely
41:23to get wiped
41:23out and in
41:24that case
41:25India will not
41:26hesitate to
41:26use it
41:27so it would
41:28best preferred
41:29is unilateral
41:30ceasefire
41:31yes but again
41:32as I said
41:32at the end
41:33of it the aim
41:34of this entire
41:36thing would have
41:37to be wipe out
41:38and ensure
41:39Pakistan does
41:40not indulge
41:40from my
41:42perspective
41:43Pakistan's
41:44challenge is to
41:45ensure that the
41:46match is drawn
41:46there is even
41:48Stevens
41:48India's challenge
41:50is to ensure
41:51that we
41:52land a knockout
41:55blow so we
41:56can claim victory
41:57and the Pakistani
41:58force mentality
41:59is to try and
42:01ensure like they
42:02got Abhinandan
42:02Vartuman that
42:04the match is
42:05drawn that
42:05that's the
42:06challenge Park
42:06wants to ensure
42:07a draw India
42:08wants to ensure
42:08victory
42:09it's a high
42:13stakes gamble
42:14it's a high
42:14stakes poker
42:15game
42:15so who blinks
42:16first
42:17so here I'd
42:18just like to go
42:18back to the
42:19last
42:19sorry
42:24no problem
42:25no problem
42:25sir
42:25the last stage
42:27you see
42:28if you read
42:30Pakizari
42:32people writing
42:34in the newspapers
42:35and in different
42:36think tanks
42:37they feel
42:40that if they
42:40use tactical
42:41nuclear weapons
42:42India will
42:43not retaliate
42:45massively
42:45those India's
42:47doctrine is
42:47that they
42:47will retaliate
42:49massively
42:49they don't
42:50believe that
42:50they think
42:51the international
42:52community would
42:53not allow
42:53a response
42:55to a tactical
42:57nuclear attack
42:57on an IBS
42:59to let's say
43:00wipe out
43:00law or
43:01Karachi
43:01they don't
43:03believe that
43:03you know
43:04that's a
43:05very dangerous
43:06kind of
43:09perception
43:09which is
43:10there but
43:10I just
43:11wanted to
43:11bring that
43:12factor in
43:13now for
43:14Pakistan
43:15they cannot
43:17be seen
43:18as having
43:19blinked
43:19first
43:20so it
43:22will have
43:23to be a
43:24simultaneous
43:25arrangement
43:27through back
43:28channels
43:29through the
43:29intervention of
43:30US and
43:32China
43:32to ensure
43:34that the
43:34blinking is
43:36done by
43:36both countries
43:37at the same
43:37time
43:37short of
43:39that
43:39Pakistan
43:40will
43:40continue
43:41going up
43:41the escalation
43:42ladder
43:42okay
43:44understood
43:45let's now
43:45come to
43:46state
43:46seven
43:46where we're
43:47now basically
43:48dialing back
43:49India says
43:50enough has
43:51been done
43:51we've taught
43:52Pakistan a
43:53lesson
43:53hopefully a
43:53lesson they'll
43:54remember like
43:54the lesson of
43:55the liberation
43:56of Bangladesh
43:57a lesson which
43:58puts them in
43:58their place and
43:59tells them that
44:00terror is
44:00unacceptable
44:01after India
44:02thinks these
44:02mission objectives
44:03have been
44:04achieved
44:04when India
44:05agrees to a
44:06ceasefire
44:07offensive operations
44:08are stopped
44:09in state
44:10seven and
44:11that really
44:11then is
44:12India's
44:13posture in
44:14this seventh
44:15stage of
44:16this war game
44:17the Pakistanis
44:19on the other
44:19side you know
44:20they're also under
44:22pressure they don't
44:22want this to
44:23continue either so
44:24they also accept
44:24the ceasefire
44:25under pressure
44:26from the
44:27international
44:27community and
44:29park forces
44:29pull back from
44:31the forward
44:31positions that
44:32they've taken
44:32and the
44:33Nasser missiles
44:34that Pakistan
44:35had mobilized
44:36along the line
44:37of control
44:37and the
44:38international
44:38border are
44:39then brought
44:40back to
44:41base and
44:41basically an
44:42attempt is
44:43made to
44:44create a
44:45new calm
44:46in that
44:47military
44:48environment
44:48that's really
44:49the effort
44:50let's now
44:50come to
44:51stage eight
44:52which is
44:52where this
44:53particular
44:53operation
44:53then just
44:54dials down
44:55back channel
44:56talks lead
44:57to a mutual
44:57pullback of
44:58sorts in
44:59stage eight
45:00and you
45:01got India
45:01withdrawing
45:02its integrated
45:02battle group
45:03which has
45:03moved into
45:04Pakistan
45:05asking
45:06those forces
45:07to come
45:07back and
45:08then there
45:09is de-escalation
45:10that actually
45:11gets started
45:12so you've
45:12pulled your
45:13forces back
45:13you de-escalate
45:15and then you
45:16say okay
45:16we have won
45:18General Kulkarni
45:19the key then
45:20is really the
45:20point that you
45:21made
45:21have we done
45:22enough
45:23to ensure
45:25that this
45:25doesn't happen
45:26again have we
45:26done enough
45:27to ensure
45:27Pakistan learns
45:28a lesson
45:29well Rahul
45:31the way
45:32it's gone
45:32about
45:32and if
45:33we were
45:33to stop
45:34and not
45:35be able
45:35to really
45:36destroy
45:37Pakistan
45:37and to
45:38prevent
45:39because
45:39after all
45:40terrorism
45:40can only
45:41stop
45:41if
45:42the
45:42terror
45:43which
45:44emanates
45:44the source
45:45of the
45:45terror
45:45has to
45:46be destroyed
45:46and
45:47subsequently
45:48it has to
45:49be deterred
45:49that it
45:49does not
45:50indulge in it
45:51if
45:51by this
45:52what we've
45:52done
45:53if the
45:54war is to
45:55stop
45:55we haven't
45:56really
45:56actually
45:56crossed
45:57and not
45:57gone
45:57beyond
45:58Pakistan
45:59at the
45:59end of
45:59it
46:00would
46:00still
46:00continue
46:00with
46:01terrorism
46:01and that
46:02is
46:02what
46:02that
46:03is
46:03the
46:03key
46:03from
46:06an
46:06Indian
46:06intelligence
46:07perspective
46:08that you
46:08had
46:10Uri
46:10you had
46:11Balakot
46:11they deterred
46:12Pakistan
46:12for a
46:13period
46:13but then
46:14the
46:14deterrence
46:14just ran
46:15out
46:15so this
46:16time
46:16you have
46:17to do
46:18enough
46:18to ensure
46:19that they
46:19learn a
46:19lesson
46:20forever
46:20like they
46:20did with
46:21the
46:21splitting up
46:22of
46:22Pakistan
46:22into
46:23two
46:23East
46:23and West
46:23Pakistan
46:24became
46:24Bangladesh
46:25how do
46:26you ensure
46:26that this
46:26they learn
46:27without it
46:28going nuclear
46:28that they
46:29learn this
46:30lesson
46:30for good
46:31the only
46:33way to do
46:34it that if
46:35during this
46:35entire escalation
46:37our key
46:38objectives
46:38of hitting
46:39at those
46:40terror bases
46:41we do not
46:42lose sight of
46:43and that's why
46:44the airstrikes
46:45would be very
46:46very important
46:46and if those
46:48who's at those
46:49terror bases
46:51even if there
46:52is a terror
46:52bases which
46:53Raw and IB
46:54can point out
46:54this is where
46:55these terror
46:56bases are
46:56we've already
46:57seen in
46:57Balakot once
46:58they're in a
46:58state of
46:58high alert
46:59they start
46:59moving the
47:00terrorists out
47:00especially the
47:00high value
47:01targets
47:01I'm talking
47:02about the
47:03high value
47:03targets
47:04in the
47:05terror bases
47:05because
47:06now they're
47:08in some
47:09village or
47:09some town
47:10they're in
47:10the middle
47:11of a lot
47:11of civilian
47:12population
47:12I'm not
47:14I'm not
47:14talking
47:14that's why
47:15that's why
47:16I'm saying
47:16with the
47:17help of the
47:18intelligence
47:18and you know
47:19what I mean
47:20with the
47:20friendly countries
47:21if we are
47:22able to
47:23get the
47:24high value
47:24targets in
47:25some house
47:26or the other
47:27like the
47:28UAV drones
47:29of United States
47:30has been doing
47:31in all over the
47:32world
47:32Afghanistan
47:33Iraq
47:33everywhere
47:34what you're
47:37saying is
47:38correct
47:38but when
47:39the
47:39Abbottabad
47:40takedown
47:40happened
47:41the
47:42Americans
47:43had a lot
47:44of
47:44deployment
47:45of Intel
47:47assets
47:47Techint
47:47which is
47:48technical
47:48intelligence
47:49human
47:49intelligence
47:50Tilak
47:50Devishwar
47:51because of
47:51their
47:51interest
47:52in
47:52Afghanistan
47:53now that
47:54they've
47:54pulled out
47:54of Afghanistan
47:55I would
47:55imagine
47:56that they've
47:56also pulled
47:56back
47:57on the
47:57presence
47:58of the
47:58human
47:59intelligence
47:59assets
47:59that they
48:00had
48:00on the
48:01ground
48:01they may
48:01have
48:01some
48:01techint
48:02assets
48:03up in
48:05the
48:05skies
48:05but a lot
48:06of the
48:06human
48:07boots
48:07on the
48:07ground
48:07they
48:07could have
48:08pulled
48:08back
48:08so do you
48:09think the
48:10Americans
48:10can help
48:10India
48:11the way
48:11they did
48:12when Osama bin Laden
48:14was taken
48:14down
48:15difficult to say
48:19they could
48:20support in
48:22terms of
48:22intelligence
48:23and satellite
48:23in monitoring
48:24and things
48:25like that
48:25but you
48:25know in
48:26the case
48:26of Pakistan
48:26so long
48:29as the
48:29Pakistan
48:30army
48:30is not
48:31hit
48:31you don't
48:32reach the
48:33head
48:33of the
48:33snake
48:34destroying
48:35a few
48:35terror
48:36camps
48:36destroying
48:36a few
48:37leaders
48:38even people
48:39like Hafiz
48:40Saeed
48:40and the
48:42Jais chief
48:43Pakistan
48:44army is
48:44not going
48:45to be
48:45like
48:45water
48:46of
48:46ducks
48:46so if
48:47there is
48:47to be
48:47a target
48:48on a
48:49Pak
48:49army
48:49personnel
48:50who do
48:51you think
48:51it would
48:51be
48:51would it
48:52be
48:52for example
48:52someone
48:53like a
48:53major
48:53Samir
48:54in the
48:5426-11
48:55context
48:55who
48:56planned
48:56that
48:57particular
48:57terror
48:57attack
48:58in this
48:58case
48:58or do
48:59you think
48:59you go
49:00up
49:00to someone
49:01in the
49:01ISI
49:02potentially
49:02the
49:02DGISI
49:03or do
49:04you make
49:04a go
49:04for
49:05the
49:06Pak
49:06army
49:06chief
49:07like
49:07the
49:07Americans
49:08and the
49:08Israelis
49:09did
49:09with
49:10the
49:10Iranian
49:10Republican
49:11guards
49:11but here
49:13again
49:13you see
49:13it's not
49:14individual
49:14it's not
49:14personnel
49:15you have
49:17to like
49:17after the
49:1871 war
49:18when
49:20the army
49:21itself was
49:21discredited
49:22having lost
49:23half the
49:24country
49:24the repetition
49:24of the
49:25Pakistan
49:25army
49:26was really
49:27down in
49:28the boots
49:28here too
49:29I think
49:30India can
49:31claim
49:31victory
49:31and feel
49:33rest assured
49:34if the
49:35Pakistan
49:35army
49:36is degraded
49:37to such
49:37an extent
49:38that they
49:39will find
49:39it very
49:40difficult
49:40to get
49:42up again
49:43for some
49:43time
49:44unless and
49:45until that
49:46happens
49:46killing of
49:47terrorists
49:48terrorist
49:48camps
49:48leadership
49:49I don't
49:50think
49:50it will
49:51make much
49:52of a
49:52difference
49:52to Pakistan
49:53the
49:55general
49:56messen
49:56from
49:57Pakistan's
49:58perspective
49:58how do
49:59they achieve
49:59de-escalation
50:00and ceasefire
50:01in your
50:01view
50:02Rahul
50:03whatever
50:03has been
50:04described
50:04I agree
50:05to that
50:06this is
50:06possible
50:07de-escalation
50:07etc
50:08But if you really analyze in the overall context, Pakistan's biggest fear, as an army general, Pakistan general, the biggest fear today would be their western borders.
50:19That is what India should exploit.
50:22You know, the Balochistan and the TTP and the Afghan Taliban.
50:26So you're saying don't attack from where they're expecting, come in from where they don't expect.
50:30Exactly. For Pakistan, you have to do something so different that they should not, where they expect the least, that is what the strategy, Indian strategy should be.
50:39And now with air-to-air refuelers, with these long-range unmanned aerial vehicles, those kind of attacks are possible, unlike in the past.
50:45Absolutely, it is possible. And it will embolden these Balochistan Liberation Army, TTP, etc., because our strategy should be to break up Pakistan into four pieces.
50:56And it is possible. If everything starts happening from there, see, imagine the Pakistan Army Chief's plight today.
51:02Indus Water Treaty, this is going to impact these normal civilians of Pakistan. They will be uprising.
51:08But is the Pak Army Chief who brought this upon him, he pretty much signaled the Pahlgham attack in that speech he made to, you know, expert Pakistanis.
51:15No, very true. See, he has not realized the consequences. See, Pakistan, the biggest problem is that...
51:22No, he can't be so stupid not to realize the consequences. That's impossible.
51:24When Munir said what he did, he knew what was... It's almost like the Hamas mentality.
51:29Rahul, I agree.
51:29You go in, you do October 7th.
51:31Yeah.
51:31You know what's coming because you think that's good for you.
51:34Yeah, but let me tell you, by and large, some of them are very brash.
51:37They don't realize the consequences and here the consequences are, firstly, in the Pakistan Army itself, there is a lot of internal dissent.
51:46Don't be surprised if some of their mid-level or low-level officers can stage some kind of a mutiny.
51:51Anything is possible because after the...
51:53No, but the mutiny is more likely by the radicals, the jihadis, the extremists, rather than by the sensible people.
51:58No, even by the sensible people because, see, he is not liked as the chief. These are harsh realities.
52:04How do you know he is not liked as the chief?
52:05No, these are... We have been also reading and all these kind of things. Generally, you can make it out...
52:10Do you think, Tilak Devishwar, that General Munir has overplayed his hand because he's really landed the entire Pakistani nation, the political establishment and the Pakistani people in a mess which is not of their making.
52:22It suited Munir but didn't suit the people of Pakistan, what he's brought upon them.
52:26I agree with that. In fact, I've said it on several shows that the speech that he made on 22nd April to the Pakistan Overseas Convention was the first step in his campaign to get, as we discussed yesterday, to become Army Chief, get an extension.
52:44The Pahlkam attack is the next step. And in fact, there is this Pakistani major who's a dissident. He's come on record, I think, yesterday, and he said that the intelligence he has received from Pakistan is that this operation was approved by General Munir himself of Pahlkam.
53:03So the other people are saying that you have riled up India and given what Prime Minister Modi has said, unimaginable consequences, people are saying,
53:14that just for the sake of your extension, you're willing to risk the entire country. So his popularity is at a pretty low end.
53:22Sure. And he's brought upon a lot of uncertainty upon his nation and his people. But that's just the way the Park Army's track record has been.
53:32This is where I wrap up this war game. You know, the idea really wasn't to fearmonger but to give you a sense in a realistic context of what to expect
53:43and what's going on in the minds of military planners. Just to say, tordo, pordo, aang tordo, it doesn't make sense.
53:49You know, let's try and put it in a sensible military context so we understand how things move up the escalation ladder once that Indian response comes.
53:59And the amazing thing is that the Prime Minister has signalled as clearly as can be that an Indian response is coming.
54:07The Pakistanis know it. The Indian military has planned many times over through the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, the intelligence capabilities that we have,
54:16what to do in precisely this scenario. These are going to be troubling days and weeks, but these will be action-packed days.
54:26And as General Kulkarni said, the key is to strike so hard that it's not just one blow.
54:32It is a message that is served to the Park Army, the ISI and the Pakistani political establishment and the country's people
54:40that enough is enough. Terrorism in any form and shape is simply unacceptable.
54:49Tilak Deveshwar, Yashor Vardhan Azhar, General Kulkarni and General Messner.
54:55For taking out time and joining me on the news track and for being a part of this war game, thank you very much.
55:03I think our viewers would have appreciated your insights as you help them make sense of what to expect when the Indian attack begins.
55:12For your time and your trust, thank you very much. Bye and good night.
55:17Bye and good night.
55:17Bye.
55:39Bye.